and the aiming to individuals in somalia, federal leaders are invited to discuss in security and constitutional changes with somali politics so deeply fragmented is national unity possible. and what role to somalia as neighbors play and achieving a more peaceful future. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much actual somalia has long been one of the world's most divided nations government leaders and they'll get issue have struggled for decades to a sort of story in many parts of the country. the power vacuum has left somalis with little help as they suffer from drought famine and armed groups. now president has on shifting how much has called the meeting of regional leaders, amy to confront the challenges. so what are the main obstacles preventing the country from coming together and can they be overcome? we'll go to our panel in just a few moments, but 1st sent them on has this report? somali as president says, he's looking to bring his country together, a song shape mohammed has called a meeting of regional leaders with the name of healing divisions and one of the world's most divided nations in somalia, civil war let's the collapse of the central government and 1991, the country has been fractured ever since the success of administration struggling to assert their authority. the power vacuum has given rise to our groups, such as our ship bob. it's fighters regularly carry out a tax,

further undermining stability and the rule of law. widespread food shortages before the series of droughts. for the 3rd of the 17000000 population struggles to get enough to eat. and nearly 4000000 are displaced with many seeking refuge abroad. the northern state of portland is a main player in any bid to restore stability. the oil rich region has been sending a ton of us since 1998 while it recognizes the central government in the capital of mogadishu. relations of broken down in the past year, put the leader side up to law. he denny projects. the proposal by the somali parliament to change the constitution and overall the electoral system. he's also pursued trade ties with neighboring ethiopia. somali is present, oppose that for undermining his authority, a national unity. the upcoming meeting of regional leaders is a chest of men, ties and work together towards a better future. overcoming divisions will be an essential step. somali is to

confront the many challenges facing a fence mullin, elda 0 for inside story. the. all right, let's go and bring in our guests in minneapolis in the united states. i think it might have some a t r as a so molly senator, for some of the land indicating the capital nairobi of yada. and me is a research professor at the city university of mogadishu. and in my put to capital most i'm big or more, my mode is the senior analyst for eastern africa at the international crisis group . a warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. if you already let me start with you today, how much is writing on this upcoming national consultative meeting in kansas meeting actually lead to finding solutions to somali as multitude of problems. uh, thank you. and how about them, fax it over to the guests as well? i just wanted to start with the background of what is happening now. this meeting is coming right after sean process of what

a solution making. where did that come into the government to actually unit a lot totally a created or made its own constitution. the other reflects it's, it's interest based on priorities. so for that reason, actually they wanted to have some buy in for these leaders who in the 1st place have given some endorsements to the current to process. so that's basically, they're coming back and maybe re examining already evaluating the process is that they have impacted on about a year and a half ago. and i guess what's of these take now is the problem is given to the leaders 40 that extension or set of selection in regards to the in direct election is that they are expected to go through. so there are more or less i think, uh,

the process where just to very few leaders are coming together to to, to design their own system. the benefits done. uh. id. let me ask you, uh, you heard there from a few all right. who was talking about this being a difficult process. uh, fraud with complications um this meeting is being heralded as a chance to overcome differences is a chance to work towards a better future from your perspective. can that be achieved or are there just too many problems? because you have to be with you, i'm preaching to my come ready to cut off yet, and i think he's absolutely correct that as a member of parliament, as a senator, i can speak with some degree of a sort of jump legitimacy in stating that it's a sham process that the president is trying to sort of pull the paper size about the project that's going to lead to a dictatorship. and i wrote

a book called off because 1st democrat, somebody should know what democracies this is, the 1st country in the continental plastic outposts independence that had a series of democratic connections and change of government. so we know what that he's as a member of parliament, long times of senate, and i can tell you the sort of that quite clearly that when we 1st met us mom complimentary just to examine this process, we were suppose to have a document to that to provided the protocol, so which the process with a goal before we get to the constitution itself, that sort of has to be cut off the law house of putting a bunch of bodies in cahoots with the, with the president. decided to have it both without even distribute to the protocol for discussion. and then from there on each had a few national sit down here. so gives a cup that wants to have a constitutional process which will gotten out of confidence for both international models. then this is nothing sort of

a natural lead to that process because it's starting to corrupt it. the president has to set the power upon them. as you share the concept most kindly of the cabinets under prime minister and is actually acting unconstitutional on the basis of that kind of constitution. so what would be the sum of the people confidence that this project he wants? he is going to give them confidence that they will have the voice in the way in which the countries run. so hard process, in my opinion as the medical, as a senator is a share. omar, you heard there from, are they are these saying that this whole process is a sham um, you know, a lot of critics are saying that the proposed constitutional changes which include introducing direct presidential elections and allowing the president to appointed prime minister without parliamentary approval. uh, a lot of the critics are saying that that would concentrate power in the hands of

the executive. what do you say? how complicated is all this? we know politics and somalia of course is very complex. i've complicated is all this. how fraught with difficulty is going forward? well, i think there's a deep history here that we also have to remember. you know there's, there's a stronger version in somalia to the concentration of power in the hands of one particular individual or the parents bear up. and a lot of this is the hangover of the military dictatorship. that's the bar in the 19 seventies and 19 eighties and as fraught the somali politics has been over the past, you know, 2 decades or so. since the reconstitution of a central government, there's been 2 key principles. i think that, that have kind of underlying governance and you know, one is, is a federal model and one is the parliamentary system. and so the problem with the, with the constitutional changes, the way you know, some of them are being basically construed right now, is it, is it challenges some of those, some of those dynamics. and then sort of opposite sion feels that the government's

basically designing the process and you know, to, to benefit them and override in some of these principles. i think the issue is the level of inclusivity. you know, there's key constituents, you know, one particular member state in portland hasn't participated in the, in these processes to date. and so, you know, to have a more viable document going forward and to avoid it. you know, any, any risk about backlash from that? i think there does need to be a bit more of a in can split inconclusive process. if you are a, what are some of the other opposite goals at play here that have kept the country from coming together that have kept everybody so divided across the political spectrum as well. i guess the, the, the source of the problem is that the kind of rigidity is, has impacted on from the get go. i went up next or where basically the room that some house, regardless of both of different groups, came to follow but eventually refused to share power. i think that's one of the,

a big problems. the other, maybe a serious issue here is that the whole state, but the project is, uh, is, is, is, is we're approaching the event. so a, normally you establish, look forward to starting or disagree with the institution is on unpack station on police and all of these things. and then after that, the rule of law, institution is and then we have democratic accountability and institution to so basically, what do we have now is our political elite liberty defy the liberty for our mentor? as it is, is more or less interested in grabbing to power on somehow uh uh, a be 10 of the using uh, whatever, uh, whatever they get out of it. so basically i would say like, we have the facility this on the 2nd. we are also having some problems with this incomplete political settlement that somehow needs to be an expanded

by adding a new forces. so matter, i'm maybe booked around and i that is, it seems that the way we're going now is exclusive, excluding even some forces that have already been present. i'd be a few already there mention points. lyndon, i wanted to ask you about them because the semi autonomous state appointment, they say that they withdrawn from the countries federal system and the appointment will governance of independently until constitutional amendments passed by. the central government are approved in a forthcoming nationwide referendum. i'm. i'm curious to know a little bit more about this. why exactly did they withdraw? what specifically did they object to and how much does this development threaten unity? i think there are 2 things to note to you and about the concept. i think the on one hand, the claim they made that they had withdrawing from the process, not from the country,

but from the process is legitimate to because the president then it's just a small group of parliamentarians including they speak. i have hijacked that process. so that's the 1st thing. i think the president was to follow the procedure that has been laid for forming the constitution, the folks and put it on would have had no leg to stand on in terms of the claim that they had with joy. so the question is, what they should rather than support from the claim bar shots from from cannot suggest that even the process was as has been agreed to before when they would have passed all then they wouldn't be a partner see that project. so i think the process that i feel is absolutely correct, that the president is shaw, sort of a committed and blindly committed to grab and as much power as he can. and that the fuel and the neighbors to the regents at all. no additional. basically they have not my choice that men over, that he thinks we can't drive trucks at all. so everybody can show this imagery too

much on the part of pointed out, just say, no, we have to stop the process, make it inclusive. and i would like to speak about inclusivity amber. the president says, no, no, no, no, we are going to do that. mm hm. and that's the 1st thing i want to address this question. i've been pushing that to that are 2 ways in which it was somebody's can be included this process. that's to say that commonsense and their needs are addresses legit to and that's one way to do it. that's what a democratic project aides me the other way. as far as, as far as the comp process that we have been engaged as a country which states we have divided into particular groups. finally saw everybody. that's what are we supposed to have the same idea of the same interest, which is b s, in my opinion. and i'm so addressing the common needs are holding another people education, security handles employment. that's what we bring people to get that. so let me just give you an example. there was a that's, that's what the senate in the house what i am

a member off. what's that i sort of are going to, and i hired a few, you know, live on the staff members and process. it was sort of divisive on colorado that they said no, no, no, well, if somebody could kind of compete for this, every particular sort of a geological group after some like a dash. and so individual william, somebody's who don't code some codes have friends in part of the but i'm not trying to compete that these are exclusive as a hide. and so we have to get back to the idea of the fundamentals of democracy on accountability and give our people the whole point of the desire they show the actual home for unless that's done, this process will ensure cachet again and again in the country, we go nowhere walmart, so if portland, which as we mentioned is semi autonomous, if they would have to be a main player in efforts to restore stability going forward, do they have to participate in in this meetings?

it's coming up the national consultative meeting because it has been reported that an invitation was sent to portland's leader, but it's unclear if he would participate if he does not participate. and if there is already skepticism, as we've heard on this panel about what that meeting can achieve, what does that mean? while it hasn't been participating in these meetings for over the past year, you know, it was january of last year where they kind of at 1st basically said they were suspended and they're, they're large as a patient. and the latest announcement that they made, just ask for the constitutional review process for the 1st 4 chapters included was basically an extension of that. and in, in almost height and the rhetoric about it, but followed on what they had already basically said. so now i don't expect for man to be participating in these meetings. i mean what that means going forward is, you know, i think for mans raised some of their concerns. uh, these aren't fundamental concerns. these are recurrent concerns. a comes back to this tension about what exactly is the vision for federalism and some of the are going for, you know,

programs always viewed itself as sorta as long as the mother of federalism within somalia and protector of it. are they then bedded causes in their own constitution base a great to that effect? and so, so i think that, you know, them not participating in the process is, is a concern going forward. it means that there needs to be a dialogue between, you know, the small government in portland, you know, uh, you know, come on sending this out to, you know, need to hear kind of what the reasons are. both sides need to very clearly a non ca, those and discuss of going forward how can you can overcome them? but the problem is that dialogue is not really happening right now. the problem is, ties politically at a personal level is also gotten quite bad. and so the distance is very large. oh more. let me also ask you about the fact that, you know, all of this is happening at a time when there's great tension between somalia and ethiopia, ethiopia has been trying to strengthen relations with some of the land and with portland, what's at the heart of these disputes? well, i mean essentially, you know, and they will be up ended politics. and in this part of the world with this whole

memorandum of understanding, they came to it some of the land at the beginning of the year over over c access. and that was something, some of the are reactive quite strongly to given that, you know, they view it as an affront to their sovereignty. and, and so those tensions haven't fully subsided. you know that that's a memorandum, you know, i think it was a declaration of intense more than anything we haven't seen a ton happen in terms of implementation side. and, you know, i think it's the only is almost playing a double game here. you know, trying to balance its desire for c access, you know, so, so the disagreement with kind of the consequences that might have for its relationships with mogadishu. now this is intersecting with, i think, domestic somali politics because any time you have such strong disputes within, within somalia, you have consistency starting to look at abroad, you know, starting to look outside the country for support and, and whatnot. and so what we saw just recently was, you know, a reaction to this where full man held a meeting with with you will be an official and somalia, very quickly responded by

a young spelling the basically open and boss or, and ordering the consulate in collab and and somebody ran to, to close. so you know, i think that that's clearly, you know, domestic angle to that. but it's intersecting with these regional politics that have been up and to some of the unresolved. and you have your, i saw, you're reacting to something what omar was saying, there's, so i'll let you jump in. but i also want to ask you about, you know, from your perspective, what role cancel molly as neighbors play in achieving a more unified and a more peaceful future. let me 1st and start with, because i've been planning on. i agree with professor stomach that both of them has had some legitimate grievances against the process. that kind of the process, of course, is different making. but uh, i guess what is questionable is action is that it's meters to afterwards. i think they could have expressed it better this content with, with the show in other ways, with respect to, to own where is position. i'm an explanation. i agree with him. it's silvia has

been a spoiler into somebody is making for the past 20 plus. yes. it, it has been meddling, creating more, more supporting with weapon to see them there. i know it's expansion is emissions to, to, to grab somebody. territories has been, uh, and he didn't actually operate a going on in the past, claiming the whole country's of either somebody line or the but i do. so basically it will be, it has never been genuine. or, i mean uh, uh, interested in pieces somebody, they want to just a week um, friendly and define it. uh, kind of fit them in, in, in, in, in the east. and that's what they have been working on. and this is not just district jim given in the bottom, it gives me id. i want to ask you about what omar and i were talking about a moment ago, which is the, the tension between e, c, o, p, a,

and somalia. and specifically, when it comes to what happened in between ethiopia, and so molly land, essentially, if you'll be a wants to set up a naval base there, how much is that in flaming of the current situation? i don't, i think it's because it's a factor in the current situation. i'm kind of situation speaking. okay. but the final one, i think my job and i just, i kind of giving you a audience. so if you're around and besides to say, we want to have a quarter know too much and then to get the inside of the, you know, same sort of a so degree that or so with the population will accept that. so thank you. up him 5 minutes settings hide 3. if he's interested in having a commercial relationship with somebody that i'd wish to do that you've gotten to you, is this my boss? so can you? yeah. without claiming to put a neighbor base. i'm grab a 2015 kilometers on that kind of tony. ok. so that's the 1st thing to note. if you come back to the constitutional process. yeah. i think the hon or public

a country to sort of a tammy a you tube you and to go to the immediate neighbors. i think the on the country that has been genuine in health and somebody has put time to dumpster together, is to put $200.00, which is a small country and it's very little resources. so it just doesn't have the kind of a weight to make that over when materialize in the country. and it kind of goes into the sheets, county is claiming a part of somebody coastal tentatively as what the see that she wanted to add typically today to national cost, which was which was part of the somebody case about find money. and i'm so there is no reason for the 2 option problem manage that to make these sort of out loud screams that otherwise you caution relationships between the 2 countries and up to people who have what going to be together forever. and to find ways to work together without somebody actually, i mean i do some about pointing to a piece of collecting barbara for that and i can show it to you. what it, what it,

what it shows here is that there are a lot of trouble cooking insight into a p. i gauge the prime minister that she wants to project to in the process of overseas. so that he can unify dates or can accomplish that behind this or but you know, this is all the kinds of evidence that's coming today is that they pretty much, i'm not able to travel outside of them. so because okay, us filings that sorta engender that price. so i think you would, you would be the only feasible country in that region. that's genuinely impressed. it means somebody are coming back to get that as a sort of a country that's democratic and makes omar. i want to ask you about a different aspect when it comes to this deal between ethiopia and, and so molly lined more specifically, does it have the potential to further the stabilize the one of africa and when it comes to the stabilizing factors, i want to ask you how much has the power vacuum and some of the are given rise to arm groups like i've shut up? yeah, i mean, i think one of the key ex factors here is the relationship between is he will be in

somalia and when it comes to security, you know, whether that will continue. and you know, just to remember a year ago, we were talking about in this region of a frontline states initiative, where basically, if you will be in kenya, but particularly, and you'll be always going to send tens of thousands of extra troops towed sites. i'll show up in somalia and now or year later, you know, out on the heels of the sample you were talking about the complete opposite. you know, in, in mogadishu. the fear is that if you will be, is actually going to seize some of the land. and so i think that shows how quickly uh, fluid in the situation is and how quickly uh, relations can turn. now the issue is, you know, if you will be a, is a security provider in somalia as, as current to, you know, it's both with the african union, a peacekeeping mission, which is supposed to be drawn down from troops to the end of this year. but a follow on foresight i would expect is likely, but also in a bilateral level. and so if you had do relations deteriorate to the point where there was a sudden withdrawal with those forces, you do have a vacuum. now can,

can some of you feel that vacuum with its own troops going to find other countries to fill the vacuum? what are the opportunity costs of that with regards to the offensive? it's trying to maintain in central somalia that, that it's been struggling with as well. but in any case, you would have a security document. i think that's where the concern is that the relationship doesn't deteriorate. to the point where the security cooperation is completely suddenly fractured. a few. all right, we don't have a whole lot of time left, but i don't want to turn our viewers attention to another aspect of, of life and how difficult things are in somalia, which is a huge amount of terry and situation. millions of people in somalia struggle to get enough to eat widespread food shortages of followed a series of droughts. millions are displaced, how dire, currently is making mandatory and situation? well, that has been actually quite a bad in the last few. actually last 3 years, i would say on the, basically the, the side of things is that at any given time from 2011 from now the number for all season who are for this a quarter, i've been an increasing, it was 4 medium,

5000000 around 2011, and now it's close to 8.5 meters. so basically we see that this for security on, on, on, on the situation that is link it to the environmental slash climate change is really becoming a serious issue. by the way, the whole, i mean life is tired of that just link it to the nomadic life is style or, or boss to our lifestyle is collapsing in front of our eyes where we don't have any replacement or any government to the institution. does that kind of guide our society out of this problems of been flooded and drive it so it's actually serious and hopefully we're uh, the international community. when would it would come to 8 id? we only have about 2 minutes left. i just want to ask politics and so malia are so fragmented, they have been for so long is national unity even achievable right now?

so thing say i want to comment on the 1st thing is best on buy format. i don't believe if your p a is a security provided for somebody i think is actually what it does is to feed into a community. so the need for the piano transcripts remain solid. so that's the 1st thing. i don't want this other method of somebody. unity if you go across the country as i have done, and you've talked to all the people for all or watch as much school teachers that far, much so sort of a management samsung students. there is something that you shouldn't be letting me make about this country, and that's the desire of the people to get that come to their country back. that's the language to use. they want to get their country back. so if to leave this to share in the form of the president and the prime minister and the speaker found it on his on so far out of genuine eyeball dish. and the sort of ad to convey to the ideas that sort of ex, emanate from the local population students, farmers from cuz my to stay at some point tonight and sort of attribute to dribble

that. i think it to be a relatively easy process. but what's missing is the car for her to come convictions in the front and the whole much natural guides process and then mobilize the population. not. i'm going to come back to that i for what's it coming in a way that to be marvelous, but also to address the kind of concepts ecological concerns. i'm a journeyman by training. i can tell you is that there is enough coating that can be produced in this country without should go from outside, from livestock to pulse essential on a source which should be the focus of all government. glad the playing the shuttle to, to come games that come ticklish the guy. what this because all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guess i've this might have some of the car off, y'all directed me and on more my us and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website obviously, or dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also during the conversation on x

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