she has made games in the european parliament selections, seriously threatening main screen positions. so what's behind the rise in popularity in europe and how could that shape politics from the old country? this is inside the hello there and welcome to the program. i'm the stalls you'd pay. now you're paying for right policies made substantial gains in the european union's parliamentary elections and france and germany policies that were once considered to be on the fringes, on out establishing themselves is viable challenges to the establishment. so what's driving this shift and will these policies be able to time their successes in these european elections, into power at the national level? well, there's not a panel in just a few moments, but fast can do them on a hand, has this report. a major breakthrough for europe spar right.

the alternative for germany or at the party was among those celebrating their best ever results in european election. think of yours. i think this is a historic result. awesome. if you a pain election, we've come seconds. my friends, super francis bar, right also had much to tear about the national riley, one more seats and boats than any of its rivals. it was enough to problem present emanuel macro on the course, not parliamentary election. so this is you, a gauze ruled. this is a serious some way to decision, but above all, it is an active trust and confidence in you, my dear compatriots, can the ability of the french people to make the just choice for themselves and for future generations. it bodies in the us from the rise of europe's far right has been linked to people struggling with the rising cost of living and growing

concerns over immigration. about 300000 irregular arrivals were recorded in the block in 2023. and since russia's invasion of ukraine in 2022, europe has been hosting more than 6000000 ukranian refugees. but despite the far right gains, many of europe's leaders say, support for centrist parties, remain strong in the face of challenges from the political extremes. and this is why the world around us is in turmoil. forces from the outside and from the inside trying to do the stabilize our societies. and they are trying to, we can europe. we will never let that happen. while the far right has made major games, european elections are not national elections. and whether these parties can turn their electrical them into, into political power, as you have to be seen, been to them all in elgin sierra for inside story.

well that's now bring in august and paris. we have janine the giovanni, she's a foreign policy analyst on the correspondence from oxford in the u. k. we have casey brown. she's a postdoctoral fellow at menath university. her research focuses on the fall, rise in front italy island and the u. k. a. welcome to both. thanks for joining us on our own female panel today. so now i'm going to start with you case because i want to, to look at the results that we've seen so far. and the reaction mean the main headline has been this the shift rightful ins. but given the expectations of what could have happened, i understand there's also been a fair amount of relief in brussels, casey to yeah, i think, i think there is a need to be cautious about how we frame these results. and because i think that a lot of the major coverage has a, in a emphasized a shockwave o. and this huge shift um,

but i think we need to be careful that we don't emphasize the magnitude of these results because it can play into the hands of the far right by high paying their importance. we need to remember the european elections a 2nd order elections. so that means that there is generally less a there to turn out. and so even though some of the figures might seem alarming, if we take into account abstention and we get much smaller proportions of the body team population that voted for the far right. so while of course we need to think about the potential dangers but it poses, we also need to account for the fact that many people didn't vote. and so that they hyped a emphasis on these. and these results can be a little misleading case here says a 2nd order election. i know in these kinds of elections. if voters don't feel that

there's necessarily a direct consequence for them. and in their day to day life, in terms of national policies, that they, they might be a bit of a, a push back against the incumbent policy. so this could have been, in some cases a, a bit of a rebuke rather for the less rather than a votes necessarily for the right. is that accurate? i mean, i think we can interpret to as a rebuke, potentially, of, and the sort of mainstream politics. and because i'm that stealing to kind of a set a, a, an alternative in a lot of scenarios including to the far right. so we've seen a main stream politicians such as a set of on delaying and normalizing far right issues through the pact on migration and asylum for example. so i think we can view this and more as a review of the offering that we're seeing in the center and the

necessarily this, um uh, support for the fall. right. so let me bring you enhance your name because katie there is referring to what seems to be almost the main streaming of, of some of the rights agenda over the last few. busy is particularly as she mentioned on migration, and i'm wondering whether that move has potentially contributed to this, these results or do you feel that, that what used to be considered a fall rise, engender, is now regarded as possible mainstream? you know, i mean actually i, i disagree with it because i'm deeply concerned. i am european. i also work within the realm of foreign policy, largely in ukraine. i run a n g o there. war crimes unit called the reckoning project, but also in the middle east. and i've worked for many years on refugee issues, most notably during the syrian crisis which brought so many refugees to europe, which didn't trigger so much of the far right reaction. so for me,

i am looking at this through a lens of a global list. i'm seeing trends of popular more populous governments. america. i just came back from 3 weeks working in washington dc. i'm deeply, deeply concerned that trump is now much more of a viable option than it was before. i believe these, these selections will empower him in any way as well as voters in america. but also i think more importantly, we have to look at something really significant, which is where these roots came from. they came from use. right. so a lot of it came from young people who don't read newspapers anymore, but they're on chip talk. and george and bar de la the, the french um, who is a, has lead univ marine la pen successor is very much of a, a product of chick talk and of instagram. he's young, he's 28 years. busy he's fresh faced, he has very little political experience. so,

but the votes, the french, she used to have very much shown that they are tired of a stablish man. so same in germany, which is interesting. everyone thought the far right was going to be crusty kind of skinheads. but it's not. i mean, there was a recent incident on an island in germany, a wealthy island where young people weren't shown singing far right, songs and slogans. so i think we need to see, look at carefully where it's just coming from. it's also not new. you know, it didn't come out of no where it's been coming for decades and you know, 20 years ago in france, in 2004, there were riots on the outskirts of france, which were very much of protest of use is largely immigrant children of immigrants from africa and north africa feeling very disenfranchised with society. so i think now we're coming into a period where france is extremely vulnerable, with the wars both in ukraine and in gaza. and perhaps the threat of church

detracts. and of course, the olympic games coming up 3 weeks after the new vote that my phone has called, oh janina, i want to dig into a little bit of, of what's happening right now in front of you. i'll move on to to the right in just a moment, but you mentioned jordan bardello the, the successor to maureen, depend on the national riley is you say 28 years old. he is. i understand also the son of immigrants it does feel like and in the past few years that what was the national funds now? the national riley, they've been trying to clean up their image. they've been trying to, to appeal to a broad audience and that they've also shifted on the policy some want. how much of a difference is that made? absolutely, it's really interesting to see maureen, the pen, whose father was mirrored in anti semitism during the pro palestinian raleigh's her coming out as a defender of the french jewish community, which of course is the largest jewish community in in europe. so, so this is

a real, it's not to say anti semitism doesn't exist. of course it does. but that she, you know, the far right traditionally does take a pro, israel stands right because it follows nothing yahoo, they see him as one of their own. and authoritarian leader who basically is uses physical force to crush people. so i think, you know, this whole concept of the old skinheads near not sees that we had in europe say in sweden, in germany and france, 2015 even 10 years ago is changing. jordan bardello is extremely popular with these because people don't read newspapers anymore or even watch. unfortunately, they're looking at less television. they're on take talk and they're on instagram and these jordan, but all that is a hero and not he's mastered it. he's come of age with it. so i think it's really important that we take this into account more so now than i think any other

election. and i, as in your opinion, i am deeply concerned about this and it might not be in this immediate outcome, but i think the long term projection of what will happen in europe. we are definitely leaning more towards the right moment. casey, let me ask you that about some of the political strategy here, because if we are seeing a shift in front me, you have to wonder, what is my call? i'm thinking right now with courting this problem entry. snap election? is he? is this about setting the scene for the 2027 presidential election, because obviously we know that george involved ella is, is the successor to the pen dependent, saying that if they do well enough, he would be prime minister. so then she would end up in and what they call in a cohabitation government was not going into sounds incredibly or could for my phone, but also potentially could show whether or not they can govern. i mean, i think it's kind of a, a dangerous idea that you should almost test the fall right in government to show

that they, um, they fail to govern. well, and i think again with my cronan, we need to, we need to think about his role in all of this in pushing a regressive policies around, for instance, the immigration build that was passed in january this year. and that was heavily criticized full pen during to the far right. it proposed a limit on access to social security benefits of people coming to the country. you can also think of the the bond on wearing the a, by a in schools and from again this was pushed by my cron. um, so i'm not relied again on these classic, so i'm gonna stay the traits that the far right use. and the idea of secularism within france, which is a used to restrict most than women's rights. and so, when we think about microns position in terms of the far right, and now this decision to hold the election, he risks the, the normalizing bar,

right? polls the takes and giving them another legitimate, legitimate form of legitimacy and through this selection. so i think it's a very dangerous position that he's been up to him with for a number of years occasion you, you've talked a little bit about this, this migration impact which was approved by the european parliament back in may. i'm wondering if this is a space that you now see given the new makeup of the european parliament, a space for, for right, leading parties to push even further, could we see even more movement that yeah, and i think that is to be honest, one of the most concerning things about this and this result. so of course it's important that we think about the number 4 right and the keys, but we're going to see. but actually i think it could lend towards this. the push and far right, main streaming. the involves send to right parties and send to last parties as well

to some extent. and so i think this is something that we really do need to pay attention to. because the bottom line of that is the, this impacts people who are on the shelf hand of this politics, whether it's people seeing persecution, most things l, g, b, t, q, i, a plus communities. so we need to ask what this means for those communities as well . if we see this, the shift within the parliament towards the main streaming. now i'm wondering janine, in terms of, of impact on, on board of european policy to just how much unity there is within the fall, right? because broadly they, they seem to campaign these individual far right. parties of campaigning heavily on, on national issues. so at the european level, you mentioned concerns about the global outlook here in terms of what might happen in ukraine. and also i'm, i'm wondering about, in terms of global development and development assistance to the global south.

where did you see those conversations going? now as we've seen more seats for the, for the far right and at the european level. and so it's interesting, i just came back from ukraine yesterday. um it one thing to keep in mind as well is the, you know, far, right. traditionally they focus on national issues completely. so are they going to be able to put together form policy or are they actually going to be able to, to work together because their whole agenda is really about working for their own country, their own identity. so it will be interesting to see if they actually can have a coordinated effort on policy or on other broader things such as trade. but going back to how they might envision their foreign policy. so we know on ukraine, it's very split by the far right. the a if d and germany of course has very pro russia as is the p i. s party in poland in italy, georgia maloney has been very pro ukrainian. but there are other parties in italy

which are not hungry, of course, led by or bon is extremely pro putin no ukraine right now. and having just gotten back is in a very vulnerable position. they were waiting for a long time for the bill to go to congress, us congress, to get them more munition and more aid. the for on the front lines. they're really struggling. people have gone through. this is the 3rd year of war. so people are really enduring a kind of deep psychological fatigue as well as you know, even and keep air right. error rates at night, which keep people awake and keeps them always anxious. so it's very important to see if the, if the really i felt extraordinary european consensus that was behind ukraine until now we'll hold. um, traditionally, you know, the far right. it is something that's beyond their, their borders. so therefore they don't have the same kind of impact there as for,

as for israel and the war and gossip the far right traditionally has backed nothing . yeah. so that again is troubling, as is what they might do. if trump does get in, who is said, basically he'll next to west bank and i fully support let give not netanyahu an even more green light to do whatever he wants i'm interested in and what appears to have been a shift within the fall rise itself in europe because with now talking about about trying to form some kind of coherent policy, be a domestic well your pin wide or, or foreign. but previously it seemed to be months of the conversation was actually driven by one thing to break away from europe. and that narrative has changed. so casey, let me bring you in on this. i'm wondering how you see this, this new found power by the fall right? being manifested in the block going forward. well, i think there's an interesting contradiction. a lot of the time in the far right

politics towards europe. so as you mentioned, does, i'll send a kind of your skeptic view of the european parliament and, but they also quite often rely on month to lower him a close using your cause a as an ideological results. so they are also kind of a and feeding into ideas of european identity. so i feel like that is where they could sort of expand that nationalist politics to this european level. i did some research on the far right discourse around and tacky succession, and they relied heavily on this idea of european white's identity pushing against the accession of turkey on that basis. so i think that these, these nationalist discourses and races discourses. i'm often then translated onto

this european level to so that's where they could, they could um, kind of find more common ground between the different nationalist policies. well, janine, let me ask you, then what do you think this all means for the debate that's ongoing about engagement? so mainly i'm thinking about ukraine because coming working so closely, a new crane working inside ukraine. my friends, my colleagues, want to join europe. they feel they deserve to join europe. they believe that they have been fighting a war for europe. they don't see fighting. i mean, of course, they're fighting for their country, but they also see themselves as holding the last line of democracy against bruton. who does want to was antagonized by the expansion of nato, but also as made it very clear of what he wants. so ukraine has been waiting patiently to join you. and if the far right does get in,

it's pretty doubtful they will or that it would take an extended period of time. and that would be deeply disappointing, especially for the ukrainians that really have been losing their lives suffering terribly. and in many ways, would they see us fighting, fighting the war to keep democracy in europe. i want to ask you both about another huge issue that's been on the table for the, for some time. and that's climate policy. for so many is, europe has been a real leader in this area that we have seen in the past few months. certainly very visible funding protests, for instance, on the streets of a many capital cities. and that has been an argument that that has also contributions to the results that we've seen in this selection casing. do you think that we might see a shift at all and in economic policy, they felt like there was a consensus on this for some time, but does that still exist? i mean, i think it's,

it's emblematic of some of the processes that we were talking about earlier in this conversation where in the mainstream parties are shifting their policies from um, from more progressive positions towards more progressive ones. and, and i think with the increased power of the far right within the european parliament and the prospect's full that topic of, of climate policy and not looking promising. again, janine, do you see this says as pushback from marginalized groups or groups that feel that they haven't been listened to enough when it comes to, to broad a european policy here for instance, the phone is that we've been hearing from and, and could we then see what we're now seeing at the or p and that will be replicated at a national level. yeah, i do. i do think this is very much a vote that signifies disenfranchised people dissatisfied people and in frown

sooner. you saw it over the past few years from protests, whether it was the yellow vest or the farmers even even eat in some way. you can even link to pro palestinian, you know, people are dissatisfied. and that brings in a lot of issues. climate change being one of them use feeling that they are on the outskirts of society, a desire to get rid of globalization. and it's very interesting the language that my phone and his team are using now about the call, the dissolution of the national assembly and the call for the snap collections. you know, they're saying they're framing it in a way which is very clever. they're saying we're are public, we believe in democracy. we believe in the people we love the french people. therefore, we're turning this vote back to you. and, you know, we know this is a massive gamble from that problem. but in many ways it's, it's more than a gamble, it could be russian roulette because he's basically trusting,

i'm nuff that the voters will, will vote against the far right. but it could very easily go the other way. i wonder how much that changes the level of influence. very powerful. it isn't powerful countries like france and germany have your pin level now. so if the parliamentarians, janina, are aware that the both my crown and schultz struggling at home, does this change that the level of influence they have on big policy decisions at the pilot of the european parliamentary level. going ahead. does this create the space for more instance from, from countries like ethically and maloney, for instance? i think it depends what happens. you know, i think at the moment, so the next 3 weeks are basically in a state of limbo and perhaps shock. i think more than anything there was a, even though as a, again, as i said, this didn't happen in a vacuum. it's been building up for some time. it's been building up for,

for decades. but at the same time, one never really wants to believe it's the same as i woke up in 2016 and donald trump was suddenly elect. no one believed it would happen, breaks it. i went to bed, i woke up and there was brooks it. so i think it, it had a similar psychological effect whether or not that can be what will happen in, in brussels. i think we have to wait for the next 3 weeks to see how the, how the snack collections go. well, there are the elections and fronts, but there's also potentially another election that would be critical for the european union, and that would be for us to live on the lions job. so casey, let me ask you, does she keep her job come july. um, i mean it's hard to, to make predictions on that, but i think she also in the build to this, i'm emphasized but she was open to and collaborating with

file right groups such as george and maloney and and so i take the time. yeah. so i think it will be very interesting to see how this progresses, but i think that there is a good chance that she could and that is also very boring for the direction of travel within you politics. when you talk about that direction of travel cases, how realistic do you see being that the rise of a, a fall right? super group, so to speak, within european politics. again, i think i or we can sort of 10 pads. those kinds of ideas, by, of course, being worried about the idea of a fall, right? groups taking power. but i'm really what we've seen is the send to send to right politics, normalizing for right, politics. and i think that that's why we need to focus our attention,

the likelihood of a fall, right? stupid group is, is very limited. but the, the impacts of normalized far right. politics is very real. so that there is at the shop headings. so i think that's why we need to focus our attention and, and, and try to come back and the creeping normalization of these ideas and policies when we talk about the normalization of these ideas to me. and i'm going to ask you just very briefly, to end here to put this in context for us in the global context. when we see these trends in europe, when you talk about the possibility of donald trump being re elected for a 2nd time. where do you see that the global trend in terms of a populace politics going right now, and i think there's 2 things. i think 1st there's the media which has had a massive effect on it. the spread of just information, the rise of right wing and shock jocks and, and really in a way, a kind of indoctrination of, of younger people into

a way of thinking which is either black or white. there's very little in some ways in ability to interpret gray area. so i think that's really dangerous. i also think there's this, there's, there is dissatisfaction with a lead leaders with what is seen as globalization throughout the world and, and basically wanting to see another path. unfortunately, the far right has managed to establish themselves in, in some way as friendly or fresher faces. jordan by data, or even marine le pen herself, was really separated herself from her father's policies. and so this way, this re branding of the new right and attracting younger voters is, is i think something we have to take streamline seriously and that somebody will continue watching very close. van de thank you both of our guests, jeanine de giovanni and casey brown. and thank you to for watching. remember, you can save this program again any time by visiting our website that's out of

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the student protests for palestine being met with military style track down wide is by to insist on 0 consequences for israel in its war on gaza. the quizzical look of us politics, the bottom line. the money inside indo here told stories on al jazeera, a moss, and it's not meant jihad say they all ready to reach a cx, 5 deal in gaza upset and their response to the us spot proposal to could tar in egypt. sion mediators, the exact contents of the response was not disclosed, but the 2 groups. one assurances is really forces willfully withdrawals and this trip sources have told al jazeera, the most response includes amendments in wrong con has moved from the jo dania and capitol, amman.