really a digital firm see an investigator, but we're doing it from space design to inform, motivates and expand. you want to compete at the olympic games. they come, stay, relax, see the well, from a different perspective. on elders here the international monetary fund, products, strong growth from russia's economy this year. let's just find sanctions imposed for the invasion of ukraine. european nations trail, well behind russia in the i am at full cost. so what's behind these figures? do sanctions actually work? this is inside story, the hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian instead of going rushes invasion of ukraine almost 2 years ago has been met with the harshest regime of sanctions

imposed on a country. so russia coming 3rd behind india and china and the global growth full costs from the international monetary fund may surprise money. that's also off the conscription into the army for launched numbers of russian workers and the hundreds of thousands who fled the country since the war began. despite the old f, what's behind the optimistic full costs for russia's economy? do international sanctions actually work? not justin rushman elsewhere will be on scale. guess this lots more in a few moments, but 1st a report from katya lopez for the. yeah. it looks like 2024 will be a good a year for russia's economy. the international monetary fund predicts a 2.6 percent growth in russian g d p. that despite widespread sections in the crippling the kremlin for invading ukraine, blood rushes, so cold war economy and military spending are driving much of the growth. raising questions on whether sanctions have become relevant. we are resolved to continue

imposing massive costs on russia. the costs as well for the isolate russia from the international financial system and our economies. and now 2 years into the war president vladimir putin has managed to get around some western sanctions by using allies to obtain technology, such as computer chips needed for weapons to fight and ukraine using so called shadow ships is another way of russia is getting around. you sanctions by passing the $60.00 per barrel price cap on oil exports by hiding the vessels, port of oregon ownership and route to the move. allow shipments to reach major customers, such as china and india, keeping rushes vital oil, trade and income flowing. in contrast to russia's expected growth, the am, if has downgraded germany,

europe's strongest economy. high energy price is caused in part by sanctions on russian oil and gas in ports or fueling the phone. german leaders are defiant despite the risk of recession dodge, i'll take him, turn up sonata from fall given. he has an international responsibility we bank and crime has the world's 2nd largest financial supporter. contribution remains unchanged and above 0.6 percent of the economic output and up to not. it's unclear if russia can maintain predicted growth in the long term without it's more economy . but the i a, my figures are raising questions on whether stations designed to hurt moscow at that fired patsy a little bit. so again, elders 0 for insights story. russia is one of several countries on the international sanctions, but it tops the total so it can escalate it by data specialists. custom built a i for the send, the show russian faces almost 19000. the sanctions before the invasion of ukraine,

around 2740 in force trading well behind russia is around with almost 5000 syria faces just over 2800 sanctions. north korea is next week, maybe 2200 and then comes russia's neva bell roofs with almost 1500 next to me on the and then venezuela sanctions against russia have been imposed by countries including the u. s. t e u, the u. k. a straight to canada and japan. all right, let's bring it out. guess for today's discussion for us, started in catholics on web joined by chris with us. who is the chief executive of micro advisory? that's a strategic business consultancy focused on russia. you raise up from that always in capital. also we're joined by and build sites who's a sanctions expert who found the country risk analysis company co risk. he also helped to write a recent report, the investigative how russian sanctions are being ignored and from washington

d. c. anatole leaving is the director of the razor program at the quincy institute for responsible state craft. and gentleman, welcome to you all. i'll start with you then chris, what do you make of these up? domestic growth, full cost figures for russia? well, they look optimistic, but it's an extra affects. uh but, but really those numbers show is that the economy is stabilized. is, is large the being driven, but with a combination of a military industrial, complex spending, which is having, of course, a big impact the economy. and also the fact that the incomes being rising so strongly last year. and again, i expected to this year, i'm gonna sit double digits, really broad switches driving consumption. so it's those 2 factors that are supporting this, you know, up to mistake a forecast we expect between 2 to 2.5 percent growth. so not too dissimilar to the

i m f. we expect that the government will come up with very strong numbers for 2023 for last year. the company ministry for administered just recently said that he thinks that you do pay for 2023 could actually have been 3.5 or even a little bit better. but it is very much down to the military industrial complex spending under recovery and consumption. it is not a reflection of kind of a broad economic recovery. it's not an indication of an economy test. you know, that that's a, as seen, sustains growth across multiple sectors. it's a very specific reason, but it is supportable for several years. providing the oil, tex income remains roughly versus today all in europe and commission, vice president joseph borrow continues to insist, the sanctions against russia all working. but as we said at the beginning of the program it's, it's nearly 2 years now since the green war began and the sanctions what were

introduced shortly after i'm all the working is, is joseph burl weiss. well, jim, they are working, as we all know from historical accuracy, the sanctions do not work like over not it takes some of the time to start making their way. uh, but what i'm seeing is that financial sanctions of russia are really working. rashaw has big problems getting hold of hot currency. they have trading problems, they have inflation with him, him costs. and actually what we've just seen in our search is that, and this has not been a very much, much unnoticed, but actually a rush of input watch off to so called critical list goods sort of most the 51 most of work critical goods has declined by 60 percent since december 2022. so trapped to december 22 was kind of the peak of uh

the rushes impulse both totaling boats. and what critical impulse have been more or less? definitely made sense. uh, december, 1 year ago, to what we see in the long term. i think world economies debris, that's the long term picture for, for the restaurant is not the ro see, they have basically a long term 0 percent growth. gpc stay lower than it was 10 years ago. there was a kind of decline in populations autonomy scales with migration of crossing. but actually, even in the short term, we'll see now. what do you, i masters actually kind of documenting is not economic growth. is spending growth, so basically what russia is doing, they're taking money for the pension funds. they probably fall off to their pensions, bonds, and have transferring that to public spending on security. and this is not, has nothing to do with reload, panicked like what nomic growth just not sustainable. this is not something that

would drive the economy 220202526. that's federal. this is a very short term, more or less budgetary. uh, phenomenon and it has nothing to do be a economic growth at all. the sanctions were intended to undermine russia's ability to, to fund this will in you create, are they doing that? the cost of the russian military production has increased huge sale. i'm competing the west when it comes to the production of alternative shelves, for example, which is critical. but i think it's also worth noting that when it comes to regime change or even changing critical regime, policies, uh, sanctions of a list never worked. you a regular long list of them and getting all the way back to cuba and i for more than 60 years and they have not succeeded. but the differences that's in those

cases, they did do great damage to the economies concerned the wrong way. and so on, where is, in the case of russia, they haven't done that. i think there, there are other things to be noted here. the 1st is, of course, the economy over the past generation. the world economy has become very different. a china is now in economic super, as long as it is willing to go on buying russian energy and trading with russia, i'm supplying russia with various critical products. and as long as india will say that they choose to grow and economy is willing to do that, the west ability to strangle the russian economy is colossally reduced. unless of course, it were actually to impose enabled ok, don't rush or the that would be an act of will. the other thing i thing to note is that uh, what's happening in russia is being cold,

military kaden's in this. if the colds in certain respects the put them in america, which ended the great depression, that the, the 19 such as, as a result of colossally increase military spending. i mean that's, it is a viable way of boosting industrial economy. this will cause you've got the results is from the sale of oil and gas to do that. the long term question, i think, and this is something that russian, i'm of the so rice, me a bunch of great deal now is whether this can be turned into a sustainable state program of industrial development in other fields when the war ends. if it ever does not cost for that we, we, we don't know whether this will be possible, but since so many western predictions have proved fools predictions, or shall we say hoops? i think it would be a mistake simply to, to assume a probably all right, that russia cannot do that. chris,

what do you make of what i that's all the saying that did you agree that but the sanctions for almost a never working on. and if they, they don't, well, what should the west of done to it? brush this capability to fund it's a ministry industrial complex and it's more against ukraine. yeah, i could just give me just go back to uh, one step uh, just to, to, to uh, adds to a comments was made in earlier. russia is not funding the military spending the, the, but just out of savings. it's, it's, it's running the bunch of depths, it's only about one percent last year, less than one percent this year. the critical element for the budget is the level of oil, a gas as a commodity exports, and they're holding up quite well. so it's not the case that you know, rushes bernie to it's, it's stock pile of money and is going to end up in there. and it a difficult situation. it within the next couple of years they, they were,

the financial reserves are more or less staying intact. and rushes actually running down the steps. so it's financial position right now, which is critically dependent on the export volumes for sure. is remaining in quite a comfortable position. but it, and that's your question about sanctions almost never worked well. the films never work it in to, to deliver on what was the declared intention. in this case, the declared intention was to force russia into a difficult economic situation. so that it would force to cramming into rethinking its actions in ukraine had to stop and get sanctions that are granted. terry that, that hasn't happened. and the reason that it hasn't happened is because russia is such an important uh, export or a supplier of, of hydrocarbons and other materials which are in high demand in places like china and india and other asian markets. and there's no sign of that, let,

letting up rush, it is offering it reduced discounts now compared to what it was offering or had to offer in the 1st half of last year. now the discounts are much smaller and it has to built up this shadow fleets. and other ways of getting the, the products to the asian customers and to be paid for it. so, to that extent, yeah, for sure. yeah. russia is not in the comfortable position of being able to diversify the economy and to grow and to handle all of the demographic issues that it was talking about before this conflict. but it isn't a comfortable position into that. i can pay its bills and funds, the budget's kind of requirements that it's no facing. and then one final point is in terms of the future. uh, you know, clearly the situation remains that it is today. russia will slip more in board, the stagnation to the economy would become even more dependent on military industrial complex. the narrative in bosco, of course, is to,

that's not going to happen. and they are looking at cooperation with this expanded bricks plus formats, which of course was added to it, other countries from january this year. and for the intention of russia and based on china, is to bring even more country's interest in the next couple of years. and to use that formats as low terms of if you liked as of what was a previous dependency and engagement with western nations. it's far too early to say that that would work or how long it would take to work. but there is a way forward that at least has been discussed, which is got some options. but meantime, the critical factor for us. yeah, absolutely is. what are the level of the budget receives from oil exports that's critical all and your pin on us companies in the entire nation. so have undermining the sanctions regime by so convincing them. and if so, what can be done to better enforce a sanctions regime?

once it's put into place, and so age are, what we found in our research is yes, your opinion and restaurant also us companies are supplementing sanctions of commodities. so sanctions of the export goods to russia, those goods will usually kind of find a way via so come praise be up to are, can you your customer sign all the countries and they were basically find a way to russia, but uh, what is working here are actually, the financial searches. so what do i see is that russia just made up of war and intensive war a drastically reduce their imports. also what credit to goods of the critically steps. they have been more than a soft sims one year ago, and we think the reason for that is because russia is having issues with hawk currency or earning more unless they have

a lower exports gas. prices has been decimated, to only face divorce. it was a year ago and we see this kind of a decline in rush us. that'd be live t, twinkle. so regardless of a 2 bed, which degree commodity sanctions york, we think that we have to look at to come on to, to sanctions in conjunction with the financial sanctions. i'm be see financial sanctions, the dollar sanction to your sanction. probably working quite well to reduce russia's abilities. so i kind of, i think bill as great as kind of rushes, long term economic development has been very bleak, a very a batch. but even in the short term, also the spending spree that we see up into little action in, in the, in the months we've been in progress see much clearer, the erosion of russian predictive capacity below that kind of budget. are we

stopped officially set the surface that receipt unfolding now. okay. um i see chris shaking his head and that's all i know i'll, i'll come back to you in just a 2nd. let me just give chris a, a moment to come in. yeah, every time i've read this in a few places of see the expectations of rushes deliberately, kind of rubbing the economy with high levels of spending, all of which is going to come to an end after the election. and i just don't see that, you know, the, one of the reasons why the economy has performed quite very well. it'd be like relatively well last year continues. is because of the effectiveness of the stage institutions of the management of the economy. you end up being race would be transparent and we can cross that the referenced asia with, with importers such as china and india, et cetera. so we just don't see that there is a cliff, you know, terms of spending rescue, for example, the last year made

a 140000000000 of trade surplus of almost 80000000000 of current account surface and, and the current wave price. there's no reason why that won't be repeated through this year. so we do not see a reduction in spending. we'd see it, but more even, it'd be like this for the year or less the or price collapses. okay. out of so if sanctions almost never will cause you said in your last on, so why, why, why are they, are they still used of what impact do they have upon the economies of countries that impose them? i'm thinking specifically here of germany, that is the critical question. we just started with the united states and it's a progressively become a kind of declarative policy, especially on the pots with us congress. it's a way that the congress has signaled its displeasure rang with a range of countries around the world by the fee amount of time and reasons, or because they all against america will

a combination of but it's so it's, and of course it's also the alternative to war if, for whatever reason, you feel that you can kind of out, as you would having the cost invaded feminist way to replace the governments that, that you impose sanctions on the same thing with iran. same thing with russia. if you're not prepared to fight to try to do it by economic needs. now, if this, as i've said, was the equivalent of the british blockade of germany and the 1st and 2nd was, was a couple of old german maritime trade. then it would look a box, of course we're not prepared to go the not test because it would be an act of war against russia. no, just because it wouldn't feel react the chinese. but it would also infuriate the critical western pop is like india was. so depends on westward. so this is a policy which has become reflexive of, well, to magic. i mean, the congress often appears to be unable to find the type of this. it's not

necessarily a policy that has been seriously in system much increased so time. uh . so uh yeah, i mean i, i think that this is something to be reconsidered and it goes on drum and you're absolutely right. it's, it's like, you know, the store, you, you don't have to run faster than the lot and you just have to run faster than me and rusher. is doing so much special in germany. and it is a serious question that we so much laurie talking germany of the industrialization, the collapse of the german industrial economy. whether in fact politically, germany can sustain its existing goals, including bathroom sanctions against russia. a few minutes left. i want to get a couple more questions and chris to you 1st. to what extent is it the ordinary people of russia, who bearing the brunt of of the west sanctions against the country?

as far as the political support for the president puts in, has as it strengthened to of but look because there's no obvious impact on people right now. i mean, i mean that out of russia a lot, i see the stores are full of the mechanisms to, for, for people to buy goods online from se, fashion upsets that have left russia are all fully available there. there's no and, you know, look at the streets of moscow, it's not only that they're full of chinese cars, but they're a brand new asian and your pink cars come into a pilot in the parts of it. so there's a, as of now there is no kind of abuse, a negative impact or any major impact on russians other than those who want to travel. it is charity, a lot more expensive to put for russians to travel outside russia. and it's more difficult to go to go to most places except down to the middle east. but for me to be josh impressions, i would say no, they haven't really noticed any, any,

any impact on their lifestyle. other than perhaps there's more goods with made in china labeled on them that may be made in, in germany. that was, was the case in terms of support for, for the president. but, you know, the russians historically support the state where, especially when there's time of trouble, as i say. and, you know, the narrative in russian media is that russia is under attack by nation, by the west of ukraine is simply being used as the depaul in an, in the middle of rushes is fighting against nature. so people support the states and are quite nationalistic in, in, in that sense, to that extent, present putin as the president gets the support by, by default. but i don't see at this stage any reason to assume that there would be any public protests that although it is worth mentioning, that there is concern about a possible next round of globalization. we are beginning to see some push back against that. so the comfortable need to be careful not to make a misstep on mobilization as a date in september of 2022. but apart from that,

i would have to say to situation in norma in washington, eggs is, is actually quite stable all and we've talked a lot of the program about commodity and financial sanctions designed to bring about political change. um, is there any evidence to suggest that the functions also work as a tool for bringing about a positive change as far as human rights are concerned as well, it gets deeper suddenly and so that's for go. it's a go as, who is the kids, but a sanction convert to a very large should we so for example, i racked, they probably had too much effect um, or kind of a chip down. uh, but uh all our search uh shows that the sanctions of russia are really working quite a lot for us as i touched upon the dollar and euro sanctions, the financial sanctions reduced our ability to import. that's

a trade costs rise so that the costs or the costs of the impulse cost of technology . i'm a product, but i disagree with the uh, price uh as of to the book notes on, on the order in the russian citizens they will pay a very high price for the. ringback first of all, costs the conscription award so, but if you go outside of last go, you would see people dying from cold because of that. so lack of heating and i was transferred to you. you'll see people's interest rates on loans. i've really increased the inflation has increased a lot and even petrol in the country like russia, prices as increase. i lost there was a lot of disturbance markets or mechanism that actually uh, i think when did it, public spending spree is over asked of elections went social monday through the sausage spending these kind of relaxed again. yeah. you're going to see i cannot make cop problems coming to the forefront not only for or that. we're almost out of

time out just by christmas shaking his head. that course i'd look up in about 30 seconds that i wanted to get out of totally, i'm sorry, and that's all i might not get back to you but, but chris chris quickly for 3 points. first of a lot of people do not see a spending deteriorating after the election. we do that, do not see any basis for that whatsoever. secondly, is 85 percent of russia's trade is. now, conductors encourages or breaks countries, which includes the you, a 0, a as a, as, as well as the chinese one. so yes, it is most substantially away from our daughter and you're starting is i was actually as in the regions last week, i do not for the people that i just think it's normal. quick things like the news doesn't wait for anyone, and that's coming up next. i told just just briefly yes, i mean actually just being a great re distribution of money to the russian provinces of that doing much better than the industrials and, and uh, no, i mean the, the will,

will continue and spending on the industrial economy will continue after the elections, this is not a political business for the account. okay. just a boy or a gentleman that we must end it, but he thinks indeed too old for taking punch in the program. today. chris, we the on build sites and out of the whole leaving as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going into the website without a 0 talk. com. for further discussion on this topic, join us on facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash h a inside story, and you can join the conversation on x on handle the asia inside story from the adrian. so they get into the team here in doha. let's see you again, bye. for now the the georgia, the all just there,

let's bring you to the united nations headquarters in new york for the security council is in session discussing israel is wong kaiser re, i'd, ma'am. so the policy number of the is speaking, is listening religion and it may just concentrate on the 6 probably do not imagine adopted. do not be model roy this, that in the king. even the judge of is that i voted in favor of these 2 probably didn't have much great it to study it and really to, to know what's in it. not what the illusions in the minds of some of what was not in it. it is crystal clear that imagine that imagine adopted by the court of binding and it must comply with them mister president. but then president story

photo, why now everybody has recognized that is the cause, committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. whether they use these wards or not through it's massive, indiscriminate bombing with no power in modern history. the photo submittal displacement of the population, the mass out a bit to that a, a bit to the as the somebody execution including women and children raising the light flag, having a death squad stalled a hospital in janine disguised as civilians as patients, as medical person. um, as it displays this, this a bill bets him as a mother holding a baby to execute 3 men,

including a wounded, partially paralyzed mind receiving treatment. if anybody thinks that such behavior is acceptable under any circumstances as then we are throwing away the bulk and the protection it provides to or is it a config, then it's impunity when it's done has led a war about the cities against the palestinian people in the gaza strip for 4 months. now. this must, since mister president, wisconsin and the court have called for protection of civilians instead is thought of getting them.