75 percent of the operational capacity to launch missiles and drones and the events . so recent hours would appear to bid this out. now us, president biden has pledged that they will be a response. should the tax on shipping in the red sea continue? well, he's being at martin luther king, celebration soups, but things happen till ways gone to pine rights group said this video shows the bodies of about 65 inches from an armed group. once i lied with the government, they say government troops killed them and some of the families on tuesday, near the city of penny, after a full out. the army denies it. its soldiers have struggled to contain them. 23 is advances in the last 2 years. the cumulative governments been seeking for and support in east african regional force came and went without sending the conflict. a force from southern african countries deployed last month, but most of its troops have not yet arrived. this is what,

let me show. it is very clear, the mission of the force from the southern african development community is offensive country to the other missions we had here. this is what we and populations are expecting from this mission. more than half a 1000000 people have said that homes since and 23. we started an old conflict 2 years ago. most people here escape the cold, but yet more foreign forces can help malcolm web. i'll just say era. you can find more information on our website out. is there a dot com counting? the cost is that makes the the,

[000:00:00;00] the hello i, my name's like, this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business economics. this week 2024 will be the get of elections around 2000000000 versus will be heading to the polls to pick the governments this. yeah. what will this mean so many struggling with the cost of

living crisis inflation and high interest rates or housing millions. what more can central banks do, and will we see the end to high rates, or is this the new normal plus disruptions and the red st caused by iran back to the rebels has seen the price of sending goods around the world. spike wiggs out as a threat to the global economy. the 2024 is probably going to be a big if elections around hall for, for wells population will be heading to the polls. no. continent is exempts from lots expect it to be a. yeah. that could shape the future well order. so what does this you have in store for the global economy under the umbrella? so much potential political change will also be looking at the impact of the rising cost of shipping because of tensions in the red sea. albrighton, gulf or begins are coverage and that is across at least 64 countries

will be choosing the latest and governments in 2024 more than 2000000000 people are eligible to vote in what's being billed as a biggest yet and global election history. bank the dash for 10 prime minister, shake hands see now for a 5th time this months in the fest of the estimates of the ation nations holding elections into the pakistan on indonesia street lanka and india. one of the most famously contested will be in taiwan. the outcome is likely to have implications for best the u. s. and china as they compete, for instance, in the region us satellite tie one considers itself independent, but beijing says through all of this part of its territory to be taken by force if necessary. elections for members of the european parliament to take place in june with far right parties, gaining popularity. more than 400000000 voters are eligible to elect 720 m e

p's across 27 countries. since the current 19 pandemic and the war and ukraine, the european union has struggled to bring rising food and energy prices under control and to boost sluggish economic growth. inflation in the blocks largest economy, germany rise at the fastest rate in the last 3 months of 2023 dampening expectations that the european central bank will cut interest rate soon. the case will be passed towards the end of this year, 2024 because uh the easy b as total note on the, on the line. your patience are all tied headlines. nation knows where that will stand in 6 or 9 months because you don't know where all your prices will be going and that's, i would be very cautious to pay, take the right cuts in the well, it's not just economy us. president joe biden is hoping to secure

a 2nd time in election in november. his republican rifle, donald trump, is also coming to attend to the white house event, such as the outcomes of was in gauze, and when the crane along with possible political transitions will determine economic trends. and many tax pass may be hoping for a few political sweetness before deciding the next government barbara and good for counting the cost. what we're doing now by john harrison these managing direct at global data ts loan bottom alongside them. is brendan a cool, nice professor of us politics and foreign relations at the university of sydney? welcome to the sharp i've here, john. let's start with a brown. broad outlook for the. yeah, according to the well defined, it's high borrowing costs and political uncertainty around the world that is likely to dominate. do you agree? um yes, i mean these are fairly important factors. and markets of growth, financial markets have been very follow tile at the start of it yet,

but that doesn't really detract from our overall micro outlook, which is one of moderately slow, a g d p growth um, gradual pc inflation, which equals to be good for consumers. and ultimately lower interest rates and so, so that side of things should, to should improve. and there are risks the costs. inflation could have a resurgence in shipping costs, for example, our in focus at the moment, oil prices. it could also be much as a threat about, but overall we think that with us, the interest rates, sorry, us inflation, quite close to 3 percent. but the effect will be more biased towards costing rates, rather than allowing the economy to slip into recession and in europe perhaps if the possibility of right cups could be delayed. they're all vocation members of the c b that could push back if they started as

a slight uptake in inflation. and in china we see downside risks to, to growth. that because of the unpredictable nature of a policy making and also the property sector crisis and box it. but overall it's a picture slide equal slipped slice level gross less inflation and ultimately lower interest rates. i'm doing. what about towards the end of the, do you see a slightly better picture by then? yes, i mean the economies you want frequencies low interest traits. if they do stop in q 2, as we expect then bias on which she end of the year. and you know, the column, it should be picking up a mock, it should be doing much better as a result of that. but of course, you know, we do have selections particularly in the, in the us. and so there is a risk of g, a political tension, but from a purely economic perspective, the feed grew from of, of lower interest rates and lower prices should be, should be good for consumers and good for economic growth. this

a good point to tend to brandon as we've been discussing, as john has been saying a big year elections this year. let's start with the west. uh which ones are you watching closely? well, the us selection is where i have my expertise, and i suppose many people follow. it's not just as a political sciences or academics, but it almost is kind of sports. when donald trump is involved, it's become popular culture. but the us has become in some way. ready as it's seen as a bit of a political circus, hey, i the last decade and particularly since the rise of donald trump, psych many people economically i suppose politically socially. ready be asking, ken trump the re elected as you as president. that would have seemed unlikely, i think when it got defeated in 2020. but the possibility is real, somebody's doing quite well in national polls. it's always crucial where you can win the kate states in the united states, and he's, he's a bit behind bob and then some of those keys states,

but improving over time and showing that he is a serious threat to dr. barton to invite and has a weakness on some economic indicators. inflation has been pretty high during his presidency, getting up to 9 percent in 2022. so find this vulnerable simulators probably likely to be an election in the united kingdom light this year. that seems on the cod side to major. so the bank landscape towers with collections that i think move walter island, the united states, that most people would say very likely labor victory in the united kingdom with the us selection. i think for electronics, but the mind would largely see it as a toss up. and the possibility of trouble or training which is extraordinary, is, is very much likely. it will, we will talk a bit further about the us selections. but i do want to ask you about the elections and the imagining markets is, is there any particular country that is standing out for you, perhaps taiwan?

yeah, that's what i want election is, is crucial. i mean, it did look for a time that would be 3 candidates now it's the kind of seemingly the whole battle between 2 magic bodies. um, so i think there would be a sense of bided bread if there was more talk of independence, which seems less likely in the selection of the compromise position. seems to be the more dominant and popular position. so i that election ways crucial in taiwan and how china reacts to the chinese elections as is always a crucial. so jared, political hop point to keep, keep affected. so what about you, john? from the emerging markets? wanna invest as paying attention to? yeah, i mean in terms of elections, of seeming timeline, like i can make a few comments on that to mean, you know, we do expect the ruling a big company, d p, p to, to get in the presidency. but they lose control of a parliament. so that may mean that the posting legislation is perhaps quite

difficult, and this will not be something that will be approved of by it's by china. and in terms of the ttp candidates, it's likely to be an increase in the intentions. but this will be perhaps more of the same of what we've seen so far in incursions in taiwan save space and perhaps some, some trade terrace and so on. but they will also be carrots, if you'd like to go along with that in, in terms of perhaps we'd like sation of co rules on, on travel and i'm watching and so on. and but as role someone search and see and, and that for some risk of tensions and some risk of all the tennessee and financial markets as a result. i mean, of course there are many other elections to keep an eye on the most important ones . perhaps india also mexico. busy and to that so we can discuss it. turning back to the us economy brendan, so we have seen some improvement in the us economy in recent months. how much is

that gonna play into how voters decide on who they're going to vote for? i mean, you would have thought it was remarkable the paper who was convinced of who though going to vote for at this point the people were out there thinking, i'm not sure if i and i support trump or not. but there are, i think new writers always coming in there are, but as you don't pay much attention to the news of politics, who are open to persuasion that the last minute or even to turn up to vice. and i think those people often bought, you know, with their economic standing and position and security had probably felt a pretty tough during the bible presidency because inflation rights lead to low income people having to pay more for groceries more for petrol. the possibility of wanting to take out a light and get into the housing market has been difficult. so there are things that lead people to be critical, of the kind of button administration and then a 2 party system. you get people once that critical thinking, well the other side might be a better choice even if the other side,

as being told is the mice that have, you know, responsible politicians of a generation or even an american bit straight from kind of model memory thing donald trump say that kind of swing visor which is pretty small, a small sliver of the american population. i mean, most people are kind of calcified as republicans or democrats. but that swing by could tip the election towards trump and there are a lot of people in america who find it themselves. greg module. ready so the 5 places, economically, it's a tough society living not much of a safety net in terms of welfare. so that appeal, but things were better on the trump, which there's many arguments to make against the attic. and oh, it's like the meaning arguments to make the president so the government applies to global economic sort of domestic economics. but trump, well, i think because highly critical of brought by and as an economic manager and for some of the things that are low information vices, that's

a potentially probably message john from a market point severe. who is the better president? isn't product. oh, is it president boston? i mean, i think in terms of predictable policy and follow trial relations with, with china, which obviously key for the global economy and also relations with europe as well. and then then then fight in would be back to a financial market. it's just purely because of, of a more predictable and more amenable to, to friendly relations with the, you know, with the rest of the world. okay. it was really good to get both your perspectives . unfortunately, we are out of time. thank you to john harrison, managing direct take global data ts longmont and brendan aqona, professor of us politics and for relations at the university of sydney. thank you. by the the will in gauze that has led to the death of more than 23000 palestinians. tensions

on now threatening to spill over into the wider region rainy and back to see rebels based in yemen, have been attacking shipping vessels in the gulf. but they say have links to israel . the price of sending goods around the world has that risen significantly over the past 6 weeks because of these disruptions i'm, they off is that fragile supply chains hit hard by the case of 19 pandemic may once again be threatened and push up consumer prices just as inflation is coming down to well, the red sea is one of the wells most important shipping routes for oil and gas between asia and europe. in the south, the narrow bob and dab straight between africa on the radian peninsula, connects the red sea with a gulf of 8 and 12 percent of the wells trade. a 10 percent global oil carried by ships goes through that straight. now the suez canal connects the red sea with the mediterranean sea,

it's the shortest shipping bridge between europe and asia. 15 percent of the wealth maritime traffic passes through the suez canal. now since november of last year, the herd fees have targeted vessels near bob and forcing may just shipping and oil companies to suspend operations through the red sea. so rerouted vessels will have to make a longer journey all the way down the east coast of africa by the southern tip of the continent. okay, let's hope now to let hello. he's an economic and political risk analyst and meaning direct to the global council. thank you so much for joining the program. what has the impact of the who t a tax and the red see since november had on shipping delays and at shipping costs will not be freight rates have gone on an insurance risk premiums. the companies on the right, these vessels traveling into these risk waters, those, those opinions have haven't gone up the popular shanghaied throughout their down

route. which transits the by the month of and then on to the suez canal. the price of fried rates there have gone up 100 percent 120 and 20 percent. so that will have cascading impact. so it will lead to some of the flex. any pressure is in the global economy just as inflation was, was cooling down. um, overall annual and just to be clear, when we're talking about the shipping containers, we're talking about them carrying everything from shoes to cop pods. so everything becomes more expensive essentially. absolutely. at the good, the good news is that we haven't seen the massive lags and delays and the delivery of, of these goods because of supply chains have been rejected since the coven shock. many of the producers may, the suppliers, the customers of the shipping lines, the retailers, they all realize that they can't continue to rely on the dominance model of, of, of before, which was just in time delivery to have very low stockpiles, very low inventory to keep costs down they realize that they need to build redundancies into supply chains and make things in different countries so that they

can be resilience. so actually the supply chains have been remarkably resilient to this, to the shock that we have just started seeing inflation come down in many parts of the world. is this going to be a problem though? is this going to start hitting warehouse again? it with a lag. it depends also on, on how acute and how long, how sustain these attacks keep happening. as long as the warrant goes. what happens as long as israel continues to, to prosecute this company? i think that these will, will keep, we'll keep talking to these vessels, 10 percent of the wells, oil is full, so normally transported through these rates. so what kind of disruption are we talking to the oil and gas markets? well, we have to realize 1st that the who these aren't actually targeting fuel tankers as oil and gas has been largely capt. aside from this confrontation, so most of the hits the fuel tank or so. so what was, was the fuel tankers actually are still continuing to transit this was cut out and you haven't seen oil and gas prices being that sensitive. so they went up a little bit, but they, they, they come,

they come back down. more serious is the straight to formulas where most of the oil coming from this region transits and that hasn't really been effected and hasn't been targeted. so there is no no concern so far on energy security. i wonder if that could change because the united states has announced this multinational naval task force to patrol the southern parts of the red sea. are you concerned or invest is concerned a tool about some kind of escalation going on because of that to the look. the scope for miscalculation in, in these waters is, is always going to be there. that risk is always going to be there. but if you look at the market fundamentals, oil, gas markets are very well supplied, right? supplied right now. the gas is supplied to europe is very healthy. the us producing energy at record levels. and europe today is importing more and more gas from, from the us. there will be added costs because the tankers, the, the freight rates also for,

for vessels that are moving energy around the world are going up. so you saw yesterday that asian consumers, asian buyers of, of oil are buying more from the region because the shorter distance than buying us crude, which with, which is much longer distance and will, will cost a lot more. so there are built in effects. do you think that the attacks in the red sea, by the who these will stop if the war and also stops? i do think so because it, but the words and gonna stop anytime soon. that you know, the cabinets, the work cabinet and the security cabinet. and israel is talking about 12 months, maybe 24 months, might go to a lower intensity of the confrontation with, with, with some us. but there's no end insights. but i, i do think that they are timing, it's such that it continues during, during the war we have, of course, the us elections coming up this year. and we, as you have been saying, there was concerned that the gospel will continue throughout the rest of 2024. how

do you think that the us elections are going to play into the war and gaza? american voters voted their pocketbooks. they, they rarely vote on foreign policy issues that has been, you know, historically the trend, if you don't talk about the 2 candidates, you know, if, if it's a biden versus trump ticket, you know, it's very unpredictable what trump will do. and he's, he's a personality driven and he and that's more risky. and that is more risky. but, uh, you know, mentioned yahoo and, and trump had a quite a solid relationship to negotiate that, that a brand records. and then trump got that recognition for it that move the embassy and so forth. but he had a bad end to the relationship with it. then you all, you didn't, you didn't, you know when the thing you all congratulate to by then i recognize the victory. that's something that slight the trump, so it's hard to predict how you will. that said, trump is about america 1st it's, it's, he's looking at, you know, selfishly, what does this we're doing to

a narrow us self interest. he made it clear that on ukraine he will end the support . the us will not cut the blank check to ukraine. so 11 maybe looks it is really a bit different to because of the, the iron clad link between those 2 countries. but i think he will have a more isolationist, a foreign policy in general. what about the trade implications on the trump, rather than biden global trade? that is. so trump, i think we'll continue this reassuring effort that the by them is introduced. these 2 pieces of, of legislation, the ethics reduction act and the chips act. it's all part of an attempt to bring manufacturing back on in, on to american to be couple as much from china and to depend less on, on global suppliers at all. it goes back to the shock of, of, of kobe then, and the short digits of, of, of personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals. the realization that america

couldn't continue to rely on global supply chain. so a trade will, will be effected. and that way, what about see, i mean, it was interesting on the trunk. we so very much a normalization of relations between our countries to israel and that came to stop very much because of the wind garza. if we go back to trump again, how do you see will that play now? so it's hard to see more countries normalizing with israel in this climate doesn't matter who's in the white house, the concessions. the palestinians who has been in the, in the 1st edition of the abram accords were nothing but lip service and occupation continues to supplement. building continues, so there was this grand bargain that it so between saudi arabia and israel brokered by the us. it's unlikely to happen anytime soon. and the concessions to the palestinians and palestinian statehood will be right at the center of of that. so i think normalization will be very difficult for any our public, an area or

a government to pursue at this time. but we've been talking about elections earlier in this program. we've talked about the us selection with you, their number of elections and imagine markets this year 2024 is one of the is where we'll see the most number of collections in the emerging markets. of any particular countries that stand out for you is particularly risky. one, we should be paying attention more to. for example, we have south africa, we have india, we have taiwan, a number of emerging market elections. so type one, i don't follow the, the domestic a to one is for me is most important one because depending on the outcome and how pro china, or a antique china, the, the winner is, it will depend, it will affect how the us looked at the taiwan straits and as we know, taiwan is incredibly important for the global economy because if it's world leading semi conductor industry. so that's one election that i would, i would look at very closely if, if, if the rate, if the system in china looked at the taiwan and said that this is the year we're

going to go for taiwan and re re united with mainland china because of the outcome of the elections, and that would be the most serious one because we've, we saw that some forecasts are putting the economic shock as 10 trillion dollar economics on shock. if there's a war between taiwan and china, finally, you are a risk unless that is that is your job. that is your trade year in year. you're out . how would to compact 2024 from a risk point to say previous he is sure. well, i'd say so on, on the kinetic wars, you know, hot tours that were there were things you political risk, really spike. we have the word that's in the region that spilling over lebanon's, being drawn, drawn in, hope these in iraq. we have the biggest conventional war in in mainland europe since world war 2. and that continues to redrawn with, with hundreds of thousands of casualties. and we have potentially what could be a catastrophic or for the global economy between taiwan and china,

which some of the sourcing isn't too far into the, into the future. so i, i'd say that's on one hand, dealt on the other hand, it's extreme weather events and the economic destruction that will happen with more unpredictable weather patterns and you have in the annual cycle, then you have switched to global foot security and the migration effects that that would have so i think that's one really macro risk that i would be following a closely help out really, really good to get your perspective economic and political risk unless i'm mean to direct to the global council. thank you so much. thank you. that is also the best way to get in touch with us on the x, i am not inside to use the hash tag h i c t c. when you do, we can drop us an e mail counseling. acosta analogy is there a don't. net is addressed. i'm as notes movie, online algebra dot com slash b to c. that will take you straight to our web page, which has individual reports,

links and entwined episodes. we need to catch up on okay, that is at to best edition accounting. the cost on my name's site from the whole team. thanks for joining us. news on al jazeera coming up next. a unique perspective. some people need to see these really moving from pieces of imagery to wake up on heard voices for 2 people. and it's really are sticking up against door right now. i want to be one of them. connect with our community and talking to conversations you will find elsewhere. i hate healthy human noises, but then you know, so i want to go and you know, as if you were to happen to next to the street on out to 0. what we do it all just there is try to follow this story and leave the people who allow us into their lives. they get you into minus see

the ron's reputation. me. god says it's targeted to what it called, nc wrong groups, and the kurdish region of north american syria, the terry johnson. this is all just here a lot from also on the program. i'm asked for, this is a new video of a captive who says 2 of the captives were killed by as many military strikes and guns that children in shock posed from the rubble of the israel's latest attacks on