the democratic rights, so obviously being trampled on will only be living in a talk, receives dictatorships pursue as expressed concern about a boat, a dispute between venezuela and guyana, which has intensified following the case deployment of a warship off the guy on his coast. that is what his president nicholas my doro, has described, the arrival of the h. i'm as trent, as a provocation and a threat. president madura has ordered more than 5000 military personnel to take pon and exercises near the border in response to the case sending of worship to the area of venezuela and guy on i looked in a dispute over the oil rich as a keep a region of a french president, annual macro has been criticized for appearing to support the act as your identified. you, your faces multiple allegations of sexual assault. and one of right. it comes off with these paper. the feet are published a less are appealing for the public not to a raised due over the allegations. police reports 0 default. yeah. one of

the last sacred joints of french cinema says google accounts, how the act was described. let's have published by 56 celebrity support as this week is that he claims he was being lynched over allegations of rape and sexual assault. it's caused outrage among those who say women's voices are being suppressed about mean, there's not just one person making accusations. there are quite a few. i think there are real questions to be asked about the about you could put this is why should he be protects hes just because he's an imposing figure? there are young women who have suffered silly president, a manual micro has also stepped into the arguments a misery. jimmy solution is one thing. you never seen me in mind. hundreds. what are the tests? when people say the worst about one person without him having the chance to defend himself through legal proceedings, they put legal proceedings will take that costs more than 3 years have passed since that project was charged with rape. we see that he's been accused of sexual

harassment and assault, find more than a dozen. women footage was at this month of the 75 year old making sexual comments on the 2018 trip to north korea. society told that president francois alone is criticized micros defense of the acts up remote. this is what was expected to talk about women and not to say that they did was a great doctor. know we are not proud of it, but yeah. and some in 2017 macro with through the laser. don't don't a word from the us movie producer harvey weinstein. these crimes of right and sexual assault. but down the me to movement. macro stands sofa. suggest the work to be doing the same to dep. i'll just pull rece aldi's era, and that's it for me. so now i'll be back with more news at the top of the i'll that's off the counting, the cost the we don't simply focus on the public accept the conflict. it's the consequence of

war. the human suffering definitely the 4th time. it is one of the most serious thoughts of violence. in recent years, we brave bullets involved because we give voice to those demanding freedom the rule of law. and we always include the views from all sides, the hello, i'm, adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was just a slow down at the international trade, storing depth levels, high inflation of the high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a, china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to full power, slowing growth of the amount that affect the rest of the world. and the economic impact of, as well as war on jobs that even as oil prices have been affected,

concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly held fundraising, interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent and the 3rd quarter. the quickest pace in nearly 2 years. food and fuel prices have come down, boss inflation that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment. but 1st, a report from pre and hooked all the holding interest rates study. the u. s. federal reserve signals. it's done with hikes at his last meeting of the year in december. since march 2022, it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation. which is not slowing after hitting a 40 year high in january 2022 at it's fine with me. 30 p of central bank followed

the fits lead, leaving rates on changed. but century bank is a warning. it would be premature to declare victory orientation. we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth, that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures and weren't seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't know, we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world are worried about inflation. china has the opposite problem. deflation, prices are falling with domestic demand weekend, bye high due to unemployment on a property crisis. and there's the rhetoric from washington about the coupling this economy from between the international monetary fund is wanting. a fragmentation in depa block centered around the us and china re swiping trillions of dollars from global output. china is no longer the largest trading partner to the us and its share view as inputs have fallen by on was 10 percentage points in 5 years. from 22

percent in 2018 to 13 percent. and the 1st half of this year the trade restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have affectively cub chinese imports of terrorist products. faltering demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising. despite concerns about the product conflict in the mid least and use or production is that a record high? limiting the impact of production costs by opec plus exposures of 2023 has been a year of economic surprises. define productions of global recession was sent to bonds, explore interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections and key economies bring addition uncertainty to 2024 bianca group, the others here. let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3

guests from london, we're joined by johnny robinson. charlie is the head of macros strategy. at the f, i am populous, as well as the author of the time traveling economist from miami, florida. we're joined by surely. you should, he is a senior practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school. i'm from co home, which went by of mad hell out of that is practice director of the middle east, north africa region at global council. welcome to your charlie. let's start with you. a world wide recession had been widely predicted by economists in 2023. and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew it's fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened as well, i mean, as, as, as a time of the economy as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades most as the ninety's. and that was

just uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get you to go. there's more because of the lowest ever rates in 40 years in the careers and very few i've had to take on you because even this, right, so i taught the pay stub with those fixes that really helped. and that's certainly all those types of payments. and that cash support in 20202021. just last longer than that. i think most people expect it surely was less than has been can be drawn for 2024 from. i mean, i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic development of 2023. i like

the way you frame it. it's just now i the gentleman mention about fiscal stimulus in the united states, and i think that is the less than that can be trans uh, transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. i'm pull fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china is infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the threshold. and so 2024 is likely to be a structure full year for china, not only public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump billions of dollars into the uh, strategic technological sectors. from somebody, conductors to a i to e, be successful. so you're looking at china. so fiscal stimulus, i think, you know, that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will boost the market confidence

a confidence restored somewhat. that'll help to support consumer spending and therefore the economy will pick up from their offer. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward of the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla and your top 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy power as well. i will be assigned to benefits for the next round, the commodity cycle in prison. the energy prices as when the supervisor, the civil, was in power earlier when he passed. if i probably will prices you would think, leave the going account to raise, try out. you find most of ours, the us, you're trying their hardest to. a strategy ties within the category to china. we've

always in the views with canada where the murder of a c active is in canada and the west of the top of the responses to, to the extent on what it actually is, what do you see brazil wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use the breaks or the expansion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation? this here case gives you a preferable for us. is it going to continue to fall off a central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fold and the mock is very much on track. in fact, but i think china and i'm what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. china is real, estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be side prolonged that i think china is going to try and export. it's right out of its recession. and that means it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel,

which is now getting dumps on the drive with markets. it's become well biggest car exports in. well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get uh, getting pricing done. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlook for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stack that has made over the last year. yeah, i'm the think the boxes, i think what we owe and having to recognize that the europeans major trade off. and they said we have to top uh, energy dependence on on periods. and we can no longer trust them on, on that as cowardly cost. i'm not cost is being born largely by jim industry, jasmine manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia, use the house. and we're seeing tire of life. our numbers. they will be in adjustment and the fact that energy price is a form and so much in the last,

just in the last month or $2.00, tells us that that actually this scroll must be self corrected, declared the low energy prices back for help german manufacturing start to get back on track through 2024. but yeah, europe is looking week as we enter 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to to stem this trend of folding prices? of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted, which is interesting, is actually the lingering on certain t surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course, so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized loans to chinese real estate developers. in order to arrest the real estate market decline, however, in the central government,

so you cannot work conference that happened recently. the real estate was not even nation. so we're still looking at a fairly painful year. has for the chinese real estate markets, they have more what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the costs. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it a while you see where to look at the globe experience so. so in the recent decade saw it real realistically. khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at so from peak to 12th, for that we only see cycle. it took japan 13 years to reach the bottom of the we obviously cycle. i need to tell us about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 in japan's k. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time,

what's the real estate bubble 1st for the markets in the, particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese re, all the sage prices happens on a more cpa or true. i scale posts in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese real estate bubble. first in 1990, however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states is the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that, so the, the real nice, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly and by comparison to japanese, so a central bank, so a sense of what's, rather i would say has the chance at the pointing time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to

a large extent also depends on the chinese, the central government. so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying is economic was, what affect the rest of us in 2024, it was a bar sink on the, in the world. so if you look at least the try to get some service for oil and gas the flow from, from, from the region. so the 4 countries that defend over run lead on the use of our, the recall, the saw, the metals now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for release. and i was depressed investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary cost from production. but the producers, charlie spent a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is, is that happening in practice now?

now i already know that despite ordered the efforts to try to get the service trying to remains max here from, i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the states. but i just want to touch on that last question. also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're seeing as a savvy and u a e, is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure and not infrastructure investment. also talked about and child china is, is part of a society trying to diversify its economies of trillion dollar economy. it's actually playing is one of the great stories of somebody and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet for 20 twenties to help out die. so because you, even if the price is a little bit low, we'll come onto our prices in just a minute. but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china is built on road initiative given that the, the only major west of them, but it's only as pulled out the more precisely the g. 7 members

indeed died september to change. however, the builder wrote a conference, so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00. so for incremental vending facilities to the developing countries, i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally change is cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in its power, future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful i use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar wind,

how much will you be successful? it has a global dominant position, the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying to so supply chain support and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of flow strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed a support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of mulatto. so the street and block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on, on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships. we're saying between china and middle eastern states,

it was increasing the economical partnership is what is mainly the relationship of importing an exporting world. but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies and china and investing infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the gospel movie these bunk brought to the egypt as well . but increasingly, they want to incorporate all the things like a, a, i, some even doctors, altamont, or the energy industry. so there is a grazer thing to gratian on on various other hydrocarbons. so you will receive the was uh, from a sheet of paper here this year and address for kids a bunch of, uh by and yes. so the grades are meeting to the come to the previous years outside of vanity. okay. and that's, that's still further about oil prices have risen and the initial days of the, of, as well as war on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot a why the middle east conflict since then prices of

a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy as well? this is about the markets. funding americans is about increasing supply in rapport smashes like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long quarter to big numbers, increasing the production brazil, piano and you have we can do that. so any demands at the same time from china and your laura, what one of the price prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove, i called earlier was, was, let's say a high interest rates and higher costs are waiting on on growth. generally, of course, satisfied poverty sector. and the exponent phenomena goals are going are, are waiting on uh, oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have a real impact on oil prices. and it's also the market participants have kind of

assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will not be whitening and will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows, an african colored. pick a pick plus do anything to stem, the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their cost, their voluntary cost, the and september salvia and russia. that's part of the best way to reduce the production by 1000000 barrels per day of the sellers are off the photo shoots, but it doesn't seem to be working because the, the cups are being offset by this massive increase in this disclose testament to the resilience of the us shared and destroying us, oil and gas production, and the whatever they be written off, they come back and they're now producing at the us the preeminence or the producer

around the 20 leading bows space compared to savvy, which is on average 11 or 12000000 barrels a day, and these cuts in an attempt to call off the products are actually reducing the market share of salad units for uh over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this will receives for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production. now that you know, it took a little while to come through, and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not stronger producing and quite as well. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable and it's going to county office sometime. but what will change is the mom's suppose want, as interest rates come down, because low breaking down depression, central banks, competitive rate cuts out on the demand side. it's going to save a lot of countries. i'm just like packing stop. kenya. that being facing mature

debt issues, i'm not going to find like them all for a lot easier with the process. so i think it's just coming into contact to tons to, to come yet you surely to, to what extent is china is slow down, impacting upon those, those or forwarding, or prices in china is the world's the largest, the energy importers. so china, so slowing economy obviously will cost the uncertainty and future shops are not only $2.00 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including i war, etc. and the, if you have noticed the recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china and chinese have been buying a lot of goals are pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i 10 to 15 percent premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have a huge impact to, to the global commodity. so supply chain. but so i,

i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of meet the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us trying to do competing happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you somebody, conductors, us so, so i'm a conduct a company. so from, and bd to call company intel accept, you still have a huge market share in china. you and d, d is case out possibly around 25 percent of his global revenue comes from china. so now you have us summer conduct a companies that are looking for a comparable market, the size of trying those and are just simply not out there. i mean, while the chinese companies have the money, but there are just to play things out there, the chinese cannot buy. so you are looking at both the buyers and sellers, and the f. b. either of, you know,

especially operators along the supply chain are going to going to a rather painful process for quite a long time. all right, finally, i want to touch on, on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on uh, shipping costs and how concerned is the industry about date that the bob l mind up straight the cost is increasing insurance cost increasing the risk paying for charters and i'm afraid industry, the state of hormones actually say to pharmacy even more important than the oil, 12.5 percent of the global seaborne world trade transits. the 3, the formulas above another is less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global arteries and the us state of them have been happening since

the operator facility must have this route, but they were happening before and they haven't really moving. what advice if you believe the oil pressure, the $73.00 a barrel and you, you usually get the largest price? indeed, incidence of demarcus believes that the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need more than that. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are times where he strikes returning for sikes from israel on arranging for structuring over 5 years. honestly, the foremost is lost or disrupted for any for any reason that we could see some very distinct scenarios when the price of oil, the world bank, at this stage of perhaps the one up to 150 $7.00 a balance with a lot of dollars a barrel, which would be a huge little shock and would be a deal. okay. oil, my shock with brush on your credit. so. okay. that i'm afraid we must edit many thanks. indeed to you old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week. if you like to comments on anything that you've seen,

you can get in touch with us on x. i'm at a set again. the, please try to remember the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the costs out a 0 dot net is our email address. as always, this table, if you online it out, is 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost in doha. i agree, instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next, the a settled time upfront takes on the big issue. studies of post types to what is happening now . it says it's cool. thanks. 3 questions. professionals about 5 unflinching questions. rigorous. the bank that he added to today is that another mcclin's thing

is taking place. augusta. nothing goes into gauze or without us your permission. nothing leads got that without result permission to allow me to push back for a moment, demanding and fees, fire demanding an end to the root causes of all of this violence upfront without 0 . hard hitting in to be used as a un ambassador position given to you by or does have both. you've described that is better than is better than any thoughts providing answers my question to you. all the good coups i think, is the most difficult press than our part to answer facing realities. us veto in the security council. this is a may just something go because it did x or to hear the story on told to how does era the

the israel steps of it says, strikes this time killing a journalist and 6 family members at his home in central cause. the whole is, this is all just the rely from the also coming up on the i, i definitely, or i all the, all i get into sped. we hear from the survivors of an s tri county residential building and southern gaza with many people. with sheltering.