and we fly in orbits, unwinding paths, embroidered with meteorites, space, and truth courage, cosmic music, our business conversation floats in, in some kind of matte haze, the earth in the porthole, the evening is not an early dawn. and the son of sadness is on his mother, and the son of sadness is on his mother, the son’s aunt is the mother, and the sons are the earth, we don’t dream of the roar of the cosmodrome, it’s not this icy blue, we have grass, grass near the house. green green grass.

hello, happy new year everyone, this is the easy money podcast, and i’m its host, mikhail khanov, today we have... we have such an unusual

new year's, one might say, a festive magical theme, we will figure out what forecasts, what tools will help you find financial well-being, and most importantly, is it worth trusting these forecasts, these various trends, predictions, and today our guests, kiseleva, hello olga, and ilya korovin, trader... financial analyst with summer experience, hello ilya, good evening, our topic is absolutely amazing, but since we’re in a new year’s mood, i don’t want to talk about too serious topics at this time, then let’s still talk about why forecasts are so important in our lives, which forecasts to believe, where to get information, well , let’s start with you, olga, because you , as a person directly involved in what is published, and in which ones. .. circulation and

most importantly, what is being bought, i think that first of all you own all the trends, tell us how interesting the topic of esotericism is in demand now? the topic of esotericism is now really in great demand, and if the trend began to move somewhere around 2020, then over the last year it reached its peak, now you can notice that in the publication of books on esotericism, and this is me...

something so interesting, beautiful, aesthetic, on the other hand, it is an opportunity to seize for something that could theoretically help you deal with a difficult situation, well, tell me, it’s just a tool, that is, you know what it ’s called, we printed tarot cards, yes, as far as i understand, the most popular printing products are precisely the tarot card, which has already been issued suits, it’s just some kind of tool that was printed out and given and what’s called figure it out yourself and... to a greater extent there

are also some instructions, some texts, some descriptions, yes, because how do you compete from the online platform, yes, because i know that just recently. psychologists, psychoanalysts, yes, who offer their own methods for working with these cards, and our product in any case and other publishers, yes, this is not about telling yourself some kind of future, success or something else, but what then this is for try to formulate questions, a competent

question is already half the answer, and the cards help you ask this question, who to ask this question to yourself.

for support, well, i’ll correct it a little, it seems to me, for external forces, when a person lacks inner strength, inner confidence, he draws strength from somewhere outside, so we get this whole set, tarot cards, retrograde mercury , esotericism of everything, of every kind, including here i include the mythology that in the market you can predict the future and on this forecast making money, this is also part of mythology, namely to predict, yes, and we... must understand the first thing that any forecast that we give in life on the market, in principle, is a matter of predicting the future, yes, this is not just some here is a number, the future is largely shaped by events that have not yet happened, and we can analyze all the events that we already know at the

moment, if we are talking about markets, yes, we can be an excellent financier, analyst, we can fully calculate everything that has already happened and give a certain scenario, how they will influence future price movements. but literally tomorrow a new event will happen that we simply did not know about, it will break all our cards. well, speaking in mathematical language, the probability of any event is not one hundred percent, yes, as i say , it’s beyond 100% - that’s it, there is the only event that will happen with one hundred percent probability - this is human mortality, yes, which we know due to our coordinate system , here i would really like to continue with olga, the question is, this is what you think, olga, how much do you... and that is you stand as competitors to all the numerous bloggers, video bloggers, releasing printed materials, even more tools, how are you positioned, here is the publishing house, how are you positioning yourself in this, in all this fuss? we do not consider ourselves

competitors and we do not consider astrologers, competitors of publishers, we are indeed different entities, and we have different functions, but let’s start with the fact that not a single publisher, at least a large one... he does not consider tarot as a forecasting tool or a fortune-telling tool, which is even worse, but we still we consider this as a tool of self-knowledge, in this we radically diverge from the request that a torologist often comes to, everyone comes to a torologist for a magic pill, that’s not all, but there is definitely such a percentage, yes, yes, that is, we are not talking about a magic pill exactly. that’s why i said that we often involve psychologists in creating decks in order to convey this expertise as more competent and correct than just poking, that is , in fact, you position the tarot cards with everything

connected with them, and not only the tarot, as some kind of psychological work of a person with himself, or with an expert, is everything possible, you know, we know numerous courses about success, but there you will become an entrepreneur in 5 hours, not all people are capable of how to become entrepreneurs, also not all people are able to engage in introspection, what is the trend now, what are you on...

these platforms, on video streams, on just some periodic videos, that is , they act as conductors of visual content, or is there still a trend left , what the printed word also has a very strong influence on people’s minds, an excellent question, and here it depends on the position of the publishing house, and some publishers just find such specialists, major bloggers, esotericists, astrologers, and so on, and come to them... with a request, let's publish a book, in this case it is a commercial product, and we, for example,

do not follow this path, so we do not use this approach, and astrologers, tarologists and others themselves can actually publish some kind of books, in my opinion, right here responsibility falls on the publisher, whom he takes his publishing portfolio from, whom he offers under his brand, under his name, his responsibility, and further to the reader-buyer. well, because, well , if i were a marketing director, an astrologer or an esotericist, i would tell a very beautiful story that right now you will listen to a webinar there or a stream of such and such an author of such and such books on this topic, that is, i still think that people of our generation, our level of education, it’s important for them that there are also books, that is, a book is a kind of wow, a book.

this is the easy money podcast, me and its host , mikhail khanov. today we are talking about the role of forecasts in achieving financial well-being. ilya, according to your practice, what forecasts come true more often, obtained with the help of esotericism, yes, let’s call it something general , tarot cards, some kind of fortune-telling, horoscopes, something else, or some serious economic forecasts that are issued there is a central bank and... well-known economists and are they even coming true? let me return it to you

a bit of a question, right? what do we mean by forecast? in fact , the confusion already begins here, well, for example, yes, i can give you a forecast that the ruble-dollar, which is probably clear to all our viewers, yes, an understandable beige instrument, now it costs 92 rubles. i give you a forecast that with a 99% probability, it will fluctuate between 1 ruble and a thousand rubles, this is not a forecast, not why? you can’t make money on this forecast, right, but why can’t you make money? because he's too open now, there's no direction, yeah, probably okay, i’m giving you another forecast, the dollar exchange rate will rise, you can make money on this , but you can’t either, because we don’t know where it will go up or down first, why it’s plus, and we also don’t know how long it will take to grow, but that’s what i’m talking about i say, for example, when we mostly hear some kind of forecast, it usually does not have very important components, a full-fledged forecast on which one could make money should look like.

can be used, you can make money on it, in general, it can be considered correct, well , i think that if you apply your technology and your definition of prognosis, 99%. still admit your mistakes when you gave the wrong forecast, but you lose your audience, or in other words, flock, yes, from the point of view of tarot readers and those who deal with esotericism, because two or three times you didn’t guess everything

, the one who makes predictions makes money from the forecast, which cannot be caught at his word, roughly speaking, here... not accurate, yes, which we talked about, even accurate 99% of it will not come true, even inaccurate, it seems to have come true, but your flock did not make money on it, but nevertheless you you will have a reputation as a person whose forecasts come true, so i can again throw out a bunch of such forecasts that will come true, but no one will be able to use it, so a forecast is in most cases a deceit, from those who deal with them professionally, who gives them, another question is the problem of those who consume them, because the person who... went to the stock exchange and wants to get a forecast, he is no longer right, he no longer understands why he came to the stock exchange, the one who makes money on the stock exchange takes the right actions that lead to earnings, and not the one who a predicts, b , listening to other people's forecasts, and so on and so on, believes tarot cards, and any other esotericism and seeks help from the outside, which makes the profession

of a trader unique, maybe not unique, but very different from the majority, that's all. depends only on the person , a trader is a type of entrepreneur, but a special entrepreneur, what is common, he is the owner of a business, yes, that is, a trader risks his money, like an entrepreneur, he does not have a boss, like an entrepreneur, but then things start to get interesting, he has no subordinates, no clients, no partners , no lessors, no sesses, no, i’ll finish, which is very important, yes, that is, the trader understands that all responsibility rests only with him. an entrepreneur, even if he went bankrupt , he can say, my subordinates did a bad job there, my partner set me up, something has changed there, the trader hasn’t, if the trader lost money, only he is to blame, and this is a very difficult situation, psychologically, coming back again to what olga says, yes, a trader is an extremely complex psychological profession, where you are responsible for every step you take, if you are wrong, you lose money,

it’s not easy for you to complete your logical narrative, use any forecasts, it’s simple. it’s anti-logical to shift responsibility, shift responsibility onto anyone else, so you’re no longer a trader at this moment, great. olga, such an ironic, playful question: do you, as the editor-in-chief of a publishing house, use tarot cards or other forecasts in order to predict trends and tendencies in reader demand, that is, well, well, here you are compiling your portfolio for the next year, you sometimes throw out cards that you yourself release, what will be in demand, what is not, i am not. but i personally know a person, though not from the publishing industry, who prepared his analysis using a tarot deck, oh well , believe me, he helped the person, his analysis of which, excuse me, of his business strategy, his analysis for our audience is a four-factor full analysis of a situation of weakness , strength, opportunities for vulnerability, yes

so he laid out the strategy according to tarot cards, this is indeed an approximate forecast. it comes true just like any other , so, well, it helped, because it happened, well, like in that famous joke, when a woman is asked what is the probability that you will meet a dinosaur when you go out on the street of st. petersburg, she says 50 %, either i will meet you or i won’t meet you, well, because in fact, speaking seriously, well, ilya, you will understand me as a person close to mathematics and economics, as a mathematician, any phrase said that most likely, well, most likely in... all this is simply about nothing, yes, even if you say that with a probability of 98% it will be, as well, let’s say your example, and the ruble exchange rate in a week without moving down, it will not be there i know 95 will reach this level without moving down, on such a horizon, this is the number, if this does not happen, i can say, but it was 98%,

those same two worked, well, mathematicians will understand me, the distant ones worked statistical distant quantiles in... yes, a very long time ago, i was not impressed, for themselves yourself or with the help of some professional, because there is some, no, for yourself, without some professional. lya

, such a question, do you yourself think that making forecasts in such a complex matter as trading, yes, that is, private traders, non-private traders, institutions, forecasts - is it good or bad, or are there some others? alternatives than either laying out the tarot every day, or reading, i don’t know, a news feed, and putting something together from this, that is, in trading, how it works? well, in certain cases , in rare forecasts, after all, well, it’s not that it works, but it has a fundamental basis; in general, you can make certain informed assumptions that the price will most likely go there with such and such a probability , and so on, well in addition to long-term forecasts, which are difficult to make money on, nevertheless there are... occasionally situations in the market when the so-called probabilistic bias actually arises, most often these are crises, why they say that a crisis is opportunities, including for traders, yes,

because during a crisis a situation occurs when you can say the following with a very high degree of probability, well, the direction of the price in the short term, but not in the long term, just in the short term, this is not a prediction of the crisis , as many people think, and this is exactly what happens after a crisis, a crisis. it is extremely difficult to predict and almost no one knows how to do this, if you predict, it is usually by accident, then these people reap the benefits for a very long time, but cannot repeat this success, the next they don’t predict a crisis, but when a crisis has already happened, bet that everything will return, the fall will end with growth, this is a very probabilistic story, because 99% of crises end with subsequent growth, but what’s the problem is that the crisis happens rarely and it... dictates to you the moment when the forecast works, yes, that is, a crisis has occurred, and you say, oh, now a situation has arisen when i can give a forecast, but basically people look for forecasts every day, if there’s

a moment here, i’ll interrupt you, that as i said in its time rockefeller, that you need to buy shares when blood is shed on the streets, when you are committing illogical actions, that is , unnatural, like turning the steering wheel on a rear-wheel drive car towards a skid yes... and so on, there are a number of actions that may seem illogical, but nevertheless lead to a positive result. is there such a thing that many traders use forecasts, esotericism, yes, the same layouts, just to strengthen their opinion. so they bet on some event, and they, for example, are quite self-confident, they have a good level of self-awareness, they know how to analyze themselves, they are confident that they did everything right, this is this additional situation. with esotericism, it helps them strengthen their self-confidence, then yes, conditionally, yes, but you said a very important thing, first of all , it’s about the trader himself, yes, in how he treats the market and how he treats himself in

the market, that is, he is confident in himself, he does not shift responsibility to anyone, he gives the forecast himself, and did not spy on it somewhere someone listened to the signals there, and then this forecast further strengthens his confidence, but it is very important not just how confident he is, how much his forecast will work, it is very important. what will he do on the market, because the forecast itself, even a forecast that has come true, even your forecast, is not a fact that will bring you money, what matters is how you act, that is, look at a very key point, i can even show you with an example, for example, covid, and the last major crisis that occurred in all markets, the whole world found itself in a situation in which he had never been , that is, countries are closing, lockdowns, and so on, it was a severe blow to the economies of all countries there, and what happened, let’s say, the day before... looks like the snp index, which i know mikhail , you are trading, yes , the american key index, it’s like the main index of the entire world economy, on the eve of covid, it was there for about two, about

3,000, yes, it was something like 2800, suppose you say on the eve of covid forecast that by the end of the twentieth year, yes, that is, the index will grow by 20%. after that covid happens, the index collapses, and then... by the end of the year it still returns and grows by that 20%. did your prediction come true or not? well , in the context of what we discussed, it certainly didn’t come true, but if we take a trader who is absolutely confident in his abilities and who bet on this forecast and just waited and waited, he didn’t do the wrong thing, yes, because mainly those people who work with forecasts, their dichotomy is very strict: if the forecast is fulfilled, you’re right, you take the profit, and if the price goes against you, you... are right, take a loss, that’s the problem, but it’s not that the forecast came true or didn’t come true, it’s that you don’t wait for it to come true and take a loss in the situation like this the unforced

one you're talking to, right? you turn the steering wheel in the wrong direction, yes, this is the easy money podcast, i’m its host, mikhail khanov, today we have a very interesting, new year’s mystical topic, forecasts, how accurately they come true, whether you should believe them and whether you should use them on the path to achieving financial well-being ? back to the topic covid, olga, in fact, what ilya said is one thing, how it related and how it related to stock price indices, market collapses and so on, but it was the twentieth year that actually became such a point of growth for all publishing houses in the production of these products , in tarot cards, in the literature around this, this is due to the fact that the level of uncertainty, self-doubt has increased sharply, what do you think? yes, publishers know that as soon as the level of uncertainty grows, people begin to look for all sorts of support, yes, therefore yes and

esotericism began to grow.

a bright, well at least economic future awaits, olga, is this true or not? no, this is a very long process, publishing activity, it is postponed from the event for a rather long period of time, what, at least 6 months, but most often it is a year, or even a year and a half, so in the twentieth year an event happened, yes, something happened, and we are now seeing obvious growth, well, we have seen growth after all, based on the numbers you cited in twenty.

that people have become more confident and expect more from you are not specific, up or down, yes, but the request for tools, well , you and i understand that there is a huge number, especially in the area in which you work, yes, these are derivatives, these are complex tools, this futures, options , there is a very big demand for tools, right now, in your opinion, is there some kind of change, yes, what do people, what do people ask, they ask, we don’t need all this up or down,

where does it go? or... after all, people want to learn in order to become, well, master this the profession of stock exchange trader, the absolute majority, now, in the past, in the future , unfortunately, will turn upside down, this is how the system works, this is how psychology works, people are looking for simple answers, but complex questions, give him the loot button, that’s the button the loot , yes, that is, where will it go, i simply cut off these people , i ban them, i say, if you don’t want to study, you don’t come to me, there are a huge number of telegram channels where they will show you...

again, you shift the responsibility to some higher strength, but that is why among traders, unfortunately, there will always be a very big demand for all these things, yes, olga, please note in the circulation release that one of your many audiences, it is in stock trading and these are not our audience, yes, yes, but tools, i will explain why, because traders, they are well-versed , they are supposedly economists, they have their own gods, well, relatively speaking , yes, their own esotericism, their idols, this is the main idol... these people in the financial markets, in which you can believe, yes, it’s like, this is a technical analysis of markets, this is what it’s like a special thing, i will say for our audience, this is a belief, i call it religion, which is some kind of mathematical statistical fluctuations

in graphs and prices, well, yes, mathematics is included in this, but i treat this as precisely esotericism, the belief that in the chart of the past you can see its future, this is like a kind of tarot card in the stock market. yes, that’s why those who trade on the stock exchange do not stoop to such very obvious, yes, esoteric teachings, such as cartaro and so on, but in fact, replacing their technical analysis, they are doing exactly the same thing, interesting, amazing, well, you and i understand that any sane person too, i think he will agree with us, that if this were so, if looking at the chart and if to invest a sufficient amount of money, and even with the help of modern technologies, to analyze it, if this were so, then i think that the huge global financial institutions, world banks that invest tens of billions of dollars in r&d, research and development,

development and study of markets, i think that they would have all been enriched long ago, but since this is not happening, we are talking about the fact that all the information that is actually needed is information that... with the help of self-development of the trader, with with the help of those tools of books, not even tarot cards , it is really for personal growth, when a person works with himself, he strengthens his, first of all, emotional spirit and emotional health, i think that this is precisely the secret of success, the guarantee that any information which you will consume, it will be correct and will ultimately lead to financial well-being, i would formulate it this way: you need... to work with what you can work with, but by and large , in the market all this is very clearly visible, there is a trader and there is a market, there is nothing else, when we talk about market analysis, about technical analysis of the market, any other market analysis, about forecasts, we are trying to work with a market that has absolutely

nothing to do with us, it lives its own life, we cannot you really need to influence him work with yourself, with your actions , which will lead to profit no matter how the market behaves, this is where olga and i seem to agree, this is motivational literature, but you can approach it in different ways... rush around, but this is the right direction , that is, this is where psychology goes, and psychoanalysis, there is also classical frey, well, i ’m a trader with thirty years of experience, yes, as you already said, but i’m 25 years old because of this experience, i’m quite closely immersed in psychology, because the key to making money on the stock exchange is not through mathematics, not through finance and not through - and not through forecasts, not through territorial science, but through psychology, through working with yourself, that is, you need to work with what you can work with, we can work with ourselves. with our reactions to the market, yes, with our reactions in a crisis, we fight in the market with greed and fear, these two emotions, they are ours, and we can work with them, why should we deal with a market that has nothing to do with us? relationships, work with your reactions in this market, another very quick

example, i often give trading analogies sports, they coincide in many ways, but in sports, imagine that you are a weightlifter, you need to lift a barbell, and in order to lift it, you begin to study it, what material is it made of?

such an interesting conversation, i wish you to always guess with tarot cards without tarot cards the preferences of your readers' requests to always be in trend, well, actually for you ilyazhil. more than one thing - it is more often than successful stock exchange trades to be in the trend, and not to stand against it, and thereby increasing your own well-being and showing by your example that trading is also a successful profession, in fact, independent of any esoteric retrograde mercury that entered the house of saturn or those above from it. thank you very much, thank you very much .

hello, dear friends, this is a podcast of jokes, and today our guest is a magnificent, wonderful, my great friend, people’s artist of the rsfsr, vladimir natanovich vinokur, i’m glad to welcome you, uncle vov, i can do this.

i’ll say that for me the new year for a long, long time was a super-family holiday, because on the new year it was my mother’s birthday, on the 31st for the first time, it’s january 1st , we always celebrated her birthday, never, you know what an artist she is, i didn’t work on new year’s day, my mother passed away, she left, so she’s still a little bit ahead of the steward didn't make it.

the new year missed a meal with his wife, he says , you know, the corporate party was a little late , he’s not crazy, he says it’s now the month of august , that’s why i’m in a hurry, i had an opportunity, i was born and raised in the city of kursk, so an artist like

mark bernes came to us for the new year holidays , well, i can’t get tickets to the city nothing, but the neighbors used to be, well, like relatives, you know, the doors are open, everyone came in, and i’m sitting by the christmas tree, it’s after the new year, i’m sorting out the toys, i’m 14 years old, i’m a laureate of a regional competition and i... they sent vartek from . by the way, yuri gagarin presented you with a gold medal in artek. the winner. but here is a photograph that i stole from... the photographer, unfortunately, it only exists, what kind of song, for the song, do the russians want war, then they are awarded as a laureate of the international arttek competition, there are also foreigners they were all there, here at this award ceremony gagarin is sitting among the children, sitting, you can see

him directly, they enlarged everything for me, yes, in that photograph where he is for me, well, you understand that it wasn’t even there, and here i am. i exchanged it for a badge with a photographer, it’s a photograph, and i came from artek all proud, i saw gagarin, this and that, suddenly a neighbor, the doorbell rings, i open it, he says: volodka, come to me, there’s a surprise, i i go in, look, marbernes is sitting there, i’m stunned, i say, and he says, markusha and i studied together in kharkov technical school, here... this is my, as they say , friend since childhood, markusha, this same boy, my neighbor, laureate of the competition, and the region, he sang in artek, he is a singer, and mark naumovich says what he sang, i say ,

do the russians want war, come on, do the russians want war, he says, why are you yelling? they don’t want war, what are you doing, well, look, the christmas tree is standing, it’s just the new year, and you’re yelling, quietly, do the russians want war, you ask, be quiet, i’ve remembered this for the rest of my life, he also says, old man, your mutation will begin now, your voice will change after 15 years, you shut up, don’t shout too much, you have to wait until... i’m hungry, and i’m in this state all over, which means i can’t sing so as not to lose my voice, i can’t yell, and i remembered all this, and suddenly i’m serving in the army and there was a concert at dynamo on victory day, i see us behind the scenes there, i’m in

uniform, so i’m looking, mark bernes is sitting like that with a stick, can you imagine, i come up and say, marovich... decide to contact, he says, decide to start yelling, finally, i’m asking, why? i say, you know, i’m your neighbor, isakvich, shats, you studied with him in a technical school in kharkov, and i’m his neighbor, i sang to you, do the russians want war, and he says, he didn’t sing, he yelled, i remembered, i swear to you, my god, i’m so happy, i say, how are you, he says , better tell me how you are, i say, i’m finishing.

where two clowns performed in the program: yuri nikulin and mikhail shuidin, you were there for a long time in color, and you worked in color for two seasons, seventy-three, in short, i get there, the program was called dreams towards, then you know, there

were even circus programs on the topic, construction of kamaz, i went out and sang a song. when i was a child, i was bitten by a dog, well, this is a child’s fear, i told him, and they had a reprise with shuidin, my wife, tatyana, entered the arena.

nothing, we sewed this same one on shudinovskaya for you, on his pants, we also sewed cotton wool, nothing, well, it will bite a little, but don’t worry , everyone let’s go, they take me into the dressing room like this with their finger once, my nose is red, here and i see , that the hat is gone, and i’m sitting there all wet from the fact that i have a premonition that yes, it’s also a new year’s program about kamaz, but the new year with a christmas tree,

an interesting case, i had it too, i’m still winter, yes, yes, we have such a mood , winter, our guest tour was just lucky, wildly lucky, i’m still a young artist, suddenly muslim magamaev invites me to the united states on tour, he was traveling to a russian-speaking audience, from the state concert officially, that means he’s inviting me , and i'm going with muslim. you know, thanks to him, i began to sing, well, do the russians want war here, that’s all, i took it from tv,

from musli, well, yes, in short, we are on tour, we have a day off in the city, which is called, he is a parodist first of all , therefore, well, not primarily, in that number, so you clearly filmed the entire performance, by the way, muslim did the parodies perfectly, and he was not offended, i did a parody of him on a trip, at a concert. and he introduced me, very interesting shots, and in short, we had a day off, and there is a memorable photograph of muslim and me like this, which means muslim reigen, wife, this is, yeah, then i was the president, only i could do it, well , muslim is such an intelligent person, so refined in everything, so i could find it, only i was in an alley, find it. for 5 dollars on a cardboard regen with her husband, and muslim and i we stood up and took a picture, but you can’t imagine

that when we returned to moscow, there was no one who doubted that it was real, and why, because i told, i say, well, such a story, yes , we were called, well, new year’s affairs, there to the embassy, ​​they asked for a reception at the white house. they asked muslim to sing, i sang along, then his wife regina, he wanted to, yes, and he said, i am, he says, a fan of muslim magamaev, but can i take a photo with you, i say, stop, i say, she also invited her husband, she brought her husband, so muslim always said: “volodya, you are with me.” do you ever quarrel with your wife, she still sometimes asks, “what is your relationship with nancy?” no, well... well, it was funny, there’s this photograph, here are the new year’s concerts, these are still separate.