carriages families to finally discussed their costs, in the hope of sparing youth youngstown by breaking the cycle into generational trauma. my father knew and died. a witness documentary on which is era, is me on most military losing control, a series of daring attacks by rebel groups to see there's a turning point. the country is being into a model since a q 3 years ago. so it's me, i'm on a pause to allow civil war, and what would that mean for the region? this is inside store the hello get on change. phase man mazda military government has suffered significant defeats of the hands of antique who opposition groups in recent weeks. in the past week, current practice of sees the vital town on the border with thailand and all the

resistance. miller shall have attacked the capital using drones laden with explosives. so what's next for the military, june test, it deals with the security challenges and do the recent gains revel groups of made represented, turning point for me on my will discuss all these questions with our panel of guests in a moment. but 1st, this report from victoria gate and b, the mammals made the tree seized power in 2021, carrying out a qu against the democratically elected government to bank, sang sushi. ever since the giantess faced the position to it through boss in the past 6 months, the fighting has intensified and become more widespread. most recently, a strategically important town on the board with thailand has fallen under rebel control. hundreds of government troops guarding me. what do you have reportedly surrendered? it's the latest in a string of loss is the most minute treat, giving hopes to the government to next so that the john to can be defeated. this is

a major blow them in our military hotel. this is the largest most important of the 6 additional ty burma border crossings. give you an idea of the perspective between april 2020, 23 and march 2024 over a 1000000000 us dollars and bi lateral trade was conducted through this checkpoint . career and finances and all that. and the minute, 3 groups united in october to seize territories and kitchen states in the north chin in the west. and mon, in the south, the highlighted regions once on to full military control, but have shrunk since the crew 3 years ago as the fighting increases. so do the number of those seeking safety. the u. n says maybe 3000000 people have been displaced. and around 13000000 don't have enough food. that's one ways to cool to the population. as a conflict continues to escalate. as a human attorneys intensify and with the monsoon season, just around the corner time is of the essence for the people of me and more. they cannot afford for us to forget. they cannot afford to wait many

a concern that after its recent loss is most military. we'll fight back with a philosophy that will not specifically in lives. victoria gave some b, l, g 0. so inside story. well let's discuss all of this much more now is all guess. today we have to know more of the founder of progressive voice, the policy research organization that advocates for democratic me on law and an old winning human rights act to this, to bangkok, control as an independent consultant who works towards peace, security and human rights. in me, i'm on the way to region, and in new york city is nicholas becca. as a visiting fellow at the yale law schools pool side china center and the veterans specialist on human rights in asia. thank you. one of you for joining us. so we are now more than 3 years off to the military to and if i, a year ago, ma said what was going on in the country. i think most people would have said it

was a depressing stalemate with the minute to jump to controlling the majority of the country in um, groups battling just in certain areas. but in recent months, things seem to have really changed. explain to me what's been going on. well, the ministry hunter now has a very little control over the country, effective functional, while the national unity government and the alliance, the ethnic revolutionary forces, d, altogether winning more or more territorial control and administration setting of the services for the people. so it's a very different landscape in the way many are pretty much the whole world in the last 3 years thought this country is back end of this. i am says of the military again, but that's not the case. and in fact, i'm sure the, the, the democratic revolution resources, or the democratic resistance movement inside winning and the ministry is at the

very verge of all to be collapsing. and again, that's something that's the well, never thought this military will actually fall apart. but that the military is so weak and the i should be at the village both following the thought and collapsing. so it's, it, is that make a break point also, where the people democratic forces does movement is advancing with their political to, to set up to has to be a new democratic, a federal democratic me a month. okay, kim, if we look at the events of recent months and i've been looking through exactly what's been taking place, but you've been following it much close to the may, it seems that the date, the 27th of october seems to be potentially a turning point because that's when the new operation began. operation 1027, named because of the date. tell us about that. top peroration unwanted achieved. yes, sir. little gratian. 727 was led by 3 estimated revolutionary armies,

but until then had kind of main site. and so as far as a one finding out if expensively for a while. and then they initiated this operation where they are kind of a huge part. so northern shan state which borders china and this happened with some degree of blessings from china. this was planned, the models, they had to accumulate a lot of munitions to wanted to take it. and the main reason was that they were sites apart and crouching down all these pick, butchering, kind of cypress style guides, the run by a chinese try as the basic imposes. so that created space for them to do this operation. but they noticed that repeatedly, spencer, that, that goal is to time donovan latrete on top. and they've also been coordinating a lot with other resistance groups that have been slicing since the crew. and some of these acne comedies of being fundamentally opposed to me and mom industry role for many, many decades. so a lot of different actors, the found, the calling purpose and the board amazing, much more extensively to,

to target huge boss of the country. okay. nicholas just focus on not bit about the cyber scams and paint book sharing. because china, i think, could be very, very unhappy about what been going on on explore to tell me about that aspect. and whether you think china actually helped these rebel groups either tacitly or actively. yeah, i mean my is the major headache for the aging. um and the turn of dejan, welcome the crew. they sort of stay on defense for a few months, but after a year they decided that the military one was actually the government in charge and they had to engage with it. the problem is that the one types control, one other, you know, most history is, it is very of it, right? there are 3 pillars of the power of the type. and i don't know why need, how much stage or do you control this has gone down significantly,

incorporating into knows how much money you happen to cover. this is going down significantly because they can't sell as much gas. and they don't have as much investment from china as they use. and then how popular you are in the country or how fearful people off of the rules. and this is also going down. so china has seen in stability again uh as a major concern. another concern, as you mentioned, is the fact that criminal gangs have settled across the border from china to run and is cyber scams. when they traffic people. the trick people into working in dues a cyber centers, where they treat people run gambling operations. and these have a huge cost for chinese citizens and, and people who are being scammed and lose a lot of money, not to mention people was sort of force. and so some of the martin slavery to work

there. so basically decided that something had to be done and has came side, created the space for the ethnic group. i think brooks to sort of take over a rest the number of these gangs and send them back to china. now the political side of this is that who is the person who actually gave control to this region and gave was safe haven to this as a cyber criminal gaggs. it's me on letting himself, when he was in a minute he is telling me that he's the leader of the jump to just to be clear to help us now and 2 days later. and so i think, you know, politically, this is very uncomfortable. and so the and because it shows that page, it will not protect me online at all costs. so staying or more just for now we'll the board and adoption the 2nd. but to the, to the chinese border, china then forced

a cease far as i understand it between the june to end these groups. meaning these groups have locked in that control of this border area. how damaging is this for the june, for the june to given, not just militarily what they've lost, but also economically for them, because this is a vital trade route as i understand it. oh, it is a great loss for sure. and um, also like let's also let us remember that this submitted to them to actually as part of physics in almost tucker, due to economic functions from different parts of the world. where they are actually using a lot of, you know, like including the investment and where they are made many flows to them are being caught. so it's just, it's, it's a combination of that this, you losing that trade route as well as these targeted economic pressure. so these, but it's definitely a great loss for them. and um, it is also, it is where they become much, much, much more weaker when it comes to like, uh,

also taking uh, the taking control of how, how they want to take control is become more and more, more impossible for them also because the loses the trade route, as well as the talk a call that makes tucker that you call them exemptions from like you and us and kind of i am as okay, because if you can take the story on for us, it widens out, doesn't to the rebel groups and all the parts of the country and now guessing games, we've got to rock kind state. we've got recently on the tie. i mean, on my board or tell us what's happened recently. it was simply that the, uh, read the force there i have taken control of what is the uh, 2nd largest ports land ports. uh for a trade i always thailand. is it not being completely formalized, but the uh, the military there as already agreed that they would surrender and that they know

that we're shooting the drugs as, as, as long as i checked in new york, we have a, a 12 hour time difference. and this is huge because this is an enormous amount of revenue that the trade that flow. so this border, it will also the low id on groups to sort of increase their operations that support their ability to provide medical treatments to that. so they want to do this on you as well, wanted and so on and so forth. but it's symbolically, it's also a huge blow to the military that we shouldn't advert state this either because i think this is a, a particularly i'll never was war onto the civilians, right? we have 30000 people killed probably since the cooling 2021, we have 8 to 10 to 15. they have to know civilians death. the military basically

tactic is to terrorize disability against a bunk bed, a from the airplanes to torture and killed them in detention. so this is a very, very beach as well, but the tower doesn't seem to be working. and i think that is something that ultimately a could be a full line within the attack. my go itself, which is um, you know, the only way that the, the, the country can move forward is if there is a division within the army. unfortunately, some of the original actors do not want this. so we mention china, but russia is also there and providing a lot of military weapon and support them off thailand. would not, i do see too much k or so in his folder of india either. and none of these countries want to have the west coming back in the country. so the problem was this conflict as many conflicts around the world is not so much the domestic situation,

which is great, atrocious. but it's the fact you have so many external actors that do not have staking the welfare and of the population. i think that's where the international community and the you and have to step up. it's been on the black to a conflict for the last few years. kim, how would you describe what is currently going on? is this a civil war, or is it a revolution against the military? i think the revolution is perfectly up time for this because the main things is happening is that this has been driven from the bottom of the gun with mass strikes of the civil service. huge numbers of elected politicians and 94 lines is with suicide, 2 groups waiting organizations, all kinds of different stakeholders that being fund eventually a buyers to military role. i'm not certainly could not back that go up going back and they slide to activate resistance organizations and all those. what are those

are rugs is that gold are often characterized as just interested in their autonomy . actually, most of them are pretty and vicious revelation. we bought schools focused on federal democracy, actually even rice of the people website long because they go so i suffered for so many decades on the military rule. and so i think that really has created an awakening, which has been interpreted in previous generations. but now it's happened on social media, and that's been a real change of heart for many different people. but this is now the time to really rise up. and for a lot of the leaders, particularly the elected politicians, they never really charge to go into an old revolution as it was. it really happens from the bottom uh i started many people so that likes being lost, track sounds, mcdonald protesters, and just these extremely sadistic, particularly evil kind of methods. there were seen from the military of created a range strong response. i'd say for at least the yeah, one of the main stakeholders and finally finally believed that they can wait

a minute this time. and i think that's been a really big change. and that's what's bro, all kinds of different actors into calling about this. even though some of them have different ideologies, different backgrounds, and in many cases, different kinds of national identities, different languages and everything. but as a roommate release of assignments, they work together. the military can finally be removed side is all the solutions. absolutely. a revolutionary management and i think if it's successful or even if it's not success. so in order besides, there's obviously no way the country can go back to how i was before. so i think it was a serious transformation of politics underway, which is in some ways more significant even. and then what we see on the bottom fairly, i'll let me bring you in on that point. so many different groups. and you heard kim then say they will have slightly different names. is this potentially a problem? they all agree. well they all against the military june to, but do they all agree, what they all for and down the line, could this be problematic?

well, this is the 1st time all people from different federal and different ethnic, different religion, these communities ever had a chance to come together. so it is actually the process all coming together. so when they come together, this is the time that they are also like, you know, already split up the road map, political role met what kind of federal democracy that we want to establish. so i think this is not something to be worried because yes, you're right. you know, they all have a very common goal of removing this ministry and bring the like to like to hold this military to account and all of that. but at the same time, there is a very common political vision that is already laid out in what we call s federal democracy charter. and that is the baseline way. these different ethnic communities, different minorities majorities altogether. i've still been oppressed and the by

this military for 7 to gauge now have a chance to come together. so a lot to discuss. but this is really, is the greatest chest that i'll be ever had with the people. i actually bought a building this new young ma, new federal credit union law in the time of this act floor of the terror company that ministry is actually launching, i guess. i guess the, so i'm not worried even though there is a time that people need to actually come together in this nation building process. but the chance that they are getting this is the most important thing that the i actually look into tension has in the much stronger coordination that, that you was each in the last 2 years. for example, nicholas bottles all around the edges all around the borders, which is very worrying for anyone who's trying to control a country as the june to all. i want assumes these rebel forces. now try to move to

the center, move to the open areas. tell us why the middle tree on doing back to here because they have more fall apart or they, they have more homes, they have superior artillery. they have a dominance. why are they currently losing? but i think one of the key issue these troops, morales, i think that the, the morality in the army is, you know, very, very shaky because they have lost the people that are clearly on design. that means they are no constituency that he's for the military who died anymore. that really is the major difference with this is co, is that no one is in favor. the other thing is that in the previous era, when to me is the recent earring, which the, when that was the power they benefited from the gas boom. that when you a gas feel that were found in the indian ocean, particularly in the show,

a gas filled in, in child fuel, in the engine of ocean. and they've built a pipeline that put this gas from child people, one day the and the ocean to china. and that created an enormous amount of revenue for, and companies, hotel and others invested at thailand. both a lot of asked for the northern part of the country and that sort of supported the hood and has rule and they weren't able to distribute and economy benefits to that cronies and within the army. but it is not the case anymore. the dish way gas field is running out all the major company does. i've gone out and there are sanctions, which are, you know, not all the know what that should be because the general have still able to put a lot of money abroad in singapore and to buy in thailand and so on. but it is, uh, it is sort of hurting that operation and therefore they don't have enough money to

keep people on, on, on the side. and the biggest evidence we have of this is that they have no resorted to conscription, which is usually a popular, but they're gonna round up. peoples forced them to fight poorly. they've never shown any care for the full solid years. and this is why they sort of resort students very violent tactics against civilians and also the use of a few crack troops. right. and you have a few correctives why to be very well trained or they're really killing machines. they don't, of course they any of the international human during local agents. but even this adults limit of one group that has proved to be very able on the military from this new wish group and came in and came all american talk about this, the american army, iraq and states. and they've been able to link up with the,

the groups and build that military power. and there is link they defeat after the seats in right kind of sites to them in a trainer who adopt which it automatically may also be a problem. and for a big company and of the population here that we haven't mentioned yet, really he can go and, and, and so there, you know, the fracture lines amount ethnic groups. and at that, you mentioned, john, are, you know, they are a concern, a definitely something that you should be address. but at the moment, the one that really has nothing to offer in terms of the other way out. and that's why the international community has to step up. and i think after, you know, good terrorist and to you and secretary general and the address community with sort of hoping that as the end the regional group would try to help. and now i said, we've run to a point where none of this has as works and they need to be at an agreement

innovation for the future. and the higher level that involves, you know, china, russia, the un security council at india, thailand. and only if these actors sort of have an, a basic agreement that we'll be able to, to move forward. and i think that slight gutierrez, just name julie bishop, the phone, a foreign minister from australia has a new, a special representative. i just tried to sort of not show up the, the, the diplomatic activity, the other. okay. what to do with that? let me bring in more on that. what would you like to see the international community? do right now, what would you like to see julie bishop and her new role as an international envoy to i would really like to see the un security gone. so adult, a new resolution, a binding resolution under the un charter chapter 7 to take action against this

mandatory because that's the way to really and is an attorney and also, and the people separate one, the grow where the people will have a chest to start building this federal democracy so much in the much of by like, you know, sooner than later. well, also the international community where we actually see them to be dislikes on the ground. so that is a, sadly what we've been advocating for. but it's been very challenging because as you can imagine in china and russia in the un security council being the permanent member, having the veto power, always continue to be the supporting disability hunter, but also protecting the ministry of hunter from being held accountable by international law. so that's why we are approaching the international community, the government, individuals we're looking for, the champions of the democracy, who actually one to protect the name of the books to take

a step to step up and really come together to put more pressure on disability hunter, particularly we're calling for the aviation fuel cap, basically the we want the war to bass all that evasion fuel and evasion fuel change. so that this military has no more, you know, no. is that so the disability wanted cannot belong to be bought anymore, because that's the only thing that the have. now, the only leverage the military hunter has over the, the bus revolution. so okay, so let me bring in 10 with quickly on, on those points because all you're really going to get the international community in many ways, it's the un security council that can act when you've got china and russia there. i noticed that the security council meeting held about a week ago, the russian ambassador described the june to as a longstanding friend in close pop. yes, i think brochure in particular is

a major block at the moment. and i think the, the, i agree with the you have to brush triple angles for that to happen. i think the whole year and the system is realizing that that kind of negligence putting i see it on the front of the situation just by how see i'm not being able to solve the issue as not locked. and that really is the need for agency. i'm of you and member stage to push something through and yeah, there's already a lot of pressure on aviation you some of the steps of being taken, but it's nowhere near enough. so it really is a case of just closing down. some of those are mainly thousands, i can be extra steps because as the most, as you know, the drugs has been around staying for over a year. now you can reach many locations from the ground that has huge problems. moving infantry troops around most of whom, off, you know, veterans and retired. a lot of them and fully trained any way for now. so it's called scripts as nicholas. so we really are at a point where you just go

a military, this becoming increasingly isolated on bombing, wildly science, science, or markets. it blinks arising, hospitals wherever they lose control, and much of the, well, it is just kind of shrugging and driving. the whole thing goes way, but so much more decisive action is needed because the right thing is being on hold for a long time. now there's no way really not ready to jump to reverse this. but the problem is that it's got this huge build up of trains. so for many decades started stream the different routes as to the phase also. so these logs extremely violent conflict. thank you very much to all guess today can. i'll kim, joyless nicholas beck. a lot you can find plenty of background on the situation to me and ma, with reports, video and analysis on our website alger 0. don't com. we'd like you of use to go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash asia inside story. or if you prefer to messages on x, just look for at a inside story from the team here and go home,

please stay safe. i'll be back here very soon. bye bye for now, the the latest news as it breaks. during her remarks, the us ambassador made a curious and surprising comment, saying that the resolution would be non binding with detailed coverage in the hospital in garza city. they have very good data on the grounds. the graves split over gauze or not from the house of the story, one and 3 it's children is suffering from a cue of mountain nutrition. and health officials are saying around $60000.00 of pregnant women are suffering to for the hydration. over 30 years of, to the signing onto 01 tells the behind the scenes the story of nor waynesville and the oslo accords. they wanted to have what they present deniability and reveals how the secret negotiations skewed his phone decided to call back to talk

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