distance before next year's presidential elections. i listened that i'm get the address that you have, but what the thousands of protest as of ronnie an argentine as capital against austerity measures announced by new you elected president, have you, i'm in a there was a heavy police presence that while the government threatened to cut welfare to anyone blocking major roads to exhibit reports in front of iris. left wing groups trying to make you to the center of origin. tina's catholic telemundo site is they came here to protest against the economic policies of heavy emulates new government. for the 1st time in years, they were met with resistance by security forces w, solano, says, mean a, is trying to remove certain fundamental rights. the government is violating the rights of protest in argentina. they want to violate the judiciary, and the legislative branch is with a series of laws they want to pass. i'm very worried about democratic freedoms. in argentina, the police controls access to the capital and film to people on buses and train

stations or trying to make it to the center of the city. there's lots of tension in defense or of one upside is with hundreds of police officers that have been deployed via the government said that protesters are not allowed to cover their faces or to carry what could be considered a west point like a stick. they're also saying that process there's won't be allowed to block any road which has been a common practice on to them. now, despite these demonstrators on fort, managed to reach the glass of the module in front of they proceed to ensure the palace, the origin, teenagers in the middle of an economic crisis. inflation was already very high. when have you had to be late? took office 10 days ago, but at 54 percent evaluation of the currency last week has made the situation even worse. mean a says only an orthodox economic plan. we get origin tina out of the crisis. we'll drop it off here. and that's why on wednesday, he announced

a mega decree to reform thousands of laws on issues like labor or exports, state companies and land located the will. the objective is to begin with, the reconstruction of our country gives back freedom to our individuals and begin to dismantle the enormous quantity of regulations that have stopped and complicated economic growth in that country. this is always the 1st step. the government says the economic situation. we start to improve in the next few months. people here are not convinced vowed to remain ready to fight back the so i just see that when a site is well, that's it for me, diamond jordan, for now more use of course, on our website, i'll just come there. it is. the bottom line is up next state you and thanks so much and from the

this is a region that is walk me through the little thing, but it's one also that is afflicted by conflicts political upheaval. some of those we talked to elsewhere saying that they fled after hearing that other villages had been to talk to what we do in all just there is try to balance the stories, the good, the bad, the id, tell it as it was. and he's the people who allow us into their lives, dignity into minus. he asked me to tell this story a hi. i'm steve clements. i have a question. what's behind the us pressure for israel to change it? scorched earth strategy and gaza? let's get to the bottom line, the in the middle east, the bye didn't ministration is exactly at the point where it never wanted to be literally one week before the hamas attacked of october 7th, us national security advisor jake sullivan was saying and quote,

the middle east region is quieter today, then it has been into decades on quote. now it's round the clock crisis meetings, and one top us official after the other making trips to the region. after months of rejecting a full ceasefire. now, american officials and some hard line european allies like the u. k in germany are heading that they're not okay with the brutality of israel's war. israel strategy has been to punish the civilian population of the gaza strip with maximum damage, killing and maiming tens of thousands of innocent palestinians, and turning gaza into a place where no one can live. so what's behind a slight change in tune among western powers? and what if anything will change in this war? today we're talking with n bremar president and founder of the razor group, a firm that studies geopolitical risk. and thank you so much for joining us. let's . i want our audience to know that one of the reasons you're famous in the world is for seeing crises coming around the corner, assessing and looking at geo political risk. it is out there,

but i want to read to you a statement made on the 29th of september by jake sullivan, the president's national security advisor. he said the middle east region is quieter today. then it has been in 2 decades now. challenges remain. iran is nuclear weapons program, the tensions between israelis and palestinians, but the amount of time that i have to spend on crisis and conflict in the middle east today compared to any of my predecessors going back to 911, is significantly reduced. so i want to ask you, and this was a week before october 7th and the hamas attacks. what didn't jake sullivan see coming that you did coming? well, i mean, 1st of all let's, let's recognize that many of the things that jake was talking about a week before october 7 are still in place. the abraham accords which helped facilitate israel normalizing relations with countries around the region

and putting them in the best geo political position they had been since independence of israel still very much in place. secondly, a breakthrough that was facilitated by the americans. a breakthrough facilitated by the chinese between iran and saudi arabia, but nobody thought possible. that's still very much in place it back to is after the october 7, a terrorist attacks that mohammed been solomon and iranian president, right. you see, spoke on the phone for the 1st time and then raised traveled to the saudi kingdom to meet with m b s. and with many other adult leaders. so i mean, the backdrop of the big powers in the middle east. being able to engage with each other and not be in a state of war that was true before october 7th. that's true after october 7th, but of course the piece of jigs quote that really reads most problem magically

is i haven't had to spend any time on this compared to anything else. and since october 7, he's been spending most of his time on it in the back. he's been on shuttle diplomacy back and forth to the region just as the secretary of defense, just as the secretary of state, even president by. so what went wrong and what went wrong? is that every one, the israel, each and the golf allies and the she is an absolutely americans for years basically came to the conclusion of, well we don't, we can't resolve is ro, palestine. so we'll just stuff it in a box and bradswell even the literally stuff, the palestinians in a box. and we'll, we'll make peace with the rest of the region. and we'll just get off, keep on keeping on and, and what we saw on october 7 is that that doesn't work for the palestinians and they can make you pay for it. um that's, that's basically the, the senior little piece, the,

the jake is miss israel going to be safe or is it going to be able to take out from us? is there stability down the road for israel after what we've seen on fault? well, there's 2 reasons why they're not safer. one is that you can take out from us leadership and tunnels and come in and control. busy and fighters, but you will not, as a consequence take out the ideas, etiology that led to her. mazda in fact, will strengthen the americans learned this over decades with the failed. busy aren't or you can take out the lot and all of his henchmen, but you can't take out the extremism and you see the tile of on running afghanistan . and yet again, in afghanistan today, if you ask the palestinians in gaza and in the west bank, how they feel about from us, there is far more support for that group. after october, 7th and a half to 2 months of is really war. but then there was before october 7th. so

that's one way that they're not safe for 2nd way to not say for their losing international support. the americans are more isolated in supporting israel and imposing a ceasefire in the war today. then the russians war, when they invaded ukraine a couple of years ago, and you see that with united nations security council resolution and the general assembly both that have taken place. that's an astonishing thing to say in, in the united states by this under a lot of pressure because a lot of the supporters and especially young people are increasingly sympathetic with the palestinian cause. not with israel. and indeed, in recent polls, astonishing to me, unlike jordy of young americans, generations, the americans say it would be a tax on october 7th, the terrorist attacks were actually justified. so those are the 2 ways that israel is not safer. but see, i want to be very clear. you have

a lot of people that are saying israel is facing an ex essential threat. and that's not true either. israel is in the strongest military position of any country in the region. a significant nuclear force enormously well trained and technologically advanced, military border and surveillance capabilities. far more capacity to outdone, andrew iron don't to defend against missile attack in israel that anybody else in the region. and it is true that october 7th showed the weaknesses of those defenses, especially if a government took his eye off the ball as not yahoo did. but i've had so many lectures about how israel is the best place to invest long term in the middle east . for pension funds and institutional investors and then the next hour, those same leaders say israel faces an extra special threat. both of those things

can not simultaneously be true. the former is and still is, and the latter is politically expedient. and we need to recognize that, well, let me play you a clip along those lines from secretary of defense, lloyd austin, who had something to say about this crisis less, less than that. what compound this tragedy of all that was waiting for these rarely people in your palestinian neighbors. at the end of this awful war was more in security fury and despair. a. and it was a very sobering words in the united states, secretary of defense about the neighborhood, you just talked about risk. you're one of the greatest risk calculators. i know. is this really robbing itself in this moment of that triple a, you know, gold star rating of, you know, a relatively low risk investment for the rest of the world by not taking an off ramp to some of what we've seen. how is this real playing with its future here?

but again, you know, kind of less than, you'd think steve, again, because no one's going to take away the military support that the us is providing noah is going to take away the technological capabilities. israel has, i mean, you know, the people that are fighting against israel in the palestinians and from us are fighting from a position of desperation. the israelis are defending from a position of strength. and they're also occupied from a position of strength. so no, i don't by the idea that israel is suddenly going to be ex, essentially vulnerable to its enemies. not least because leaders in saudi arabia and the u. a e quietly are, are perfectly happy to see how must be destroyed. they can't say it publicly, a mazda is a problem for them. the average street is a problem for them. and saudi arabia would love to be in a position where they could once again, normalize relations with israel as they were just about to do before october 7th.

they just need it to be more than window dressing for the palestinians given what's happened for the last couple of months. so no, i don't buy that, but i do buy this back of the israel is more isolated today and is losing some of its international support that has been hard bought over many decades. and i'm sympathetic to the fact that is rarely steel what they cannot live next to a territory that is run by a government that does not recognize their right to exist. i. i except that i separate, it cannot be sustained will or the is really government to live next to a come us lead gaza. but that is very different than saying that they must destroy every member of home us that's ever picked up a rifle. but they must destroy every individual who has described loyalty or fealty to that organization. i don't think it is accomplishable. i think that the civilian

costs have already been far too bye. as a consequence of their efforts to do that. and i think they will lose more than they gain from their own population. and more broad. do you think there's a way after this conflict subsides and it will subside? it will ended amount at some moment where the palestinian authority or the p l. o or some other entity that the united states helps engineer in place, will be able to come in and govern. garza come in and govern the west bank and move us forward. or do you think that's a pipe dream? but the idea of governing does a, when it's rumble, and then, and more than 50 percent of the population, without homes, you can govern that. you have to rebuild that before you can govern it. you have to construct it. there has to be a state there. there's no state there right now. there's human cottage. so where, where many, many months,

probably years away from when you would be able to talk about governing a 2 and a half 1000000 people on the ground in gaza. but it will need to happen. and it will need to happen with a plan for a sustainable future for the palestinians of israel has a right to defend itself under every circumstance. so do the palestinians. israel east have a capacity to defend themselves. as of right now, the palestinians do not do that. you need to have a government that doesn't want to destroy israel, and it also is capable of governing. it's pete full without corruption, without stealing all of the aid that is coming into them. that is not how much historically that has not been the palestinian authority. they haven't done a very good job, but there's nobody else. now the americans are saying they want the palestinian authority provide some security even if not governance. right. the is really, is under non yahoo a say no way, no how i don't believe it. not. yeah. i was going to be there for

a much longer than another few months. so it's clear that you're not going to have that kind of a solution with him in charge, but nobody thinks he should be running israel, not least. he is really citizens once he's gone. yeah, i think that's part of a solution. i think egypt can be part of a solution as well, with a lot of money provided by the gulf states. but this, i think united nations can be part of that solution. but, but steve, we are very, very far from that conversation. you know, one of the things i've been wondering is, are we seeing an escalation without noticing it? you've recently written about the who t's drones that were short down 14 drones that were shot down successful ballistic missile attacks from the who t's on shipping in the red sea and coming out of the suez canal. and it is affecting the decision on how some commerce is traveling. is there any ron back? the escalation right now that we're not witnessing?

is this the who teased basically taking independent action? and do you worry about that? is that something, as i have to tell you in washington, there's not been a lot of reaction to this, but when you look at the detail of what the who t's have been able to do is pretty significant in my book. what do you think? well, you, you asked me if there is a ron bax escalation. i think the answer is yes, you did not ask me if it was a wrong orchestrated escalation. the answer to that would be no. and there is a very big gap between those 2 things. even if they are leading to the same outcome now, for the 1st 6 weeks of this, for the attacks we saw from the who's these as well as from she and militias in iraq and syria, also backed by iran, were considered by the americans privately to be new since attacks, they weren't meant to kill soldiers. they weren't meant to really, you know, sort of lead to any escalation. they were just kind of showing that these actors

were there, they're powerful. they could cause problems in the future. you know, you need to pay attention to the and the american response was very restrain, targeted one attacker, we also meant to not really kill anybody and certainly not getting the iranians directly involved. since then, we have now seen it says the ceasefire, the, the humanitarian pause, when the hostages were being exchanged. and now the attacks on gaza have begun again in earnest. we have now seen a significant escalation from the who these in particular go our attacking ships with the intention of destroying them and sustained the tax on american warships in the red sea that has led some companies to stop shipping through that are area. and instead of much longer, much more expensive wrapped around south africa. and it's also led to more significant american responses, though focused so far on economic sanctions. again,

some of those actors, as opposed to military escalation. americans don't want the iranians to get directly involved in this war. what we've seen from the a ronnie is so far as they're willing to keep the who these on a pretty long leash. but that's very different from you don't want to, um to, to have this become a regional conflagration. so i'm like, you see, i'm more worried today about that trajectory. then i was 3 weeks ago. mm hm. but i still think it is less likely than more likely that we are, you know, on the tipping point of a regional war. now you're seeing more and more direct calls by the administration for a change of game plan by the israelis and gaza. and i'm just wondering, and i asked this recently of egypt, foreign minister, so i'm a sugary i said, is there a line that will trigger some different action from egypt in the neighborhood?

and he said, probably not. which means i'm wondering at what point we stopped watching the horror of what's on folding in in, in palestine. and people begin putting consequences into their words. now, privately, these rallies had told the americans that they had learned lessons. and that mistakes were made in the 1st weeks of the bombing campaign in the north of gaza. and that, that was going to lead to restraint that a lot fewer civilian casualties. well, the, by the ministration doesn't buy that, at least from what they've seen so far. and by doesn't like board trust not yahoo! now the, the americans, it's not surprising. israel is the top ally of the united states in the region and they experience the worst casualties, the worst attacks on the jews. but any one has seen since the holocaust. so it's not a surprise that the american response is we're going to create any criticism we have . we're going to make to you privately. we're not going to air dirty laundry

against our friends publicly. and that also meant veto is that the security council and carrying a lot of water for the israelis in multilateral diplomacy with the gulf states and with the europeans and others. all of that has happened. but i want to bring you back steve to 2015. when the same non yeah, who was in power in israel as the obama administration with bite and what, pushing for an iran nuclear deal, the j. c. p. away and not. yeah. who is the top ally of the united states in the middle east, did not quietly tell by it. and here's what i really think you should do. and here's how we should work best. and i want to give you some advice, know the fluids of washington. he gave a public speech to the house and the senate bipartisan doing everything he could to sabotage the torpedo. the iranian nuclear geo gave interviews to american newspapers. same thing. now that is not the way you behave. if you're the top ally

of the united states in the region, especially when you're in a position of stop, look at, it's not as if there's a power balance between israel and the united states. and, and i think the buying does have an entirely too soft gloves approach with not. yeah. but i mean by didn't is israel's biggest friend strong this friend, most committed friend for decades and decades. and he has been sitting there publicly watching on yahoo, destroy aspects of that position. and that relationship in an election year in the united states. do you think that there is an opportunity? they're still down the road. the united states is hoping the saudis, maybe other abraham accords members, are going to be the re, builders of gaza, the stakeholders in gaza, or do you think they're going to stay on the sidelines like they've large, we've been doing? i think the saudis want to play more of a leadership role and i think there they have a much better relationship with the us right now. in some ways, paradoxically, given the chinese engagement, how much more energy they're buying as well,

given what's happened between israel and, and from us. still the, the saudis are very interested in a nuclear energy deal. civilian the energy deal with the americans. that would also bring inspectors onto the ground in the savvy radio was a fuel pump fuel cycle and the americans would provide them with major non nato allies status and ramp up the level. busy of insect knology, of the weapon systems. they're providing the saudis, i think that that deal is absolutely still doable. the question is, is a, a saudi normalization of relations with israel. a part of that is your right now we can't be with this is really government. it can be and with window dressing for the palestinians, which would have been acceptable before the war. but that can be you need to have something much more substantive for the palestinians. and the saudis needs to be part of it needs to be a lot more money and a lot more security instability on the ground than that deal. that was inc in

bahrain, that was a saw for the palestinians that allowed for the abraham acor's in the 1st place under the trunk ministration. let me ask you real quickly about david cameron now for administer buquet and, and only in a bare cock of germany. germany's foreign minister of both pushing hard for resumption of the deal making around hostages. and a lot of us been looking at the hostage politics in israel and whether there's any dimension there. but more and more international calls to get back into that kind of deal. making with guitar at the table is really is how mos, etc. where do you think that my go refresh the germans and the u. k. are now calling for a sustainable ceasefire between israel and almost not an immediate cease fire, but a sustainable ceasefire. but it's a different position from where the americans are. it's very different from where

the war went on russia, ukraine, where the us was. so. busy aligned with all of nato, here in the us is largely by itself. and the allies are taking a position. it's more it came to what you see in the global south, frankly, because they are also calling for the immediate release of all passages. everyone is saying that, but you've gotten, you've already released the hostages that were easy to release and were easy to negotiate for when you're talking about man of fighting age. it's a lot harder and then how much is going to drive a much tougher deal. also with a mouse getting blown up to a much greater degree of, you know, they, they increasingly see the israel is the old war cabin, is willing to go after them individually. while there's not as much reason for them to negotiate. it's kind of like the position that you're getting for goes it had when he finally decided to march on moscow is not like that was a winning strategy. but he was kind of out of options, right? so, i mean, if you're homeless right now, your willingness to negotiate short of things, but the non, you know, government are completely unwilling to provide you really,

really limited. so you can call for this all you want. and they've been, you know, general assembly resolutions that have demanded overwhelming majorities demanding a ceasefire, but also the release of all hostages. well, israel said no to one side, but a mazda said very clear, no, the other as well. we always get a straight scoop from in bremar, in bremar, president and founder of the political risk consultancy, the razor group. really thank you so much for joining us today. is it? so what's the bottom line from america's perspective? israel's future and security have sort been dealt with is a sacred issue that couldn't be discussed with the same kind of given take that say the security of europe is discussed. that's one of the reasons why a state of palestine or justice for palestinians has been a 3rd real topic in america for decades. but that may just be changing. the us defense secretary is warning out loud. that is real, may suffer strategic defeat and young people in america are dismayed by what

they're seeing. and they're promising to withhold support from president joe biden . this price is changing and affecting american politics. that doesn't mean the equation of us support for israel, structural indifference to palestine changes tomorrow, but it does mean the equation is no longer cost free. it means more americans are paying attention and the past belief the palestine future can be shoved out of you . and under the rug isn't just no longer viable. maybe just maybe a different world is shaping up. and that's the bottom line. the you have the solve, the

man went to the usually puts in color does it is i'm of quotes sold and as one of the social i know in the message just has the method is just where the come a little of each of us seems to be just depending on how you been have been done, what? all

right, well, we're not moving to the most of the pop up with the highly toxic pesticides linked to elevate to the occurrences of parkinson's disease in the farm. as we used for you ever warned about the health effects of hardware, no fault lines exposes how for decades a global chemical giant withheld information. while 1000 american problems, he actually said he should never put the words per quad parkinson's disease in the same sentence. the pesticides play book on a jersey, the zeros here to report on the people often ignored but who must be hurt. how many other channels can you say? we'll take the time and put extensive followed into reporting from under reported areas. of course, we cover major global events that are passion lies in making sure that you're

hearing the stories from people in places like how is fine with the young man regions. and so many others. we go to them, we make the effort. we care straight the the number of palestinians killed and israel's war and gaza has reached 20000, including pull them 8000 children. the fellow i'm down, jordan, this is honestly or a life. so that's coming up. it's reading forces continue, the nike rates across the occupied westbank. we live in ramallah or united nations security council vote coating for a whole to the finding of cause

a is delayed for israel does not have to choose.