of the ukraine's foreign minister visit staging foot folks the 1st trip by ukrainian government representative to china since watches, invasion moments of years ago staging, intensifying diplomatic efforts. why now can they help in the world? this is inside story. the

hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a them now you cranes foreign minister, demitra calais, but as being in beijing, it's the 1st time china as hosted a senior figure in the ukranian government since russia's invasion in 2022. it's the biggest conflict in europe since world war 2. well, which is killed and injured hundreds of thousands of people on both sides major on supplies and funding from nathan e. u. countries of health to crime, fight russia. moscow for its part while its placed its economy on a war footing. despite fears of a nuclear world war, 3 diplomacy seems to have taken a backseat. won't. can we make the latest diplomatic moves then centering on china? could they broker and then to the war? why is it all happening now? we'll discuss sort of that with, i guess in a few moments. but 1st this report from the consume chevy is fighting on the

sometimes one military. i'm, let's say the wall has reached a stalemate. but there are signs of movement on the diplomatic front, which are not playing a significant role. ukrainian for minister mitchell clay, but has this to be, she hoping dialogue will help the fighting has so fulfilled. you create and wants to recap, to touch the russia has see since 2014 most so since it's full invasion, 2 and a half years ago, nipples, china has reaffirmed its respect for ukraine, sovereignty and territorial integrity. this is very important. my chinese colleague clearly said he agrees that we need not the illusion of peace through but a just and sustainable peace. this is what we should strive for. we should not be seeking temporary solution with the but present as a pre condition for any peaceful service. ceasefire russian president vladimir putin once keep to surrender. the full regions fresh of poppy, occupies the last major negotiations between the 2 sides. was in this town both

more than 2 years ago. president loud music lensky has rejected any possible agreements based on fulton simone's but play buzz, visited. china reflect some momentum in diplomatic activity. and multiple says it's open to discussions about ending the will, especially if children, my particular, russia in general, is open to the negotiation process. that's quick. but 1st we need to understand how ready the ukrainian site is for this. and if the crane inside has permission for this form of the curators, because very different statements have been made. china has presented itself as a neutral party, but is remains one of russia has biggest political and economic allies hoping to weaken the impact of sentients going vote. bush of a g that is on china did not create the cry and crisis, nor is it a policy to issue. china has not provided lisa weapons to either side in the

conflict and did not, and will not profit from it. john is positional. the ukraine issue has been consistent and clear. it is urgent to promote peace through a political settlement, one as a peace summit in switzerland last month in the ending was made little progress. russia wasn't invited, china didn't attend and set for major nations in the global south, including brazil, india, mexico, on so the africa refused to sign to communicate the us, you need to have provided ukraine, but extensive military and financial support the most for any one country in modern history, but it's in the back of far away that may be behind the renew diplomatic push. the us press search and election. republican candidate donald trump, is opposed to sending military 8 to ukraine, and as promised to end the bill if he'd been into them by the end of us for if it

were to happen, would dramatically alter the balance so full and not in ukraine's favor. because some shareef watches 0 inside story by spring, i guess into the show now i have joining us from badging. i'm a tango, ne, political and economic affairs specialist and senior fellow at the time institute in moscow. chris, we for the c o of micro advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on russia, and you raise you and in rome. o we matthews, a contributing writer for the spikes. hey, it's a magazine and all for all of overreach, the inside story of futons war against ukraine. thanks for the joining us. that'd be stop with o in in room. so should we read the ukrainian farm? and it says, recent visit to china is a sign that your crime is now trying to focus more on diplomacy as a solution to the war. well, i think unfortunately,

the reality on the ground is that they have, they have increasingly little choice, but to so you can enter the will because the tragically, the one thing that ukraine is running out of as well. the one thing that the west cannot help them with, and that is man and women power on the front lines you crate is experiencing the cute shortage of fighting forces. to the extent that actually they haven't even given the forces that are fighting a break in more than 2 years of complex. the other issue is that uh, the policy of continuing the war for ever or until victory until they get me getting the boat is, is increasingly not working in the favor in the crate in space because they are steadily, i met you not dramatically but steadily losing ground pit by bit to the rest of the steam roller. and the 3rd issue is that the russian strategy of destroying ukrainian electricity infrastructure in particular is going to be devastatingly

telling this winter about, well, what do you like of the, the crime in count talking to they have been able to stabilize the front lines more or less than not losing code for you at least at the pace that they were earlier this year. well, that's correct, that losing it in less quickly. but nonetheless, us the losing it. and the real issue is that the attacks on the electricity infrastructure are actually going to be make may just that is a particular product of the 2nd set to be crated, virtually uninhabitable. this winter, that tactic of attacking energy and infrastructure has actually been seamlessly effective. i'm sorry to say. all right, so the situation on the ground getting more, more complicated. perhaps, chris, how much diplomatic clout and leverage does china having the conflict, particularly overall? sure. if that's where it seems you craigslist now looking to get it to china has

the greatest leverage over boscoe of any other country. because they know that the trade between russia and china has been very sensitive. well, over 25240000000000 dollars this year. the fact that it's time ease of being willing to buy so much russian goods as fly russia with regards to cannot get from the west. for example, the streets are full of chinese cars, but their products that's, you know, help stabilize the economy and other counties for you know, the government, both of these drum financial position. so the chinese do absolutely have the greatest se, and if china up to now, as you know b, i was still decided to, to some extent, if they were to take a greater role, a more forceful role and started pushing for piece a with making you think they want to chris? yeah, i think so. it says look, is us. he's gone for 2 and a half years with dogs,

a peaceful solution and it doesn't look like there's going to be a military victory issue to there. just keep going on and off. and the longer it goes on, the more problems it's crazy for the chinese themselves. so for example, the most challenging, so essentially it's as russia, as trade partners are now dealing with is the us try to retract us that could be sanctions against, by dealing with russia essentially areas. now that's led to a lot of difficulties in cross border payments. it means that russians are finding it more difficult to pay for goods and import goods from china. and china and india are having difficulties and actually paying for the order. so they're starting to be a secondary right effect and negative effect of the chinese economy. i think for all these reasons essentially gives the side of it's time to draw a line and just always take it to badging i that is china media a thing in fact has badging been me the a thing for

a while. if you believe some of the reports, if not for a complete and a to the war and it sort of deal to end everything at least to try and build some comment on the standing some basis for the future of tools. well, i'm going to disagree with my colleague on beijing is not the united state of washington. this idea that you, you go in and settle things by pushing or wait around, hasn't worked otherwise us what am already settled. quite frankly, from being changed point of view. what they can do is set the table and then the people have to sit down. there is no way they're going to force a vladimir, put me to accept some deal that he doesn't want. so i would strongly disagree with my calendar park and in russia, what they haven't done is, since the very beginning, this is of, after all, the 4th round of our shuttle diplomacy that they've been engaged in is they're trying to get them to come to the table to realize this is never going to be one on

the battlefield, despite all the e. u and us protestations that you know, victory is just a few bombs away. you know, they only find that you really suited china does have a lot of leverage here, right? given its tribe where, like, it sounds like the rush i kind of but it can use that kind of leverage is also has a relationship with russia any breakdown. there's nothing that the us with lightning the blank like bore, then to put a wage between moscow and beijing. this, the combination of russian resources and a chinese manufacturing is unparalleled, and eclipses the united states. this is a visceral threats seen in washington. they're trying to figure out how they can pull these 2 apart. it is a 3 corner game dislike. it was during the cold. interesting, chris, can that be a final resident? okay, i'll let you. i think you wanted to come back in, but my,

my question to you is going to be can that be a final resolution without one side basically admitting the feet to some degree, to the of it slightly just very quickly, but to terrify we, i don't disagree or our position is not too different with my colleague from beijing. i always certainly not looking at a situation where i know with not to dictate terms with, with child repeating. you have to do this with you like it or not. know that a spot i meet say is that the child is looking perhaps to create the conditions for a peace process where people come together, but to have to obviously come up with a solution said suit step. so i do not in that. okay, that's a belief that china reports it so we, we agree that advertising can't even have the instrumental role in bringing people together. but in terms of appeasement see, the suspect, the difficulty is we now have a situation where, which is lead heard, officials in here are talking about the need for, for peace talks,

are indicating usually we hear from us. so their willingness to sit down and also move to a piece, talk about the position from both sides is very, very far, are must to say it wants to and fro this for territories. and once you pray and you try to, she's not to join national ukraine. it isn't birthdays. it does not want to give any tertiary. there's some suggestion, perhaps the mike can see russian control over crimea, but not over the for crowds is nice. so we're starting even if the piece of where to start tomorrow, it's both sides are, are very, very far, far apart in terms of the conditions that the say they need for those the stocks. so it sounds like both sides haven't really backed down them that much on the sort of conditions for tools. oh, in, in rome we heard about a week ago. sorry. did you want to come back in that? i'll let you have a brief come back very briefly on the 2014 is when this started in from the russian

point, the, you know, the us back to push a porch and they put in their own government. there were 2 piece plans that were put forward, but it was revealed later, but both of the germans and the french had no intention of following it through that would have left you right intact, independent states. so this idea that there wasn't a path before and then suddenly everyone's being very stubborn. i don't agree with all the chance and let me take this point then to oh, in, in room about a week ago, that may not have been a that may have been a pos before design is pointing out. where is that tough looking now? because about a week ago, we had the crime in present and speak about ending the whole stage of the will by the end of the. yeah. and how not old tired tree needs to be one back by force is the ukrainian position softening a little bit. here let's,

let's be very clear about what kind of an game is feasible in this war. now i think we can argue that pretend very much wants go some kind of strategic comp up involving washington and beijing, which will establish some sphere of influence. that's what he's what he wants, but he's not going to get it. the way this will will end up is it will be a ceasefire. an armistice because from the crate in point of view of the idea of surrendering land for peace. in other words, formerly seating territory is completely inconceivable. ukraine will become ungovernable overnight. there was a huge constituency of people have for them, black and died. and who are very nationalistic, who will immediately topple. any government have been refused to seize, fight that fighting over the you mean a kind of fight? what a, so korea scenario with those nice conflicts is frozen, if not completely resolved as a frozen conflicts, a sci fi along

a line of control. that is what we're talking about. we're not talking about a deal where ukraine conceits, any territory that is domestically politically inconceivable and kia. however, as you rightly mentioned, there have been examples in the diplomatic histories, specifically the whiteness a cypress was divided by 274. the greek side, the cypress, does not acknowledge that politicians, but none the less joined that he was already in nato. they managed to have half a century of peace for north korea as one of south korea also never acknowledge that line of control. and unless they go to it, they get on with their lives. so it's very important to actually see that the kind of back to the what to what the, which we're going with these tools is not some kind of yell to style cub such as the one that ended the world war 21945. it's going to be a cease fire and the rise really the crucial point about this, about these negotiations. chris, what about the russian position?

all they also thinking along those lines of maybe a sort of frozen conflicts. we had recently criminal and spokesman. dimitri pascals welcoming the ukrainian foreign ministers. comments about ukraine's readiness for negotiations with russia saying hey, that's in line with what most goes position always was. do you have to sit for a just what we hear officially from the crumbling and what we're hearing privately or what's being discussed, perhaps off there? so i, the official position is that russia wants control over the territories. and once you printing neutrality, but privately, as all has mentioned, this word armistice has been made. this is a lot and it continues to be mentioned and references to you to cyprus, nor create a trust mirror, and other places are more frequently her. so it seems to me that why there are issues we'll start with the table said they will have control. i believe 7, the ends. they're probably thinking along the lines of an artist provide as they

can get something in return, which essentially means the starting of the unraveling of some of the key sanctions . if they get that done, i think honest, this is definitely the way to go. i'm a dear see, that's why diplomacy, particularly diplomacy by badging is focused on right now. you know, as our guests have been saying, we've got to make it differentiation between what 7 private and once set in public . yeah. once again, i have to make this distinction between the way that washington operates, which is what we're used to when the way that beijing operates. they've shown the way they operate is just bring people to table and not trying to impose their agenda audit in terms of russia and ukraine. the problem is still there. uh, i guess agree that an armistice by itself in a few sanctions are going to solve this. this was always about security. russia felt that the promises made to them that there would not be an expansion of negro

into soviet bloc countries should be honored. the fact that it was not honored and you know, it was approaching ukraine. everybody knew, if you went into your crane, the russians would fight you. and that, that wasn't, you know, a hypothetical. they was absolute. and the greatest states front of us said that, so right now we would have to also include something that says that, uh, ukraine is a neutral that they do not joining nato and do not position missiles in their, in their country aimed at moscow. remember, it's only 5 minutes away from the border to moscow and that, that, you know, as we know, there's a lot more room between cuba and washington. and we were prepared to go to nuclear war back then. okay, do you see o in that? that is actually what ukraine's thinking right now in the diplomatic push that is going on, that the thinking along those lines to make those sorts of concessions on security

. i mean, because what, what we're hearing or we're seeing public so you know, you cry and talk about another peace conference, often the switzerland gathering, preparing for votes in the general assembly on food security, energy and so on. you know, is, is ukraine focused on making concessions on security? o'reilly in the world around it's in trends position before on to that, let me just pick up on something i know said it's, it's a complete mess that has been comprehensively debunked by scholars including mary. lisa ross has spent 15 years and go to the documents that and they say, or the west or the end of the united states, formerly promise not to expand data that literally never happened. it's been completely comprehensively proven that the name of the native did not promise of, of the, the american did not promise not to expand the data. but once you have question the, uh, the crate, the willing, i line, i'll give you

a chance and the 2nd go ahead finish the so and then we'll give either a chance to come back in a historical discussion a by the, by the point is that right now we have a situation where already in the beginning of talks in on, tyler i'm in this dumble, it's pretty clear i've spoken to several of them participants that will literally add that table with some of the on the pregnant side. but the credit is well willing to concede a form neutrality right at the beginning of the war. now that was probably a deal that ukraine, that russia should have taken by the way, because what you create, what was on the table, was basically talking the issue of the state as view of ukraine having a rest and withdrawal to the board as before, the full scale and based on the 2022 and crucially ukrainian neutrality you pregnant wasn't 5, formerly neutral between 201-2015 constitutionally so they changed it back. and

the issue of the cranes what the membership is rather than just want to go for, for a deal. i mean, something along those lines has been reportedly proposed in different venues. they stumbled towards russia. that's what i'm talking about. yeah, i mean will also there are claims from the other side that it was the ukrainians who didn't want to go for it because they were promised a lot of lessons in the last minute. also, the narrative goes anyway that i'll give you a brief cover soon. too. okay, all right, let me let the i in the come back in you a brief one item before we move on. yeah. oh and i, yeah, i disagree with you. i read the howard baker's memo that was sent to the, to the leader of russia. it's very clear, it was not in writing, i'm a lawyer, i understand that. but this idea that the russians never thought that knew who was going to continue or that it was going to expand in those areas. so this idea that somehow because we didn't promise it, you know,

you don't have to know we can do whatever we want. it kind of childish. all right. you know what was you will lose less points. uh go ahead let. okay, license plate palmer. let's leave a history for the historians. go ahead, chris. yeah, no, i wasn't good. is it just the quick like this? we use that just to reinforce the fact that this is all you know, by creating a ukraine the ship to receive grace. the fact is that national have had a border with the rest of the baltics for, for decades, and you've been has joins ne, so i'm also complained a bit behind replaced. so ukraine is on always has to be a very different situation and separate from nation. we want to go back to in rome, let's shift gears of the o and talk about wind. now thing one thing we can all agree on is that has been some kind of uptake in diplomatic activity. is this to do with the us elections being close and perhaps some particularly in care of you know,

wondering about where that might leave them. so suddenly um, but i think the us elections uh, not necessarily as relevant as one might imagine. i think the last major us aid package was the last major us a package that was delayed by 6 months. um, it went through enormous political rocks, was to get that past, even with a democratic president in the white house. that was, i say, no, going to be in of a $60000000000.00 a package for the very simple reason that actually i think is bid as a little diminishing returns on these. i mean, the 1st 60000000 package was supposed to fund the great break through the 2023 but never happens. second one, there was no great breakthrough creighton in the some of that continued to lose. so actually the signal and the delay, which i oh is it a 2 months delay in that you're a pin. uh, a package of 50000000000. yeah. and as well. yeah, sure. but but, but, but actually the, the, but that,

that was not military package that was most of alienated practice. but indeed the significance of the us elections is because the kitchen sink that is going to be a game changer. and there is no conceivable reason. this includes end to end this war before he knows the result of the november election because he thinks that he could get a better deal out of trump. now i, as we possibly think that the deal, but trump will end up doing if he's president or however it will end up doing if he kept becomes president. is the same deal. it will be partition of ukraine. they faxed a note that your line of control plus security guarantees full ukraine, showed a full name membership, but very importantly, mirrored by security guarantees from the chinese side for the russians. that's how is going to get down. all right, and i that and, and there's not going to be support for a forever war, even among the very strongly pro ukrainian democrats in the you got it. all right. i, that i want imagines those kinds of calculations as something that badging is keeping

in mind. in its mind as it tries to navigate this one. well, let's see how you're basing as navigating. they're going on going to global south countries and asking them how they feel about this and whether they will be supportive. and it does not sound like the old cold war narrative that is being espoused by on. this is really about a new way of doing it, trying to drive consensus, trying to get countries to understand that they're the, you know, there's, there's some pressure from the other countries that this is not something that should go on forever. the china be a bridge, china, not only between russia and ukraine, but also between. so we say that the global south and the west over this conflict to i don't know that it's a bridge between, between the west it's, it's definitely a conduit for feelings about this in the global south. and you've seen that the time and time again. it echoed in the halls of the countries themselves as opposed

to what washington is trying to tell them to say a chris of a very final word from you. then we touched briefly on this, but the reality on the ground. do you think that either side has reached the conclusion yet that they can't go much further in terms of absolutely resolving this one through minute trainings on the ground? that's certainly the impressions and a half inches i guess. and i, you know, i think that even in moscow where you could say, arguably their position stronger the economy is in good shape is good for your support for the, for the kremlin, as well as for the military activity. you know, they're making progress on the bottom, so, you know, the, even if it's motto, so the russians position appears to be a lot stronger. but yes, we have certainly seen this kind of change in position where they are now. definitely the, indicating that they're more willing to, to, to, to talk to, to, to start this process. and the reason for it to say briefly are 2 factors. one of

course, they feel that they are in a strong position that they perceive ukraine's position should be getting tougher as on managers. next, it is harder to get money to the critical factor military, of course, is running out of people. it's actually so the to feeling the registrar position right at the same time. so there's a lot more narrative the most about the fact that science use accumulation is starting to have the tax. the economy is a great sick today, but in 12 months time, especially after just massive sanctions, it might be different. so all of those factors of kind of leads that to the conclusions, it's time to draw a line, them just. all right. it's also time to draw a line on the show. unfortunately, although the discussion has been in great shape isn't good to have a little bit of different perspective as well. let's thank all of our guests for joining us. i know chris and oh and the and thank you to for watching. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're don't. com. i

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