the the . ringback the ones that stay can it runs presidential elections and radians are choosing a success as to the late abraham, the se, but with the supremely the wielding enormous palace. how much difference with a new president may an house, this phone viewed both regionally and below valley. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's aid on following the southern death of president abraham, the se, in a helicopter crash last month. voters in iran, now twos in his successor. the guardian council initially approved 6 male candidates from a pool of 80. they include one reformist and 5 conservatives, but some dropped out the nation facing political unrest, economic challenges, and tension with the west over the nuclear program. the stakes, all high and potential conflict between israel and 11 and further increases its significance. so what policy might the country take off to the vote? what might be the outcome for a wrong and for the world, we'll discuss all of this shortly. but 1st, this report by x of zion, of which inflation at record levels and widespread shortages of essential goods. after years of sanctions imposed by the us any use the rings are choosing

the new president a month after the death to be breaking receipt. many said they have little hope of meaningful change. i am not going to vote because presidents can do anything. they don't have the authority to do anything. so people liked is very expensive. and estimated 61000000 people are eligible to vote. and the supreme council, this calling for high participation, but with discontent, growing, the decline turned out in previous selection suggests pure iranians are doing so many play of corruption alike, a real choice of candidates and the burden of sanctions. one of the ways of china is who we just sanctioned. they get to you. i think you're going any one of these 2 . i'm really fine corruption around so you can do with these. we are obviously having the body is going to national pray that the evaluation of you run your own car and see the government needs rationing gabby of the resources for inc boards

and solve these goods. they seem to subsidize rate and some not. and that's why the opportunities for drain, c, k 3 and gain day trade and using watching easy trade and small. i mean, a new president will also have to deal with high temp, the regional tensions over a throws war and gaza. the were in yemen and strained relations with the west over its nuclear program. 6 candidates were about to been approved by the supreme guardian council. one of the 3 frontrunners, one is that are before missed and the other 2 conservatives, they are se jelly a former chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the supreme national security council. and mohammed bog cali boss. the speaker of parliament says 2020 who previously served this the ron's mayor and police chief must suit possess key on his back by several reformers groups as well as former presidents mohammed cut on me and how sign or honey with a before miss president b might be seeing more efforts to engage with best and countries,

particularly the european ones. but i'm not certain, you know, this can be successful because the failure of the next day and then the president is only the 2nd most powerful person in iran, behind the supreme leader. but the post carry significant authority within the executive power. many iranians will be hoping the president will exercise to bring change, so their lives and their country axles. i much alj a 0 for insights story. when i was bringing a panel of experts to explain the significance of these elections, we have joining us from to hold on how so that's my dion. he's a senior fellow at the center for middle east strategic studies in washington, dc. i live via is project director on the ron at the international crisis group and a former seen the, a political affairs office at the united nations. and joining us from bay roots

assigned me neither is the director of the, the vine to institute for strategic affairs. welcome to inside story of one. let me start with us on into her on then. so how representative 1st of all, all these elections, when the list of candidates have been whittled down from 80 to just 6 joe, there have been all sorts of arguments on that. so you see the bar is so low. anyone can basically run for president, but bender back in process brings the number down that has been the case for over 4 decades. and the guardian cons so usually is test basically with the, with the padding process that brings up the main candidates or content. there's for the president of the main numbers. i mean, the, the real, you know, name, but has some, let me jump in, even the president, senior figure is what bob from running this time. why?

well, each one we, we basically don't know exactly. you see the guardian con, so as not trying to stand in how we does the candidates and we don't exactly know why and how it is reading them. but the, according to reports, it's basically about 12 members. they bring up the person, his resume and, and basically what, what, what he does basically, and in his current position. and then they hold a vote according to reports, a larger johnny, for instance, got 5 votes, oppose it, basically for the food being him and 7 opposing. and so he was not qualified. and i think the others also are the same way. so we know it's

not clear cause as to why each and every a candidate is qualified or disqualified. we know that uh the, the body basically holds the boat and then each condo, that is either qualified or disqualified, they make that decision. all right, sammy, neither will this d. c impact, voter turnout will to you or expectations according to what we're seeing and what to the following. the main challenge is to have a high turn off, or if it turn out that is acceptable or that is in line with international and standard. but according of what we are following from the news that that to that is expected. that doesn't seem to need those standards maybe because a lot shed off for a in population has lost to

a trust in the system that is in place. what will that mean, sammy, i mean, if this turns out to be another low turn out off the low turn out in march parliamentary elections of around 41 percent. and let's not forget rec, hold low to announce in the history of presidential elections in iran in the last presidential election in 2021, which is only 48.8 percent because for the last, for 2 years. and despite the fact that today aware of that action that we're taking this and sometime this election a brute and in you the, the, and you and he and all but, but this a faded, showed off a changing anything, get that 3rd things to the agenda, the policy um the fact is that at the end of the day the, the one that makes the decision is the person that is at the head of the deputy

domain, which is the. so a supreme guide that is taking finally, the whole decision that he lying on the pick on guard that are a that mean instrument to controlling the system. talking about the head of the parent made um, let's take the question now. i live in washington dc. how do we see a clear front run though? when you look at the polls? well, they're not always all reliable all day, some of place possess can sometimes in 1st or 2nd place, but they're all kind of the top 3 kinds of. it's all kind of close between 20 to 25 percent they are absolutely there. so within the margin of error from one another, there was an expectation that some of the conservative candidates were dropped out so that their vote doesn't break down. and if indeed,

mister j e or mr. already bought, foot withdrawn in favor of one another. they're on their arms of getting through the 1st round of elections, getting over 50 percent of the vote would increase a significant bit. but these 2 individuals are all conservative rivals and it does not appear likely that they would compromise, they didn't 11 years ago in another present for elections in 2013. that led to the opposite victory of pragmatist presidents and ronnie. so we'll have to see to conservative candidates dropped out today. mister is i'll kindly impact yesterday based on these others, but uh they were pulling pretty low. so i don't expect that to make a major difference. i'm use of positioning on in case that neither of the 2 conservative candidates drop out will likely go to a 2nd round run off on july 5th with one of these 2 conservative candidates. and

that can create a really polarized situation in which the participation could change and impact increase. that's an interesting prediction, sammy, now that if this does go to a 2nd round, what will that mean in terms of the chances of the loan reform? a versus the conservative. what does it mean for the chances? what does it mean for the region? do you think is the region watches this? i mean, you want to these for the region, that means or not because at the end of the day, what is at stake as the line, the new president, the was the bedding in mind that when it comes to foreign policy and when it comes to the uranian behavior and the reason that this is something that is in the hands of the supreme god, a god as mentioned. but definitely the impact of the election just in the case where any floor or the one that can do that,

that 30 percent change. when i make it to the test, when at ease in mind, you defend situation at that is so seen in country slide live on, on and, and live in your all, especially the, the, the, uh, the, this would have an impact on the lot as was of the population that are not in she does it and on the time it does get going to a 2nd round. do you agree with those on a psych going to a 2nd wrong might help a reform missed candidates that it will create a dynamic and this dynamic can turn or can impact the hit in dynamic and be so countries when uh, for instance, a demonstration took place in your on lately that happened, this had

a huge impact on the use in this county. we seen a campaign off for support and some of the eastern universities a supporting the case of for this student there were a beating to do that. so in case that, that is a sign that change is possible, i think that this was a trigger about a dynamic in those society, or i will pick up mold as lot small to talk about in terms of the region as well as global implications. but be for, we do that one a go back to how send into her on and talk a little bit about economy watts at stake here. how different all the economic policies of the candidates when it comes to issues like inflation, unemployment and so on. the things that really bite to people's pocketbooks. well, that's the main challenge that to whomever is elected. moving forward is

still going to face their debates show that the main concern and the main basically issue that was to pay the difference in our program. so brought up by to buy them by the candidates. we're focused on you can economy, which is basically reflective of what the society is, is concerned with the candidates now that it's, it's the economy that attract people and voters to them. and they want for their agenda. economic agenda. we are a, with this inc. s, but it's between 2 camps basically when it comes to economic with the fund, you know, tackling, they can amik challenges. one that focuses on capacity building within which belongs mainly to the conservative candidates, a continuation of the raise,

the administration policies. and another one which was brought up by put one, i'm at the end to mainly position young, who says basically we cannot do much without a pallet of attracting foreign policy, dealing with global powers, specifically on but nuclear issue to these the impact of sanctions. these to, you know, arguments were made and i think the position key on and are for ms. champ, lincoln, the economics to foreign policy has seen a, basically, a previous, the have been very much resonating within the society. we don't, we should them forget that presidential honey a link that to and he got the boats and i think position john did the same though. the goals don't show that which will present it or as an answer within the society

. but i think that linkage is, is critical in the minds of many rainbows. and if, as i already mentioned, that it actually has on has to be set the poles the residence. but could it be argued that the reason we sometimes see position and in 1st or 2nd place in the polls is precisely because the public hoping that his so we say soft, the position on relations with the west might translate into an easing of sanctions and back to rock economic times for radians. of course, but 11 years ago, honey made the case. he got uh, you know, a huge support by the voter turnout. and he was elected in the 1st round of the elections. but the poles don't show that a back a friend in this elections. maybe if we move right, a 2nd drawn with possession kion against one of the conservative contenders

polarization might lead to more connection in the minds of uranium between the economics and for him policy, right? and that's basically what's better for mr. banking on i think. all right, so we've got to keep them ally on whether this goes and how quickly goes to another round alley. whenever we talk about the economy, of course we go to mention the big question, can it be turned around without dealing with the issue of sanctions? which means dealing with the issue of the ron nuclear file and how that is perceived by the west. if you look at sir, interesting, because in 2021, when the present race, it came to office. i think the regimes of general perception was that with a real belief and focus on the economy of resistance, which primarily relies on the wrongs internal capabilities. and also pivots into

the east and doing more trade with russia and china and yvonne's, the immediate neighbors that wouldn't be able to turn the economy around. and especially because all the instruments of power were also controlled by a conservative. so expectation was that with lower fiction, there will be more efficiency and the system, all of those plans turn out to be an absolute illusion in the running and economy is now in more trouble than it has ever been before and the running people as a result of others suffering, and there's a lot of associates and amik discontents in the country. in this election of 3 of the 2 out of the 3 main candidates mr. business got on this stuff out about how admitted that sanctions really, really is an essential part of any funds for turning the economy around. mr. jenny to the also right, the candidate is still in denial and still believes in continuation of the same approach that in the race the administration did not bear fruit. the problem is

mister position, although he's surrounded by the front of the friend will be ryan diplomat. has not put forth any practical plans on how he wants to tackle the diplomatic challenge of resulting the new through a sound of what the west of mister volleyball has put forth. a very narrow plan which is based on a series of step by step measure is that the best could provide it wrong with some degree of for time economics for free. it's certainly not a long term solution to it runs economic challenges. of course mr. volleyball is bogged down with all sorts of allegations of corruption, which would, and cast a shadow on his presidency, is the option i. li, is a big issue, isn't that the, can any of the candidates make a difference on that? malays, you can say the other great malays, that's eating at the rate the, an economy briefly, a cynical, uh, because uh that kind of, uh, uh, you know,

really real fights with corruption requires the kind of structural changes that are very unlikely in the running system, especially if you have a split between the governments and on elected institutions, if the government is in the hands of the reformers and conservatives control on it like the restrictions, it reduces the chance of success. all right, before i go to sammy, i want to ask this question since where we kind of fit into the issue of relations with the west. when you look at what the candidates have been saying on that issue . well delete lee is being talking about how iran doesn't need really relations with the us in the west. because this can, on the other hand, well, he's spoken against the idea or wrong being perpetually in the state of hostile relations with the us. how much variance do, can these candidates actually bring to the table when it comes to actually policy and re relationships with the us and the west?

in terms of farm policy, we know that the record strategies are set on a conceptual basis in the supreme national security council. but the, the administration's plan is a key role in form policy. and that is the process done tend a number of heads. ministers will be members after being elected and appointed a members of the supreme national security concepts so they can block card, they can test their, their agenda when it comes to foreign policy. the priorities are usually set by the administration. they basically are the ones who focus on either. so you go on, you focused on negotiations with the ftp 5 plus one, right? you see focused on the move to the east and the region. so the administration has a lot to do with foreign policy though. there are god layers they, they should observe that to the conceptual mechana isn't within the supreme

national security because of that they can effect eventually. so there is, it's a question of degree perhaps. so i mean that the, another way of looking at this, sammy might be, does the relationship may be, have, is not true or even more to do with who wins that of a big race going on in the world? the race for the white house? definitely, i think that this is the, the elephant in the room and this is the next election that will impact to this one or the result of the union election with the drum the be the winner or at by then be the one that if the by then wouldn't be the one that is a great chance that things will go to the negotiation a but, and in my view that are a high chances that the, that are in agreement on dun and g, c, b, o, a or the nuclear fine with the, or each actually, and it was station are still taking place between the 2 box. but what it's,

and this is very likely today, according to pause, is strong when adapt presidency, knowing that trump was due, i mean, from its commitment from the just scipio a and cancel the agreement. and this way, in my view, a squander any chances of nor monetization between the u. s. and you're all very briefly alley. how realistic is it the thing that they could be returned to and the wrong you could deal, even if by then wins the rice to the white house again? i don't think it's realistic any more. the, the, you know the facts on the ground. they've changed. so much that the 2015 deal is no longer response to the requirements of either side. you know, as long as the car program is now to advance, to be roll back and put it in a box,

which for time constraints and transparency measures that would be satisfying to the west or israel. and it's a 20 year shot record of the west fading to provide it wrong with effective and sustainable sanctions are here. so there is a need for a new kind of deal with iran, which doesn't, no longer includes the p 5 plus one because even that a power balance no longer exists because of decides as times that right. and so that the highest on the land to rise, right? sorry, back to us. you have on find getting a couple more questions full time. runs out. back to sammy, you mentioned the conflicts. what's at stake here for some of the regional hot spots, whether we're talking about lebanon garza yemen. i'll we, i mean, if you look at some of the opening and statements, the opening parliamentary session in april, had muhammed, a volleyball praise iran support for the access of resistance. whereas position and foreign policy advise the jobs that a former found that as the warning and these men was against intervention by the

revolution regards in the rainy and foreign policy. those seem to be some difference between the positions of these candidates when it comes to, to foreign policy, particularly regional issues, right? a dozen or 2, there is a difference. if a concern about that, when that means that the current policy with the state is in place and you are on with be a backing guy organization like i'm us, i'm terrible at the debt free month of citizenship with uh, on a uh, go, bracketing, almost or a government may be maybe with the exception of syria today, and this despite the recent opening cost of get on to these countries because this kind of policy is perceived very negatively by those government. they are seeing it and attempt to from your online establish the decision that they

use it to consider as a very strategic the set for the yeah. all right, a quick question for how some into for on what difference do the candidates bring to the relationship between the president and the supreme leader and how much power does the present really have? but it's perceived that uh, the conservative candidates are closer and that was due to the supreme leader. although the supreme leader has worked with the people from across the spectrum over the decades that difference that but he has a point to view the live site even jelly leave to several positions. whereas he made comments about counting on progress coming from the us, which was seen as the mining mas who does it scans position. right? well, that's the one argument, but also he appointed the id from hon year for missed as the head of the best supreme national security concert before beth. i need not be johnny. so he worked with people from across the spectrum on different. i've been instructions, though,

as i said, he's believes to be closer and has one's view to the conservative camp. but the president brings change to the, to the country and that he wrong as the main branch of government and avon, he manages the, the can nomics the social life and a foreign policy. as i said, he's attractive. so the change can happen, whether it's a conservative or a reformist. all right, well i guess time is going to tell we're going to have to sign call guess and leave it. that has an idea, i revise. and so i mean that if i am fine, q 214, you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. how does 0 don't com for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com. forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x l handle. there is a j inside story from may. so i may say that on the whole team here for now is combine the

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insightful documentary. i'll just say it was teens across the world when you closer to the house of the story, the to hello on the bottom, and doha with the top stories on the alex's era. lotions and yvonne accosting the ballots in an early presidential election, but choosing a successive to it. but i am lazy who was killed in a helicopter crash last month. there are 3 leading contenders wonderful most and 2 conservatives. many iranians are divided on whether version will address pricing issues, including the economy and mandatory head covering. so women zayna holder has moved from the capital ted on the house now, especially for those in power.