do it right now, you just have a random black market, 90 percent of vices accessing products that have no products, standards under the table, and find them for your crime syndicates and way to sign you can tax and regulate better products. the consumers can access that argument has full and on diffuse with the straw to now legislating some of the toughest nicotine controls in the world's sarah clock out a 0. sidney hire can otis devastated mexico's acapulco region on october. the 25th reducing homes to rubble and killing at least 50 people with many mole missing. many of the cities residents are still clearing up from the disaster of its last seen as taught us as a single mother who lost the house. is her story and her own was so yeah, and the daughter, my name is annette martinez torres, i'm taking an electrical course to be able to rebuild my house after hurricane during the fall,

i used to work in tourism. i don't do it anymore because everything was destroyed after hurricane noticed. there was no work for me. that's like outside conflict, a mental house was completely destroyed. none of the pool was, were straight, the structure was all bent, it was all over the place. half of it was down, there was not even a single sheet on the roof. everything had been blown off. of course, of course i don't mind, but if there's something in the course that i'm taking in electricity and will help me repair my house, we plan to build something a little safer. now. also the neighbors have been very, very good. so you know, so that's also why i'm doing it, but i have to help others. and i also help myself a little bit, a little cabinet. i never in my life imagined i would be taking an electrical power out that i had other things in my mind that after hurricane noticed, it's a good solution to this when i went with somebody. and then they teach you the

basics, like how to put a light bulb in to change circuit breakers to change a box or to connect switches and light. okay, yes, i don't think the taboo has been broken that women cannot do things that we can't learn electricity or masonry just because we are women. you know, let's close us gay, you'll get us. it is, and one of the things i want to do is to do my bids, to rebuild this beautiful a couple go. that has always helped us all over the phone. so i'm very happy to be able to do it as a also even with our lease. and well that's, it's for this, our web back of the top of the alpha, another full show with more coverage on the 1000 as well as the other days. news always now with causative across the the latest news, as it breaks, time movies have been under the rubber for more than 10 hours. this is not the only

area targeted by that is there enforcement with detailed coverage the wolf is keeping source away palestinian business owners here say they have seen nothing like this ever before. exclusive reports many here say they refuse to give up on hope in the middle of the killing, suffering and pain. it's the $16.00 left for them. the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was a 0, a slow down and international trade storing debt levels, high inflation of the high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a. china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to false. how will slowing

growth of the month that affect the rest of the world and the economic impact of as well as we're on jobs, that even as low prices have been effected, concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly held fund raising interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent and the 3rd course of the quickest pace in nearly 2 years, food and fuel prices have come down boss inflation that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment, but 1st report from pre and hook up to the whole thing. interest rates study, the u. s. federal reserve signals. it's done with hikes at his last meeting of the year. in december, since march 2022,

it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation. which is not slowing after hitting a 40 year high in january 2022 at it's fine with me. 30 p of central bank follow the defense lead, leaving rates on changed. but century bank is a warning. it would be premature to declare victory orientation that we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth. that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures and weren't seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't, no, we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world are worried about inflation. china has the opposite problem. deflation prices are fully with domestic demand, weakened by high youth unemployment out of property crisis. and there's the rhetoric from washington about the coupling us economy from between the international monetary fund is wanting a fragmentation into pub blog sent it around the us on china re swiping trillions

of dollars from global output. china is no longer the largest trading partner to the us and it share of us imports. the following by on was 10 percentage points in 5 years. from 22 percent in 2018 to 13 percent. and the 1st half of this year the trade restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have effectively cub chinese imports of terrorist products. floating demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising, despite concerns about abroad to conflict in the least and use or production is that a record high? limiting the impact to production costs by opec plus exporters? the 2023 has been a year of economic surprises. define productions of global recession was sent to bonds, explore interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections

and key economies bring addition uncertainty to 2024 bianca group. the odds here. let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3 guests from london, we're joined by johnny robinson. charlie is the head of macros strategy. at the f, i am populous as well as the author of the time traveling economist from miami, florida. we're joined by surely. you should, he is senior practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school, i'm from co home, which went by of mad hell. out of that is practice director of the middle east north africa region at global council. welcome to your charlie. let's start with you. a world wide recession had been widely predicted by economists in 2023. and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew, it's fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened or? well, i mean, as, as, as

a time of the economy as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades. most is the ninety's and that was just uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get you to go. there's more because of the lowest ever rates in 40 years in the careers and very few i've had to take on you because even this, right, so i taught the pay stub with those fixes that really helped. and that's certainly all those types of payments. and that cash for in 20202021. just last longer than that. i think most people expect it surely was less than has been can be drawn for

2024 from i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic development of 2023. as i like the way you frame it, it's just now i the gentleman mention about fiscal stimulus in the united states and i think that is the less than that can be trans uh, transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. i'm pull fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china is infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the threshold. and so 2024 is likely to be a structure full year for china, not only public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump billions of dollars into the uh, strategic technological sectors. from somebody, conductors, so a i to e, be successful. so you're looking at china. so fiscal stimulus, i think you know,

that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will boost the market confidence a confidence restored somewhat. that'll help to support consumer spending and the for the economy will pick up from their offer. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward of the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla and your top 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy power as well. i will be assigned to benefits for the next round, the commodity cycle in prison, energy prices. as when the supervisor, the civil, was in power earlier when he passed. if i probably will prices you would think leave the going account to raise, try out. you find most of ours, the us,

you're trying their hardest to, a strong ties within the category to china. we've always in the views with canada where the murder of a c active is in canada and the west of the top of the responses to, to the incident on what it actually was. why do you see brazil wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use? the brakes are the fashion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation this here? occasions here preferable for us? is it going to continue to fall central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fold in the mock is very much on track. in fact, but i think china and i'm what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. china is real, estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be side prolonged that i think

china is going to try and export. it's right out of its recession. and that means it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel, which is now getting dumps on the drive with markets. it's become well biggest car exports in. well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get uh, getting pricing done. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlet for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stack that has made over the last year. yeah, i'm the think the boxes, i think what we owe and having to recognize that the europeans major trade off. and they said we have to talk a energy dependence on on periods. and we can no longer trust them on, on that as cowardly cost. i'm not cost is being bone largely by jim industry, jasmine manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia,

use the house. and we're seeing tire of life. our numbers. they will be in adjustment and the fact that energy price is a form and so much in the last, just in the last month, which tells us that that actually this scroll must be self directed, declared the low energy prices back for help german manufacturing start to get back on trucks for 2024, but yeah, europe is looking week as we enter 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to to stem this trend of folding prices? of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted, which is interesting, is actually the lingering on certain t surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course, so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized

loans to chinese real estate developers. in order to arrest the real estate market decline, however, in the central government, so you cannot work conference that happened recently. the real estate was not even nation. so we're still looking at a fairly painful year. has for the chinese real estate markets, they have more what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the cost. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it a while you see where to look at the globe experience so. so in the recent decade, so it's a real realistically khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at, so from peak to 12th for that we only see cycle. it took japan, 13 years to reach the bottom of the we obviously cycle. i need to tell us about 5

years from 2007 to 2012 in japan's k. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time. when's the real estate bubble 1st, a for the markets in the particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese re, all the sage prices happens on a more cpa or true. i scale posts in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese real estate bubble. first in 1990, however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states. it's the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that, so the, the real use, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly. and by comparison to japanese,

so central bank, so a sense of what's rather on, i would say has the chance at the pointing time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to a large extent also depends on the chinese, the central government. so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying is economic was, what affect the rest of us in 2024. it was a lot of stick on the, in the world. so if you look at least the try to get some service for oil and gas the flow from, from, from the region. so the 4 countries that defend over run lead on the use of our, the recall, the saw, the metals now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for release. and i was depressed investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary cost from production. but the producers, charlie spent

a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is, is that happening in practice now? now i already know that despite the efforts to try to get the service trying to remains massive and i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the states. but i just want to touch on that last question. also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're seeing out of savvy and u a e, is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure. and the infrastructure investment also talked about and child china is, is part of a society trying to diversify its economies of trillion dollar economy. it's actually playing is one of the great stories of somebody and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet for 20 twenties to help out die. so because you, even if for prizes rivelo will come onto our prices in just a minute. but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china is built on road initiative,

given that the, the only major west of them. but it's only as pulled out the more precisely the g 7 members indeed died except capital change. however, the builder wrote a conference, so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00. so for incremental vending facilities to the developing countries, i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally change is cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road, the initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in its power, future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful i

use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar wind, how much will you be successful? it has a global dominant position, the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying to. so supply chain supports and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of the strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed the support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of mulatto. so the street and block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on,

on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships. we're saying between china and middle eastern states, it was increasing the economical partnership is what is mainly the relationship of importing an exporting model. but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies and china, and investing in infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the gospel movie spot brought to the egypt as well. but increasingly, they want to cooperate all the things like a, a, i, some of the doctors, altamont, or the energy industry. so there is a greater value to gratian on, on carry over a 100 carbons. so you will receive china if you have, i love it, was from a sheet of paper here this year and address for kayden by check the find us. so this equation meeting be to the come to the previous years outside of energy. okay . and that's, that's still further about oil prices have risen and the initial days of the, of,

as well as war on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot a why the middle east conflict since then prices of a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy as well? this is about the markets. funding americans is about increasing supply in rapport smashes like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long quarter to big numbers, increasing the production brazil, piano and you have we can do that. so any demands at the same time from china and your laura, what one of the price prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove, i called earlier was, was, let's say a high interest rates and higher costs are waiting on, on growth. generally, of course, science public property sector and the exponent phenomena goals are going are,

are waiting on uh, oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have a real impact on oil prices. and it's also the market participants have kind of assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will not be whitening and will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows, an african colored pick, pick plus do anything to stem the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their cost, their voluntary cost, the, and september salvia and russia. that's part of the big bass. uh, reduce the production by 1000000 barrels per day of the sellers are off the photo shoots, but it doesn't seem to be working because the the cubs are being offset by this massive increase in this disclose testament to the resilience of the us chairman

destroying us. oil and gas production and the whatever they agree with them all, they come back and they're now producing at the us the preeminence or the producer around the 20 leading bows space compared to savvy, which is on average 11 or 12000000 barrels a day. and these caught us in an attempt to call off the products are actually reducing the market share of us out of the and it's for uh, over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this will receives for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production. now that you know, it took a little while to come through, and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not stronger producing and quite as well. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable and it's going to county office sometime. but what we'll change is the mom's suppose want, as interest rates come down, because low oil will break down inflation, central banks,

competitive rate cuts out on the demand side. it's going to save a lot of countries. i'm just like packing stop kenya. that being facing mature debt issues, i'm not going to find life and offer a lot easier with the process. so i think this is coming into contact to tons to, to come yet you surely to, to what extent is china is slowed down, impacting upon those, those or forwarding, or prices in china is the world's the largest, the energy importers. so china, so slowing economy obviously will cost the uncertainty and future shops are not only $2.00 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including eye war, etc. and the, if you have noticed the recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china and chinese have been buying a lot of golds arch pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i tend to 15 percent

premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have a huge impact to, to the global commodity. so supply chain. but so i, i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of meet the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us trying to do competing happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you somebody, conductors, us so, so i'm a conduct a company. so from, and bd to call company intel accept, you still have a huge market share in china. you and d, d is case out possibly around 25 percent of his global revenue comes from china. so now you have the us summit, conductor companies that are looking for a comparable market. the size of trying those and are, is just simply not out there. i mean, while the chinese companies have the money,

but there are just to play things out there, the chinese cannot buy. so you are looking at both the buyers and sellers, and the f. b. either of, you know, especially operators along the supply chain are going to going to a rather painful process for quite a long time. all right, finally, i want to touch on, on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on shipping costs? and how concerned is the industry about the, the bob l mind up straight the cost is increasing insurance cost increasing the risk paying for charters and i'm afraid industry, the state of form was actually straightforward. was even more important than the oil 12.5 percent of the global seaborne world trade transits. the 3, the formulas above another is a little less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global

arteries and the us state of them have been happening since the operator facility must have this route, but they were happening before and they haven't really moving. what advice if you believe the oil pressure, the $73.00 a barrel and you, you usually get the largest price? indeed, incidence of demarcus believes that the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need more than that. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are times where he strikes returning for sikes from israel on arranging for structuring over 5 years. honestly, the foremost is lost or disrupted for any for any reason that we could see some very distinct scenarios when the price of oil, the world bank, at this stage of perhaps the one up to 150 $7.00 a balance with a lot of dollars a barrel, which would be a huge little shock and would be a deal. okay. oil, my shock with brush on your credit. so. okay. that i'm afraid we must edit many

thanks. indeed to you old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week. if you like to comments on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us on x. i'm at a set again. the, please try to remember the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the costs out to 0 dot net is our email address. as always, let's press email. if you online it out to 0 dot com slash ctc, that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost in doha. i agree. instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next, the knows garza evacuated, the sun. eunice can use the monthly what this location. well that it moves. 3 weeks

time people are going to die. home destroyed in brooklyn city, an area that is supposed to be safe. longstanding is really policy. shoot anything that moves. there aren't any sit varies, and garza my supposed to sleep on the street with my children. there's no protection, there's no safe space. this printer is going to be in a huge problem about a stimulus of living on the desktop. people crowded in very small areas with a lot of diseases from the north to the south, nowhere and district the same. * the us is always of interest to people. all right, the world people pay attention to this one here. and i'll just see this very good. they're bringing the news to the world from here. the, [000:00:00;00]

the, [000:00:00;00] the hello, i'm sammy's a them, this is the news. our live from dell coming off in the next 60 minutes face fighting in central garza as well and funds the refugee camp. while i'm us claims to have an invoice is ready for us. is