[000:00:00;00] news . ringback the president, but all of them is that on skis, hoping a piece some it will return the world's attention to you. friends will with russia for roches, nothing vice it and some major will of late is on coming on the chance of success. does it have? this is the inside story,

the hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a than a pay summit launched by ukraine. looks in trouble even before has begun, present, and below the base that landscape has off global lead us to attend the talks in switzerland in june, but without much success. so far you see the us present, joe biden is planning to skip the gathering brochure hasn't even been invited. the leaders of china, india and brazil may not turn off. that's left a minister scrambling to find the solution. with his rouse wall raging in garza and russian and ukrainian troops, locks in what looks like in this style night cave is desperate to keep world attention on the conflict home. want kind of hope to achieve. if moscow isn't there, why hold a, somebody says some of the world's most influential players onto on board will bring in all guests in a moment. off of this report by imaging can it's

a peace conference on the war. and ukraine is set to be held in switzerland, in june, bought along with some high profile names. russia won't be the president wrote him, is a lensky. once global need is to buckets, 10 points slammed the piece that includes measures on you can have safety, food security, electron, russian war crimes, on a withdrawal of russian troops. some of you crying the us as it will be represented, but possibly not by president j. pardon, zalinski says his absence would benefit russian president vladimir putin yahveh, shy, strippers done by them. i think the peace summit needs president biden, and other people who are looking at the response of the united states of america need them via, if he's not present, it will be just like applauding boots and few personally applauding and doing so. standing the landscape also appeal to johnny's president, changing ping to attend the beijing says would support a conference that includes russia. well, they're in mesa and junior officials in durham,

brazil say they might do the same european commission president us live on the line . german shots that are left schultz and other european leaders are expected to join. more than half of the 90 countries likely to attend a european. zalinski is also been granted at least $3000000000.00 worth of financial support along with 30 f. 16 fighter jets from belgian spain in sweden. but he says this country needs more. russia is continuing to push deeper into khaki and don't, that's stretching me crazy. you know, me say, lensky says the reason russia was most invited to the tools is because most go doesn't one piece. russia says it's open to tools, but it's also criticized to summit st presidential elections and ukraine around which you can use. now of course we realize that the digital and see the of the incumbent hate of ukrainian state has expired. i think that one of the aims of the forthcoming conference in switzerland is such as the wisdom community,

the sponsors of the key for g. my east coast, confirmed the letter to mercy of the acting head of state, or rather already known acting confusions. switzerland says the tooks only the beginning of a peace process, but some people are questioning whether that can start without the involvement of the main adversaries. and major world leaders. imaging kimber out to 0, the inside story. the, well, that spring and gas to on pack all of these issues, we have joining us in moscow. andre federal. he's a former deputy foreign minister of russia and now the chairman of the fund for political research and consulting in london. don't me to the most. so is a senior lecture and conflict and security at kings college london. she's currently working on a book on the complex russian ukrainian relationship since 1991. and in case of faith is a life of the executive director of the ration democracy initiative and the political

commentator. welcome to the show, if i could start with pizza. so is this really a peace conference when russia isn't even invited? one, the same time rush i had sent to all sorts of savings that people did not want to be invited and it did not plan to participate from the get go. so that's just something that we have to understand. you know, also, i think we all repeat expectations. so then, you know, 70 countries had agreed so hard to participate and the printer goes away as he is now communicating that after his efforts to draw supports for this event, the figure i'm pulling in is now closer to 90. i don't think that we should to, with too many expectations on the, on this highly symbolic, very important event. but once again, symbolic it back. nothing will be decided there probably. and these, the last is overarching goal, is to send a signal that it's not just the western countries are back. the phrase bought

a sizable chunk of the so called global style, where the arts and mines and waste this vicious battle. now, with the you printing is less than the allies on the one hand and rush out the china and some other countries badly for that you know, a hearts and minds on the global south. so i think that if we do get a sizable portion of latin american countries, african agent countries, that would be a victory of sorts for you. great. okay. interesting that use the word symbolic that let me take this question to andre and moscow. what is the symbolism that is likely to be seen in moscow? would it be seen as an attempt to riley the world against russia? first of all assault of cimbawe. busy event, it's impulsive and from many points of view, and of course a lot. so it will depends how many concepts will be present and what's the level of best. i don't fix it that the present by them can jump from easily to switzerland for

a couple of hours because this confidence of continuous solo signs of this. so the most important thing for russia and why is this confidence is the 7 russian? is because zillow landscape is trying to create a rather wide police co platform for the support of his piece formula. i unfortunately have to say very openly that a restaurant piece formula formulated by president pollutants cannot gather more than 5 confidence behind. so of course, uh is it ask you, we'll play later on on. this fact is that rather broad spectrum of countries are supportive, she's point of view. and of course, it's not the as it just the some way in the middle, this process because at this stage, both a ukraine's approach and most close approach thought that a 100 percent difference. and there is no bridge between them. and unfortunately,

at this moment, no one can build ops is breach. okay, interesting. don't the tele, ultimately then, is this really not a peace conference, but rather a conference to riley countries around ukraine's negotiating position so that when at some point hopefully peace talks, thoughts that ukraine feels it's daunting with much stronger global backing? is that really the point of this conference? yes, i think that's one element of the space called friends besides sort of sharing with as many countries as possible that you create a young position the right in front of you. so trying to run even beyond the fine lines of agreement, so that more agreement is found among hundreds of the points that have been put forward by the skis formula. the stronger the position is off a new brand. eventually, you know, more sort of direct

a process of negotiations with russia. so on the one hand is to show that the broad support that to be kind of, um you great. yeah, these initiative got have and that's where it's noticed that it is not limited only to the countries that directly not supporting the crane globally, but also that it includes countries in the global south, potentially china, india, brazil who even who they are not going to send their told me that they might send representatives to 8 away and show their support to many of the pointing these initiative. so i think the they are and i, i don't think it should be seen uh only as a symbolic symbolic event. i think it also has a very strong sort of political message that could be sent. interesting. i want to go back to, to andre and moscow and ask this question because he mentioned that this is not symbolic. this is an important event. but if we don't see a lot of

t will lead this showing up. might that send the opposite message about how interested the world is in supporting ukraine? how important is it you think that the number of world leaders a no, no it's it's so it's very important 1st of all because uh, there will be no any kind of final documents which to, besides by well, leave is etc, etc. and so for us, the fall conference which will discuss the different sides of that kind of coverage conflict between russia and ukraine, that it doesn't matter by the way, if china will be on the level of foreign minister deputy foreign minister. because the most important for you, great, and for many other countries, how many flex we will see how many flights we will seats. and um, the most important of course is the understanding. and i think that this conference will try to make a kind of go from the stand it if in the 3 a piece stokes up also. busy not,

this is the most important thing because as i mentioned earlier at this stage, positions of thought to the difference, and no one can seats on the table. unfortunately, both kiff and moscow, i reject things the idea to stop in a good faces for a blank page. and this is, by the way, idea of chinese, that's the best solution is for 5 negotiations from blank page to remove a few days existing, the bonds from every sides. then surprise, the finds some coma, low some corporate language, some points off agreements and to see what is brought to this agreements remains. all right, let me go to pete, pete. what does then do you think represents success for this conference? do you agree with andre? that is, is it, the number of flags is the number of leaders? is it a commitment of support? what would you look at in this company to say yeah, it take the box or it didn't?

yeah, i think the figure is very important. you know, with the more the merrier as the say, uh yes, uh, by engines and not in the show which we don't have a confirmation of. uh, will be sat. uh, if we cannot rule it out in the presence of this. yes, kind of reacted. quite emotional already, he said gladly if we would be holding it, why he didn't show up. i'm not sure if we should go that far, but i understand the motion of our president did want to shatter this event or it's important. so when i say symbolic, yeah, it does not, i don't mean to diminish. it's important. you know, in that symbolism is a 1st class that's kind in then don't forget that it would lead, hopefully in the spring. but in the fall to a meeting of saudi arabia where russia dos plans to attend. so this could be a stepping stone. so yes, i think overall this figure is very important. and when we talk about the other alternative plans, the planet is now proposing, we have to be very,

very wary of what's at stake. and the western leaders understand that is like negotiating with us uh, with a snake. who knows nothing but to bite you. we have precedence up a level when russia was bombarding a level and behind that was on behalf of it's trying to push it aside and it was supposed to be negotiation going on. same thing in 2015, you know, as what claims that he was ready to negotiate. he was bombarding cds in the drop box. same thing. now. he's talking about a piece plan and stuff by piece dogs. at the same time, directing direct shoes on a civilian infrastructure in the car to place essentially trying to follow the, you know, the example q set and the level of trying to destroy that cd or failing that make the, or, you know, residents of this 1000000 a strong cd evacuated. that is exactly what's happening. we have to be very aware of these a piece proposals. but let me,

let me jump in the pizza analysis question. the, the line from russia we've had, at times, is that they've also had strikes launched from ukraine onto russian tote tree on to non military installations, at least in, in one case and apartment block being hit with civilians, dine that russia blamed on ukraine's not. is it not a case of both sides trying to undermine the all those ministry position so that they go into peace talks with the up behind the gate? yeah, i'll just say that you know, of that with, with knows, the claim that you create was behind this uh, you know, uh, ices, so ordered attack on the prophecy, the mold in moscow a couple of the a couple of months ago. so he does not really prevent russian propaganda. he's sort of notions of decency, did not prevent them from eventing while conspiracy the same thing with the requisition that the plane is targeting stability infrastructure there, you know,

they're just in beta inventing alternative information or reality. you bring to never recognize that you know, and it's this high probability that russia itself instigating orchestrated that attack on the apartment block in bel. andre, i'm going to come back to give you a chance to weigh in on that and also ask the question if you're gonna address it of the likelihood that this leads into a meaningful sort of next round of talks inside the radio or anywhere else. as such, the fall is such as is not clear. what does this mean? confidence in saudi arabia because for rational side, the comment is that we didn't hear about this proposals with the overall. what is this uh, the place is not. so we bought them the, well, the problem is that content, as i said a, today's stage positions totally different. and the question is what,

what we're searching for always searching for piece 3 p a which will fix the borders between you bought the rough. uh oh, ukraine. all, we're searching for a peace agreement which will not fix the mode is about flu. she will be a kind of temporary solution. for example, like it's a basically address in japan. we don't have the full is the case. we don't have peace treaty, but we have a says i agreements, etc. so this is the main question and the question is from rational side is west, not too grand. if, if west will be ready to recognize you russian motors. this is the key issue without frequently so from the west of you or i from motors will feel will not go to any conference that and let me put a critical question to you to as well. andre fine may from the crime in perspective . the question is very simple,

russia should expect the international board as an international law. uh, okay. uh, it's fairly quickly. yes. that's what i shall not recognize the existing but as a few gray and rough seas insisting that ukraine and. busy the west to recognize current realities and maybe future advantages. which means that uh, one of the main goal of this special mr. operations. and of course, to have come from all over the whole equipment that are 3 of the whole country. tomicello is that, realistically speaking, much incentive for either side to really engage in serious discussions before both sides really reach a point where they convince militarily on the ground. that this is a style night which cannot be changed or anything. we haven't reached the fine which was usually for not heard instead of made. i think that from the russian

point of view, there is a perception, but now they're in a stronger position military really advanced on shiver upfront and starts. we know to then also try keep also neighbors around the don't boss that putting pressure around are the area separate easier. so i've seen the russian is probably seen that now is a moment where they can exert more pressure on i've gone side of the and potentially if they enter negotiations, get substantial concession from craig. they, you know, going to have a very difficult time, as we know, they haven't received the necessary equipment of the emission. they have not been 82. he effectively sign a russian directory because of several strange medium poles. my time of the countries that are providing a to ukraine, particular united states, but also germany. so they have face up do setbacks on the front lines and they're in a very delicate position. they're not waking to bet uh edition that may result from

the west. and that also includes the stainless ex sixties, which are now i, the grange. we're back to control space on china's so i'm on the russian sort of an operation. but, but it's difficult to see how this is going to come out. so you bring and have more to be they way i had a couple of months, they received almost substantial amount of western media placement. so there is a big of a window of opportunity warehouse. my price, let me go. she ation, it knows that it's going to get all the concessions i get wants and these include not only issues around the, the extract us, all the new, so coin voters by the old. so that, for example, ukraine, we made neutral. but there is some of the drive ation be greatly certainly not ready to accept and i have a sense that ukrainians respond. but john, 100, are still you ready to continue find to?

i'm the result probably that if the west provide for additional my to you material nausea to hit inside russia, especially on the neighboring areas. that then uh, you know, it's going to be um, you know, to position to engage. and the key point don't to that, let me take it to 2 kids and ask peter with the indications coming from the west that we, we have been hearing recently about the talk about maybe releasing some of the restrictions on how you crime they use its hardware with the, the end of that pause we soul of supplying ukraine with weapons from some of the major backhoes does that all of that really create more of an incentive for ukraine to wait and try harder on the ground before really engages in a diplomatic or political process, all right, well, you know, no one is it under any illusion that ukraine will be able to stage a another kind of expensive at this point. i think at this point the goal is to make

a for the balances on the part of the russian army india advantage or too costly to honor as for what we need to kind of complete their continuation at any yes uh you know, uh you paid that bill it teacher hit deacons, advisors territory to hit military guidance. that would be a significant fool. but once again, let's not expect any kind of home. there won't be any kind of miracle weapon will miracle solution. if that happens, the russian has been actually able to neutralize a lot of the american made it munition, it was behind me or as long it's an attack inside and it's skylar. so by jamming essentially, so we constantly have to be update even finding new solutions and the plan is already doing it on its own. some of the roles now can reach as the best to a 1000 kilometers into rushes territory. so that may be part of the solution, but once again, there's no single silver bullet in all of this. uh, it has to be some started out for the west has to stop be so concerned about

atlantic with these red lines. when we cross or red lines, we decided to go like dest international world water, and the west should stop worrying about the uh, platinum. it is, you know, stressful concerns. let me take a point to andre and moscow and say, also looking at what's happening on the battlefield in the ground with russia recently having made advances. does russia have more of an incentive to keep going and see how far it can go before it will commit itself in a serious sort of peace, negotiation or political process? it's a quite a resorted question. because since the beginning of the year, the russian army took on the control only 660 square kilometers, which is not a lot. because for example, that as a to 10 or 3 off kind of goals is that the city is city not through without,

without sub ups is 350 square feet. let me ask the question, is i don't think andre, maybe a commodity came on a so i can go further of this thing is of course uh that they need to go further, but i had to go past quite the see there's defense slide needs and his brothers, because uh there was no defense line or you claim defense lie, you know, the russian border. the main question is about a possible use of us u. k. frogs, besides all colors, there are some that are very deep interactions, better 3 as it was not by child support. and yes, so they mentioned that some countries should think about the current situation as expert. so they might ask us to the comments up here. she meant the blog but as a possible strike back. so we are standing going to live at

a dangerous edge of the situation and it's not kind of golf. it's not done because we are entering the situation when a strikes a strategic strikes from both sides could this. busy busy in through europe, in war even more or even more to dump a tele there was a reference to the global south in this discussion. all we about to see other countries in the global south pipes launch their own initiatives. it's been some talk about china and brazil, putting together threatened events or initiatives or conferences when we now have the chinese i've been uh, promoting, uh, trying to do it for the proposals. and so far they haven't really produce much results. i think what we need to bear in mind is that they're kind of creating, such as china, in particular that could really potentially exert pressure on russia to come from lines. that would be really very important. but i really don't see at the stage any

other countries from their so called global to solve being effective in promoting of tactful negotiations. i think the only country that so ha, had succeeded in reaching or in brokering agreements around the grain deal was talking on that eventually didn't really succeed because it was, it was interrupted by russia and last year. the problem to a certain extent was resolved because the premiums were able to dislodge the name and the presence of russia in that area, and to virginia exporting to the black sea to be ready to start their state of control. and so i think that it's, it's, it's very difficult to see that the, i propose that that comes from the south. i really haven't really thought, i think what is ready, but we're going to see the solve in the fact that these countries put online, i suppose,

many of it points in the last 2 decent reasons. i got it right. so i can tell you what i like. i'll let you finish the sol very, very briefly. yes, i just would like to say that there are a few elements in the piece. i remember i forget the support on the scene to the issues around the question or for security around your safety around somebody do an issue. and also a very important point is a question now of recognition. all the internationally recognized. all right, so this is the point where we could see support from the global to solve. all right, i think we've got about a minute let's, i'm going to try and give 30 seconds each of those 10 andre pizza, a final fold. and to what extent, what happens next depends not on the position of china or has done with as going to tell it was explaining, but also obviously the united states and the relationship between the 2. very briefly. while there's really, once again, i think it's, it's really up to the west to decide whether you know that it's really his own

words, but just don't want to rush, i guess, be great, or a defensive experience, borders, etc. no, it's a civilizational fine. uh, and it's up to the west to step in or not, right, the west failure ukraine will have significant repercussions for the entire well. all right, and andre, i'll give you a final thoughts in 30 seconds. despite all that piece of faults, we are standing in front of the new stage of confrontation, m, you stage of moving towards the wall. beyond the motors or freshman you create ok of a learning sort. let's hope set to that piece prevails. and why is the thinking prevails on all sides. thank you very much to, i guess andre feather of the, to the side of the most. so, and pieces on my of, i'm thank you to for watching. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website out to 0. don't com for further discussion head over to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com forward slash

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