in power, i think they felt they had a strong lead. 1000000000 to the last month of this election campaign. the polls before the close 10 days before the election suggested the can see what's coming from behind and in this election, right. we've for the 1st time go to a viable fit policy, the time on people's policy, the very charismatic leader form a time payment. they were attracting a lot of attention from the youth, those. and that could be a significant disruptive as the votes accounted in the house to come across the taiwan strait. katrina, you has more on bad things. reaction to the vice it's easiest election as non legitimate, insist that taiwan is chinese territory. that regardless of today's vote, will be re unified with the main line of what facing wants from this election is that the new lead us to accept the one china principle. what it refers to was in 1992 consensus according to china. that's the only way to achieve peace and

stability in the taiwan straits. now, the ruling d p t and current president site was outright have rejected this one china principal. and since her election in 2016 china has official communications with the tie when his government was seen cross retention. so now the current candidate lighting for she is likely to continue with tying when's approach which is to behave like ty, one is an independent country without 6 leg. a being that it is and that infuriates chinese need is as a result they have brands of the d, p. p, branded lighting to as dangerous separatist pro independence forces. and they say that their election will only be taiwan and china, closer to texas, has blocked federal border agents from processing my grants. as a dispute deepens between the us, stays on the 5 and have been straighten this week, stays special for something new. barriers along part of the border with mexico and his government has been in a stand off with texas governor of greg tablets because of record levels of

migration is also supreme court to stop techs us from blocking patrols by border agents. there's regulations of grounded boeing 737, max 9 airplanes indefinitely. it follows an instant last week when a cap and panel blew out mid flight from a debt of praise applied that's gonna add lines. authorities of the said, the planes could fly again off to inspections. for a landslide in north west columbia has kills at least 18 people. it happened in a town near a town in the chaco region. well, so as you say, many people were buried when they left the car to take shelter in the house during heavy waiting for dozens of people. what engines those the news for this hour as always old website, was there a dot com as the basis on top stories do say change counting the costs as all the

we will never get to see that doesn't happen. our country is out enough. we will not take it any more 3 years after protest, a storm to the capital. the new rates for the white house begins in iowa as republican candidates, once again bethel trump, for the nomination, stay with alpha 0. so the us selection 2020 for the hello i. my name's sorry. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business economics. this week 2024 will be the get of elections around 2000000000 versus will be heading to the polls to pick the governments this year. what will this mean for many struggling with the cost of

living crisis, inflation and high interest rates? the housing millions lot more can central banks do on will we see the end to high rates, or is this the new normal plus disruptions and the red st caused by iran back to the rebels has seen the price of sending goods around the world spike waves out as a threat to the global economy. the 2024 is probably going to be a big if elections around hall for, for wells population will be heading to the polls. no continent is exempts from lots expect it to be a yeah. that could shape the future well order. so what does this year have in store for the global economy under the umbrella so much potential political change will also be looking at the impact of the rising cost of shipping because of tensions in the red sea. bob, brian, golf, uh, begins uh, coverage,

and that is of course, at least $64.00 countries will be choosing the latest and governments in 2024 more than $2000000000.00 people are eligible to vote in what's being billed as a biggest yet and global election history. spends a dash or 10 prime minister shake has enough for a 5th time this month in the fest of the estimates of the ation nations holding elections into the pakistan on indonesia street lanka and india. one of the most famously contested will be in taiwan. the outcome is likely to have implications for best the u. s. and china as they compete, for instance, in the region us, i tie one considers itself independent, but beijing says through all of this part of its territory to be taken by force if necessary. elections for members of the european parliament to take place in june

with far right parties, gaining popularity. more than 400000000 virtues are eligible to elect 720 m e p's across 27 countries. since the current 19 pandemic and the war and ukraine, the european union has struggled to bring rising food and energy prices under control and to boost sluggish economic growth. inflation in the blocks largest economy, germany rise at the fastest rate in the last 3 months of 2023 dampening expectations that the european central bank will cut the interest rate soon. the case will be fast towards the end of this year. 2024 because uh the seed be asked to no, not on the, on the line. your patience all tied has line information. one knows where that will stand in 6 or 9 months, because you don't know where all your prices will be going. and that's i would be

very cautious to pay take. yeah. right, that's in the well, it's not just economy us. president joe biden is hoping to secure a 2nd time in elections in november. his republican wife was donald trump, is also coming to attend to the white house event such as the outcomes of was in gauze. and when ukraine, along with possible political transitions, will determine economic trends. and many tax pass may be hoping for a few political sweetness before deciding the next government barbara and good for counting the cost. what we're doing now by john harrison these managing direct at global data ts, lombardo alongside them, is brands and a cool, nice professor of us politics and foreign relations at the university of sydney. welcome to the sharp i've here john. let's start with a brown, broad outlook for the yeah, according to the well defined, it's high borrowing costs and political uncertainty around the world that is likely to dominate. do you agree?

um, yes, i mean, these are certainly important factors. and markets of growth, financial markets have been very follow tile at the start of a year, but that doesn't really detract from our overall micro outlook, which is one of moderately slow, a g d p growth crackle. this inflation, which equals to be put for consumers and ultimately lower interest rates. and so, so that side of things should, to should improve. and there are risk to cost. inflation could have a resurgence in shipping costs. for example, our in focus at the moment. oil prices, it could also be much as a threat about but overall we think that with us, the interest rates, sorry us inflation, quite close to 3 percent. but it's a fact we'll be more biased towards costing rates, rather than allowing the economy to slip into recession in europe, perhaps if the possibility of right cups could be delayed. they're all vocation

members at the c b that could push back. if they said it was a slight uptake in inflation and in china we see downside risks to, to growth. that because of the unpredictable nature of a policy making and also the to property sector crisis and thought to it. but overall, it's a picture, a slightly got slip, slice level, gross less inflation and ultimately lower interest rates. don't. what about towards the end of the yeah. do you see a slightly better picture by then? yes, i mean the economies you month to month fees, lower interest traits if they do stop in q 2, as we expect then bias on which she end of the day and you know the column, it should be picking up a mock. it should be doing much better as a result of that. but of course, you know, we do have c elections particularly in the, in the us. and so there is a risk of g, a political tension, but from a purely economic perspective, the feed grew from of,

of lower interest rates. and lower prices should be, should be good for can see much and good for academic growth. that's a good point to tend to brandon as we've been discussing, as jonas been saying a big year elections this year. let's start with the west. uh which ones are you watching closely? well, the us selection is where i have my expertise, and i suppose many people follow a not just as a political sciences or academics, but it almost is kind of sports. when donald trump is involved, it's become popular culture that the us has become in some ways it's seen as a bit of a politic circus. hey, i the last decade and particularly since the rise of donald trump, psych many people economically i suppose, politically socially. ready be asking, ken trump the re elected as you as president. that would have seemed unlikely i think when it got to fated in 2020. but the possibility is real, somebody's doing quite well in national polls. it's always crucial where you can

win the kate states in the united states, and he's, he's a bit behind bob and then some of those keys states, but improving over time and showing that he is a serious threat to dr. barton to invite and has a weakness on some economic indicators. inflation has been pretty high during his presidency, getting up to 9 percent in 2022. so, pardon is vulnerable some late, there's probably likely to be an election in the united kingdom lights. this year that seems on the cod side to major. so the bank landscape powers with elections that i think move all to ireland, the united states that most people would say very likely live with victory in the united kingdom with the us selection. i think for electronics, but the mind but would largely see it as a toss up. and the possibility of trouble or training which is extraordinary is, is very much likely. it will. we will talk a bit further about the us elections. but i do want to ask you about the elections

and the emerging markets is, is it any particular country that is standing out for you, perhaps tie one? yeah, that's why one election is, is crucial. i mean, it did look for a time that would be 3 candidates. now it's the kind of seemingly the whole battle between 2 magic bodies. and so i think there would be a sense of bided break. um, if there was more talk of independence, which seems less likely in the selection of the form for much position seems to be the more dominant and popular position side that election ways crucial in taiwan and how china reacts to the chinese elections as is always a crucial, so jared political hop point to keep, keep affected. so what about you, john? from the emerging markets? wanna invest as paying attention to? yeah, i mean in terms of collections, i'm assuming, timeline, like i can make a few comments on that to mean, you know, we do expect for you um ruling a company p p. p test to get in the presidency but may lose control of

a parliament. so that may mean that posting legislation is perhaps quite difficult, and this will not be something that will be approved of by it's by china and in terms of the d. p. candidate. but it's likely to be an increase in the intentions. but this will be perhaps more of the same of what we've seen so far in incursions in taiwan, say a space and perhaps some, some trade terrace and so on. but that will also be carrots, if you'd like to go along with that in, in terms of perhaps we'd like sation of co rules on, on travel and i'm watching and so on. and but as role someone such and see and, and that full and some risk of tensions and some risk of follow tennessee and financial markets as a result. i mean, of course there are many other elections to keep an eye on the most important ones . perhaps india also mexico and to that so we can discuss it. turning back

to the us economy brendan, so we have seen some improvement in the us economy in recent months. how much is that gonna play into how voters decide on who they're going to vote for? i mean, you would have thought it was remarkable to people who were convinced of who the are going to vote for. at this point, the paper we're out, they thinking, i'm not sure if i and i support trump or not. but there are, i think new writers always coming in there are. but as you don't pay much attention to the news or politics who are open to persuasion that the last minute or even to turn up to vote. and i think those people often bought, you know, with their economic standing and position and security had probably felt a pretty tough during the bible presidency because inflation rights lead to low income people having to pay more for groceries more for petrol. the possibility of wanting to take out a light and get into the housing market has been difficult. so there are things that lead people to be critical, of the current button administration and then

a 2 party system. you get people once that critical thinking, well the other side might be a better choice even if the other side, as being told is the mice that have, you know, responsible position of a generation or even an american bit straight from kind of model memory thing donald trump say that kind of swing visor which is pretty small, a small sliver of the american population. i mean, most people are kind of calcified as republicans or democrats. but that swing by could took the election towards trump and there are a lot of people in america who find it themselves. very module. ready so the place economically, it's a tough society living not much of a safety net in terms of welfare. so that appeal, but things were better on the trump, which there's many arguments to make against the attic. and oh, it's late submitting the arguments to make the president so the government applies to global economic sort of domestic economics. but trump, well,

i think because highly critical of brought by and there's an economic manager and for some of the things that a lot of information vices, that's a potentially probably message john from the market point, severe. who is the better president? is it traumas? oh, is it present in boston? i mean, i think intensive predictable policy and follow trial relations with, with china, which obviously key for the global economy and also relations with europe as well. and then then then fight and would be back to a financial market. it's just purely because of, of a more predictable and more amenable to, to friendly relations with, uh, you know, with the rest of the world, i thought it was really good to get both your perspective. unfortunately, we are out of time. thank you to john harris and managing director of global data to yes, longmont and brendan aqona, professor of us politics and for relations at the university of sydney. thank you by the,

the will in gaza has led to the death of more than 23000 palestinians. tensions on now threatening to spill over into the wide a region right in back to see rebels based in yemen. have been attacking shipping vessels in the gulf, but they say have links to israel, the price of sending goods around the world has that risen significantly over the past 6 weeks because of these disruptions? i'm, they off is that fragile supply chains? hit hot by the coven 19 pandemic may once again be threatened and push up consumer prices just as inflation is coming down to. well, the red sea is one of the wells most important shipping routes for oil and gas between asia and europe. in the south, the narrow bob and dive straight between africa and the radian peninsula connects the red sea with a gulf of 8 and 12 percent of the wells. trade 10 percent of global oil carried by

ships goes through that straight. now the suez canal connects the red sea with the mediterranean sea. it's the shortest shipping bridge between europe and asia. 15 percent of the wealth, maritime traffic pauses for the suez canal. now since november of last year, the who fees have targeted vessels near 5, i'll 9 down forcing may just shipping and oil companies to suspend operations through the red sea. so rerouted vessels will have to make a longer journey all the way down the east coast of africa by the southern tip of the continent to okay, let's hope now to allow. he's an economic and political risk analyst and meaning direct to the global council. thank you so much for joining the program. what has the impact of the hootie attacks and the red sea since november had on shipping delays and at shipping costs will not be freight rates have gone up. an insurance risk premiums. the companies on the right,

these vessels traveling into these risk of authors, those, those opinions have, haven't gone up the popular shanghai to alter them route, which transits the by the month of and then on to the suez canal. the price of freight rates there have gone up 100 percent 120 and 20 percent. so that will have cascading impact. so it will lead to some of the flex any pressures in the global economy. just as inflation was, was cooling down um, overall. and you and, and just to be clear, when we're talking about the shipping containers, we're talking about them carrying everything from shoes to cop pods. so everything becomes more expensive, essentially. absolutely. at the good, the good news is that we haven't seen the massive lags and delays and the delivery of of these goods because supply chains have been rejected since the coven shock. many of the producers may, the suppliers, the customers of the shipping lines, the retailers, they all realize that they can't continue to rely on the dominant model of, of, of before, which was just in time delivery to have very low stockpiles,

very low inventory to keep costs down they realize that they need to build redundancies into supply chains and make things in different countries so that they can be resilience actually. and supply chains have been remarkably resilient to this. to this shock. we have just started seeing and station come down in many parts of weld. is this going to be a problem though? is this going to start hitting warehouse again? it with a log. it depends also on, on how acute and how long, how sustained these attacks keep happening. as long as the warrant goes. what happens as long as israel continues to, to prosecute this company? i think that these will, will keep, will keep talking to these vessels 10 for some of the wells. oil is also normally transported through these rates. so what kind of destruction are we talking to the oil and gas markets. what we have to realize 1st, at the hope these aren't actually targeting fuel tankers, as oil and gas has been largely kept aside from this confrontation. so most of the hoops, the fuel tank or so. so most of the fuel tankers actually are still continuing to

transit the suez canal and you haven't seen oil and gas prices being that sensitive . so they went up a little bit, but they, they, they come, they come back down. more serious is the straight to formulas where most of the oil coming from this region transits and that hasn't really been effected and hasn't been targeted. so there is no no concern so far on energy security. i wonder if that could change because the united states has announced this multinational naval task force to patrol the southern parts of the red sea. are you concerned or invest is concerned? it's all about some kind of escalation going on because of that. the look, the scope for miscalculation in, in these waters is, is always going to be there. that risk is always going to be there. but if you look at the market fundamentals, oil, gas markets are very well supplies supplied right now. the gas is supplied to europe is very healthy. the us producing energy at record levels. and europe today is importing more and more gas from,

from the us. there will be added cost because the tankers, this, the freight rates also for, for vessels that are moving energy around the world are going up. so you, you saw yesterday that asian consumers, asian buyers of, of oil are buying more from the region because the shorter distance than buying us crude, which with, which is much longer distance and will, will cost a lot more. so there are built in effects. do you think that the attacks in the red sea, by the who these will stop if the wind also stops or i do think so because it, but the words is going to stop anytime soon. that you know, the cabinet to the work cabinet and the security cabinets in israel is talking about 12 months, maybe 24 months. might go to a lower intensity of the confrontation with, with, with some us. but there's no end of the sites. but i, i do think that they are timing, get such that it continues during, during the war we have, of course, the us elections coming up this year. and we,

as you have been saying, there is concern that the gospel will continue throughout the rest of 2024. how do you think that the us elections are going to play into the war and gaza? the americans alters vote with their pocket books they, they rarely vote on foreign policy issues that has been you know, historically the trend, if you don't talk about the 2 candidates, you know, if, if it's a biden versus trump ticket, you know, that's very unpredictable. what trump will do, and he's, he's a personality driven and he and that's more risky. and that is more risky. but, uh, you know, mentioned yahoo and, and trump had a quite a solid relationship. the negotiated that a brand records and that trump got that recognition for it, that move the embassy and so forth. but he had a bad end to the relationship with it. then you all, you didn't, you didn't, you know when the thing you all congratulate to by then and recognize the victory. that's something that slight the trump. so it's hard to predict how you will. that

said, trump is about america 1st it's, it's, he's looking at, you know, selfishly, what does this, we're doing to a narrow us self interest. he made a career that's on ukraine. he will end the support. the us will not cut the blank check to ukraine. so 11 maybe looks at is really a bit different to because of the, the iron clad link between those 2 countries. but i think he will have a more isolationist, a foreign policy in general. what about the trade implications on the trump rather than biden global trade? that is. so trump, i think we'll continue this reassuring efforts that the buy them to introduce these 2 pieces of, of legislation, the inflation reduction act, and the chips act. it's all part of an attempt to bring manufacturing back on in, on to american to be couple as much from china and to depend less on, on global supply. to all goes back to the shock of, of, of cobit and the short digits of,

of personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals, and the realization that america couldn't continue to rely on global supply chain. so a trade will, will be affected. and in that way, what about see, i mean, it was interesting on the trunk. we so very much a normalization of relations between our countries to israel and that came to stop very much because of the wind garza. if we go back to trump again, how do you see will that play now? so it's hard to see more countries normalizing with israel in this climate doesn't matter who's in the white house, the concessions. the palestinians who has been in the, in the 1st edition of the abram accords were nothing but lip service and occupation continues. this island building continues, so there is this grand bargain that it so between saudi arabia and israel brokered by the us, is unlikely to happen any time soon. and the concessions to the palestinians and

palestinian statehood will be right at the center of of that. so i think normalization will be very difficult for any our public, an area or a government to pursue at this time. but we've been talking about elections uh earlier in this program. we've talked about the us selection with you. there are a number of elections and imagine markets. the caea 2024 is one of the is where we'll see the most number of elections in the emerging markets of any particular countries that stand out for you is particularly risky. one we should be paying attention more to. for example, we have south africa, we have india, we have taiwan, a number of emerging market elections. so type one, i don't follow the, the, the domestic. the top one is for me, is most important one, because depending on the outcome and how pro china, or antique china, the, the winner is it will depend, it will affect how the us looked at the taiwan straits. and as we know, taiwan is incredibly important for the global economy, because if it's world leading semi conductor industry. so that's one election that

i would, i would look at very closely if, if, if the rate, if the system and china looked at taiwan and said that this is the year we're going to go for taiwan and re re united with mainland china because of the outcome of the elections, and that would be the most serious one because we've, we saw that some forecasts are putting the economic shock as 10 trillion dollar economic shop shock. if there's a war between taiwan and china. finally, you are a risk unless that is that is your jolt that is your trade year in year, year out. how would to compact 2024 from a risk point to say previous years? sure. well, i'd say so on, on the kinetic wars, you know, hot towards that was that we think you political risk really spike. we have the, the word that's in the region that spilling over lebanon is being drawn, drawn in, and hoped he's in a rock. we have the biggest conventional war in in mainland europe since world war 2. and that continues to redrawn with,

with hundreds of thousands of casualties. and we have potentially what could be a catastrophic or for the global economy between taiwan and china, which some of those sourcing isn't too far into the, into the future. so i, i'd say that's on one hand built. on the other hand, it's extreme weather events and the economic destruction that will happen with more unpredictable weather patterns and you have in the annual cycle, then you have threats to global food security and the migration effects that that would have. so i think that's one really macro risk that i would be following a closely help out. really, really good to get your perspective economic and political risk unless i'm mean to direct to the global council. thank you so much. thank you. that is also the best way to get in touch with us on x. i am not inside to use the hash tag h a c t c. when you do, we can drop us an e mail counseling. acosta analogy is there a don't. net is our address. i'm as notes movie online at al serra dot com slash

b t. c. that will take you straight to our web page, which has individual reports, links and entwined episodes, we need to catch up on. okay, that is that the best edition accounting, the cost on my name's site from the whole team. thanks for joining us. news on al jazeera coming up next. the latest news as it breaks. i don't want you to remember the, on the scene on restoring national in unity with fearless journalism. these people copying show, drawing just came from the relentless bombardment from the hall to the story. many people born long, the cue is open for a meal. so with all very crowded cans, unlimited aids, many are left with desperate need its undisputed good. 72 muslims were massacred in the village of indiana india in 1987 witnesses

say the perpetrators or a model of locals along side the state governments. prevention of constabulary personnel over 30 years later in the district court acquitted the accused to date, no one has been held accountable. people in power asks why the victims continue to be denied justice. india's forgotten must occur on the jersey to the the alarm civil venue is good to have you with us. this is the news our lives from the coming up in the program. this our a 151 palestinians killed and is really air strikes across gaza in the past 24 hours, including several attacks on the residential homes and treating premature babies

and other patients by flashlights.