the the . ringback the some, all in the be a spill over into the region. a military mobilization by world kelly for half to the south west is rising alarm and neighboring countries. what's behind this, moving to think leave on the tall region. and what does it mean for war? total libya, this is inside story, the color that on chains phase libya was one of the nations that was part of the so

called arab spring. but since the revolution toppled, long time needed one look at that. feet and 2011. the country has no need a peace nor political stability. libby is divided between 2 governments and 2 prime ministers. the u. n. recognize government is based in triple 8. it's rival administration and the eastern city of been gauzy backs the world for the for hafta . his forces recently mobilized any of the boat without jerry up and people in libya, a voicing fee is over a ton to civil war. ready so what's next for libya? i'm kind of the divided nation ever be reunited and what was an increase in tensions mean for the regions? we'll discuss all of this with a panel of guessing just a moment. but 1st, this report from victoria gate and b forces loyal to libya will load heavily for half an hour at the boat with neighboring algeria. this video hasn't been independently verified, but old jerry a says it's concerned about military activity in libya, south west, and she, wherever, if region, this comes at

a time of increased tension across libya. look up that looks as if a rival malicious enough, calm down and then not satisfied with a conciliatory solution. they'll be other decisions regarding them. what's going on every day they cause trouble on the streets. every day people are terrorized people's lives and not a game that will be other measures against them with have to be harsh. maybe has stuff to continue with some rest and be able to throw more more good jeffrey in 2011 and they to back to uprising the country has been divided between 2 competing governments since 2014 view and recognize government and national unity is headed by prime minister up to how much algebra eva, it's based in tripoli, in the west arrival administration in the east is backed by have to the 2 administrations compete for power through shifting alliances with all groups on the ground. in 2019 half those forces launched in the soul to him, tripoli,

but it failed, and the warring sides agree to cease by a year later. by the boss, a recent surgeon violence underlines the countries in stability. many governments in the region and beyond the deeply concerned about the unrest over the past 2 months. the situation, libya has deteriorated quite rapidly in terms of political, economic and security. stability, unilateral acts by libyan political, military and security actors have increased tension, further entrenched institutional and political divisions and complicated efforts for a negotiated solution. half those forces are backed by russia, the u. a. e and egypt there will say, well, results, most of libya as oil fields are in the east and a half dollars control. this means the government in tripoli is console for a major source of income. libyans have suffered use of instability, chaos and competing governments. now they see increase tensions, could lead to more fighting that may have far reaching consequences beyond libya as

bold as victoria gates and b l g 0 for inside story. well, let's discuss all of this now in detail with august. so a, joining us in this stumble on us l. demonte is the founder and director of the static institute, the 1st public policy think tank in libya and touch one and know morocco last and how do i have is a strategic affairs analyst, an american senate to and the purpose of the call. the rahman is an independent consultant who focuses on security north africa, and this a hail and his co olsa of the politics of algeria. welcome to all of you and thank you for joining us. on the inside story, i'd like to look at the specifics of what's been going on in the southern borders of libya in a moment. but 1st, let's just take stock of exactly where we are in libya. i was in libya in 2011 when good taffy was over the throne and killed i reported on both those events and

surprises me at the time. i thought it'd be quite easy to united country that's only a population of 7000000 people in is so rich. yeah, the country is to completely divide it. they never had elections on us. why? well, i think you're correct. i think main menu, it has made the same assumption in 2011. and i think, you know, the winner that story is coming out of libya, but libya was really a model for the region. it was not just the view that has gone into revolution, but it was clearly a model for other countries that are also aspiring to, to transition into the right model, their own democratic model, with their own cultural and political baggage. but i think the 1st 2 years of libya were not so valid. we had an we didn't have elections and it keeps on finance. in the past elections, we had a problem when we had an electric government. and then we had this research as of 2014 where the country did split, as you mentioned, between east and west,

between local militias and then it has become this playing field for global competing powers. it'd be, it's kind of this, this great game. now that's being the context over the last 10 years. we've also seen the un try to mend those divides either the thing they've been planning a strong enough pro because us come across 2 different periods. we had a period of, of regional intervention where we sold lots of each of the metadata roads science to come in and push against the push for what it was kind of off the top cushion. 2, tripoli, 1st in 2014. then again in 2019. but he was joining this fund by russia, and that has created this major geo political iron curtain that has natural and us attention perhaps to lights, but really libya today is no longer a question of whether or not the local competing forces can just verify some of the things to attempt at doing that in 2014, 20192020. but we've also not good amend the rifts have international players that have transformed libya into that kind of proxy fits or so that's really the kind of

the problems in 2011. there was a question of what 7000000 people in libya may have thought about the future today . the southern many invoices are almost tragic and relevant to those events because the real decisions are being made far away from tripoli. and because they a lesson, do you kind of that pointed, criticizing, perhaps the international community? this was a very important issue, particularly for the e. you, remember, germany was heading a political process, has much of the international community lost interest in the peer. why do i think that has been a lot of interest in libby and that has to be like a different kinds of a time. so i mean from united nations, from, you know, in the audience from, on some countries in north africa in bring in like the different boxes together. murdoch has played a very major role in bringing them in skipped out to morocco for several times. that has been agreements and those kinds of agreements signed by the different

parties. but when he gets to renamed, he mentioned those kinds of agreements then that there is a problem or point to hold the elections, how to organize them in the maturity of things, but also the interference of different kinds of players. and i agree that the libya has been now like this stage for proxy. the waters of influence between different kinds of players interfered in libya, has prevented that kind of from bringing together different spots. he's like over what, what comes to us that the future will flip the office. so it's very unfortunate that that, that has been on the time it's for different kinds of parties to do a work together to have like a vision of what lived it shouldn't be in the future. how to hold elections, how to get away from the division within living. yeah, but i think there are internal factors that mean people buying for power with a live. yeah. but also i think that also the international influences from different kinds of layers. and i think that's the unfortunate thing that is

happening over now is that the live? yeah, is no longer like only the domestic layers that are really like having different types of discuss on what to move and how to move. but also like the other, the, the forces which use the libya as a gateway to other kinds of influences whether we didn't north africa within, within, beside. and we're going to talk about that. but that mean that that's the kind of side situation about about to be a nowadays. okay. i've, they've caught a, i'm, we say libya divided into 2. that's a bit. simplicity, isn't it? there are numerous players and boast hubs of libya and all sorts of institutions. and figures, claiming legitimacy and authority, even though many were never elected. many of the mandates that should have expired, and then they should have expired and ages ago about them. yeah, we think our funds, maybe i'll see why they might to, into 2 different i and it is, but i see on the line the mental issues there are different plays that drives down

um, all sorts of people and groups that have different interests in libya. so this makes it very um, complicated and complex for libya to sit around the table and how the pool today or need to um, to have face and move forward for them for the country. okay, on us, let's move on to the east of libya and the strong man that the rule of thumb call him holly, for half stuff. he would call himself field marshal after he gave himself that title. he says he headed the libyan national law. me. that's a militia, not an actual law. me based in the east of the country. just tell us about him. because in 2019 he marched on tripoli. he fails. he looked to meet with him in the i to the not think even with the time would you agree some of his back because we are beginning to distance themselves from him. pick up

a story that what's happened since that seems to be a resurgence. i think it's a 3 think story and i think when you think of libya's longest spending figures, you don't have to look far. you find pretty popular has not only been there for the last several years. he's been there for over half a century. he was with mom, the doctor when the through tenure, theresa and 1969, when he has been involved in every single qu, attempt for actual could be a sense that dates searching of the site over 55 years. now. what is the fascinating thing about off there, i think is that he is just, you know, resolute. so he's resilience. now when you try to think of his power base, many people will say, well it's not legit. national armies that self styled army that he's created. it's the fact that he's got these relationships with local tribes. the guest, as mentioned, the reality today is that he could not do any of those acts that he has done. and this revival game and recycling that he's been able to do not have any for the last

5 years. but for the last 55 years, if it wasn't for the critical international support that he's given. and that's where the what can't smell. number one, he's been given arms, been violation of that un arms and burger that has been there since you are there in 2011, james, number one, that's the real big question. how do you stop somebody fighting when we keep giving them moms and you don't sanction them? and so you mentioned those, you mentioned, and that's to interrupt me that you mentioned that international support. we're not going to be like here. cool them out. who all the countries who are supporting and have the sure in the united. i remember it says 2014 egypt since 2014 russia since 20. 15. 16. 17. but really been entirely with all the group mercenaries since 2019. but let me just be more even even more direct. if he doesn't just have those weapons that they were given to him in 2014, he has asked, strikes dry and strikes him on a flight to the last minute to pass. now the enemy,

but if he doesn't have them feel fine until the last message, the syrian mercenaries, emerald, to try and mercenaries that came from so that a russian messenger is that the list is endless. chevy and most news that have come on over the last 2 years. if you're willing to fight after is willing to pay you for his beckers are willing to be, but i still know, you know, other actors have done that in libya as well. they also use messengers, they've also got weapons move violated the arms and by giving the west of libya, what is critical to after support is that it has the diplomatic shielding not only from russia, which has a un security council vote. but if you get back to april 2019, when he lost the defensive of the 1st joint meeting and wrote the us threatened to veto any resolution that would criticize i was actually after this is crazy. you were living in a while and that price you crime, that seems to be that russia and the us don't get along. why did they get along when it comes to the question to pester? because he still is visited by the us intelligence chief or the chief bill barnes.

and the last year he frequently meets with the us um boss of the system on the also holds us citizenship after his 20 years unlikely. virginia, where he will say moonlighted as i c, i s a, a c i as it from the late eighty's. this is one of the most peculiar individuals in global politics. not, i mean, it could be in politics. but what size proximate thing about him is not only that he's been recycled and reinvented over several decades. but he's also brought c for 2 players that don't get along in any playground, the us and russia, it was donald trump. the on the 4th of april 2019, gave the green lights to have to, to attack when he was using russian messengers and east of libya. that sounds a little bit like a book written for me because this is where the most the question of libya. it's a study in western contradiction. we often have today about the war and goals and how about the study and then contradictions. because the russians are invited anytime that the address, or whether it's ro, invades daughter, is defending himself. but you never so you tell us,

unless you're on the same table, or on the same playbook, well actually backing the same individual, all be in different ways. but half there is not going, and i think one of the history has been what some people are going to scratch that helps them make sense of that adult caught up. we'll talk about libby as neighboring countries, but half does influence the moment, extends beyond the immediate neighborhood of wide claims, many places that half dogs being supplying weapons and fuel to the rapids support forces in saddam's civil yeah, that news on that one. so how far is a my, is you very much and predictable because someone who has been has, as it has been underlined by will guess and supported by different actors such as russia area near say the and yet, but more than that,

he's very unpredictable. i'm not, don't think that i have taught would want to or would yeah, would want to uh, to have a national vision for his country. i think about think he's be coming and then you're for the whole region you mation. so don, but we can also mentions that child and we can also mation news, your model, e o r g here. so, so in that sense, i think about 10 half kinase, someone who's getting too much support from more support than he deserves. and we in the course kind of course questions that we have yet to see for the entire region to last and let's talk particularly we talked about countries that are friendly with half the supporting half the allied with asked, half done. but let's stop, particularly about russia and what was called the wagner group. now sort of more on the russian control, i see reports of thousands of tons of military equipment being shipped by russia from talk to us in syria to the libyan port, up to brook,

including ahmed personnel account results. henry unlock it, launches. what do you think russia is? one thing to do here is it to play a major role in libya, or is it to play a major role be on libya going further south into africa? or why say, i think last saw has as objective. i mean policy in this sense, the rest. so once i have a foothold in libya and we know that the mom of the deputy has very so i'd be like, has historically relations with the rush. what it was provided that was provided with the documents from russia and all of a sudden so rush stuff was very me like, was not happy with the fact that he was going to lose libya after mom. not a good enough, he's gone. but i mean, on the other hand, i think that's how that was a play very important role in the opening, if you like, according to your, from southwest olivia, all the way to the governor for forgiveness in this sense that it involves

countries like malia news and then go all the way to, to, to the gulf of dean. and that's very important for russ site in the sense that dividing a group and the minutes of supports that it gives us. so different kinds of countries is one way for russia to have like very important influence, especially at the moment when, as it's additional uh, powers that have been very influential in the southern region like france have been seen. i mean, different, different, different kinds of problems, especially in that, in the book, you know, for us. so in that money and these are, and i think russia is moving in, is moving in with the wagner group. i mean, of course it has its own problems like recently in molly, but it rushed that he's very adamant about the fact that he needs to have like really uh, involvement in, in, in, in the side regions. very important use search, easy plates for restaurants and the, the, the, the, the provision of the middle,

it's always supports logistics and supports and material resources and diplomatic cover. and also the existence of dividing the group in different places makes this possible and then have to use, uh is, is providing that kind of possibility for russia to be there of whether it's dean. so v as in, in, in so done in the, in charge a but also the most recent to the mobilization across, i mean like a long, the border with the jew in southwest olivia. and for a lot of people, i mean that's the big it any feel like of the opening of that kind of corny door, which is very important for, for russian interests and juice, which is your interest adult caught up less than that. i mentioned that russia has had some problems. russia is now directly supporting those countries in the so hail that had crews. and over through the previous government's new sha molly became the fast. so in the molly, at the end of july, there was an attack by to our like,

forces the, a big defeat for russia. some report say 20 russians killed 10 molly and soldiers killed. do you think russia is all skiing? have to to do this because it is, it's in trouble that it needs this resupply route. well, the roach and me well, what are i, cheryl? is it alice king, have that to do with that or not? it's really difficult to say, but for one uh, for one thing, for sure. how start getting involved. and it's not how it would be a tremendous mistake for the entire region. how the hostile and the other country, in addition to those are not over the roles such as russia involved in molly or in nature would simply discover lies even more those countries then that are on right now. so i don't thing about time. rush child should have

a st call from getting health tight involved in this and in this region we've already so 10 years ago, the consequences of the over the photo phoebe and they're all in there. the, the stories ation of libya and the consequences and in a night in modeling. so having all the forces such as the house, those forces made new forces involved in money and perhaps even more in the of the neighboring countries, such as of putting a fossil on nature would simply for the are great the, the current uh, jewel, political and security situation in the country and then the entire entire on the side of the region on us. do you think that half is only in the south of libya and operating in these new areas because he's helping the russians or do you think he sees benefit in it? for himself, i've seen some suggestions. maybe he wants to see saddam is,

which is that a racist town, which is in libya but close to the border with out you area and tennessee a and then maybe a spring board. he's failed in the past, but a spring bull then to take tripoli. yeah, i mean, you're completely right. i'm not deliberately solution. this is i'm, we've seen this play out before now ahead of the war. and so the on, there was a kind of off the who some his son as a dig to, to saddam, to, to whisper in the year of, of how much the, that of the are assess. and tell him and warn him that his advisors are moving against them. that was later revealed a couple of months later. i had a vis at von some what was happening. the money. very recently we've seen helped us . i'm just such as other son. so tom, now the head of his own land forces as a mystery across the highway use most recently and looking up also meeting with the new military hunter as well. now we've seen matlab before. it's not covered

sentence but what, what was revealed and the end, the end of july and what you spoke about earlier on the sho, in terms of what was happening with the russian mercenaries and the 20th. so they were killed. this is most, that's an, in my view, securing a language for that perhaps potential retreats of such as the money. but that would also bring up the question of algeria and it's on a position that was with money and with russia not only with popular but certainly looking towards is what have the result. and there's precedence for that as well. in january and february of 20192 months ahead of his move on tripoli headed off to move this forces into such a new battery, other southern cities that are near the border region without your, your it's and his yeah themselves. so there is a 1000 historical presidents with this. there was also other 2 incidences, products agree planning a in libya there was a both of these sliced, they cancel one of the arrival upon them and so sits in the west. i've lived here that boats took place only in the last 10 days that but it was disputed and there

was a potential pretext for a minute tree bush and a political change them on typically. and i think that's what have to is really kind of adapt using this is their own, actual incidences popular likes to kill multiple buds with one stone. okay. out they'll cut out. i'd like to bring you in on. we've mentioned algeria several times how, what rate is out g a rear? it has a more about a 1000 kilometer buddha with libya, it is one of the strongest millet trees in the north african region of egypt. how worried would they be about events? very much word very much war is very much concerned with what is happening. let's not forget about the is surrounded by the countries um when that in the instability we're talking about maybe of oh so nation we need to ration a large week or the nation news year and modeling. so yeah,

having troops on it's border is something that takes off our great concern for our jr. i cigarette, as i said, it's run surrounded by other countries on the way our system run in by and organized crime such as drug trafficking and and um with molly news. yeah, that is organized crime with drug traffic a with uh, either go uh migration. so all of this makes the allergy uh, very worried about what's happening. it has been focused for years now on the, on it's some solid and border with the money and to a lesser extent, to, to a new share, but not with then helped us troops on the border. we don't hear, it makes it even more complex and communicated from a a security perspective. so yeah. okay. let me, let me bring your last less than now. um, everyone here in this discussion has a outline,

things that sound very well reading for libya and for the region. yet if you were to watch most television news channels, no one is talking about this. what should be the message for the international community, particularly you and the us, should the warning lights now be flashing? i think the bullets can process needs to go on. and the because half those boxes are far reaching implications for region security. and the presence of foreign powers has turned the conflicts into proxy bonuses. but i think the, the, the interests community like europe in union, i think the u. n. united states. but i think with also with other players like the church and the other countries need to push towards like the political process. the political process is something that needs to happen and i think we need to but, but a on. so i think that has been word the top start also is concerned about the fact that he's not getting his. busy off oil that has been taught that maybe that can happen. and also there is, but it's that other times from,

from the governments in the, in west and libya, the outgoing top like talk soon are in order to bring in everyone. and then we will respond to different kinds of needs. i think that's very good news in the sense that the political process is but still possible and dialogue as soon as possible. but i think what, what needs to happen is for the, for the, for the implementation of the political uh, road map. because that's the most important. they got into the nice the elections and have a share of power between the different kinds of well ok, thank you very much science dual august. last and how that on us l. kemati. abdul. called the rom, and you can see this payment program again, any time to watch any of our other shows. all of them are available on demand it down to 0. don't. com. if you have views on the situation in libya, i'm the why the region post the one on facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story, or on x, the form of twitter. you'll find this as a inside story for most of us here in which is a headquarters and go help please stay safe on james face. and i'll see you back

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