majority of origin times like himself voted for change. monica not give all g a 0. when a site is. priscilla is cooling for calm as tensions between venezuela and guy on over the dispute into all of which is a keyboard region escalates fitness while in prison. nicholas madura has launched a major military exercise of the guy on the cost of ruffling reports. so you mean for example, so turn it off, come by pin based military drills taking place near vin as well as border with diana. then as well and president eco as modal is calling it a defensive exercise. following the deployment of the british royal navy patrol vessel the h m s trent to the waters near the coast of brianna. yeah, allow me and i saw that. i know you. this is the threat of the united kingdom against a noble know peaceful but brave people, the people venezuela. we spoke with foreign ministers and with prime ministers here in that they will demand it kind of stop the arrival of this threatening ship. and

the guy on it has privately rectified that to, to receive the trusting ship of the decadent british ex empire. tensions between venezuela and diana have been on the rise over the esc. we bought a large jungle region which has been contested by both countries for decades. and was found to host vast oil deposits off its shores in 2015 guy. and these officials have denied making any actions of provocation against spend as well. but have also defended the arrival of the british warship to go into calling it a routine visit. we don't have any, a plan to take offense if action against venezuela, whatever we do here is to being low gene and that's been long plan. and it's part of our building a defensive capability in diana. earlier this month, the leaders of both countries met in person and signed an agreement to avoid the

use of force um its height intentions while the border dispute between venezuela and again, it is before the international court of justice. experts say it could be years before a final ruling. one was it up a little algebra. q in peace keepers will complete their withdrawal from molly on sunday, the decade and long mission to counter i. some sizes has handled. i have a control of one of his largest can send that northern 10 bucks to region. molly's military june to ask you in security council to withdrawal of the troops this year . and thousands of people have gathered in a military base and each is capital to celebrate the departure of french troops, the prime ministers of an issue between a foster and molly attendants, the really to the headlines as always that website l g 0 dot com has the licensed on allow top story states you in time counting, the cost is coming up. the

it is a tenant of journalist to produce objective these problems, which is true. i don't think that there is a fair objective, any partial of the presentation. the listening post covers how the use is the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was just a slow down at the international trade storing depth levels, high inflation of the high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a, china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to full power, slowing growth of the amount that affect the rest of the world. and the economic

impact of, as well as war on jobs that even as oil prices have been effected, concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly held fundraising, interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent and the 3rd quarter. the quickest pace in nearly 2 years. food and fuel prices have come down, boss inflation that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment. but 1st, a report from pre and hook up to holding interest rates study the u. s. federal reserve signals. it's done with hikes at us last meeting of the year in december. since march 2022, it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation. which is not slowing after hitting

a 40 year high in january 2022. and it's fine with me to do a pm central bank followed the feds lead, leaving rates on changed, but century bank is a warning. it would be premature to declare victory orientation we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth. that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures and weren't seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't, no, we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world are worried about inflation. china has the opposite problem. deflation, prices are falling with domestic demand weekend, bye high due to unemployment out of property crisis. and there's the rhetoric from washington about the coupling this economy from between the international monetary fund is wanting. a fragmentation in depa block centered around the us and china re swiping trillions of dollars from global output. china is no longer the largest trading partner to the us and its share view as inputs have fallen by on was 10

percentage points in 5 years. from 22 percent in 2018 to 13 percent. and the 1st half of this year the trade restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have affectively cub chinese imports of terrorist products . faltering demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising. despite concerns about the product conflict in the mid least and use or production is that a record high limiting the impact to production costs by opec plus exposures of the 2023 husband a year of economic surprises. define productions of, of global recession was sent to bond 6, the interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections and key economies bring addition uncertainty to 2024 bianca group. the odds here.

let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3 guests from london, we're joined by johnny robinson. charlie is the head of macro strategy at the f i and pop list, as well as the author of the time traveling economist from miami. florida with joined by surely you should, he is a senior practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school and from co home with joint bi off med hello. awesome. it is practice director of the of at least a north africa region at global council. welcome to your chelsea. let's start with you. a world wide recession had been widely predicted by economists in 2023. and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew at its fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened as well? i mean, as, as, as a time of the economy as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades most as the ninety's. and that was

just, uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get you to go. there's more because of the lowest ever rates in 40 years in the careers and very few of had to take on. you could use even this, right? so i taught the pay stub with those fixes that really helped. and that's certainly all those types of payments and that cash for in 20202021. just last longer than that. i think most people expect it surely was less than has been can be drawn for 2024 from. i mean, i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic development of 2023. i like

the way you frame. it's just now i the gentleman mention about fiscal stimulus in the united states, and i think that is the less than that can be trans transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. and poll fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china's infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the threshold. and so 2024 is likely to be a structure full year for china, not only public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump the billions of dollars into the uh, strategic technological sectors from somebody conductors to a, i, to e, b, 6 cetera. so you're looking at china, so fiscal stimulus, i think you know,

that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will post the market confidence a confidence restored somewhat. that'll help to support the consumer spending and therefore the economy will pick up from there often. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward of the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla and your top 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy powers. well, i will be assigned to benefits for the next round, the commodity cycle in prison, energy prices. as when the supervisor, the civil, was in power earlier when he passed. if i probably will, prices you take leave to go into account to raise, try out. you find most of ours the us, you're trying their hardest to a strap. it ties within the category to china,

we've always in the views with canada, where the murder of a c active is in canada, and the west of the top of the responses to, to the extent on funded options. why do you see brazil wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use? the brakes are the fashion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation? this here case gives you a preferable for us. is it going to continue to fall uh uh, central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fold in the mock is very much on track. in fact, but i think china and i'm what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. john is real estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be so prolonged that i think china is going to try and export. it's right out of its recession. and that means it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've

already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel, which is not gonna dump some of the markets. it's become well biggest card exports . yeah. and well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get uh, getting pricing done. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlet for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stacked and has made over the last year. yeah, i'm the think the boxes. i think what we're having to recognize that the european made a trade off. and they said we have to talk a energy dependence on on periods. and we can no longer trust them on, on saturday costs. and that costs with people largely by jim industry, jasmine manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia. it used to have an end with the entire of life. our numbers,

they will be in adjustment and the fact that energy price is a form and so much in the last, just in the last month, which tells us that that actually this girl must be self corrected, declared the low energy processed by for help german manufacturing start to get back on track through 2024. but yeah, europe is looking week as we entered 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to to stem this trend of folding prices? of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted which is interesting is actually lingering on certain tea surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized loans to chinese real estate developers in order to arrest the real estate market

decline. however, in the central government. busy economic work conference that happened recently, the real estate was not even nation, so we're still looking at a fairly painful year. has for the chinese real estate markets, they have what, what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the costs. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it as well. you see where to look at the globe experience so. so in the recent decade saw it real realistically. khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at, so from peak to 12th, for that we only see cycle. it took japan, 13 years to reach the bottom of the re, obviously cycle and youtube to us about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 out in japan's k

. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time. what's the real estate bubble 1st for the markets in the, particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese re, all the sage prices happens on a more cpa or true. i scale both in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese real estate bubble. first in 1990, however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states is the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that, so the, the real use, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly. and by comparison to japanese, so central bank, so a sense of what's rather on,

i would say hesitant at the point in time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to a large extent also depends on the chinese, the central government. so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying his economic was? what affect the rest of us in 2024? it was a lot of stick on the, in the world. so if you look at least the drivers on service for oil and gas the slow from, from, from the region. so about 4 countries that depend only on the power of the recall. so the mental is now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for release, and i was depressed investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary cost from production. but the producers, charlie spent a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is,

is that happening in practice now? now i sort of, you know, i, despite all the efforts to try to get the service trying to remains max here from, i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the sides. um, but i just wanted to touch on that last question also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're sitting at a savvy and you a he is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure and not infrastructure investment been also talked about and jobs. the china is, is part of a society trying to diversify its economies of trillion dollar economy. it's actually playing is one of the great stories with somebody, and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet for 20 twenties to help out die some because you even it for prizes. rivelo will come onto low prices in just a minute. but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china's built on road initiative given that the, the only major west of them,

but it's only as pulled out the more precisely the g. 7 members indeed died except pepito change. however, the builder wrote a conference, so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00. so for incremental vending facilities to the developing countries, i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally changes cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in its power, future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful i use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you

were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar wind, how much will you be successful? it has a global dominant position, the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying to. so supply chain supports and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of the strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed the support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of mulatto. so the street of block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on, on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships. we're saying between

china and middle east and states, it was increasing the economical partnership is what is mainly the relationship of importing an exporting world. but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies and china and investing infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the gospel movie spot brought to the egypt as well. but increasingly they want to incorporate all the things like a, a, i, some of the doctors, altamont, or the energy industry. so there is a grazer of engine ration on, on carriers of a 100 carbon. so you will receive china if you have, i thought it was from a sheet of paper here this year and address for kids a bunch of, uh by and yes. so the grades are meeting the to the come to the previous years, outside of energy. okay. and that's, that's still further about oil prices have risen and the initial days of the, of, as well as will on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot

a why the middle east conflict since then prices of a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy as well? this is about the markets. funding americans is about increasing supply in rapport smashes like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long quarter to big numbers, increasing the production brazil, piano and you have we can do that. so any demands at the same time from china and your laura, what, one of the prices, the prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove of my colleagues here with was, let's say a high interest rates and higher costs are waiting on on growth. generally, of course satisfied poverty sector and the exponent goals are growing our, our wing on uh, oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have

a real impact on oil prices. and it's also the market participants have kind of assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will not be whitening. it will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows, an african color, pick a pick, plus do anything to stem the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their costs are voluntary cost and september salvia and russia . that's part of the best way to reduce the production by 1000000 barrels per day of the sound of the photos soups. but it doesn't seem to be working because the, the cubs are being offset by this massive increase in, let's disclose this testament to the resilience of the us chairman destroying us, oil and gas production, whatever, and agree with them all, they come back and they're now producing the us the preeminence or the producer

around the 20 leading bows they compared to savvy, which is on average 11 and 12000000 barrels a day. and these cuts in an attempt to call off the products are actually reducing the market share of salad units for uh over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this will receives for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production now than you know, it took a little while to come through and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not strongly agree producing and quite slow. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable. and this kind of county office sometimes, but what we'll change is the mom's suppose one as interest rates come down because the oil will break down. depression, central banks, competitive rate cuts out. i'm going to mom's side is gonna save

a lot of countries. i'm just like to stop kenya, that being facing a cheap debt issues, i'm not gonna find like them all for a lot easier with the process. so i think it's just coming into contact to talk to, to come yet you surely to, to what extent is china is slow down, impacting upon those, those or forwarding, or prices of china age. the world is the largest the energy in puerto so china is a slowing economy, obviously will cause to uncertainty. and future shocks are not only 2 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including i war, etc. and the, if you have noticed a recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china, the chinese have been buying a lot of golds arch pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i 10 to 15 percent premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have

a huge impact to, to the global commodity. so supply chain, but uh, um i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of meet the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us, china to company happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you somebody, conductors, us so it's, i'm a conduct a company. so from india to call come in, tell and accept. you still have a huge market share in china. you and d, d is case out possibly around 25 percent of school, but revenue comes from china. so now you have us summer conduct a companies that are looking for a comparable market. the size of trying those, and there's just simply not up there. i mean, while chinese companies have the money, but they are just to play things out there, the chinese cannot buy. so you're looking at both the buyers and sellers,

and the every, either of, you know, especially operators along the supply chain are going to going to a rather painful process for a quite a long time. all right, finally i want to touch on on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on shipping costs. and how concerned is the industry about the date that the bob l mind up straight? the cost is increasing the insurance cost increasing the risk of paying for charters and i'm afraid industry, the state of formulas actually so far was even more important than the oil total price for 5 percent of the global seaborne world trade transits. the 3, the formulas above another is a little less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global

outreach and the us state of them have been happening since the operator facility must have this route but they were happening before and they haven't really moving what advice if you believe the oil price to the $73.00 a barrel? and you, you usually get the largest price. indeed, incidence of demarcus believes that the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need more than that. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are a category strikes. returning for sikes from israel on arranging for structuring over 5 years, obviously the foremost is lost or disrupted for any for any reason that we could see some very streets. and i was when the price of oil, the world bank, at this stage of perhaps going up to $157.00 a thousands of dollars a barrel, which would be a huge oil shop and would be a jewel. okay. oil. my shock with brush on your credit, so. okay, that i'm afraid we must edit many thanks indeed to you, old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week.

if you like to comments on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us on x, i'm at a set again. the, please try to remember the hash tag h i c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the costs out a 0 don't met is our email address. as always, most people, if you online have how does 0 dot com slash ctc, that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on that. but that's it. for this edition of counting the cost in though, huh, i agree. instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next the as 2023 comes to an end. adjust us teams on the ground of work at a higher storage from the continuing conflicts in the frame that's

that's the phone of artillery. east side. this is the news. our license to the war in gusts as we are talking to right now. the sound of it is very from boston and different right now. and the inside of the way to the people who need is the most on the just the president biden says once a 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis. what does anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for, i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? the quizzical look at us politics. the bottom line is the rule rather than the exception for elders to report child abuse, to search and it keeps and it protects the users for

years and years. so no one's ever told me that it wasn't my fault fault lines investigated, state laws in the us that can lead to child sexual abuse and religious institutions going on punished secrets of the clergy on the jersey. the the, you're watching the news, our life from headquarters, in delphi, i'm getting navigate on coming up in the next 60 minutes, con eunice and southern gaza as battered by intense, showing an aerial bombing. the is really military says how mass leaders are hiding in the city. tens of thousands of displace palestinians try to seek safety from the

violence in gaza, southern most city, but up from south africa.