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tv   PODKAST  1TV  June 29, 2024 1:50am-2:35am MSK

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i relied on crypto at night, and then it opened and at the same time the interbank market opened, and what was the figure? and we see an attempt to leave at 911.5 there was a blow and instantly the number is flooded down, first 88, and then gradually 87, then it bounces 89, then 86 goes, that is, all the speculators, in fact, bet that there would be panic now, they punished him very gently, or even not even gently, well, panic happened, but just in the other direction by and large, yes, but in the end it didn’t matter. but the number strengthened around 88, which is how i counted in fact, the central bank with its new central bank rate in the new realities, well , the average price turned out, in general, according to the central bank results , the rate strengthened, well, almost by a ruble, the next day it returned again to 89 and kopecks, where it was for 13 people this week, by the 15th we had practically the same central bank rate that was on the eve of the sanctions. another very important point is the shares of the moscow exchange itself. they sank
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the most, they sank approximately at the very bottom by 12%, but they were almost completely bought back, this drop happened on the same day, the next day, interestingly, dividends were issued on the moscow exchange, the dividend cut-off was 6%. on friday, when these dividends were paid in the morning, it was completely closed by the market, that is, in principle, we can say that by friday, the shares of the moscow exchange, taking into account the paid dividends, were already worth more than they were on... the calculations are not made by the participants participant, but passes through a single , standardized trade, where everything is an intermediary, but through the national the cleaning center is the intermediary to whom everyone conventionally trusted, to whom they gave money, to whom they gave currency and through whom the exchange took place, that is, we met in the exchange book, sold something to each other, this is recorded in the system, then we carry out calculations through ncc, that’s exactly what ncc does.
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in appearance, very sick, we hung mirrors, hid only in the darkness, she hated the light, she hoped, fought, but burned out at the very pinnacle of success, for her family it was hell, but after death this hell continued, money, threats, real estate sales, mutual reproaches from dmitry shepelev and zhanna’s father vladimir friske. if we had not trusted this person, she might have lived at least another six months, but she would have lived, our exclusive life after life, zhanna. i keep saying, guys, will it happen? what will happen and
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this cannot be avoided exclusive with dmitry borisov, premiere, tomorrow on the first, why are you so afraid, look, he is probably 200 years old, and if he is a maniac, you like to watch people, it seems to me that they are for.. .there is some thunderstorm here, i love him, and i don’t need anyone else, the conqueror of women’s hearts, without a single defeat, my parents insisted on the wedding for a long time, they are spoiled by my husband and his activities, there will be no future that you so colorfully paint for us, i can tell our readers about our first again, alexander's film. hotel
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premiere super-camera movie about the understatement between people that arises and smolders inside for years, a black shadow in the hidden depths of the soul, for me it’s a movie of a person who needed to speak out, about people who want to speak out, tomorrow on the first one, this is the easy money podcast, me and its host mikhail khanov, we continue to figure it out. with how the sanctions imposed on the moscow exchange, on other sites, on the dollar, on the euro, affect the lives of ordinary citizens, retail investors, and not only. for those private investors whose accounts are stuck in dollars and euros, accounts on the musex exchange, or in the nsd, in the depositary, what will happen to these assets, in your opinion, well, let’s immediately close the question about nsd.
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us sanctions don’t change anything new well, and accordingly, regarding blocking, everyone was also very much afraid that if there were sanctions on the ncc, then those dollars that citizens have in brokerage accounts, that is, on the stock exchange, because brokers are an intermediary between us, private traders
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and the exchange, that these dollars would be blocked, why were there these fears, because we know the precedent with our other exchange, a large number were indeed blocked on the st. petersburg exchange.
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was 100 dollars, you will receive 8,900 rubles. well depends on the rate that the bank sets, there may be some, but there would be some fear that the rate would suddenly be 50, as some marginal economists say in our country, there are even assumptions now that the rate there will go to 75 and so on, do you personally have any assumptions about the course, how much and how it will change? let's do it this way, again, the central bank rate is still determined as it was determined, only a little differently. participants who attached the course are approximately the same, the imbalance of supply and demand, if there was one if only earlier on the moscow exchange, it will also be on the interbank market, therefore, from the point of view of the flow of currency from country to country, which generally determines the exchange rate, and for the most part, supply and demand, nothing has changed dramatically, which is why such a frontal
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reaction it shouldn’t be, let’s say, carefully yes, because something new could happen, some secondary sanctions could come, that is, maybe the story is not over at all, yes, i would like to talk about this topic now about secondary sanctions. because basically i i think that the same, let’s say, ideologists of the sanctions process, having seen that yes, life has become more complicated, but not much, the course is still miraculously determined quite quickly, quite quickly, and such global inconveniences did not happen for anyone, the next what a step: you can block another major currency, which has literally become the talk of the town over the last few years, this is the yuan and... now the question is how much chinese banks will be subject to secondary sanctions, how scared they will be to work with russia and to what extent the yuan will be exposed to this influence of sanctions, the second point, we basically have banks
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that are not under sanctions, that have the right to conduct transactions with currency, that have the right to store them, i think that the next step , but we won’t tell you, but i think that this is an open secret, in general it’s simply to cut off the ability of all financial institutions, banks in russia to work with the dollar. what's in this case? let's talk about yuan first, that's all we said before, we talked about how yuan wouldn't noting that in fact there is a very serious factor, this is the yuan factor, because the yuan is traded on the moscow exchange, continues to be traded on the moscow exchange, and as far as we know, has already exceeded the dollar in trading volumes, it exceeded it even before these sanctions. has long exceeded, and moreover, international settlements in the dollar, which in addition to exchange trading there, is the currency of international settlements, we are already, in fact , by the time of these sanctions, and up to 80% of our turnover, and foreign trade, is considered neither in dollars nor in euros , this is first of all
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yuan, including the ruble, or some other rupees there, and so on and so forth, yes, that is, we, in principle, for international trade are not particularly dependent on the dollar and the euro, but we are very dependent on the yuan , this is the main criterion. which is now , by and large, the only criterion that remains on the exchange, online, constant, by which trading takes place, by which you can determine how much it costs through a cross-rate, because everything is in the world. yes, but let me explain for our listeners that the yuan exchange rate to the dollar is is determined in the world on the same international forex market, and this rate is known to everyone, and it cannot be somehow, sanctions cannot be imposed on it, so we always know how much the yuan is worth to the dollar, now many professionals, in order understand how much a ruble-dollar costs online, so as not to wait for these 10-15 minutes, which on the interbank market is unknown, they look at the yuan, accordingly, which is what many now fear in... foreign sanctions on the yuan, yes, this a legal rule that states
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that if sanctions are imposed, there is a certain list of primary sanctions, for example, on ncc, then those organizations that have no direct relationship with russia, as it were, which also have their own commercial relationships with ncc, may also fall under sanctions, and this depends from the dollar, that is, there is a lever by which they can be pressed and pulled, well, now the main question is, that is, we understand, we are afraid that... as if the market is afraid that china will fall under these autonomies, if china says yes , we are like bunnies, we take under visor we are complying with the instructions of the ministry of finance, the usa, what will this mean for you and me when exchange trading stops, including the ruble yuan, that is, under sanctions, since we have masbirzha and its subsidiaries, a reserve depository and a national clearing center, then actually these are the sites that will be closed. for all operations, including with the yuan, but also following the example
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of what happened with dollars and euros, new inter-banks will arise, the so-called interbank, in principle, i think that now our financial officers from the central bank are actively working on such options and similar scenarios, well, here it’s not even just officers from the central bank, i think this is being decided at a higher level, officers-officials, yes, no matter what anyone thinks, this should be decided. that china will somehow, just as quickly as the european union, agree to those norms,
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those rules of the game that the united states constantly introduces, new ones, i think that china is the power that first of all defends its interests, but not let us console ourselves with the hope that all this is being done there for the sake of russia, no, this is naturally being done for interests of china, but it is not in china’s interests to introduce some kind of, let’s say, hard peace.
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this is the easy money podcast, i’m its host , mikhail khanov, and we continue to figure out how sanctions affect working with currencies, dollars and euros, for ordinary citizens, for banks, for institutional investors, how our platforms will work and how they already work. the next set of questions that i would like to discuss is what ordinary citizens who have become accustomed to sharing part of their pillow over many, many years should do now. security so called keeping part of your savings in foreign currency, here is your advice, what would you do, so
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you recommended that ordinary citizens diversify, yes, that is, divide their savings, if it is not rubles, then what? well , i’ll also break it down into two questions, yes, firstly, do you need to change anything in connection with what happened on june 12, but nothing needs to be changed at all, because in this sense nothing has changed for you, but there were you dollars, okay, let them be, you looked at the dollar exchange rate. according to the central bank exchange rate they were guided once a day there or once a week, in the same way you will have a course that you will be guided by, nothing will change in this sense, you only need to be afraid when all the banks are closed, when there is no way for anyone to hand over this one. cash currency within the country, well, the central bank said that this will not happen, we will not stop cash currency, non-cash accounts that banks have, yes, if you have deposits in dollars, nothing has affected even deposits now, yes, that is, it has affected just bank settlements, deposits just for this specific, and specifically this site, nothing else has changed in this sense, of course, maybe later, if such sanctions are imposed that banks will be banned altogether, not our
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central bank will ban, but sanctions will be banned, then we will see what to do about it, i think this will also happen somehow prepare,
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and how much did it cost in the twenty-second year? in the twenty-second, well, accordingly, it was about 20-30%, respectively stronger, stronger than the dollar kühne, the ruble fell in price about the same, that’s what i want to say the main thing, right? well from your point of view, here you are as an experienced investor, as a person who has been on the stock exchange and in financial markets in general for 30 years, this is a huge period of time, some of our listeners and viewers are younger, would you bet on the yuan now as there is no cash currency, because i... think , that the yuan, in principle, now in general in the world there is something similar to a reserve currency, that is, a reserve currency is the currency in which you can store your savings and the state itself denies this and does not want to, we must understand in china as an economy, yes the first the world's second largest economy, yes, but its currency is not the concept of
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international currency, the currency of international payments, the reserve currency, in our world we only have the dollar and the euro, that is. regional municipalities, these are the very houses, yes, the cities that were built stand empty, they were built at someone else’s expense, in fact, these are the skeletons in the closet, it’s one thing when it’s your personal business, another thing when it’s world
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currency, you are obliged to disclose information about the issue in a completely different way, how much do you type, how when. perhaps in the future the yuan will become such a currency, but for now it’s definitely not, plus we’re talking about the fact that even if we take friendly countries, this is all of south asia, the same united arab emirates, if we consider it as tourist flows, yes, when the currency can come in handy , then these are dollars, these are not even euros, these are dollars, well, not to mention, and the rest of the world - once again from the point of view of foreign currency savings, as i understand it, i don’t recommend it either. where will you take it then sell, go through the exchange offices of russian banks, you see a lot of yuan quotes there, and what kind of yuan they are, yes, that is , the question is, even if they are quoted more actively, the spreads there will most likely be much wider, because we understand that banks trade in cash, the currency that
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they have, if they have a lot of currencies and often carry out transactions, then the spreads narrow, and the yuan is still a very... exotic currency in cash, so in beznali, the whole country rushed there, and as it were, the state and speculators are now trading the yuan very seriously, the turnover is already growing, it has already exceeded the turnover and the dollar, but this concerns the non-cash form, and we are talking about cash savings, how do you assess the chances that the yuan will become the currency of the brix group, it is possible, it is possible, how ready will the other participants be with come to terms with this, this is a very debatable issue, there are very different probabilities, yes, that is, as it were. reasoning, but our reasoning, in principle, is yes, that is, we can say what else is there, say, on the horizon, well, there are 3-5 years, how minimum dominance of the dollar as an international unit.
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currency, but it is really gradual, and the most important thing is that this is only a quantitative change, there must be a qualitative change in order for some other currency, besides the euro and the dollar, to claim the role of a world reserve, it needs to go a long way, because the dollar has passed this path is within 100 years, if we talk about brix, it will most likely be logical to assume that some kind of common single currency will be created for the entire brix, well, by analogy with the euro, for everything the european union, but again this will happen at a stage when relations within brick will become much closer than they are now, this is also a question of years. well, plus , i’ll say it again and repeat that in order to become an issuer of a single currency for a group of countries, for the whole world, it doesn’t matter, a different degree of openness is needed,
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a different degree of transparency of all transactions is needed, which china is not ready for, as i said due to simply a certain state structure, first of all, a certain national mentality, well, and financial ones there, well, let’s call it that, there are problems with the fact that so far... so far , what, let’s say, on the surface above the water, but the picture may differ from what is there underwater, those same skeletons closet, which will all have to be taken out, disassembled, cleaned, or even better, thrown away, yes, i think that china is not yet ready for such openness, again, yes, do we need this now as some kind of global task, yes for some alternative currency, our task is local, here is our relationship with the world, yes russia, has now come down to the fact that we do this through the yuan, the yuan is quite enough for us for this function.
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i said that with regard to the non-cash form, it is possible now, well, to increase the share of vibration by moving away from the non-cash dollar and euro, and this is in any case already, if you haven’t done it before, then you will most likely do it now, because well they cut us off in every possible way, and citizens, including private ones, from the dollar and from the euro, that’s a fact, from the non-cash dollar and euro, again from the non-cash yes, again, if we are talking about the right approach to investing you have. let us repeat this , we must constantly talk about this, diversification and necessarily, this is like a key issue when we talk about competent financial planning of the budget
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of both individuals and foundations, and states, diversification, so if you act correctly, you you have a bunch of cash currency, which is ideally divided into three parts, for example, the ruble, the euro, the dollar, in this sense nothing has changed, but you also have part of your investment the portfolio must be in non-cash currency. that’s where the yuan share can and should grow, well, in fact, up to 100%, judging by what you said, no, well , also the non-cash ruble, but non-cash yes, excuse me, i’m saying that in currencies that are different from the ruble, this is actually 100%, yes, these are the currencies, in the non-cash part the yuan share can grow due to the withdrawn share of the euro and dollar, in the non-cash part yes, that’s another question, what else must there be in the portfolio other parts, we are only currencies closed the cash well, now we are saying that we only recommend in foreign currency, no, you should have bonds and shares and deposits, if you wish , and a piece of gold there, and that is, yes, i know your love for gold, well, let’s say again
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that in fact with the introduction of this package of sanctions, the non-cash euro and dollar became not maximally toxic, but extremely toxic in order to talk about them as highly liquid assets that can be in a portfolio. here it is also slowly drying up, because the number of banks that can deal international transferable currency and b want to do this, it decreases very
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much. here, but for now it is still possible to transfer dollars and euros, but again this part is gradually moving to the yuan, and moreover, you won’t believe it in rubles, that is, now there is such a direction when if you need to transfer currency abroad , you first transfer the ruble to a friendly jurisdiction, for example, kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, which is now developing very actively, and there on their domestic market, well, on the stock exchange, you buy dollars if you need them, that is in principle, this is... an alternative to storing non-cash dollars and euros is banks of friendly countries, and you do n’t transfer dollars and euros there, but you transfer rubles there, convert there through the national currency, or yes, in your opinion, i just know, in kazakhstan you can directly through the ruble, so you got a ruble and you can buy a ruble-dollar there, and the banks are calm about this, well, for now , yes, for now, yes, i again say, as the central bank said, how and how
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it looks so far, you in principle you can continue. keep non-cash dollars and euros in russian banks, that is, this function has not gone away now, but i’m just saying that the risks of this are quite high, well, most likely some kind of normal , digestible decision will be made, well, we don’t know what they will be sanctions, how they will be imposed, so we said that there is an option that sanctions will be imposed on all banks, and 370 russian banks, well, now sanctions have been imposed on about 70, there are still 300 left, i just don’t see much need to hold non-cash dollars and euros in russian banks.
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if we are talking about non-cash dollars and euros, yes, this is becoming more and more a toxic asset until it is completely banned, but nevertheless steps are being taken towards this, we will not even predict what will happen, but in principle, if you really since it is necessary due to the type of activity, according to your activity, working with non-cash dollars and euros, the easiest way to do this is through
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friendly banks. no alternative transition, i repeat, again, from the point of view of cash, nothing has changed, that’s right, thank you very much, thank you for the fact that we so calmly, in detail, analyzed the whole situation in detail, how sanctions affect the lives of ordinary citizens, what is constantly being introduced. there, with a certain frequency, they impose sanctions on sites, on currencies, on organizations that work with them, they found out that nothing has changed either for ordinary citizens or even for retail investors, that basically all the changes that have occurred concern them primarily turn of professionals, so-called institutional market players, in principle
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even for them those changes. which occurred are not critical, not fatal, that is , we will still have the dollar exchange rate, as before, these will be numbers taken not from the ceiling and not some calculations, but this is exactly how we are used to, this is the balance of demand between sellers and buyers of currency, because externally our country continues to conduct economic activity quite successfully, well, actually, we follow the development of events without panic, calmly analyzing information and making informed decisions. thank you. thank you for inviting me, all podcast episodes you can find easy money on the channel one website.
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and finally, the winners were announced, the group won the gold disc 98. the united states of america, well, you guys, friends, i...
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it was the group magzhik with their legendary hit in drebez, yes, these guys lived like children in their nineties, giving a light to many western groups, but only two albums later the group magic unexpectedly disbanded. where are you wizards now?
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sorry, there's a guitar hanging there, there's no price tag on it, how much is it, it's not for sale, why, i'm sorry, it's hanging here because you're a seller, hello, hello. i'm a seller, son, denis, come here, tell me what you want to buy, a guitar, what kind of guitar, baby, kakudana, do you have a guitar, what width, i
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don't know, okay, baby, let's show grandpa the clip, peek-a-boo , we don’t have such guitars, why? this is a copy of eric clapton's guitar, fender, one, such guitars are not sold in stores. in this case, offer us something similar. just take a stratocaster. son, a stratocaster? mom, i don't want this crap, i want kakushirin. just a second, baby, suggest please give us a guitar that is as similar as possible to the guitar from the ed sheeran video. bezki. the world is across the street, i don’t understand, do you want to buy an instrument or a plastic figurine, second, hello, yes, crap, hey, little
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digital degenerate, you know that samnik ferrara played on this crap in 1994 on wem. what, otherwise, if you ’re going to cheat girls, you don’t need to buy guitars, but you need to fry less, mom, pima, come see me, how are you, fine, i’m sure what time it is, yes, i was delayed on the way, late? how are sales going? sales are going well, why did you call me, god knows, i sincerely tried to help you, and my conscience is clear, but it can’t go on like this,
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you’re constantly late, you’re being rude to the buyer, you haven’t sold a single guitar in the last month, fin, you know , how i love you and what we went through together, let’s go without the link. in general, fim, i’m in debt now, so i can’t help anymore, let’s go our separate ways.
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oh mon dieu e film, oh louise! so much, we are alive, unfortunately, yes, efim, well, you understand, that my patience is not limitless, yes, you have not paid for the room for 3 months, which has been left in terrible disrepair, yes, you have exactly 3 days to leave my house, yes.
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but there is money, money is not what it is, but not what it is, but you can drink a bottle, please, now everything will be, today it’s self-service, man, you could ask, mademoiselle, i couldn’t, i was afraid to like it, what is it, hands put it away. vacuum on your head, quiet,
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quiet, we're already leaving, how much we owe you, that's enough, good evening, we can talk in a calm atmosphere, just with one condition, i represent the interests of my boss, romanavich, he approaches you with an offer to give him guitar lessons for a fee, what is your rate , is it a scam or what? roman yurievich warned about a possible reaction and asked me to tell you that, given your precarious position. at the moment, you can be useful to each other, wait, you want
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me to teach you how to play the guitar, that ’s right, salute, efim, don’t rush, listen, alec, or whatever your name is, there are a lot of people in our city nerds who will agree to do your boss any whim. roman yuryevich wants you to be this nerd, i mean the teacher. the conversation is over. 500, which is 500, 500 dollars for one lesson, twice a week, a thousand, which is an oligarch, i cannot disclose this information, it means a bandit. no, not a bandit, 1,500 dollars, 12,000 dollars a month, roman ilyevich is ready to immediately pay for the first four lessons in advance, and don’t worry, you won’t even see him, you will record your lessons on this camera, twice
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a week, hold on, on wednesday friday, i will come to your house for a new lesson, you give me a video, i will give you an envelope, wait, this roman, roman? yes, he somehow doesn’t want to attend the lesson, he can’t, he’s a very busy man, but as you can imagine, i’ll teach him without him, and roman yurievich already knows the basics of playing the guitar and he’s drawn up an individual program for your lessons , please take a look, he knows the basics of the guitar, so he’s an ardent fan of the band magic, now you understand, he chose you, some kind of nonsense, but very profitable, efim, yes.
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i’ll explain everything in a more understandable way, lord, unfortunately, this is impossible, why? these are efin’s rules, but what is it, who is he anyway, and you can’t not see him, you can’t not hear him, afim, efim, i understand your task, but i dare to assume that you manage the advance with pleasure, you must transfer it today first lesson in the evening, at 20:00 i will be with you, yes, yes, yes, yes! good morning, fima! sanych, he forgot something about pavel, he’s already put a price tag on her, but where is she, who? guitar
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mine, where? it was bought this morning, by whom? ifim, you don't work here anymore? this is confidential information, i am not obligated to answer your questions, which you are not obligated to do, fampecha, please don’t, save the change for candy, fireworks, roman yurievich, you are a strange guy, of course, today we are analyzing key reefs. majika group, efim, yes, you robbed someone yesterday, luiza vasilievna, i’m very busy right now, i should know, this is a dirty day.

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