the ball of this bombing connect with our community and tap into conversations you will find elsewhere. young people are not looking for a hand, but they're not backed up by a system that supports the stream on out just the or the although i'm adrian said again, this is counting the costs from 0 to 0. your way to look at the world of business and economics, this week, fears of a recession of the us, of spot to volatility in global markets to that work against the democratic presidential candidates. or could come out of harris and went over voters on the economy. europe may have whether it's an energy crisis, but despite sanction in some european nations are still buying washington oil and

gas. we'll take a look at the wine and go in nigeria over a cost of living crisis. but of the president's economic reforms to blame. well, they help the economy and the unemployment in the u. s. is of its highest level in nearly 3 years of the world's largest economy. looks in danger of falling into recession. the data has spoke to global markets and called into question the economic record of the pipe and harris administration, vice president campbell harris, the democratic presidential candidate may now find it harder to pitch her economics plans. she's going to pay the full months to sway versus who trust her rival, republican donald trump. more on the economy. harris has kicked off her campaign, promising to strength from the middle class. i'm gonna come back and pledges, so can she when on the economy. we'll discuss that with our guest in just a few moments, but 1st, victoria k can be reports a democratic presidential candidate common. the harris has

a different vision for the future of the united states to that if the republican rivals donald trump, including on the economy together, we fight to build a nation where every person has affordable health care, where every worker is paid fairly. and where every senior can retire with dignity of all of this is to say building up, the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency. recent economic data suggest the us economy may be headed for recession. the unemployment rate res. last month to 4.3 percent. the highest level since 2021. wage gray slate. a manufacturing activity slumped under hera's bite and policies. we now have the highest unemployment rate in 3 years. just came out yesterday, steve and i was surprised. those numbers with terrible powers,

wednesday's election, you will quickly have a comma, la, economic grass. you're gonna have a crush terms in his running mate, ohio, send it to a j defense say that slicing for working class americans. they blame the bite and harris administration for supporting economic policies. that of course, too many hardships for too many americans for too long, for my rack to afghanistan from the financial crisis to the great recession, from open borders to stagnating wages. the people who govern this country have failed and failed again. it's, i mean you need is a full use of trump when to help working people and that's running. the support behind harris truck understands nothing about the auto industry. he understands nothing about auto workers. he's all talk. he loves to have a few talking points, but at the end of the day, when he had the chance to do something for all the workers, he did nothing. when he was president. nothing compelling suggest this will be a tight race, but move ages,

believe they'd be factual financially. if trump gets back into the white house, unless safety is of the u. s. recession a more likely to disadvantage harris, and that she can convince they to she's the best person to turn the economy around . victoria, item b, l, g 0, accounting, the cost. well, here's a look at what the economic data says. the unemployment rate rose to 4 points, 3 percent in july, the highest level since 2021. while the labor market cooled, more than expected. adding just 114000 jobs wage growth slowed with average hourly pay. rising 3.6 percent over the last 12 months, job growth was concentrated in just a handful of sectors, including health, social assistance, and construction. the days following fall short of the $175000.00 jobs full cost since stopped markets tumbling. all the economic data suggested that the economy was losing momentum. manufacturing activities felt when the 8 month flow in july,

boston, president joe biden says the economy is still making progress. it expanded at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the 2nd quarter of the year. and of course being the world's largest economy in terms of g d. p. a slow down to the us affects us all, wherever we live and walk. joining us not from london, but i'll have his chief executive officer micro. hi, but i'll go to have you with us. is the us headed for a recession? i think right now i would say no, but things could change right quickly. of course we sold that very full like the market reports that you mentioned. however, when you look at other data points, for example, we recently had what's called the i sam services that you set, which, which is the survey, all the companies and the services back to the us. and that actually increased over the previous month. also, when you look at personal income on a, on a broader basis that is not fully which is assigned that we're not in a recession. so right now, my, uh, you know,

my base cases. i don't think we all fit into a recession, say over the next 3 to 6 months, but things could change very quickly and we do have to be sensitive to the data that we're seeing unfold. so all voters in pre election posted right now, right? to say they trust from more on the economy than harris. well, in general, you tend to find the public, tends to support republicans on the economy. both the democrats has to be true across many decades, even before trump. so in general, that often tends to be the case in terms of whether a trample or the democrats could cause the recession. my senses neither side will necessarily be the crucial factor about tipping the us into recession. instead, it'll be much more about the dynamics of what the fed does. does the fed cut rates to help stabilize the economy? do companies talk back spending or notes and, and these things. i'll also be hands off what we seeing on the electrical side

right now. how's the said been too slow to cut interest rates? would you expect perhaps an emergency cup before september or at the very least a signal that they intend to cut in september as well. i think already they have at the last press conference at the recent fmc meeting, they did seem to suggest that they will talk in september the question now. so markets is whether that will be a $25.00 basis points. cox or 50 basis points caught, oh, what, as you say, it will be an emergency caught. my sense at the moment is that i think that they will not do an emergency taught. instead, i think they would like to be taught in september. and now how large that cut will be, i think, will depend more on the economic data, then say, what we're seeing in financial markets. because we have seen in recent years, at the coupling between the performance of se, se, markets and performance of the economy. so i think it's all about whether we see another week later, market reports in the coming few months. if we do,

then that increases the chances of a much larger cost in september. we'll talk some more about that in just a minute, but suspect to combine harris to do we know what her plans, economic policies will be, or it will just be a continuation of the, the, the by from the harris economic policies. it's a great question. and so far, she has a reset box about the economic policy, a pop from so general statements about trying to lift up the middle class and someone which our general token points that we see. but in such a specific policy, she's not here today said anything right now. she will likely also select those at the democratic national convention the dnc. um uh, but more generally if you look at the tone of the election year and so far, she seems to be focusing much more on the tone and culture and optimism rather than being too specific about policy. so it's not clear whether she

will necessarily off to create a clear policy agenda. so for now, it seems like that she could continue the by didn't policies that we've seen in early years and at this stage. but we don't really know whether she will get set up on that much, but if the numbers continue to go against, sort of unemployment continues to rise. that's. that's not going to be good for her . electro prospects is absolutely. um, you know, that does she, she has a, some of the challenge here because we, we've had a period of inflation which led to level approval ratings with democrats, by doing a, when he was the time to do it for the democrats, just as inflations folding. we thing a rise in unemployment, so seems like come all is has a big challenge here because she could have all due that they defeated inflation. but just as that's happening, unemployment is rising. so this will be big challenge. and so it passes for this reason that she may not necessarily focus as much on the economy instead,

she'll focus on other issues, whether it's female, reproductive rights, whether it's a democracy, whether it's the general principles of freedom and so on. so, so i think uh the economy will be a hot platform for her to run on the line. i'll be back with you in just a moment. so see is of a show up slow down at the american economy trigger, global stock market settle. equities have now for the most part, bounce back, but the market remains of all the time indices across the u. s. asia and europe fell sharply of affairs that the us federal reserve had been too slow to cut interest rates and respond to science of a weakening economy jeopardy. stocks were hit by the largest losses, a rates of interest rates. hypo red one in japan is also believed to have played a role in that. below is the stock market volatility set to continue. i think at this stage, one common rule it out. we have seen very weeks removes of the last week. also. i

typically, when you see such large moves, they do continue for some period a had that we may not necessarily see as large moves as we've seen over the past week. one challenge we have right now is we all in the, in the summer months of the northern hemisphere where you tend to see that there's less active traders and investors in the market, which tends to result in outsides, moves in market. so that's also exacerbating a lot of the moves we're seeing at the moment. or i've, uh, we have seen some bubbles before me in market. so for example, we've had a many a bubble in the us. we've also had a municipal japan bubble in indicate and also the un terry trade and all of these bubbles are unwinding at the moment. and it's hard to know exactly when those bubble, the posting of best bubbles will end. uh, but uh, you know, we do think that we, you know, we're not out of woods yet. the law is always great to talk to your account with the cost manufacturing day for being with us. thank you. the nobel peace prize

laureates. mohammed unice has been chosen to lead bangladesh interim governing the dental elections are held. the economist on the bank is the choice of student protest as to forced private associate casino to resign and flee the country known as the bank because of the pool. unice has been credited with lifting millions of people out of policy will discuss what his appointment means to the nation and the future. addition of counting the cost. rushes oil is still flowing into the european union. the train wants to limit pass displaced sanctions on russian energy company lou coil forcing it to stop delivering oil through a pipeline that causes it's territory to the few european nations that are still buying it. hungary, slovakia and the check republic were granted an exception to an eob panel. russian oil imports following moscow's invasion of ukraine in 2022. the hun, gary, and us look back in government. say that keeps move, puts the energy security risk of asked a european commission to intervene,

but the commission is offering them to find alternatives to russian energy supply as well. the 3 countries receive crude oil via the bruce, the pipeline which stops in russia and then splits into the northern line. one is through the roof to poland and germany. the southern line runs through ukraine refineries. in slovakia, hungary and the czech republic, it's remained operational through more than 2 years of war. together the countries imported nearly $3000000000.00 worth of oil from russia. in the 1st 6 months of this year, hungary relies on russia for around 70 percent of its oil imports, new coil accounts for hoff that figure out front of us. the victor opened a long time pushing ally has rejected. the use proposal to import oil via a pipeline in croatia. he says bask would be too expensive. let's say that hunger is oil imports dropped by a sudden july compared to the previous month following ukraine decision to bind

russian oil passing through its territory. but the uses the by the hungary, slovakia, all the czech republic face and immediate risk to supplies. joining us not from brussels histories of fallen cheese, the director of the center for russia, europe and asia studies at a city a fellow at the chicago council on global affairs. good to have you with us on the account you the cost of these sanctions are they actually going to affect the amount of oil but gets to these countries that say that they need it so much? well, 2 points here. first of all there's some analysts have been pointing out that it's not really you credit that's blocking this right now. it's trans nest that it's not sending the crude oil. so that's one aspect of this. and the other is that both to hungry and slovakia have had 2 years to get their act together to diversify and they haven't in fact hungry has more to increase their reliance on russian energy

by 50 percent. so this wrinkles the european commission, all the other member states, was painful, but they managed to do it, but hungry and so like you have not done that. in fact, hungry is trying to use the 2014 agreement free trade agreement between ukraine and the u. as a way to get out of jail. it's hard for you in order to to extend the car about even further. so every other country has managed to improve their energy diversification away from russia, but hungry is actually increased by 50 percent of the question has to be why other than the alternative supplies available. tom green is really hungry, is landlocked, and uh they, the premiums carefully chose look oil because that is weird, a substantial amount of the he a on gary and source their energy. there are some workarounds. people are looking at maybe to go through conflicts, dawn, or come up with

a different way to transmit the energy through ukraine, which i think during the war might be difficult to do. but as the previous episode had mentioned, that croatia has offered to send energy to hungry through the address of pipeline from croatia and the ford minister peters here to has said this is too costly. but of course, crazy would charge transit fees that are less than what russia is charging. and the other issue is that the refineries in hungry, it's a state owned company, m a well, they're, they're organized to only refine the heavy urals crude that come through there. so it would be costly for them to reset the refineries now and will, is making a lot of money. and so the gearing policy on this is to have wouldn't fall taxes. so they're not a so the state on the company is actually feeling the covers of hungry of the, or by government. but they don't have any money to actually improve the refinery so

that it could actually refine other crude. so this is kind of a bad policy creation by the, or by government. it's very short term thinking. what about russia? does any of this actually hot russia or has it now found alternative bios, but it's oil as well. oil is fungible. so the, the agreement for the, you was to have a price cap. and of course, uh, once you come up with these types of, uh, rules and regulations, everyone looks for a way to get around them. so russia has created a great leads of, so companies, uh, these ships that are very kind of dodgy, that people don't want to use anymore, and they operate in a gray zone. they are breaking sanctions. but india has substantially increase their purchases of russian crude. for example, before the war and ukraine was about one percent of their energy mix, now it's at 20 percent. so they've really increased it substantially. china has

also increased of buying russian energy. so the other, a substantial discount. so this is way for russia to keep their friends close. and also, since oil gets on the market, no matter what some indian diplomats have said, but we're really helping you europe because we're actually buying rushing crude and then they refine it and then they send it back to europe. so it keeps the price of oil a reasonable around the world. this is the indian narrative. never the less. there is some drilling strains in what's happening with india and china. of course, one of our gas has europe successfully managed to weed itself all fresh and gas? i guess there's 2 ways. so i guess coming into europe, which was not the sanctions. nevertheless, all the member states had a bit of a shock when, when russia turned off, the tap that never happened during soviet period. and so they realized they needed

to diversify and diversify rapidly to avoid any more price stocks. so they have increase their storage capacity. and it's amazing how award can focus people's minds. germany was pretty much a huge, impressive example. they had been talking about it, but then they actually got it done so quickly. the built l. n g of floating terminals, and many of the much of the gas is russian l. n g. but l n g liquefied natural gas is an international market. so that just prevents the ability of russia to turn off the top unexpectedly so they can buy from katara, they can buy from russia, they can buy from the us. they have multiple buyers including norway as well. so this increases their energy security. really good stores here through so many effective date for being with us on counting the cost. thank you. nearly 40 percent of nigerians live in extreme policy inflation, which is that a 2080

a high means with many of them can't afford to buy food. many nigerians blame president bullets a new boys, economic reforms for their living conditions. they've taken to the streets to protest against his policies. despite government attempts to prevent them to do both sides of the measures which include the valuing the currency of removing fuel subsidies, necessary to revive the economy of address reports from level jo. like most nigeria is the jealous work multiple jobs to keep up with nigeria as rump and inflation. yep. they say it's not enough to meet the needs of a family of 4. if then a 5000 they're cool. cool. can you for the whole d? o, probably part of the class, probably for a p d there about these d. it's no longer be like that because jesse killed me to date is that team 5000 there are many i did in families can't afford even that.

what august? $1000.00 skip to the streets to protest against the rising cost of living in africa's most populous country. they demand the reversal of government economic reform policies that have been in place since last year. the policies that they have carried out in the last one year and 3 months while i'm not to administration for i used it for most of my g. s foot by 133000000 my jazz are leaving what some of the most of the mission of the 10 day protest elect, routine. awesome. and then you can always shut down in ready state. i had of the process, the government, and i was a suspension of duty, or somebody imported for items could also release graves to help the most vulnerable. and i did as my purchase organizer say, these bring on the temper or the one state subsidy for petroleum to be reinstated,

the removal of which they say to good run point inflation. that demand they say, you know, negotiate. now do you guys like with that to them? we have movies into stuff, off of weights. so the subsidy that was removed showed vertical and you can put on your flip, right? once pumped down, got to got it. now i did, as president said, this po subsidy was not sustainable. the economies say the damage inflicted upon the kind of you by days of funding part is passive, but the reforms are necessary for growing. i believe this policy is going to walk. i believe we should give them more time and i believe is going to benefit all of us . if we give more time, then i didn't press dentist code for dialogue, but purchased organize as one that unless they keep the man to admit, that will continue to be out on the street. which could be more pain and loss for an already practice. poverty please. i'll just do that for counting. the cost of

joining us not from london is rosie or com, who is the managing director and chief economist of africa and middle east global research at spend a chance at the bank. good to have you with us on counting the cost again. just how bad is the economic situation in by jerry yet right now on off the protest is to moans legitimate. well, there are 2 things to this. no one would doubt that with food inflation above 40 percent here and yeah, inflation itself, headline inflation as a multi year high, the people are going through a great deal if economic difficulty. however, it would be very fluid to pin points, responsibility for the current situation. just to the re phones or to pinpoint that on the reforms that were meant to improve the situation. nigeria has in fact, in recent months, reinstated to the feel subsidy. despite the bold intentions to remove it entirely

up the outset, the feel subsidy is most affordable. that has been fx liberalization. this was something that many, many nigerians had called full prior to the elections of loft. yeah. of course it takes a while to stabilize everything. and it's the full out from those initial reforms that protest does. some protesters have been demonstrating against, but as was mentioned earlier in the program, the reforms are aimed at improving the situation. the reforms, the aimed at stabilizing the economy and stabilizing the price levels. the difficulty is that they do take some time to have more effect, but we'll try to boost policies. actually work all the white policies from nigeria . okay. short term paying for long term gain, but are they going to walk? there is absolutely no question. that's a great consensus amongst economists,

but these policies are much needed in nigeria. the feel subsidy as it used to exist the fuel subsidy that's has crept backend simply on affordable in the country. what even today, over 60 percent of the revenue collected by the federal government expense and that's it is foreign exchange liberalization, has helped to alleviate the shortage of foreign exchange over time. this is something that should lend itself to price stability. it has been something of a bumpy wiley to nigeria simply because there was so much that had gone wrong with policy prior to the enact minutes of these reforms. but there are very few economists out there if anyone who would say there is a way forward for nigeria with the absence of these reforms. it is simply not a choice facing by the economy. very briefly, a terrible says,

but he's heard the protest is loud and clear. but what's he going to do about it? do you, do you expect them to falter? i mean, or is he can, is going to stay from to so the government has already instituted a plan to deal with food and security. there are plans for governments to get involved alongside the private sector and the importation of food, the lowering of terrace removal of some import tariffs. some food items will no doubt help and we should stop to see the impacts of that over the coming weeks. already there were signs that inflation is no longer rising at the same monthly paces we had seen earlier in the year. and those a lot less if the difference between the official and the power level exchange rates. now, in effect, what we've seen in the recent pulse to stabilize ation of the exchange rate. so the show thompson is these reforms all working, but it's probably not happening soon. enough to make

a difference to the grades of population, press him great to talk to you again. i'm counting the cost. thanks for being with us. to a judge in the us as well that google broke empty trust laws to illegally crush competition and maintain a monopoly of online such the long lock decision marks. the 1st major success for us, so far as he's taking a look at the dominance of big tech, google's parent company, alphabet. the said that it's popularity stems from the overwhelming desire of consumers to use its search engine. that's a show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything you've saved, get in touch, i'm a fan to get an on x, please use the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost out of 0 dot net as an email address, as always, us plenty more. few on lineup, elder 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page though, you'll find individual reports, links added type programs for you to capture. but that's it for this edition of

counting the cost i made for you instead of going from the team here though. huh. thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is the the latest news as it breaks, thousands of people lining up to see the 1st harris waltz campaign events and men even tell us they're excited to be here with detailed coverage. almost every day families come to the city more cheery to look for loved one from around the world. a demonstration by people in the phones on my side and say through 5th is actually being larger than the flood out. expect to fly far right for testers. in a sense of belonging, we always look for ways to be together. and the everyday heroes keeping communities together is tough. the laptop is transforming the day in the

1st part of the series of just 0 visits is of a lot. but in mexico city, where the locals are turning on a toys municipality to an urban utopia, a sense of community on this jersey to the states that even come in as an international inside corruption, excellence award, denominator here on now.

the a real emphasis very sykes on does at least 42 people are killed and many more inches across the strip. the more about this, and this is obviously a lot from don't have also coming up the us, why times ones in a run back to attack on israel could come this week following the assassination of how much space as well. i'm yeah, into around 36 house in the european union as emergency services bottle wildfires. the athens.