it seems, but the main concern is how these people are able to feel that live with detailed coverage hall teeth tooth has been on the heavy ariel from above and to months. now the residential building here is just been here from around the world, which we'll see here is a catch of mussels of the fisherman used to be able to get these just by going about 20 minutes from here. now we have to go out at least 4 hours. the china was conducting military exercises around taiwan, just as often lied to him too. it was swollen as the islands knew. president's vision has cooled, lie a dangerous separatists with the chinese actions main for the region. this is inside story, the color. welcome to the program. i'm told mccrae china has escalated the scale of its

military exercises in the taiwan strait over the past 2 years. while the united states has increased its rhetoric and support of the island, beijing times silver and t or the tie one which was seized by nationalist forces for tracing from the mainland when the communist took power in 1949. now the democratic progressive policy, which is championed a separate time when these identity has secuity a 3rd presidential term awhile policy leaders have turned down talk of independence . president slide true to a said in his integration speech, the taiwan is already a silver nation. by shooting has responded angrily with the latest round of military trails. so with this china go from here and how far is the united states willing to go and support of taiwan? will have more without pamela guess. i'm just a moment. but 1st, this report by imaging kinda chinese ministry drills involving the army, navy, and ethel sca ryan's taiwan just days off to the islands and the president used to

use a new gratian speech judge begging to stop its threats and aggression. the i want to call on china to seize, gets political and military intimidation against ty, one shave with taiwan, the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the taiwan strait, as well as the great to region and ensure the world is free from the fear of war marching talk such to continue freed, assess, has policies reiterating his commitment to maintaining taiwan silver and t something. china opposes title. sure. the regional tie ones independence is a didn't matter under what name or excuse pushing for time. one's independence is doomed to fail. china will and must achieve reunification. nice when marks the 3rd straight presidential term, the democratic progressive party, which maintains the island is called truly,

politically different from china. and promotes a unique harmonies, identity noises he supports the state, is quite a toy one for binding itself governed democracy. joya is rejected that calling him a dangerous separatist. it claims the island as its own territory to be taken by force if necessary. taiwanda, lloyd maines on supplies the us is one showing up against the military exercises people's republic of china represents a major challenge in many ways. they continue to pursue the largest piece by military build ups. since we're over to, we've routinely witnessed dangerous behavior from the people's liberation army, chinese coast guard, and their maritime militias throughout the south and east china seas. as beijing, they look to exert their excessive legal and revisionist maritime claims. beijing says us sales of arms to tie one undermine chinese territorial integrity. to washington's ministry exercises in the south china sea regional stability.

the tensions have prompted concerns about global supply chains. the island is a technology hub and major producer of semi conductor chips. a crucial component in a range of products from calls to mobile phones and target these companies, such as apple supply of fox cone, have a major presence on the mainland. any confrontation between the superpowers over the island could disrupt flavin economy image and came out to 0. the inside story, the let's bring in august now in taipei is a thing you chain who is an assistant professor of political science. it's through challenge university in beijing. victor down is vice president of the center for china and globalization, a leading a chinese think tank and didn't talk here to me. he goes kind of good. she is a special adviser at the gypsy future studies center. he's previously advised the

japanese cabinet during the sions are all by administration. thank you very much for being with us here on the inside story. we really do appreciate your time. thank you. can i please begin with you. you're in a tie. one were saying military exercises, time and time again from china, especially in recent years. did these feel different? i as well. i think tony is people are getting used to this and because we have been young, the threat of china for a very long time. so last time uh, especially the trinity trinity to meet with the original, which is a big arcadia of ty, one is at the top west. jade where we see that the all the word, especially the internet to meet the store, number's about that. but for the time these people will discuss mary, a routine. oh, follow daddy lives because the china law frying a lot of watches and the fido, just around taiwan strait and be, become a new normal. you know, thailand straight. i think that the people just get used to that and also people

have discussing about how to strengthen our own defense kind of beauty. victor, i don't mentioned that is the message that beijing wants to hear. and response of these drills at the people's liberation army said they are a strong punishment. the separatist acts, i mean, is that a total of reaction to the president? is a new gratian speech. you know, i think of, i think the speech made the countries as far as the one time a policy is concerned is cut them off to a declaration of war. he risks the peace between the 2 sides of the taiwan strait and cath, i need to do something to teach him a lesson. and to warm the separatist in taiwan that probably go beyond the point of no return. because otherwise, china, as demonstrated by this round, all the joints military exercises will decide to brought kate i want. and that's

what really campbell, the economy inc. i want and it will read the false lighting to the cold. because if he tries to resurrect the, i'll finish the civil war between the 2 sides of the power straight. even 1949, for example. that's what you will get. and if he wants to bring these all stuff to the people on both sides of the taiwan strait by this key, the so called a taiwanese independence or separatism, that's what he will get. and this is the against the people, the pie one. this is very focused on the separatist being probably why. now, even the world of today, no one can recognize both china and taiwan at the time at the same time because that's in violation of the one charlotte policy. any attempt to push taiwan into a separate sovereign independent country is that before it's stopped,

you and that's, but less than that child, i need to teach like to go. and if he really wants to become more and more desperate to push for the so called independence of ty, one, he will destroy peace across 2 sides of the taiwan straits. and he will bring crime . it is not only to the people in taiwan, but many of the stakeholders in this part of the world. we are at a critical moment. we need to promote peace rather than allow people like by asking to to destroy peace. okay, victor, thanks so much for the tell me how are you listening to all of that? do you think a, is this a declaration of war like victor outlines and how much dependent other regional players actually reacting to this is the whole region on edge. i think it's a quintessential mr. go who speak 6th stream, a rhetoric almost all the time. this is not going to invite or at all. mister go

has just spoken a long with the carefully crafted lines spelled out in the white paper. taiwan white paper issued in 2000 to $22.00, in which the chinese communist party said clearly that the so called, quote unquote, separate test must be removed, which is why mr. go is targeting at an individual the president low. but by the way, he is the president democratically elected on in the elections conducted very much in a peaceful way. taiwan is an exemplar of democratic process, which a lot of countries in the world should look up to. now, i want to bring up a match that was put out by the people's liberation army now, which basically outlines exactly with the drills being held. it basically shows uh,

the drills and circling the entire island thing. you. this obviously a deliberate tactic to try and intimidate taiwan. is it working? well, of, it's hard to say, how is, how is it? well, because last time i reduce the lat, uh, the people around the ward. i mean the boats and also the paint air pans. joe's the have to escape, i'm in to avoid to 5 through these regions because well, there will be miss alice and also with all the washrooms and the fighter jets. so yeah, it's not the only intimidation of taiwan, but also all, all around the world. i mean, yeah, it's a 2 because body, i mean you can see the body language of that. and i think that is a fact that the, i mean taiwan in the people's republic of china is not sort of stop holding a to each other. i think just to drop this fact however, i don't know why i try now just so angry about these basic facts. so they always use a lot of those different kinds. of course the i, brad has including the mino,

tory ones and also i think also send a strong message to the region allies including japan and also that sort of piece. so i think, well, it's not only for ty white, so last time they filed them new south into japan's economic zone. so i think that the, the whole region is getting this message gets, victor, isn't this reaction the show a force that we've seen from the p. i light. i mean, isn't this just playing into president lise hands he wants to reaction from badging and, and he's been given one? no, no, not at all. why? because the pad, notice being taiwan mentioned by the 2 sides of the power street. i'm not subjects subjugated to each other. does he know why? because the civil war which raged in china between 1947 to 1949, never finished. and ever since the beginning of the 198 is china as being calling for peaceful reunification. now what reaching to is doing is to rest the record to

the, i'll finish the civil war. it's a civil war. will start those off i want is clearly marked installed. it was occupied by japan between 1895 to 1945. and as part of the conditions for the japanese unconditional surrender, japan had to return taiwan to try and fix it as comp the install, the status of pay. why if we do not go further into the past, was laid down by the title declaration and the pots them proclamation, which form the basis of japan as unconditional surrender. therefore, japan has no reason, no justification, no part of vacation i call to get itself to be involved ink, the prostrate relations for whatever reason it's against the constitution in japan, it's against the tubs of unconditional surrender of japan to try that. and to be

like this basic 1945 and if japan, das to intervene in the cross street relations, for example, be prepared to stop up all the consequences because it is literally over tardy. and the verdict of the 2nd world war. yeah. hi, wasn't being part of china. is the coldest storm of the international all the we are the b. okay. picked it up. do you know, i guess we need to allow that. you want to overturn the magazine? i want to, i'm going to give the right, i want to get a pen and he co a, a chance to respond here. it told me he said, well, i know that you decided to jump in. what would you like to say? yes, the japanese unconditional surrender was issued towards the signatories. the chinese communist party was not one of those signatories. it was the convent on john ca shakes party. and so mentioning japanese attitude at the end of the

war has no relevance all at this point. and japan is its immediate neighbor, japan's discipline, from taiwan only by 109 kilometers. what ever happens in taiwan mattress, very much to the national security of japan. and indeed, the japanese new, the sick you with the laws have made it possible for the united states and japan to work as a unit in case of taiwan contingencies. and the philippines and japanese have uh, uh, recently started work very closely together. and i think that sort of korea and japan will also do the same. so make sure that the chinese should better understand that these sorts of media, terry exercises intimidation, that threatening actions could only lose international support and not the wind,

anything. before i want to move on, but a touch on something very briefly saying you, these a part of these drills are focusing on some of the small islands, only about 10 kilometers off the coast of china. how it risk of being annexed here by china and is that it worries in taipei right now as well. it is worried indeed because of this uh, remote islands are very close to china and very difficult to defend. however, we have already defending successfully in the 95th. these are the situation on these different right now. so try nice. now using more, the so called grades on activities to intimidate these items, including using song fishing boats to m e. enter some of the very close the water zones around these items. so into containment days of the people's baby life, their so they have already, i mean, trying to, i think to appear in the hall post any lives so well. there is no surprise at all.

and by this time, the drugs, the upgrade, the threats and evicted in the chinese beijing as a sort of intimate, that said this could be a prelude to, for the punishment as the chinese have put it to what sort of repercussions, what sort of fear the repercussions could we say, are we talking sanctions here? allow me to add a point. first of the distinguished panelists around japan mentioned the japanese are the kinds of those that are on the in 1945. he pretends to forget that after japan unconditionally surrender inc. time, ah, there was a civil war. the nationalist, the government was defeated and slides from mainland trying not to try was match the root cause of the separation of the 2 sides of the taiwan strait and the office of the civil war doesn't give any part of vacation, but probably wants to become a separate independent, sovereign country,

it is part of china as the japanese government, when the turner is one trying to whether japan recognizes tie why that's being part of china. if the problem is to bring japan says, no $200000.00 records advise that he is over tardy. try and lot of japanese diplomatic relations because the corner stone of trying not definitely is diplomatic relations, is for japan to acknowledge that there is only one china and try what is pop up chat. okay, i'll see you want to contradict the official policy of jen for these government. a call to 8000. don't have the coverage of the bravery to do that. okay, tell me okay, let me do this little victor, i'm gonna go ahead because i want to give to him. he kind of a chance to respond that you will have attending japanese china. china is relation . yeah, that is. thank you. there is one thing in common between the japanese position and the american position as regards the so called one china policy,

the tokyo government at the time, and washington dc as well, acknowledged that the chinese communist party says this and that, that's it. are they? they have neither neither united states nor japan has ever said that we subscribe to the chinese version of china policy. remember that she is shady, is tongue, kosh, checking $197172.00, also strongly mentioned, asserted that taiwan is a legitimate entry and legitimate entity in the international community. and so the united states and japan also took it back to consideration into that deposition as well. so the tokyo government said they acknowledged what the chinese communist party said. read the text, you bring up the united states. obviously, incredibly important here. i just want to give out to you was a bit of

a reminder of the u. s. policy on taiwan and washington switch diplomatic recognition from taiwan to china in 1979. a few years after then president richard nixon visited by using the us follows the one china policy which recognizes the people's republic of china as the sole legal government. but it only acknowledges beijing's position that taiwan is positive. china of this means the us has full relations with china and unofficial relations with taiwan. in the absence of diplomatic ties, the taiwan relations act provides a framework for relations and protects us security and commercial interests on the island. but the legislation is unclear on with the washington would defend taiwan against an invasion. this policy has come to be known as strategic and the give us a venue i want to go see you next. how confident is taiwanda the you with will actually have its back? if china does step up its military and actually invites taiwan as

well, after the 1979, the us has the taiwan relations act, which is a domestic know that requires the us to maintain its relationship where use tie one . 0, the always oh feature. although it's without any pro magic recognition. however, the us and tie was the stage in a very close relationship, including the military corporation. and right now we have a maybe a project that is tied to the problematic economic in the military or corporation. so i think this no, we don't have to talk about the so close to a teacher and the guaranteed because we see is actually a strong time. oh, so i think for those, how are these we have to assume that we have to fight for ourselves. not what we don't have to assume that okay, so others will help like, uh, the allies will help because the 1st 30 you have to build up a defense kind of the 2. so studies very important, and i think also uh, i just got a reminder to meet a go that

a to read the treaty over the peace with japan in 1951. it also it is a treaty between japan and the taiwan. i mean the arrows, the government in 1953, so just read them to hear that other things, docs do nothing major in your own word of the international. no, nothing. okay. well i wanna stick with a hang on a sec, victor, or whatever that was signed between japan and the. 2 1 in the 1950s was already superceded when japan recognized the people's republic of china. and when japan embraced the one china policy, that is the cornerstone of china japan relations. if the japanese pardon the, i'm sorry the have not, premier was the risk of destroy trying law. japanese diplomatic relations fee will be held as a criminal by japanese role because he is doing huge damage to the fundamental interest of the japanese people by breaking away try lot japanese diplomatic relations with each other. okay, i want to know how like,

i think the sake is i want to, i want to get back to the us relationship with taiwan. we've seen over the last 2 presidencies, but by the end and from a forward, you much close to ties with taiwan and trump, in particular, distancing himself from china. how big of a worry is that when both of them the going to be going for the presidency come november. thank you very much. yes, indeed, in this, the funded for the fall. there is this presidential election in the united states. whether trump all by doing eventually wins. that's the decision for the american people. however, the fact that there is only one, china and taiwan is pop up. china is carved installed. whether it will be cromwell, it will be fine when it's set up. no one can change that mega trent, and the pendant has the talked about whether the united states will send troops to defend taiwan. it is a logical scene, decent illegal. why? why should the united states get involved in the resurrected single wall between

the 2 sides of the pie was the street. the united states will have no spending to fight on one side of the civil war against the other side of the civil war. why should the united states spill the blood? all the might be the soul just full achieving taiwanese independence. a meanwhile war installed, you know, the battle, i think, is the album based on monitoring bench. it is that impatient not the civil war? sorry you are now using, i mean the, to the one trying the use of the papers. it's not a aggressive one can do to another. it will be a civil war. it won't be like present lending goods. no, i guess. but come for the ratio is loved more between 2 countries, probably why we'll know about the top of the independent separate country. okay, i'm going to jump in here. thanks very much guys, and then i'll hang on to say, i want to go to tell him he could because a victim mentioned before that we're almost at the point of no return. does it feel

like that the in tokyo and what do you think is going to happen next? well, it's going to happen at the will of one single individual she jane pain, as many in the international community. still assume that economic build up is much, much more important for the chinese communist party and those days are over for a change in pain. it is the national security. it is the pride. it is the military that matter. 55 more than economic build up. perhaps because china has growing so much economically, but less than until they can alex taiwan. they cannot fulfill the so called china's dream, which makes it even more difficult. i think whether or not

a china invasion to taiwan is no longer a relevant question. when and how would be the service rather than question saying you, i want to come to you now, what are the time when these people won't? because it feels like the country's been in limbo, stuck between these 2 superpowers, the us and china. what are the, how to the time when these people want this to play out and in the next couple of years? a yes. so according to the property polls, so we see that the super majority of people, like 80 or 90 personal people are things that we, we want the so called state us cool. and the mother, the most interesting thing is that people at the fires data score in different ways . so most of people defines data score was the one what i mean, one country each site. i mean, tie one is the side in the mainland chinese, another side and because of fact, the gold story since the ninety's ninety's, we have been democratizing. we like our own system with our own president,

our own government, and we have the military. you will have a constitution with edward's name elements over independence, sovereignty countries. so people are now willing to defend ourselves, defend our demo carter system, that'd be the state of the quote for most of people, people reject. it's pretty easy to use a proposal by china that is a one country tuesdays to and then also regarding the demo card you did, you let the government be jacked? the proposal all the one trying not principle which days taiwan is part of china. so we refused the way people that we pulled loads to be seized. the invasion of china that he's very clear of poverty pausing time want. okay, picked to we hear that this a war is up to president. she, he's the one who's going to decide if there was an invasion or not. he is also, i said, the military should be ready for a full scale invasion by 2027. what do you think is going to happen? how likely do you think it is that he will order an invasion in the us to come?

the 1st of all president she didn't, p represents the full pallet, 2 of the chinese people, the people's liberation army. and the party here in china is not acting. his own capacity. secondly, to unify taiwan is not only something new. it is the odyssey of china ever since. 1949 when the national, just a couple of months, fled from the mainland, china to i was so boldly pretend that this is something new. this just came over overnight. no, so far as being consistent. charlie's policy for the past 7 to 5. yes. therefore, please be assured. pay a while will be you re unit 5. we hope it will be a cheese by peaceful means, but it provides you the and the separate is long to test far. yeah. they will really testify because eventually may be achieved through not peaceful ways not. but the problem is probably noticed the talks about one country to system. if they

do not want to one country to system, eventually they will get one country, one system, okay, that's the high probability, you bet, be per patch. okay, thank you so much for it to thank you all of you, we really do appreciate just very robust discussion and what is clearly a very sensitive topic thing you victor and tell me he car. thank you so much for joining us here on inside story. well, thank you to for watching, you can see the program again. any time by visiting uh, website l just there a dot com for further discussion. go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x handle is at a inside story from the top of the current and hosting here. bye for now. the if you're watching this pre recorded report that al jazeera has been banned in the

territory, all is, well, we'll just scream or be any sway me when my country is closing down inspection towards the networks only because what additions being came here. this decision puts other networks where it came in the occupied was dying for inside israel proffer also independent journalist would be targeted. we, i thought just we shouldn't be aware of that as a badge of honor to be bad. might have the government that stands invited for genocide, national court of justice. the bold and i'm told stories from age and the pacific on out just era. the,

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