ralphie hammonds, president, was part of a deadly guy. i refused to give them my head, will give up power the killing of self human. the politicians during a routine cabinet meeting. a 1986, an estimate of an assessment nation on al jazeera. china is conducting military exercises around taiwan, just dies off deadline to him to with sworn in as the islands, new president's vision has cooled, lie a dangerous separatists with the chinese actions main for the region. this is inside story, the color. welcome to the program. i'm told mccrae china has escalated the scale of its military exercises in the taiwan strait over the past 2 years. while the united states has increased its rhetoric and support of the island. beijing times silver

and t or the tie one which was seized by nationalist forces retreating from the mainland when the communist power in 1949. now the democratic progressive policy, which is championed a separate time when these identity has secuity a 3rd presidential term, a wall policy leaders have turned down talk of independence. president slide true to sit in his integration speech. the taiwan is already a silver nation. by shooting has responded angrily with the latest round of military drills. so with this, china go from here, and how far is the united states willing to go in support of tie? one will have more without pamela gifts and just a moment. but 1st, this report, by in the gym kinda chinese ministry drills involving the army, navy, and f o, a ryans, taiwan, just days off the islands and the president used to use the new gratian speech, judge begging to stop its threats and aggression. the i want to call on china to

seize, gets political and military intimidation against ty, one shave with, ty, one the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the taiwan strait, as well as the great to region and ensure the world is free from the fear of war marching talk such to continue, freed, assess, has policies reiterating his commitment to maintaining taiwan silver and t something. china opposes title. sure, luigi all time ones. independence is a didn't matter under what name or excuse pushing for time. one's independence is doomed to fail. china will and must achieve reunification. nice when marks the 3rd straight presidential term, the democratic progressive party, which maintains the island is culturally and politically different from china. and promotes a unique harmonies, identity noises he supports the state, is quite a toy one for binding of self government democracy. joya was rejected that holding

him a dangerous separatist. he claims the island as its own territory to be taken by force if necessary. taiwanda, lloyd maines on supplies. the us is one showing that against the military exercises people's republic of china represents a major challenge in many ways that continue to pursue the largest piece by military build ups. since we're over to, we've routinely witnessed dangerous behavior from the people's liberation army, the chinese coast guard, and their maritime militias throughout the south and east china seas. as beijing, they look to exert their excessive illegal m, revisionist maritime claims. beijing says us sales of arms to tie one undermine chinese territorial integrity of washington's ministry exercises in the south china sea regional stability. the tensions have prompted concerns about global supply chains. the island is

a technology hub and major producer of semi conductor chips. the crucial component in a range of products from calls to mobile phones and target these companies, such as apple supply of fox cone, have a major presence on the mainland. any confrontation between the superpowers over the island could disrupt slave and economy. image in cuba out to 0, the inside story, the let's bring in august now in taipei is a thing you chain who is an assistant professor of political science. it's through child university. in beijing, victor gao is vice president of the center for china and globalization. a leading a chinese think tank and didn't talk here to me. he goes to good. she is a special adviser at the gypsy future studies center. he's previously advised the japanese cabinet during the sions are all the administration. thank you very much for being with us here. on inside story, we really do appreciate your time saying you can i place,

begin with you. your in taiwan were saying military exercises, time and time again from china, especially in recent years. do these feel different? i well i think tony is people are getting used to this and because we have been younger throughout of china for a very long time. so last time. uh, especially the trinity trinity, to me that the original, which is a big arcadia of taiwan is at the time west. jade, where we see that the all the word especially the internet to meet the store number as of all of that. but for the time these people will discuss very routine ovalo daily lives, because the china law frying a lot of watches and the fido, just around taiwan strait and be, become a new normal. you know, thailand straight. i think that the people just get used to that and also he bought, discussing about how to strengthen our own defense kind of beauty. victor, i don't, i mentioned that is the message the beijing wants to hear and response to these

drills at the people's liberation army said they are a strong punishment. the separatist x. i mean, is that a total of reaction to the presidents? and will gratian speech. you know, i think of, i think the speech made the countries as far as the one time a policy is concerned is cut them off to a declaration of war. he risks the peace between the 2 sides of the taiwan strait and cath, i need to do something to teach him a lesson and to warm the separatist in taiwan that don't go beyond the point of no return because otherwise turned on as demo straight. but this round of the joint military exercises will decide to block kate probably want. and that's what we're really comfortable the economy inc. i want and it will read the false lighting to the cold. because if he tries to resurrect the,

i'll finish the civil war between the 2 sides of the power straight. the 1949, for example. that's what you will get. and if he wants to bring these all stuff to the people on both sides of the power was straight by this key, the so called a taiwanese independence or separatism. that's what he will get. and this is the guess the people, the pie one. this is very focused on the separatist being probably why. now, even the world of today, no one can recognize both china and taiwan at the time at the same time because that's in violation of the one charlotte policy. any attempt to push pipelines into a separate sovereign independent culture is that before it's stopped you and that's, but less than by trying to need to teach, like doing good. and if he really wants to become more and more desperate to push for the so called independence of ty, one,

he will destroy peace across 2 sides of the taiwan straits. and he will bring crime . it is not only to the people in taiwan, but many of the stakeholders in this part of the world. we are at a critical goal moment. we need to promote peace rather than allow people like by asking to to destroy peace. okay, victor, thanks so much for that. tell me how are you listening to all of that? do you think a, is this a declaration of war like victor outlines and how is dependent other regional players actually reacting to this is the whole region on edge. i think it's a quintessential mr. go who speak 6th stream, a rhetoric almost all the time. this is not going to invite or ad for mr. go, has just spoken a long way to the carefully crafted lines spelled out in the white paper. taiwan white paper issued in 2000 to $22.00 in which the chinese communist party

said clearly that the so called quote unquote, separate test must be removed, which is why mister gall is targeting at an individual the president low. but by the way, he is the president democratically elected on in the elections, conducted very much in a peaceful way. taiwan is an exemplar of democratic process, which a lot of countries in the world should look up to. now, i want to bring up a mass that was put out by the people's liberation army now, which basically outlines exactly with the drills being held. it basically shows uh, the drills in circling the entire island saying you this obviously a deliberate tactic to try and intimidate taiwan. is it working?

well, of, it's hard to say, how is, how is it? well, because last time i reduce the lat, uh, the people around the ward, i mean the boats and also the paint air pans. joe's the have to escape, i'm in to avoid to 5 through these regions because well, there will be miss alice. and also without the washrooms and the fighter jets. so yeah, it's not the only intimidation of taiwan, but also all, all around the world. i mean, yeah, it's a 2 because body, i mean you can see the body language of that. and i think that is a fact that the, i mean taiwan in the people's republic of china is not sort of stop holding a to each other. i think just to drop this fact. however, i don't know why i try now just so angry about these basic fact. so they always use a lot of different kinds of courses at rad has including the meat atory was and also, i think, also send a strong message to the region allies, including japan and also the sort of beans. so i think, well,

it's not only for taiwan, so last time they filed with themselves into japan's economic zone. so i think that the whole region is getting this message gets victor isn't this reaction the show a force that we've seen from the p. i light, i mean, isn't it? it's just piling into president lise hands. he wanted a reaction from badging and, and he's been given one. no, no, not at all. why? because the pedal just being kind of why i mentioned that the 2 sides of the power street, i'm not subjects subjugated to each other. so you know why? because the civil war, which reached in china between 19 for the 171949, never finished. and ever since the beginning of the 198 is china as being calling for peaceful reunification. now what, right, you can go, his duty is to wrestle wrecked the. i'll finish the civil war. it's a civil war styles off. taiwan is clearly marked installed. it was occupied by

japan between 1895 to 1945. and as part of the conditions for the japanese unconditional surrender, japan had to return taiwan to try and fix it as comp the install, the status of pay. why we did not go further into the past was laid down by the title declaration and the pops that approximation, which form the basis of japan is unconditional surrender. therefore, japan has no reason, no justification, no parties vacation i call to get itself to be involved in the cross straight relations for whatever reason, it's against the constitution in japan, it's against the tubs of unconditional surrender of japan to try that. and to be like this basic 1945. and if japan, das to ink to feed things across street relations, for example,

be prepared to stop up all the consequences because it is literally over turning the verdict of the 2nd world war. yeah. hi. wasn't being part of china is the coldest storm of the international all the we are the be okay. in fact it, you know, i just with you to allow that you want to overturn the legacy. i don't know, i'm going to give the right i want to get it kind of, he co, a chance to respond here. it told me he said, well, i know that you just want to jump in. what would you like to say? a t s, the japanese unconditional surrender was issued towards the signatories. the chinese communist party was not one of those signatories. it was the convent on john ca shakes party. and so mentioning japanese attitude at the end of the war has no relevance. all at this point and japan is its immediate neighbor, japan's discipline,

from taiwan only by 109 kilometers. what ever happens in taiwan uh, mattress, very much to the national security of japan. and indeed, the japanese new, the sick you with the laws have made it possible for the united states and japan to work as a unit in case of taiwan contingencies. and the philippines and japanese have uh, uh, recently started work very closely together. and i think that sort of korea and japan will also do the same. so make sure that the chinese should better understand that these sorts of media, terry exercises intimidation, that threatening actions could only lose international support and not the wind, anything. before i want to move on, but a touch on something very briefly, thing you, these are part of the,

these drills of focusing on some of the small islands, only about 10 kilometers off the coast of china. how it risk of being annexed here by china and is that it worries in taipei right now as well. it is so worried indeed because of this uh, remote islands are very close to china and very difficult to defend. however, we have already defended successfully in the 95th. these are the situation on these different right now. so try nice. now using more, the so called grades on activities to intimidate these items, including using song fishing boats to many enter, some of the very close the water zones around these items. so into containment days of the people's daily life, their so they have already, i mean, trying to, i mean, to appear in the hall post any lives so well, there is no surprise at all. and by this time, the drugs, the upgrade, the threats and evicted in the chinese beijing is sort of been somebody said that

this could be a prelude to further punishment, as the chinese have put it to what sort of repercussions, what sort of fear the repercussions could we say are we talking sanctions here? allow me to add a point. first of the distinguished panelists around japan mentioned the japanese are the kinds of those that are on the in 1945. he pretends to forget that after japan unconditionally surrender inc. time on the civil war. the national is the government was defeated and sledge from mainland trying not to try was matched the route cost of the separation of the 2 sides of the pie was straight. and the office of the civil war doesn't give any part of the occasion, but i want to become a separate, independent sovereign country. it is part of china as the japanese government, when the china is one trying to whether japan recognizes tie why that's being part

of china. if the problem is the problem, japan says no dependent doesn't recognize that he is over tardy, trying about japanese diplomatic relations because the corner stone of trying not definitely is diplomatic relations, is for japan to acknowledge that there is only one. china and taiwan is pop up chat . okay. i'll see you want to contradict the official policy of japanese government . okay. all 13000 don't have the coverage. all the bravery to do that. okay. tell me about me through this whole victor. i'm gonna go ahead because i want to give to him he co, a chance to respond that you will have attending japanese china. china is relation . yeah. that us. thank you. there is one thing in common between the japanese position and the american position. as regards the so called one china policy, the tokyo government at the time and watching this as well, acknowledged that the chinese communist party says this and that,

that's it. they, they have neither neither united states nor japan has ever said that we subscribe to the chinese version of china policy. remember that you said it is to tom card checking. $197172.00 also strongly mentioned, asserted that taiwan is a legitimate entry and legitimate entity in the international community. and so the united states and japan also took it back to consideration into that deposition as well. so the tokyo government said they acknowledged what the chinese communist party said. read the text, you bring up the united states. obviously, incredibly important here. i just want to give out to you was a bit of a reminder of the u. s. policy on taiwan, the washington switch. diplomatic recognition from taiwan to china in 1979. a few

years after then president richard nixon visited by using the us follows the one china policy which recognizes the people's republic of china as the sol, legal government. but it only acknowledges beijing's position that taiwan is positive. china, and this means the us has formal relations with china and unofficial relations with taiwan in the absence of diplomatic ties. the taiwan relations act provides a framework for relations and protects us security and commercial interests on the island. but the legislation is unclear on with the washington would defend taiwan against an invasion. this policy has come to be known as strategic and the give us a venue i want to go see you next. how confident is taiwanda the you with will actually have its back? if china does step up its military and actually invites tie, one, as well. after the 1979, the us has the taiwan relations act, which is

a domestic know that requires the us to maintain its relationship. we use tie one. 0, the always oh feature or though is without any different magic recognition. however, the us and tie was the stage in a very close relationship, including the mandatory corporation. and right now we have a maybe a project that is, ties to the point magic economic in the military or corporation. so i think this no, we don't have to talk about the so cost to take your ambiguity because we see is actually a strong tie. oh, so i think for the toy needs, we have to assume that we have to fight for ourselves. not what we don't have to assume that okay, so others will help like, uh, the allies will help because the 1st 30 you have to build up a home or defense kind of be up to you. so it started very important and i think also uh i, i just got a reminder to meet a go that a to read the treaty over the peace with japan in 1951. it also, it is a treaty between japan and the taiwan. i mean the arrows, the government in 1953,

so just read them and you can still hear a lot of things don't do nothing major in your own word of the international. no, nothing. okay. well i want to stick with a hang of a st. victor of whatever that was signed between japan and the. 2 1 in the 1950s was already superceded when japan recognized the people's republic of china. and when japan embraced the one china policy, that is the cornerstone of china japan relations. if the japanese pardon the, i'm sorry for have not, premier was the risk of destroy trying law. japanese diplomatic relations fee will be held as a criminal by japanese law because he is doing huge damage to the fundamental interest of the japanese people by breaking away try lot japanese diplomatic relations with each other. okay. i was like, oh, how can i just take it? i wanna, i want to get back to the us relationship with taiwan. we've seen over the last 2 presidencies, but by the end and from

a forward you much close to times with taiwan and trump in particular, distancing himself from china. how big of a worry is that when both of them, the going to be going for the presidency, come november. thank you very much. yes, indeed, you can this, the funded for the fall. there is this presidential election in the united states, whether trumbull, by doing eventually wins. that's the decision for the american people. however, the fact that there is only one, china and taiwan is part of the china is carved install. whether it will be cromwell, it will be fine when it sets up, no one can change that mega trent and the parameters that talked about whether the united states will send troops to defend taiwan. it is a logical inc, decent in legal. why? why should the united states get involved in the resurrected single wall between the 2 sides of the pie was the street. the united states will have no study to find on one side of the civil war against the other side of the civil war. why should

the united states spill the blood, all the amount of his soul just fall, achieving taiwanese independence? a meanwhile war insult would you think the battery was the elbow piece of monitoring bench? it? is that impatient not the civil war? sorry, you are now using. i mean the, to the one trying the is the, on the papers, it's not aggressive of one country to another. it will be a civil war which will be like press lending goods or against the configuration is locked more between 2 countries. probably while we'll know about the top of the independent separate country. okay, i'm going to jump in here. thanks very much guys tonight. i'll hang on to say, i want to go to tell him he cut because victor mentioned before that we're almost at the point of no return. does it feel like that the in tokyo and what do you think is going to happen next? well, it's going to happen at the will of one single individual

she jane pain as many in the international communities still assume that economic build up is much, much more important for the chinese communist party and those days are over for a change in pain. it is the national security. it is the pride. it is a military that matter. 55 more than economic build up. perhaps it was hoped because china has growing so much economically. but less than until they can alex taiwan. they cannot fulfill the so called china's dream, which makes it even more difficult. i think whether or not a china invasion to a tightwad, he's no longer a relevant question. when and how would be the service rather than question?

saying you, i want to come to you now, what are the time when these people will because it feels like the country's been in limbo, stuck between these 2 superpowers, the us and china. what are the, how to the time when these people want this to play out and in the next couple of years? yes. so according to the property polls, so we see that the super majority of people, like 80 or 90 personal people are things that we, we want the so called state us. cool. and then the most interesting thing is that people, the fires data score in different ways. so most of people, the fines data score was the one what i mean. one country each site, i mean tie one is the side and the mainland chinese, another side. and because of the fact the gods doing since the ninety's ninety's, we have been democratizing. we like our own system with our own president, our own government. and we have the military, if you have a constitution with edward's name, every and a months old, but independent sovereignty countries. so people are now willing to defend

ourselves, defend our demo carter system. that means the state of the quote for most of people, people reject. it's pretty easy to use a proposal by china. now there is a one country tuesdays to and then also our government, the demo card. you did. you let the government be jacked? the proposal all the one china principal, which days taiwan is part of china. so we refused the way people that we pulled loads to resist the invasion of china. that is very clear of poverty pausing time one, i can fix it. we hear that this war is up to president. she, he's the one who's going to decide if there was an invasion or not. he is also, i said the ministry should be ready for a full scale invasion by 2027. what do you think is going to happen? how likely do you think it is that he will order an invasion in the us to come? the 1st of all president she didn't. p represents the full pallet, 2 of the chinese people, the people's liberation army, and the potty here in china is not acting. his own capacity,

succulent play to unify taiwan is not only something new. it is the policy of china ever since. 1949 when the national just the government fled from the mainland, china to i was so boldly pretend that this is something new. this test came over the overnight no. besides being consistent counties policy for the past 7 to 5. yes. therefore, please be assured. pay a while will be you re unit 5. we hope it will be achieved by peaceful means, but it provides you the and the separate is long to test. are you the will really testify you? because eventually may be achieved through non peaceful ways not. but the top one is probably noticed the talks about one country to a system. if they do not want to one country to system, eventually they will get one country, one system, ok, that's the high probability,

you bet, be per patch. okay, thank you so much for it to thank you all of you. we really do appreciate this very robust discussion and what is clearly a very sensitive topic thing you victor and tell me he car. thank you so much for joining us here on inside story. well, thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, l, just air a dot com for further discussion. go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i'll handle is at a inside story from the top of the crate in the whole team here. bye for now. the so that for this heading to the polls, what, what could be the biggest shakes up in the region in that case, with 30 is the african national. congress has held power. and now the party phase of this type of election baffled sofa join. us says when you live updates from

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