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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  February 17, 2024 2:30am-3:01am AST

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this, the side village is not only a servers, paradise, those who follow crypto currencies closely. know it better and spit point, be the queen david, queen bee. the queen beat me, call me it'd be, it'd be, it's bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin right. from a tourism perspective, we know how to tell her to her as a part. we know who's the surfer and we know who's a bit cleaner. salvador, this doherty's say big queen has been a net positive for tourism since it was made a national currency in 2021. what is the grocery going, salvador and president nigi book kelly, who was recently elected to a 2nd term is betting big on using bitcoin as a tool for development. part of that plan includes a new law that grants expedited citizenship to foreigners who choose to invest in the country using bitcoin. there's a remarkable transition going on here to nomic least you know, i just, uh, in terms of the sentiments. so john is from canada,
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and as of january of this year, he's also a bona fide citizen of el salvador. i, i decided that i really want to be part of what's happening here in support. i'm all in the there's clearly enthusiasm for bead quite here. with love is not universal. critics say there's a lack of transparency altogether when it comes to matters of bitcoin and the government to come back, even though it has become a black hole for public fine on everything that has been used for bit calling with tex, spare money becomes lost without a trace some argue that big problem is related to big coin have yet to materialize . like construction of a mega project, the big coin cities from powered by geothermal energy, from an active volcano. more than 2 years after the adoption of the currency, the use of bitcoin, among the majority of salvadorans, is low, most still preferred to use paper money. there's also warnings from the
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international monetary fund over the volatility of crypto currencies and the risk of adopting one as legal tender. but despite all this el salvatore's between experiment continues to attract attention. whether or not el salvatore's bitcoin gamble is paying off for the nation's economy is debatable. one thing that is certain is that between beach has become a haven for crypto currency, and susie is from around the world. the civil salvador is not the only country which offers a citizenship by investment scheme. it may be the only one that currently accepts bitcoin for surf lessons. by the way, that up a little al jazeera el salvador is serv city. and that does it from me for this hour. the news continues here, analysis 0 after counting the cost, the president biden says $1.00 to $2.00 state solution for palestinians and israelis
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with this. anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for? i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? a quizzical look at us politics, the bottom line, the alarm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you'll ricky, look at the world of business and economics. this rate is rails for us to have a credit rating downgrade, and a negative outlook for the economy to go on casa is straining the nation's finance . most of this week, commercial real estate in the us as faltering them folding crisis. this isn't regional banks as far away as japan and germany plus nations across the world of
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testing a full day work week. that doesn't really increase productivity and improve work life balance. the massive ministry, spending a drop in revenues and the depleted workforce. israel is borrowing heavily to fund it. will on garza and it's now and tractor $11.00 of it's white is the budget deficits this century. worried about the fiscal and political risks. moody's as low as it was credit racing for the 1st time. now that will likely make it more expensive for the nation to borrow money. the agencies also full cost of negative outlook for the economy, opening the door for a further downgrade, as well as finance minister slammed the decision as a political manifesto. but is it really challenges reports from occupied east jerusalem within a stone's throw of jerusalem's old city? the jerusalem hotel, his interior 3 good times and bad since the 1940s. it's old. well,
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the palestinian chum appeals to the tourist who usually flocked to experience this ancient cities unique history. yet since october the 7th, most rooms have lain empty is cancellations, rolled in hands to monce plummeted. we immediately lost 50 percent as, as time passes, losing more hours running at 30 percent of what we used to have before and of the kind of situation continues. it might be kind of even even worse. right? it is fall from the only one to have noticed that the war is bad for business here . the last we can move to is one of the 3 international credit. racing agencies downgraded is rails credit rating from a one to 8 to now that still invested great is not junk. but it shows the strain that this voice putting on is ralph economy justifying the move, moody sites, the ongoing military conflicts with how much it's off them off and why the consequences materially res,
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political risk for israel as well as we can. it's executive and legislative institutions, and it's fiscal strength for the foreseeable future. israel has never experience writing down grades before the moodies decision was a double whammy, not just a reduced rating, but a negative outlook to which means another downgrade could be coming. is around the central bank estimates the will cost at $69000000000.00 i've 82023220. 25. borrowing is going up to the a record levels. the countries 2024 budget comes with a deficit of 6.6 percent of g. d p only the co video of 2020 was higher. still the market response sofa is being told her in the interest rate for these really bones have increased. ok, even before the rating we're going down and this is netra, but is l. um, because it's a bit industrially very, very strong country. the fundamentals themselves haven't been hurt much, far,
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right? finance. i'm gonna save bets. it out. smart, rich slammed. moody's downright is politicized. prime minister benjamin netanyahu insists is roused. credit racing will bounce back with the was and but no one knows when that will be or what will follow to a better time. some invest is like riots, tourist might choose to stay away. rolling trends, houses, era for counting the cost occupied east jerusalem. joining us not from london, danielle yankee, daniel is associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. one, welcome to dante, what do you make of this decision by movies to downgrade is really officials to say that it's not consistent with micro economical fiscal figures to the primary, the primary reasons why moody dominated the uh, these really uh, these are 80 uh ranking is due to political risks and you're wanting to cut rates, which are likely to persist even after the conflict ends up. so the fiscal
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situation is projected to be the to do it. i think uh, in fact the, the god bless the how, the, how the call to goes. so what are the, the financial repercussions of moody's decision, especially on invest as well as the investment grade. so usually you'll see a substantial increase in interest rates when, when, you know, gets, gets out of the investment straight investment, grades, and ranges. uh so certainly the borrowing costs will increase but not dramatically, but really what is lowered easiest to pronounce that if the fiscal situation, the, the, the budget, the budget is such that the setup 6.6 percent the g d p moving forward. and this is compared to a 2.5 percent the what was projected to be pre conflict. so is really the piece consideration and the increase in borrowing that worries bodies then come and, and the market street. you say that the borrowing costs are going to rise, but not dramatically, but they'll be a drag on the economy went the,
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especially if the war goes on. is israel risk of default in any way? no default, the think is a stretch. but certainly if he's got the nation, the direct uh, and then got a cost is being estimated by the bank reserve to be around 13 percent of the gdp. that's a huge cost. and it's going to definitely take control on the economy moving forward . in fact, mode is talks about persistent risks that are going to drive the economy uh well before what? even after the conflict of us we hood is really the government officials of, of, to food bodies downgrade. but all of the credit ratings agency is going to follow suit. oh, that's usually the case, but it's not like event. uh, it really depends. uh, typically does these raping agency, they have similar models, the motto. so that is the, is the, you know, the, i likely that's, that they audibly follow, but it's not necessarily given the, it's where the federation of business organization is on the tennessee based micro
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cent, for political economics of joint plate for cost of the war is going to contribute to the pleasure of what some $30000.00 small and medium sized businesses and in various sectors of do you think that's going to be increasing internal pressure on the government to, to, to sort this out to the end. this will as businesses go, boss, people lose that jobs, their incomes definitely, that wouldn't be internet price. or any fact if you look at the modest decision a lot of the political risk is, is actually what is going to be of the government up to the complex. and that's possible clear. uh, so definitely that would be into the pressure bar. you know, if you look at the pools, this seems to be that, you know, huge support from the population to devote out for the moment. so i'm not seeing to enough pressure for the foreseeable future as a key factor here. first of all, what's your end? any time soon how quickly what as well as economy recover in the past,
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it's recovered, but it's relied heavily on it's on its tech sector, but that has taken a hit of late to absolutely absolutely thought him is to be seeing how the conflict ends when the contract ends and under which single status is because there's always a chance that there's going to be escalation up north with the has the law these, what was the, you know, the, it didn't is always a non 0 trust. there's gonna be a regional conflict. so it's far from clear how the economy kind of call the ethical but, and how. so all of those are you the seventy's, which is part of the reason why mode is gave gave a down great. what are you making for language that most easiest as well it's, it's highlights of the lack of, of a long term solution to, to the war. and it specifically emphasized these ready governments rejection of diplomatic proposal spearheaded by a, by the us for dealing with the, the, off them off of the what i mean, what do you make of, of, of effective mist booties as being that political, if you like. and it's,
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and it statement i don't see that as a political statement. i see that as you know, saves me based on facts and political risk plays a huge role for the economy. i mean that's, that's so for everyone, and especially if you are in the, in a conflict. so it's not, it's not a political statement is really just stating the fact that these huge political risk, that it's going to take a full on the economy for a variety of reasons that acting on that i. and that seems to be a little way out. so i don't see that as political statement is, is just stating facts as far as i'm concerned, the countries dealing at the moment with a depletion workforce to farm workers have left us the final palestinian work is made. it's costing a heck of a lot just to keep things taking a long at the moment. the economy wise, isn't it? absolutely. if you look at the government, deb rachel, is speaking, it's 67 percent. and that was, you know, compared to 55 percent projected before. so we're really talking about 1215 percent
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of the gdc into years. so that's the huge cost and is as soon as possible, clear how that can recover from this. certainly in the short term uh, even assuming that the conflict, the conflict ends and so good to talk to you professor many thanks to be valuable for being with us on, not counting the cost. thanks for having me. well, this real sage, relentless bombing and ground operations of up ended all manner of life in gaza. the international monetary fund warmest of the palestinian economy is facing a green few chips. the organization says the economic activity and the strip has dropped 80 percent from october through december. and it's the document a terry and situation of limited deliveries and the occupied westbank is in sped eva activity that is down some 22 percent. a number of factors are contributing to this, including israel's withdrawal of what permits of the withholding of palestinian tax revenues. payroll fast food john mcdonald says that it's missed its course of the sales target for the 1st time in any 4 years. the company's blaming the decline on
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israel is war in gaza at a boy called by customers in the middle east sales growth in the region. china and india felt fall short of expectations reaching only not point 7 percent of the us brands, including starbucks and k of see it also slash the annual sales, full cost of the now the time that it may be over, but the remote workers haven't fully returned to offices buildings across the u. s . a n t, and the value of commercial real estate is fully well borrowing costs increasing. that's causing problems for landlords who rely heavily on debt. now that lenders, the banks of worried about the impact of bad loans on the balance sheets, the past week is bought, concerns of amounting losses on lending to the commercial property. set up a revived memories of last year's banking crisis. when 3 american regional lenders collapsed. but how much of banks in other countries, a risk?
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let's explain it all in the us, banks have approximately $2.00 trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans out . according to goldman sachs, small and mid sized banks are responsible for around 80 percent of these loans. analysts say that building $2.00 trillion dollars of the debt is due to mature in the next 5 years. and that's raising concerns about the banks ability to recruit funds. so last week, new york community bank cool reported a unexpected loss of $252000000.00 in the 4th quarter. that's a significant downtown from its performance in 2022. but the crisis isn't confined just to the us banks in japan and switzerland a feeling the strain. well, real estate land up p d b in germany says that it's preparing for the most severe dropping commercial property values. in 15 years. the situation embarrassed the 2008 financial crisis
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and there are concerns, but it could spiral out of control. but us officials say the problem is manageable and i hope and believe it will not end up being a systemic risk because of the banking system. the exposure of the largest banks is, is quite low, but there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments. joining us not from london, which i think i'll richard, is a senior investment analyst avalon, the based financial institution ambrose, the capital. good time you with this richard. so are we in a crisis or not? right now, almost a year ago, we saw the collapse of s b, b is, is this a different situation? it is much different. the regulators have been much cover of the past year and it's regarding the medium sized bank, if you'd call them new york commercial bank. this service go back to the medium sized bank with assets all over 100 billions. and this is one of the reasons for the crisis of confidence and assets to take measures to sharp is capital. and that
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helps to split the investors along with the unexpected loss. but i would say that while we need to monitor the exposures of commercial banks to commercial real estate, particularly in the large cities, we're not nearly a point where we should be protecting a crisis dressing yet certainly nothing like last year. okay, but is it a problem with a short term fix or is this something that's going to keep bubbling away, nagging away for some time, yet it will continue powerfully because the us banking system is already on consolidated. there are course, the top 4 or 5 banks which dominate the country system. but there are literally hundreds of large regional community bank spread trapped ignited states where americans on the role just because of the nature of the banking bottles, their assets being very large relative to the capital. and that's a confidence crisis occurred as the deposits if we write quickly by today,
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i think the regulators have done a good job of preventing wide scale panic, which could have happened after the so what kind of belly bank crisis of last year with shop quite on timely and started with the credit suisse prices. yeah. as you say, well banking these days. i mean it is, it's banking is a global affair that they're all interconnected. as we said, there are banks in japan, in switzerland, in germany. that, that of that of feeling the strain but you, you say that there's no risk of contagion. you don't think this isn't that apply to control a reckless. this is one of the blessings on disguise. if we could say this about the troubles for the new york bank and that it's wild very large, it's very heavily connected to the new york police on market. but it's not very involved in the also bias market and it's not connected to naturally or internationally. by contrast to the bank, such as bank of america is a very broad natural presence because have brought it to
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a natural presence. so if there were this type of unexpected loss of more significant rise and expectations of all the losses that a for just internet internationally connected. i think we would have to be very, we're not in this case, at least not yet. or i do interest rates, play any pos and, and what, and what's happening right now to some extent finance much different last year, the affective interest rates for us to cause bosses on the polio. and bank such as silicon valley bank or s b b, or as at present it is more of a traditional impact of rising interest rates. meaning it's more difficult for the buyers to a back of loans. but i would also stress that data losses on n y, c, b colors have been quite small. by contrast, the warning about the possibility of large choices in the future should investors be worried about about what's happening right now. i don't think trust yet,
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largely because the market concerned has been limited to one thing i think in a time like this investment would be for an over the balance sheets of every bank and it's pamper. and to the extent that this is probably a underwriting agency, sometimes as well, and they haven't found any falls elsewhere in addition to his real estate and was become for the a commercial real estate buffalo. so the banks and non gay and national institutions, they do seem to be pockets of risk, but they largely tend to be in the central business district of the major cities. and while that doesn't work for them, the, the risk don't seem to be at the levels which should encourage investors to be worth more broadly in the us, but lower the rest of the world. but i would also add that there are these risk elsewhere which link type research is leaving germany. and it's possible that those
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risks all the way to contagion, although i don't think we're there yet either. okay, richard, stay with the 2nd. i just want to ask you a question about something related but completely different. really? 16 percent of american valencia was lived with parents in 2022. how that trans it's been on the rise for the past 2 decades. one of the reasons not to move out is finding rent a lot more expensive, but it was a few years ago. but the us still lacks far behind countries like malta, west 70 percent of adults younger than 35, still live at home with the parents, at least they did in 2022. so richard y millennial was staying at home and not moving out a how's that going to impact the property market? that it will have a material impact over the long term. as you said, in my youngest countries is quite traditional. it's also quite traditional southern europe for children to live with the parents for quite a long time. i think it will have a big impact on a change and the relationship model and how the economy falls over time in terms of
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the house for me and the rest of this friday and things like that. i think that what is inevitable is out of surprises. have risen overtime and interest rates as well when interest rates were lower than when it was rifle to the point has is but with the combination, both of my interest rates in house and guys it's just become impossible. but over time they will reach us. they will raise their savings and they will be able to. ready join the house, the latter is is called the new k. i think it's the most car just a matter of investment. richard, it's been raining, good to talk to you on counting the cost. many thanks and due to being with us, i can not bosses want their employees to walk out of course somewhere because they, they can actually achieve more by working spots. but how about working fuel days with the same workload and getting paid the same salary? well, advocates of the full day work weeks a could increase work of productivity and improve work life balance. that principle has been put to the test in different countries around the world. germany,
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for example, is the latest nation to explore it in an experiment that will last for 6 months. the country already has one of the shortest average working weeks in europe. but companies have been struggling with the shortage of skilled labor of the nations of embrace the idea with belgium, the 1st country in europe to legislate for a 4 day week. joining us from oakland and usually alexandra bonds. he's the founder of the full day week global, which is conducting the largest ever trials in different countries, including the u. k, to us south africa, and germany godaddy with a center. so is the full day working week, the future of what, what are the advantages of it? a good evening, adrian. well, yes, i think the advantages appointments, generally, not only do you get an improvement in productivity. the trial in america revenues increase by about 30 percent across the co. that was going to the truck. but critically you also get benefits the flow for him to the employees. yeah,
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so with my boss, but actually translates to actually the connection with the company and game schools, for example, seem to go up about 20 percent on average, and companies that introduced to reduce that last week. okay, everything has a balance. so i bo critics argue that it creates more stress, it impacts creativity. it's difficult to measure productivity, and it's not a clickable to, to all industries a comp it on every right. what do you make of us to? i wish i had a dollar where everybody said, well, you know, it impacts productivity. the answer is most companies don't measure productivity is what they do is they use the times of, sorry for productivity at the hospital proposition is i thing we call the 100 a 100 percent 80 percent time providing we get 100 percent productivity. and that also extends to customer service. now what we see on average
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is companies that excuse fits, that productivity overall goes off about $0.25. we also find teen look, creativity schools go stress levels markedly. draw a match primarily because people are learning how to look smart rather than just land sick leave. andrew cost a german economy, something like $28000000000.20. a does a 4 day working. we can practically the tool. absolutely it does. we see again across all the products, it's been quite consistent. it from south africa to the us to the u. k. to straighten the city. actually draw spine top in some instances, up to 60 percent. so it's not was translated into the government, the economy, you know, there is a 14000000000 your boost the economy of it's
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a similar statistic and date in the united states. so what we see is the people's stall play taking cloud sick days. now some of that because the sick, the, some of that of course is that doing home actually on the excuses. we're sick. all right? so when you can substitute that for planned the next, if you makes a big difference without all right, productivity as you say, is likely to go up or, or that's what they experiment show. does that mean that the, the bottom line is affected to the prophets rise in line? absolutely, in us, we find in our own company, we've now been doing this for about 6 years. but we are twice as productive one of the capital bases in terms of revenue as on nearest competitor. it does make a difference. i mean, is extremely sustained and bodies regardless of the industry that you are. and presumably, andrew, all of this mean means that the big the economy overall is much more dynamic.
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absolutely, because if you think about it, it's not just economy just the fact that you're guessing what the trip. but you might actually go time to do cycle more time to upscale, use a very critical become the countries that are thinking about how they react to be impact today. not. i'm actually you get back to family to each more time spent. children, the whole service flows through to the education while we see this is something where every when you start to focus on the length of time and productivity, rather than just sticking with a 5 day week, which is a construct. oh, you know, the, uh, the 20th century repetitive model actually strict fascination andrew manufacturing . they've really enjoyed that. thanks for being with us on counting the cost. 20.
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and that's, i'll show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, you can get in touch with us. i'm at a synagogue on x. try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c. when you to contact us, you could also drop us a line caution. the cost of i'll just say or don't that is our email address. as always, most people for you online at out is there a dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page and day you'll find individual reports, links at a time episode seems to catch up. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian instead of going to the whole team here at the thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next. this is the 1st genocide this we see in the real time. it's the victims themselves . there's a disconnect between what we are witnessing on social media versus what we're seeing on mainstream. it is always an attempt to frame a true side of them,
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but there is no 2 sides to this. the western media does have a western bias who understand what they are looking to see out and raise. the listening post covers how the news is covered. in the history a refugee camp in the south of bethlehem walls carry the images of palestinian detainees as my hon. mishaps husband set previously spent a year and administrative detention. she tells us he was arrested again several days ago. connected you to create a computer 90. we suffered a loss because of administrative detention, it would have been easier if you will sentence. then we'd know he'd be released after finishing his sentence. walk down any valley here, turn any corner, and this is what you will likely find. one household after another full of families waiting on word about their loved ones being held without charge, according to the palestinian prisoners society around $3300.00 promised indians are
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in this really jails sentence to administrative detention. the highest number in more than 30 years. surrounded by walls, full of photos to showcase happier times, these women try to lighten. but with the uncertainty only deepening, there's little comfort to be found. the seams of desperation near the ross of border crossing palestinians suffering forced starvation protest against israel's blockade of 8 supplies. the answer of any age good, have you with us. this is elza 0 life from dell also coming up the international fort adjust. it says the situation in rossa calls for the urgent implementation of measures that it requested last month. there has to be
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a temporary cease fire us president joe biden issues the strongest statement gets on a israel's war ongoing.

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