my subordinates did a bad job there, my partner set me up, something changed there , the trader didn’t, if the trader lost money, only he is to blame, and this is a very difficult situation psychologically, again returning to what olga says, yes, the trader is extremely it’s a complex psychological profession, where you are responsible for every step you take, if you ’re wrong, you lose money, it’s not easy for you to complete your logical narrative, using any forecasts is simply anti-logical and shifting responsibility. shift responsibility lies with anyone, therefore, you are no longer a trader at this moment. great. olga, such an ironic , playful question: you, as the editor-in-chief of a publishing house, do you use tarot cards or other forecasts to predict trends and tendencies in reader demand, that is, well, well, so you are compiling your portfolio for the next year, you are scattering the cards sometimes, which you release yourself, what will be in demand, what won’t? i don't, but i personally know the person.

so it helped, because it happened, well, like in that famous joke, when a woman is asked what is the probability that you will meet a dinosaur when you go out on the street of st. petersburg, she says 50%, either you will or not, well, because in reality, if she is serious , well, ilya, you will understand me, as a person not close to mathematics and economics, i am a mathematician, any phrase said that most likely, well, most likely it’s just about nothing, yes, even if. you

say that with a 98% probability it will be, well, let’s say your example, yes, the ruble exchange rate through a week without a downward movement, it will be there , i don’t know, 95 will reach this level without a downward movement, on such a horizon, this is the number, if this does not happen, i can say, well, it was 98%, those same two worked , yes, well, mathematicians will understand me, distant statistical, distant quantiles in the distribution of the gaos curve have worked, if anyone is interested... then you can google what it is, here, but they exist, since i repeat again, any probability is not one hundred percent, that is , it turns out that by publishing such wonderful tools, you yourself admit that well, you personally and your publishing house are not working, of course, because we do not publish them for such purposes, yes, that is, not for forecasting and not for fortune-telling, if i needed to look into myself or ask... yourself, i don’t know, to find an answer to

some complex task of personal study there, i would probably look there, okay, a completely personal question, do you ever use tarot cards? yes, a very long time ago, i was not impressed, for ourselves or with the help of some professional, because there is but some, no, for yourself, without some kind of professional, lya, such a question, do you yourself think that forecasts should be made in such a complex matter as...

based assumptions that the price will most likely go somewhere with such and such a probability and so on, well, in addition to long-term forecasts, which are difficult to make money on, nevertheless, there are rare situations in the market when the so-called probabilistic bias actually arises, most often these are crises, why they say that a crisis is these are opportunities for traders, too, yes, because during a crisis a situation occurs when you can with a very high degree of probability say the following, well, the direction of the price in the near term, yes, not in the long term, just in the short term, this is not a prediction of the crisis, as many people think, but this is exactly what , what happens after a crisis , a crisis is extremely difficult to predict and almost no one knows how to do this, if you predict, it is usually by chance, then these people reap the benefits for a very long time, but cannot repeat this success, they do not predict the next crisis, so when the crisis has already occurred, betting that everything will return, the fall, yes, will end in growth, this is very probabilistic. history,

because 99% of crises end in subsequent growth, but what is the problem? the point is that a crisis occurs rarely, and it dictates to you the moment when the forecast... works, yes, that is, a crisis has occurred and you say, oh, now a situation has arisen when i can give a forecast. basically, people look for forecasts every day. is there such a moment here, i ’ll interrupt you, as i said at one time rockefeller, you need to buy stocks when blood is shed on the streets, when you commit illogical actions, that is , unnatural, like turning the steering wheel of a rear-wheel drive car towards a skid, and so on, there are a number of actions that you...

.to strengthen self-confidence, then yes, conditionally, yes, but you said a very important thing, first of all, it’s about the trader himself, yes, in how he treats the market and how he treats himself in the market, that is, he is confident in himself, he does not shift responsibility to anyone, he gives the forecast himself, they spied on someone somewhere, listened to signals there, and then this forecast further strengthens his confidence, but it is very important not just how confident he is, how much his forecast will work, it is very important what he will do in the market , because a forecast in itself, even a forecast that has come true, even your forecast, is not a fact that will bring you money, what matters is how you act, that is, look, a very key point, i can even show you with an example, for example covid, yes, this is the last major crisis that occurred in all markets, the whole world found itself in a situation in which it had never been,

that is, countries are closing, lockdowns and so on, this was a severe blow to the economies of all countries there, and what happened here, let’s assume, on the eve of covid, here is the snp index , which you... suppose you, on the eve of covid , say a forecast that by the end of the twentieth year, yes, that is, the index will grow by 20%. after this, covid happens, the index collapses, and then by the end of the year it still returns and... melts by this 20%, did your forecast come true or not? well, in the context of what we discussed, it certainly didn’t come true, but if we take a trader who is absolutely confident in his abilities, and who bet on this forecast and just waited, waited, he didn’t do the wrong thing, yes, because

basically, those people who work with forecasts, they have a very strict dichotomy: if the forecast is fulfilled, you are right, you take a profit, and if the price goes against you, you are wrong, take a loss, that’s the problem. in what and not in the fact that the forecast came true or did not come true, in the fact that that you don’t wait until it comes true and take a loss in the non-forced situation that you are talking about, yes, you turn the steering wheel, not in the wrong direction, yes, we will combine business with pleasure, business with pleasure, yes, i will be useful, and you will be pleasant, that is, or, and then it will change, then vice versa , yes, but i will try to remember some jokes, then you have cases from your life that became jokes, today... on the first, everything is like that for you easy, not the first time, the third time, and that every time you just take it and give it away, well, this is business, listen, marin, i can congratulate you, you are a mother , congratulations on fatherhood, i’ll take a photo of your child

and bring the testimony to alexandra as a gift, i’m afraid in the event of a divorce you won’t get anything, but somehow, you are a serious statesman with us. look at the time after the program, are you bargaining for the night, don’t want to return it, three lemmas, no less, and you need the money in 2 hours.

private screening with alexander gordon. so do you like the movie? an absolutely original and powerful film language. you already understood what you are talking about at the script level, of course, the viewer must see what happens to these characters from beginning to end, they are real and alive all the way, he plunges into the depths of human relationships, i looked at the picture and forgot about it, and in the morning i wake up, i suddenly have a bass so that at the end, they are together or not, the sessions start from january 20 on saturdays. on the first one, this is the easy money podcast, i’m its host

mikhail khanov, today we have a very interesting, new year’s mystical theme, forecasts, how accurately they come true, is it worth believing them and is it worth using them on the way achieving financial well-being. returning to the topic of covid, olga , in fact, what ilya said is one thing, how it related and how it related to stock indices, prices, market collapses and so on, but... but it was the twentieth year that actually became such a point growth for all publishing houses in the production of these products and in tarot cards in the literature around this, is this due to the fact that the level of uncertainty and self-doubt has sharply increased, so what do you think? yes, publishers know that as soon as the level uncertainty is growing, so people begin to look for all kinds of support, and therefore, and esotericism has begun to grow, but also another...

we are now discussing, in fact, based on the demand for this kind of literature in terms of circulation and the sales of these circulations, we can make forecasts for the subject of society's self-confidence in the situation around it, and accordingly draw conclusions that if this interest subsides in this kind of literature, then everything is in order with the economy, uncertainty is decreasing, bright things await us ahead, well, at least economic. future olga, is this true or not? no, this is a very long process, and

publishing activity, it is postponed from the event for quite a long period of time, what? and at least 6 months, but most often it’s a year, or even a year and a half, so in the twentieth year an event happened, yes, something happened, and we are now seeing obvious growth, well, we have seen growth after all, according to the figures that you cited in the twenty-first, twenty-second, there was almost a doubling. yes, but now we are still at the peak, now at is still at its peak, that is, it suggests that the crisis, one way or another, has gradually reached its peak and is in decline, and people are already drawing more confidence, i don’t know, from the news , simply rather than how they need support, even from themselves, it turns out, yes, i think that in general, in principle, the level of self-awareness of people has increased, and from support in external forces, they finally turn to themselves. and this is an important step, we have been moving towards this since the nineties, from jars

of cucumbers to the opportunity to work with ourselves and gain confidence in our abilities, i don’t know there, with a specialist, with an expert on your own, you quite often present training videos, in your opinion, the request from the audience is changing, that is, there is this feeling that people have become more confident. they are no longer expecting from you any specific ones up or down, yes, but a request for tools, well, you and i understand that there is a huge amount, especially in the area in which you work, yes, these are derivatives, these are complex instruments, these are futures, options, there is a very large request for tools, right now , according to your feeling, is there some kind of change , yes, that people, that people are asking, they are asking, we don’t need all this, up or down, where it goes, here, or that ’s all- after all, people want to learn so that...

unfortunately, it will turn from top to bottom, that’s how the system works, that’s how psychology works, people are looking for simple answers, yes, complex questions, give him a loot button, that’s accordingly, a loot button, yes, that is, where okay, i just cut these people off, i give them a bath, i say, if you don’t want to study, you have no business to me, there are a huge number of telegram channels where they will show you, give you a loot button, however, here, because it becomes more difficult for people to cope, and those people who, in an ordinary situation in life , cope on their own without esotericism, without external help, in a crisis they can’t cope, so sales increase, which is what trading is also interesting about here, trading is constantly under increased stress, well, the trader and this profession itself, well, god himself ordered, as they say, to use the services of esotericism, if you are

constantly under stress, draw with confidence, badly, because again you are shifting responsibility to some higher ones. strength, but that is why among traders, unfortunately, there will always be a very big demand for all these things, please note in the circulation issues that one of your many audiences, it is in stock trading and these audiences, and according to the tools, i i’ll explain why, because traders, they are well-versed, they are supposedly economists, they have their own gods, well, relatively speaking, yes, their own esotericism, their own idols, this is the main idol of these people on financial...

if this were so, then i think that the huge global financial institutions, world banks that invest tens of billions of dollars in r&d, research and development, yes, development and study of markets, i think that they would have long ago everyone has already become rich, but since this is not happening, we are saying that all

the information that is actually needed is information that, well, actually with the help of self-development. emotional spirit and emotional health, i think this is where the secret of success lies, the guarantee that any information that you consume will be correct and will ultimately lead to financial well-being, i would formulate it this way: you need to work with what you can work with, by and large , in the market all this is very clearly visible, there is a trader and there is a market, there is nothing else, when we talk about market analysis, about technical analysis of the market, any other market analysis, about forecasts, we are trying to work with a market that has absolutely nothing to do with us, it lives its own life, we cannot influence it, in fact, you need to work with yourself, with your actions, which will lead to profit in any market behavior, here olgo and i don’t seem

to agree, this is motivational literature, but you can approach it in different ways relate, but this is the right direction. that is, this is where psychology goes , and psychoanalysis is there, and classic frey. i’m a trader with thirty years of experience, and as you already said , but i’ve been there for 25 years, because of this experience, i ’m quite immersed in psychology because the key to making money on the stock exchange is not through mathematics not through finance and not through forecasts and not through etherics, but through psychology, through working with yourself, that is , you need to work with what you can work with yourself, we can work with our reactions to the market and with...

other gyms visited, that is , you are working with an object, in fact, this will not help you lift it, in order to lift it, you need to work with yourself, training, regimen and so on and so forth sleep, nutrition constant constant exercises with this barbell, study it no need, just the same you don’t need to study the market, study yourself in the market , that’s the key, i’m actually very happy about this example, because in the end we came to what we come to, well, in fact, every program, every release of ours, we say that in order to achieve financial... well-being, first of all , the main key of this financial well-being is you yourself, and this is your investment in those very means of production, yes, this is actually, well, the body that you have, first of all queue. brains with which you already earn money and will be successful, and not with using forecasts. i'm actually very glad that we came to this consensus.

i am very grateful to you, olga, to you ilya, for having such an interesting conversation, i wish you to always guess with tarot cards without tarot cards the preferences of your readers' requests to always be in trend, well, actually for you ilya, i have only one wish - this more often.

misha, let’s get even, get even, let’s make you look like frosty, and let’s take a photo, he’s playing, of course he’s playing, it’s time for them to walk.

come on, dare, have fun, and be loud.

let's sing ours, the same one, the one that's here i really want to sing with those

closest to me, on some holiday, huh? come on, let’s hug, friends, it’s so soulful, and somewhere the salt cellar clicks, the river pulls the bowstring. and damn little head, don’t fall off your shoulders into the grass, damn little little head, don’t fall off the plain. in

tragedy, if i stand for my soul from the grave, they are remembered in the brains of saints, it doesn’t matter, the earth will rejoice. not only beauty, but the earth is still growing older, one cannot lose beauty, life was quite harmful. like a grenade without a pin,

a self-made one, silver, poured out of melancholy, self-made.

letting may and the bottom shine in the zhidean darkness, the packed and the bottom shine in the zhidean dust. shine in the light of everyday life, be happy, our dears, take care of yourself, kalya has arrived, kalya yes, kalya duyuchi, kalya yes,

kaladita.

barrel of yaretsy, barrel of bchalitsa, kalyada, kalyadzitsa, good i am maladzitsa, kalyada, kalyadzitsa, good.

ensemble vataga, gorodryansk, thank you, the old gold needs to be thrown out of the stove, the new year has come, so that everything will be new, in a good way,

that you are a good friend, give me money for the passage, exhale, he will stand here waiting for you, not at all give, high muzzle, muzzle, higher muzzle, higher

muzzle deserved, the pie back for itself, and the leg dug for itself, and got it, dug back. here, and also, so that there will be some fun in the chaos here at the holiday,

let’s lead us to sing, many summers, many summers. happiness to everyone, mom, dad , i'm wearing costumes from the lipetsk district on our bride, they walked around the village like this before the wedding, my mother sold a cow to get the girl married to sew this suit , you won't find such embroidered lace anywhere, oh, what a beauty, we took the russian mansion as... the basis transformed them, as we see them, wow,

wow, apple tree, apple tree, garden, mine , commanded vyacheslav and polina, sang to each other for a long family life, our premiere, we are playing a wedding, today on the first, satellite debris is flying towards you , we will do maneuvers. that's it, friends, don't restrain yourself, sneeze correctly, the elixir of happiness, what is tryptophan and where to look for it, rupture, what is a vessel aneurysm, a program to live with...

in public finances everything is getting worse , worse, and he just gobbled it up personal comfort and well-being 600 thousand. euros from the latvian budget. take the trouble to learn our national language. we are talking about the public deliberate humiliation of russians in latvia, who are forced to retake the exam. there will be deportation, i think it will affect at least a thousand people. he came to the territory of the us embassy in rigi every single day. he was preparing the country for war, that's what they were doing. this is such an american look. must choose whether he is a latvian citizen or a us citizen. he considers himself god's chosen one.

who's carrying whom, hop-hop-hop, hop-hop, let's get heavy once again, louder, louder, louder, friends, and to kick off our evening, let's meet right now, soliskim, moshkali. congratulations to everyone on

christmastide, on holy days, oh, winter, kalinka winter, oh, i was far away, once or twice. oh, yes, she was a land-flying woman, she was a land-flying yashnuk, oh, she smoked all day, she smoked at night , oh, she ruined it in a matter of days.

on christmastide, but prepare sana in the summer and in the winter, so the song will be at your request about summer, about the village, oh so... with a song with the scent of summer, yeah, the song will be sung by konstantin krasnoperov, the song was written by his father, yuri krasnoperov, in general, let’s remember yuri sanich and just remember what summer, red, suffering, it’s called , i'm overwhelmed. keody,

i look at the stars in the silence, my worries are hidden in the night, god bless the last light in the window, another summer day is flying by, there were swine mowers, it was hot, how good. to me under the moonlight at the village yard, at night after the harvest, as if i were drunk, you are my village, bordered, apparently this is fate,

life is complicated, you have disturbed my heart. every yard is breathing, the stairs have melted in the grass, there is fog over the mown field, there is peace in the stars in the sky, as if i am alone in the world, as if there is no fuss. above the chimney , blue smoke carries my dreams into the distance at night after the suffering, as if i’m drunk, you’re my village of repentance

, you can see this fate, life is complicated, you disturbed my heart. at night, after the country , as if yana, i am you, my village, accursed wine, this is fate , life is complicated and my heart was disturbed , disturbed, disturbed. raster, thank you.