on the go and meet tonight, i'll just there is only mobile app is that the, this is where we dissect from out is there is a mobile app available in your favorite top to just set for it and typed on a new app from out to 0 new at you think, is it the returned the ocean and recriminations? israel has went up, it strikes on his bike killing civilians and let them know of those that the group says won't go unpunished. combines with a war on does that? could this exchange escalates into the regional conflicts? this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian instead of getting the, as really ministry has been exchanging fine with the lebanese group has by almost daily since october 7th, as well. it says that it's in solidarity, but it's outlined garza from us and that it will continue as long as as well on bonds. the strip at least 200 fighters and 13 soldiers have been killed. but this week is ready, strikes killed, 10 civilians, including children and southern lebanon. his father has promised to retaliate, lebanon submitted a complaint to the un security council, both sides, se, then, not looking for all out war, but increasing 3 attacks are happening far beyond the border area. so what does each policy want to achieve? and how likely is original conflict will explode of this without guests in just a moment. but 1st, this report, by my life i'll be able to separate since is, are launched. it's will and cause a full months ago. the armies exchanges with resistance movements in the region have escalated. the conflict between these riley ministry and hezbollah,

the lebanon bold has slid as the group pitch solitary sea, with how much against is really aggression. they have been near daily exchanges a fight since october. the 7th had this wednesday was the most of the tile, 3 hezbollah fighters and the cheese 10 civilians. we killed in southern living on the groups lead a promised israel would pay for the general. why? no, not of us. we'll fight again. southern never known with our eyes on garza, when the aggression stops against gauze. and when the shooting stops in garza, you will stop the shooting in the self of this is the next day has been notified rockets towards northern israel. however, it is rarely defense minister. you of garland says, the country is not looking for full scale conflict element in the, on the plane instead of flying and living on sky as we speak of targets. and they know to attack them and how they've changed their attack from one place to another . we could do a copy paste from garza to bay roads, but we don't want to go there as well, would pay

a heavy price and it would be catastrophic to live in on. and his beloved for types of techs have displaced the keys to 85000 people on both sides of the boat to those left behind say they live in constant fear of a strikes every day. they say at least they cannot be trusted. and that no one is safe near them, the targeting civilians to them. there is no difference between military personnel, children and adults. the, we heard a loud explosion, but didn't know exactly what happened. i thought maybe rockets were launched from here. but then when the ambulances started arriving with you, they had been a strong. these riley ministry has been accused of using what fost for us as a weapon, and act that's testified as a whole crime. it has also stepped up a text on has been the operation sites and carried out targeted killings of hezbollah and how much lead is far from the battlefield raising fee is that the $1.00 garza and best tools on the live and in boulder will lead to larger regional

conflict. yeah, well i haven't much a bit of a 0 for inside story. the, let's bring it, i guess for today's discussion from london, we're joined by gilbert as ca, who's a professor of development studies and international relations at the university of london. the school of oriental and african studies from fe routes were joined by how a job up award winning journalist and also of his bowler bone with a vengeance from brussels. we're joined by elijah, might be a who's a ministry of security analyst is covered conflicts in the, at least including living in for more than 35 years. a full welcome to you. oh, eliza, let's start with you. just how dangerous a moment is this for the region, despite all policy saying that they don't want one. could we see israel and his ball a, a war again, it seems to be dangerous because the middle east is dealing with is really prime minister for why is the whole thing to hasty wants to remain impala and is that

um, and even that the call dining oh, those guys, the pin a dock rock syria, what ever keeps him at school to justify who's pregnant and to dismiss and natalie election in asia. and he's going to enlarge the war as long as he can and as much as he can. and this is why he's breaking the rules of engagement 11 now. and he is trying to provoke a lot into a larger country. knowing that has one that wants to establish the veterans. and he is the. yeah, despite all these that tend to commit all these bombardments and commit crimes against civilians he is insisting and continuing to bombard lynch on that and on and about how or insisting that the war on guys that that is the key of the

solution and the trouble of everything and everybody's today, how do you agree that this is a particularly dangerous moment for the region? how likely is it but it could escalate? yes, absolutely. i think we are now at the junction where we, we refer to as always, states as a tipping point, because that's where we are. we are looking for. if you had off this, this is on the go 2 months ago. it wasn't as, as it is now, at both sides. we know and see we do not one before. both sides are not one to wage lost a war on each other. both sides however, have red lines. the, the, it has one lot or is what i'm and the escalations. and the last, the escalation, specially from it started in the last week is quite const considerable and it backs the question as to what they want to achieve from this. do they want that full single they trunk force has been locked into a large scale or however, has one last thing it lies or she wants. and if we look at both sides,

we see the test bullet continues to talk. it's ministry ma installations or ministry targets, whereas in the case of israel is what it is actually and provoking has been led by targeting civilian targets. like we've seen the last 3 days that were mothers and children and families that were actually can. so um, even though the, they, they, he doesn't want to war but like, and i just said it is anthony. i was impressed at the moment to continue in a state of war because as long as he is, he will not be ousted and he will not be facing the criminal charges that he has to face later. so he wants to stay on the seat with like, and i to also said this is the risk of burning the speech and, and, and blowing it out may be out of control. bye bye, bye bye. triggering reached out to for gilbert escrow professor. as you heard that both sides insist that they don't want a war. his bar, however,

has vowed to retaliate. for wednesdays strikes this week, is there a danger that the situation could accidentally escalate? and i think it to be difficult to, to speak to fax it that is uh, give it in the extreme state of preparation. i know where i am this of both sides and they have both own means of self control. uh, there are some groups other than local rates from what it sounds like. somebody seeing groups in to the through the unless it says, but uh they are also under control. my husband. uh so i don't think that it is. i mean, any escalation would be just a matter of accident. if, if it happens, it would be something i would say, the quite deliberate and on these or i decide not on that has the left side. i'm. i mean, when you say both sides don't for, don't want to, to need to lower still lower. i don't think this is

a good for both sides. i'm pretty sure the principal does not want to to get into a large scale or otherwise they would have done that from the beginning in october . and at the moment when you know the forces of time as well as the intact and the that could have been a joint or both. how much the past below, which was what time is actually wished for at that moment. but the left button and after the experience of 2006, i mean has the, is, is quite where we offer a new episode of distraction in the country living and as of today become the, you know, it's on the verge of this. it's an abyss with a condition economically, and that's why i'm from the business side as beloved. doesn't have any incentive and enlarging though i can't say the same also of but isn't right. is what it has

been for for quite long explaining that the day will come when day we'd have to set an account with as much locks. they come to the rate what they regard as some kind of advance possible position of the you're on the, on their laws are in boulder. that's how they look up has the law and, and the, you know, uh, less always. so before it goes before october, 7th, less. oh is the, the present, the ministry of this for the defense, social defense for peters are right. you are the man a threatening to, to turn the, to the back to the stone age. uh, when he was visiting the border area and so some positions of life plus the for the electric picking up on, on what he was saying a few minutes ago about the prime minister netanyahu is perhaps a conflict in the most of, of israel and the south of,

of level with level under as a whole. uh, perhaps part of a strategy surrounding exiting garza on the main line for the for your why and for human face to make sure that the attention of the what is known as diabetic takes away all the different a senior course and know shifting from the idea not 15 the attention from what's happening in guns and all the crimes against humanity and will crimes and content of juice i again state but a senior people that is a right not, not a box from the people in the south of that and then have accepted to engage and this will where has a lot doesn't have really limits of sacrifice is because 1st if it's ryan is not stop, then the next button is on never. secondly, there is

a link between the palestinians and they live in a boat off. i'm paying adjust schools against injustice because they're also better treat 11 on the i'll be by, by these raise for the test. the law is worthy to intensify the bombardment equally all the less because we're talking about an all state that says a classic, an army that is due to the one of the strongest in the middle east. well that was the narrative before the 7th of october, but the senior resistance obviously has broke. they smell and, and because of that is ryan has have power of destruction. but again, as well, i also has about disruptions and it hasn't used all these weapons yet. so at the moment they took containment, even if the some violation from time to time. but what's going to happen next and why all they put

a scene in going to be pushed for another extra those. this is where the tension one way it gave me on the boat is with laughter and on the man and the new rock when they would contribute to the heck is right. because if it is doing is would not be left to know us. alright, and i'll come to you in just a moment, but i just want to bring gilbert in. just just remember that i didn't, i'll take you at the question particularly well when i put it to elijah. but do you think that a conflict in, in the north of israel, in southern lebanon, could be part of it is really strategy surrounding exiting, gaza. somehow it was the, the leading can use in the, in the fact that the is around a wanted to avoid a conducting door on both fronts. green the, the intensity of destruction in inc. does, is, is unprecedented as i believe on the now a notice. and that would, that would not have been possible without direct us in dollars, but this is the 1st joint us is riley was in fact the 1st floor which uh,

did united states completely, uh, uh, take spot in uh, approves the it schools, uh and organize them in a bridge without which is right and would not have been able to do that. but no, i mean they, so they were at busy destroying gas, which should they said the, the, the, the end of the year 23. as a deadline for the intensive, most intensive phase of bombing, and as soon as that ended, so from the 2nd, they'll generally they started the escalation on the east side with the city nation of the solid. and not only who is of course, i'm actually good about who, who lived in the, in the midst of the area controlled by as well and level. and we had a series of such escalation starting from, from that point. so very clearly from the beginning of that to

a is what is considered that since it intensive them, being of guys is over as a phase and they move to to what they call a lower intensity war. there they, they, they can strengthen 11. i'm with the, with the repeating what they did. think of that. that's exactly what they are doing every day. they are the threatening of don't include it, but the trouble is as they didn't cost. okay, how about do you want to come back on that before i put a direct question to you? yes, i think they are intensifying across the border with lebanon. however, i don't think yet they've started to and then i to the point of reducing the troubling what they've done and god, can they do that in the future? yes, absolutely. they have the power with the, you know, they, they, they have the, the, they have, the will play is where level and doesn't talk about club on as him that of these all me or has been lives in the resistance has been law and the non state act or, or the many army so they can inflict damage and would that 11 and would prefer

not to go to that, not to see it damaged. obviously the sword like 2006 if itself comes of course they went. and the fact of the matter is that for the loved knew so many lebanese as much as they would pay back. and they're not looking for the back. they've been, they've done that, but to show us where it starts to still cost about that. whereas an, as well as well, it's never been to huge bombardments and they, we got back from her as well as well as able to reach and quite deep into is where it has never used that yet because it's always trying to be restrained. but if, if, if need be, if, if, if it isn't decides to to, and as you know, quote unquote the rhetoric that you was into, you know, the, the stone age. well, yes, 11 and can also or has been like an ortho and fix, massive damages across is went across the cues that have never seen more in their life. and they would be huge that impacted by it. so, um, i think, i think, as well as, as was intent as always, to come back to, to lebanon and has been finalized, or they think they would find them as that's the last 4. but i don't think they're

ready when i say ready. i don't think they want to do it at the same time as the war and gaza is going. so i think that this escalation, it's, it's still within a certain geographic. it's been within certain rules of, of engagement. they both seem to understand both when and course that the law says they're allowing for these losses, but they don't want to go beyond for the time being this not to say that the wouldn't go beyond later a lebanon is not his father. his father is not 11, and what are the dangers for his folder here in terms of public opinion in lebanon, if the country is somehow dragged into, into a conflict with, with his right again and targets in a route, for example, of being hit. why do we are expecting this time from again, from the resort that they spent the beginning, but this is what they would do. and they utilize that rhetoric in order to pressure the us government tools, found a guest or for the population to spec, to look that it's no secret and not been on. you know, there are 2 sides of this equation. there's one side that's totally and rejects,

rejects this, even even what's going on now rejects the idea, the jumping in should be driving for the sort. well that has, well i for that matter, is fighting to support the, the system, the as. but then you have another sector which is a huge sector, which are, you know, and we're not just talking about the types of and use or, or those on the software, but also in includes a large sector from the, from, from the noise and from, from the east and from the, from the fission side, that's ok. if you want allies or an alliance and they accept, but this might happen and they will take the brunt of, it's not fatal. it's yes they would, we be. that's what they said that they would have thought they would. i think so. you have my son in law. i think um, he responded to the doctor a few days ago when he had, when he made that last statement. and he said, you know, if, if they were pushed and for such a will, where do you have to go into war bank or, or um, you know, or, or these rules or the specials would have to be set aside. and he would go into

this works without actually, um, not without considering anything, but he will do it because he thinks that's the right thing. cuz i've been, i'm usually in this, in the space. there's always sort of mazda will start to do a dryly. you put your defenses aside and you around the, around your, your, your, your other uh, you know, the people that are being hit or, or whether we're, if, and they will discuss the political disagreements later on if the war is not showing up. and it's not like, i mean, anyone can stop what's coming and no one can stop the fact the club in an event has been law will have to defend at yes, you say uh, a lot of smoke leveling and loving them as much as well. i know, but there's a lot sector 11 under this has been a lot in the last sector. spell out that there's nothing up. so and it is a non states act or in the but, but that's also we need to be very cute. it's because the muse army has never ever been involved to be recognized as well as, as well in order to defend the country. and this has nothing, no disrespect to the peace army. but the fact of the matter remains that the united

states and these big powers have refused projected unblock any attempt to on bill of his army to such a point where it can actually take on is what if needs be, this has not happened. so the resistance such as has been a lot and others have, have, have blown into this, and it's become their job to do that. hello. let's move on. i have to elijah, do is rails ongoing strikes and southern lebanon amount to war crimes? it's, yes, it is. because it set that against civilians, but particularly when it's ready to talk to the last time in the to you just a couple of days ago. this is a direct attack against opinions and is a she ampro vacations to hezbollah, to in dollar deductible, has one that is extremely sensitive to the assassination of the king or the target kidding of civilians. because these are really nice and especially drowned with

hans because if to talk it's particular to bachman with a family that is a crime against humanity because what they thought living civilian also age right. as being in discriminatory, destroying many houses in the south government on banning the so that they also knew key all that a moms to crime. that is right, is a custom to, this is not something you when you see what they are doing, engage them what they have done in the last 5 rolls and does, and the 2611 because they are an accountable, they can do that and i would love to add one other point that dangerous thought a, the army troops on the liberties for this. and there are these really gathering mobile sol says it has one loud response policy as right, the has the right to be kind of get to these really because they are bothering

because they are targeting the civilians. what happens if these rubies lose $20.00 to $30.00? so it is with one of the big rocky top heads for law. this is a way, i think that on the kind of today to get a spin over to a lot of war. so we walking really on the edge of the face with the determination alternate then you know, to remain in power improvement. keep the beloved by saying, well, no, i saw any civilians not and the other another to you. as you write, the also suggests, is it good? go to be rude, and this is where the war can be in the go. but does it un peacekeeping force on the ground in southern lebanon? what's it doing at this time? of hyphen tension? i mean, if it comp keep the piece what, what does is roll the well, yeah, i mean, oh listen, i mean then the face of what is happening. they are just the watching and the reporting. this is not the force that has been able to, to, to,

to take action for wrong. and besides the one of the issues that are on the table now and didn't make your cations led by uh, washington the one hand and thought it some, the other, it was in regard to live and on. the one of the question is the, the future of felt this you in force and especially the deployment of the news army, which they would regard as a, a lower important then then just the, the keeping the so you enforce the doing the job security council resolution 17, a one. what does all this mean for that? with that said, that's the resolution that was i looked at the end, the week of the 2006 is riley war 11 on and on as well. uh and uh that include the, the, with the role of, of the,

of the bullet force is north of the town here that are, which is something like a $25.00. so it'd be kilometers from the north of the, off the border. and the claim, without anybody's army, and the united nations forces in that, in that area. but since then this, this agreement as a kind of last, it's a, it's a reality and is a right on the one side has been a system. if it's going to be violating this, i believe was by late thing going since the but, and he's s base and, and taking every kind of actions. and therefore, as the forces have done back and re deployed in the area. and that has led to this uh, explanation between the, between the 2 sites as the, as i mentioned,

the is riley defense minister, last august, visiting the border had the made the threat that i mention these threats are being made. but we know that is, will know, is also preparing for the 3rd lead. they are taking every kinds of measures for a possible action only by them. i think the key point that the is now holding them back is uh the, the fact that the, with the increasing pressure that you have international, the, especially on the issue of stuff on the invasion the of the front. that is right. and it is a voice to, to, to, to do the, it's, that's wouldn't be the moment for, is it right. and, you know, to, to engage and to another war that's within to have the approval of the piece flushing. so that's the key point here. and i mean that being talks about that,

then you know who, but i think that the whole, right, and these are in really much bidding on a come back of the don't have trump to the presidency of the united states. and that would create for them. the idea is condition they would be the into, in engaging in to a much larger world. that's what i mean, including striking out the wrong last problem. i'm so i'm sorry if it went very time to time, i tried what to put one more question to you. what would be the implications of an escalation for the wider region? then you mentioned that ronald of the earlier what other policies be be drawn in if so who, how for tank protracted or otherwise would, would have an escalation be, who would, when and uh, the resistance always weighs and the whole to buy is always defeated. however, the damages in every will not be coming to a very critical situation where people are nice to retaliate against the kidding,

but this is another to get in that can get a and something the cars will load not be left to go. where again, they may the german and can be brought, it want can join in it. why join and, and yemen. what was going to win festival of the senior people over on the back the k. because on the was saying, 2nd of these royalties, news in the on c, j is on monday, and is there a crown of motor on the head and on anyone? so was this central or was concerned that you didn't know about? do these really and to all, does it support those, even if they are supported by a super far like the united states and all this find this european community that is not taking any measure against injury. so at the end of the day yet, so when you end up paying the price that the cause is much bigger, the causal by this time the bigger than god is bigger than it happened on

a why. yeah, man and you, right. and the we must and many thanks indeed to you. oh, allies your mind, me a holler job and i go but as calm as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website which is of l. g. 0, don't com. for further discussion, you're welcome to join us on our facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can join the conversation on x or handle the page right inside story from me every, instead of going at the same here and go home. i'll see you again. the a settled time upfront takes on the big issue that is of posted to what is happening now. it to the question about 5 unflinching questions, rigorous the bank that he added to 2 days that another cleansing is taking place. augusta. nothing goes into garza without us, we'll permit,

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