the confidence, brightest legal students, putting minds against the best means in africa would really be interesting to see how we miss uh, gather together for tournament. unlike any other top me expressing maybe the apps we can cut on the human and people's lives is now invest in weakness for couldn't move on out his era the ukraine war and the risk of donald trump to come and us president again, our major issues, the nato 75th anniversary summit in washington. the military alliance space is more challenges than ever before. what are they and what's next for nato? this is inside store the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm a how much enjoy them? an anniversary is usually cause for celebration, but with an a total facing greater challenges than ever before. the summit in washington that mark 75 years since its founding will be a more serious affair setup at the beginning of the cold war. its focus was to counter the nuclear arm power of the soviet union. the ussr is gone, but natal remains expanding from a dozen members to 32. its focus has expanded to well beyond the north atlantic fighting wars in afghanistan, the balkans and libya, russia remains its main adversary on both sides are coming closer to outright conflict in the war and ukraine. then there are the divisions within the organization and what might happen if donald trump becomes president, again of nato's largest member. so what challenges does the alliance face, and what does the future mean for global peace or the risk of war? war will be taking a look at where nato is now and what might come next with our guest shortly. but 1st this report from michael, so i'm sure he's a months on for the military airlines,

overshadowed by security threats and divisions from within its ranks. the north atlantic treaty organization on nato is mocking it's 70 to stand, mostly at an event dominated by russia's will ukraine, us preston, joe biden promised full support for keith when he welcomes member states to washington dc. on tuesday, rochelle has out a wave of drone and miss on slide some ukrainian cities recently, including from one of the children's hospital in the captain, nearly 2 dozen allied partners i've signed the bylaw security gave me secret, more casual follow. today, my house in the store a donation, a very defensive equipment for ukraine. united states, germany in another, was remaining then we will provide you great for the equipment for 5 additional stages. your defenses. the summit comes full months ahead of the us presidential

election. vote southcom could impact the future of the 32 member military airlines like allies are preparing for the possible return of nato skeptic. donor trump, to the town to the white house and its consequences. during his previous them from threatened to withdrawal from the organization and is against providing more age to ukraine guy. the us is a natal founding member and its biggest financial donor preston, beloved to me as the lensky who's also attending the summit remains optimistic about the us policy to us ukraine. i hold that. united states will never seriously think to go out from the town. i think so, but it's or it's, it's not my decision, i'm just sharing with you my, my thoughts. uh and i hope that if the people of america will vote

for president trump, i hold that he's a policy with ukraine will not change a deborah internal divisions to the home, gave employment just as meetings with the russian and chinese preston's have left detention and took in hungary crust frustration by delaying the approval for new members, finland and sweden. but outgoing chief jed stilton bug says nathan members are united and i increasing the contributions. so for the 3, all of us are investing more. a 2 percent of these the, the defense, this is twice as many asked us the 4 years ago. and that sort of nature was founded in 1949 to come to trips by the former soviet union. the states can step and attack on one member as an attack on, on so fall, it's managed, who would die, the confrontation with russia. but many believe the risk of that happening has

never been great to consume sherry. i'll just see the inside story. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guess from london, we're joined by shack joshi, the defense editor at the economist. he's written extensively about ukraine and nato in paris. geneva, giovanni is a foreign policy analyst who's reported from several ne, towards, as a correspondent and in cork. island. geoffrey roberts is a emeritus professor of history. a university college court who specializes in the history of soviet and russian, military and foreign power war and welcome to you on thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. shortly. let me start with you today at this nato summit. the main focus is going to be on russia's war with ukraine, right? them. and how much is that going to dominate these meetings and these discussions? well, the officer, he's actually not as much as you might think. because the principal question, which is how quickly to allow ukraine to join nato,

has really been taken. and it's a decision that has been settled in a raw, the cautious direction. the allies will say that ukraine's progress into nato is what they will say in reversible. but that would really disguises really deep divisions among the allies with america, but also germany and other countries. hesitant to allow an accelerated pulse to membership, i suppose, to some like poland and in the east. and so we have no real progress on the issue. and no real debate will be necessary to have, i think, in some respects, we also shouldn't forget all the ukraine is very high up the agenda. the allies also have a lot to discuss in their own defense, their own regional defense plans of the institution. does that make those plans real? so ukraine is a big topic, but it's not the only topic of this on it this week. do you mean what do you say from your perspective? uh, what are the biggest priorities for day to right now,

and what are they going to be discussing? most of the summer. all right, so i am the executive director of the reckoning project. we're war crimes unit inside ukraine. so we're more than 30 people working on the ground, tracking criminal and war crimes. so obviously for us and for the ukrainians, we speak to it is a huge priority that the us stays in nato and continues funding and giving the support that they have up until now. there's more than a $130000.00 reportage incidents of kremlin criminality. and that's those are that are recorded. we don't know what will happen once certain areas that are occupied are opened up. so this is really the main focus. and earlier this year, at the munich security form, it was a rather grim message that came to those of us that were there. the 1st was, that is trump coming. it looks like he is. the 2nd was that and of all neat, was killed waltz. we were there at the opening ceremonies, so it is,

can put in do whatever he wants with impunity. will he ever be held to accountability? and the 3rd is, and the most important, i think, is ukraine losing on the front line. and what are they going to do? will there be any going to the table with the be negotiations? how this war look in the long run? will it turn into a forever more like afghanistan? so these are some things i'm thinking about now. just like i saw you reacting to what you needed was saying there, i wanted to give you a chance to jump in. i usually use, i've done find a number of the really vital issues. and i think the specter of donald trump is perhaps one of the most significant problems. it's trump, obviously in the 2018 summit when he was president, the very famous summit and brussels thing close to pulling out of the lions. and what you'll see now is that your p and allies are trying to judge how far they need to hedge against that possibility. again,

including by expanding their own defense spending and building up alignments in your up, the could substitute for us protection. but i think it's important to say that your penalized not yet faithfully stick about trump a nature they're not giving up on american membership of nato. they still owe the trump. should he become president late to this year? could be persuaded to stay in the lions could be persuaded that actually european allies have done a huge amount on defense spending. for instance, to give you one example. this year, 23 out of 32 allies will meet the alliance is tom, you just spending 2 percent on defense 10 years ago that was about 3 or 4 and that he might therefore accept european allies and finally stepping up. but i think that's what they'll have that right on for the next several months, and they will be attempting to influence and shape the trump team as it begins to take shape. jeffrey, from your vantage point, has nato a strategy when it comes to russia and ukraine been successful or unsuccessful and,

and what does giving more money to ukraine? what does providing them with more weaponry in the long run me i was that the 1st thing i think is that some like to has been very lucky about the timing of it. so somebody did find a bus route because the of the somebody is taking place at a time when. yeah, ukraine is losing the war. we've rush or losing it very badly, but it hasn't last of all of your firestone. so, so and naples of night. so to keep up for science that saw this, there's some kind of you crying and victory is possible. the 2nd thing does enables the nato and the west to, to, to evaluate, to avoid the whole question of how this was going to end in an end to, for what, because jason's a some kind of of a piece that's not as long as the whole thing is going on the cost, which is already spoken about, is that yeah, nato westlakes are putting on a political show for the football. and i noticed both days, johnson and the american presidential election. now i have decided i,

i trust. i don't think the trump poses an existential for it tonight to get shot. very lucky they will shake off that the lots in various ways, but i don't think you possibly can exist central, right. i think trunk to very, very well posit extension for to your crime because in the fall and with a significant concealment of your support for your credit. and you probably just need to talk about position. now a trump presidency could be, you know, that the, the final blow to you tried as far as what, what frustrates consumed. janine i saw your reaction with jeffrey was say, i'm going to give you a chance to jump into. but let me also ask you a little bit more about what you're hearing from colleagues on the ground and civilians on the ground in ukraine. i'm and you spend a lot of time there when you're not there, you're in touch with people there. when it comes to the specter of a potential 2nd, trump presidency. how concerned are they about that, about what it means when it comes to nato coordinate to members rather continuing to support ukraine going forward?

yes, i mean i, my team are entirely ukrainian and they are very often and when i'm not, i'm on the phone with them or in june every day. so i'm very much in touch. they're terrified they're terrified of a trump presidency. it's interesting with, with jeffrey says this is, but i do feel that trump is a major threat and not just to nature, not just to crank, but to human rights. all right. and that's basically what, what i look at. i see everything to the lens of human rights and i think that should trump get in. he's expressed very clearly as he identifies ukrainians. people that hate us. i think that support with wayne and we know more than anything . what matters when battles are for as political will. so right now, in a sense, there's another elephant in the room in washington dc that no one is talking about . well, while we're all looking at ukraine, there is garza and you can be sure that all of them are thinking about that. yesterday, one turkish delegates said that is this

a hierarchy of humanity that we are looking so intently at ukraine to help you crane to save you crane. and yet we are leaving garza to die. and just one more example, the hospital in ukraine. terrific, shooting the children's hospital. it's cruel, it's a war crime. it's absolutely devastating. but there's been more than $13000.00 children killed in gossip since october 7th, and there is not the same reaction. kira stormer does not make strong statements. it's not front page news of all the british papers as it was the children's hospital. so i think that this is something that will very much be on people's minds is not address because of course, we know biden is in a terrible position in america with the students who are protesting on campuses for deeply upset about his policy isn't blinking this policy in gaza,

so i think this is something that is also going to be looked at in a very different way. but with these next few days in washington as it should be. and jeffrey, it looks to me like you wanted to add to what janine was saying when it comes to gaza. so i'm going to give you the opportunity right now as well. yeah. well obviously i agree. i agree. what jeanine uh set, particularly as it relates to emphasis on on schuman ross. yeah. it's nice that somebody stock countries look at this recent a me saw strongly called the on the, on the job was possible to the camp was very, very tragic event. but actually, so we didn't catch it using an ukraine to been relatively low, relatively low compared to the scope of the concept you and comp is about $10000.00, including a few hundreds of children. that's it. and the last one is nearly 3 years that we compare that to, to go. so i think what 15000 think close for

a full 1000 children have to have been killed as a sort of son so far. so the stores we keep constantly here within the major about the rush to trust is no send a rush would be dropbox. ukrainian no trust is as low as i can say. that's not true . yeah. actually, engine in terms of ukraine. well, both sides have actually some considerable restraint in come back to the wall. we should not say that happening atrocities. it's not a site that have been a civilian cartridges of costs that happen. but and you credible the all the white majority, hundreds and thousands of people. i've been subjects, notes, not, not, not civilians. if the war in garza was being conducted in the same way that the warrant ukraine to speak to dr. that'd be fine. if you were kind of just as an incident, if you're a change of children's couches and then i think it's just saying sidelines that was made to the west coast. sorry about that, is that it's not me how dr. they'll say anything, anything until i should try to i'm gonna get you with a couple of questions just a 2nd. but jeanine i want to ask you to follow up on what jeffrey was saying that

he was talking about atrocities, or lack thereof. he was talking about statistics and i thought you're reacting to that because you do investigate war crimes. i want to ask you your reaction to what he was saying. a look i came of age. sadly during 3 genocides. trevor, anita rolanda, and these you do slaughter. so numbers and jeffrey's absolutely right, the civilian casualties are nowhere near the 20 to one ratio that these rallies are killing palestinians in terms of how mos combatants, the sheer number of casualties in gaza has shocked me. and i've reported more than 19 more. several of them nature wars. it shocked me beyond belief, but again, i want to get back to political will. now there has been a huge political will to support ukraine. here in europe. i think all of us know families that have taken in ukrainian refugees. if you drive through small town america, you see ukrainian flags flying. there's this enormous sense that ukraine is holding

back, is holding the front line of democracy against pushing. right. and what was the nature found for essentially it was against the threat of communism. so pushing in many ways still symbolizes that. and the fight, the ukrainian fighters on the front line, who jeffrey is right there are taking terrible losses from the front line soldiers . so they symbolize something important to us. i at some point i'd like to hear what just what it says, but i want to talk about the war in kosovo in 1999, which was the 1st time nature went to war since 1949 the boy. busy can wars and i was there, and i'd like to see everyone's thoughts on the lessons we learned from the cost of a war. because that was an example of political will. now was the time in 19 nato countries came together to defeat the bosnian serbs. i don't know if we have that same political will anymore. i think there's so many fishers, especially with

a nature, was hungry and potentially other countries the rise of far right in, in europe, if it will, if it can maintain that. all right, sure, shank, thanks for your patience i. in fact, janine just mentioned what i wanted to ask you about, cuz i want to drill a little deeper into all that is going on when it comes to this summit. the summit of course, has meant as a projection of strength and unity, but we know that there are internal ripped, among member states and nato hungry and turkey. they were hold up members, the delayed sweden and finland bid to join nato, and also hong during prime minister victor or bon. he has ties with moscow. he had that visit to moscow just in the past week. that's created tension amongst member states. so can may to obscure or can they hide this unity amongst the members going forward? how is that going to impact things for the? so i think the answer i would gave is just say i have always been rift. inside may . so always, always transatlantic rifts going back to the eisenhower administration that had

been rich between greece and turkey, but had been risks between east and west in the last 2 years, including over ukraine, really quite profound ones between, from some to charles the goal and his successes who took them on national his line, who indeed withdrew from nice those integrated minute treat them on the coming back into it, about 10 or 15 years ago. so these risk have always been that i am not convinced that these rifts almost serious today than they were. and i think i could point to many more examples with the allies of eventually found the consensus. yes, turkey held up the membership of sweden and finland. it is now given way. those countries are in tacky, also held back on improving the regional defense plans to the alliance. those plans, those historic plans are now approved. so i am not terribly worried about these risks, because ultimately that's what happens in an alliance of 32 people. the fact is that the risk between countries like russia and china, may not be feasible because they don't play out and open societies,

but they are in fact in some cases, very serious and actually just as divisive. the last thing i just like to say briefly is, i really do think it requires a strenuous objection to the point made area. the restaurant is showing restraints in ukraine. it's true, but most casualties and military casualties. but i'm afraid it is simply incorrect, that reports that atrocities of falsified or mischaracterized we saw in the around key of for example, in boucher play, evidence of russian atrocities including rape for children, matter of ukrainian civilians including prisoners of war as well. and i think that kind of go on onset or onset research, and you mentioned china in your answer just now i want to ask you more specifically about that because nato is also going to be seeking to reassure it's asia pacific partners of the alliance has continued support against an increasingly aggressive china. how concerned are ne, told members right now about china is growing assertiveness in the asia pacific as

well they can send. but i think there's a misunderstanding that nato, as an alliance who's somehow interested in getting involved in asia and deterring china and getting stuck in it isn't what he's worried about is the way that china affect the security of your up. whether that he's through traditional minute trainings, such as the potential to provide almost russia or the provision of drones and them, at least on nato, something for free or whether that is via more in direct means such as cyber activity, cyber operations, and also to give another example, trying his influence in space operation as we see the evidence of chinese companies providing satellite imagery to rushes, rushes on, forces in ukraine. so nato isn't getting involved in asia to getting involved in a war of a taiwan, for instance. nato is interested in how china will increasingly shape the security and defense environment as a euro, atlantic area. and i think that that makes obvious sense given the, the rapidly rising power of the p l. a. in the chinese. all right, jeffrey,

you would have heard shank, he took issue with your comments about russia acting with restraint. so do you have a response? i'll repeat or repeat my point. okay. it both sides into your crime. well, committed atrocities, but without doubt, uh, i don't see any evidence that the russian side is committing any more atrocities done that down to your crime. so i don't see any of the evidence. the either side is actually conducting a yeah, organized deliberate match. the trust is against the civilian population, and the proof of that is a relatively not load number of sufficiently, so a civilian casualties you've got. if, if, what, if what's been said, what's going on you price was actually going on because the everywhere we would see said, we didn't catch it to the, in the, not just, not the 10s of thousands. okay, so, so i started by my book and i might pointed that, but look,

any civilian desktop, any, any your atrocity is it is, is truly terrible. which is why it's so important to bring this will to an end as soon as possible in order to, to go any further shipping, your desk or, or, or trust is obviously gonna be different. different, i'm sorry, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but we are starting to run out as most of it is actually for tribute to anything tools, a path to pace you price. that's the problem that dr. palmer house. i i just, i mean i don't mean to interrupt you, but i do see to janine wants to jump in, please go ahead. i'm thank you jeffrey. thank you for your points and i have to contradict you. well, with all due respect to respect your, your knowledge of the soviet union, but you're wrong about the kremlin is atrocities and ukraine. i spend my days going through testimonies of victims. right now my team is working on something which is so sinister, which is the kremlin abduction of ukrainian children. $19000.00 of them. we're tracking them. we've been tracking them for a year. i do want to get back to sean,

because i want to ask you more specifically right now about what it means for nato going for we've all spoken during this discussion about the concerns about the prospect of another trump presidency. what does it mean going forward for nato? if that is the case? well, it means that nato relies on america. that's the fact. yes, we have seen european step up. yes, they spend more on defense. we seen some remarkable growth of capability to give you just, you know, what one example of that we saw drake sullivan. the american national security buys a say just now that nato allies will, at 650 s 35 aircraft load along with a 1000 defense systems in the next 5 years. but there's a big boss, which is it with allison america, provide thing, headquarters enablers, refuse, and all kinds of other enabling systems. europeans can also at this stage, defend themselves. and if they also do that,

they will have to dramatically increase defense spending. so a great deal hinges on the decisions taken by the next president, if that is donald trump, as to the cohesion and capacity of nato to survive even in your janine, let me also ask you about the fact that the so far nato has managed to avoid direct confrontation with russia, but, but many fear about how much longer that can continue. um, you know, the more that nato countries in support and weapons to ukraine, does it get more likely that we see a scenario in which there would be a direct confrontation between they to and russia? is that within the realm of possibility going forward? and yes it is because i think put in we're, we're, we're not certain what is going on in his mind. he so isolated, i think it absolutely is a possibility. but i think more to the point and this is where i come back to jeffrey's point. we do need to look at how this war is going to end. is it going to be or that. busy is on for, for decades, where it will become a guerrilla war,

where the front lines will be pushed back. a small amount and hundreds of thousands of people are going to die. there does, there has to be some kind of negotiated settlement, but at this point i can say from the ukrainian side they're not ready to go to the table and nor. busy will they, they want to continue fighting. they want complete territorial integrity and that means crimea, so it's just a matter of how much putting feels trapped, you know, like a ride in a cage. how and how he will laugh, shout. but i do think it's possible. i mean, i think kidding the hospital in keep the other day it was symbolic for him as well . and he had been quiet for a while and then this. so, um, yeah, i do think we have to look at, you know, consideration of what, what he could possibly do. jeffrey just a, a final thought i want to ask you about, i'm from your vantage point. what are the biggest challenges facing nato going for of what i'm right. yeah, yeah, i mean, night night, so it was was,

was 5 to 75 years ago on devices of a missed. and that was the merits of a friend of somebody military, great aggression against the west. find the to actually, um, uh, to defend against that, that freight, i suppose. it for. why do i totally missed? because i've spent decades decades working in russia all kinds. so i know that it was the subject military for, in the sense that the to us do want it to go to up to 5. certainly there was a political and audiological john from some appointments, but it wasn't administered for 75. he is like, the nighttime is being militarized. yeah. on, on devices of another, missed a mess. the 3rd page in a russia is poised to strike at west end. you're a, what the, what the west again, equal info, certain military adventures off the point. as far as like, i say, no evidence to actually to suggest that is is the case. so i think, yeah,

that the took you, the chance may to advice is, is getting yeah, itself of this military mistake war or 2 mindset. actually fine, you know, fall in finding bridges to face and bracing diplomas that you're re discovering is diplomatic mission, which is what's, what's the mission it you find for itself in the $9090.00 is what it, what, what it presented deal are they are pop shit. so pace including authorship for peace. yeah, for sure, jeffrey, i'm sorry to interrupt you again, but we, we have run out of time so we're gonna have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much for all of our guests. just on joshi, janita, giovanni, and geoffrey roberts, and thank you for watching you see the program again, any time visiting our website. i'll just you or dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also run the conversation on x i handle. is that a j inside story from him? how much enjoying the whole thing here, bye for now the,

the hard hitting intervenes is israel and obstacles piece. i think that's the new thing you have on his government. with these 5 digit, you say getting less of a thought provoking on the e. you made weapons being used in guns. no guns should be used in an offensive way . that's our facing realities you're running. mean, what does he bring to the table? hard from being presidential, could we go to some we cannot take the fact that he was suddenly present as not that important effective he of the story on talk to. how does he era nearly 300 people died. one flight time, age 17, for shut down of ukraine, but a decade later, i have to fight for just as continues. must go, refuses to hand over 3 men convicted of mass, magic bluff, prosecute us. believe russia's president was directly involved. 101 east investigates the case against them. if boots in on out to 0, this is in regions. that is was me develop thing, but it's one also that is afflicted by conflict. police collapse. we try to balance

the stories, the good, the bad. i've been, and the people allow us into their lives digging into money. see, ask them to tell this story is the, i'm sammy's, a dining dog. how would they look at the headlines here? now just here now, for the beginning, garzo as well as killed at least 50 palestinians in 24 hours. the civil defense says they retrieved at least 60 bodies from gaza. cities should die. a district palestinians returning to the neighborhood have found that homes destroyed is ready forces left to trail of destruction of to withdrawing from parts of georgia. they concluded a 2 week operation in the area last week the you an estimated 10.