yes, so you don't need to to we delivered in remedies and breaks. we've touched lives in you in this holy month. the power of kindness grew up in the joy of breaking fox and the footprint. we remember the blessings we all meant to share. for that, do a sacred play is now your duty to fulfil all that can possibly be this man most military losing control a series of daring attacks by rebel groups to see this a turning point. the country has been in tow miles since a q 3 years ago. so it's me, i'm on a pause to allow civil war. and what would that mean for the region? this is inside store the hello get on change. phase man, mazda military government has suffered significant defeats of the hands of antique

who opposition groups in recent weeks. in the past week carlin fights has seized a vital town on the border with toy land and all the resistance miller shall have attacked the capital using drones laden with explosives. so what's next for the military, june test, it deals with the security challenges and do the recent gains revel groups of made represented turning point for me on my we'll discuss all these questions with our panel of guests in a moment. but 1st, this report from victoria gate and b, the mammals made a tree, seized power in 2021, carrying out a qu against the democratically elected government to bank, sang sushi. ever since the giantess faced the position to it through boss in the past 6 months, the fighting has intensified and become a wide spread. most recently, a strategically important town on the board with thailand has fallen under revo control. hundreds of government troops guarding me why do you have reportedly

surrendered? it's the latest in a string of loss is the most minute treat, giving hopes to the government to next. so the john to can be defeated. this is a major blow of them. yeah, i'm our military hotel, this is the largest most important of the 6 official, ty burma border crossings. give you an idea of the perspective between april 2020, 23 and march 2024, over a 1000000000 us dollars. and bilateral trade was conducted through this checkpoint, career and finances and all that and the minute 3 groups united in october to seize territories and kitchen states in the north chin in the west. and mon, in the south, the highlighted regions were once on the phone with a tree control, but have shrunk since the clue 3 years ago as the fighting increases. so do the number of those taking safety. do you and says maybe 3000000 people have been displaced and around 30000000 don't have enough food. that's one ways to cool to the population. as a conflict continues to escalate. as a human attorneys intensify and with the monsoon season,

just around the corner time is of the essence for the people of me and more. they cannot afford for us to forget. they cannot afford to wait many a concern that after its recent losses, most military will fight back with a philosophy the will not specifically in lives. victoria gave some b, l, g 0. so inside story, the, well, let's discuss all of this much more now is all guess. today we have to know more of the founder of progressive voice. the policy was such organization that advocates for democratic me on mall and an old winning human rights activist in bangkok, control as an independent consultant who works towards peace, security, and human rights. in me, i'm on the way to region. and in new york city is nicholas becca. and a visiting fellow at the yale law schools pool side china center and the veterans specialist on human rights in asia. thank you all of you for joining us. so we are now more than 3 years off to the military to and if i, a year ago,

ma said what was going on in the country. i think most people would have said it was a depressing stalemate with the military june to controlling the majority of the country in um, groups battling just in certain areas. but in recent months, things seem to have really changed. explain to me what's been going on. well, the ministry hunter now has a very little control over the country, effective functional, while the national unity government and the alliance, the ethnic revolutionary forces, the altogether winning more and more territorial control and administration, setting up the services for the people. so it's a very different landscape in the way many, pretty much the whole world again, the last 3 years thought this country is back end of this. i am fits of the military again, but that's not the case. and in fact,

actually that the democratic revolution resources, or the democratic resistance movement inside winning and the ministry is at the very verge of ought to be collapsing. and again, that's something that's the well, never thought this military will actually fall apart. but that the ministry is so weak and the i should be at the village, both following the thought and collapsing. so it's just, it is to make a break point also, where the people, a democratic resistance movement is advancing with their, uh, uh, political to, to set up to has to be a new democratic, a federal democratic me and my okay came, if we look at the events of recent months and i've been looking through exactly what's been taking place, but you've been following it much close to the may. it seems that the date, the 27th of october, seems to be potentially a turning point because that's when the new operation began. operation 1027, named because of the date. tell us about that operation i'm wanted achieved. yes,

sir. little gratian. 727 was led by 3 s named revolutionary armies. but until then had kind of main size, the size of one funding as extensively for a while. and then they initiated this operation where they are kind of a huge box or northern shan state which borders china. and this happened with some degree of blessing from china. this was planned, the models, they had to accumulate a lot of munitions to one to take it. and the main reason was that they or sites are part and crouching down all these take, butchering kind of cyber style guidance, run by a chinese try as the basic imposes. so that creates a space for them to do this operation that they noticed. i've repeatedly stated that that goal is to take the military on to and they've also been organizing a lot with other resistance groups that have been fighting since the crew and some of these action economies of been fundamentally opposed to me and mom industry

rules for many many decades, so a lot of different actors the found the calling purpose on the board. amazing, much more extensively to to target huge both of the country. okay. nicholas just focus on not bit about the cyber scams and paint book sharing. because china, i think, had been very, very unhappy about what been going on on explore, to tell me about that aspect and whether you think china actually helped these rebel groups either tacitly or actively. yeah, i mean my is the major headache for aging. um and uh, china didn't welcome the crew. they sort of stay on defense for a few months. but after a year they decided that the military one was actually the government in charge and they had to engage with it. the problem is that the one task control, one other, you know, most history is a, it's very imperfect right?

there are 3 pillars of the power of the type them, i don't know why need, how much stage are you control? this has gone down significantly into everything in the north, how much money you have in the cover. this is going down significantly because they can't sell as much gas out and they don't have as much investment from china as they use. and then how popular you are in the country or how fearful people off of the rule. and this is also going down. so china has seen in disability and young uh, as a major concern. another concern, as you mentioned, is the fact that criminal gangs have settled across the border from china to run and is cyber scams. when they traffic people. the trick people into working into is a cyber centers where they treat people run gambling operations. and these have

a huge cost for chinese citizens and, and people who are being scammed and lose a lot of money, not to mention people was sort of force. and so some of the martin slavery to what they're so basically decided that something had to be done and has came said created the space for the ethnic group. i think groups to sort of take over a rest the number of these gangs and send them back to china. now the political side of this is that who is the person who actually gave control to this region and gave was safe haven to this as a cyber criminal gags. it's me on letting himself, when he was the he is going to need, he's the leader of the gym to just to be clear to help us now. and today is the leader of the who and so i think, you know, politically, this is very uncomfortable for the who and because it shows that page, it will not protect me online at all costs. so staying more just for now. what on

board and adoption the 2nd but to the, to the chinese border, china then forced a cease far as i understand it between the june to end these groups. meaning these groups have locked in that control of this border area. how damaging is this for the june, for the june to given, not just militarily what they've lost, but also economically for them, because this is a vital trade route as i understand it. oh, it is a great loss for sure. and um, also like let's also let us remember that they submit it to them to actually use forces to say in almost tucker, due to economic functions from different parts of the world. where they are actually using a lot of, you know, like including the investment and where they are made many flows to them are being caught. so it's just, it's, it's a combination of that this you losing that trade rob as well as these targeted

economic pressure. so these, it is definitely a great loss for them. and um, it is also, it is where they become much, much, much more weaker when it comes to, you know, like, uh, also taking uh, the taking control of how, how they want to take control is become more and more, more impossible for the also because the loses the trade route as well as the targeted economies tucker that he caught on exemptions from like you and us and kind of i am as okay, because if you can take the story on for us, it widens out, doesn't take the rebel groups in all the parts of the country and now guessing games. we've got to rock kind state. we've got recently on the tie. i mean, on my board, i'd tell us what's happened recently. it was simply that the, uh, read the force there i have taken control of what is the uh, 2nd largest ports, land ports. uh for a trade um waist highland,

is it not being completely formalized, but the uh, the military there as already agreed that they would surrender and that they know that were shooting the drums as, as, as lots of i checked in new york, we have a, a 12 hour time difference, and this is huge because this is an enormous amount of revenue that the trade that flows. so it does border, it will also the low id on groups to sort of increase their operations that support their ability to provide medical treatments to that. so they want to do this on the as well wanted and so on and so forth. but it's symbolically, it's also a huge blow to the military that we shouldn't advert state this either. because i think this is a, a particularly i'll never was wor onto the civilians, right? we have 30000 people killed probably since the cooling 2021,

we have 8 to 10 to 15. they have to know civilians death. the military basically tactic is to terrorize disability against a bunk bed, a from the airplanes to torture and killed them in detention. so this is a very, very vicious wolf, but the tower doesn't seem to be working. and i think that is something that ultimately a would be a full line wave in the top of my go itself, which is, you know, the only way that the, the, the country can move forward is if there is a division within the army. unfortunately, some of the original actors do not want this. so we mention china, but russia is also there and providing a lot of military weapon and support them off thailand would not blah, i do see too much chaos on his border. india either. and none of these

countries want to have the west coming back in the country. so the problem with this conflict, as many conflicts around the world is not so much the domestic situation, which is great, atrocious. but it's the fact you have so many external actors that do not have staking the welfare and of the population. i think that's where the international community and the you and have to step up. it's been on the galactic a conflict for the last few years. kim, how would you describe what is currently going on? is this a civil war, or is it a revolution against the military? i think the revolution is perfectly upset and for this because the main things is happening is that this has been driven from the bottom up. they so began with mass strikes of the civil service, huge numbers of elected politicians. and 94 lines is where the service side, 2 groups waiting, organizations, all kinds of different stakeholders that being fundamentally opposed to military

role. i'm not certainly could not bad at all, going back and they slide into estimate resistance organizations and all those. what are those are rugs is that gold are often characterized as just interested in their autonomy. actually, most of them are pretty ambitious revelation. we bought schools focused on federal democracy, changing rights of the people website long because that goes, i suffered for so many decades under military rule. and so i think that really has tre, turn away today, which has been attempted in previous generations. but now we're talking on social media, and that's being a real change of heart for many different people. but this is now the time to really rise up. and for a lot of the leaders, particularly the elected politicians, they never really charge to go into an old revolution as it was, it really happens from the bottom uh, i started many people so that likes being lost, track sounds, begun on product testers. i'm just these extremely sadistic, particularly evil kind of methods. there were seen from the military of created

a range strong response. i'd say for at least the yeah, one of the main stakeholders. and finally finally believed that they can wait a minute this time. and i think that's been a really big change and that's what's bro, all kinds of different actors into coming about this. even though some of them have different ideologies, different backgrounds, and in many cases, different kinds of national identities, different languages and everything. but as a release of this time, if they work together, the military can finally be removed. so it's absolutely absolutely a revolutionary management. and i think if it's successful or even if it's not success, so we know besides, there's obviously no way the country can go back to how i was before. so i think it was a serious transformation of politics underway, which is in some ways more significant even in what we see on the battlefield. and let me bring you in on that point. so many different groups. and you had kim then say they will have slightly different the aims. is this potentially a problem?

they all agree what they all against the military june to, but do they all agree, what they all for and down the line, could this be problematic? well, this is the 1st time all people from different federal and different ethnic, different religion, these communities ever had a chance to come together so that it is actually the process all coming together. so when they come together, this is the time that they are also like, you know, already split up the road map, political role met what kind of federal democracy that we want to establish. so i think this is not something to be worried because yes, you're right. you know, they all have a very common goal. all removing this military and bring the like to like to hold this military to account and all of that. but at the same time, that is a very common political vision that is already laid out in what we call s federal

democracy charter. and that is the baseline way. these different ethnic communities, different minorities majorities altogether. i've still been oppressed and the by this minute 347 to gauge now have a chance to come together. so a lot to discuss, but this is really, is the greatest chest that i'll be ever had with people. i actually bought a building this new young bought new, federal credit union law in the time of this act floor of the terror company that ministry is actually launching and guess, i guess the, so i'm not worried even though that is a time that people need to actually come together in this nation building process, but the chest that they are getting. this is the most important thing that the i actually work into pens and has in the much stronger coordination that, that you will see in the last 2 years. for example,

nicholas bottles all around the edges all around the borders, which is very worrying for anyone who's trying to control a country as the june to all. i want assumes these rebel forces. now try to move to the center, move to the open areas. tell us why the middle of the street on doing back to here because they have more fall apart. they, they have more arms, they have superior artillery. they have a dominance. why are they currently losing? but i think one of the key issue these troops, morales, i think that the, the morality in the army is, um, you know, very, very shaky because they have lost the people that are clearly on the sign. i mean, the, i know constituency that he's for the military who died anymore. that really is the major difference with this is co, is that no one is in favor. the other thing is that in the previous era, when to meet the recent earring which to when that was the power they benefited

from the gas boom. they were new a gas field that were found in the indian ocean, particularly in the show, a gas filled in, in child fuel, in the indian ocean ocean. and they've built a pipeline that put this gas from child people one day, the notion to china, and that created an enormous amount of revenue to find companies total and others invested at thailand. both a lot of asked for the northern part of the country and that sort of supported the who and has ruled and they weren't able to distribute and economy benefits to that cronies and within the army. but it is not the case anymore. there's way gas built is running out all the major companies. i've gone out and there are sanctions, which are, you know, not oh, they're not what they should be because the general have still able to put

a lot of money, bro. thoughts in singapore and do buy in thailand and so on, but it is uh, it is sort of hurting that operation. and therefore they don't have enough money to keep people on on, on this side. and the biggest evidence we have of this is that they have no resorted to conscription, which is furiously unpopular, but they're gonna round up. people forced them to fight poorly. they've never shown any care for the foot sold us. and this is why they sort of resort students very violent tactics against civilians and also the use of a few crack troops. right. and you have a few correct types of why to leave very well trained, but they're really killing machine because they don't of course, uh oh, be any of the international human during low religions. but even this, at this limits of one group that has proved to be very valuable on the military

from is this new wish group and came in. and i came all american talk about this, the american army in rock and states. and they've been able to link up with the us and the groups and build that military power and their link. they defeat after the seats in iraq kind of sites to the military who adopt which it automatically may also be a problem for a big company. and of the population here that we haven't mentioned yet, really he can go in and, and, and so there, you know, the fracture lines amount ethnic groups and that you mentioned, don't know, you know, they are a concern, a definitely something that you should be address, but at the moment, the one that really has nothing to offer in terms of the other way out. and that's why the international community has to step up. and i think after, you know, good terrorist and the un secretary general and the address community with sort of hoping that as the end the regional group would try to help. and now i said,

we've run to a point where none of this has as works and they need to be at an agreement and the vision for the future. and the higher level that enables, you know, china, russia, the un security council at india, thailand. and only if these actors sort of have an basic agreement that we'll be able to, to move forward. and i think that slight gutierrez, just name julie bishop, the phone, a foreign minister from australia has the new a special representative. just tried to sort of not show up the, the diplomatic activity, the other. okay. what to do with that? let me bring in more on that. what would you like to see the international community? do right now, what would you like to see julie bishop and her new role as an international envoy to i would really like to see the un security gone. so adult, a new resolution,

a binding resolution under the un charter chapter 7 to take action against this mandatory because that's the way to really and is an attorney and also, and the people separate on the grow where the people will have a chance to start building this federal democracy so much in the much of like, you know, sooner than later. well, also the international community where we actually see them to be dislikes on the ground. so that is a, sadly what we've been advocating for. but it's been very challenging because as you can imagine in china and russia in the un security council being the permanent member, having the veto power, always continue to be the supporting disability hunter, but also protecting the american hunter from being held accountable by international law. so that's why we are approaching the international community,

the government, individuals we're looking for, the champions of the democracy, who actually one to protect the name of the books to take a step to step up and really come together to put more pressure on disability hunter, particularly were calling for the aviation fuel cap, basically the we won the war to bass, all the evasion fuel and the division fuel chain. so that this military has no more. oh no, no. is that so the disability ones that cannot belong to be bought anymore? because that's the only thing that they have, not the only leverage the military hunter has over the, the bus revolution. so okay, so let me bring in can look quickly on, on those points because all you really going to get the international community in many ways, it's the un security council that can act when you go to china and russia there. i noticed that the security council meeting held about a week ago,

the russian ambassador described the june to as a longstanding friend in close pop. yeah, so think russia in particular is a major block at the moment. and i think the, the, i agree with the government, no, so you have to brush triple angles for that to happen. i think the whole year and the system is realizing that that kind of negligence, putting out, sit on the front of the situation despite how see i'm not being able to solve the issue as not locked. and that really is the need for agency among you and member staves to push something through. and yeah, there's already a lot of pressure on aviation you some of the steps of being taken, but it's nowhere near enough. so it really is a case of just closing down some of those remain loopholes. and so i can be extra steps because of the size, you know, the jugs has been around staying for her. you know, she can reach many locations from the ground that has huge problems. moving infantry troops around most of whom, off, you know,

veterans and retired. a lot of them and fully trained any way or now. so it's construct says nicholas, uh, so we really are at a point where you, jessica, military, it is becoming increasingly isolated said on bombing, wildly science, science or markets. it brings rising hospitals wherever they lose control. and much of the wow, it is just kind of shrugging converging. the whole thing goes way as a much more decisive action is needed because the right thing has been on hold for a long time. now there's no way really not ready to jump to reverse this, but the problem is that it's got this huge build up of trends over many decades. starts extremely difficult as to the faith also. so these laws extremely violent conflict. thank you very much to all guess today can. i'll kim joyce and nicholas beck a lot. you can find plenty of background on the situation to me and ma, with reports, video and analysis on our website outages or don't com. we'd like you of use to go

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