conflicts political up, steve was some of those we talked to elsewhere saying that they fled up to a hearing that other villages had been a talk. what we do in all just sarah is try to balance the stories, the good, the bad, the i'd be tell it as it was. and he's the people who allow us into their lives, dignity into minus. he asked me to tell the stories that ron is threatening retaliation for these really attack on me, reiney and conflict in syria. the us to accept the possibility of an imminent strike, but to ron and thousands, defend israel. how dangerous is the situation and what's the risk of a wider conflict? this is inside store. the colors that are on james bay's iran has promised the response to israel's recent

attack on it's consulate in the syrian capital, damascus. the us says it has intelligence and the attack is imminent and vows to defend this route. but his in top political career, israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu has labeled the wrong as his number one enemy, while leading a disastrous and brutal war and gauze at killing and wounding more than a 100000 palestinians. he's facing great political threats at home. a criminal prosecution on full charges waits if he's tucked out of office. israel's military and political establishment, and virtually everyone else will be fully aware that these riley strikes against the reigning diplomatic building could not have come at a more dangerous time. so what's next? what are the threats not just to the region but to the wider world? i'm kind of diplomacy come things down. we'll be analyzing the situation in full without panel of guests in a few moments. but 1st, this report from victoria k, can be the development of a wrench, confident building in syria. earlier this month smoked a new stage and what's often described as a shot a will between a run and this ro,

among the dead pools, from the rubble in damascus. were revolution regards, including one of the rents highest ranking offices for getting a general my home address is i had a, he was in charge of a wrench, codes forces in lebanon, and syria ran supreme leader has threatened to retaliate. this even heavies a step book at the wicked zine, this regime made another mistake and staged an attack on the runs consulate, which means an attack on the country soil, a violation of international normal. it made a mistake, and the regime needs to be punished and will be punished very well. these radio, all me is on highlights the lebanese on group has bowl a launch more than 50 rootkits from southern 11 on towards up a gallery in northern israel. and the occupied golan heights on friday. the israel launched a series of strikes in southern lebanon in response. us president joe biden says he

expects to run to attack israel sooner rather than later. in this moment, don't we are devoted to the defense of israel. we will support is real, we will defend, help defend israel and iran will not succeed unless say around will likely respond in a way that to tubs, israel from similar attacks in the future, but avoids minute tree escalation. that could drawer in the united states, even if they do respond, it's very likely going to be with some level of coordination to make sure that doesn't escalate. potentially. we actually don't know what's going to happen. but i think if you one of a that's a why the war then it has to be calculated to not necessarily involve taking the lives of soldiers. military confrontation would have serious and widespread global economic consequences, given the regions importance to energy supplies and shipping rates is and receives the situation crudely to go to conflict in an already volatile region. victoria

gates and b l g 0. the inside story. well let's discuss all of this with today is guess from the uranium capital house on i'm on the on as a professor of middle east and north african studies at the university of 10 wrong in washington, dc, treat the policy. he's executive vice president of the quincy institute. that's a us think time. i'm from north wales in the u. k. con ross. he's found the of the independent diplomat advisory group. thank you all of you for joining us today. let me start with you. treat to how dangerous is this moment that we find ourselves in now, this is probably the most dangerous moment that we've faced so far when it comes to a potential crash between israel and the role and as well as the risk of the us getting dragged into the war and this is part of the reason why it's also quite active texting is to buy the exist either. even at this moment the bygone

restrictions in state is to go back into the hall and express the points for israel with all 80 aspects. also the pressure on israel, it to show respect for it not to escalate the situation further. and as long as that is the notice of brandy, of the us administration, i see it is wishful continued aside. let's go back to the 1st of the month. 1st of april, when this attack happens in damascus, just remind us what happened and why iran is so upset about this. well, it goes against the rules of engagement between iran and israel. it's basically a goes a gate. i mean, narrow is the grey zones that existed between is yvonne and israel. they have been in a and then, you know, to talk that in different ways in direct attacks between yvonne and israel. with this one. this attack is a direct attack. why israel against any branyon embassy,

this is, this hasn't happened before. and because it's most of that and that situation between yvonne and israel and to a new level of escalation, this is basically different from what they, when years have been used to in their engagement with age really is obviously they, when he is here that they is right, is going for a change of rules of engagement that involves escalation, that can drag other countries into the conflict between neighboring and sundays railways including the mattress states, them. and that's what, what makes it very different from what existed before between yvonne and israel and killed many rainy and a military officers generals. and it basically, it's one of the biggest military blows to yvonne's military advisory role in

syria, in the past decade. so that's a big change in the engagement between yvonne and israel. that has existed for years now to com. you used to be a british diplomats until you resigned over the rock wall. you served on the un security account. so when you look at this strike, there's something called the vienna convention. there's also the un shots. so do you believe that this strike was legitimate on the on, justified on the international laurel? not well, international law doesn't seem to be very relevant in places like syria where iran is supporting the site version and viciously repressing assign population and using syria as an avenue for the delivery of weapons to has by law. and there's not been legal about that. there's nothing legal about what israel has just done to the wrong and conflict of cause conflicts and embassies of protect to father being a convention bestbuy's to be involved level. but there's my question that well as

well, has done is deeply provocative to the iranian regime. they have said that regard this as their own soto and states do regard embassies and consulates as that right and inviolable territory. so an attack on your entire tree, of course, must invite a response. and that's the situation we see now, straight to talking use the word provocative. israel must have known that it was going to get a response off to doing this. surely because it's been very clear from the volume inside that that has been in a red line or this is part of the reason why the volumes are just just by their lack of response. but there's been other attacks inside of syria or let the know on that have not been on your, on your, uh, on. so there weren't diplomatic premises being treated. there was a tax, a tax on let him know on, on, has a tax on syria and not as a tax and to be gone up. so this is something,

these are these new very well what they were doing. but there's also another aspect of it that i think was by the interesting, there has been an, an easy to explain. yvonne, united states and the militias in syria. any rock there are close to about this just all the way to kelly of 3 american soldiers in america's kinetic response, given numerous ministers in the volume, the pressure on them is these attacks in america to these ratings must have known quite well that this would risk free and then to that, which means that it would be, uh, that puts us troops directly into line of fire and make the targets. and he raises the question as to whether this was not just a publication against obama or propagation to try to actually drive us into this to assign. the israelis, of course, claimed the building was yes, a diplomatic building, but it was actually a base as well for the revolution regards. and that's proven by who they killed and that they say makes it

a legitimate target. and that doesn't basically under international law, it's a consulate, it's part of the ringing embassy. and h counselor has a different missions that go in and out. it's not the right. ready case in syria, honestly, i think all countries do that. uh so uh that's a is rarely claim they are trying to basically say that they target that they run in mandatory based, which is simply not true. and. and because the when youngs have basically received this, i think, and they, they didn't expect such a escalation on the part of these rallies. they are now under immense pressure to do something about a, to deter further. it's rarely escalations against your brain, your emissions around the region. so let me ask you about the us put the position on this because the us state department spokesman,

matthew miller has been off lots of questions about it. only 8th of april, he said, we condemn any violations of the vienna convention on diplomatic relations. but he wasn't talking about this. he was talking about mexico and equitable. and then when he was asked about this particular incident, he said we continue to assess the exact status of that facility in damascus. and that trying to work out whether it was a diplomatic premises. does this look like us double standards do you, i guess something that i think i'm afraid that's pretty clear. double standards have been applied repeatedly in the case of the sort of behavior weathering garza or more broadly in the region. the us thing says one law for the world and one little for israel, but at the same time, there's no question that this attack is, is being very uncomfortable for the us. they have repeatedly said they want to avoid a regional. they want to avoidable with the wrong and just realizing that put them in a position where the forced to say that the support for his ro is iron clad and that

would help defend this. well, if iran attacks that, that's a sort of unequivocal commitment that i think the us would not have made had it not being for this attack. and you know, cynically, one can see that these rallies have very successfully drawing the americans into a regional conflict. and if it's escalates, we will see us military activity against the wrong. i'm all complete. that's exactly what these riley's have been teaching for a long time, but it's also particularly relevant for them now because there was a growing debate in the us about a potential loans embargo on his route because of its contacting cause a set made debate in europe and this whole episode with a raw, has successfully distracted us and indeed international attention from that issue. and staying with you calm, because you know, the way the un security council works, there was an effort to try and get a statement by the count sold

a condemning this attack. and it was blocked by the us, the u. k. and from the rainy and foreign minister said that that's one of the reasons that wrong has to respond because of the security council of fail to take action. do you think it wrong was looking for some sort of off from, from the security council if they have done something, could be provided that it's interesting because these are wrong is do seem to be saying exactly that, but has a security council condemned the attack then they wouldn't be forced to a minute or 2 response. i'd very much doubt it and they wouldn't be extremely naive if i ever believe that's the security council would have condemn such that tak, i'm been. busy has made repeatedly evident that they will defend israel in the un security council that they will block any action condemning israel is coming back. and now we see other members of the department and 5 doing the same. so i think

that was not the slightest. charles, the security council would have condemned these riley attacks so that there's an element of kind of bluffing about what the run into saying that you're gonna have international role being explicitly put on this side. they would have not militarily responded. i think that's, you know, around the questionable position but treats that we have these same countries, the us back by the you can front, when it comes to the war in ukraine, repeatedly talking about the rules based international load. yes said incidentally, ever since october 7th might seem, i think was days to do random numbers. the principals at the us government have more or less to use the term rules based order. we counted around 12 instances in which they didn't use it anymore. busy in relation to you for a not a single time have that turned me to use invitation, garza and for good reason to because of double stand,

it would just be too large for the wall to be able to stop. but let me say one thing about the previous question, i think honest assessment may very well be true, but there is a counter example in 1998 that solid on attack, the vonny consulate in matter studies. enough bonus. dawn out chilled 91111. uh, you're going to be going to mobilize on the border. it was about to go to war. but the message was very clear. if there was a be a condemnation by the entire international community of what the tolerable has done, the volunteers would refrain from going into what was the community didn't want to go into the 1st place. similar to this, which was the security council did. i did attend them and yvonne has never once more with the told us. um, perhaps you can give us some of the context of this particular attack because this is not the 1st time that israel has launched as strikes on a writing and targets in syria. in fact has been going on for moving to decades since 2015. yeah, they have been under has been a shadow war between the 2 sides,

specifically on syrian tire trees. but so far the radios have talked about is really, is attacking. i mean is right, is attacking lebanese. i'm syria and tire trainees. attacking their races and some of the writing and advisors were account uh as, as a part of that there was a tax, but now they cannot say that they, they are building, i mean they, they bring an embassy, was here, and this is an escalation, like non before so it's a totally new, uncharted water for both. i think age right is 91 years age ranges. i've moved the escalation to a new high and they run years. as i said, they have a they they, they feel pressure to do something about that. they want to, they you and i was the 1st response i'm, they activated, their channels are being either states to, uh, to uh,

tell them that we are not targeting the states or any other country. basically we are targeted and we have a responsibility to react. and to deter stage where it is that you're bringing presidents, chief of staff, said that the message from the united states was bad. going to attack our assets and forces and go, the message was that, well, that's about that. you're going, your response should not target denmark. can somebody where news did not want to target the americans and the 1st place? i think they say they are forced to and they are planning to retaliate the game against israel and the other country or any other targets to com. let's look at the diplomacy that's going on right now. we've seen what's going on publicly president biden sent a message to iran. his words was simply don't um, but we've also had meetings involving the o o. coals involving the us secretary of state to spoken to the turkish foreign

minister, the chinese foreign minister and the saudi for a minister. and then the u. s. is allies the u. k. australia in germany that for a municipal price separate calls to the right noon for a minister. what else do you think is going on? do you suspect there was also some sort of back channels as well? well, the suddenly a back tunnel between the us and israel, which i imagine whether you're saying you put us in a very difficult position with this strike and damascus. but you know, diplomacy is leslie back channels. it's lucky, private. we don't know what is being said in these communications between all these countries and iran, we don't know if that necessarily amplifying the us message that the us that are wrong should not retaliate. cuz we don't know that they actually support about position. i don't think china has ever seen itself as a mouthpiece for us policy in the middle east or anywhere else. at the same time.

nobody wants to see abroad a confrontation in the middle east. nobody wants to see a war dragging around and it will have multiple repercussions, including economic weak repercussions for things like oil supplies and trade through the region. so there's a big incentive for countries decided to the wrong that they should not respond. but again, you know, as well has put them in a very, very difficult position because they're wrong, feels obliged to respond when it feels. and they just said this, but its own territory has been attacked street with hearing the us saying that they think this is imminent. when people carry out military operations, they normally like to use the an element of surprise. i'm would you, you wouldn't expect it wrong to strike right now. well, everyone is on high low. would you remember how the, by the strange to use uh,

the intelligent as it had, i went public with it prior to rushed as a legal invasion of you freight it called out and it made complex things that the new russians were planning to do. either way on the turn, so the more the english side is talking about it and say it's immune and it may actually very well be tended to make sure that it's bonnie, i just don't to talk precisely by defining them of any other minutes of surprise. i think the volume is may very well end up driving. just ask for quite some time. exhausting these ladies. exhausting the us, which seem to us new resources to the region. knowledge of resources, as well as on high a large amount of strikes now, but actually wait some time precisely because it would be more surprising it to happens later than anything happens to assign who makes the decision on this. in iran, ultimately as the supreme national security council, which is basically the party that is responsible for taking the strategic

decisions on the issues like this one. my think about the, i mean taking the rhetoric here from official. so it goes down. the mouth assumes that there's a decision on, on retaliating what, how to i'm in the level and where and when is, is, is on now. and we know that the track record for any of retaliation have showed that they were in youngstown to retaliate directions when they are, has directly. and their strategic cultures shows us some sort of, uh, you know, strategic proportionality trying to react on the same level when they are attacked as well. so i think there's a decision on this, but as i said we, we are not clear on when on how treat to that happening. some suggestions that perhaps iran would not talk, it is really territory,

but instead perhaps is really occupied territory, the golan heights, or one or writing an official, talked about maybe a israel's embassy as well. no longer safe. do you think it's possible that they will not talk? it actually is, is rad itself, but something owned by, as well as well. the bottom line is you're going to have a lot of good options. if they were to go ask the res, really embassies in the region, it would happen in the context of it actually speaking in full relations with most of its arab neighbors, including those who are actually posting is really embassies or concepts. and as a result of risk damaging unravel, be uh the diplomatic investment. yvonne has made in normalizing relations with those countries and taking benefits from the fact that israel itself is isolated itself so tremendously to be it. what to try to strike is re territory proper. then

it was faced the difficulty of never having really tested a israel's air defenses, the iron dome, etc. knowing exactly all we would calibrate such and it's time to make sure that it ends up being proportion and knobs. and the i'll be uh, so strong that he actually would invite groceries really estimation and compel 5 minutes to go and do yet another visual. essentially it come leads desperate as to israel strategy and can be supported green light from washington, a topic launch that allows these various design to strategy and the extent of it entirely without any objections from view. so is there a danger tom? is it a wrong could be fully into an is riley trap in the sense that increasingly, israel is losing so much international support. and by then becoming a conflict robin the conflict against the policy new people of war uh, between israel and the wrong, they change the narrative completely. yeah,

i think that's very insightful, james. i think as well as trying to do exactly that. it is trying to ship the story from the atrocities it is a perpetrating game. goes into this broad uh and. busy often use narrative of israel under attack from all sides, and it must defend itself, and it must court upon his allies to defend itself. you know, even the rhetoric that's come from this route. often they attacked and as iranian consulate in damascus is that somehow they are under a soul by wrong, that is not a kind of reciprocal or the response from around. and i think israel has many motivations for trying to distract attention from what's going on and cause a, including for its own domestic audience. the fact that it's not really winning, and also it is not successfully destroying how much there is an upside. josiah, unsettling hobbins in the west bank. many things that is where i would like to turn the wolves case from. and instead reinforced his traditional narrative of israel

under attack from his neighbors treat to the people will be watching this program. some of them, not in the immediate region a little around the world. what effects could this, if it comes in a lot will have not just militarily and politically, but on the global economy. well, it would be absolutely devastating. we've already seen the adjusted rising tensions as already or stop or prices if you have it all out more and be asked to keep in mind that with all of the different wars that have taken place in the region for the last 30 or still years, none of them were in all out for in this time that this would be in terms of involving a large number of actors and the large number of theaters we could see, or the price of skyrocket. and with the challenges they're all at the existing nick over the economy. this wouldn't have a depressing effect on the end. it's higher, but there's hardly any contract that would not be pushed by. it doesn't matter if they're actually employees or directly from the purchase at all if we're not able

to shop or prices in the back. all the different energy sources that they would be at a 40. so this would, every, the entire globe has an interest in preventing this escalation. and i think again, going back to something i said earlier on the american strategy supported by the united states is not one of the actual destination. it's a, it's a strategy of allowing is want to do whatever he wants to do, property pressure on all of the targets, a visual not to respond. and then they call that the explanation. that is not the message. it is part of the reason why we have come to this point that the united states has not been even handed doherty tradition houses. but how it is from the very beginning. what depression on israel, not to go for a ceasefire, we would not be in this situation. how certain very quickly, at the end, just give us a feeling of the mood, the inter on how, why read off people about the situation? well, i mean there have been very heated debates here of all are worried about the day

after you run doesn't retaliate yvonne's the terms he's as he is right around the united states, more broadly with the fact that he wrote it. if it does exist escalation, that can include the united states, some other parties in the region. so at the end, they run you as have their platform, they don't want escalation at this point. and i think they were, these are these new bath and they acted upon this, this basic pre calculus calculation. so i think a non of the options are easy for yvonne to a basically decided upon him. that's why they are under immense pressure now to whichever direction they take to basically implement when they pull the scientific gentleman august. today's warehouse on the amadi on treat to policy and con ross is ever out as their aims to give you the most comprehensive coverage of what's going on in the region. and you can also find context and analysis on website which is 0 dot com. you'll use that much appreciated to you can contribute on all facebook

page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story, or find his own x web ads. ha, inside story from over team here in bo, how please stay safe on james face, and i'll be back to you very soon. bye for now. the why have american evangelicals become dis, real strong as back or is us president joe find the right to stand with israel with no red line? as long as us support continues? is there anything that can stop is real? solve on concept, from going on in? definitely a quizzical look at us politics. the bottom line. ok, foundation is deliberate over $300000000.00. will suffice. emboldened $75.00 countries around the world, 100 percent of sec, thoughts, and emergency donation spence on projects. we ensure beneficiaries come 1st of a 300 developed luis, haven't that goes through the roof,

the crossing in recent months. our most of these bless and the bless i'm we all turning your donations into direct delivery in the shortest possible time donates with confidence. that didn't want the average person to know what the truth was. scientists dismissed as profits of do. we knew where the temperature was going to go by lead is seeking the profits of industry. they were publishing reports saying this is not an urgent problem. could we have changed the course of the climate to emergency? air is outages here as new series died. last futures, this is the 1st one they saw that we see in the real time it's the victims themselves . there's a disconnect between what we're witnessing on social media versus what we're seeing on mainstream. it is always an attempt to frame a 2 sides of them,

but there is no 2 sides to this. the western media does have a western bias. understand what they are looking to raise the listening post covers how the news is covered. the, [000:00:00;00] the hello, i'm sammy's a then this has been use our live from dell coming off in the next 60 minutes. a palestinian is killed and at least $46.00 wounded and attack spies right. the sap lives in the occupied westbank as the missing 14 year old settlers found dead as