[000:00:00;00] news . ringback the ukraine war and the risk of donald trump to come and us president again, our major issues, the nato's 75th anniversary summit in washington. the military alliance space is more challenges than ever before. what are they and what's next for nato? this is inside store

the hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much enjoying an anniversary is usually costs for celebration, but with an a tool facing greater challenges than ever before. the summit in washington that mark 75 years since its founding will be a more serious affair setup at the beginning of the cold war. its focus was to counter the nuclear arm power of the soviet union for us as far as going, but natal remains expanding from a dozen members to 32. its focus has expanded to well beyond the north atlantic fighting wars in afghanistan, the balkans and libya, russia remains its main adversary and both sides are coming closer to outright conflict in the war and ukraine. then there are the divisions within the organization. and what might happen if donald trump becomes president, again of nato's largest member. so what challenges does the alliance face, and what does the future mean for global peace or the risk of more war? we'll be taking a look at where nato is now and what might come next with our guest shortly. but 1st this report from michael, so i'm sure he's

a month soon for the military lines. overshadowed by security threats and divisions from within its ranks. the north atlantic treaty organization on nato is mocking. it's somebody to stand mostly at an event dominated by russia's ukraine. us preston, joe biden promised full support for keith when he welcomes member states to washington dc. on tuesday, rochelle has out a wave of drone and massage slide some ukrainian cities recently, including from one of the children's hospital in the captain. nearly 2 dozen allied partners have signed the bottom dollar security gave me some more cried you will follow. today. my house in your store donation a very defensive equipment for ukraine. united states, germany and nothing was remaining, then it will provide ukraine for the equipment. for 5 additional c, d, 's,

your defense system. the summit comes full months ahead of the us presidential election. vote southcom could impact the future of the 32 member military airlines like allies up preparing for the possible return of may to skeptic donors from to the town to the white house and its consequences during his previous them from trenton to withdrawal from the organization. and is against providing more age to ukraine in. the us is a nature founding member and its biggest financial don't press them. loading me is the lensky who's also attending the summit remains optimistic about the us policy to us ukraine. i hold that. united states will never seriously think to go out from the town. i think so, but it's this is, it's not my decision. i'm just sharing with you my,

my thoughts. uh and i hope that if the people of america will vote for uh, president trump, i hold that he has a policy with ukraine will not change a deborah internal divisions to the home, gave him prime ministers meetings with the russian and chinese preston's have left detention and took in hungry crust frustration by delaying the approval for new members, finland and sweden. but outgoing chief jed stilton bug says nathan members are united and i increasing the contributions. so for the 3 of us are investing more a 2 percent of use the, the defense. this is twice as many asked us the 4 years ago. and that nature was founded in 1949 to come to trips by the former soviet union. the states constant and the tack on one member as an attack on, on. so fall, it's managed to would die,

the confrontation with russia. but many believe the risk of that happening has never been great to consume sherry. i'll just see the inside the. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guess from london, we're joined by shack joshi, the defense editor of the economist. he's written extensively about ukraine and nato. in paris, janine to giovanni is a foreign policy analyst who's reported from several ne, towards, as a correspondent and in cork. island. geoffrey roberts has a emeritus professor of history, a university college court who specializes in the history of soviet and russian, military and foreign power. welcome to you on, thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. shortly. let me start with you today at this nato summit. the main focus is going to be on russia's war with ukraine, right, them. and how much is that going to dominate these meetings? and these discussions, well, we also is actually not as much as you might think because the principle of

question, which is how quickly to allow ukraine to join nato, has really been taken. and it's a decision that has been settled in a raw, the cautious direction. the allies will say that ukraine's progress in tomato is what they will say in reversible. but that would really disguises really deep divisions among the allies with america, but also germany and other countries. hesitant to allow an accelerated pulse to memberships. 2 as opposed to some like poland and in the east. and so we have no real progress on the issue. and no real debate will be necessary to have, i think, in some respects we also shouldn't forget all the ukraine is very high up the agenda. the allies also have a lot to discuss in their own defense, their own regional defense plans. the institutions that make those plans real. so ukraine is a big topic, but it's not the only topic. get this on it this week. janine, what do you say from your perspective?

uh, what are the biggest priorities for day to right now, and what are they going to be discussing? most of this summer? all right, so i am the executive director of the reckoning project. we're war crimes unit inside you crane. so we're more than 30 people working on the ground tracking kremlin war crimes. so obviously for us and for the ukrainians, we speak to it is a huge priority that the us stays in nato and continues funding and giving the support that they have up until now. there's more than a $130000.00 reportage incidents of kremlin criminality. and that's those are that are recorded. we don't know what will happen once certain areas that are occupied or opened up. so this is really the main focus. and earlier this year, at the munich security form, it was a rather grim message that came to those of us that were there. the 1st was, that is trump coming. it looks like he is. the 2nd was that and of all need was

killed whilst we were there at the opening ceremonies. so it is, can put in do whatever he wants with impunity. will he ever be held to accountability? and the 3rd is, and the most important, i think, is ukraine losing on the front line. and what are they going to do? will there be any going to the table with the be negotiations? how this war look in the long run? will it turn into a forever or like afghanistan? so these are some things i'm thinking about now. just like i saw you reacting to what you needed was saying there, i wanted to give you a chance to jump in. i usually use, i've done find a number of the really vital issues. and i think the specter of donald trump is perhaps one of the most significant problems. it's trump, obviously, in the 2018 summit when he was president, the very famous summit and brussels thing, close to pulling out. so the lines. and what you'll see now is it,

your p and allies are trying to judge how far they need to hedge against that possibility. again, including by expanding their own defense spending and building up alignments in your up, the could substitute for us protection. but i think it's important to say that your penalized a not yet faithfully stick about trump a nature they're not giving up on the american membership of nato. they still owe the trump. should he become president later this year could be persuaded to stay in the lions could be persuaded that actually european allies have done a huge amount on defense spending. for instance, to give you one example. this year, 23 out of 32 allies will meet the alliance is tom, you just spending 2 percent on defense 10 years ago that was about 3 or 4 and that he might therefore accept your p. now allows of finally stepping up. but i think that's what they'll have that right on for the next several months, and they will be attempting to influence and shape the trump team as it begins to take shape. jeffrey, from your vantage point, has nato strategy when it comes to russia and ukraine been successful or

unsuccessful and, and what does giving more money to ukraine? what does providing them with more weaponry in the long run me? i was the 1st thing i think is that some like to it's been very lucky about the timing of it. so somebody did find a bus route because the of the somebody is taking place at a time when. yeah, ukraine is losing the war. we've rush or losing it very badly, but it hasn't lost of all of your firestone. so, so and naples of night. so to keep up to percent that saw this, there's some kind of you crying and victory is possible. the 2nd thing does enables the nato and the west to, to, to evaluate, to avoid the whole question of how this war is going to end in an end to follow up . because jason's a some kind of of a piece that's not as long as the whole thing is going on, the cost, which is already spoken about, isn't it? yeah, nato westlakes are putting on a political show for football. and i noticed both days,

johnson and the american presidential election, now i have decided i, i trust, i don't think the trump poses an existential for it tonight to get shot. very lucky they will shake off that the loss in various ways. but i don't think you possibly can exist naturally, right. i think trunk to very, very well posit extension for to your crime because in the form of a, a significant concealment of us, simple for you crime. and you probably just need to talk about position now a trump presidency could be you know that the, the final blow to you tried as far as what, what frustrates consumed jeanine. i saw you reaction what jeffrey was say, i'm going to give you a chance to jump into. but let me also ask you a little bit more about what you're hearing from colleagues on the ground and civilians on the ground in ukraine. i'm and you spend a lot of time there when you're not there, you're in touch with people there when it comes to the specter of a potential 2nd. trump presidency. how concerned are they about that? about what it means when it comes to nato coordinate to members rather continuing

to support ukraine going forward? yes, i mean, i, my team are entirely ukrainian and they are very often and when i'm not, i'm on the phone with them or in june every day. so i'm very much in touch. they're terrified, they're terrified of a trump presidency. it's interesting with jeffrey says this is but i do feel that trump is a major threat and not just to nature, not just to crank, but to human rights. all right, and that's basically what, what i look at, i see everything to the lens of human rights and i think that should trump get in. he's expressed very clearly as he identifies ukrainians. people that hate us. i think that support with wayne and we know more than anything, what matters when battles are for as political will. so right now, in a sense there's another elephant in the room in washington dc that no one is talking about. well, while we're all looking at ukraine, there is garza and you can be sure that all of them are thinking about that.

yesterday, one turkish delegates said that is this a hierarchy of humanity that we are looking so intently at ukraine to help you crane to save you crane. and yet we are leaving garza to die. and just one more example, the hospital a new crane. terrific, shooting the children's hospital. it's cruel, it's a war crime. it's absolutely devastating. but there's been more than $13000.00 children killed in gossip since october 7th, and there is not the same reaction. kira stormer does not make strong statements. it's not from page news of all the british papers as it was the children's hospital . so i think that this is something that will very much be on people's minds is not address because of course, we know biden is in a terrible position in america with the students who are protesting on

campuses who are deeply upset about his policy isn't blinking this policy in gaza. so i think this is something that is also going to be looked at in a very different way. but with these next few days, and actually it didn't come back to the wall was not sorry, the trust is not a site that hasn't been a civilian cartridges of costs that happen. but, and your credit will be of a wide majority. hundreds and thousands of people have been sold. it's not, it's not, not, not civilians. if the warrant garza was being conducted in the same way that the warranty were trying to speak to dr, that'd be fine. the fuel costs just for us and then for the fuel a change of children's catches. and then i think it's interesting. sidelines that was made to the west coast uh about that is and it's not me. i doubt that they'll say anything, anything until i should try and i'm going to get to you with a couple of questions. just a 2nd, but printing and flags flying. there's this enormous sense that ukraine is holding back, is holding the front line of democracy against pushing. right. and what was the

nature found for essentially it was against the threat of communism. so pushing in many ways still symbolizes that. and the fight, the ukrainian fighters on the front line, who jeffrey is right there are taking terrible losses from the front line soldiers . so they symbolize something important to us. i at some point i'd like to hear what just what it says, but i want to talk about the war in kosovo in 1999, which was the 1st time nature went to war since 1949, the bulk and wars. and i was there, and i'd like to see everyone's thoughts on the lessons we learned from the cost of a war, because that was an example of political will. now was the time in 19 nato countries came together to defeat the bosnian serbs. i don't know if we have that same political will anymore. i think there's so many fishers, especially with a nature, was hungry and potentially other countries. the rise of far right in,

in europe. if it will, is the can main gene not. all right, so shank, thanks for your patience. in fact, janine just mentioned what i wanted to ask you about, cuz i want to drill a little deeper into all that is going on when it comes to this summit. the summit of course, has meant as a projection of strength and unity, but we know that there are internal ripped, among member states and nato hungry and turkey. they were hold up members that delayed sweden and finland to bid to join nato, and also home during prime minister victor or bon. he has ties with moscow. he had that visit to moscow just in the past week. that's created tension amongst member states. so can may to obscure or can they hide this unity amongst the members going forward? how is that going to impact things for the? so i think the answer i would gave is just say i have always been rift. inside may . so always, always transatlantic rifts going back to the eisenhower administration that had been ripped between greece and tacky, but had been risks between east and west in the last 2 years,

including over ukraine, really quite profound ones between, from some to charles the goal and his successes who took them on national his line, who indeed withdrew from nice those integrated minute treat them on the only coming back into it, about 10 or 15 years ago. so these risk have always been that i am not convinced that these rifts almost serious today than they were. and i think i could point to many more examples where the allies of eventually found the consensus. yes, turkey held up the membership of sweden and finland. it has now given way. those countries are in tech. you'll play evidence of russian atrocities, including rape for trevor and matter of ukrainian civilians including prisoners of war as well. and i think that kind of go on onset or onset research, and you mentioned china in your answer just now i want to ask you more specifically about that because nato is also going to be seeking to reassure it's asia pacific partners, the state in how china will increasingly shape the security and defense environment as a euro, atlantic area. and i think that that makes obvious sense given the,

the rapidly rising power of the p l a and the chinese. all right, jeffrey, you would have heard, especially i think he took issue with your comments about russia acting with restraint. so do you have a response? i'll repeat or repeat my point. okay. it both sides into your crime. well, committed atrocities, but without doubt, uh, i don't see any evidence that the russian side is committing any more atrocities done that down to your crime. so i don't see any of the evidence. the either side is actually conducting a yeah, organized deliberate match. the trust is against the civilian population, and the proof of that is a relatively not load number of sufficiently, so a civilian casualties unique, right? if, if, what, if what's being said, what's going on you pry was actually going on, because everywhere we would see said, we didn't catch him tuesday, the, in the, not just, not the 10s of thousands. okay. so, so i started by my, my point of that,

but looking them, we've been tracking them for a year. i do want to get back to sean, because i want to ask you more specifically right now about what it means for nato going for we've all spoken during this discussion about the concerns about the prospect of another trump presidency. what does it mean going forward for nato? if that is the case? well, it means that nato relies on america. that's the fact. yes, we have seen european step up. yes, they spend more on defense. we seen some remarkable growth of capability to give you just, you know, what one example of that we saw drake sullivan, the american national security by so say just now that nato allies, well that 650 s 35 aircraft load along with a 1000 debt defense systems in the next 5 years. but there's a big boss, which is it with alpha america provide being headquarters enablers, refuse, and all kinds of other enabling systems. europeans can also at this stage,

defend themselves. and if they also do that, they will have to dramatically increase defense spending. so a great deal hinges on the decisions taken by the next president. if that is donald trump as to the cohesion and capacity of nato to savannah, even in your janine, let me also ask you about the fact that the so far nato has managed to avoid direct confrontation with russia. but, but many fear about how much longer that can continue. um, you know, the more that nato countries in supporting weapons to ukraine, does it get more likely that we see a scenario in which there would be a direct confrontation between they to and russia? is that within the realm of possibility going forward? and yes it is, because i think put in we're, we're, we're not certain what is going on in his mind. he so isolated. i think it absolutely is a possibility. but i think more to the point, and this is where i come back to jeffrey's point, we do need to look at how this war is going to end. is it going to be or that. busy

is on for, for decades, where it will become a guerrilla war where the front lines will be pushed back a small amount and, and hundreds of thousands of people are going to die. there does, there has to be some kind of negotiated settlement, but at this point i can say from the ukrainian side they are not ready to go to the table and nor. busy will they, they want to continue fighting. they want complete territorial integrity and that means crimea, so it's just a matter of how much puts and feels trapped, you know, like a ride in a cage. how and how he will laugh, shout. but i do think it's possible, i mean, i think kidding the hospital in keep the other day it was symbolic for him as well . and he had been quiet for a while and then this. so, um, yeah, i do think we have to look at, you know, consideration of what, what he could possibly do. jeffrey just a, a final thought i want to ask you about,

i'm from your vantage point. what are the biggest challenges facing nato going for what? but right, yeah, yeah, i mean, night night, so was, was, was 5 to 75 years ago on devices of a missed. and that was the merits of a friend of somebody military, great aggression against the west. find the to actually a defense against that, that frank suppose refresh, why do i totally missed? because i spent decades decades working in rush at all costs. so i know that it was the subject military for in the sense that the to us do want it to interrupt you again. but we, we have run out of time, so we're gonna have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guest shop, joshi, janitta, giovanni, and geoffrey roberts. and thank you to for watching. you see the program again, any time by visiting our website. i'll just you or dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also draw in the conversation on x i handle. is that page and side story from him. how much in room the whole thing here? bye for now

the there's a deliberate mission of post. i mean humanity and make a difference the