the travelers most are crossing africa looking for a possible way to europe. some are coming back the other way. and their stories are chilling. reminder of the dangers of my ahead, the safe haven at the crossroads of hope and despair. the loss shelter. witness on a jersey a. it is rather and hezbollah on the verge of full blown for the 2 sides of setting up the rest of your control sort of attacks. israel says plans for an offensive level and have been approved with a will look like this time around. and those diplomacy stand the chance. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm the bulk of tensions between the, it's really military and lebanese on group has the law as an old time high. they've been engaged in low level hostilities for more than 8 months. the assassination of one of his blogs, most senior commanders last week, however, so an unprecedented response. us president joe biden sent a special envoy to the region, hoping to diffuse tensions and prevent of why the conflict, but hasn't worked. and with no sign these way, the middle tree is close to ending its war on gauze or in the south. is it now on the brink of opening up a 2nd front in the north? we'll try to answer those questions shortly with a panel of guess professor support by michael apple for mold in 8 months. his bullet. and these really all me have exchange fire across the lab and on board. in some cases, israel has launched actual fire. the run back on group says it's conducted. mold in 2000 military operations in support of homeless since october,

tens of thousands of people on both sides of the board and had been forced to leave a $150.00, increasing aggression. he's bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation his bull uh, wrapped up a tax last week. oscar and his riley strike killed one of it. so you need to come onto his the firing its largest fully yet of most solve an attack drones into northern israel, hoping to avoid a wide conflict. us president joe biden dispatched special envoy, a most hochstein to meet leaders and living on. and israel, the situation is serious. we have seen a escalation over the last few weeks. and what president biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater war. but as hochstein wrapped up meetings in bainbridge, his blood released drone footage, it says,

shows sensitive military sites deep within these rail. analysts say the groups message is clear about us capabilities continue to expand, become more sophisticated, and are more able to penetrate. what are they is rarely a defense of systems. he's rails response slates on wednesday was an announcement that see me a general's had approved operational plans for a ground defensive and they've been on the. 6 inflammatory rhetoric is also fueling tensions. servers were allow me to talk. oh, well, victory. we need to enter the north and fight says the law. i'm not really. the rivals have gone beyond this point before fighting a months long boy in 2006. and now both sides appear to be willing to violate the unwritten rules of engagement that govern. they low level

hostilities, but that will come at a cost. the regions attend to box one wrong move by either side, could set it all off. mike, level l g 0 for the inside story. it okay, let's bring in uh guess from bay ruth where joined by nicholas know the editor in chief of middle east y adult. com, which provides english translations of significant new stories and opinion pieces for media in 22 out of countries, the power of desperate in term of the u. k. as robert guys to pin folder. electra and peace and security at the university, and a senior fellow at the hospital center of israel studies, and also invite routes as well. i'm not a highly deputy research director at the malcom h kind of the middle east center. will say also, it's the 2017 book nationalism, trends, nationalism and political islam. as well as institutional identity. everybody will

welcome to all 3 of you. thanks for joining us on the inside story. robert. i wonder if i can stop so with you and is writing naval base, and i am don't factory are among the many highly sensitive sites in northern israel picked up by this, a pound has blah spine drone. the findings of back to drone made very much public by has blog message. do you think the group was trying to send to you? well, this is a live and it's habits both sides have kept the big a weapons in the shirts for the time being noisy, israel no head split is looking for an escalation here that would lead to an o at war between both parties. yes, that's been thinking exchanges, but remember that has been a has anywhere around a $150000.00 rockets. and that's over 10 times more than the number of rockets that when the goal of the strips of this could really degenerate into regional configuration, as is rarely itself. and you've had

a defense minister y'all's going to say to any compensation, i mean, what to lebanon back to the stone age, basically emphasizing that the country would not be able to recover. it will be a state to blow at to not just a has the also to let us let, let them in. but this is both sides, basically saber rattling, in order to stop video the from escalating noise. the israel know, has the one system to come up more book where this at triggered point in the main way. what it takes is one miscalculation all it takes is one attack that causes more tests and intended or misses the target. and then we may, may very well may find ourselves at that point where tensions escalate so much that will become school. most unavoidable. so that's uh, cyber wrestling, says robots. but with the extremely high stakes, a one foot wrong could mean that the entire region potentially tumbles into war. israel has announced that's

a potential attack or liberal and has been quote approved. does that mean a full scale conflict is not imminent? and that's what we've been been hearing lots of the statements in the past months as well. funding to annihilate the liberties infrastructure or what's left of it, given the countries as of of crisis as 2019 we seen the defense minister saying for instance, you know, look at the images of, of gaza strip area of disregard the strip and compare them to beta, now this is what made it would look like. so these 5, some be ongoing for quite a while now and but what would the us m boy has been saying recently? is that the margin of error of things going wrong? has a white and then it's, it's more likely now that something wrong might happen outside of the calculations of these 2 actors which would lead to why the confrontation. and this is why we

were saying, you know, has the law send a message that there was message to as well, given the political changes and, and the lack of lack of ability to speculate what these riley next move is given. now that it's a more white wing government than that then yahoo has bottling, different forces and different visions within his own government, including his own personal calculations. so, nicholas, how much do we actually know about has polos military capabilities? is it something of a mystery? i think what we know publicly is that there are they have really shifted the military balance of power over the last 24 years since they ejected these rallies after 22 years of occupation in south level. they have steadily built up capabilities such that we had a really incredible event that you spoke about at the top of the show, which is the drone footage, apparently on the interdicted. going over some of the most sensitive military sites,

including the air defense sites of israel. really incredible. but let's remember, this is a group that in 1997 was already hacking into his really drones and watching the footage and then were able to kill a dozen or more of the best as rarely commandos in a raid and 97. they were hacking into drones before the rocky groups were doing so . they were flying groans over undetected, these really demona nuclear facilities many years ago in 2006 more israel and 11 or it gives everyone has val, uh, let's say for it to a stand scale with devastation that especially on the 11 east side. but they already have been prevented and is really encouraging such that these really all finally was unable to move more than a few kilometers across the board. that was 2006. that was 18 years ago. this group as far as significantly and as above and in syria in the conflict it's for now in

other areas is training. associates is training. it are key groups, etc. so the capabilities, it's fairly certain are tremendous. i would just say one thing else to your guess point who spoke about the, the kind of the capabilities are still in the shed. i think that that's probably likely true for hezbollah. however, i think these really, really have try and they review some of their intelligence capabilities in their fairly significant attacks and assassinations of important hezbollah. thank you. i would wager, given the past history of this conflict that has bottle of probably has a lot more in the shit to bring out if this does actually expand as compared to is risk. and i think actually these really problem right now is that even their own capabilities, even air besides they are clearly lacking and that banks, the question whether or not they're allies like the us will be absolutely vital if

this war expands in the coming period. o. nicholas following off of what we've just to um, of course, what is it then potentially being for israel to be fighting on to from so it has blog, little a mazda stomach to hodge in the south as well. it's not just 2 fronts, the whole resistance axis and unity of funds is there is room is going to be actually face even more than what it currently is, is facing, which is several funds. they have a front, essentially involved with who sees in the red seats and attempts we think by the who these to actually directly attack is risk. that's true. also, if you're talking groups are rocky militias, that may be less true, but still somewhat true within syria. and of course, you know, and also engaged in a reprisal that was, you know, one of the largest such attacks in modern history. and it was only repelled successfully, some of us believe because of the tremendous involvement of the united states and allied arab nations with us as well as the clear, projecting that the,

your audience did that. and it's such an attack was coming. so is real faces, problems in the zone with a very, you know, let's say a, a less capable of fighting force in her mouth, which has no strategic debt. it's facing a much harder enemy with has butler with strategic debt and with the resistance access. but evidently, is involved him is find currently and we one things and i'd be interested to hear what the other guess. think on this one seems, isn't those actors would probably become even more involved if this were really an expanse that's at least my us auction or putting that to robert, what these act as being more heavily involved? well, it's impossible to tell really if you're able to and we'd like to create this noise binary between kind of more and the current status quoted by suspect we might see just continues spirals of escalation, those actors all wanting to get involved. yes, if we see in full at war the,

i remember on october the 7th, that was a genuine fee and his role that you know, this was basically at the start of his rouse. what were the rab open more with around? at least i didn't from spa, you didn't see. and for example, hezbollah actually declared or at war and get him to with as well. so there is still a chance to, we'll listen back at the end of the day is rails and keys. and i guess the last thing they can use to basically try and prevented escalation is the fact that they do have the kinetic power at to at damage 11 and significantly and indeed to set it back to the state agent defense. and that's the us gallon all use of the strategy. they would be not just a target has, but to target the lebanese state. that's for several reasons. one because israel doesn't want a long war, it doesn't have the troops, it doesn't have the results has for a long way would also home israel's economy. the 2nd is the, has blood very, very solid to get to is much easier to talk with

a lot of these statements. but is isabelle field's if it targets select a new state and does enough damage that will cause an international intervention that will get the get both sides to arrive. at least 5 bath is rosa warrens and that's kind of the last time call. they have to try and prevent an escalation and not legitimize, and yet i'm not justifying it. but that is israel strategy for this here and it has . but the question is whether that's going to be tested. i talked about international intervention with the hopes of a safe spot and to, of course us and boy, a most hosting, notably. and it's really american businessman who visited the region, looking for a diplomatic way of defusing coming tensions. they're also habits, of course, as you will know, by france as well as the law has repeatedly said, it will not negotiate the truth before a c spa is implemented in gaza. uh well, how about the, i mean, how much of a time sport do you think about puts the united states and because israel or service, this is exactly the way his beloved design doesn't to mention that say,

as i said, all of us that didn't strong those own words that say sort of diety and support. war engagement from has been less side. so, you know, for them as, as row of facts around far and as the are more operations the, because means they need to escalate and you know, for them this will help us. this will help the mouse and the whole effort to end war, according to how mazda is terms of support come on systems and the goal, she ations to and the effort for him us. this has to be an end of any, any exchange of its prisoners with a kind of thing and palestinians. it is right in jails house to see the conflict and let you know that this is not where it's starting and the goal is to strep, but i think it has the lowest pressure on the southern borders is basically designed to help how mos negotiate and better and uh for the,

for the complex to keep him off from, you know, being and they like the door, you know, help it survive. and then in the next phase, given that we're reaching this very last stripped of is riley operations and the gaza strip. so yes, it sincere for his beloved and for the conflict in the gaza strip, according to his rouse plans, which is, you know, inviting that far but anyway, the war and definitely in the next week, some months is, is not conducive for the organization to understand. if as well, finishes as operations in the gaza strip, it was done, it's a turn around and a back cause below. and so this is really the white timing for an escalation, according to his the laws, you know, version or, or how they see the conflict moving forward. and you've mentioned the voc and your question to nick in the sense that the is that you know, as well sizing onto funds will not be um, you know, helpful. it will not be a, uh,

uh, vantage point uh for, for his route. its exhausted on me after many months of fighting. and i disagree with your guests in terms of, you know, as well loan thing goes for destroying uh, what's left of the east, a given the that he states has been, you know, a, losing much of his resources in the past. yes. but you know, i think has below it enter a very long conflict with these riley's and it has the case with these and it has the support that it has the backing and it has the syrian syria all along the levels board is to continue. and you know, all of that logistical uh for some backend. okay, well, how about how about at this juncture in the conversation, let's set provide some context show way. i wonder if you can give us a brief understanding of has blog because they are not just a military group. they are social and political as well to. yeah, i mean, the organization is a huge. i mean, since, you know, since it's

a stall to the 1980s has grown tremendously. now it's, it has parliamentary representation since the 19 ninety's it's thought to, uh, joining the lebanese government since my 2005. and it's, it's present and unions it's, it's the largest liberties, political bounty. but at the same time, it's a minutes into organization. you know, having obsessed to re routed and fighting against his royal corporation, but then given the contention within leveling off to this area and withdrawal in 2005, you know, the point the use of the hard to apologize ation inside the country between those who want to visit the lebanese state, which is capable of taking decisions like peace and war. and those to support has milan, believes organizations, you know, on the imperialism resistance should right, have a right to the liberty state. so it's a, it's a, it's an organization which is a very paula rising. i'm a subject and lebanese politics, but it's,

as you said, has many facets. it's pretty cool. and so i saw submitted central regional links, right? i did, i realize that's a very difficult question. to ask a on so briefly, but robot turning to remind us briefly of the 1982 when as well as well invaded southern 11 on obviously very important context. understanding what's going on. well, it didn't just invite so 11. it basically stretched away open an occupation. what happened in june? 1961992. sorry. israel basically intervened in the long going long, the ongoing lebanese civil war at the a sensible reason for that was the, is rebels facing attacks from palestinian militant groups on its board who were using southern lebanon as launching pad for operations. and actual fact, what israel wanted to do was to cause regime change within lebanon to replace the government with a christian with the christian government. first, the leg goldman that would then arrive at peace treaty with israel. and israel

would basically go in and throw its weight around to leave very quickly, as is the case with many military operations. and his rel, i'm the military occupation. sorry. that didn't work as role funded. so bogged down still elaborate in trying disability allies the same time feeling that there was always would to week. and if it's rel withdrew, they basically wouldn't, wouldn't be able to last on their own. i'm this actually led to the creation of has been yes, israel got rid of those public spending groups, but in the words of the defense minister you've talked a lot, been israel's occupation let the she i genie after the ball. so it creates a significant resentment. i'm resistance, these ready occupation invest basically gave hezbollah, the oxygen of legit and legitimacy that needed to survive and survive. it didn't survive and thrive. in fact, as was mentioned previously as ro, left level and finally, 18 years later in 2000 and february, 2000 book has blown,

he went from strength to strength. so that was that military occupation that made has the, the, the political and military advocate that isn't all right. uh, nick nicholas, tell us about how sudden us, while i, why is he as powerfully is as he is the leader of his belongs to as well. i mean, on these questions i'd like to this differ often times them a 100 another lebanese i can offer my outside or perspective from the american point of view in america, policy makers, i think they view this is someone who has been the head of this party for a close to 30 plus years 32 years, he has evidently desperately managed the growth and expansion of this lebanese party with an important linkage, some se proxy relationship to the islamic republic of, you know, in an incredibly difficult political environment,

political and economic environment. here, 11 on as well as having syria and the asset dynasty on one side and is real down on the southern border has bullet has i think by all accounts thrived and grown into what it is today, which is probably one of the most powerful non states armed actors that we've seen in decades, perhaps more. that is an incredible feat when you consider the array of threats for me, that is a signal failure of great power politics of diplomacy, of regional de escalation, that we are at some point. our models coming back to you, i nicholas that mention of course uh the influence of iran. how much is it wrong, directly involved? do you think and calling the shots when it comes to this potential conflict of the different different play. a strategic player, i mean,

is the leading funder of most of these organizations? and it's um, you know, it's, it's basically a network of which that leaves and the role of the supreme leader as you know, the, the absolute tend hope of the network. but at the same time, it doesn't mean that it's a, it's kind of a hierarchical relationship and which, you know, orders aren't passed down the line. those do you know those, and it's the go share a to that's a different opinions wise enough to allow himself given his rule that his relationship with the supreme lead to any of the on has a say and, and, and i'm not from, i think one of the one of the books which was quite interesting, and in that regard was dr. fama, donnie m a, a n i r d. c leader who died in, in syria. and he wrote in his memoirs that the most that i loved play the leading role and, and basically convincing the ring and leadership of joining towards stereo. so it's,

i think, i think there's a, there's a 2 way relationship. and at the same time, you know, just to add a piece of room for here, which is not hezbollah buzz low being upset within the, on, as an office and but on. and one of the new president, the new government, they always make the effort to sell the close to whatever it comes to office does. does learn from these riley is quite events when it comes to managing that relationship with the united states as well. well, what was the company valuable context? let's circle this conversation back to what we're talking about is the threat of potential full blown goal between hezbollah and israel, a robot. when does the victory potentially look like the israel? would it be prepared for instance, to implemented the doctrine to destroy civilian infrastructure and 11 on a pressure has block? do they push as far as by routes as they did in 1992?

what a lot case scenarios for as well a well, that's a he is a pretty is exactly what he's on the table. he, as i said before, he's rouse, claim the economy, and we'll go asked and not just has the actually, the lebanese state and the lebanese stays infrastructure. and now i'm dealing ages and discuss the reasons for that. but israel definitely has the capabilities do so yes. has but is one of the most powerful known state actors in history and never that as it still a symmetrical conflict is red, is much more powerful than has been learning and significant, which will pass on the let lebanese state in terms of its disruptive potential. in terms of the weapons that has at its disposal and so well, i think we're more likely to see is less of a ground invasion simply because israel doesn't have the numbers anymore is was all me has been getting smaller and smaller for the last 15 years. i have particularly with the own getting dollars and well, particularly we 10 more in the west bank is rose on the stretch then as it is,

which is why i think was more likely to see as well. we're line that the he adult trends. yeah. basically, unleashing bad strides and leasing office, henry power, trying to destroy and damage the lebanese state. okay, quick, you know, so the israel, as the investor community will force as off of the robot and very, very quickly for flemming to, uh, nicholas, cuz you are shaking your head on this uh, i know that they have been rules to the stand off on the border in the pos, i'm one of those middle trees though she was very briefly look like and how do we get back to something that resembles a, a kind of cool, a stand off. what do you want solutions, that's the toughest one. the rules of the game have look like. what is basically happen till now, which is both sides carefully calibrating an escalation over time. it's just that sense the 2006. ringback that's always been contained within the rules of the game . the essential problem now is that it's harder and harder to see a way out has butler has made it clear that they will not cease fire until there's

a durable cease fire. and because that seems very unlikely, the problem there is additional because even if there is a durable cease fire didn't cause that, which is at all order. things have gone so far we see is released in this conflict . it becomes found to see how these really can accept the pre october 7, a status quote and the pre october 7 rules of the game. that is the central problem . the 3rd problem is that to your guess point, i think we need to be very clear that the idea of is really military is victory using its dot ga, or gaza doctrine, or whatever is dangerous fantasy. it's not only the legal under international humanitarian law, but it's also dangerous fallacy. smashing up live in on it is not going to display hezbollah quite into the contrary. it's probably going to strengthen the group as a lot of their national means or opponents actually slave. this country and right

of the structures and what the best thing nicholas of many, thanks for that. unfortunately, we have reached the end of the program, some incredibly challenging ground that we've covered some very complicated questions. i appreciate all of your efforts to and on seeing them and helping us understand exactly what the future may hold. robert geist pin, followed on on the cards on a nicholas. no, many thanks to all 3 of you for joining us. an inside story and thanks you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, i would 0 adult, calm them for further discussion. go to our facebook page. as facebook dot com forward slash ha ins i story. and you can always say, join the conversation on x or have the lives have page a inside story. for me in a fuck i'm the whole team here is point for now. the unique perspective. one picture is not going to tell the entire 8 months of the

genocide, however, it is bringing attention to does that this is not a rough, it looks like we're off. it looks like it's held on heard voices, we've been seeing the exacerbation of the militarization of the police over the past 10 years. connect with our community and tap into conversations you will find elsewhere, both in a region government and other companies are stealing indigenous land. the stream on our 0. so the, [000:00:00;00]

the challenges here with the you want, your knowledge is there with me is the whole rahman in though how reminder of all top news stories must protest against the government's plan tax reforms all taking place across kenya. this is the scene in the capital library. the police have been following 2 guns and using war to come in to disperse crowds. valley near parliament, the controversial but site. the bolted down sign then spell is heading back to m p . 's for more debate. it introduces new taxes and levies that would increase the