person, mcfields and others were injured. we also understand that there was damage to residential buildings, resulting in fires. now the training and say the west and city of eve, the central city of the need for the southern city of because i've all talked to 5 russian drones. this has been a busy few days for the ukrainians. defending russian areas assaults the ukrainians themselves, have launched drones at russian targets, but it does come after the friday, the 29th of december attack the wide sky russian attack talking cities across the ukraine. now, as a result of the casualties suffered as a result of the attack, the merit of keys vitale. cage code of declared the 1st of january a day of mourning here in the capital asset bake, which is 0. keith accord in banker the ash a sentence, a nobel peace prize winning, but how many units to 6 months in jail? because in the capital duyka found units guilty of violating labor laws, who was given 30 days to appeal against a ruling unit. k 5 did

a grow mean to come the countries because mobile telecommunications company sits at the center of the trial sounds independent. the human rights commission says it's, i'm likely february's parliamentary relations will be free and fair. the commission express concerned about the government's rejection of political nominees, including full, the prime minister in rudco and other members of his policy. com is in jail for corruption defenses. the commission will say to condemn the state come down on descent and assault on minorities. this is a view of familiar back and in doing this of party workers and supporters. lack of transparency concerning the j changes in the judges involved crackdowns on far the work goes right to peaceful assembly in false disappearances. it is a p, a has signed to deal with small is breakaway region of somebody onto secure access

to the red sea under the agreement. if you will be allowed to use somebody lands main pool to barbra. it offers an african base at the entrance to the vital c channels of shipping. somebody lands president says, in return, if you, if you recognize somebody that one of the we are very happy and we think the shipping department just as we signed the agreement here. we have allowed them to columbus as a bossy, and they would also recognize us as an independent states, although they will become the 1st state to recognize somebody logged off to the signing of this memorandum of understanding. alright, that's all the main use difficult website out. the 0 dot com relates comments and analysis at kind of the costs coming right up. it's usually the one thing i might be covering politics like post to think from serbia into a hungry. what's most important to me is talking to people,

understanding what they are going through, so that i can be the headlines in the most human way possible. we believe everyone has a story worth hearing. the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was a 0, a slow down and international trade storing debt levels, high inflation of the high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a. china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to false. how will slowing growth of the amount that affect the rest of the world and the economic impact of as well as we're on jobs that even as oil prices have been effected,

concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly held fund raising interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent and the 3rd course of the quickest pace in nearly 2 years, food and fuel prices have come down boss inflation that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment, but 1st report from pre owned cocoa. so holding interest rates study, the u. s. federal reserve signals, it's done with hikes at his last meeting of the year in december. since march 2022, it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation, which is not slowing after hitting a 40 year high in january 2022. and it's fine with me. 30 p. m central bank followed the fed sleep, leaving rates on changed. but century bank is a warning,

it would be premature to declare victory orientation. we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth. that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures, and we're seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't know. we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world are worried about inflation? china has the opposite problem. deflation, prices are fully with domestic demand weekend, bye high due to unemployment, out of property classes. and as the rhetoric from washington about the coupling this economy from between the introduction marjorie fund is wanting a fund mentation into pub block, sent it around the us on china risk wiping trillions of dollars from global output . china is no longer the largest trading partner to the us and its share view as inputs have fallen by on was 10 percentage points in 5 years. from 22 percent in

2018 to 13 percent. and the 1st half of this year the trade restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have affectively cub a chinese impulse of terrorist products. floating demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising, despite concerns about abroad to conflict in the least. and us or production is that a record high, limiting the impact of production costs by opec plus, exposed to is of 2023 has been a year of economic surprises. define productions of global recession was sent to bonds, explore interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections and key economies bring addition uncertainty to 2024 bianca group. the odds here. let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3 guests from

london, we're joined by johnny robinson. charlie is the head of macros strategy. at the f, i am populous, as well as the author of the time traveling economist from miami, florida. we're joined by surely. you should, he is see a practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school, i'm from co home, which went by of mad hell. out of that is practice director of the middle east, north africa region at global council. welcome to your charlie. let's start with you. a world wide recession had been widely predicted by economists in 2023. and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew it's fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened as well, i mean, as, as, as a time of the economy as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades most as the ninety's. and that was just uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw

a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get you to go. there's more because of the lowest ever rates in 40 years in the careers and very few i've had to take on you because even this, right, so i taught the pay stuck with those fixes that really helped. and that's certainly all those types of payments. and that cash support in 20202021. just last longer than that. i think most people expected shirley was less than has been can be drawn for 2024 from. i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic development of 2023. and i like the way you frame. it's just now i the gentleman

mention about fiscal stimulus in the united states, and i think that is the less than that can be trans transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. and poll fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china's infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the thresholds. and so 2024 is likely to be a structure full year for china, not only in public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump the billions of dollars into the strategic technological sectors from somebody, conductors to a i, to e, b, 6 cetera. so you're looking at china, so fiscal stimulus, i think you know, that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will post the market confidence a confidence restored somewhat. that'll help to support the consumer spending and

therefore the economy will pick up from there often. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward of the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla and your top 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy power as well. i will be assigned the benefits for the next round, the commodity cycle in prison, the energy prices, as when the supervisor, the civil, was in power earlier when he passed. if i probably will, the prices increase the going account to raise try out. you find most of ours, the us, you're trying their hardest to, a strong ties within the other category to china. we've always in the views with capital, where the murder of

a c active is in canada and the rest of the top of the responses to, to the incident on what it actually was. why do you see brazil wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use the breaks or the expansion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation? this here case gives you a preferable for us. is it going to continue to fall central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fold in the mock is very much on track. in fact, but i think china and i'm what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. china is real, estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be side prolonged that i think china is going to try and export is right out of its recession. and that means it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel, which is not gonna dump some of the markets. it's become well biggest card exports

in. well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get uh, getting pricing done. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlet for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stack that has made over the last year. yeah, i'm gonna think the boxes, i think what we're having to recognize that the unit is major trade off. and they said we have to talk a energy dependence on on periods and we can no longer trust them on, on saturday calls on that costs as people last you by jim industry, jasmine manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia. it used to have an end with a tire of life or numbers. they will pay an adjustment. and the fact that energy price is a form and so much in the last, just in the last month, which tells us that that actually this girl must be self corrected,

declared the low energy prices back for help german manufacturing start to get back on track through 2024. but uh yeah, europe is looking week as we enter 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to, to stem this trend of folding prices of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted, which is interesting, is actually the lingering on certain t surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course, so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized loans to chinese real estate developers. in order to arrest the real estate market decline, however, in the central government, so you cannot work conference that happened recently. the real estate was not even

nation. so we're still looking at a fairly painful year. has for the chinese real estate markets, they have what, what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the costs. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it. why do you see where to look at the global experience so, so in the recent decade, so it's a real realistically khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at, so from peak to 12th, for that we only see cycle. it took japan, 13 years to reach the bottom of the we obviously cycle and youtube to us about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 out in japan's k. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time. what's the real estate bubble 1st for the markets in the,

particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese re, all the sage prices happens on a more cpa or true. i scale posts in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese. so we will be state bubble 1st in 1990. however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states? it's the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that so the, the real use, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly. and by comparison to japanese, so central bank, so a stands uh, was rather odd. i would say has the chance at the pointing time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to

a large extent also depends on the chinese. so central government, so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying is economic was what affect the rest of us in 2024, it was a bar sink on the, in the world. so if you look at least the try to get some service for oil and gas the flow from, from, from the region. so the 4 countries that depend only on the revenue just now or the recall. so the mental is now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for release and i was depressed investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary cost from production. but the producers, charlie spent a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is, is that happening in practice now? now i sort of, you know, i just,

by all the efforts to try to get the service trying to remains max here from, i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the sides. um, but i just wanted to touch on that last question also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're seeing a savvy in you a he is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure and not infrastructure investment, but also talked about and jobs. the china is, is part of a society trying to diversify its economies of trillion. dollar economy is actually playing is one of the great stories with somebody. and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet for 20 twenties to help out die some because you even it, for prizes. rivelo will come onto low prices in just a minute. but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china's built on road initiative given that the, the only major west of them, but it's only as pulled out more precisely. the g 7 members

are indeed died september to change. however, the builder wrote a conference, so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00. so for incremental vending facilities to the developing countries, i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally change is cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road, the initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in its power, future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful i use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar, wind, hagey, will you be successful?

it has a global dominant position, the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying so supply chain supports and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of the strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed a support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of mulatto. so the street of block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on, on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships we're seeing between china and middle east and states. it was increasing the economical partnership is

what is mainly the relationship of importing an exporting world. but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies and china and investing infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the gospel movie spot brought to the egypt as well. but increasingly they want to incorporate all the things like a, a, i, some of the doctors, altamont, or the renewable energy industry. so there is a grazer bank to gratian on, on carry over a 100 carbons. so you will receive china if you have, i thought it was from a sheet of paper here, this year, and address for kids, and by to, uh, by and yes. so the grades are meeting the to the come to the previous years outside of energy. okay. and that's, that's still further about oil prices have risen and the initial days of the, of, as well as war on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot a why the middle east conflict since then prices of a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy?

well, this is about the markets. funding americans is about increasing supply in rapport smashes like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long quarter to big numbers, increasing the production brazil, piano and you have we can do that. so any demands at the same time from china and your laura, what one of the price prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove of my colleagues here with was, let's say a high interest rates and higher costs are waiting on, on growth, generally for science by the property sector. and the exponent goals are growing our, our wing on uh, oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have a real impact on oil prices. and it's also the market participants have kind of

assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will not be whitening. it will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows, an african color, pick a pick, plus do anything to stem the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their cost, their voluntary cost, the and september salvia and russia. and that's part of the best way to reduce the production by 1000000 barrels per day. of the sellers are off the photo shoots, but it doesn't seem to be working because the, the cups are being offset by this massive increase in this disclose testament to the resilience of the us shared and destroying us. oil and gas production, whatever, and agree with them all, they come back and they're now producing at the us the preeminence or the producer around the 20 leading bows space compared to savvy,

which is on average 11 and 12000000 barrels a day. and these cuts in an attempt to call off the products are actually reducing the market share of salad units for uh over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this will receives for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production now than you know, it took a little while to come through and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not stronger producing and quite slow. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable. and this kind of county office sometimes, but what we'll change is the mom's suppose one as interest rates come down because the oil will break down. depression, central banks, competitive rate cuts. i'm going to mom's side is gonna save a lot of countries. i'm just like packing stuff, kenya that being facing a cheap debt issues. i'm not gonna find like them all for

a lot easier with the process. so i think this is coming into contacting times to, to come in the actually, surely to, to what extent is china is slow down, impacting upon those, those or forwarding, or prices in china is the world's the largest, the energy in puerto so china, so slowing economy obviously will cost the uncertainty and future shops are not only $2.00 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including eye war, etc. and the, if you have noticed the recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china and chinese have been buying a lot of gold art pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i 10 to 15 percent premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have a huge impact to, to the global commodity. so supply chain, but uh, um i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of

meet the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us trying to do competing happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you saw my conductors, us, so somebody conduct a company, so from india to call come in, tell expect you still have a huge market share in china, you and d, d is case out possibly around 25 percent of his global revenue comes from china, so now you have us some, a conductor companies that are looking for a comp triple market. the size of trying those and are, is just simply not up there. meanwhile, chinese companies have the money, but there are just to play things out there. the chinese cannot buy, so you are looking at both the buyers and sellers, and the every, either of, you know, especially operators along the supply chain are going to go going to

a rather painful process for quite a long time. all right, finally, i want to touch on on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on shipping costs. and how concerned is the industry about the, the bob mand up straight, the cost is increasing insurance cost increasing the risk paying for charters, and i'm afraid, industry, the state of hormones actually say to pharmacy even more important than the oil. 12.5 percent of the global seaborne world trade transits. the 3, the formulas above another is a little less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global arteries and the us state of them have been happening since the operator facility between how much of this route but they were happening before and they haven't

really moving. what advice if you believe the oil pressure, the $73.00 a barrel and you, you usually get the largest price? indeed, incidents of the market believes that the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need moving the bottle. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are times where he strikes returning for sikes from israel on ready to start during world requires us to the foremost is lost or disrupted for any, for any reason that we could see some very distinct scenarios where the price of oil, the world bank at this stage of perhaps the $1.00 up to $157.00 balance is a lot of dollars a barrel, which would be a huge little shock and would be a jewel. okay. oil. my shock with brush on your credit, so. okay, that i'm afraid we must edit many thanks indeed to you, old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week. if you like to comments on anything that you've seen,

you can get in touch with us on x, i'm at a set again. the, please try to remember the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost, i'll just 0 don't met is our email address. as always, let's press email. if you online have how does 0 dot com slash ctc? that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost in though. huh. i agree. instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next the just the wrong, rather than the exception for elders to report child abuse, to search. and it keeps it protects the users for years and years. so no one's ever told me that it wasn't my fault. fault lines

investigated, state laws in the us that can lead to child sexual abuse and religious institutions going on punished secrets of the clergy on the jersey hod as a un ambassador position given to you by or does have both. you've described that is better than is better than anything, thought provoking ons. my question to you. all that good cooks, i think is the most difficult question. i've had to answer facing realities, usb tote. in the security council, this is something they just don't think look is different on the x of to hear the story on talk to how does era the

the bottles raging central and southern goes with the casualties. keep going up, the number killed and israel's aggression is approaching 22 south the out on the clock. this is out 0 life and also coming is ready for is this a storming cities across the occupied westbank here and some fits of be targeted as well as the janine refugee cup and number of posts.