so on monday, john henry reports from ios capital de moines. it's a strange way to run an election. take a not particularly representative state, overwhelmingly, white, rural, and heavily religious vend, during the coldest and most inhospitable time of year, lit it. we know down the candidates for the most powerful job in the world. they can throw a blizzard at us in the iowa caucuses on monday. republicans are casting the 1st vote to be counted in the 2024 presidential primary campaign, leading massively and iowa. donald trump, for 77 year old former president who was voted out of office as a runaway lead in the polls. i wanted big when i did that, they've talked as high as 40 percent. that would be delighted if it was a 40 percent win for trump. so all the sporting interest is in the battle for 2nd place with florida governor rhonda santas and former south carolina governor nikki haley sparring for the right to be the alternative to trump. presumably the top 3

vote theater. sort of the republicans and try to stay out as an hailey on whatever 2nd and 3rd place order that happens to be that's what's gonna happen. i think that might just make them haley hopes, winning silver in iowa. will mark the end of the sand. his campaign great again. the weather has a vote in this election, temperatures are expected to dip to minus 28 degrees celsius. that would make these of a clean list. iowa caucus is ever forecasters or calling it flashed by conditions that could seriously depress, turn out and mean only the hardy is voters decide who went one major committed group in iowa, evangelical christians. some are looking for an alternative. but despite trumps 3 divorces, to impeachment and 91 criminal charges, many of them like a lot of evangelicals have support trump that you just can't strip away because

they see the things that are happening to have. they think he's being persecuted. they see him as a martyr with little suspense about who's likely to win in iowa. the campaigns focus now is largely on meeting expectations. if you're the top dog and you're supposed to like cream, the competition and you kind of sorta do, but not quite often enough that can be a to see meeting or falling short of those expectations can determine who has momentum is the race moves on to other states john henry and l g 0, des moines, iowa. that's it for me. you can find lots more on our website as always, i just need a dot com counting. the cost is up. next, we're back in hoffman the why am i double? what kind of flips through the pages of his books. he was hoping to be

a doctor. but the fighting in savannah put a stop to studies that if he population here, because across the 600000 and walk most of them under the age of 30, even save this chief when he mentioned it gets into a classroom. that is another curriculum. and so then is different from what you're trying to get particularly engaged at and send them to ready just schools like this . the priority for now is to provide shelter and full and even that is close in the united way. there is no clear indication as but when refugees students would be able to return home. and to that process. the hello i. my name's like this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business economics. this week 2024 will be the

get a selections around 2000000000 versus will be heading to the polls to pick the governments this year. what will this mean for many struggling with the cost of living crisis, inflation and high interest rates are housing millions. lot more can central banks do, and will we see the end to high rates, or is this the new normal plus disruptions and the red st caused by iran back to the rebels has seen the price of sending goods around the world. spike wiggs out as a threat to the global economy. the 2024 is probably going to be a big if elections around hall for, for wells population will be heading to the polls. no. continent is exempts from lots expect it to be a. yeah. that could shape the future well order. so what does this year have in store for the global economy under the umbrella so much potential political change

will also be looking at the impact, the rising cost of shipping because of tensions in the red sea. bob, brian golf club begins all coverage which is of course at least 64 countries will be choosing the latest and governments in 2024 more than 2000000000 people are eligible to vote in what's being billed as a biggest yet. and global election history spends a dash or 10 prime minister shake has e now for a 5th time this month in the fest of the estimates of the ation nations holding elections into the pakistan on indonesia street lanka and india. one of them is basically contested, will be in taiwan. the outcome is likely to have implications for best the u. s. and china as they compete for influence in the region, us satellite tie one considers itself independent,

but beijing says through all of this part of its territory to be taken by force if necessary. elections for members of the european parliament to take place in june with far right parties, gaining popularity. more than 400000000 virtues are eligible to elect 720 m e p's across 27 countries. since the current 19 pandemic and the war and ukraine, the european union has struggled to bring rising food and energy prices under control and to boost sluggish economic growth. inflation in the blocks largest economy, germany rise at the fastest right in the last 3 months of 2023 dampening expectations that view a pm central bank will cut interest rates soon. a, the case will be passed towards the end of this year. 2024 because uh the easy b as total note on the, on the line. your patience are all tied headlines. nation knows where that will

stand in 6 or 9 months because you don't know where all the prices will be going. and that's, i would be very cautious to pay take to raise cuts in the well, it's not just economy us. president joe biden is hoping to secure a 2nd time in elections in november. his republican rifle, donald trump, is also coming to attend to the white house event, such as the outcomes of was in gauze, or any ukraine along with possible political transitions will determine economic trends. and many tax pass may be hoping for a few political sweetness before deciding the next government barbara and good for counting the cost. what we're doing now by john harrison these managing direct at global data ts loan bottom alongside them. is brendan a cool, nice professor of us politics and foreign relations at the university of sydney? welcome to the sharp i've here, john. let's start with

a brown. broad outlook for the. yeah, according to the well defined, it's high borrowing costs and political uncertainty around the world that is likely to dominate. do you agree? um yes, i mean these are fairly important factors. and markets of growth, financial markets have been very follow tile at the start of it yet, but that doesn't really detract from our overall micro outlook, which is one of the majority slow a g d p growth um, gradual pc inflation, which equals to be good for consumers and ultimately lower interest rates. and so, so that side of things should to should improve. and there are with the costs. inflation could have a resurgence in shipping costs. for example, our in focus at the moment, oil prices. it could also re much as a threat about, but overall we think that with us, the interest rates start us inflation quite close to 3 percent. but the fact will be more biased towards costing rates,

rather than allowing the economy to slip into recession and in europe perhaps if the possibility of right cups could be delayed. they're all vocation members of the c b that could push back if they started as a slight uptake in inflation. and in china we see downside risks to, to growth. that because of the unpredictable nature of a policy making and also the property sector crisis and box it. but overall is picture slide eco, slip slice level gross less inflation and ultimately lower interest rates. i'm doing what about towards the end of the? do you see a slightly better picture by then? yes, i mean the economies you want frequencies low interest traits if they do start in q 2, as we expect then bias on which the end of the year. and you know, the column, it should be picking up a mock, it should be doing much better as a result of that. but of course, you know, we do have selections particularly in the, in the us. and so there is a risk of g,

a political tension, but from a purely an economic perspective, the feed grew from of, of lower interest rates. and lower prices should be, should be good for consumers and good for economic growth. this a good point to tend to brandon as we've been discussing, as john has been saying a big year elections this year. let's start with the west. uh which ones are you watching closely? well, the us selection is where i have my expertise, and i suppose many people follow. it's not just as a political science is or academics, but it almost is kind of sports. when donald trump is involved, it's become popular culture. but the us has become in some way. ready as it's seen as a bit of a politic circus, hey, i the last decade and particularly since the rise of donald trump, psych many people economically i suppose politically socially. ready be asking, ken trump the re elected as you as president. that would have seemed unlikely,

i think when it got defeated in 2020. but the possibility is real. somebody's doing quite well in national polls. it's always crucial where you can win the kate states in the united states, and he's, he's a bit behind bob and then some of those keys states, but improving over time and showing that he is a serious threat to dr. barton to invite and has a weakness on some economic indicators. inflation has been pretty high during his presidency, getting up to 9 percent in 2022. so find this vulnerable simulators probably likely to be an election in the united kingdom light this year. that seems on the cod side to major, so the bank landscape towers with collections that i think move all to all in the united states that most people would say very likely labor victory in the united kingdom with the us selection, i think for electronics. but the mind would largely see it as

a toss up. and the possibility of truck returning, which is extraordinary, is, is very much likely. it will, we will talk a bit further about the us selections. but i do want to ask you about the elections and the imagining markets is, is there any particular country that is standing out for you, perhaps taiwan? yeah, that's what i want election is, is crucial. i mean, it did look for a time that would be 3 candidates now it's the kind of seemingly the whole battle between 2 magic bodies. um, so i think there would be a sense of bided bread if there was more talk of independence, which seems less likely in the selection of the compromise position. seems to be the more dominant and popular position. so i that election ways crucial in taiwan and how china reacts to the chinese elections as is always a crucial. so jared, political hop point to keep, keep affected. so what about you, john? from the emerging markets? wanna invest as paying attention to?

yeah, i mean in terms of collections of assuming, timeline like i can make a few comments on that to mean, you know, we do expect the ruling a big company, d p, p to, to get in the presidency. but they lose control of a parliament. so that may mean that the posting legislation is perhaps quite difficult, and this will not be something that will be approved of by it's by china. and in terms of the ttp candidates, it's likely to be an increase in the intentions. but this will be perhaps more of the same of what we've seen so far in incursions in taiwan save space and perhaps some, some trade terrace and so on. but they will also be carrots, if you'd like to go along with that in, in terms of perhaps we'd like sation of co rules on, on travel and i'm watching and so on. and but as role someone such and see and, and that for some risk of tension since summer school for the killer to you in financial markets as a result. i mean, of course there are many other elections to keep an eye on the most important ones,

perhaps a india so, so mexico. busy and to that so we can discuss it. turning back to the us economy brendan, so we have seen some improvement in the us economy in recent months. how much is that gonna play into how voters decide on who they're gonna vote for? i mean, you would have thought it was remarkable the paper who was convinced of who though going to vote for at this point the people were out there thinking, i'm not sure if i and i support trump or not. but there are, i think new writers always coming in there are, but as you don't pay much attention to the news of politics, who are open to persuasion that the last minute or even to turn up to vice. and i think those people often bought, you know, with their economic standing and position and security had probably felt a pretty tough during the bible presidency because inflation rights lead to low income people having to pay more for groceries. more from intro. the possibility of

wanting to take out a light and get into the housing market has been difficult. so there are things that lead people to be critical, of the kind of button administration and then a 2 party system. you get people once that critical thinking, well the other side might be a better choice even if the other side, as being told is the mice that have, you know, responsible position of a generation or even an american bit straight from kind of model memory thing donald trump say that kind of swing visor which is pretty small, a small sliver of the american population. i mean, most people are kind of calcified as republicans or democrats. but that swing by could tip the election towards trump and there are a lot of people in america who find it themselves. greg module. ready so the 5 places, economically, it's a tough society living not much of a safety net in terms of welfare. so that appeal that things were better on the trump, which there's many arguments to make against the attic. and oh,

it's late depending arguments to make the president. so the government applies to global economic sort of domestic economics. but trump, well, i think because highly critical of brought by and as an economic manager and for some of the things to the law information vices. that's a potentially probably message john from a market point severe. who is the better president? isn't product. oh, is it president boston? i mean, i think in terms of predictable policy and follow trial relations with, with china, which of a c, k for the global economy. and also relations with europe as well, and then then then fight in would be back to a financial market. it's just purely because of, of a more predictable and more amenable to, to friendly relations with that, you know, with the rest of the world. okay. it was really good to get people perspective. unfortunately, we are out of time. thank you to john harrison managing direct take global data ts longmont and brendan aqona, profess of us politics and for relations at the university of sydney. thank you. by

the, the will in gauze that has led to the death of more than 23000 palestinians. tensions on now threatening to spill over into the wider region rainy and back to see rebels based in yemen. have been attacking shipping vessels in the gulf. but they say have links to israel, the price of sending goods around the world has that risen significantly over the past 6 weeks because of these disruptions i'm, they off is that fragile supply chains hit hard by the case of 19 pandemic may once again be threatened and push up consumer prices just as inflation is coming down to . well, the red sea is one of the wells most important shipping routes for oil and gas between asia and europe. in the south, the narrow bob and dab straight between africa and the radian peninsula connects

the red sea with a gulf of 8 and 12 percent of the wells. trade at 10 percent of global oil carried by ships goes through that straight. now the suez canal connects the red sea with the mediterranean sea. it's the shortest shipping bridge between europe and asia. 15 percent of the wealth, maritime traffic pauses for the suez canal. now since november of last year, the who fees have targeted vessels near bob and forcing may just shipping and oil companies to suspend operations through the red sea. so rerouted vessels will have to make a longer journey all the way down the east coast of africa by the southern tip of the continent. okay, let's hope now to i'm at hello, he's an economic and political risk analyst and mean and direct to the global council. thank you so much for joining the program. what has the impact of the who, the attacks and the red sea since november had on shipping delays and at shipping

costs will not be freight rates have gone on an insurance risk premiums. the companies on the right these vessels traveling into these risk and waters. those, those opinions have haven't gone up the popular shanghai to alter them route, which transits the by the month of and then on to the suez canal. the price of freight rates there have gone up 100 percent 120 and 20 percent. so that will have cascading impact, so it will lead to some of the flex any pressures in the global economy. just as inflation was, was cooling down um, overall annual. and just to be clear, when we're talking about the shipping containers, we're talking about them carrying everything from shoes to cop pods. so everything becomes more expensive, essentially. absolutely. at the good, the good news is that we haven't seen the massive lags and delays and the delivery of of these goods because supply chains have been rejected since the coven shock. many of the producers may, the suppliers, the customers of the shipping lines,

the retailers, they all realize that they can't continue to rely on the dominance model of, of, of before, which was just in time delivery to have very low stockpiles, very low inventory to keep costs down they realize that they need to build redundancies into supply chains and make things in different countries so that they can be resilience actually. and supply chains have been remarkably resilient to this, to the shock that we have just started seeing and stationed come down in many parts of the world. is this going to be a problem though? is this going to start hitting warehouse again? it with a log, it depends also on, on how acute and how long, how sustain these attacks keep happening. as long as the world goes. what happens as long as israel continues to, to prosecute this company. i think that these will, will keep, we'll keep talking to these vessels, 10 percent of the wells, oil is full, so normally transported through these rates. so what kind of disruption are we talking to the oil and gas markets? well, we have to realize 1st that the who these aren't actually targeting fuel tankers as

oil and gas has been largely kept aside from this confrontation. so most of the hits the fuel tank or so. so what was, was the fuel tankers actually are still continuing to transit the suez canal and you haven't seen oil and gas prices being that sensitive. so they went up a little bit, but they, they, they come, they come back down. more serious is the straight to formulas where most of the oil coming from this region transits. and that hasn't really been effective and hasn't been targeted. so there is no no concern so far on energy security. i wonder if that could change because the united states has announced this multinational naval task force to patrol the southern parts of the red sea. are you concerned or invest is concerned a tool about some kind of escalation going on because of that to the look. the scope for miscalculation in, in these waters is, is always going to be there. that risk is always going to be there. but if you look at the market fundamentals, oil, gas markets are very well supplied, right? supplied right now. the gas is supplied to europe is very healthy. the us producing

energy at record levels. and europe today is importing more and more gas from, from the us. there will be added costs because the tankers, this, the freight rates also for, for vessels that are moving energy around the world are going up. so you saw yesterday that asian consumers, asian buyers of, of oil are buying more from the region because the shorter distance than buying us crude, which with, which is much longer distance and will, will cost a lot more. so there are built in effects. do you think that the attacks in the red sea, by the who these will stop if the war and also stops? i do think so because it, but the words and gonna stop anytime soon. that you know, the cabinets, the work cabinet and the security cabinet. and israel is talking about 12 months, maybe 24 months, might go to a lower intensity of the confrontation with, with, with some us. but there's no end insights. but i,

i do think that if they are timing, it's such that it continues during, during the war we have of course, the us elections coming up this year. and we, as you have been saying, there was concerned that the gospel will continue throughout the rest of 2024. how do you think that the us elections are going to play into the war and gaza? the american voters voted their pocketbooks. they, they rarely vote on foreign policy issues that has been, you know, historically the trend, if you don't talk about the 2 candidates, you know, if, if it's a biden versus trump ticket, you know, it's very unpredictable what trump will do. and he's, he's a personality driven and he and that's more risky. and that is more risky. but, you know, mentoring yahoo and, and trump had a quite a solid relationship to negotiate that, that a brand records. and that trump got that recognition for it, that move the embassy and so forth. but he had

a bad and the relationship with it. then you all, you didn't, you didn't, you know when the thing you all congratulate to by then and recognize the victory. that's something that slight the trump, so it's hard to predict how you will. that said, trump is about america 1st it's, it's, he's looking at, you know, selfishly, what does this we're doing to a narrow us self interest. he's made a career that's on ukraine. he will end the support, the us will not cut the blank check to ukraine. so 11 maybe looks at is really a bit different to because of the, the iron clad link between those 2 countries. but i think he will have a more isolationist, a foreign policy in general. what about the trade implications on the trump, rather than biden global trade? that is. so trump, i think we'll continue this reassuring efforts that the by them is introduced. these 2 pieces of, of legislation, the official reduction act and the chips act. it's all part of an attempt to bring manufacturing back on in,

on to american to be couple as much from china and to depend less on, on global suppliers at all. it goes back to the shock of, of, of kobe then, and the short digits of, of personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals, and the realization that america couldn't continue to rely on global supply chain. so a trade will, will be effected. and that way, what about see, i mean, it was interesting on the trunk. we so very much a normalization of relations between our countries to israel and that came to stop very much because of the wind garza. if we go back to trump again, how do you see will that play? now it's, it's hard to see more countries normalizing with israel in this climate doesn't matter who's in the white house, the concessions. the palestinians who has been in the, in the 1st edition of the abram accords, were nothing but lip service and occupation continues to supplement building continues. so there was this grand bargain that it so between saudi arabia and

israel brokered by the us. it's unlikely to happen any time soon and the concessions to the palestinians and palestinian statehood will be right at the center of of that. so i think normalization will be very difficult for any our public, an area or a government to pursue at this time. but we've been talking about elections earlier in this program. we've talked about the us selection with you, their number of elections and imagine markets this year 2024 is one of the is where we'll see the most number of collections in the emerging markets. of any particular countries that stand out for you is particularly risky. one, we should be paying attention more to. for example, we have south africa, we have india, we have taiwan, a number of emerging market elections. so type one, i don't follow that the domestic one is for me is most important one because depending on the outcome and how pro china, or antique china, the,

the winner is it will depend, it will affect how the us looked at the taiwan straits and as we know taiwan is incredibly important for the global economy because if it's world leading, semi conductor industry. so that's one election that i would, i would look at very closely if, if, if the rate, if the system in china looked at the taiwan and said that this is the year we're going to go for taiwan and re re united with mainland china because of the outcome of the elections, and that would be the most serious one because we've, we saw that some forecasts are putting the economic shock as 10 trillion dollar economics on shock. if there's a war between taiwan and china, finally, you are a risk unless that is that is your job. that is your trade year, and yet you're out. how would to compact 2024 from a risk point to say previous he is sure. well, i'd say so on, on the kinetic wars, you know, hot tours that were there, we think geopolitical risk, really spike. we have the word that's in the region that spilling over lebanon's,

being drawn, drawn in, hope these in iraq. we have the biggest conventional war in in mainland europe since world war 2. and that continues to redrawn with, with hundreds of thousands of casualties. and we have potentially what could be a catastrophic or for the global economy between taiwan and china, which some of the sourcing isn't too far into the, into the future. so i, i'd say that's on one hand, dealt on the other hand, it's extreme weather events and the economic destruction that will happen with more unpredictable weather patterns and you have in the annual cycle, then you have switched to global foot security and the migration effects that that would have so i think that's one really macro risk that i would be following a closely help out really, really good to get your perspective economic and political risk unless i'm mean to direct to the global council. thank you so much. thank you. that is also the best way to get in touch with us on the x, i am not inside to use the hash tag

h a c t c. when you do, we can drop us an e mail counseling. acosta analogy is there a don't. net is addressed. i'm as notes movie online at al serra dot com slash ctc. that will take you straight to our web page, which has individual reports, links and entwined episodes. we need to catch up on okay, that is at to best edition accounting. the cost on my name's site from the whole team. thanks for joining us. news on al jazeera coming up next. this is the 1st genocide that we see in the there's a disconnect between what we are witnessing on social media versus what we're seeing on mainstream media. the listening post covers have in use is called the

the, [000:00:00;00] the have them think of this is the news live from the coming up in the next 60 minutes, stabbing and call ramming attacks. most of telling me to for that at least one person has been killed a 19 engine shop and we will, the children pulled from the rubble off to is really