new pace, they used to be able to face up to 37 kilometers out to the scene, but don't anymore from the hall. so the story, this is how this experience is randomly the 3 of your patients fall at the tax illegal supplements and then grab with detailed coverage. the 1st situation in the global group is worsening. at least half of the population is already starving. the what role does parliament play in iran, your body is choosing and you and a dyslexia and many hope is when say the way for with full us with a strict and betting system, an anti establishment candidate's boss from running is change possible in these logic with objects, this is the inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i am how should my above the wrong spot on to read actions looks set to be a major test for the government wide. and to stop has been candidates on to expect to to in many seats and low voter turnout could indicate extensive discontent into 1022 of the country. it was blocked by mass protest, and many of money is still cooling for referrals. so how is the government responding and what lies ahead for these? let me quit public with go to our panel in just a moment. first, vince, i'm on on has this report. iran is electing a new parliament. but some in the capital to ron or disillusion. they don't believe their vote will make a difference from my chest. i should have gotten anything going on. i'm not going to vote because my experience from the previous result was not good. i don't think i'll choose anyone. i can't see anything new or any new statements. they're all just the same. old slogans on the terry must have the biggest problem is people's

lack of trust in the effectiveness of parliament, governments and says, there are plenty of choices. however, all candidates are vested in advance, and some politicians who paper reform say they're borrowed from running other than that. oh yes. how are you this? hello. yeah, 2 of the final number of qualified candidates was about 15000 people from the 20000 to registered. and naturally the rest of all those who were disqualified or ineligible according to our country's loan, to the many uranium one change. in 2022 mass protests took place nationwide after young women died in police custody mazda, i mean, he had been arrested for allegedly violating the strict dress code for women. this prompted demands for reform, the sum, even calling for an end to these logic republic. the government clamped down on protest and since passed even tougher penalties for ignoring the dress code. a visa a betty is one of

a handful of performance candidates who made it on the ballot. she says problems stem from women, be excluded from influential positions for more. so to get the issue where you're fine on to, you know, women, all the very active society hold very small share of power. they will have access to positions of secondary importance, such as counsellors, a deputy minister for women's affairs. it is the man who make the decisions even when the concerned women. with many reformers voices either disqualified or void, calling the vote. turn out is expected to be an important factor. if voters stay home, it could be assigned. the establishment is losing popularity. then monahan al jazeera for inside story. the best way you know, guys joining us from the hold on is how much not on the side of the diversity of to have on, on the run in political and us inventories. roxanne fall off on my end, profess of international relations. and we're the middle east bought it to of the

university of cambridge. in this little we are joined by a non thought to buy a new right in of size on ice. and chief executive will couple of things tank focused on the me, the east. welcome to the program. what kind of the like to ask you about a general sentiment that this election could perhaps be one of the most delicate moments for the political establishment in iran since these logic revolution? 1979. how accurate is this characterization? i'm not really sure because ever since i was a teenager during election times, they would say this is one of the most sensitive moments in the revolutionary period. so it's difficult to say, obviously the elections are important of the current administration, if the president wants to be re elected, if he has to be seen as having strong support, if he fails to games, took support,

he could lose the election next year, especially since the economy isn't doing very well. of course, his political opponents of uh, like present, real jaime, and his people, they, people still don't have great memories of the economy during that period. so it is a certain moment where people see the current administration is not performing extraordinarily well and the previous administration not being very successful. but uh, we'll see it's difficult to say what will happen at this age ro, side and many people are close to the monitoring the election this time uh, waiting to see how many people would show up at the bottom. why is the turnout voter turnout? very important at this time. well, i think we can look back at, but it was like 4 years ago at the previous election,

it was down 42 to 42 percent this time, but the latest polls are expecting about 41 percent, which certainly implies that the majority are not coming to be, to cast their votes. i think it's a combination of both a very bad economy and a period of feeling. and so they're not part of the political momentum that the leadership is taking a direction quite different than that, that the pop populace is feeling. and so there's a certain degree of feeling that they are not, no matter how much they vote, they will not be engaged in improving their situation. and so i think there's a great deal of despondency involved. on the other hand, i think it's also become very concerned that the leadership itself does not really care whether the population is voting or not. they don't see it as

a implication on their own legitimacy. how should we? i've done this is my question to how should we analyze a no vote to turn out if you have is this time in this election? is it this content with the political establishment in general or just with a behavioral i say, or is it mainly because people don't trust that the government is going to improve that live in standards? look, i believe we should, we should look at it as a the way that we would look at it anywhere else. you have the trends you have as works on our side of periods of a time in which there is more satisfaction or content among the broader population with the state of affairs of the country. there is a period in which people have, have increasing the, the feeling they kept, that they can shape politics and the country through elections. and i think it is fair to say that currently, um we are in a period or in

a downward trend in that respect that there was law and much enthusiasm about elections. this has to do with all sorts of different grievances. this also may have to do with the way that candidates, or the political establishment as a whole, hasn't managed to or failed to create that enthusiasm about political competition in a way that creates more of a mold or 3rd turn out. so in that respect we are currently and certainly in the low how much would you expect a voter turnout similar to what happened last to the past election in the sense that is what is going to be no way of incentives and major cities high in rural areas all the day, not dynamics could shift any time or it is all the way is lower in the city like to wrong. because the actual law in my opinion is deeply slot. for example, if i vote tomorrow,

i will have to fill the 30 names for parliament and for another account. so i choose it as the leader 16. so i have to fill in $46.00 names for the whole city . and i'm, i can small cities where i have a relationship with the m p. i know who my m. p is. he comes to my street or to my local school or to a local mosque or wherever. and i can meet him in his office in 10 run with there is no connection between the, the individual and the candidate or the elected parliamentary. and we have the same problem in major cities as well. but in tap on it is the most difficult, and it's also very time consuming. if you really sit down and write all the names, you could be there for quite a long time. and then the people in front of you have to do it. so you may be standing in 2 for hours just to cast a vote. that's why parliamentary elections any ronda turn out,

is usually significantly lower than presidential elections because it presents for the president. you just go in, give you a, give the name and then do you leave? so it's traditionally the iran, based upon them entry elections are between 42 and a 60 percent. it ranges the lowest says your previous guess, pointed out those 4 years ago. i don't believe that everyone in the political or, or the political establishment of large doesn't want to see a high turn out. but i think a major issue any ron, according to polls me by far, is the economy. that's number one. number 2, number 3, number 4 in different ways it's express and uh, the because of the sanctions, but also because of a policy and that has mismanagement. the economy hasn't been doing well for maybe a decade now. and mr. a see when he 1st came in,

there was optimism that he would be able to bring about change so far. although i had these last year at the economic, the economy grew significantly, but people don't feel any change. they continue to feel, but the situation is not good. so it's sort of like what was one said in the united states. it's the economy, stupid as they would. ready but again, and that's also true, by the way, for us elections, the presidential election em us to turn out is much higher, but the congressional elections are usually in the thirties and fourties asana. is it fair to say that this is going to be purely mainly just about economy and the growing discontent among people because of the increasing inflation, the sanctions that have been biting into the economy for quite some time? is it just purely an economic issue here? well, it's certainly the economy that's the most of the media that's on people's minds

and the currency has just been dropping against the dollar. for example, quite substantially over the last 7 weeks. and the result of a, a downward trend is that more and more people are falling under the poverty line. and so these are immediate concerns. it's very difficult to find and more of goods in the, in the markets that are, are being affordable. people are really struggling, they're holding 2 jobs. so i think we're seeing the translation of what in the past . certainly could have been an argument that it was both a political and economic set of issues translating into becoming primarily economic because of the immediacy of this isn't done in a, in theory, when people are frustrated with the performance of government likely because he indicates, as there is an inflation which is standing up 50 percent,

the high consumer prices, and you have the flattening cover. and so you would assume that people would to take that and to was that lead us. but while we seeing basically is that ultimately the conservative was didn't have a biggest say in the next parliament. and the conservatives are likely to continue just to further consider dates that political gains. does he make sense? you could obviously say that the elections are one way to interact with the state. and you can, of course, if you're discontent with the state of affairs and you have the feeling that engaging in collections and finding someone who represents or stands for the things that matter to you. and then you have the opportunity to change it to take this opening or this an offer by the state structures, so to speak, to participate. and in fact, make sure that people are voted out that you no longer want to see in there. and

this has happened quite often in the past 4 decades of this i me for public. but as i said earlier, current lease, this doesn't seem to be necessarily need the case. there is a lack of representation for some of the topics and grievances that people have. they certainly have primarily to do with the economic issues that were already mentioned. but they're obviously also cultural, social and political grievances where we see of a lack of representation or a lack of candidates that would be an incredible fashion and body, the grievances that people have or address them properly. so therefore, we are currently seeing that this engagement or withdrawal so to speak from, from those who are not satisfied with the current state of affairs, how much is the vetting process by the guardian council? the a major problem here because ultimately when you look at the list of the candidates who look at the environment itself, you've got

a clear sense of the choices choices. narrowing here in iran. it is always a debate and it is a problem. but i think it is important to keep in mind that the united states, the data, especially in 2009 in western countries trying to interfere in the running elections into and especially in 2009 and the pressure and media which is funded by the wes and base and the less as always, try to influence the elections in one way or another either by telling people to vote in a certain way or not to vote in a certain way or not to vote at all or attacking particular people. so, when the united states in 2016, at least one of the many in the political establishment claimed that russia, what was interesting in your selections you had for years of time says so. so it's in the political establishment and in the united states,

in the case of you run the united states as a much larger power than the running in the west. when it interferes any runs, it creates greater caution. so the system begins to become more cautious. it is more cautious about certain candidates who have connections abroad or with certain political parties abroad. so the united states and europeans, if, if they're sincere about democracy and they're not, i mean genocide and gods. and i think as expos, everything. but if they were since hear about democracy, the 1st thing that they would do would be to stop interfering and iranian internal affairs. and then i think you would automatically see things opened up as we saw in 2009 roecat debates. it was a really fantastic environment until after the elections and then we have riots and we're still we're still experiencing the consequences of that. and okay, i'm always ross on the that can send by the political establishment just to find

disqualifying the independence, the liberals, the centrist members of the reform coalition, to the point where people are saying that this to just tilting the ground for the conservative to take over once again, well, i think 2 things are going on at the my way to the 1st place. this is a, a double election. this is an election for the assembly of experts as well. just comes around every 8 years. and that is the assembly that will be quite probably responsible for choosing or uh, being part of the choosing of the next. so supreme leader because the supreme later comedy is he's elderly and he's ill. and so the chances of him making it past the next 8 years are diminishing. so it's a, an opportunity for the conservatives to put into place. i think

people that the current leadership feels are responsible and that they can count on and that are part of their in groups that will be able to then um, according to their, a remit choose somebody or a group of people that will run the country in the future, and that's a major change in, in the countries um next uh, future steps. and i think that the 2nd point that i wanted to make what a country is looking at a major structural change. and we've seen this in many different countries as not just any ron, the entire system goes into a point of being less flexible, being um, focused on trying to set the tell them for the next stage. and so it is focus much, much less on bringing in different people bringing in experiments of approach. and

i think we're seeing that stratification very much. any ron at the moment while at the same time, the conservative. so trying to consult date and take out the unpredictability for their next step and none of what future lives that have for the a position when they see themselves basically ejected from this practice. and the conservatives the consider dating back with on the on paula in iran. and let me 1st ask what position you mean? are you referring to, let's say opposition factions with any of on that are trying to is yeah. transaction. yeah. the se, in particular, a m. yeah, look at, i think it's, it's quite clear that the, the, let's say the reformist and moderate moderate factions, part of their demise if we want to put it this way, have to do with the disqualifications with the unfair political environment in many

respects. but part of it is also due to their performance, and i would go as far as to say that even if less of their candidates have been disqualified, i am not even sure that they would have been able or that they would be able to mobilize the constituents, in a similar way that we didn't see that in the past presidential election or before that the parliamentary election. so i think what, what really needs to happen in the, let's say, reform is the model. it's kim, there are still a remnants of that that are competing in tomorrow's elections. but of course it's a very, very weak and political group that we'll need to, to put its act together to generate a new generation. in fact. and of course, the political establishment has to open up, has to allow more space for them to, to have these new generation of politicians. and let me also very briefly come to

the point that was referred to earlier by both mohammed and iraq, santa, which is. and in fact, we are dealing with a very securitized political context. you to a transition phase in terms of potential future succession. but also because of the, the high tension that exists between the wrong and external actors. and that leads to this closed political space for a car increasing how much say, assistance i've done. i talked about the rising tension in the region particular between the americans and, and the everybody is, is putting policy an issue that could the, the shape of the outcome of the election. we've seen senior iranian officials, including kindly harmony, basically saying that the warning cause is a reason why they have you have to show up in mass and those in this election. yes, what i should point down, but he is quite healthy, but to be the collections for the the council of experts as they call it that uses

to meet or of course are very important. but yes, foreign policy too is key at the moment because the region is experiencing with pay a major crisis. and we will probably see an expansion of the war, whether it's in the high square, the genocide will become worse or this way the wishing me in order to escape defeat . they will expand the war into lab and on and carry out their atrocities there. and of course, the run is the only government internationally recognized government that is supporting the resistance and gaza, the resistance and the non and the government and sign on and so on. so for a run, it is a very sensitive moment to that, and it is very important for iran to be seen as a strong. and for example, the, during the anniversary of the revolution,

there was a large turn out and they was the leaders, the leaders and the private in to misspeak or parliament. and everyone was calling people to come to the streets because they felt that a huge presence on the streets of camera on would be sending a message to the west. the problem that we have in this region is that we don't live in a normal region. we live in a region where the united states and that's how i live, manipulates, they turn countries against one another, they and they, they destroy, and the supports genocide. so for a wrong to be seen strong internally is very important. however, i should stress that parliamentary elections any wrong if there's a turn out, let's say of roughly 50 percent. that would be considered a good under the circumstances. but in general, parliamentary elections, as i said earlier, have a turn out that are less than the presidential elections. and as i said in particular in major cities and particularly run their turn out is always going to be low because of the complementary. he said that the system of election that they

for imposed where you have to vote for tens of people, literally a roxan of those who are all going to take part in the election. and those who will stay decide to stay away. to what extent, with the warning does have the potential for a while and to be drawn into a major confrontation with united states of america. be a fact to that could decide whether to go and vote or stay at home. i don't think it's a huge factor ice as i, i think discuss the economy is much more immediate. i think the element of being engaged in a government that might make a difference if they've voted. i don't think people feel that they have any control and that their vote will deliver any real benefits. i think the element of casa and the region is actually more important to the leadership. and it's because of an interesting paradox that's taking place briefly that iran is in many ways because

it's of its support for palestinians and palestine speaking very much to the error of the street. so we're seeing it throughout the region that runs messages, resonating with the, with the populations that who's on leadership are actually approaching the situation rather differently. and yet, interestingly, it's the bronze population that is not supporting its own government that much. so we, we see a dichotomy here, and i think that's where that issue was playing out rather than really affecting people's choices to go to the pulse. and then i will send a one point briefly on what happens. yes, good to please go ahead. go ahead. so i, i agree that the main issue is the economy. that's absolutely correct. but polls any rotten also show that the iranians overwhelmingly support the people or

palestine and gaza and the support the run supporting them. there is a division. any ronnie about that? but the strong majority do support the ross policy in that regard, but it doesn't give the government to an excuse. so for the performance and obviously not briefly, if you don't mind the assembly of ex best, but he's going to be also a elect to the $88.00. the see, some of the body is going to be a crucial moment. is it going to be the next assembly to this slide, the next success of the supreme data? i mean, look at it's, and it's kind of, it's not going to be, is that one critical moment, but it's definitely going to be important in the sense that it is another in another step in a certain direction. it's very, very difficult to say what the formal process process processes would be like once should that be to, to define that decision about the future of the supreme, the just position. and it is clear just to, to say that of course, it is

a very sensitive time, and it is important to make sure that the people are chosen into this assembly. this is the government's view or the establishment view. then people are represented in this, in this body that will be able to shape the country in the direction that is in line with the political establishment, thoughts. so there is, there is no real questions, no real risk allowed, no real and arbitrary. and this shouldn't be left there. this is obviously far too sensitive. how many bonded locks on a 5 month on my end, and i'd non profit. i really appreciate you inside looking forward to talking to you in the future. thank you. it was like you to watch it, you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website and jesse raw, dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a ga inside story. you can also join the conversation on x, all 100 is at a j inside study from the house you model and the whole team here in the bye for

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to protect and save different programs such as when you rise to an alternative view of the world today. on ologist. yes, the the the other one so that it's good to have you with us. this is the news. our life from bill coming up in the program. this hour is really snipers and tanks open. fire on crowds of civilians and gaza while they were waiting for food. over $100.00 palestinians are killed. medical staff, a guy says al shift the hospital say they are over whelmed. treating those who survived the massacre. israel sees is hundreds of high.