the, the, the yvonne's questions retaliation off to, to bloss kim morgan 18 people during commemorations for an assassination. generally the said to be the worst attack since the 1979 revolution. so how will pet envoy yet and is their best of escalation in the region. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on them. it is one of the worst attacks to hit yvonne and decades. more than 80 people were killed in the southeastern city of cut them on. on wednesday, when 2 explosives went off, joined a crowd of procession. the timing of the attack is significant. it happened during the so many mocking full years since the u. s. assassinated one of yvonne's top generals costs. and so the money the attack is adding yes, another layer of tension in the region. this israel's one gaza, this week's assassination of i'm off come on to 11 on and now this attack in iran. so is there a connection and will the suspicions of different governments and on goods escalate? the violence? we'll get to those questions in a moment. but 1st, this report from katia lopez hold a young of the 2 bombs exploded during the crowded procession marketing for year since the us assess the nation overruns top military commander costs. and so the money to up until his stuff was among the most powerful

men in advance. sulu money led around the revolutionary guards could force which handles overseas operations, including providing weapons, money, and logistical support to own groups in the region, including husband law and tomas. it ran immediately, blink israel, for the attack i've won, design is raising without the doubt you will pay the price to this crime. these crimes you've committed, you will deeply regret the us state department denies the accusations and points to a lack of evidence. the united states was not involved in any way. and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous. and number 2, we have no reason to believe that israel was involved in this explosion in, in recent years on groups including i still have carried out

a tax against civilians and security forces in around in 201712 people were killed when i sold targeted a ranch, parliament building, and the 2 other republics, a revolutionary founder that the attack comes at a time of high tensions in the region. israel has not lit up and it's war on garza and 11 on capital. the 2nd most powerful commander of how mosque was assassinated on tuesday, and then the parents is rarely strikes. what it is, what does it have to do? this estimation of one of the master's top leaders in lebanon is you have to know the fact that could indeed escalate the conflicting cause that's got it. and now this latest attack and a ran risk escalating an already fragile situation in the region that's been on edge for months, caught see a little bit of again, oh, to 0 for insight stores the

spring and i guess and paid on is house on ok. madame professor of middle east studies at the university of pet on and then in ali for the national and founder and director of the center for middle east and globe order. and in bethlehem, i'm on shy with alton, a research fellow of the middle east forum with a special expertise on i so valuable and welcome to all of you, mr. via and from what we know about this attack so far. who operates in this 9 o. 2 bombings in quick succession targeting civilians. and now there hasn't been any office of talk on this or an official announcement. obviously there is investigation ongoing to figure out who and how it was pulled off. and but, but so far we don't have any official announcement on the issue. but of course,

yvonne's original policy and poster has put it in recent decades at loggerheads with the 2 prime suspects in the eyes of the way the ends of those are isis. and it says to organizations and these right, these under back, cuz these are the 2 prime suspects, especially when it went in analysis coming out in different outlets. and i think because these are the 2 parties, but have, it seems inherent interest at this point to hit yvonne with and its internal security. they are being uh, you know, uh, taken as the most probable, uh, you know, a parties that have all this off. okay. miss the 1st one is uh, we are hearing from yvonne in lead. is they not saying exactly who they think it is, but they have said things like the head of the revolution regards. could fools has

said that they blamed design us treasury mendez, ally the united states that they're looking to was israel and the united states. but if we look at again at how this attack has been carried out, it doesn't carry the whole marks of past previous attacks. by as well, does it that's correct actually because, i mean, i think 1st of all, we should be extremely cautious about the kind of official narrative that we're hearing from do something with public and also state media. and it runs were a blaming the usual suspects. um, you know, ease rather than most of the united states by the way. but if you look at the past is rarely a, you know, attacks in iran. and they were very clearly targeting um the receipt and its infrastructure fee to military or nuclear. and uh plus um there is

also um, you know, the realization of these relative there was a wide gulf between space that's assigned to new rocks. and i think there is no advertising to execute instructional protection against civilians in iraq that may lead so to your, on your society turning against israel. so i think, you know, the probability that these rug was behind this attack is quite low. yeah. and mister, ultimately, i know that you also think that the probability of israel carrying out this attack is low again, when you look at where the bottoms will place from what we know so far about where the bonds were placed. not near the ceremony itself, that was we believe attended by senior regime officials. but you know, where ordinary people who do support the regime, but or do we pay for what, what can, can we some minds from this that the target, you know, wasn't senior ronnie and regime officials b, as i clearly speculate on precise targets,

but in general from the if you take it from the united states, the standpoint, then any e, uranium civilian, civilian doesn't matter what was the governmental nor any regions very, who is a c i o. c k is the incident. what they call a rock dice and an app is saved from his mom in the full would you be talking to to do anything in the groups i as in this match is with cause the types they carried out to you wrong. um, for instance, uh in the last one they claimed that steve was in october of 2022 and that was targeting in senior officials. those already are the ready and government on times in the way it was just a and it's inflicting mass casualties among ordinary people or just some people being c on this is in the city of c arise. and one thing i actually would add is that, um we con,

well be waiting for some kind of statement to the is the assignment today. just give that to say anything about this. yeah, it is. you all the next set on i. so i, i'm sorry to interrupt that, given you are an expert on iso, doesn't the group usually take responsibility pretty quickly when it does carry on to tax? well, this is what i was going to say about this. now i see that they don't always claim every time they do around the well. and that could be for a variety of reasons, because i actually want to point out that that was me to type in your eyes as well in august of last year. and the radio is the rest of the offer to have been sentenced into uh, i think center this is desiree cold and identifying them as a member of the islamic stage. it was originally from time to get started. but these obviously i just never claimed as a tag. i mean, it could be the designing stage. did the decide and then doesn't claim it because

it was to say, leave doubt and have the wrong point being is there are other ideas and contributing to this uh why to said the instability. i also basically explored, or most of the tensions, especially incredibly high in the region and iran has vowed to retaliate, but they'll have to, it's incredibly important at this stage to find who's responsible, isn't it just how difficult is it to find to get to the bottom of such an attack it's very hard and i, i think they are now in they are trying their best to find to find who did it, and then to then get to basically who supported it from abroad. i mean, depending on the uh who is has supported of this farm. and i think yvonne's response will this if it's isis,

i think yvonne will go after it's leadership in different places in the region of honest on iraq, syria. and this here in the rocky border. uh that's i think it has been the case previously and will be the case moving forward. but if it's israel and i hear different bits, i don't completely roll out these really possibility here because 11 on and the 8 is one of the many speaks about this in his book. these really is a supported part, isn't that committed such crimes within 11 on so you couldn't really rule it out. so i agree. it's a no possibility because the attack seems to be very much administered into what isis usually has been doing and recent years. but you can throw this out as well, but these are the possibilities. so if it's a israel, i think that's another issue. they writing a response should be calibrated in

a way to deter not only israel, but it's back or the main, a fish, anyone's strategic. and you know, conduct in the region that has the united states to deter both and, and that's, i think, is a very complicated and a very sophisticated thing to pull off because what's at stake is not totally yvonne's internal stability in that case. and just the ones deterrence and return. so simple terms is basically uh, you know, backend what it is, a conditional threats by a power projection. yvonne doesn't respond that projection and that conditional threat collapse on outgo. yvonne's determinants will collapse. ok, i think the way it is we'll, we'll find it hard not to respond in one way or another to these here. absolutely missed the phone and measure as you touch the on. you know, some of the problems between the iranian state and society sizes from, i mean,

there are various groups and yvonne itself is the fight is from below just on there are the, you know, ethnic arab separate shows. they have staged attacks in iran, in the pos would they have an interest due to can carrying out such an attack again, based on past experience, not totally over the last few years, but over the last 4 decades. i think we have to be extremely cautious about um, you know, about naming all those possible attempted traitors. i mean, it could well be that the groups that have been mentioned so far. i've been the try to of this attack with also given past experience could well be that is it, it isn't kind of inside job because there is a long history of structure inside jobs from the very start of the stomach resolution to a, just a few years ago remember the r g c a shooting down in the ukrainian passenger

jet and saying that's actually it was not to the r g c. so there was a long history and i think it didn't. all of that. the context is much more important to you. the 1st one initial, when you say an inside job, can you explain exactly what you mean to for sure. so i think, i mean, i, you know, i mean, you should talk about this possibility. um, you know, the, the context is important to context is that these non republic, despite the appearance of being very strong and various paper from the outside has lots of problems both at home, but also in terms of foreign policy. and you know, most importantly, iran is going to have double elections in march of for the parliament, but also the assembly of experts was going to select the next to bring leaders. so there is a lot of complications about those too. but also there was a resume realization about the lack of social mobilization and photo turn out. and

the reputation of historically, both the, you know, low bush will turn out this time around as well. so this, uh, you know, this attack, whoever might be the focus, right? to really, whatever might be the fact to try to, i think may be used by the iranian states, just the secure, it ties the domestic jarine up. oh, so, and you of the domestic fluids that i just explained against the backdrop of and still existing, very profound economic price. yeah. so you're saying you're saying that the iranian government might have something to gain, it sounds like from this attack. so when you say inside job, are you implying that elements within the regime itself could have carried out such an attack? yeah, because i mean is i, you know, and then you know, you have to look at that. you're very soberly, you have to look at at the, you know, you have to consider past experience, but those of times we have never known for sure. it would have been the perfect trace. has there been multiple, a circle, tired of subjects in around,

over the last few years, many of which, you know, have been blamed on divers, many of which have been blamed on all of the other usual suspects, but also some of which turned out to be you know, have the hands of the or one state as well. so i think i well yeah, well the other guess the because i can see that both of them have something to say about that, mr. ok, maybe i will come to you in just a moment, but if i can get to mr. alton, meaning i know that you have said it's as unlikely that the wrong carried out this attack as israel. so what's your response to what you're hearing that i, yes, i do buying the idea that it was in the radian inside, don't they mean just the timing of beds and the number of people were killed and so it discriminant. and uh and uh, in regards actually to retired, the guys referenced the shooting down and like, i don't really know, evenings intentionally did that, they did that. and then they signed to colorado. like for me to present something

to, you know? yeah, yeah. you don't think it was okay. um, so again, i, again, i don't think you can say that the position yet the is bombing state did. and so i, the receiving comes our investigation happens. although it just seems that it has a whole lot software, but it seems much more like that and then bring it inside job. so we understand that more. okay, mr. if i told him this out, if i can come back, come back to you and look at the symbolism behind the attack itself. you know, what is the message behind attacking the tomb of a man? who was a chief architect of the ronnie and policy across the region. you know, he was, he was the commander of the revolution regards overseas codes force, or the seeing fighters in iraq and syria and 11 on and yeah, and then i mean to, to clarify my previous points. i'm not definitely suggesting that there was an

inside job, but i'm just as you know, basing my argument on past experience, which i have of showing me very mixed picture about the wide range of possibilities behind the term, subtracts in the wrong and currently the situation there is a much, much more dire. i explained briefly the domestic situation, but also regionally the, the stronger republic has been uh, interesting, severe blows with the killing of the top r g c come entering syrian but also the killing of ability in the roots. so i think it's at least a welcome. uh, you know, a digression uh from jersey. um that a subject of talk has now happens when it comes to studying money. i think there's a lot of myths about, you know, the status that it's, that he holds within your honor society. there is certainly a, that there's been a period in which many iranians believe that he's who was a national euro. but i think this kind of

a big church is much more contested over the last few years in iran. also given a extreme uh, you know, wide gulf that is now involved between the bulk of the wrong in society and the regime of the other. or i so as to whether yeah, and i know that you wanted to come in earlier when we were talking about you know, mr. thorn initial has said that while he's not implying that yvonne elements within the volume regime itself could have carried out this attack. and certainly it might have something to gain from that. it might be a welcome distraction, given the immense pressure is it's on the internally and of, of, from international groups as well a while, i definitely with that for you, because i think i have on, at this point more than have a needs its deterrence. visa v is relevant, united states, given this condition in the region, and i can't do what mr told on the job is describing to say, well,

securitized internal because the radians, i mean there's not a public's main legacy, is that it kept iran. it's table in a region into a mall. now, a security bridge, the bridge on, on this scale, is a blow to that narrative. how can that be the case? i think that's a one. i mean, based on co, public has a lot to do more than it can gain from such an incident. so i think that's uh, i mean, if they went in a position usually talks about a such incidents being internal jobs. well, the, the only incident is the uh, the app saying that they were late to clear list declared responsibility. and that was an incident. now this can to be an incident. it's a bomb implanted, you know, in the crowd that were commemorating the bullets force assassinated. very,

you know, celebrated hero and a right nation of people were, were going there to, to take part in that. and these people are the social base host is not a good public. there's not a good public. uh, i mean the for the sake of the argument of it based on the public, even if it does so, which i didn't see any evidence in that it wouldn't hit its own base. all right. what about other groups, mr. alton? they went sorry i missed a for thorn and i shall i can see you wanting to come in here or. yeah, i think, i mean, 1st of all, to clarify the record about the r g c. shooting down to the ukranian fighter judge according to canadian court rulings, you know, this was probably in that tensional attack. so there is, in fact, a long history. i mean, instead of my rec site mention to the very beginning of the revolution and also you know, later on. so this is not so you know, as some fantasy here. um, so uh, just to, uh and, and in terms of determines yes, uh,

the terms is important. but also what is part of the iranian natural security doctrine somehow. uh, also the sun republics security doctrine is the need for crises. you know, it crises can also be a very useful and can be instrumental lies by the states for regional stability purposes. so do this contracts also maybe, right. okay. mr. alton, maybe let me bring you in here. there's some disagreements because the attack was on some sort of monies around has to let me bring you in here because there's a difference of views on his, on his legacy. mr. federal emission out saying that, you know, he's, he's not the, he wrote that he was painted to be, what do you make of that? and the groups again, the groups that would be interested in carrying out in the tack on the 4th anniversary of his assassination. yes, we got into

a positive and so they might need legacy a be, it really depends who you are in the region. so i mean the, the people's a direct passage laws close the wrong these, the image is 0 who is important in the fight against the is bonding stage and also fairly rainy and elements. and, and celia as well uh, being very high in a very proud to resolve isabel. that's huge encounters with an operations. the other end of the syrian does is all in alaska for example, but then there are others you'll see in uh from most of jerry, i was the persecutor of sidney. isn't responsible for nice giving of sydney's whether it's senior year or whether in iraq and or i know so in a symbol runs governance. and so there are the other groups that say for

example, play on narratives to balancer. so the persecution you near on like age, alonzo, and also, uh it isn't moving based in syria or of uranian assuming tags on houses when they come to syrian join use agency, then put out a statement about this use of the sent me using the wrong. so they could also have an interest in doing some kind of like inside that inside the, the don't down and cost them so they might okay, but don't understand just brand new scale. i don't think. all right, we don't have very long left in the program. so i'd like to ask each of you a final questions to ask for the and do you think, how much has this attack increase the chance of a wider escalation of violence in the region? would you say, i think it comes in the time of the original escalation already, and that's what the point is, the finger israel, and it's possible by kind of such an incident. so as i said,

it's your methods are miss durham innocent of what process used to do. but the possibility of being that if it being backed or another group being backed by israel, is still there. and that will open the door wide to original escalation. and because if yvonne doesn't respond, it's quite ability and it's a deterrence, will it be at stake? yeah, and if it does, if it responds and i think, well, if it comes to a conclusion that is rarely is behind it, then we'll see a more escalation in the region. i think this will be a regional, a response, and these are, these will try to attract the united states and picture day goes to ron or possibly other countries to try to put, put more pressure on your list of for the to do things that as well. as trying to drive the united states into a wide, a regional conflict with iran, it is what it is trying to get seems to be united states into i think,

i mean on your 1st question. despite the fact that chevron claims that there was a link between the 2, the come on explosions and the world as a that it is basically an act of desperation. charge on carried out by using the united states because of the complications of the work. i think that those are 2 distinct reading us here. you're on uh is uh, not suicidal. it's not assigned to regime and also to kind of find revenge that iran had promised after the us drawing killing of selling money. never materialized . so the same caution can be observed within the world garza so neither you're wrong or what are interested in a great wordpress user. and for the united states, i jeopardize reaching something and very quickly mr. alton, they, me, how do you see this incident playing out over the next days and weeks? it really depends on who it really depends on whom the already installed

responsible. they old is honest, a responsible and sometimes they explains it or whatever. then i think then that doesn't change the wind to read it. don't take their attention escalation of the gods of war, but it's a separate dynamic. but then if they blame is ramelle, i expect some kind of movie calibrated response of unnecessary a attempt to do on out to wall with these really provoke a white a reasonable, which will be why we're all looking at that around an investigation into what happens. so closely or ice that is a half an hour with an impact on at least i thought i measured in berlin and i'm and job. i'd also mimi in bethlehem. thank you very much and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out a 0 dot com. and for further discussion, do go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x a handle as at

a inside story from me, elizabeth put on them and the entire team here. bye for now the we will never get to see that doesn't happen. our country is out enough. we will not take it at a bar 3 years after protest, a storm to the capital. the new race for the white house begins in iowa as republican candidates, once again bethel trump, for the nomination, stay with alpha 0. so the us selection 2024, exploring type this culture exciting, political disco exposing societies, doctor award winning intense investigations. the get compelling insights into humanity. open until the stories from asia are in the

pacific. 101 east. on i'll just see around the,

the the hello, i money inside and coming up in the next 60 minutes, forced to flee even boned as rel, attacks 1000 areas in the gaza strip. kidding, move in for 2 people as well as defense minister lays out his proposal. for the future of casa iran, mullins, its dead funeral, something helps 85 people killed in the time on wednesday i saw has claimed was closed and, and is there any rate.