sweetie lives, here we make the rules, not sales people empower, investigate, expose the questions they use and abuse of power around that. go on out just there . the hello, i'm sammy's a, then this is counting the cost and i'll just say era. we do look at the world, the business, and the economics this week, from funds to assign to raise. india is 5 minutes. so wants to transform this country's economy. what do his plans needful,

frustrated agricultural workers. also this week, japanese consumers are coming back on spending that japan slipped into recession, lost its ranking, as well as the largest economy plus a high, a price to pay if you have a sweet tooth price. as a soaring chocolate make, has a feeding the hungry call to employees close to half of india's workforce, but generates less than 20 percent of g d. p. millions of small hold of farmers who have seen the yields and incomes full, demanding support from the government prime minister and run them out of the needs that vote soon as he seeks to extend this decade in office. but keeping them happy . well, that's been a challenge. actual time of age reports engulfed into your gas. these farmers have been marching to new delhi, demanding guaranteed across the prices,

or request the government refuses to give them, but it is the duty of the government that they should give us minimum support price . we are demanding minimum support price for $23.00 crops. if they agree to it, entire nation will be prosperous. our entire families will be employed. for weeks, farmers across india had been taken to the streets. they are unhappy with the conditions provided by the government, despite their peaceful protests they've been met with resistance. farming is the backbone to feed these economy employees more than half the nation's workforce. people like jobs that are seeking a guarantee, the minimum price at least 50 percent above production costs to make enough for living $50.00. the put all the work cut the problem and farming is high input costs, sometimes not from calamities. also lead to low yields. we don't get the proper price for our crops, which leads to major losses because we have to then take

a learn. farming is no longer profitable to out of the dispute beginning 2020, with a law in the modernizing farming by removing middleman and fix prices. which farmers say benefits and large corporations for a year, long standoff like to prime minister, and then ended up monday for appealing the law. despite promises to double their salaries, your financial conditions have worse and after the goals will be drawn in 2021, the demands would not match. so the on back those 2 months, they are demanding something as simple as a simply get into which is m s b, which is minimum support. price at which the government buys the cops, which means they are off or just in the short info for them. so those are kind of a safety net. unions are also the magic law and favors for small farmers and a minimum wage for agricultural workers. the government says it's open to

negotiations. use hans on the no, because on the efforts will continue to speak to the farmers union, a constructive and positive manner. we are ready to hold dialogue with them. of these protests are taking place as india is preparing for national elections by the end of the month. some say they could potentially affect prime minister bodies, re election access. i'm gonna reach out to 0 for accounting, the cost. well, joining us now from new data in india is jaya and chris. now he's a senior fellow and us in the a policy studies at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us. all farmers right to demand high, a guaranteed crop prices. see from farmers perspective, you know, they have their, their lights in the mind being that like, but let's understand, you know, too much of a deep one is that they're talking about all the crops. they're coming to the minimum support price. they're designed misspeak, and which is uh, they're talking about a 50 percent profit, owns the cost of production,

and which is also in line. but uh, you know, that the noticed, noted signed is the image. so i mean nothing. so comedy that accommodations based off the old $1.00 times of the cost of production should be the minimum support price for flood or large the photo of the for the key drops. you know what i don't think uh, you know, uh, it may be wise to do that. let's understand india on the waterfall most in india or most 86 percent of them are small and marginal farmers, you know, and they do not tend to get been impacted by. it must be as much as the large one large scale. but i think a, a too much of protection under uh, but it must be extended to on crops, which is already there for we didn't buy the, but we extended to all of the crops to my mind if we start a, you know, market forces and also what we're dis, disregard the demand and supply innovation. you don't do much of protection and other must be would lead to some crops like, you know, having a division of own production. and that would be a shortage. busy of you know, other green so you know what i,

what i'm trying to say is dant willie lead to price increases and inflation and food prices for consumers. big may lead to, uh, that kind of a challenge. you know, uh because uh, if you extend it must be the walk drops, it would put a huge amount of bucket play button on the, on the federal government. and also it will lead to inexplicable distribution. uh and uh, you know, if there is a good uh, you know, example balance between demand and supply. it may lead to forwarding inflation as but you know, but i personally do not think it as wise to uh, extend, it must be to on crops and, uh, an old one. let's look at the, you know, the deductible between 12 and 20 of the forms you know, which would've brought in on the box, but the bottom line, but the, the biggest, but would be to my mind that mckenna zoom was more mocked at lake and all i although i'm glad you mentioned the 2020 the 2021 era, but hold on, hold for a 2nd because we need to just remind ourselves of the background to what's going on

in the bigger picture. moody of calls wants to ton india into a develop nation. well, the economy is expected to grow 7.3 percent this year. it's also on trying to become the world's largest economy by 2030 over taking japan in germany. a major driver of that growth is infrastructure. more than a $130000000000.00 has been allocated to build assets like roads and poets. they see it. india is also trying to boost its manufacturing thanks. so which accounts in any 17 percent of g d. p. it aims to replace china as a global production hub, bought factories all struggling to fill vacancies despite modi's pledge to create higher paying jobs or critic site in the quality is rising. and growth is viewed by sectors that don't help poor people. in rural areas, the average per capita income in the south asian nation is nearly 2 and

a half $1000.00 a year. and that's less than the quotes or of china's so talking about the poor people being left out of this, why is it taking so long john to address of the challenges of farming conditions because as we were talking of minutes ago and it's been going on since 2020 with the protested base. right. see, you know, logistics understand actually going to going to do it slowly. 15 percent. uh, you know, of, i'll send you an offer and you can be, you know, and if you look at what you don't have exact data, but you know, the range anywhere between uh, you know, 35 percent to 45 percent off the workforce. depends. uh, you know, the, the likelihood is, depends on the codes. uh, you know, it's, it's a, it's, it's a, it's a very lopsided situation. and it's, it's happening in all the countries that above. but you know, look forward to the point of being from i be closer to the challenges, how do you create more jobs? so in the, in neil, it's of the same thing is happening. people are moving away from that because uh, because uh, you know, uh, you know, so, you know, the just for the percent of judy

b cannot feed the, you know, a was a 40 percent off of the workforce. so they're moving away. but the challenge is how you create more jobs going on. so, so far on the government's track record of you know, has, has not been as good as it has been on other friends. so i think the biggest challenge indiana is amazing today is to create more and more jobs, you know, i think. and if that happens, you know, the shifting of me before, i'll be from that, go to a, you know, what that comes up in the use that goes up and for that as you, right. you said, i think the government has to the scaling, the admission with the problem to start having bought the phone. i think it needs to needs to be given up, but i should leave a fly and somehow i have to get a feeling it does. i don't know the team but skill us up very, very, very important. if india has to be buddies, demographic do it and you know, be, have to interest, do it on scale of people appropriately. which is very, very important because governments proud to be a but some that i get the feeling a little up with what all things it does taking a bit of a back seat. all right,

dan, they may be moving away from agriculture, but it's still a big employer. when you look at the numbers, you know, people in india and how many people are engaged in agriculture right. is there also a child and to an improving efficiency of the agricultural sector and productivity? yeah, so that's a, that's a big challenge. generally, if you look at the body of the rice and leads to these 2 crops, you know, and uh, you know, the productivity that, to the average productivity that to get in india is out of the heart of what you get in buckets in the us. and even buckets of china, you know, kind of looking. so i think, i think the productivity has to blow up. uh, you know, more and more modern science and technology, more equipment needs to be used in farming. i think that's like the right thing on the water, but the problem is how does it happen if 86 percent of the 5 most are small in modern and, you know, and, and, and they have a, a 100 miles kind of kind of existence. so do they have a, do they have the support mcdonough isn't due to adopt and embrace more technology,

more equipment and well, and then let me. yeah. sometimes your mindset is the government's interim. 2024 budget, providing that support is it doing enough? uh, to some extent yes, the us, i'm been getting the programs that are also some almost loans which have been agreed upon. but again, you know, this is a kind of 2nd segment of farmers. well, the probably, they're still not happy though, that protesting how do you think the stand off is going to and i think the purpose is also partly pretty good because they know somebody elections. so bottom and collections out on the corner to the find much lots of fees that the government would be. ready one variable speed to, to, to, to prolong any crisis. and, and so they, it's, it's a splitter to anybody by the time i'm not saying farmers don't have a problem that you would challenges. but, but the timing of the protest as has got something to do with the what's coming it makes sense and i find them and keep believe last payment that the funds hopper and they will, they will as getting bullied, it will be able to live up dialogue between the government and the farmers, they are asked to be more donald and all the please all be brought from the table

for the rise discussion in the notes. but at the bottom actually been in and not going to be in control. the whole, all right, i'll tell you what i find. thanks so much jan. so your analysis on that the off the is of deflation. japan is now seeing inflation with a false is price growth in more than 30 years. but wages are failing to keep up with the rising cost of living and the japanese. well, they're not spending as much as they were. last slowed economic activity, the ends value to the dollar has gone south. japan's economy is now slipped into a recession, is dropped to rank below germany to become the world's full largest economy. we'll get into that with all gas shortly, but 1st, let's talk about what is the recession? well, it's when the economy shrinks, for 2 consecutive quotes is measured by a decrease in gross domestic products. well, that's known as

a technical recession because any one top of the economy suffers. whereas a full recession. well, that effects multiple sectors for a sustained period. and it affects people who faced job losses and reduced income leading to difficulties and paying bills, securing loans and maintaining savings. businesses. on the other hand, while they struggle with decrease sales and potential bankruptcy, let's have a closer look at what happened in japan. the. the

shaw phone is and consume is say, that feeling the pinch i'm looking on zillow. so of course we feel that i feel that

the way customers shop is changing. they would bring shopping lists, but now to protect their way of living, they are coming to see what the bog himself, and then deciding what to buy when he got on off. ok, so that's good. i've had to pay cuts. so i stopped buying clothes on teaching out in order to save money. well, joining us from tokyo is jessica called director of the investment advisory firm melnik's group japan. he's a former chief economist at jp morgan and merrill lynch good to have you with esa. so we go this unusual situation, i guess where we're seeing corporate profit searching. the stock market is rising unemployment rate. so low and yet depends economy unexpectedly fell into recession . why it's very straightforward. you'll remember that in this country, one in 4 is now living off of pension. it's a very, a society average age is 50 years old. one and 4 people is actually over

70 now. and as a result of that, you know, you're living off your pension, which means that the same price is going up, energy price is going up, all of this is into your purchasing power. so the gap between corporate japan doing extremely well and the stock market searching and the average people and that in depth is wide me. well we see then wages increase if the price is going up. yes, and you're doing that, you're seeing that way just for the people in the twenty's and thirty's are actually growing by 456 percent. so you know, for the young generation everything is fine. but as i said, you know, you've got this sort of barbell where, you know, 25 percent of the people are over 70 and they don't feel, you know, the surgeon incomes. and quite frankly, you know, they're not going to feed it because they live all pensions, not of wages. so what is the solution that for flap very tricky situation with

people on pensions? i don't think it's a very tricky situation. it's just par for the course. and you know, in the sense of bad, you know, as a society ages, you know, the increase in asset prices. the increase in competitiveness of corporations does not necessarily translate into g d p on national income. so, you know, it's a great country to be in. it's a wonderful country to invest in with plenty of opportunities and the quality of life is still absolutely 2nd to none, particularly for the younger generation. all right, a lot of eyes that are on the bank of japan right now. do you think it's going to move ahead with the country's 1st rate increases since 2007? so i think the answer is yes, i do expect a normalization of interest rates. remember, we had basically 0 emergency interest rates for almost one generation for almost uh, you know, 25 years. and normalizing interest rates by giving

a little bit of a price of money for the term interest rates going to 2025 basis points. that's in the cards, but it does not mean that there is a type of monetary policy. it's a normalization of liquidity conditions, not the central bank stepping on the brake, hold on. what impact then might have on the yen cause that's an important question, isn't it? for x bolt is to you're absolutely right. you know, um, and i've learned the hard way um that what matters is not so much of japanese interest rates, but it is us interest rates. in other words, you know, if indeed the federal reserve, what to stop to increase interest rates one or 2 more times, that obviously would give a further boost to the dollar being comp trust. you find that the moves by the bank of japan, if at all, are going to be very inc from in full and not dramatic. so i do think that the dollar is points to increase further. all right,

and let's talk about the bottom line here. shrinking population comes upon them every cover, it's number 3, spot a. no, absolutely not about the japan's corporations will continue to gain competitiveness . you've got a new generation of c o slot, aggressive making new acquisitions. just look at nip on steel, buying us steel. i mean, that's a very aggressive move. so the gap between g d, p, japan, and corporate competitive japan, inc. bed gap is going to widen and don't worry, you know, the quality of life stays very high because public infrastructure remains excellent here in japan. so a more competitive corporate sector and still a very high quality of life here in tokyo. or why should the japanese government do to spell my more growth and perhaps try and look at that gap. so you know,

this is where it gets very interesting. in the end there is one primary answer which is to allow more immigration. and the 3rd piece here in japan are doing this . the visa regulations for workers, for digital nomads, for university students, the tetra, all of these visa regulations are being used. so, you know, if you really want to return to a 23 percent growth economy, you're going to have to reduce it up further on immigration bills. all right, jessica, call the thank so much good to talk to. the position economy also fell into a technical recession at the end of last year, but the bank of england says the u. k. showing signs of recovery. many economists of o to the bank of england to low a borrowing cost to help revive the economy. john. so the jeremy hunt says that could happen soon. a of the underlying picture here is an economy that is more resilient than most people predicted inflation is coming down real wages have been

going out now for 6 months. and if we stick to our guns, independent full cost is say that 5 year lease somewhere, we could stop the interest rates fully. and that will be a very important relief for families with mortgages. now let's have from some brothers paypal about how they feel about the contraction of the economy. i say things are suddenly picking up. it's still quite hard. i think 2nd off of the kind of the things we pay for the back to the company to general election just as opposed to both of them allows us to move on get a sense of direction since we investment for business and so on. the ultimate, i'm poor, i'm pretty upset, mistake, but i appreciate that people sort of think the jobs. it's hard, but it will get better. i think it's a symptom of what we did for of the last. how many years now? first in use, a government that seems intent on didn't have your stronger economies. a truck, a holics may have to full count more to satisfy the cravings. the main ingredient,

of course, is co co, which mostly comes from west africa. the price of the beans hit a rec, hold hi, of $95900.00 a ton. more than a week ago. manufacturer has a wire at the increase could damage that business. that's because the price of co co, a surge by 99 percent since last year major produces, including the maker of cadbury and tobler, run and reported a slump in sales. chocolate la. those are starting to feel the impact is some prices of almost doubled, making the one sweets escape come out to be so cost of all joining us for ma'am. so them in the netherlands is anthony fountain. he's the managing director of the voice network and coal. so off the co cobra on the to a good to have you with us. so let's start with the obvious one that ends and why all coco price is rising. coca prices are rising because supply is low and supply is low because of a combination of bad weather and that's, that's

a result also of climate change and the nino weather pattern that we're seeing at the moment. but also because of an outbreak of several crop diseases in west africa because of the threat of gold mining to go production in west africa. and because farmers are basically, they've been underpaid for so long that there's not really a future for them in cocoa. and so they're, they're not really doing their best to grow a lot of don't go at the moment because it's not worth it. is there something that west africa can do to take care of some of the structural issues at least obviously . um and i think that the government policies make a huge difference in what it is and what isn't able to be done there. so invest in infrastructure, invest in better education and, and invest in diversified production. and i go forestry versus just cutting down all the forests to grow, go go, right. so those are things that the governments can do, but most of those will have a best and medium to long term effect on what's going on. what about the prices of

all the commodities of a contributing to the challenge? chocolate produces a facing the cocoa price peak is quite unique to cocoa at the moment because it's really a co co, specific problem. but we're, we're dealing with a problem across all crops and across many decades now. and it's not just in tropical commodities where farmers are simply not being paid the price, they need to have good livelihoods. this is also why we're seeing a lot of farmer protests in europe at the moment as well. um, our local food system is not a pain doing a fair price to farmers is aimed at driving the price down as low as you possibly can get. because we, as consumers, want the cheapest possible products and so a market sold and this is sufficient to deal with that at the end of the day. do you see any hope? i don't think that market forces are sufficient to help the farmer market forces

work very well further down the supply chain, but we've known for decades. the market actually doesn't work well in paying the farmers properly. and in fact, the, the architect of the common agriculture will policy a dr. politician. many years ago after he invented the european colon agricultural policy said, actually supply and demand works very badly for farmers. and that's why we think farming needs to be paid remunerative. lee and not based on supply and demand. well, what about chocolate makes? is that how they dealing with this challenge? simply passing the everyone, they like to say everyone is quite concerned about these high prices. and when i say everyone, i mean everyone in the co co sector, the buyers, etc. not so much for the prices, although that is a challenge. but they're concerned because the prices are high because there's low supply. and if there's low supply at some point, that means if there's not going to be enough cocoa to make all of the chocolate

that we're used to consume it. so i think going down, always seeing the model for chocolate decrease not yet. but that's also because the big price hike hasn't actually reached the stores yet because cocoa gets sold a year, a year and a half in advance. and so the prices that we're seeing now on translate into the chapter price is quite yet that will take quite a while before it officially gets there. or i do think we're going to see the price is rise any time soon, given all the facts as you've mentioned. i've got go down with me. so i just so i would be surprised if chocolate prices went down. i think they will go up because companies are quite good at kind of translating their increased costs to consumers . so that will definitely happen at 1st. people thought this high price was going to be a short term, temporary thing because of a, whether anomaly at the moment. more and more analysts are thinking this will take quite some time still at least a year, if not longer. so i don't think chocolate prices are going to be coming down

anytime soon. we're gonna see shrink flash and with a shrink the size of the product instead. well, that's what we've seen every time so far, when coke of prices are high, they either indeed shrink the size of the bar, i think told them around it that quite spectacularly in a problematic way. a few years ago when it happened the last time. but you see companies making their packages smaller, but sometimes also putting a whole bunch of extra ingredients in that art. cocoa that are cheaper. so right expect see more kinds of chocolate with lots of other ingredients in it. all right, thanks so much for joining us on this sweet topic. thank you very much. and that's our show for this week, but remember you can get in touch with us, my x we to use the hash tag a day so you can see the new do oh thomas and email to the cost of l g 0. don't let's miss our address. as well for you online at al serra don't. com slash these.

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