of the it's an election that could bring major change to venezuela. president nicholas my door, always seeking another 6 years in office. but after a decade of economic crisis, many are disillusioned with the country socialist revolution. so could it be in there, it's in, and how's the sole being viewed in the region? this is inside sort the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much of june it's being called the most consequential election independence whaler in a generation. the opposition is hoping for an overwhelming victory that could force president nicholas enduro to negotiate a transition of power. the challenge is the biggest, the countries socialist regime is faced in 25 years. years of economic collapse and political repression have worn down the socialist revolution. started by late president hugo chavez, in 1999. the election campaign has been marred by claims of widespread harassment and the rest of dozens of opposition activists. institutions loyal to the president have not allowed millions of venezuelans abroad to register to vote. and bard, the opposition primary winner from running. if madura was defeated, well, he recognized the results or try to stay in power. and what does the outcome mean prevent as well and the south american region? we'll discuss all of that with our guest and a few moments, but 1st, this report from victoria again be this is as to being in power for more than

a decade in venezuela. president nicholas madura was seeking us the time he's promising to continue the socialist revolution. started by late president hugo chavez in 1999. just showing you the model that i am nicholas mal, do it on the president people and i will recognize the electro referee, the official bulletins, and they will be respected. i call on the 10 presidential candidates to declaim publicly, that they will respect the official results. but the opposition is hoping for an overwhelming victory. many people say they're exhausted after use of economic collapse and political repression. we some polls suggest around 2 thirds of voters and likely to support any kind of depth, but majority of the people should go out to invite voting is a right and a duty as well. and we need to slowly improve things. i hope everything goes smoothly, but essentially, i hope people go out and 1st then as well as economy has been in crisis since the

price of oil plunged around a decade ago, triggering hyperinflation and closing nearly 8000000 people to leave the country. that crisis has been worse and by sanctions imposed by the united states in 2019 the us government claims madura insisted ministration for economic mismanagement and corruption. the united states is not going to prejudge the outcome. this is a choice for venezuelans to make. but the venezuelan people deserve and election the genuinely reflects their will. free from that even if you're lation. any impulse suggest opposition? candidates as monday gonzales is the front runner with the significant leaders and the doors. he says he'll lead what he called a peaceful democratic transition in venezuela and encouraged those who best to return well being open to an amnesty for government officials being investigated for crimes rights groups are concerned the election wouldn't be free or for maria corinne, i'm a charge a one, the opposition primary with 93 percent of the sites,

but it's been banned from running majority is wanting. the country could face a blood bass if he's not re elected and accuses gonzales of being a pop is at the united states. the election results is likely to have far reaching consequences for venezuela and the south america region. victoria gates and b l. just a rough inside story. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guess in caracas. paula the l. m on is a venezuelan opposition politician and academic. in washington dc. davis. polanski is the former mayor of a cut off his district now living and exile. it was also the former envoy for venezuelan migration and refugee crisis for the organization of american states and then london. christopher sabatini is a senior fellow for latin america at the chatham house, think tank and founder of the americans quarterly, periodical, dedicated to politics, business and culture in the americas. thanks so much for joining us today, and we appreciate your time, david, let me start with you today. how consequential is this presidential election

independence way of a? how high are the stakes? so i use the story of these election some opportunity for us to start us on session to democracy to. ready color or liberties they provide the continued you for more than a 1000000 people outside the country to go back to the united families and no one's soul these day you call me at least on pain, even though all the repression of the bottom stuff will be has promoted with more than a 120 activities members of our team diabetes chain. but where here people are voting from very early in the morning and hopefully we can start to transition this evening because we're going to take this one of them. so i'm going to. ringback david, let me just follow up with you because this is the 1st time in years the, all the opposition united that they're not boy cutting the left elections in some

form. how vigilant are they going to be able to be when it comes to guarding against any type of election or, or voter fraud? what steps is the opposition take you in order to try and ensure free and fair elections as well? the selections are not. ready yeah, no sir. uh we international sedation is very maybe the on the control center was allow, we bided almost a 100. the international service the members of parliament. ringback from europe, from different countries of europe, for pressing the before to prosecute the g. b. however, we got to be the strongest uh, cv organization for any section of the sort of us we speed warehouse seats, $100000.00 business swims deployed in every full center. we're having full watches, what i'll do is we're going to have people defending the. ready every,

every paul said before the selection lasagna as was a, i move a little 25 or 30 points on the east. everyone was we was thinking, i want to vote today. we're going to, we hopefully those are results. i want to be recognized by the one doc for lead a piece of transition lunch. paula, the opposition leader maria coach carina machado. she won the opposition primary with 93 percent of the vote, but she was banned. earlier this year from running for president, her campaign promise of re unification with family members of, of, of making the country a safe again and prosperous enough for all those millions who fled in the last several years to come back. how much is that a play in the selection as well? i think the, the, the role of my, the, my, to a so we're national leaders. it's the key to success. she's the one who has been in

the country to this process. she, as you said, she was banned to run for the presidency. now our time, the lady said window outside of philadelphia who has been campaigning with her around the country. and i think that's her leadership. it's been quite important and relevant in all this process and, and probably let me just ask you, you mentioned that one to gonzalez. he's the opposition candidate. he was an obscure, retired diplomat, not very well known and didn't really have political aspirations until this coalition of opposition parties picked him as their candidate. now there are pulls that have him potentially leading a door by 20 to 25 percent. how remarkable is the rise of gonzalez in this election cycle? yes, as you said, that the 3 months ago was retired and bus other here in venezuela. he

represented our country and different the overseas in different countries. and well, he became the candidate after medical didn't know until west bend and all the success he's because medical, you know, said he was, he's come to the country, trust her. and now we trust him. christopher um the door. oh, he's the one that the country could face a blood bath if he is not re elected, how much worry is there about the potential for violence if my door loses? there's certainly the concern, but much of this will hinge on what the armed forces do. i think in part of what he was trying to do and sending that message and then it actually frightening even his neighbors. you heard the president of argentine expressed his concern, the president of brazil who used to be an ally, made a joke to president little as known, to be quite jovial in his remarks that i don't want to see a blood bath and want to see your bathrooms. boats, he's, he's a lot of people,

but his capacity to implement that sort of agenda, 1st of all, indicates his unwillingness to your power. and clearly, you know, that for perhaps good reason. there is a number of, of a diamonds. augusta, including in the international criminal court, but there's also a $15000000.00 bounty on his head of the us drug enforcement administration for narcotics trafficking. i'm sure he's clearly frightened to have to step down, but it's unclear whether if it comes to this, whether the armed forces would stand by him would obviously, over the last 25 years, the little government of his predecessor, hugo chavez, of co opted and corrupted and politicized the military. but it looks like you know, the front of drew, my friends, paula and david, who are much closer to this, was like lower down in the rankings. whether it's non commissioned officers or, or foot soldiers. it's not clear whether they actually support this government, so you know who, who, who without a leash on his own people,

we don't know. but it isn't clear that he's going to have because daugherty to do that or legitimacy to do that, given the very substantial lead that the opposition has. and also given the fact that you're a nice community, despite the very limited presence of has, is, is, some of them are on the ground and they're all paying attention. oh, christopher, you mentioned those warrens, those outstanding warrants for the door. oh and, and there has been some analysis in the past the, perhaps if he were to lose there, there were experts and analysts who said that maybe there could be outside players that could try to negotiate some terms for him to leave office. maybe he could seek some kind of an amnesty. do you think you'd be willing to do that? is there anything that could happen by any outside players that would make him more amenable to the parting office? if he were to lose to question the hama, i would say 1st in this there been discussions, not just secret discussions between the us and the government, but also with neighbors, brazil, and columbia that you get if you will,

a sort of get out of jail free pass and that's also will probably be extended to the 50 or so other government officials who are under sanctions. and that's going to be essential. you need to provide an extra around for some of these individuals so that the cost of leaving power not so high that they cling to it by all means possible. now, there are also a number of international criminal court indictments against a model and several members of the government for crimes against humanity. those can't be wished away. the can't just as you know, it is up to the i c. c. however, there is a process that will allow it the i c, c to devolve the process of investigating to that as well. if there's a credible process that sort of the truth and reconciliation commission that may allow them to. and boy, avoid conviction david's era christopher there, talk about what role the military might play going forward from your vantage point . what do you think we could see happen if my door always to lose?

there is a concern that there could be violence. could somebody, could some players step in to try to convince him to step away if he were to be defeated in this election as well? that's a very important question. first of all, violence be promoted by by the company. ringback or one of the on the 20 octaves from see the society vice agents on the. ringback on my work to be paid on 6 of them by the way, all right, dolly never produced. i was name was the one piece we want democracy one freedom the one to other countries. ringback joseph, easy to model where we'll talk. ringback people to the. ringback ringback and bully are the. ringback calls are even the model number with

a nice there are forces to baby constitution does the on the request that we are the we update the constitution. i respect. ringback interest. ringback ready to a doctor. ready constitutionally, trust, asian to democracy, the best way to we'll start, as i said earlier, i promised agent to democracy business by not one, only been in the business with us, but we wouldn't be the whole region east, my hulu, for the sales force. i forecast up between one and 2000000 people i bought into the uh, the country little one by the will. david, let me talk to you a little bit more about that issue because. ready since 2014, there's been more than 7700000 people that have fled vin as well. that's according to the un refugee agency. that's one of the largest instances of mass displacement in modern history. and the opposition has made it a pillar of their campaign that if the door oh,

is defeated. that if the opposition prevails, that people will be able to come back. there will be for you. and if occasion something we've touched upon in our conversation here today as well, how much is that? something that is driving people to go out and vote how much is hemorrhaging on that issue in this election so much every time. the $49.00 talented windows honors were riding the country to contain you to lease into a round pardons, the wanton. ringback their grandchildren a box the best way to do so you you lease into 2 mothers that want that. ringback keeps going back to the so i got so nbc, something so i guess because the something sometimes from the people because one of the most the people space that we have software has been this while i'm speaking. ready you used to have our properties is separated and also let me out because you

lost me all the reach out to the back you all these evening on. i think brussel and columbia play a key role to a us us pretty said both. the problem is all these based on a little bit from model especially when. ready to say that you. ready are gonna be long fast and they play a. ready role today i'm, i'm going to be a beast to one part of the transition which by the way, the other 2 countries most i think we, we de migration. ringback is already more than 3000000. ringback features, unless you have more than 5 100000, which by the way, more than a $100000.00 off, $500000.00 a month to, to the seal sees the selective price. chris, right? i thought you're reacting right now to what david was saying. it looked like you wanted to jump in, so i'm gonna let you go ahead and pick it up. i didn't want to have to jump through, but i will. no, i agree with david entirely. and this is what's interesting now is in columbia and

brazil have, if you will. so a state here and a free and fair election. it's in part because there's the very real threat that if my daughter was re elected according surveys between 20 to 30 percent of the people will leave more will leave. this is a huge national embarrassment to venezuela to the government. it shouldn't be. and so you, brazil, and in columbia been very good about opening up their borders and stuff. i know she's worked with them providing social services, helping them get residents cards. but there's a, there was a limited capacity of what these governments can can can absorb bump. and there's another issue here as well as for president lula, brazil who basically was able to be assume office despite attempts to undermine the election by the outgoing president ball scenario. and despite both scenarios, incitement of a rebellion attempting to stage a cru spot shortly after below was inaugurated. this really strikes close to home i,

eula, and really freedom a child. i may not have much in common how geologically, but they're both democrats and lulu really feels this very much in his own political history. so i think that really, despite some misgivings about little as previous embrace of a good chavez, i think you now see a real commitment on the part of the presenting government, the part of colombian government to make sure that the electoral standards are met and the citizens voices are heard in the selection. and paul, i also saw you are just now a reaction to what christopher was saying. it looks like you wanted to, to add to it to the point he was making. so please go ahead. yes, i just want to add the, the positions of breath in bed through, i'm breathy and lula reveals that the brother internet. so a lot, it's not ideological. it's not about the left and right. it's about democracy, it's about democracy and dictatorship. and we have democratic leaders in our neighborhood, the lived in america that are making all the efforts to health fitness williams to move forward, the more pressing

a pallet. let me also ask you about something the both the christopher and david were touching on their previous answers, which is this concern about how many more people may leave may flee venezuela if the door oh is re elected. there pulls out there suggesting that more than 30 percent of the country will leave if my door wins again. do you think that is accurate? and i think that maybe our more i have since that is that said the 4 out of 10 minnesotans will leave the country. if my they were to remain same bower and the, the explanation of dust or reaction is poverty and misery. we have 6 out of them. vanesso islands lives under extreme poverty. and we have a humanitarian crisis. i'm leaving here is very hard finding, correct us and you know, a lot of inequality and it's something that it's new in our history because it's

been a slates. uh, oil country, we have oil, petroleum and, and we're not used to have these levels of the warranty. and that's why people live decides to leave. david, i want to go back to, to a point you were making earlier because you were saying that the region, there's a lot of a lot of concern in the region about this election. and one of the concerns is what might happen if it is perceived that my door has stolen this election. um, there's not a lot of consensus right now that people believe that this will be a free and fair election. so what are the next steps if, if people don't think it's a free and fair election if it is perceived that the door has still on the election? what happens? well, we've got international community play a cube, all right. as you come across

new tribes. this moment the reader knows very well that needs to empower. ready 6 more years, more people are going to be on the security of the. ready also will be in danger. democracy in the region won't be present, at least not what people think. i'm happy everyone knows is up for you. recently of july, that was the direction that you everyone knew before the party was going to. we have probably the same advantage, so when the on site is having now we, we, we, we model because that's what democracy the results were. the ones that people were expecting. so, but that is why that is how these to, to make sure, you know the counters that even though everyone knows the on site is a we well because your vision or it's already you know, that those evictions for those are so long not be right. so that is why the

international community on to be using that, the dramatic tools, these very both of them, as i said earlier on the armed forces in the constitution to christopher, since we're talking about the uh yeah, go ahead. i was gonna ask you something, but go ahead, go ahead. yeah. so what, what, what are the things, 1st of all, i mean seeing the people to uh for these elections and powers alluded to this as well. literally. yeah. they started yesterday is inspiring. uh, you know, in a region in the world now we worry about the decline of democracy to watch. people turn out and door heat waiting in line and even at the risk of having their vote potentially stolen. it is truly inspiring, should be aspiring, not just for venezuelans, but also for the world, especially when by the way of venezuela, the government. this invited the european union from sending in both election observers, but then sent russian and invited russian and chinese election observers. not countries well known for their electoral standards,

but this indicates to that this is not just about the region or for that as well. and so we're deeply suffering. this is also about geo politics about this coalition of, of malign regimes that are striking the tires and really dumpling down and not just trying to suppress their own citizens. but we make the global order very much in their favor. again, sort of, oh, the western international liberal order a pallet. let me ask you what, what is the mood on the ground? what are you hearing of from folders are, are they excited to be out there? you know, expressing who they want to be. the next president, do they believe that their vote will actually count? what is the mood? well, that's a wonderful question and i just bought a half an hour ago. and you can see democratic joy in the streets. people are doing peaceful their lines. respectfully, a pacific constitutionally civic reactions. even though we know

these are elections are far from being fair or free, is amazing and it's really moved. but moving to see the democratic commitment of the minnesota people all around the country. this is a, i'm from the poorest and rural sectors to the oregon and big cities in the country . so as chris said, and it's really moving to hear him saying that seeing this yesterday night, we're seeing big lines outside the electoral centers to, to load. and that's all what we are asking, we're asking to vote and go back to the more proceed in a peaceful way. and the answer is, is going to happen or not. and it will be the hospital. i mean he, he needs to make the good decisions to let us make our boat that

a way to go back to the more prosy. christopher, you were talking a couple of minutes ago about the geo politics and the role that plays and all of this. now i want to ask you specifically about the relationship between the us and the venezuela. because sometimes it can be a little hard to figure out exactly what's going on to us, of course, imposed, you know, you know, very harsh sanctions which contributed to the, you know, economic despair and even as well. uh then some of them were lifted. it seems in the past few months to some of them were reimpose. where are things right now when it comes to the us and there sanctions and the, the promise of either potentially lifting sanctions if there's one outcome or maybe imposing more sanctions. if there's another outcome in this election as so, yeah, so 1st of all, as in 2019, the trump administration imposed what it called maximum pressure sections which prohibited the investment by ford companies in the event of all important venezuela, oil and gas sector, which represents 90 percent of its exports probably still does,

but they took the amount of strong considerably and also prevented or made it illegal to for the venezuela cell, which orland gas on the international market. although it did so through pirated schemes with, with china, with a ron and with russia but, but with a body ministration to try to incentivize the return to the negotiating table. but for me, oh, and then also realizing that the elections were coming up in 2020, for the body ministration signals very strongly. that is willing to lift some of those sanctions. if the by the government committed to free and fair elections and a set of conditions around those free and fair elections. and that was, we're announcing october 17th, october 18th, and the next day us announced a series of, of limited sections with the potential a snap back very shortly thereafter. the government didn't really follow those commitments. but the us decided to wanted to commit and stay on that doesn't grow believing can this could be an exit. so it did return some of those sanctions in april of this year. but, you know, the,

the bed was placed that eventually in the people wanted to vote and that the risk was higher to completely go back to those matching pressure sanctions. and let my daughter provide another excuse for him to call off the whole process. and i think what we're seeing now is, excuse me, perhaps of a weird metaphor, but i think we're seeing the toothpaste is out of to it. it's going to be impossible for mode or whatever happens to put it back in. and, but if he tries, there's going to be that threat of sections return and that will, will severely damping his room for maneuver even within his inner circle and within his own paul or political party. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guest, paula, i'm on david smith, lansky and christopher sabatini. it's a thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out 0. com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside stored. you can also drive the conversation on x. i handle it as a j inside story for me. how much improvement hoping here, bye for now,

the wants of the capital of the compare empire. the serene ancient city of uncle and president, they can vote here is it protected unesco world heritage site. but as its temples, the lakes and irrigation canals are being preserved, many of its inhabitants are being relocated. people in power, investigate see events forced evictions of thousands of families. the bottom for the soul of anchor box, pots, and $11.00 of the just the unique perspectives could be really not done because jesse i left and nothing if something is always on heard voices. but we are committed to guessing best i can. all of you. so much connect with our community and talking to conversations you will find elsewhere. lot of these

positions, if there was problems or medical facilities in golf as it would be preventable. that's the heart of what's the stream on our, just the or or in the end to live with anger and bitterness of hatred. it if you up inside. and i can tell you that from personal experience, you have to be able to that go to go for the journey was a great success. but there's no success until you've achieved the actual thing that you set out for that is the release, at least of the one present or that we've been focusing on on a personal level, i think returning to this place as being the, it's just a dream to the background part of it was a nightmare. so it's a nightmare and a dream come together. i think the dream has overtaken the night

too fast, career police receive up to 200 reports while it's every day. 101 east to investigate . career lead from one out to 0. the . the don't want me to put on them and distance and use our life from jo. how coming up in the next 60 minutes? the best way to state controlled and natural counseling, defense presidents nicholas mother, one of the, one of sunday's election. the opposition disputes, the result saying it's candidates and window gonzales. one of the most part slots counsel delayed as favors f. portion of the tensions between as one of them has

fall we mean victims of torture and saddam.