to look a lot like 2020 a rematch between for my president trump. i'm coming president joe biden, but aside from some of the candidates, that's where the similarities and this company. how can you please welcome the president of the united states. the 2024 us selection is likely to be a rematch between president joe biden and former president donald trump. but it's a match up. most polls show a majority of americans don't want at 81 by didn't see all this us president to run for re election. is his age going to be an impediment to him being effective? and that is something that's not going the way. findings approval ratings have hit historic lows. trump is entering 24 with the rising lead above his republican challengers. in familiar form, he's railing against an influx of migrants to the united states. they dump them on

the border and they pour into our country. well campaigning trumps also fighting $91.00 criminal charges until spend much of the us selection season in a court room and also offending the presidential calendar. 2 possible supreme court rulings the 1st could decide if trump can hold public office after colorado state removed him from its ballot for stoping, the 2021 capital riots. the 2nd could decide if trump sum you can prosecute should, for alleged efforts to support the 2020 election. i think the supreme court is going to be not only the x factor, but i think the biggest factor to determine the trajectory of this race. as for election issues, voters sour view of the economy still dominates bite and support of israel's war and gaza with more than 20000 palestinians. killed is dividing the youth vote,

the biding needs for re election. the democrats, like president biden hope, the domestic issues like protecting abortion rights, will galvanize voters after the supreme court in 2020, to overturn the right to an abortion history is also 15 inside since 1912, roughly 75 percent of encompass have one re election kimberly healthcare alger 0, the white house as well. that's it from me dire in jordan. so now the news continues here now to sierra, off to accounting, the cost such a intensive watching bye for now. the it is a tenant of journalist to produce objective these coverage is treated. i don't think

that there is a fair objective and impartial representation. the listening post covers how the use is the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was a 0, a slow down at the international trade, storing depth levels, high inflation, a high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a, china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to full power, slowing growth of the amount that affect the rest of the world. and the economic impact of, as well as we're on jobs, that even as low prices have been effected, concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession

was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly health fund raising interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent and the 3rd course of the quickest pace in nearly 2 years, food and fuel prices have come down boss inflation. that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment, but 1st, a report from pre owned hook up to the holding interest rates study. the u. s. federal reserve signals. it's done with hikes at his last meeting of the year. in december, since march 2022, it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation, which is not slowing after hitting a 40 year high in january 2022. and it's fine with me to do a pm central bank followed the fits lead, leaving rates on changed,

but century bank is a warning. it would be premature to declare victory orientation we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth. that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures and weren't seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't, no, we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world are worried about inflation. china has the opposite problem. deflation, prices are falling with domestic demand weekend, bye high due to unemployment on a property crisis. and there's the rhetoric from washington about the coupling this economy from between the international monetary fund is wanting. a fragmentation in depa block centered around the us and china re swiping trillions of dollars from global output. china is no longer at the largest trading partner to the us and its share view as inputs have fallen by on was 10 percentage points in 5 years. from 22 percent in 2018 to 13 percent and the 1st half of this year the trade

restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have affectively cub chinese imports of terrorist products. faltering demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising. despite concerns about the product conflict in the mid least and use or production is that a record high? limiting the impact of production costs by opec plus exposures of 2023 has been a year of economic surprises. define productions of global recession was sent to bonds, explore interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections and key economies bring addition uncertainty to 2024 bianca group, the others here. let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3 guests from london, were joined by johnny robinson. charlie is the head of macros strategy. at the f,

i am populous, as well as the author of the time traveling economist from miami, florida. we're joined by surely. you should, he is see a practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school, i'm from co home, which went by of mad hell. out of that is practice director of the middle east, north africa region at global council. welcome to your charlie. let's start with you. a world wide recession had been widely predicted by economists in 2023. and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew it's fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened or? well, i mean, as, as, as a time of the economy as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades most since the ninety's. and that was just, uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw

a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get to go, there's more because of the lowest ever rates in 40 years in the careers and very few i've had to take on you because even this, right? so i taught the pay stub with those fixes that really helped and that's certainly all those types of payments. and that cash for in 20202021. just last longer than that, i think most people expect it surely was less than has been can be drawn for 2024 from i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic development of 2023. and i like the way you frame it. it's just now i the gentleman mention about fiscal

stimulus in the united states, and i think that is the less than that can be trans uh, transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. i'm pull fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china is infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the threshold. and so 2024 is likely to be a structure full year for china, not only public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump billions of dollars into the uh, strategic technological sectors. from somebody, conductors to a i to e, be successful. so you're looking at china. so fiscal stimulus, i think, you know, that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will boost the market confidence a confidence restored somewhat. that'll help to support consumer spending and

therefore the economy will pick up from their offer. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward of the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla and your top 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy powers. well, i will be assigned to benefits for the next round, the commodity cycle in prison, energy prices. as when the supervisor, the civil, wasn't power earlier when you buy a supervisor prices. so you need you to take leave to go into account to raise, try out. you find most of ours, the us, you're trying their hardest to, a strong ties within the category to china. we've always in the views with capital, where the murder of a c active is in canada and the west of the top of the responses to to the incident

on blended options. what do you see for those wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use? the brakes are the expansion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation? this here case gives you a preferable for us. is it going to continue to fall uh uh, central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fold and the mock is very much on track. in fact, but i think china and i'm what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. china is real, estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be side prolonged that i think china is going to try and export. it's right out of its recession. and that means it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel, which is now getting dumps on the drive with markets. it's become well biggest car

exports in. well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get uh, getting pricing done. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlet for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stack that has made over the last year. yeah, i'm the think the boxes, i think what we owe and having to recognize that the europeans made a trade off. and they said we have to talk a energy dependence on on periods. and we can no longer trust them on an as cowardly cost. i'm not. cost is being bone largely by jim an industry german manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia. it used to have an end with the entire of life. our numbers, they will be in adjustment and the fact that energy price is a form and so much in the last, just in the last month, which tells us that that actually this scroll must be self corrected,

declared the low energy prices back for help german manufacturing start to get back on track through 2024. but yeah, europe is looking week as we enter 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to to stem this trend of folding prices? of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted, which is interesting, is actually the lingering on certain t surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course, so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized loans to chinese real estate developers. in order to arrest the real estate market decline, however, in the central government, so you cannot work conference that happened recently. the real estate was not even

nation. so we're still looking at a fairly painful year ahead for the chinese real estate markets. them what, what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the costs. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it. a while you see where to look at the globe experience so. so in the recent decade, so it's a real realistically khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at, so from peak to 12th for that we only see cycle. it took japan, 13 years to reach the bottom of the we obviously cycle. i need to tell us about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 in japan's k. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time. what's the real estate bubble 1st for the markets in the,

particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese re, all the sage prices happens on a more cpa or true. i scale both in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese. so we will be state bubble 1st in 1990. however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states is the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that, so the, the real use, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly and by comparison to japanese, so a central bank. so a stands uh, was rather odd. i would say has the chance at the pointing time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to a large extent also depends on the chinese,

the central government. so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying is economic was, what affect the rest of us in 2024. it was a lot of stick on the, in the world. so if you look at least the try to get some service for oil and gas the flow from, from, from the region. so the 4 countries that defend over run lead on by revenue just our, the recall the saw, the mentors. now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for lease and double the price investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary costs from production. but the producers, charlie spent a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is, is that happening in practice now? now i already know that despite ordered the efforts to try to get the service

trying to remains max here from, i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the states. but i just want to touch on that last question. also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're seeing as a savvy and u a e is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure and not infrastructure investment, but also talked about and child china is, is part of a society trying to diversify its economies of trillion dollar economy. it's actually playing is one of the great stories of somebody and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet for 20 twenties to help out die. so because you, even if the price is a little bit low, we'll come on to a lower price, isn't just some of that, but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china is built on road initiative given that the, the only major west of them, but it's only as pulled out the more precisely the g 7 members are indeed died september to change. however, the builder wrote a conference,

so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00. so for incremental vending facilities to the developing countries, i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally change is cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road, the initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in its power, future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful i use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar wind, how much will you be successful? it has a global dominant position,

the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying to. so supply chain supports and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of the strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed the support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of mulatto. so the street and block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on, on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships. we're saying between china and middle eastern states, it was increasing the economical partnership is what is mainly the relationship of

importing an exporting world. but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies and china and investing infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the gospel movie spot brought to the egypt as well. but increasingly, they want to cooperate all the things like a, a, i, some of the doctors, altamont, or the energy industry. so there is a grazer of integration on, on carry over a 100 carbons, so you will receive the final was from a sheet of paper here, this year, and address for kids a bunch of, uh, by and yes. so the grades are meeting the to the come to the previous years outside of energy. okay. and that's, that's still further about oil prices have risen and the initial days of the, of, as well as war on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot a why the middle east conflict since then prices of a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy as

well? this is about the markets. funding americans is about increasing supply in rapport smashes like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long quarter to big numbers, increasing the production brazil, piano and you have we can do that. so any demands at the same time from china and your laura, what one of the price prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove, i called earlier was, was, let's say a high interest rates. and higher costs are wing on, on growth. generally, of course satisfied properties sector and the exponent and all my goals are going are, are waiting on the oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have a real impact on oil prices. and it's also the market participants have kind of assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will

not be whitening and will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows, an african co pick, pick plus do anything to stem the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their cost, their voluntary cost, the, and september salvia and russia. that's part of the big bass. uh, reduce the production by 1000000 barrels per day of the sellers are off the photo shoots, but it doesn't seem to be working because the, the cups are being offset by this massive increase in this disclose this testament to the resilience of the us shared and destroying us oil and gas production and the whatever they agree with them all, they come back and they're now producing at the us the preeminence or the producer around the 20 leading bows. they compared to savvy, which is on average 11 or 12000000 barrels

a day. and these cuts in an attempt to call the products are actually reducing the market share of salad units for uh, over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this will receives for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production. now that you know, it took a little while to come through and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not stronger produce and, and quite as well. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable and it's going to county office sometime. but what we'll change is the amount supposed one as interest rates come down, because low oil will break down inflation, central banks, competitive rate cuts out on the demand side. it's going to save a lot of countries. i'm just like packing stop. kenya. that being facing mature debt issues, i'm not going to find like them all from on easier with the process. so i think

this is coming into contact to tons to, to come yet you surely to, to what extent is china is slowed down, impacting upon those, those or forwarding, or prices in china is the world's the largest, the energy in puerto. so china is a slowing economy, obviously it will cost the uncertainty and future shops are not only $2.00 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including i war, etc. and the, if you have noticed the recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china and chinese have been buying a lot of goals are pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i tend to 15 percent premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have a huge impact to, to the global commodity. so supply chain. but so i, i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of meet

the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us trying to do competing happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you somebody, conductors, us so, so i'm a conduct a company. so from, and bd to call company intel accept, you still have a huge market share in china. you and d, d is case out possibly around 25 percent of his global revenue comes from china. so now you have us summer conduct a companies that are looking for a comparable market. the size of trying those and are, is just simply not out there. i mean, while the chinese companies have the money, but there are just to play things out there, the chinese cannot buy. so you are looking at both the buyers and sellers, and the f. b. either of, you know, especially operators along the supply chain are,

are going to going to a rather painful process for quite a long time. all right, finally, i want to touch on, on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on uh, shipping costs and how concerned is the industry about date that the bob l mind up straight. the cost is increasing the insurance cost increasing the risk of paying for charters and i'm afraid industry, the state of form was actually straightforward. was even more important than the oil 12.5 percent of the global seaborne world. trade transit is the 3, the foremost above another is a little less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global arteries and the us state of them have been happening since the operator facility between mazda of this route. but they were happening before, and they haven't really moving what advice if you believe the oil pressure,

the $73.00 a barrel and you you usually the largest price? indeed, incidence of demarcus believes that the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need more than that. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are times where he strikes returning for sikes from israel on ready to start during over 5 years. honestly, the foremost is lost or disrupted for any, for any reason. that we could see some very distinct scenarios when the price of oil, the world bank, at this stage of perhaps the $1.00 up to $157.00 balance with a lot of dollars a barrel. which would be a huge little shock and would be a jewel. okay. oil, my shock with brush on your credit. so. okay, that i'm afraid we must edit many things indeed to you old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week. if you like to comments on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us on x. i'm at

a set again the, please try to remember the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the costs out of 0 dot net is our email address. as always, this table, if you online it out to 0 dot com slash ctc, that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost in doha. i agree instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next the this horse was a non marked and simple beat from the remains of cars and ambulances, israel talking to during an invasion of things, you need refugee camp in 2002. now it's been removed by the way people dozers, and it shows us where this cultures to his power. he was involved in creating the

destruction of one humans, aims to crush their spirit and punish those, showing support for any acts of resistance. had to choose his 5 year old son, add them photos of them working on this culture and says the process tells a lot about the need to i guess. and again, frank assessments. the problem is that is there is allowed to be outside that acts of international law. and one of the reasons that should be the is the fact that is it and has declared war on okay. parts people informed opinions, the medical infrastructure of an entire society has been completely destroy the people who will feel that destruction 1st and most be the women and children inside story on out just sierra and president biden says once a 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis what does anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for?

i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy. and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? a quizzical look at us politics. the bottom line. the, the israel continues this are limitless as strikes across guns. at least 12 people are killed in a house in the center of the street. the other ones are enjoying this as long as they are a license though. so coming benjamin netanyahu says israel should take control of the philadelphia, colorado on guns as boot with egypt. confrontations in the occupied westbank as his writing thoughts, his around 2 hospitals and 2 caught him block entrances to the north, shuns refugee.