if i'm not reporting, i want to leave this and it was really a formatting thoughtful this coverage and there's no reason to target the journal on her. it's voices that none of the patients please connect with our community and tap into conversations you will find elsewhere. be that women are delivering babies in the shelters in the rubble of their own homes. and this is unacceptable. the stream on out to 0. it's totally, i shouldn't have recriminations. israel has went up, it strikes on his bike killing civilians and let her know about that. the group says, won't go unpunished. combined for the war on, does that, could this exchange escalates into the regional conflicts? this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian said again, the is really ministry, has been exchanging fine with the lebanese group, has bullet almost daily since october 7th. his boss says that it's in solidarity, but it's outlined garza from us and that it will continue as long as as well on bonds. the strip, at least 200 fighters and 13 soldiers have been killed. but this week is ready, strikes, killed, 10 civilians, including children in southern lebanon. his father has promised to retaliate, lebanon submitted a complaint to the un security council, both sides, se, then, not looking for all out war, but increasingly, attacks are happening far beyond the border area. so what does each policy want to achieve? and how likely is original conflict? we'll explore all of this without guests in just a moment. but 1st this report, by my life i'll be able to separate since is, are launched. it's will and cause a full months ago. the armies exchanges with resistance movements in the region have escalated the conflict between these riley ministry and has been

a lot at the living in bold. it has slid as the group kitch solitaire and see what the, how much against is really aggression that has been near data exchange as a fi us since october. the 7th had this wednesday was the most fun to tile. 3 hezbollah fighters and the keys, 10 civilians we killed in southern living on the groups lead a promised israel would pay for the general. why? no, not of us. we'll fight to get southern never on with our eyes on gaza when the aggression stops against gauze. and when the shooting stops in garza, you will stop the shooting in the self of this is the next day has been notified real goods towards northern israel. however, it is rarely defense minister you of garland says the country is not looking for full scale conflict element in the, on the plane instead of flying and living on sky as we speak of targets. and they know to a tech them and how to change the attack from one place to another. we could to a copy paste from garza to be roots, but we don't want to go there as well, would pay

a heavy price and it would be catastrophic to live in on. and his blog that said, for types of techs have displaced the keys, 85000 people on both sides of the boat to those left behind say they live in constant fear of a strikes every day. they say, you least prove they cannot be trusted. and that no one is safe near them, the targeting civilians to them. there is no difference between military personnel, children and adults. so kind of a sudden says, oh, we heard a loud explosion, but didn't know exactly what happened. i thought maybe rockets were launched from here, but then when the ambulance has started arriving with you, they had been a strong. these riley ministry has been accused of using much fos for us as a weapon and act that's testified as a whole crime. it has also stepped up a tax on has been the operation sites and carried out targeted killings of hezbollah and how much lead is fall from the battlefield raising fee. is that the one garza and bet tools on the lip and buddha will lead to georgia regional

conflict by the have a much a bit. i'll just around for inside story the. let's bring it, i guess, for today's discussion from london, but joined by gilbert as ca, who is a professor of development studies and international relations at the university of london. the school of oriental and african studies from fe routes were joined by how a job up that award winning journalist of all sorts of his bulk bone with a vengeance from brussels. we're joined by elijah, might be a, who's a ministry of security analyst is covered conflicts in the, at least including lebanon for more than 35 years. a full welcome to you or eliza. let's start with you. just how dangerous a moment is this for the region, despite all policy saying that they don't want one. could we see israel and his ball a boy again, it's trinity dangerous because the middle east is dealing with is really prime minister for why is the whole thing to hasty wants to remain impala and is that

um and even that the call dining oh, those guys nothing on a dock rock syria. what ever keeps him at school to justify who's pregnant and to dismiss and the election in age. right. he's going to enlarge the war as long as he can and as much as he can. and this is why he's breaking the rules of engagement 11 now. and he is trying to provoke a lot into a lot of the country knowing that has been that wants to establish the terrans. and he is the. yeah, despite all these that tend to commit all these bombardments and commit crimes against civilians he is insisting and continuing to bombard them into and up and down and about or insisting that the wrong guys that that is the key of the

solution. and the trouble of everything, and maybe these today, how do you agree? but this is a particularly dangerous moment for the region. how likely is it but it could escalate? yes, absolutely. i think we are now at the junction where we were referred to as well. we see it as a tipping point because that's where we are. we are clipping phones. if you had office, this is on the go 2 months ago. it wasn't as, as it is now. at both sides. we know and see we do not one before. well, so i don't know to them to wage lost a war on each other. both sides however, have read lines. the it has been a lot or is what i'm and um, the escalations. and the last, the escalation, especially from it's written in the last week, is quite a const considerable and it backs the question as to what they want to achieve from best. do they want that full single they trunk force has been locked into a large scale war, however, has one last thing it lies or if you want. and if we look at both sides,

we see the testable continues to target smooth tree. ma installations or ministry targets, whereas in the case of israel is what it is actually and provoking has been a lot by targeting civilians at targets. like we've seen the last 3 days that were mothers and children and families that were actually can. so even though the, they, they, he doesn't want to war but like, and i just said it is and nothing i was impressed at the moment to continue in a state of war because as long as he is, he will not be ousted. and he will not be facing the criminal charges that he has to face later. so he wants to stay on the seat with like, and i to also said this is the risk of burning the speech and, and, and blowing it out may be out of control. bye bye, bye bye. triggering reached out to for gilbert escrow professor. as you heard that both sides insist that they don't want a war. his bar, however,

has vowed to retaliate. for wednesdays strikes this week, is there a danger that the situation could accidentally escalate? and i think it to be difficult to, to speak to fax it that is given the, the extreme state of preparation, i know awareness of both sides and they have both or means of self control. uh there are some groups, other done as well, that walk rates from what it sounds like. somebody seeing groups in within, through the unless it says, but they are also under control. my husband. so i don't think that it is. i mean, any escalation would be just a matter of accident. if, if it happens, it would be something i would say, the quite deliberate and on these are i decide not on that has the left side. i'm. i mean that when you say both sides don't for, i don't want to to need to lock still or i don't think this is a,

a good for both sides. i'm pretty sure the cable does not want to, to get into a large scale of war. otherwise, they would have done that from the beginning in october. and at the moment when you know the forces of time as well as the intact and the that could have been a joint or both homeless that has below, which was what time is actually wished for at that moment. but the left button and after the experience of 2006, i mean it has more light is quite wherever your fault a new episodes of distraction in the country live. and as of today become the, you know, it's on the verge of this. it's an abysmal a condition economically, and that's why i'm from the business side as beloved. doesn't have any incentive in enlarging though i can't say the same also of but isn't right. is what it has been

for, for quite long explaining that the day will come when day we'd have to set an account with as much law. they come to the rate of what they regard as some kind of advance possible position of fear on the, on their laws are in boulder. that's how they look up has the law and, and the, you know, uh, less always. so before it goes before october, 7th, that's oh is the, the present, the ministry of this for the defense, social defense for peters are right. you are the man threatened to to turn the, to the back to the stone age. uh, when he was visiting the border area and so some positions of life plus the for the electric picking up on on board. he was saying a few minutes ago about the prime minister netanyahu is perhaps a conflict in the most of, of israel and the south of,

of level with level under as a whole. uh, perhaps part of a strategy surrounding exiting garza in the main line for the for your why and for human face to make sure that the attention of the what is know that there's a way of there for the senior course and know shifting from the the not 15 the attention from what's happening in guns and all the crimes against humanity and will crimes and content of jew sign against the but a senior people that is a right not, not a box from the people in the software that and then have accepted to engage in this will where hezbollah doesn't have really limits of sacrifice is because 1st if he's writing is not stall, then the next button is on there. but secondly,

there is a link between the palestinians and the live in a boat off. i'm paying adjust schools against injustice because they're also better treat 11 on the by by these res full. that has the law is worthy to intensify the bombardment equally or bit less because we're talking about a non state that says a classic, an army that is going to the one of the strongest in the middle east. well, that was the narrative. before the 7th of october, but the senior resistance obviously has broke basement. and and because of that is ryan has have power of destruction. but again, as well also has about destruction and hasn't use all these weapons yet. so at the moment they took containment, even if the some violation from time to time. but what's going to happen next and why all they put his team in going to be pushed for another extra those. this is

where the tension one way it gave me on the boat is with lab and on the man and to walk when they would contribute to the head is right. because if it is doing is with no be left or nose. alright, and i'll come to you in just a moment, but i just want to bring gilbert in. just just remember that i didn't, i'll take you at the question particularly well when i put it to elijah. but do you think that a conflict in, in the north of israel, in southern lebanon, could be part of it is really strategy surrounding exiting gauze that somehow or what is the, the, the link is in the, in the fact that the is around one to, to avoid a conducting door on both fronts. green the, the intensity of destruction in inc, as is unprecedented, as i believe on the now a notice. and that pulled up would not have been possible without direct us involved. this is the 1st joint us is riley was in fact the 1st floor which did

united states completely, uh, uh, take spot in uh, approves the it schools, uh and organize them in a bridge without which is the way and would not have been able to do that but no, i mean they, so they were at busy destroying gas, which should they said the, the, the, the end of the year 23 as a deadline for the intensive most intensive phase of bombing. and as soon as that ended, so from the 2nd, they'll generally they stopped at the escalation on the east side with the assassination of the solid. and not only who is of course, i'm actually good about who, who lived in the, the midst of the area is controlled by as well and level. and we had a series of such escalation, the starting from the, from that point. so very clearly from the beginning of that to

a is what is considered that since the intensive them being of guys is over as a phase and they move to to what they call a lower intensity war. there they, they, they can strengthen 11. i'm with the, with the repeating what they did, think of that, that's exactly what they are doing every day. they are threatening of thrown into the problems as they didn't cost. okay, how do you want to come back on that before i put a direct question to you? yes, i think they are intensifying across the border with lebanon. however, i don't think yet they've started to, and then i to the point of reducing it's troubling. like they've done and god, can they do that in the future? yes, absolutely. they have the power with the, you know, they, they, they have the, the, they have the will things where level and doesn't talk about the club in as in the love news army or has been lives in the resistance has been law. and the non states act or, or the mini army so they can inflict damage and would that 11 and would prefer

not to go to that, not to see it damaged. obviously the sword, like 2006 if it's off comes, of course they, when. and the fact of the matter is that uh for the lebanese, so many lebanese as much as that would pay back. and they're not looking for the back. they've been, they've done that got to show us where it starts to still cross the bosses. whereas an is where it is where it has never been to huge bombardments and they, we got back from says, well, i was able to reach and quite deep into is when it has never used it yet because it's always strong computer screen. but if, if, if need be, if, if, if um, is there a decides to, to, and as you know, quote unquote the result of the use into, you know, the, the stone age one? yes, 11 and can also, or has one look an awful and fixed mass of damages across as well across the cues that have never seen more in their life. and they would be huge that impacted by it . so i, i think, i think, as well as, as well as incentives always to come back to, to lebanon and has been finalized, or they think they would find them as that's the last 4. but i don't think they're

ready when i say ready, i don't think they want to do it at the same time as the war and gaza is going. so i thing, but this escalation it's, it's still within a certain joel graphic. it's been within certain rules of, of engagement. they both seem to understand both when and course that the law says they're allowing for these losses. but they don't want to go beyond for the time being this much say that the wouldn't go beyond later. i love it, and it's not his fault of his fault is not 11. and what are the dangers for his folder here in terms of public opinion in lebanon, if the country is somehow dragged into, into a conflict with, with his right again and targets in a route, for example, of being hit when we are expecting this time from, again, from the rhetoric that they spent the beginning, but this is what they would do and they use that rhetoric in order to pressure the use government tools, found a guest or for the population to spec, look that it's no secret the love on, on, you know, there are 2 sides of this equation, there's one side that's totally um, it rejects,

rejects, this, even even what's going on now rejects the idea the jumping in should be driving for the sport. well that as well for that matter is finding the support that the system is. but then you have another sector which is a huge sector which are, you know, and we're not just talking about types of in use or, or those from the software. that's also in includes a large sector from the, from, from the noise and from, from the east, and from the, from the christian side. that's ok. if you want allies or an alliance and they accept, but this might happen and they will take the brunt of it's not available. it's yes be we'd be that's what they said that they would have thought they would. i think so. you must certainly, i think um, he responded to a doctor a few days ago when he um, when he made that last statements. and he said, you know, if, if they were pushed into such a will, where he has to go into war bank or, or um, you know, or, or diesel was all the specialist would have to be set aside. and he would go into

this war without actually um, not without considering anything, but he will do it because he thinks that the right thing. cuz i've been unusually in this and the space is always sort of boston will start to do with dryly. you put your defenses aside and you around the, around your, your, your, your other uh, you know, the people that are being hit or, or whether we're, if, and then we'll discuss the political disagreements later on if the war is normal and it's not like, i mean anyone can stop what's coming, and no one can stop the front with lebanon as it has been, law will have to defend. yes, you say, uh well as muslims, not as well. no, but there's a lot sector 11 under this has been lost in the last sector for a spell out that has nothing to so and it is a non state act or in the butt. but that's also we need to be very cute. it's because the muse army has never ever been allowed to be recognized as well as well in order to defend the country. and this has nothing, no disrespect to the peace army. but the fact of the matter remains that the united

states and these big powers have refused projected and block any attempt to um, on blow up his army to such a point where it can actually take on is what if need be. this has not happened. so the resistance such as hezbollah and others have, have, have what blown into this, and it's become their job to do that color. let's move on. i have to elijah to his rails ongoing strikes and southern lebanon amount to ball crimes. it's most it is because it set that against civilians, but particularly when uh uh, during the tax the, the last time in the to you just a couple of days ago. this is a direct attack against opinions and is a she ampro vacations, hateful to in dollar deductible, has one that is extremely sensitive to the assassination of the kidding all the targets kidding of civilians. because these are nice and especially drowned with

hans because if to target, particularly the bachman with a family that is a crime against humanity because what they thought living civilian also age, right. as being in discriminatory, destroying many houses in the south government on banning the so that they also do key all that a moms to crime. that is right, is a custom to, this is not something you when you see what they are doing, engage them what they have done in the last 5 rolls and does a and the 2611 because they are an accountable. they can do that and i would love to add one other point. the danger, as far as the all, maybe troops on the live in these borders. and there are at these really a gathering mobile soul says they've has one loud response possibly as right. the has the right to, we kind of get to these really because they are bothering because they are

targeting civilians. what happened if these rubies lose $20.00 to $30.00? so it is with one of the big rocky top heads for law. this is where things that on the kind of today to get a spin over to a lot of war. so we won't be really on the edge of the base with the determination alternate to now to remain in power improvement. the beloved by saying, well now i saw any civilians not and the other another to you. as you write, the also suggests, is it good? go to be rude. and this is where the war can be in the go. but does it un peacekeeping force on the ground in southern lebanon? what's it doing at this time? of hyphen tension? i mean, if it comp keep the piece what, what does is roll the well, yeah. oh, listen, i mean then the face of what is happening. they are just watching and reporting. this is not the force that has been able to to, to,

to take action for wrong. and besides the one of the issues that are on, on the table now and didn't make your cations led by washington on the one hand and thought it some, the other, it was in regard to live and on. the one of the question is the, the future of felt this you enforce and especially a deployment of the news army, which they would regard as a, a more important than, than just the, the keeping the so you enforce a doing the job security council resolution, 17 a one, what does all this mean for that? with that, so that's the resolution that was i looked at the end, the week of the 2006 is riley war. i'm left on them and on as well. and that include the, the, with the role of, of the,

of the bullet force is north of the found here that are, which is something like a $25.00. so it'd be kilometers from the north of the, off the border and the treatment that they've been, these army and the united nations forces in that, in that area. but since then this, this agreement as a kind of last, it's a, it's a reality. and is it right on the one side has being a system if there's going to be violating the disagree with by late thing going since the but, and he's s base and, and taking every kind of actions and therefore, as well, the forces have done back and re deployed in the area and that has led to this explanation between the, between the 2 sites as the, as i mentioned,

the is riley defense minister. last august, the visiting the border had the made the threat that they mentioned. these threats are being made, but we know that is, will know, is also preparing the lead. they are taking every kind of measures for a possible action on the bottom. i think the key point that to is now holding them back is uh the, the fact that the, with the increasing pressure that you have international, the, especially on the issue a for alpha, for the invasion the of the front. that is right. and it is a voice to, to, to, to do the, it's, that's wouldn't be the moment for either way, you know, to, to engage and to another war that's within, to have the approval of the piece flushing. so that's the key point here. and i

mean that being talks about it, then you know who, but i think that the whole, right, and these are in really much bidding on a come back of the trump, through the presidency of the united states. and that would create for them. the idea of the condition they would be the into, in engaging in to a much larger war that would in, including striking out the wrong last problem. i'm so i'm sorry if it went very type of time i drive, what about one more question to you? what would be the implications of an escalation for the wider region than you mentioned to ron or the other earlier. what other policies be be drawn in? if so, who, how for tank protracted or otherwise would, would have an escalation be who would when to uh, the resistance always waiting and be able to buy is always defeated. however, the damages in every will not be coming to a very critical situation where people are nice to retaliate against the kidding.

but this is another thing and that can, it's been a and something the has below no be left to go. where again, the military in and can be brought it want can join in it. why join and yemen? what was going to win festival, all the senior people over on the back, the k, because on the one statement 2nd, the detroit is losing the on c, j is on monday. and is there a crown load on the head? and on anyone side was essentially all was concerned that who didn't know about do these really and to all, does it support those, even if they are supported by a super far like united states and all this find this european community that is not taking any measure against visual, so again the day, yes, when you end up paying the price that the cause is much bigger. the causal by this time the bigger than guys is bigger than that and on a lot. yeah. man and you,

right. and the we must and many thanks indeed to you all the lines remind me a holler jump up and go. but as calm as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website which is of l. g. 0, don't com. for further discussion, you're welcome to join us on our facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash 8 inside story. and you can join the conversation on x or handle the a page right inside story from me every, instead of going at the same here and go home. i'll see you again the, the white, sandy beaches and clear to close both this. this is the multi it's the world knows and loves the island of. and gilly is a smaller waste. next to the capital, one of the most densely populated citizen, the well, just off the coast, a new project to try and remedied pillows subject to the sea for

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god, you mean my state is dependent on the health of the planet? yes. okay, do more on it. just the, the scenes of desperation near the rough uh, crossing palestinians, sufferings for starvation, protest against israel's blockade of 8 supplies. the, i'm sort of any, it's good to have you with us. this is elsa 0 live from the also coming up to day 5 patients die or not. so hospital often is really rate cuts, power and oxygen supplies to the facility. the there has to

be to encourage ceasefire you as president joe biden issues the strongest statement yes on israel's one.