since we're receiving tedney, they all assist treatments in unless you are hospitalized, but they were also seeking refuge here with detailed coverage for the warranty. people have access to a leaders of water per day, but now everybody here gets between $2.00 and $3.00 leaders from the heart of the story. palestinian officials hold on to 0. that in situations like this is we will deduct the funds directly from customs catch the mexicans or preparing to vote in the largest selections in the country's history. the latin american nation is grappling with rising violence. dozens of candidates have been killed during the campaign. curious, what's behind the political violence in mexico? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm serial. then a, almost a 100000000 mexicans are eligible to vote in general elections on june. the 2nd, it's historic, not only for being the largest, both in the country's history, but because it's almost certain the next president will be a woman, current president, the address my new i lopez over door is unapologetically a populist. he's also expanded the military and the role that plays and society part of a pledge to crack down on corruption and organized crime. so have his policies improved the lives of mexicans? what problems will his successor inherits? will be asking those questions and more to our guests in a moment. first though, this report by michael apple of the 40 assigned on a former mayor of mexico city is the front runner in a historic collection. for the 1st time, 2 women are going hate to head for the presidency. she's been endorsed by outgoing president under is manuel lopez over the door. hello. yeah,

no is go to. claudia results corrupt. she's honest and very intelligent. she has a book to write and the most importantly, she has good feelings. she loves the piece of williams, and he can shine bottom is running under the banner of a lift, this national regeneration movement to cold motor. and now she's promised mexico's new, the 100000000 voters. she'll continue lopez over the doors, popular pro poor policies, the applied oh, it is clear to me, but my obligation is to lead mexico along as a pos. 2 peace, security, democracy and justice arrival associates. he'll go. this is the face of a broad opposition coalition. that's been outspoken about the oversized role of the military and the rise in organized crime. the run up to the election has been mowed by political assassinations with the killing of moments petite candidates in the past year. it's those standing for local office who a most often targeted but signed bond support is

adamant that while she could be seen as many offering more of the same policies, that's exactly what they want to moment that. but she's a highly prepared woman with the responsibility to continue with this project of transformation at the national level for more than 70 years. we have lived in, in justice, especially the most disadvantaged, to make up more than 70 percent of the population in mexico. simple questions to assist with assign baubles, step out of the pri, this is the shadow once he leaves office with the the undeniably popular lopez over the door was full of a hand in mexico's future for years to come. mike level l g 0 for the inside story . the that's bringing our guests in mexico city, carlos bravo. and the daughter political enlist, associate professor of journalism. you're specialize in history in contemporary

politics and mexico and the united states. thanks for being with us in washington dc. maureen meyer is the vice president in charge of programs at the washington office on latin america. that's an n g o. the promotes rights, democracy, and social and economic justice in latin america also, and mexico city sancho or its senior enlist on mexico with the international crisis group. you have lived in communities and mexico controlled by organized crime. you'll be telling us about that in just a moment. welcome to everybody. i want to start with carlos. so you're in mexico city, carlos, bring us into the conversation. the mexicans are having whether it's over coffee, over dinner amongst friends. how were mexicans talking? what are they saying about this election cycle? well, this, this is actually a very interesting question. what we've seen on the one hand is, you know, the mexicans do recognize the mix, the bag of results that you know, that this government has produced or for laughter paused. for instance,

you'll see that privacy and security is the most, you know, sensitive and concerning subject. and that people do not approve the performance of this government between 70 and 80 percent. and the other hand, social programs, cash transfer as part of the star of the show and people approve them, you know, along the same size of 7080 percent in other subjects, things go 5050. so it's, it's really a mixed up mixed judgment regarding government performance. but on the other hand, presidential approval is around the, you know, the low sixty's and it has been very stable. it seems that fund demik. so there is a certain b, sundance between the government performance evaluation and presidential approval. and these, these sentences translating into the electrode process because, you know, bolting intention for the presidential correlation for more than that is,

is, is higher. it's around 50 percent. and the question is why i never saw carlos and we also pause for a 2nd. we're getting, we're going to definitely get into the why, because you say there's, there's mixed reviews from mexicans right on, on this president a 70 to 80 percent disapproval of his handling of crime. and it's also the number one issue for mexicans that does sort of stand in contrast with the fact that the president is popular and the polls say his chosen successor is very likely the when the next election. that's. that's exactly right. and. and yes, it's a bit troubling when you, when you look at it, when you talk to people. but it, it starts making sense when you see that little bit sort of those popularity is not necessarily based on his results, but actually on what he has come to represent to many people on a certain, even defeated ation. he has bare particularly with the, you know,

when my job and these are poor or the already, you know, low middle class. and particularly with the fact that the traditional party, because the class in mexico and the traditional political parties are very discredited, very setting up at types for going to the noise. the very dependent upon the fact that all positions carry a lot of weight, a lot of anger from the past, people voted for change for a little bit. so when i go in 2018 and right now, you know the oppositional gundy that's got not wrong with the black. the form of change with the parties that just 66 years ago, people were voting against because they represent the change of the fact or the base of this outgoing president and probably his successor, right, claudia cloud is showing bomb is so fed up with the right wing that has run mexico for 70 years prior to this presidential term. they're so fed up with that that they are actually willing to forgive him for what they do of knowledge is

a at best mixed record on crime. did i get this right? yes. although i think the record does not play such a significant role and what place i think about a larger significant road is that i then defecation with the leadership of lopez so that i bought. and what she has come to represent as uh, i important and swift change regarding previous governments. okay, so, so personality politics plays a big role. mexico certainly not the only country where that's the case and lopez over door is, you know, is, is a strong personality. and political figure as a result of that left his populist, we want to talk about crime at the middle. it really at the heart of this selection because you, you did say this is the most significant issue for voters. and from the outside, looking in the numbers in terms of criminality, it just draw dropping. we just set up a 125 people killed in 2024 in politically motivated, killing. and that's really that this data comes from data civic. it's really quite

extraordinary. and taco, can i, can i turn to you on that? what is that conversation around crime as relates to this election? right. and we've talked for, i think, you know, you add a separation of policy and discourse on the presidential level and overall to the public. the page in the sense that um to have had a worsening consequence. busy he's just had a phenomenon in which criminal groups have been effective to be given to leeway over at this government and also the passport and to further dig into local economy is to dig into an institutional control into population one control. what do you mean and what, i'm, that, what i mean, they've got the leeway to expand their institutional control. all right, so essentially west side of the nurse and terms of policy formulation as through i'm call to wind criminal networks. how to systematically dismantle it from on

backwards. and there has been a recognition by many political leaders. that insecurity is a risky topic, true being proactive about to actually do something because it had a back pirate a number of times in the past. and i'm political figures happening, getting burned by up sticking to next, next out, and saying double fix security and actually trying to do that on the product. so instead, it's become a lot boils down to a p r issue. i'm guessing a break point during this administration that i'm, you know, it's hurt every day during the press pretty 1st by the president. and because people have things like going really well in terms of security and the direct quote is that there's peace and tranquility in the country and on the ground, according to our research separately from talk to the number of fi complex areas um multiple times some affect us, we've been given an officer to dial down on the most spectacular type of violence that can become an electrical and political problem in exchange for of greater leeway and how to govern the territory. so that has been offer off impunity. and

these groups, um, the leaders that we talk to told us very clearly that they have seen an opening for themselves to build, operate our assets, including by pushing into the city economies. i'm imposing protection records on agriculture, on industry, on local shops and so on. so forth, what are you sending me just saying? so you, so you're saying that the, it's the actual crisis group. and according to your research, what you're seeing is that the government is essentially tried to sort of cut a deal a little bit under the radar with uh, criminal groups saying, hey we, we want less of the high profile murders and an exchange. maybe. what does that deal, what are you saying? the deal is? yeah, essentially, i mean uh, you know, that happened this offer for them to lower. busy a bit more a to, i'm not murder as publicly, not be as an old birds about the claim of power in exchange for less operations including military operations being channelled that way. that has been to the

intellectual aspiration, this government because they entered this, you know, their administration with its huge security problems at their hands. and they're trying to find pragmatic ways for pacifying the country. now this aspirations, housing necessarily worked out because it's a reckon batch, the states still past this and from all of our retained power. but at the same time, i'm the number of groups to begin with. the groups that we have active next door has already exploded to a number of at least 200 something. so it's a bit of a part of the semester and criminal conflict pro presentation as well. it has become something largely, i'm so perpetual that the government has phones are very hard to control it. and just before i turn to you, maureen, the last one for you falco. what about the homicide rate? because the murder rate, because that's usually how you measure of success and failure of a security policy, right? my understanding is the numbers i have are a $180000.00 homicides during the presidency of a low under estimate of

a lopez over door, which is higher than his predecessors. if you're judging, that's if you're judging for the whole term. and roughly about 30000 is just dipped under the 30000 mark 30000 homicides a year, which is still very high by historical standards. so if you look at the numbers, it does not seem that his policy has was resulted in lower crime. yeah, the reality is on the ground can absolutely be question. how many do you have records of homicide number um total of the whole administration as already mentioned um, but at the same time officially, the homicide rate has begun to drop under this administration by a few coins. and that has been dues to then state publicly that things are going better now that we're moving on the right direction. right. uh okay, maureen, it's a, it's time we introduce our viewers to the hugs, not bullets policy, which this president, the outgoing president is, is,

is very well known for. he came into office saying we have to address the root cause of these criminal gangs. and the root cause according to him was poverty. so he said we, we, that is why we need social welfare programs. can you, can you give us a brief history of the hubs, not bullets policy. the policy itself, i think, came out of a debate slogan of you know, what, why he was going to shift policies away from what, from his predecessors were much more new. so for military confrontation with criminal groups, title, there's 2 important things here. one, upside or did dedicate more resources to both subsidies for core populations as carla, the social programs in terms of pensions for elderly scholarships, apprenticeships for young people, areas, issues aimed at particularly for young people trying to incentivize them to not be working with criminal organizations to not feel that need to be recruited by

a group. on the flip side though, the, the not bullets part has not been the case. and what we're seeing is actually an extreme expansion of the role of next goes military in security throughout the country. the creation of a new force, the national guard, which was meant to be civilian, but is in every way military run by, by the military and mostly composed of soldiers. so we've seen is still a very much a strategy based on deploying security forces. and really what's been lacking in this whole strategy is addressing the impunity that, that helps a little bit to the fact that you have currently 9 out of 10 crimes that go on, investigated or under reported in the country. and so if you are, have a system that is incapable of holding criminal groups accountable for their actions, that is not investigating the conclusion that you have between government officials and criminal groups, then those crimes continue to perpetuate because there's really no consequence to

the actions just like there's very the consequences to the number of candidates that have been killed or threatened if there's no investigation into those responsible. they're just going to continue to happen. so the, the hugs, not bullets policy kind of became if i, if i listen to it, you just said a hugs and bullets. it turned it to hugs and bullets policy and impunity, which, which of course wasn't supposed to be the case. um, carlos is that something that met is that high on mexican voters radar is that something that they care about? so they do care a lot about the security of, of the crime about extortion. but unfortunately, at the same time, this subject has become so normalized and it has, you know, been incorporated into the cost structure of, you know, smaller middle them big business into the everyday, you know, life of people that at the same time, even though they care for it,

a lot of people are not trying to serving the cost of this to the, to the party. currently government that there, there is a surprising, you know, small amount of punishment vote so to speak. because the other issues are in their mind and particularly, or their grievances up and eat, struggling and go. so because, you know, apart from security, their social, the fact that mexico has on has on the gun a process of democratic but slighting that, you know, ball after board would you see is that people do not care. i agree or do not understand it. so at the beginning, the opposition tried to campaign, you know, in the famous of democracy, but very early on, they realized these was a framing that was really not flying among the electra. and then they switched to other things, particularly to security. but that, that is also an issue that is very relevant not only for this election, but for the next government, a bold lopez. so what i learned a lot will be

a shame have brought it deliberately explicitly to the bottom of the so called plan c, which implies reforming bold electro institutions at the supreme court. we have, which has been the most important check on this government. are at stake. you know, in this election, it, this does not mean that democracy will, will end in mexico. it is certainly under threat. it has resisted. but if we say it has resist, they've decided precisely because it has been, you know, under attack and these attacks would get, you know, a lot stronger. it more than that has a strong showing. and they could argue that, you know, these issues were on the ballot and people supported them. yeah. that invented to, to carry out constitutional changes. they would need a super majority in congress, which i believe the polls are saying they probably will not get again, is just polls at this stage, but probably they won't get it. maureen in carlos was talking to us about democracy, which is really the big picture that, that i wanted to focus on with you. you work on democracy in social justice. what

is the impact on democracy when you have such high levels of criminality when they are as sancho was telling us imbedded, you know, so deeply into the fabric of, of local politics especially what does that do to a country? and i think on, on the media it is citizens not being able to vote for their candidate of choice. sometimes they are holding for the candidate that was imposed on them by organized criminal groups, which i think we're seeing at the municipal level, including candidates, obviously that have been killed. that may have been someone, you know, wanting to vote for that candidate. so there's a lot of who people are actually voting for that, that matters on election day because of violence. you may see people in parts of the country that don't go to vote because they're too afraid to, to go out to the polls or to serve in the electoral pulling stations themselves, thinking they need it. and there's that. but there's the longer term impact of what does it mean when your local may here, or the congress person doesn't represent your interest or the interest of

a local community as much as organized criminal groups. and that then deviates resources to, you know, allowing criminal activity to, to expand, to determining, you know, where public works. money is getting invested in corruption issues there. there's a lot of concern, i think of the longer term impact of what does it mean when criminal organizations control for the most part, certain local governments. and what does that mean for the citizens, so that have very little records to feel safe and to decide who can you and denounce a crime to if the people you're, you know, confronting are part of the problem. right. and if they're not representing the voice of the voters, that completely subverts the whole principle of democracy and elect oral representation. falco we set at the top of the show that you actually lived and you have to explain this to us in you. you embedded yourself as part of your research earlier in your career, in a community or multiple communities. i don't know. you'll tell us that we're run by

organized crime. i don't know if any of those periods in time covered intellectual campaign. but can you tell us what that was like, what you saw, what's on the ground level? yeah, absolutely. so um i was doing research for my ph. d at the time about 13 years ago . and i ended up living in detroit con. um, sort of like a cradle off of organized apartments for kind of a high crime state. so i renamed some of them are violent ones and i'm just 2 or so black or bad luck. i mean, yet on my, on this up i'm saying, or i'm extended periods of time in those communities and actually uh, when i was on the ground the 1st time we had the 2012, so back choose. and so it was, that was, that was a very colleague in terms of state crime overlaps as i'm reading, just described. because essentially i was having a number of conversations with political operators, with officer bodies, buffalo officials, but also personal leaders called and its templar at the time that the other members

of this group. and they're all telling me that for them. essentially, the most crucial resource for them to have to stay afloat, reprint of interest was gaining access to the state including to investments. and so do you like for process and by striking deals with a different levels off the candidates and political parties. so we talked to listen to their methodology and we've continued this conversations overtime, and so it's not us how that game has changed. so how do we do it? you say, striking deals with elected officials or candidates and political parties, how do they do it? is it, is it, do they bribe them? do they threaten them? how does it work? and there's a mixture off of techniques that can apply essentially. so the most basic is pumping money into campaigns, is i'm sending you candidates for to something we're seeing more frequently in these days, into the rates. so you don't us co opt, you actually take the institution and to control directly by candidates. and a board is very, very important for them as well is to pass social control of the local populations . because essentially it's to control those populations. you can tell them who to

vote for. and that brings and bargaining chips to have traits of blocks of both to, to trade and disney plus change. and the other key inside here, i think of staff we often see and produce looks like an image about that is the bad guys to sir typical back us the car towels photos for pushing into the state, taking the states, but to have a great open just by state uh, functionary, as by state officials and by candidates and for the parties as well, to play along and through. i'm try and seek their to approve of interest as well. so with these types of deals, so it really flows from both sides. i wonder just before i take it back to carlos, do you have a number of how much of the country is compromised in that way? i asked because i read a number and estimate as high as 20 percent, but it may no longer be accurate. i mean, it really depends on how you define control in this context, right? because they have very i right, the difference of negotiations between state and crime sometimes to have from the

groups um controlling the show at them on a separate level in certain states. another area that's the move up the matter in terms of state power to the governance level, to the federal level, different greater degree of power and those dose ations and more of leeway a by these higher levels of state. and so the relationship changes. i want to see lot, so the joint venture spits on both sides. but it really depends on each side where, you know, i'm to what degree from what those actually controlled thing and a system generally speaking, i think it's also seen as a lack of control by particular actors. as i mentioned before, we have or out a 200, i'm the groups actor from that or one pushed into the states. so this relationships between both sides have become really unstable and that brings a lot of filing, a process in carlos, you mentioned that a lot of his violence has become so normal, so normalized to mexicans and mexican voters. i wonder do, is there a feeling? is there a genuine hope among mexican voters that this can change because it's true,

the country is become almost anonymous, right? with drug related violence that just seems into every facet of the countries governance. and i'm glad you asked this question because in previous administrations where violence was, you know, was growing was deal at very high levels. there was at least a certain posts militarization horizon. you know the minute or is it isn't a public security happened in many instances because police forces where are unable or unwilling on capable of really pulled up, putting up a fight that can start by organized crime. maybe because of they are, you know, fire power because of their, you know, numbers in terms of personnel for a, for a variety of reasons. but military session was always, well, the last the incense, but we need to do this. but all the ways, both under fully because they're on and under a good beginning of the previous presidents, there was always this idea that ok, we're doing this as an exceptional nature. but you know what?

we're trying to train new police forces. we're investing a lot of money, you know, to have at some point i see the fords ready to take over and that you know, that pulse militarization. verizon was abundant on that a little bit. so what other or these forces have really been, you know, put aside in a lot of states, we have military that are the secretaries of security at the state level. but also they may need municipal level. and the somehow implies that we have giving up on the fact that, you know, this was an extraordinary and exceptional measure. and it has become the new norm on. this is from the policy side of the equation from the population side of the enough they may lead time. is the parts very high. somehow people, you know, say, well, this is the, the only resource we have. let me tell you have a good reputation in mexico because they, you know, participate that even a lot of efforts when there were natural disasters. and they are

a vehicle of social mobility. so in spite of human rights violations, in spite of corruption, despite you know, a lot of what focal was sitting about companies between now before we design the military, this has also help the government to militarize even more with very little political cost. so i think the status, you know, from both sides, from the policy side and the appropriate population side, these has become, then you, norma, even though the results are far from going to be this has, if you still know me, of a tragedy on the one hand it seems that this is the only alternative we have was that we still have remaining and the very same time. we know this alternative will not provide the results that we can say i are improving things. okay, we're going to leave it there. um, carlos, thank you very much. i want to thank all our guest, carlos bravo, and i see the marine, myra, and focal ernst, the joining us. thank you all for your time. thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website down to 0 dot com. and for

further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash h a inside story. you can also join the conversation on the x. the handle. there is an agent inside store for me, so then you're in the whole team here in doha bye for now. the of former film and for you to stop. traumatized by eastern few knows more of independence, but determined to turn tragedies to accommodate this comic genius concealing his own. more scholars creates a fictional character which uses happiness to chase people's taking away the witness. this is the reality on that jersey. on june, 2nd, mexicans head to the polls to elect

a new president with 2 leading female candidates. the country is points to make history. what can the new leader, tackle escalating violence color to mexico presidential election on al jazeera? the,

the, the hello, i'm robot. this and this is the news on life from bill coming up in the next 60 minutes, charge of bodies on destruction in gaza. israel's air strikes caused cottage of the camp and drop on climbing the lives of at least 45, thomas canadians. the attack draws global condemnation, israel's prime ministers folded up subject mistakes were also getting reaction from the white house with israel attacks of alpha. again, this time outside one of the few.