to the hutus that exactly the same thing about maybe food in 1990 israel has committed a numerous of all crimes. since that i'm also friends on the type of stuff. i'm fairly sure that'd be fine. the toward itself is not a well fine head to head on, out to 0 with some all in to be a spill over into the region. a military mobilization by world kelly for half this with the south west, is raising alarm and neighboring countries. what's behind this move and i think leave all the time region. i'm what does it mean for war? told me that the, this is inside story, the color that on james bays, libya was one of the nations that was part of the so called arab spring. but since the revolution toppled, long time need a warm, a good that feet in 2011. the country has no need

a peace nor political stability. libby is divided between 2 governments and 2 prime ministers. the un recognize government is based in triple 8. it's rival administration in the eastern city of been gauzy backs the little heavy for hafta. his forces of recently mobilized the of the boat without jerry up and people in libya of voicing fee is over a ton to civil war. ready so what's next? olivia? i'm kind of a divided nation and will be reunited and what was an increase in tensions mean for the regions? we'll discuss all of this with a panel of guessing just a moment. but 1st, this report from victoria, gate and b, of forces loyal to libya will load heavily for half dar at the buddha with neighboring algeria. this video hasn't been independently verified, but al jerry a says it's concerned about military activity in libya, south west and she, wherever, if region, this comes at a time of increased tension across libya. look, i'm kind of kind of if a rival malicious or not calm down and then not satisfied with a conciliatory solution,

they'll be other decisions regarding them. what's going on every day that cause trouble on the streets? every day people are terrorized people's lives and not a game that will be other measures against them will have to be harsh. maybe has stuff to continue with the rest and be able to throw more more good jeffrey in 2011 . and then they to backed uprising. the country has been divided between 2 competing governments since 2014 view and recognize government and national unity is headed by prime minister. up to how much algebra eva. it's based in tripoli, in the west arrival administration in the east is backed by have to the to administration is compete for power through shifting alliances with on the groups on the ground. in 2019 half those forces launched an assault on tripoli. but it failed, and the warring sides agreed to cease by a year later. bought a recent surgeon violence on the lines, the countries in stability. many governments in the region and beyond the degree

concerned about the unrest over the past 2 months. the situation, libya has deteriorated quite rapidly in terms of political, economic and security. stability, unilateral acts by libyan political, military and security actors have increased tension, further entrenched institutional and political divisions and complicated efforts for negotiated solutions. half those forces are backed by russia, the u. a. e and egypt there will say, well, results based of libya as oil fields are in the east and a half dollars control. this means the government in tripoli is console for a major source of income. 1 libyans have suffered use of instability, chaos and competing governments. now they see increase tensions, could lead to more fighting that may have far reaching consequences beyond libya as bold as victoria gates and b l g 0 for the inside story.

well, let's discuss all of this now in detail with a gas. so a, joining us in this stumble on us l. jermanti is the founder and director of the static institute. the 1st public policy think tank and libya and pet wanting to know morocco. less than how do i have is a strategic affairs analyst, an american senate to and the purpose of the call to of the rahman is an independent consultant who focuses on security north africa and this a hail, and this co olsa of the politics of algeria. welcome to all of you and thank you for joining us. on the inside story, i'd like to look at the specifics of what's been going on in the southern borders of libya in a moment. but 1st, let's just take stock of exactly where we are in libya. i was in libya in 2011 when good taffy was over thrown and killed. i reported on both those events and surprises me at the time. i thought it'd be quite easy to united country that's only a population of 7000000 people in the so rich. yeah,

the country is to completely divide it. they never had elections. and that's why well, i think you're correct, correct. made. many of us made the same assumption in 2011. and i think you know, that when a bad story is coming out of libya and lydia was really a model for the region, it was not just the view that had gone into revolution. but it was clearly a model for other countries that are also aspiring to, to transition into the right model, their own democratic model, with their own cultural and political baggage. but i think the 1st 2 years of libya were not so bad that we had an we didn't have elections and it keeps on finance. in the past elections, we had a problem when we had an electric government. and then we had this research as of 2014, where the country did split, as you mentioned, is between east and west, between la permissions and then it has become this playing field for global computing. power has to be, it's kind of, this is great game. now that's being the context of,

of the last 10 years. we've also seen the un try to mend those divides either the thing they've been planning a strong enough pro because us come across to different periods. we had a period of a regional intervention where we saw lots of each. that's pretty much it. i remember it's science to come in and push against the push for what it was kind of off the top cushion to tripoli 1st in 2014. then again in 2019, but he was joining this time by russia, and that has created this major geo political iron curtain that has natural and us attention perhaps to lights. but really libya today is no longer a question of whether or not the local competing forces can just verify some of the things to attempt at doing that in 2014, 20192020. but we've also not good amend the rifts international players that have transformed livia into that kind of proxy fits or so that's really the kind of the problems of 2011. there was a question of what 7000000 people and libya may have thought about the future.

today, as i said, are many invoices are almost tragic and relevant to those events because the real decisions are being made far away from tripoli. and because they a lesson, do you echo that pointed, criticizing, perhaps the international community? this was a very important issue, particularly for the e. you, remember, germany was heading a political process, has much of the international community lost interest in the peer. why do i think that has been a lot of interest in libby and that has to be like in different kinds of a time, something from united nations, from european unions, from on. so countries in north africa in bring in like the different boxes together, americans play the very major road in bringing that means to get out to morocco for several times. that has been agreements and those kinds of agreements assigned by the different parties. but when he gets to renamed, you mentioned those kinds of agreements then that there is a problem or point to hold the elections. how to organize that. i'm in the maturity

of things, but also the interference of different kinds of players. i agree that the libya has to be now like this stage for proxy, the waters of influence between different kinds of players interfering the libya has prevented that kind of bringing together different parties like over what, what comes to us that the future of olivia. so it's very unfortunate that that, that has been on the time for different kinds of parties to do a work together to have like a vision of what lived it shouldn't be in the future. how to hold elections, how to get away from the division within live. yeah, but i think there are internal factors. i mean people vying for power with the libya, but also i think that also the international influences from different kinds of layers. and i think that's the unfortunate thing that is happening over now is that the live? yeah, is no longer like only the domestic layers that are really like having different

types of discuss on what to move and how to move. but also like the other, the, the forces which use the libya as a gateway to other kinds of influences whether we didn't north africa within, within the cycle. and we're going to talk about that. but that mean that, that's the kind of sad situation about about to be a nowadays. okay. i've, they've caught a, i'm, we say libya divided into 2. that's a bit. simplicity isn't it? there are numerous players in both hobbs of libya and all sorts of institutions. and figures, claiming legitimacy and authority, even though many were never elected. many of the mandates that should have expired, and then they should have expired and ages ago about them. yeah, we think our funds maybe as divide, they might to, into 2 different i, uh, entities. but um i see on the line and um, mental issues, there are different plays that drives uh, all sorts of people and groups that have different interests in libby. yeah. so

this makes it very um, complicated and complex for libya to sit around the table and how the pool today or need to um, to have face and move forward for them for the country. okay, on us, let's move on to the east of libya and the strong man that the lord some cool him, holly for half stuff. he would call himself field marshal after he gave himself that title. he says he's headed the libyan national law. me. that's a militia, not a national law. me based in the east of the country. just tell us about him. because in 2019 he marched on tripoli. he failed. he looked to meet with him either . i did not think even at the time. would you agree? some of his back cuz we're beginning to distance themselves from him. pick up a story that what's happened since that seems to be a research it's. i think it's a 3 think story. and i think when you think of libya's longest standing figures,

you don't have to look far. you find pretty popular has not only been there for the last several years. he's been there for over half a century. he was with mom and he did that through in the 3 categories of 1969 when he has been involved in every single qu, attempt for actual could have yeah. since that dates searching of the site over 55 years. now, what is the fascinating thing about off there, i think is that he is just, you know, resolute. so he's resilience. now when you try to think of his power base, many people will say, well it's not legit. national armies that self styled army that he's created, it's the fact that he's got these relationships with local tribes. the guest, as mentioned, the reality today is that he could not do any of those acts that he has done. and this revival game and recycling that he's been able to do not have any for the last 5 years. but for the last 55 years, if it wasn't for the critical international support that he's given. and that's where the what kinda smell. number one,

he's been given. arm's been violation of that un arms and burger that has been there since you are there in 2011, james, number one. that's the real big question. how do you stop somebody fighting when we keep giving them homes and you don't sanction them? i mean, honestly, you mentioned those. you mentioned, i'm not saying to me that you mentioned that international support. we're not going to be like here. cool them out. who all the countries who are supporting it, have the sure in the united i remember it says 2014 egypt since 2014 russia since 20. 15. 16. 17. but really been entirely with the fall of the group mercenaries since 2019. but let me just be more even even more direct. if he doesn't just have those weapons that they were given to him in 2014, he has asked, strikes dry and strikes him on a flight to the last minute to pass. now the enemy, but if he doesn't have them feel fine until the last message, the syrian mercenaries em or ought to try. and masonry is that came from so that a russian messenger is that the list is endless. chevy and most moves that have

come on over the last 2 years. if you're willing to fight after is willing to pay you for his backers of what it would be. but i still know, you know, other actors have done that interview as well. they also use messengers, they've also got weapons move, violated the arms embargo in the west of libya. what is critical to after support is that it has the diplomatic shielding not only from russia, which has a un security council vote. but if you go back to april 2019, when he launch defensive of the 1st you meet 2nd row, the us threatened to veto any resolution that would criticize i was actually after this is crazy. you were living in a while and that price you crime. that seems to be that russia and the us don't get along. why did they get along when it comes to the question? the pastor? because he still is visited by the us intelligence chief or the psychiatry bill barnes. and the last year he frequently meets with the us um boss of the system on the also holds us citizenship after his 20 years unlikely. virginia,

where he will say moonlighted as i c, i s a, a c i as it from the eighty's. this is one of the most peculiar individuals in global politics. not. i mean, i lived in politics. but what's the approximate thing about emmy's? not only that he's been recycled and reinvented but for several decades. but he's also brought c for 2 players that don't get along in any playground, the us and russia. it was donald trump. the on the 4th of april 2019, gave the green lights to have to, to attack when he was using russian messengers and east of libya. that sounds a little bit like a book written to me because this is where the most the question of libya. it's a study in the west and contradiction. we often had today about the war and goals and how about the study and then contradictions. because the russians are invited anytime that the aggressive, whether it's ro, invades daughter, is defending himself. but you never so you tell us, unless you're on the same table, or on the same playbook, well actually backing the same individual, all be in different ways. but half there is that guy,

and i think one of the history has been what some people are going to scratch. that has to make sense of that adult caught up. we'll talk about libby as neighboring countries, but half does influence the moment, extends beyond the immediate neighborhood of wide claims, many places that half dogs being supplying weapons and fuel to the rapids support forces in saddam's, civil yeah, that and use on that one. so how far is a my, is you very much and for little there's someone who has been, has, as it has been underlined by what guess and supported by different actors such as russia area and the usaid, e u a. and yet, but more than that, he's very unpredictable. i'm not, don't think about how would want to or would. yeah. wouldn't want to uh, to have a national vision for his country. i think about that. he's be coming and then

you're for the whole region. you mation so done, but we can also mentions that child, and we can also mation near molly o r g here. so, so in that sense, i think about 10 half tardy. someone who's getting too much support from more support than he deserves. and we in the course kind of course questions that we have yet to see for the entire region to last and let's talk particularly we talked about countries that are friendly with half the supporting half the allied with left half done, but not still, particularly about russia and what was called the wagner group, now sort of more on the russian control. i see reports of thousands of tons of military equipment being shipped by russia from talk to us in syria to the libyan port of to brook, including ahmed personnel can result henry, unlock it, launches. what do you think russia is? one thing to do here is it to play a major role in libya, or is it to play

a major role be on libya going further south into africa? why say, i think last saw has as objects of, i mean the policy in this sense, the rest. so once i have a foothold in libya and we know that the mom of the deputy has very so i'd be like, how does he started with relations with the rush, what it was provided that was provided a good argument from russia and all of a sudden so rushed off was very, uh, be like, was not happy with the fact that he was going to lose libya after mom. not good enough. he's gone. but i mean, on the other hand, i think that's how that was a play very important role in opening. if you're like, according to or from southwest olivia all the way to the gulf for forgiveness in this sense that it involves countries like malia news and then go all the way to to, to the gulf of dean. and that's very important for russ site in the sense that dividing a group and the minutes of supports that it gives us. so different kinds of countries

is one way for russia to have like very important influence, especially at the moment when, as it's additional, uh, power is that's a very influential in the southern region like france i've been a seam, i mean, different, different, different kinds of problems especially in the book, you know, for us, so in that money and these are, and i think russia is moving in is moving in with the wagner group. i mean, of course it has its own problems like recently in molly, but it rushed that he's very adamant about the fact that he needs to have like a we uh, involvement in, in, in, in the side regions. very important use search, easy play for restaurants and the, the, the provision of the military supports logistics and supports and material resources, diplomatic cover. and also the existence of dividing the group in different places

makes this possible and then have to or is, is, is providing that kind of possibility for russia to be there of whether it's dean. so v, as in a name. so then in the, in charge of but also the most recent to the mobilization across, i mean like a along the border with the jew in southwest olivia. and for a lot of people, i mean that's the big it any feel like of the opening of that kind of corny door, which is very important for, for russian interests and use which egypt, the interest of dakota. less than the mentioned that russia has had some problems. russia is now directly supporting those countries in the so hail that had crews and over through the previous government's news. yeah, molly became the fast. so in the molly, at the end of july, there was an attack by to our like, forces the, a big defeat for russia. some report say 20 russians killed 10 molly and soldiers killed. do you think russia is all skiing?

have to to do this because it is, it's in trouble. it needs this resupply route, well, the roach and me why would i rush hour? is it almost king have to have to do it that or not? it's really difficult to say, but for one uh, for one thing, for sure. uh, how start getting involved in the site, how to would be a tremendous mistake for the entire regions. how the hostile in the, of the country, in addition to those are not the over the roles such as russia, ah, involved in molly or in nature would simply discover lies even more those countries then that are on right now. so i don't thing about time. rush child should have a st call from getting how tight involved in this and in this region we've already so 10 years ago, the consequences of the over the phone will leave. yeah,

they're all, they are the disorganization of libya and the consequences and in a 9 in body. so having all the forces such as the house, those forces, medium forces involved in money and perhaps even more in the of that neighboring countries such as of putting a fossil on nature would simply for the are great the, the current, uh, jewel, political and uh, security situation in the country and then the tire, i mean the on the tire on the side of region on us. do you think that half is only in the south of libya, an operating in these new areas because he's helping the russians or do you think he sees benefit in it for himself? i've seen some suggestions. maybe he wants to seize. good tom is, which is that a racist town which is in libya but close to the border with out you area and tennessee a and then may be a spring board. he's failed in the past, but

a spring bull then to take tripoli. yeah, i mean you're completely right. i'm not deliberately solution. this is i'm, we've seen this play out before now ahead of the war. and so the on, it was kind of off that he was on his son as a dig to, to saddam, to, to whisper in the year of, of how much the, that of the are assess. and tell him and warn him that his advisors are meeting against them. that was later revealed a couple of months later. ahead of this advance and what was happening. the money very recently we've seen helped us and just as other son. so tom, now the head of his own land forces as my mystery across the highway use most recently and looking up also meeting with the new military hunter as well. now we've seen that cloud before. it's not covered, is it? is that what, what was revealed? and the in the end of july and what you spoke about earlier on the sho, in terms of what was happening with the russian mercenaries and the 20th. so they

were killed. this is my son in my view, securing a language for that, perhaps potential retreats of such as the money. but that would also bring up the question of algeria and it's on a position that was with money and with russia not only with popular but certainly looking towards is what have the result. and there's precedence for that as well. in january and february of 20192 months ahead of his move on frequently heading off to move his forces into such a new battery, other southern cities that are near the border region without your your rights and as you themselves. so there is a 1000 historical presidents with this. there was also other 2 incidences, but it's a great planning. a and libya there was a both of these sliced. they cancel one of the arrival upon them in so 6 in the west. i've lived here that boats took place only in the last 10 days that probably was disputed and there was a potential pretext for a mid a tree bush and a political change on, on typically. and i think that's what half there is really kind of

a depth using this is there on october instances, hospitalized to kill multiple beds with one stone. okay. they'll cut out. i'd like to bring you in on. we've mentioned algeria several times how, what rate is out g, a rear, it has a more about a 1000 kilometer boda with libya. it is one of the strongest minute trees in the north african region of egypt. how worried would they be about events? very much word very much for it. very much concerned with what is happening. let's not forget about the is surrounded by the countries um when that in the instability we're talking about maybe of also mation. we need to ration oh, odds. we already mentioned new year and modeling. so um yeah, having troops on its border is something that takes off our great concern for our jr. i cigarette, as i said, it's run surrounded by all the countries on the way. i see some rounded by and

organized crime such as drug trafficking and and um with molly news. yeah. that is organized crime with drug traffic a with uh, a to go uh migration. so all of this makes the allergy. uh, very worried about what's happening. uh, it has been focused for years now on the, on it's some solid in a border with the molly add to a lesser extent to, to a new share, but not when done house, cuz troops on the border we don't hear. it makes it even more complex and communicated from a, a security perspective. so yeah. okay, let me, let me bring your last lesson now. um everyone here in this discussion has a outline, things that sound very well reading for libya and for the region. yet if you were to watch most television news channels, no one is talking about this. what should be the message for the international

community, particularly b, u and the us should the warning lights now be flashing? i think the bullets can process needs to go on and the because half those boxes are far reaching implications for region security. and the presence of foreign powers has turned to conflicts into proxy policy. but i think the, the, the interests community like europe in union, i think the, you and united states. but i think with also with other players like church and the other countries need to push towards like the political process. the political process is something that needs to happen and i think we need to but, but also i think that has been word that house that also has concerns about the fact that he's not getting a shut off oil that has been taught that maybe that can happen, and also there is but isn't that other times from, from the governments in the, in west and libya, the, they have going top like talk soon are in order to bring in everyone and then we will respond to different kinds of needs. i think that's very good news in the

sense that the political process is but still possible and dialogue as soon as possible. but i think what, what needs to happen is for the, for the, for the implementation of the political uh roadmap. because that's the most important thing, i mean to have a good night of the elections and have a share of power between the different kinds of flow. okay, thank you very much science dual august. last and how that on us l. kemati. abdul called the rom, and you can see this probably the program again, any time to watch any of our other shows, all of them are available on demand it down to 0. don't. com. if you have views on the situation in libya and the why do we can post them on our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story or on x, the form of twitter. you'll find this as a inside story from one of us here and out. is there a headquarters in doha, please stay safe on james phase, and i'll see you back here. very soon, bye bye. for now, the across

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