asylum seekers to seek asylum in the us. now that bill has been pending and in the senate it has not been taken up. rather there's been a bi partisan effort to negotiate a deal there where you crane funding would be coupled with funding for the border. there's still a lot of uncertainty where that legislation will end up, but what we do know for certain is that we are now in 2020 for a presidential election year. and we just saw those house republicans make this dramatic gesture by visiting the border and they're certainly seizing on that the border and immigration as a point of weakness to a task bite and, and other democrats, regardless of that, the other news of the day is biden's department of justice to the state of texas with his republican governor for were controversial new state law that would make crossing the border illegally. a state crime punishable by up to 20 years in prison . the federal government saying that this law is unconstitutional because

immigration, and border security is in the jurisdiction of the federal government. the head of sedans, power, military rapids, support forces in kenya on the latest leg of his african tool and to securing regional support him at home. then the low met with canyon president william router . the folks focused on the 9 months of fighting between the r assess and sued in these ami katherine, so it has more for nairobi as the leader of the rob paid support forces has been on a tom offensive. he's been to the board. see if you, you've gone to and now kenya. and here she spoke with a president, william, brutal about the need to have a peaceful resolution to the conflict is done. and if you will be, had meetings with the civilian coalition into don and t 3

a to read said that he is open to peace talks about all this comes on the background of this folks that are being negotiated by e. good. the regional block both are assess and the army led by generals bullhorn have said that they are happy to have this book. they want this book, but then with conditions now the army, for example, i say that the that talks should not be pegs by it to amy political negotiation. the talks should instead be military a tool. it will be very interesting to see how this e got talks play out because previous books have not used and much fruits. catherine slowly all the 0, narrow b. that's it. counting, the cost is up next to the

president biden says, once a 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis. what does anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for? i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy. and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? a quizzical look at us politics. the bottom line, the hello, i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i was a 0, a slow down international trade storing debt levels, high inflation of the high interest rates. what lies ahead for the global economy in 2020 a, china is grappling with deflation as prices continue to false. how will slowing

growth of the amount that affect the rest of the world and the economic impact of as well as we're on jobs, that even as low prices have been effected, concerns amounting about shipping costs. a global recession was widely predicted in 2023, but major economies have mostly held fund raising interest rates to control inflation. the u. s. economy expanded by 5.2 percent, and the 3rd cost. that's the quickest pace. in nearly 2 years, food and fuel prices have come down, boss inflation that high interest rates for made a major issue in many parts of the world. we have a panel to discuss the global economic outlook for 2024 and a moment. but 1st, a report from pre owned hook up to the holding interest rates study the u. s. federal reserve signals. it's done with hikes at his last meeting of the year in december. since march 2022, it's reduced rates 11 times to ease inflation. which is not slowing after hitting

a 40 year high in january 2022 at it's fine with me. 30 p of central bank followed the fits lead, leaving rates on changed. but century bank because of warning, it would be premature to declare victory orientation. we are seeing uh, you know, strong growth. that is, that is appears to be moderating. we're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures, and we're seeing inflation making real progress. these are the things we've been wanting to see. we can't, no, we still have a ways to go. why large parts of the world worried about inflation? china has the opposite problem. deflation prices are falling with domestic demand weekend by high due to unemployment on a property crisis. and there's the rhetoric from washington about the coupling this economy from between the international monetary fund is wanting a fragmentation into pub blog sent it around the us on china risk wiping trillions of dollars from global output. china is no longer the largest trading partner to

the us and it share of us imports. the following by on was 10 percentage points in 5 years. from 22 percent in 2018 to 13 percent. and the 1st half of this year the trade restrictions imposed since the onset of the us china trade. tensions in 2018 have affectively cub chinese imports of terrorist products. floating demand from china has prevented oil prices from rising, despite concerns about abroad to conflict in the least and use or production is that a record high? limiting the impact to production costs by opec plus exporters? 2023 has been a year of economic surprises. define productions of, of global recession was sent to advance explore interest rate cuts in the months ahead. geopolitical conflicts and elections and keep calling these bring addition

uncertainty to 2024 brianca group. the odds is here. well, let's break down the main economic trends for 2024. now with all 3 guests from london, we're joined by charlie robinson. charlie is the head of macro strategy at the f. i am populous as well as the all the time traveling economist from miami, florida. we are joined by surely. you shelly is a senior practitioner fellow at so the harvard kennedy school. i'm from co. how would you like to buy off mad? hello. i said is practiced director of the middle east north africa region at global council. welcome to your chelsea. let's start with you. a world wide recession. i had been widely protected by economists in 2023 and as we were hearing a few minutes ago, the u. s. economy grew at its fastest pace and nearly 2 years. what happened as well, i mean, as, as, as a time of the product,

as perhaps i was paying too much attention to the history we hadn't seen rate hikes like this for decades. now since the ninety's and that was just uh, the assumption was that has to break things. i'm gonna, we saw a silicon valley bank grow up in march and people began to think that that was exactly what was happening. but i think we address to make it 2 or 3 things. firstly, be the button fiscal package buttons, fiscal bruce to the economy, helped. secondly, americans were on such a fixed rate. mortgage is we say they were, you won't get you to go. there's more which isn't the lowest ever rates and for 2 years in the careers and very few of have to take on you because even this, right, so i taught the pay stub with those fixes that really helped. and that's certainly all those types of payments. and that cash for in 20202021. just last longer than that. i think most people expected shirley was less than has been can be drawn for 2024 from. i think it's fairly safe to say the surprise economic

development of 2023. i like the way you frame it. it's just now i the gentleman mention about fiscal stimulus in the united states, and i think that is the lesson that can be trans uh, transpired to the chinese economy in 2024 as well. i'm co fiscal policy stimulus has been put in place to advance. so china is infrastructure developments in 2024. and i think it's very likely that the fiscal deficit for $24.00 is going to break the 3 percent of the threshold. and so 2024 is likely to be easy for structure, boom year for china, not only public infrastructure, but also in the affordable housing development projects in china is urban areas. meanwhile, the chinese government will continue to pump billions of dollars into the uh, strategic technological sectors from somebody, conductors. so a i to e b 6 that you so you're looking at china. so fiscal stimulus, i think, you know,

that over time is going to create jobs and jobs will boost the market confidence a confidence restored somewhat that will help to support consumer spending and therefore the economy will pick up from their offer. and what about emerging economies? the brooks nations will countries like brazil and india play a much bigger role in the global economy going forward or the significance and give yourself the g. 20 and presentable. now who's the presidency of the 20 mozilla in your top? 10 over the quantities and it was, it was an emergency energy power as well. i would be attractive benefits. so the next round, the commodity cycle in prison, energy prices. as when the supervisor, the civil, was in power earlier when he passed, if i can quite well, prices increase the current account to raise try out. you find most of ours,

the us, you're trying their hardest to a started ties within the other category to china was always in the us with canada where the murder of a c active is in canada and the west in the top of the responses to, to the incident on why that actually was why do you see brazil wanting to be more of a more responsible environmental storage and wanting to use, the brakes are the expansion, the brakes to forward. again, charlie, what's gonna happen with inflation? this here goes into your preferable for us, is it going to continue to fall central banks going to be able to, to ease rates to my face case is. 2 where it is going to fall within the mock is very much on track and that, but i think china and what you're pretty the speakers we've mentioned it is a part of that story. china is real, estate problems are so cute. and so i like you to be side prolonged that i think china is going to try and export. it's right out of its recession. and that means

it's going to be exporting deflation. so we've already seen it going out and buying an all in a big way to produce steel, which is now getting dumps on the drive with markets. it's become well biggest car exports in. well, that's giving us lower prices for electric vehicles. so i think they're going to be exporting defamations, and that's the one that's going to help get, getting pricing them. all right, well, we'll talk more about china specifically in just a few moments. but what's the outlook for europe where economic growth has been? well, pretty stack that has made over the last year. yeah, i'm gonna think the boxes, i think what we're having to recognize that the european major trade off. and they said we have to talk a energy dependence on, on period 10. we can no longer trust them on, on saturday, cause i'm not cost is being born largely by jim industry, jasmine manufacturing, which doesn't have to cheap energy supply from russia. it used to have an end with

the entire of life, our numbers, they will pay an adjustment. and the fact that energy price is a foreign sign, much and the last just in the last month, which tells us that that actually this girl must be self corrected, declared the low energy prices back for help german manufacturing start to get back on track through 2024, but uh yeah, europe is looking week as we enter 2024. surely you had johnny best saying that the china is going to expose deflation. what can i do to, to stem this trend of folding prices of what china has spent next sporting deflation to particularly the western market and the rest of the world pretty much for the past 4 decades. so there's nothing new there. but one thing that was highlighted, which is interesting, is actually the lingering on certain t surrounding china. so real estate markets and of course, so the banks have been trying to offer even not on some occasions on collateralized

loans to chinese real estate developers. you order to a rest, the real estate market decline, however, in the central government. so you cannot work conference that happened recently. the real estate was not even nation. so we're still looking at a fairly painful year. i had for the chinese real estate market today. and what, what, what, what specifically is going wrong with china is real estate market. we've been talking about this for quite some time now on, on counting the costs. and the government doesn't seem to be able to do anything to, to, to revive it as well. you see where to look at the globe experience so. so in the recent decade saw it real realistically. khalidi happened to bolt in japan in the 19 ninety's and also in the united states in the early twenties of 21st century. so you're looking at, so from peak to 12th for that we only cycle, it took time, 13 years to reach the bottom of the re, obviously cycle. and he took the us about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 out in japan's

k. so from 1990 all the way to 2003. so it does take a long time. what's the real estate bubble 1st for the markets and the particularly the market confidence to recover. so in the chinese, the instance, if you were to look at the real estate market trends, the chinese roll, the sage prices happens on a more cd or uh, i scale both in terms of scale and the size in comparison to the japanese real estate bubble. first in 1990, however, what made the difference between the japanese situation versus the united states is the government response because in 2007, the us government's resorted to the so what to can do added shoot or including 4 rounds of quantitative easing. so that, so the, the real use, the recession, we're able to recover fairly quickly. and by comparison to japanese,

so central bank, so a sense of what's rather on, i would say hesitant at the point in time. so really, how long it's gonna take for the chinese real estate market to recover or to a large extent also depends on the chinese, the central government. so money tree and the fiscal policy support often what's, what's your view on how trying his economic was? what affect the rest of us in 2024? it was a lot of stick on the, in the world. so if you look at least the drivers on service for oil and gas the flow from, from, from the region. so about 4 countries that they've done over run lead on the use of our company. so the metals now we supply after being denied is a clear negative for them at least, and double the price investment domestically as a lead to greater voluntary cost from over production. but producers, charlie spent a lot of talk in the us about the coupling. the economy from china is, is,

is that happening in practice now? now i, i already know that despite all the efforts. 2 to try to get the service trying to remains max here from i think it's going to be an increasing issue folks if you're a problem with the states. but i just wanted to touch on that last question also about the gulf. and what's interesting about what we're seeing as a savvy, and you really is like india. we're saying this big boost into infrastructure. and the infrastructure investment been also talked about and child china is, is part of a society trying to diversify to economies of trillion dollar economy. it's actually playing is one of the great stories of somebody and they can afford to leverage off the balance sheet 3 to 20 twenties to help out die. so because you, even if oil prices rivelo will come onto oil prices and just some of that. but 1st i, i wanna finish with, with china. surely. what's the future for china is built on road initiative,

given that the, the only major west of them. but it's only as pulled out more precisely the g 7 members indeed died. so pivotal change, however, the builder wrote a conference, so that happened recently announced an additional $120.00 of the ink for mental vending facilities to the developing countries. i think the bowden road initiative will continue, but it will fundamentally change is cocked to rights ation going forward. one, the bottom road, the initiative will become more nimble and more selective in terms of projects. i think renewable energy developments in the developing world, particularly naisha and africa in the middle east will continue to play a dominant role. busy in itself, how future policy framework. so china has initiated the so the small and beautiful

i use essentially nimble slowly energy development projects in africa. and if you were to look at china's access, so capacity is solar wind, how much will you be successful? it has a global dominant position, the china on roughly about 70 percent of the global solar supply chain over 50 percent of the global wind supply chain and so on. the global renewable energy transition will not be able. busy to be achieved without trying so supply chain support and to i think china will continue to focus on a lot of flow strategic projects that are, that are essential choice, national security. so it's, for example, china recently expressed a support for a new land bridge project in thailand that are essentially created a past way as an alternative to oil shipping route across the street of milwaukee. so the street and block has traditionally be considered a strategic bonner ability for china, but also what, what's your view on,

on the growing relationship to the strategic partnerships we're saying between china and middle eastern states was increasing. the partnership is what is mainly the relationship of importing an exporting model, but they want to move up the technology rather change the spider economies in china and investing infrastructure and part of developing those initiatives. and in the golf. some of these bulk brought to the egypt as well, but increasingly they want to cooperate all the things like a, a, i, some of the doctors, altamont, the energy industry. so there is a greater of integration on, on various other hydrocarbons. so you will receive china if you have, i thought it was from a sheet of paper here this year and address for kate a bunch of the find us. so this equation meeting be to the come to the previous years outside of energy. okay. and that's, that's still further about the oil prices have risen and the initial days of the,

of, as well as war on, on garza out of fee is that it could spot a why the middle east conflict since then prices of a full. and so what does that mean for the global economy as well, is it is about the markets, funding actions is about increasing supply and rewards masses like from the united states and the share patches and permian basin from long part of the members increasing their production for so, you know, and you have, we can do that. and so lady demands at the same time from china and your laura, what one of the price prices are, are good for manufacturing sector for energy intensive sectors in europe. but there are other drugs on, on global ground grove. the area was, was, let's say high interest rates and higher costs are waiting on on growth. generally, of course transferred property sector and the exponent phenomena goals are going

are, are waiting on uh, oil demand. so that's why we haven't seen the guys or have a real impact on oil prices, and there's also the market participants have kind of assume that it's going to try to continue to be localized. compet competition will not be whitening. it will not be affecting the global trade slow, single energy flows from an african colored pick a pick plus do anything to stem the full and the price of oil, or at least the stagnation of it. it doesn't seem to be working. i mean they, they keep increasing their cost, their voluntary cost, the, and september salvia and russia. that's part of the big bus, reduce their production by 1000000 barrels per day of the sellers are off the photo shoots, but it doesn't seem to be working because the, the cups are being offset by this massive increase in this disclose the testament to the resilience of the us chairman destroying us,

oil and gas production and the whatever degree wichita, they come back and they're now producing at the us the preeminence or the producer around the 20000000 barrels day compared to savvy, which is on average 11 or 12000000 barrels a day. and these cuts in an attempt to call off the products are actually reducing the market share of us out of this for uh, over the years. so it's, it's not looking, but in terms of what the price is as this overseas for the golf oil producers out of market share. charlie is high us oil production. now that, you know, it took a lot of come through and i think the show guys were particularly cautious off because it's not to do. i have to produce an credit to some. but yeah, it looks, it looks like this is sustainable and it's going to county office sometime from what will changes the mom's survivors want as interest rates come down, because low oil will break down inflation central banks,

competitive rate cuts out on the demand side is gonna save a lot of countries. i'm just like packing stop. kenya that has been faced mature debt issues. i'm not going to find like them all for a lot easier with the process. so i think it's just coming into fund tastic tons to, to kind of be actually surely to, to what extent is china is slow down, impacting upon those, those or folding or prices in china is the world's the largest, the energy in puerto. so china is a slowing economy, obviously it will cost the uncertainty and future shops are not only $2.00 global oil prices, but also to the other commodities, including eye war, etc. and the, if you have noticed the recently, because of the lack of consumer confidence in china and chinese have been buying a lot of golds arch pushing the chinese domestic gold prices. i tend to 15 percent

premium to the global market price. so obviously china is going to have a huge impact to, to the global commodities. so supply chain, but so i, i so previously mentioned it would be unrealistic to think about fully kind of meet the coupling between the united states in china. however, that's not to say that it's not going to be a painful process as the, you know, the us trying to do competing happen. so primarily in the technology supply chain and including increasing the investment sectors. so say for example, you somebody, conductors, us so, so i'm a conduct a company. so from and bd to call company intel accept, you still have a huge market share in china, you and b is case out possibly around 25 percent of his global revenue comes from china. so now you have us some, a conduct, a companies that are looking for a comp triple market. the size of trying those and are, is just simply not out there. i mean, while the chinese companies have the money,

but there are just some play things out there. the chinese cannot buy. so you are looking at both the buyers and sellers, and the f. b. either of, you know, especially operators along the supply chain are going to going to a rather painful process for quite a long time. all right, finally, i want to touch on, on shipping cost of it. what's the impact of, of the, who's the attacks on ships passing through the red sea that we've seen on uh, shipping costs and how concerned is the industry about date that the fab l mind up straight the cost is increasing insurance cost increasing the risk, paying for charters and i'm afraid industry, the state of form was actually straightforward. was even more important than the oil 12.5 percent of the global seaborne world trade transits. the 3, the foremost above another is a little less about 10 percent the global world trade. so the key global

outreach and the us state of them have been happening since the bigger facility between mazda of this route, but they were happening before, and they haven't really moving. what advice if you believe the oil pressure, the $73.00 a barrel? and you, you usually get the largest price. indeed, incidence of demarcus believes that the called the comfortable gourmet cooking will not be whitening. and these incidents will not really need more than that. of course, if there is escalation, there is, there are times where he strikes returning for sikes from israel on arranging for structuring over 5 years. obviously the foremost is locked or disrupted for any for any reason that we could see some very distinct scenarios when the price of oil, the world bank, at this stage of perhaps the one up to 150 $7.00 balance with a lot of dollars, a barrel, which would be a huge little shock and would be a deal. okay. oil, my shock with brush on your credit. so. okay. that i'm afraid we must edit many

thanks. indeed to you old charlie robinson show you and off mad hold of that is our show for this week. if you like to comments on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us on x. i'm at a set again. the, please try to remember the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the costs out to 0 dot net is our e mail address. as always, this table, if you online it out to 0 dot com slash ctc, that takes you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links out into episodes for you to catch up on that. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost in doha. i agree, instead of going for the whole team here, thanks for being with us. but he is on al jazeera is next, the, a unique perspective. i'm willing to change the streets because of the sense of urgency that

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a live from don't have also coming up. the leader of has bought on ones is real. the cost of anyone and loving on will be very high off of the killing of