time seemed one year resource that change, it became clear at that point, but we really were in that kind of a new era of nobel peace, slower it's maria, ressa and professor michael wooldridge and explore the pedals and possibilities of artificial intelligence. it changes the way we think, and then the way we all can protect ourselves. studio b, b, a i series on a jersey to the us is showing up its military command in japan. washington says that's the counter growing threats from china, north korea and russia. but is this a realistic deterrent for could i provoke more tension in an already volatile region? this is inside store the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much in room the united states is. it's re vamping, it's a military command in japan. as the 2 countries face, what they call the greatest strategic challenge from china, us defense secretary lloyd austin says it's the most significant change since the military alliance was formed. 70 years ago, washington in tokyo say there increasingly concerned by what they call and evolving security environment. they accuse china of engaging and course of behavior to change the status quote when the east and south china seas around taiwan and throughout the region. the revamp comes of china is expanding as nuclear arsenal and russia is strengthening, military ties with north korea. how will this agreement change the security relationship between the us and japan? and how will china respond? we'll discuss all that in a moment, but 1st this report from it to victoria gave me the chinese minutes. we drills hills around time when they jing believes the self golf and dive in this part of china and re unification. it is inevitable. it's not ruled

out taking taiwan by force, the us and japan say such joint see and directs the sizes are an example of china's increasing the aggressive behavior around the island as well as in the east and south china sea. they describe the people's republic of china, or po, see as the greatest strategic threat facing the region. we strongly oppose the park . these efforts to unilaterally change the status quo by force. and he's trying to see in the south china sea, around taiwan. we agree on the importance of upholding peace and stability across the taiwan strait. japan host more than 50000 us troops that take that road is from america, is in the pacific come in and in hawaii. but that's moved in 6000 kilometers away and 19. now is behind japan, the 2 countries have announced a revamped joint command and control structure of the changes that this will be the most significant change to us forces japan, censors creation. and one of the strongest improvements in our military ties with

japan in 70 years. to change as calm as china is rapidly expanding its nuclear also, the washington in tokyo, also worried about brushes, renew, defense ties with pre own yang goods. and she had no clue, reaffirmed cool for the competing the nuclear eyes, ation of north korea. and we also shade our concerns about russia and north korea's military cooperation, a japan, the agreement with the us monks a significant shift from decades of pacifism, since world war 2. it's been a shift which has been a bit of a tug coming by the essentially the flexibility of interpretation of the cycle past this constitution is allowing for this or right to expansion of a potential as well the deputies. so if the defense forces in the region projects say the bolstering of us military bases, anastasia is likely to be seen as a threat by some countries, and sub escalate tensions in un, or whether you fold

a tall region. victoria gates and b i, which is a roof the inside story. the all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. joining us from badging is victor go, vice president of the center for china and globalization, a leading chinese think tech in tokyo, someone he kinda glitchy is a special advisor at the would you to future study center and then single for evan likes. mamma is an editor at the institute for strategic studies. he also researches indo pacific defense and strategy. a one welcome to all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. so when he called, let me start with you today. how significant is this strengthening of the military alliance between the us and japan, and how will it change the security relationship between both countries? it has actually been very long time coming because japan, despite the fact that it's got 3 services of mandatory, there has never been

a joint operations command. in other words, japanese services have locked. it's no center in japan is a building, it's no center. and united states has now concluded that it is going to build and establish the corresponding command as a theater command. looking after not only japan, but also in this part of the world. because as your reporter noted, that us in the pack in the pacific command is too far away. and quick response is very much necessary. there has got to be re vamping, of the us command structure corresponding to the similar changes that have been taking place in japan and both to expand and re, uh,

re firm and strengthen the joint deterrence capabilities. certainly these are the china victor. so the us and japan describe the people's republic of china as the greatest strategic threat facing the region. how will china be responding to all of this in the near and the long term? and i think the 2 plus 2 meetings in tokyo and the so called the revamp y'all, the us come out in japan, you are real evidence to show that the bible administration will be recalled. it's by history as a cold war, administration of people like blank um and the, the secretary of defense of cold war is fortunately they are on their way out. and i think by the generates on the 25 it will be called into, i believe yet, because if all the time we use the election, they will be call and there's a couple of harris with wins the election. she most likely will re bought the state

department and the secretary the department of defense completely. fortunately, this visit is the last for all the cold war administrator generation on the preston body. therefore, i think we need to emphasize one point. but people in this part of the world does not need a cold war because people do not want to have what we want to have. peace and stability and cooperation to single out of china as an enemy is completely misjudged. china is a staunch falls for peace. china is a staunch falls for promoting global tre, trying those, but not just the trading nation in the world, trying those but not just the trading pod, no was more than 100. and so the nations in the world including japan, amazingly. therefore, if any country to single out of china as an enemy,

it definitely demonstrates the i that being said, all that completely out of their mind, misjudgment being the most dangerous for to evan. you heard victor there, talk about the specter of the us presidential election coming up in november. and i want to ask you about how that looms over all of this when it comes to the us as allies in the region. is there a sense of worry about what were to happen when it comes to a disagreement in other potential alliances? if donald trump is re elected to a 2nd term, and what exactly of the stance will be from comma harris if she is elected as the next president of the us. and i think certainly there is momentum to institutionalize and deep an existing arrangements before and you with ministration comes in and receive this. whether it's about the long term programs like office with australia and the u. k. or in what be seen in terms of its alliance with the,

with japan, south korea and the philippines. so it is certainly in the minds of policy makers in the region and among us allies. that regardless of who becomes the new president, we need to institutionalize as much as we could as the best we could. so that whoever comes next uh, wouldn't be able to change all of these things. uh, just because he or she would like to. and this brings us to the issue of, of kamala harris. i do think that she will likely bring in some of the veteran foreign policy hands, whether in the state department or the defense department, and likely those who are familiar with asia as well. so there's some expand if kamala wins, i think we would like to see perhaps a lot more continuity with abided ministration. and yet i do think the tone and style perhaps might be a bit different. i think the reality of the regional secured is that such that some

of the momentum that we see on the us l, i, side of things, may not tearing into the non us alliance part of the security relationship. but typically in countries in southeast asia, and this is where the us needs to do more work to convince the rest of the region that it is seeking, regional stability and peace. and even if we're talking about geo politics, i want to ask you what are the strategic implications of the us shoring up its military commands in japan? and i think it's certainly big in terms of inter operability with japan. we've seen this progress as well. uh with us allies in other places. so the need to have inter operability is a key component for the us as ability to deter any regional conflict, whether it's involving china or other countries. so certainly that, that step with japan is a significant one and should not be should that be under estimated. however,

i do think that when it comes to regional peace and stability, there are concerns outside of us airlines, particularly in countries in the region who are not us allies of what happens to them. are we witnessing a 2 floor regional security architecture for the us and its allies are the top building and those are not us allies at the lower floor? what happens if they cannot work better with us? uh we and its allies. so i do think that the momentum, uh that's been going very well on the us and its allies may not carry over in terms of the rest of the region. and this is what concerns about regional tension and contingency planning comes in, because not everyone that has the luxury of its alliance with the united states. so i think i want to look for a moment and it's sort of the backdrop of, of what's going on. some of the issue is a play in japan right now because this reconfiguration of the security relationship between the us and japan. this comes at a time when,

you know japan has been shifting its defense posture in recent years. japan has, has. ready we shifted dramatically from decades of postwar pacifism. right? it? yes and no, no, because if you look at the amount of defense budget, which has certainly increased compared to what it was like 30 years ago, japanese defense spending has grown by 27 percent. whereas chinese defense budget has gone during the same period of 30 years, 3500 percent, meaning $35.00 times as large as it was. so japan should certainly spend 10, it's determines capabilities, but there is a keen awareness. japan could do nothing alone by itself, which is why japan is very much paying much attention to strengthening its

alliance relationships and partners with the united states. a strategy of the philippines, vietnam, and india, and so on, so forth. victor of moscow has bolstered its ties with badging in the wake of the invasion of ukraine. how much is all of that playing into this? thank you very much for asking this very important question. but allow me to add one point fairly quickly. first, i see what the united states and japan i'll talk to you about on the violation of the japanese constitution, which prohibits the deployment of japanese forces outside of japan. therefore, it is illegal as far as this constitution violation is concerned. and i think people danger pads are really wake up and call all the government to take the right measure. rather than being hijacked onto the bandwagon of the united states in its pursuit of geo political. ready all minutes,

people or other countries in the world, they do not want to be dominated. if japan says it wants to be dominated by the united states, which bomb the to city is with nuclear weapons. be my guest. now you talked about china, russian relations, china and russia, share 4300 killed because long of folder and the border has been peaceful ever since. 1991 when russia became independent and we treasure this piece. i've tried quality of cooperation along the china, russian border, and we consider this trunk real peaceful baldor as one of the most important to us of overall your ration stability. and china and russia are dealing with each other as normal neighbors and countries which want to promote each of those business and trading relations. charlotte does not recognize the wall being ukraine

as a legitimate war. china wants to have this war achieving ceasefire and wrapped up as quickly as possible. china has always been talking to rochelle the one hand that you create on the other end, about the actual, the subsidy of the war. and trying that does not provide any weapon of any kind to either russia all to ukraine. that's all i think is true. we'll put china on the right side of history as the only significant country in the world today to cause lee called in for peace and seized by uh, the end. the hospital it is immune was a lot more lot to be say, both in russia as well as in your crate for law in the wall is the wrong thing to do. and i've seen property, donald trump has the right thing to say. but if he's elected, you will at the walk in 24 hours, i hope it will be able to deliver that as he promised someone he co,

victor. there was saying that from his standpoint, he believed that this agreement violated the constitution in japan. i just wondered if you had any thoughts about that or wanted to respond well, i would like to say uh that uh, japan needs to change its constitution to make it happen as a just a go has mentioned for the nation to deliver uh, troops outside the nation, but japan's constitution sofa has enabled japanese on forces to defend the nation. only the nation. japan cannot do anything that australia has been doing all the time, but it's alliance button of the united states. so miss ago may have his own interpretation of japanese constitution, but there's been no discussion about the way there in japan to deliver japanese

trips outside of its country. evan, i had asked victor about concerns about rushes, deepening ties with china. how that is planning to let me ask you, how worried are the us and japan about russia's renewed defense ties with north korea? and how much is that playing into this? i mean, certainly the renewal of russian north korean ties is a source of concern for european countries as well as the united states. they have thought that i wish supplies of all kinds of ammunition and other equipment from dpr k to a restaurant that will allow russia to, to prolong the war and certainly make things a lot more harder to find that that particular ceasefire that we've discussed earlier. however, i think the issue around north korea is also becoming a lot more complicated, not just in terms of it supports the restaurant, but also it's belligerent behavior in the region as well. um, so in that sense,

the next is, are the conversions between north korea, russia and china does add these, this sense of urgency. i think among us and its allies to sustain the momentum in terms of closing the gas of inter operability enhancing capabilities. but also finding new ways to collaborate in terms of the defense, industrial assistance programs, resilience and others. i do think the urgency has, has grown precisely because of rush us ability to sustain itself now in the war and grow it's partnership with, with north korea. but i do think the relationship between russia, north korea and china itself, i think we mains particularly uncertain. we know that there is a pragmatic relationship at this point between the 3. but i'm not entirely convinced that this or that between the 3,

the relationship is an equal and an enduring one. so i do thing, yes, it actually urgency. but i'm not entirely clear yet that these 3 countries are strong allies in that sense. to victor, a couple of minutes ago, you mentioned donald trump and what a 2nd potential trump presidency may mean or may not mean going forward. i want to ask you from, from your perspective, what has happened in the past 24 hours when it comes to strengthening these ties between us and japan. what that is going to mean in the immediate future for the relationship between china and the us as the child abuse this uh, 2222 pos to uh, reading ink talked to uh as a result of technol racial as illegal because it violates the constitution of japan, and you may even violate the conditions upon which your finding out conditionally surrender to china in 1945. therefore, travelers watching the develop that very closely and distinguish the japanese

panelist. i mentioned the pessimistic constitution in japan. let me ask us why japan does have this pessimistic constitution because they own collision. literally surrender. it was forced upon japan and japan is prohibited from launching any war of aggression inc. perpetuity. so don't think about tinkering with the constitution because no one will allow that. countries like china will never allow japan to reconstitute is constitution to enable laws of aggression by japan. again, in this part of the world, japan should permanent, they remain as a passerby, as the country, as the conditions upon which japan unconditionally surrender back in 1945 feel rich. if the united states urges japan in the wrong direction, the united states will be held responsible at japan. it follows the jeff jeff us,

leadership de venturing out of its country with its military troops. it will again the growth waves as such. look of the united nations chopped up. there are provisions to prevent japan and germany, which condition unconditionally. so right under the loved team, $45.00. from exactly during this that always you'll remember what history is. i think you probably will always be welcome as a peaceful nation, as a nation depends upon people not being peaceful or religious. whether it's they were being kind of just rama then raising it's mandatory ballistics. i had again to threaten me. its neighboring countries is especially disrupting countries like china, to which depend on to this study, surrender terrorists. i hope this will be the end of discussion about japan. someone he co um the joint statement after the announcement, it reaffirmed the us commitment to extended deterrence,

which includes nuclear weapons. that was once off limits for japan. how big a shift is that of the coverage of new current nuclear weapons over japan as being here in place for decades. there is nothing new about that. what's happened today is to make sure that the nuclear deterrence extended deterrence is going to be there even more in the future. now responding to mr. gallows. i'm curious allegation, japan made a surrender to the party of the allied powers to which chinese communist party was no part. and then the japanese prime minister made it rob, push them on in 1972 and t o and the, the prime minister went to china. chapman mo said, of course half jokingly,

that the japanese imperial immediate terry did a great service to the chinese communist party because the comment on party was the enemy number one for chinese communist party at the time. so you cannot have a one sided interpretation of history. now, if i may repeat, china is the only country in the human history that has grown its defense budget. a 335 times. no nation in the history of the month kind has done anything that i liked that in peace time. and chinese defense budget now is 5.4 times as large as japan's and china has not made everything transparent. so china's met and china may be spending even more than that. so i do wish that the voters, the dividing line between china and japan,

china in the philippines and china and indonesia and so on. stay and remain trunk. well, as mr. guys said about the line border beat, seen russia and china. the thing of the fact of the matter is a chinese, as they have been pushing envelope all directions to japan, to then cockers, to the philippines and to the vietnam and so on support. evan, it looked to me like you were reacting to a somewhat tumble. he cool was saying that did you want to jump in? yeah, i think it's, it's certainly a key point there, which is whatever regional security tension we now see. it is certainly not without cause, it is certainly not happening without a vacuum. i do think the china should not underestimate the concern and the perception among regional countries including japan, but also india also saw these asian states about china's lack of transparency in

terms of military spending, but also in terms of its own behavior in the region. and we see this as certainly in the philippines over the past year, but that's not an isolated incident with the philippines. china has its own issues with india, as in scott, wind from 20. yes, things have been relatively quiet with vietnam. but in the past, there were certainly a high tension and even conflict with vietnam. so i do think that the history of the region is certainly replete with great powers behaving in a way that creates the impressions of threats and concern. so i do not think it's particularly productive uh to sideline these concerns altogether and blame it entirely on the united states. because i do think one very important piece of concern for everyone in the region is agency and autonomy. and the need to define and defend its own interest in its own concerns. i do think we should not be

assigning a particular motive to other countries like the united states and others as if these regional countries do not have their own agency and autonomy. and evan, and we only have about a minute and a half left. but let me just ask you, is all of this going to allow the us to further strengthen relationships with other allies in the region? i think the allies part certainly yes, there is a momentum of building up and washington is certainly going to push that moment some part of their with south korea with i'll stay. ready with japan and yes with the philippines as well. but as i said earlier, that momentum is certainly now starting to move into difficult, so rain like no logical sharing cyber security information and intelligence sharing into operability. so darn a whole host of, of, of alliance management and issues that are far from being resolved. but the momentum is heading that way. the challenge for me is not on the line side,

cuz i think it's going very well for now. but whether or not the non part or the non alliance part of the security partnership, truth countries like single floor indonesia, vietnam, and others can build and have that same momentum. that's the part that i haven't really seen. it seems as if washington is basically saying, the train is moving, you either jump on or hop off, but we're moving ahead with our alliances in the future. so i do think this is creating a sense of uncertainty and concern among the rest of the reach and outside of us alliance. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guests, victor galton, while he kinda glitchy and evan likes money, and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just share a dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also turn the conversation on x r handle is at a j inside story for me, how much in room and a whole team here,

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