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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  March 12, 2024 3:30am-4:01am AST

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the most of your mfc, our team successfully deliver your charity to those who need it most across the mostly mild, we are feeding building, tearing julie, planting, fuel refined, teaching, and helping transform lives. this is messy in action. this is human appeal. hi francis calls for talks and an end to the war, and you cried. comments rebuffed by keys, but welcomed in moscow. the war which is called thousands of lives continues with little movement by either side, should ukraine tool or find to own. this is the inside story, the color,
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the and welcome to the program. i'm joe know how the war and ukraine has cost tens of thousands of lives and rages on just over 2 years off the rush is invasion. you creating forces are fighting with weapon supplied by the west and what's become the largest military engagement against russian forces in europe since world war 2. so i'm sorry, the fighting is at a stalemate, but the conflict remains of all the time. the danger in the heart of europe, russia is president for the me, a puts in his again was the west, but he's prepared to use nuclear weapons if the force is a used against his country. now the leader of the catholic church pipe, francis is quoting for peace negotiations, saying, raising the white flag for talks, takes courage. whose comments have been sharply rebuked by ukraine is a cool to surrender, but have been welcomed in moscow. so who's right is their merits, and what the pope has said, is it time to talk, or should ukraine back by its wisdom, allies fight to on and do the pope's views reflect thinking on the ukraine won't be on the earth in the us and the so called global south will be that discussing this
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and more with guests in just a few moments. but 1st this report from image and kimber. i'm what the pope actually said. and the reaction to is remarks a pipe francis, the leader of the catholic church has urged an end to the ukraine rule installed of negotiations. it's a position differing from ukraine, the u. s. and it's nato allies in the european union. we're not by renee or the would negotiate is a courageous would when you see that your defeated, when things aren't going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate. will make the shame. but how many will end up dead from this will. and he criticized the argument of self defense. so i am, boy, how many did you say that you have this responsibility to defend yourselves? but then you realize that they have to bomb the others. that's not defending, that's destroying. and look what a will brings. death, destruction, children without parents. the pope's views have been sharply criticized in ukraine,
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ukrainian presidency. lensky alluded to the pope's comment, saying, all religions and ukraine are united in fighting russia. yeah, chapel boards, but i think every ukrainian chaplain who supports the army. this is what happens when the church is with the people, not 2 and a half 1000 kilometers away, somewhere to mediate virtually between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you. the cranium for administer demitra, coo labor, said that a strong person gets done with a good relative. i'm negotiating. the criticism of the pope's comments also came from poland for administer, not fee, as president and the head of the ukrainian greek catholic church. so here, which has good relations with like russia and ukraine, has again, also to mediate tools and a piece somebody was being planned in switzerland without russia being invited. when we there by trumpet, stomach, you, we do not see russian representatives of this summit. we do not see how we can
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invite people that destroy and kill everything we want results. we want adjustment, peters adjusted piece for ukraine. so 1st, the civilized countries of the world will develop a plan achieve results and then involve representatives from russia. those who are ready for adjusted piece will digital ukraine's liter maintains that piece will not come at the cost of any of these countries. so for in territory on the bottle field, there's little movement on the front lines. apply and do crating and offensive last year made little impact on heavily defended russian lines. president vladimir putin suppose is hold parts of the east and crimea, which was annexed in 2014 and repeatedly launch ms. sullivan joined a tax. when you craning and cities political bottles in washington could have a big se, and what happens next? the squaring opposition from us, republican politicians, to the high cost of funding the will who wins the us presidential rice may also
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have a big impact with ukraine and it's european allies, feeling what might happen to nato and us support. if donald trump wins re election imaging kimber, i'll just 0 inside story. the. well, that's bringing a panel now in the ukraine capital key. if we have followed him, it gave him a then coach. he's chief editor of ukraine world with james to explain new kinds of politics and society to an international load is in russia's capital, moscow public. fagan how is an independent rushing forward policy analyst? under the english city of boss, patrick bureau re, is a defense and security analyst, the senior electra at the university of boss and a former british army officer. welcome old to inside story. and as the media and the like, let me begin as is appropriate in this discussion with you and i want to just remind you of pipe francis's comments in that interview with switched television and on saturday he urged the parties to negotiate and to do so quote before things
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get worse, and he said, the ukraine should have the courage to raise the white flag your response to that. well, it's, it's of course inappropriate. so for uh, for polk to say that ukraine has to have garbage to raise the white flag because it was red in ukraine as the, as a coal for computerization and for surrender. and it's indeed very, very strange to hear these words from, from the po, from the chief of the church who is actually has to have just a very clear vision. what is good and what is evil when? when a country like russia enters ukraine and, and bombards every day, cd leon's, kids, and women, and elderly, and residential houses. and believe me, i know what i'm saying because i've just returned from here. so on which has a seat on the front line, i go to the front line every every months and several times times per month,
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i see the, the suffering of the ukrainians. ukraine goes want peace. of course. they want these much more than that. anybody else in the world, the but they want just be so they want not occupation that they want to not frustrate occupation, not russian forces who just put the people in the, in the and in the, in the, in prison and torturing them. what is happening right now on the occupied churches? and i do think that people like full premises have to be aware of that. well, the comments never the less will be received in moscow. pablo felt going to have the kremlin giving them the some is up to tier offering to mediate talks, the global south, these in favor of it into the war. they've seen their economies effective global food security in jeopardy. but in terms of where president putin stands on this,
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he may want to talk, but there's no sign whatsoever. it can be willing to give any ground the tool, let alone try to find some middle ground and talks the most for from the beginning of this more, more or less from agrees to march 22 of the russian grammar nutrition position was basically the us kind of in a ceasefire was very much possible present the book and mention recent, we had again that there was a tentative agreement to achieve that in march 22 talks and is down in this stumble between the direction of the premiums and that would be a basis because it being based. ready for more permanent ceasefire optometry, based on the more or less line of control as it is or as it was then or as it is right now. so that's why russia would want. and the yes also of course of pleasures
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of ukraine decreasing it's roundtree. and then not appraising out the average i made so that that would be sufficient to kind of call it a ceasefire for the time be. and so, so known as the so called a korea plans like in the inquiry is to have a ceasefire based of the wireless control more or less like that. so yes, that's something that russia would walk you crazy, refuses to accept believing that this could be only a temporary solution, like the end of the april if you rush up, cause for repairing its forces for maybe another. a lot of attacks us here at the coming up, but of course the ceasefire as we said rush, so there's the same kind of cut off. who do i mean, who?
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sure. the very sort of a good piece is better than a good 5. so yes, for better 5 months to kind of cool at that data right now. then continue this page back though. that's right now seems to be going nowhere where it's probably worth remembering before i bring in patrick to read that. that line of control in terms of a crooked face that you describe, involves you credit and giving up silver and territory territory that was in nobody's doubt, was ukraine's before 2014 patrick berry. before we talk more about the substance of the war, the pros and cons of fighting on bring us up to date, give us a sense. i know it's a big question, but give us a sense of whether we're actually stands. ukraine has lost some ground recently. there are signs of rush or advancing in some areas. the tipping point seems to be ukraine's di shorty, to munition and longer range missile weaponry. yeah, that's correct. uh,
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i think the, you know, to, to close automated the landscape, russia in the winter. i'm a g, you know, is a good way to start thinking, oh, i haven't had an operational level breakthrough. it's not really have it's being fighting recently. and it's hard to achieve the breakthrough by far in the, in the secret because there's so much survey that has been jobs and satellites, except to the size of the defensive or, or is it in a sense and it's hard to break through. but in the, within the powered on the initiative, the manager means with most at the moment as being this timeline. the western a coming in it should have started coming in in september or october. you know, on, on, russian essentially put its economy on 75 percent. when it started to turn, i'd stall and have some energy equipment and get some, uh, get into that room and it tired. he's also learning and starting to learn at
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mitchell long down in the early stages of the war. and so that's now and so ukrainians are under pressure, but it hasn't broken yet. and the question is, can the russian was mass and brain tree somewhere in the coming months or not, but they are putting them under pressure on the plus side for the finance. they basically destroyed or damaged a lot of the black sea fleet force to combine or to be relieved. and they're getting a grain died from, from the side of which is good. and they've done that seem to push for the air defense assets by taking out a lot of russian fighters and other strategically valuable aircraft recently that they may have lost some patriots on reading recently as a result of doing that. and they are highly valuable change. so the russians are getting into a better targeting lupin the word type thing that time. uh, so it's finding in the balance. but the crucial thing is, is, is a, you know, we asked me to west russian speed on march. the west, just not doing what it's promised to do and certainly not do it quickly enough. so the picture, the rest of the slow moving front lines, a grinding,
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a criminal rule out of out failed. and how the attitude in moscow would be what sure to peace negotiations that, that russia has more man, it has more weaponry, it has more time. and that ukraine is running out of all 3, a sort of bound. right. well, what's the issue is much bigger country and it has the much bigger population and the much bigger defense industry in her mouth, right? mostly from the soviet union. and also of course you frame is under russian warm range of that pressure miss. i was can fit any target, and then a partner, ukraine. ukraine built the come up page that deep into russia though they had been increasing their attacks using the most of the home, a drones attacking deeper into russia. russia, there has an advantage though a rush of air force does not fly through over the front line. it doesn't attack in
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you create a saving you russians for air force as they didn't syria after a 2015 where they were highway fast. if that's not working, then you crate. okay, that's the, that's also a very serious problem. so both sides have problems, those kinds of problems with the 2nd type b, that's why the, that's why there's a, uh, a stalemate because both sides have serious problems. below, do me, i'm going to ask you about additional problems that may exist within ukraine that perhaps the pope speaking about them opens a debate that people are thinking, but not necessarily saying i want to ask you about tensions within ukraine, within ukrainian society. because i've been there and i've seen the vibrancy and the energy of life in the big cities and the falls on the cafe is of the pack for the people. and i've seen and heard the tensions exist between people who are
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willing to lay their lives down and go to the front lines of people who perhaps are less willing. is there a creeping sense of pessimism now in ukraine that perhaps this war is not winnable? well, of course tensions exist and they will always exist in the society which is in the war. because on the one hand you have a big consolidation of this a site too. but on the other hand, you definitely have the oldest cracks within the society that you just described because of everything depends on the level of personal investment and personal sacrifice. and of course, this is very different different because depending on the family, depending on the, on, on ethics analogy. but frankly speaking, i don't see that fatigue and the exhaustion that sometimes is like imposed on ukraine for present in, in, in some, for in capitals. when people talking about this fatigue, i see the decisiveness of these great society. i see the,
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the readiness of the people who are not on the front line to contribute for their resources with their time, with their whole attaining work full for the big chain. i personally just can testify that we are doing a lot of volunteer work to help the army as civilians and i don't have, i don't find any problems. when i, for example, try to get donations from, from the people. now, coming back to these war question, we need to understand very, very clearly that russia can say, of course, that let's negotiate, let's have this green scenario, whatever else we need to understand. this is for a game from the russian side. this is all these. and then this is all, this is a joe boy to code this information because of all the see the want partition of your credit. and this is what they clearly say they, they want partition of you credit or the they want really to control ukraine. so
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warranty, and they want to go farther, they want to have much bigger plans, and they clearly save these plans in, in the propaganda about, you are of the about other parts of the world, the more the supper and give the rest of the bar is dates it is expending, it tries to expend constantly, militarily, and when it is not expending, it has a fear that it will collapse. this is what is driving for. it's not not a question about this particular territory. this particular time we need to understand that this is this driving force in the russian expansion using that, these boulders, the new board, there's to josh who wants to join that they will not be stable. russia wants to go farther and farther again. okay, well, we'll come to that question with pabo in just a moment. but as you said, staying with the war, what i really want to ask you is if you want confidence, the idea of negotiation sent in a, it's easy to understand. why can you draw
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a line from this point towards a point where you crane forces rushes capitulation on the battlefield? can you see that happening? well, it's all depends, of course, on, on the willingness of, of the pregnant people, but also on the billing this. oh, for all the partners of ukraine now we, we, we don't see that much engagement of the partners. you mentioned the, the american problems. ringback but then the same time we see the increasing, like wake up in, in europe, i think, with regard to the russian invasion. because europe also understands that russia presents a theme and threats security threat toward sell for its own, for it's a little for its own unity. and we actually, we don't know what, what will happen, what will happen in the future. and what will happen in the school, what will happen with the russian establishment?
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everything is possible and i do think that the at least the ukrainians, when they deny the russian efforts to just destroy ukrainian solar and ukrainian territorial integrity. that will be a huge blow for these imperium, this, the ideas of russia. because really, i mean, when we're talking about problems of the bringing culture offensive, it's clear and your guest already also said that it's clear the dresser has huge problems as well. with this huge army, and this is so much people on the ground. and frankly speaking for the russian society, i just don't understand why it's not happening. 14 is killing as many russian citizens as ukrainian citizens or even for and that is true that that should be a huge moral problem for the russian society. what it does, i mean, if you'll forgive me, those are all the sounds as though a lot of what you're saying is hopeful,
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rather than necessarily pragmatic and realistic. let me put the question to patrick theory. do you see a line from this point towards russia's capitulation on the battlefield, given the divisions among the nato allies, given the evident inability of president biden, to released the 60000000000 dollar a package this side of the lex? no, indeed, no guarantee. it'll happen often with either. i mean, it's a situation. the site is the site it's, it's very difficult to see that i, the path to victory for ukraine would be got it all cda, coming in immediately and large random mobilization. uh, you know, a lot of western support this year go on the defensive and. busy and have another crack. 3 a larger, more, better plan, a longer trained crack against the russians in a certain sector next year. but what you're looking for from is an operational level breakthrough, which takes back to why we saw
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a chunk of that territory. and similar to maybe the, the 1st song i'll talk to you about that. but the problem is much more difficult to do that, but that is probably realistically their best option. and that's something changes politically, i'm not sure which looks like it's locked down. so it's something that they have, they might have succeeds flying by next year for instance. but you know, that still gives us the best part of 12 months of this grinding a traditional warfare that everybody's go to withstand. yeah, 16 is on, you know, you need a whole system behind that in terms of how do you deploying them on the logistics and all that they're not at that are certainly be useful asset. and we'll see how to do that. and, but the russians have good air plants as well. so you know, it's a wait and see, it will help. it will certainly give them airport run. that's probably what you're waiting on do and do it again bigger, longer trying. hopefully they're called liberty yet another quick tax is going to be center town. yeah. but how about uh,
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let me bring up that question that little to me. it raised a moment ago. it's the question of appeasement. it's. it history is pretty instructed website on what happens when you a piece and a dresser, the idea of negotiations, the idea of giving into polluted. does he want to go further? does he want more? does he want to expand his appetite for post soviet conquests? you know, well there are different voices coming out of moscow and different opinions. uh, maybe it would be you there. many would like that to happen. but i don't see that there might very much, realistically because the a 2 year conference with you. great. and there's no right now and media and to that inside has seriously print to the russian for, i think capabilities are great for in the pence of action. it will pay 2 years and years after this conflict then,
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and then the kind of meaningful way for russia to be as re d for offensive fashion. then as it was, an adult began in february 22. right? now of course it's again march. that means it's spring time common and therefore a couple of months it's going to be no major offensive fashions are possible because there's going to be a see of there. then comes the funding of the summer fighting season, an extended summer finding season where both sides will try to knock a serious blow on each other. maybe possibly break through pressure one to break through. and then the breakthrough and then the word that most likely may happen or may not and will be another summer. or it may be another summer of in the size of blood the stalemate. but the water is not then think of then the most likely
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on that, but after the next few years will be again of love. you still my most likely because for some kind of negotiation on the basic basis of state, this quote will become stronger and that so then this conflict the title before i give the final word to follow to me and just just update us on the sense that the claimant has a put in has that sanctions of biting that he wants to be released from this. i selection in global affairs. how much of that plays into the idea that negotiations, quote, the official russia says that the things ok, sanctions are not working. we are adopting rushes, adapting in the lots of things that are being done successfully, but there are serious and growing problems and also with defense production of the to produce enough weapons. and that's where you weapons. so yes,
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uh pause is me that i think that we understood and some kind of and for the, for this fighting ship come. okay, hold on a minute. i want to put this to you among the popes, comments where these speaking about conflict in general, including israel's war on guys that he said negotiations on never a surrender. it is the coverage not to carry a country to suicide, which begs the question to you. how far is too far in defending ukraine under the circumstances, you know, but let me re address the question. so if we are talking about negotiations, how is it different with what happened to in 2014, in 2015 when we had negotiations with 14 and when we had these agreements and then put, you violated this disagreements and accumulated his forces for suspend one further and let us, you know, come back to history. if you think about history,
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if you look at history, you know that every partition of ukraine leads to partition of poland, for example. and, and the baltic states and russia's father entry into the, into the european culture to this. so this what happened instead of just to ensure this has happened in the 20th century, even more so the partition of ukraine and the partition of poland and the 20th century link to partition of germany for example. so, and the question is ok, russia is very weak and it will not go forward. well, let's look at the end of the 20th century. during the bolshevik time, russia was really we very weak of to the missile, but the huge accumulated forces and just divided to europe into 2 parts after the 2nd world war. so i think the, the, the real question should be whether we are able to stop putting, who is a new 21st century fascism which is really changing the rules of the game around
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the world. and making a new board. there's a new state really unprotected or we can't. we don't stop him now and therefore the world and thank you for a century will look very, very different compared to the previous because i'm going to cycle my guess. now, the melancholy pablo sale going out and patrick, beauty, and thanks to you for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story can also join the conversation on x handle is as a inside story for me, joe, and a hold of the whole team here. good bye for now, the the latest news as expressed. several philistines were killed as they were trying
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it's troubling for you. it's very, very painful here. the story on talk to how does era, the hello i'm down, jordan doha, with the correct amount of the top stories here on alger 0. israel's bombardments of guns that continues as a muslim holy month of ramadan begins. thousands of civilians have been killed including 17 members of the same household. and as the 2 building 31000 palestinians have been killed since october. the number of palestinians of stuff to death has now risen to 25 and talk a dowry reports now from viet i'll follow with palestinians who do have access to food. and now foster break that fast amid the rebels. this is how palestinian
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families are spending the 1st day of ramadan, having a star on the rubble of the.

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