hosted by a fossil fuel—enriched fiefdom, the united arab emirates. so does that mean the big oil and gas producers finally get it and are committed to decarbonisation? or could it be a sign that the much—vaunted energy transition is being de—prioritised thanks to geopolitical and economic realities? well, my guest is fatih birol, executive director of the international energy agency. is our addiction to fossilfuels proving too strong to break?

fatih birol, welcome to hardtalk. thank you. every year the world awaits your world energy report, it is hugely influential, and this year it said something very interesting. it predicted that, for the first time, demand forfossilfuels, oil, coal and gas, will peak by 2030 and then start to decline. now, is that based on real evidence or is it your wishful thinking? no, i think it is based on very real evidence. there are two drivers which will end up giving us a different world in 2030 compared to today. the first one is... ..a new clean—energy economy is emerging. emerging fast, and faster than many of us realise. let me give you a couple of examples. electric cars.

three years ago, only three years ago, 1 out of 25 cars sold in the world was electric. so three years ago, 1 out of 25. this year, 1 out of 5 cars sold is electric. and even with the current conservative policies, 2030, every second car sold in the world will be an electric car. look at the other side... i'm going to stop you right there... of course. ..cos that is a dramatic set of figures, a dramatic prediction for transition to electric vehicles. but the big oil companies say that even if every car were to transition to electric within, let's say, the next ten years, there would still be a huge demand for their product. there would be still a demand for oil, but it will not be huge. so because there is other driver of the global oil demand,

which is one country, a big country, which is china. look, china, in the last ten years, more than two—thirds of the global oil consumption came from china. china was the biggest driver. the reason is china's economy grew very strongly, 6% per year. and when we look at the next years, everybody accepts, including the chinese government, that the chinese economy will slow down. so clean—energy economy, the electric cars, the numbers are growing. the biggest driver of the fossil fuel consumption is slowing down, means a peak of oil, gas and coal before the end of 2030. right. the thing is, it's interesting, because you, fatih birol, have made your own sort of transition. not so many years ago, you actually worked for 0pec... that's right. ..the group of oil—producing nations. now you head up the international energy agency, and you've put this focus on trying to advocate for a dramatic and quick energy transition.

but those who are still in 0pec say that you are basically now more ideology driven than you are fact driven. and i'm going to quote you the kuwaiti 0pec secretary general, haitham al ghais, who says that your narrative is setting up the global energy system to fail spectacularly. he says that if you got it your way and that oil essentially had reached peak demand and was then going to be tailing off as a world commodity, the world would be sent into a sort of energy crisis, and that your vision is deeply irresponsible. so, a few things, a few facts. first of all, climate crisis is a real one. and climate crisis is driven by fossil fuels, including oil, gas and coal. number three... but if i may... yes. ..energy insecurity is also very real. but i will come to that.

but, look, we say that oil demand is going to peak before 2030, but almost all oil companies in europe, and some of them in the united states, exactly say the same thing. if there is an outlier, the outlier... the statements come from the ones that you have just read. everybody has his or her own opinion, but we just look at the facts. we put the facts on the table. and if... i want to also add something. if we are not able to bend the curve for fossil fuels, everybody — 0pec, iea, bbc — everybody will be in trouble. but the market, the market also speaks loud, doesn't it? and what we have seen in the last year or so, in the financial markets across the world, is huge new investments being made in the big, giant fossil fuel corporations. their share prices are soaring... yeah. ..and their profits, even more, are soaring. and at the same time,

many of those companies that have gone big into renewable energy, wind turbines and that sort of thing, their share prices are falling quite significantly. isn't the market telling us something? i think the profitability — we shouldn'tjust measure what is happening in the momentum and the share prices. i'll give you a much, in my view, a much more telling indicator. you know, we are now in the middle of a cop meeting, and remember, we had another cop meeting in paris in 2015. so between 2015 and today, when we have the cop meeting now, in the last eight years, global clean energy investment increased from 1 trillion, today to 2 trillion us dollars, and the fossil fuel investment, 2015 to today, remained the same. so clean energy, it attracts investments.

but the problem is bulk of this investment go to the clean energy projects in developed countries and china, not enough to developing countries. well, i guess you can interpret statistics and facts in different ways. i'm looking at something here which tells me that chevron, one of the biggest oil companies in the world, is currently planning to spend just $2 billion of its $14 billion annual capital spend budget on lower carbon investments. in other words, the vast majority of their investment goes on to continued production and exploration of traditional oil and gas. and many businesspeople around the world would tell you that fossil fuel returns right now are still higher than returns that come from clean energy ventures. perfect. so, two answers to your question. first of all, large—scale fossil fuel investment, as you just mentioned now, in my view, not only pose a climate risk,

which is agreed by everybody, including the climate scientists, but also, a business risk, because i don't believe that after 2030 the world needs additional huge amounts of oil or gas or coal. this is number one. number two — we look at the last ten year, the returns. returns for the fossil fuel companies were between 6% and 9%. for the clean energy, it was about 6%. so there is not a big difference there. right, but... yeah. ..you'vejust told me, i mean, you've tried to sort of glide over it somewhat, but returns are better for the fossil fuel companies. slightly better. but the returns for the fossil fuels were much more volatile than the clean energy returns. but isn't this the very point at the heart of the problem, fatih birol? if we are to get the kind of transition to massive investment in renewables and much less investment in fossil fuels, indeed, a recognition that investment in fossil fuels has to pretty much

come to an end over the next generation... they have to. ..if we are to get there, it's notjust going to happen through the market, is it? somehow the world needs to find ways, perhaps through taxation, to make it much more expensive to produce oil and gas and to encourage renewables. governments should sit in the driving seat in ourfight against climate change. if everything is left to markets, it will not happen as quickly as we would like to see. it will take much longer time. but i have to say one more thing. mm. you mentioned one oil company put some money, significant amount of money into lower carbon. you know what? when you talk about hearing the speeches of the leaders of the oil and gas industry or the oil and gas producers, they talk maybe 80—90% clean energy and 10—20% under the traditional operations. but we have looked —

how much of the investments of the total oil and gas industry goes to clean energy, how much to the traditional one? you know how much? only 2.5% of their total investment goes to clean energy and 97.5% goes to their traditionalfossilfuels, which is a big contradiction of the share of the clean energy in their statements and speeches or advertisements. but how do you change that? how do you change it? the governments need to show the way. and this meeting, the very cop meeting we are in, can be a very important occasion that the governments around the world coming together and give a strong signal to the markets, to the people, that the future is clean energy. we've couched this conversation thus far, mostly in terms of what is happening in the developed industrialised world, both in terms of consumption and production, actually. exactly. but the truth is that what really matters over the next 50 years is what happens in countries like india and china. india... yeah. ..pretty extraordinary figure here. current coal production

in india — 900 million tonnes. by 2030, when you say peak fossil fuels will have passed, actually india expects to be producing 1.3 billion tonnes of coal. if a country like india is going in that direction, how can your forecast be right? so what i mentioned is that the global coal is going to peak. there will be different countries with different characteristics, but the world as a total is going to peak before 2030, the coal consumption. coming back to india. infact, india is one of the countries where we see the speediest, the largest growth of clean energy, especially solar. solar... in the past, when we talk about coal, there was a. . .there's a motto — "king coal." king coal is dead. there is a queen. this is the solar. solar is the queen now,

because solar is the cheapest source of electricity generation. solar is growing so strongly, not only because of this climate or environmental benefits, but because it is cheap. so 20 years ago, solar was a romantic story. now it is the... 60% of all the power plants built in the world is solar. we are speaking as cop28 proceeds in the united arab emirates. the uae is a significant fossilfuel producer. what do you think of the symbolism of putting a cop conference, which is supposed to be... yeah. ..urgently addressing the climate crisis in a country like uae? it is a legitimate question, but the problem is here — the problem is with the oil and gas producers. we have to change. if we want to change the energy world, it is not a bad place to start. but are they listening? i mean, i noticed, for example, that the middle eastern oil producers are not members of your

international energy agency. no. why? because they have different views, they have different intentions. but we work with them. we work with them closely. they don't need to be a member of the international energy agency. what is important for me, for this cop we are in, it is that they are facing the moment of truth, in my view, the oil and gas industry, in this cop. because they have to make a choice whether or not they are going to be partners of the many, many stakeholders in their fight against climate change, or they will continue to burn fossilfuels... but... ..and exaggerate the climate crisis. but with respect, mr birol, despite your words, they seem to have already made their decision. again, looking at uae, which is hosting cop28, they have made a strategic decision to... they say they're going to extract 38 billion barrels,

roughly, of oil between now and 2085 — an extraordinary number. but they say — and this is interesting — they say they can do that and continue to commit their country to be part of the effort to get to that goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees centigrade. they seem to say they can have it both, have their cake and eat it, because they say they are focused now on carbon capture. they believe that capturing the carbon emissions that come from their oil and gas is the key to the future. do you buy it? i think this is one of the hot topics at the cop under discussion now. now, in my view, as somebody who makes his hands dirty with data every single day, energy data, climate data, it is impossible, on one hand, to keep the current oil and gas production trends of a company, of a country, and at the same

time say that we are committed to paris climate targets and we will solve it through carbon capture and storage. carbon capture and storage is an important technology which helps to reduce the carbon footprint of the fossil fuels. but this is going to be implemented for some industrial sectors, such as the iron, steel, chemicals and the others. just to give you...put in a context, if a company, if the world, would produce oil and gas, as much as they do today, and to reach the climate targets, the amount of investment going to carbon capture and storage needs to be multiplied by a factor of 1,000. so today, the investment going to carbon capture and storage is about 4 billion. it should come, every year, about 4 trillion, which is impossible. so it's a fantasy. yeah. because it's just interesting that sultan al—jaber of the uae, who is obviously instrumental in this cop... yeah, of course. ..he remains a huge advocate of this carbon capture,

saying it does offer a huge opportunity. 0pportunity, that will be had from carbon capture and storage, but it will not be a game—changer for the entire oil and gas industry. and it shouldn't be an excuse to make large—scale fossil fuel investments. so if carbon capture isn't some sort of silver bullet, and everybody, as the cliche says, you know, acknowledges silver bullets don't really exist, then we have to look at the data. according to experts, it needs almost $5 trillion a year invested in renewables by 2030 to get us on track to meet our climate change targets. the reality is that right now we're at 1.8 trillion. we're not going to close that gap. so this is, in fact, these are our numbers, and you are completely right. today, the clean energy, all together, renewables, energy efficiency, hydrogen, etc, close to 2 trillion and they need to come to 5 trillion.

it's a huge gap. and the problem is not only the gap is huge, the bulk of this investment needs to come from, as you just mentioned, from developing countries. if it was to come from the advanced economy, it would be easier. so what is needed here is to help the developing countries for their financing of their clean energy investments. and i very much hope one of the outcomes of this cop meeting here is to help building mechanisms to support a clean energy investment in the developing countries. but again, the market talks, and what we see in countries like the united states and the united kingdom is that some of the biggest players in renewables are walking away from investments in future projects because they say they can't make them pay. yeah. so there are, of course, as it is happening also in the fossil fuel industry, there are some companies where there are bad days and good days for the companies. but i can tell you the clean

energy is emerging very fast, the solar. let me give you an example. this year, of all the power plants built in the world, 80% are renewables. so 80% renewables of all the power plants. and these are not done byjust one country or the two countries, this is around the world, and coming from china, india, us, europe and others. so why are hedge funds shorting wind energy stocks right now? 0h, they may have some assumptions about the wind, because wind energy is going through some difficult times... you can say that again. ..because of higher... ..higher interest rates, because of some technical problems they have faced. they are cyclical problems. i don't see them being structural challenges in front of the clean energy. yeah. again, it is important to remember, in all of these conversations, that what matters over the next 50 years isn't so much the sort of legacy of industrialisation in the west, but the future of industrialisation in the emerging economies.

i'm just wondering whether you believe, and you are a powerful advocate, that your message is getting through in beijing, in delhi, injakarta, in brasilia. yes, very much so. very much so. and they are seeing, those countries, we should not underestimate how much those countries are reading the game, the energy game. they are putting their money, their investment, in the right things. for example, you mentioned china. mm. today, 80% of the solar panels in the world are produced in china. india, in terms of, again, solar, wind, making big, big moves. brazil, again, in terms of bioenergy, going very strongly. is it enough? no. they need support. those countries, india, brazil and african countries. and looking at the trends, it is very important linking also the carbon capture and storage. if we want to bring the fossil fuel emissions down, we have to bring fossil fuels down. there is no way around it.

yeah. we're talking about emerging economies which represent, what, roughly 80% of the global population? yes. but what percentage of investment in clean energies do those countries claim right now? much less. about 25%. but that... again, that's a fundamental disconnect. it's a big gap, and this is the front line of our fight against climate change. because even for uk, the emissions in the uk, if they go tomorrow to zero, if the other countries would continue as they are, the impact of climate change on the uk would be the same. it will not change. still the negative impacts. therefore, there is a need, from selfish reasons, from ethical reasons, to help the developing countries to reduce their emissions. i have interviewed you before, and over years, it seems to me you've been an inveterate optimist.

despite all of the blows that you see on the world political stage, you continue to believe that it can be done, that the climate change challenge can be met. does it worry you that, right now, it seems the political winds in many countries are blowing in the wrong direction? governments and voters right now seem to be extremely apprehensive about the costs that they perceive to be coming with the energy transition. you are right. there are some recent political developments which are not necessarily in favour of the fight against climate change. but what makes me hopeful or encouraging is today, men in the street in new delhi, a woman injakarta, or the kids

playing football in rio dejaneiro are establishing the links between the extreme weather events, and the fossil fuel consumption, and fossilfuel companies. so this, establishing the links around the world, of the developing world, is a very powerful driver, in addition to what is happening in europe, new york or whatever it is. but the question of leadership returns. what if the world sees, for example, the return to power in the united states of a man, donald trump, who is committed to, again, taking the united states out of the paris climate treaty, out of the cop process — what kind of signal would that send to the rest of the world? i think there are, and there will be, changes in the governments, pro climate, not pro climate. but i can tell you when we look at the technology, when we look at the markets, cost effectiveness of the solar, wind, electric cars, efficiency, heat pumps and everything, the clean energy revolution is unstoppable. there may be hiccups because of the changes in the governments,

but it is going to go. it may slow down certain political developments, but the trend is very clear. the question is, if it slows down, will it be too late or not to reach our climate goals? yes. so a final thought. we all know that most scientists now believe keeping the threshold of climate change rise to 1.5 degrees is impossible. even with your optimism, are you now in that camp, too? no, i am not. it is getting narrower and narrower to reach the 1.5, but the clean energy developments around the world, this big momentum i am seeing day by day, is keeping the door open to 1.5 still. therefore, the results which will come from this cop meeting in dubai will be crucial in that respect as well. well, we have to wait to see those results. but for now, fatih birol, i thank you very much for being on hardtalk.

thank you very much, sir. hello, there. plenty of wintry scenes recorded by our weather watchers across the uk, throughout the weekend, such as here in derbyshire, with the lying snow, but further south, across much of england and south wales, then it turned milder on sunday, with outbreaks of rain moving northwards, and for all of us, the current cold spell will be coming to an end as we head through this week. it will be turning milder, but the payback is it's also going to be wetter and windier for much of the time. now, we've seen this deep area of low pressure just

roll its way northwards and eastwards, strong, gusty winds towards channel coasts through the night. still some heavy downpours of rain around, snow over any elevation. this is how we're starting off monday morning. cold and frosty still towards the north, but milder further south, 5 to 7 degrees celsius here. but let's just zoom in on the north of england and north wales where we could see some icy conditions, tricky travelling conditions, i think, particularly over the higher passes of the pennines and across north wales, with some of this rain turning to snow with any elevation. but most of this will be falling as rain, maybe wet snow to lower levels, though, at times with any intensity, and there's a brisk northerly wind blowing. we'll see some strong, gusty winds, particularly across western wales and to the southwest of england. it's going to feel cold in exposure to that wind despite the fact that, in theory, temperatures will be higher than yesterday. largely dry for northern ireland and much of scotland, away from the east,

with perhaps a few isolated showers around. so still feeling pretty raw with the briskness of that wind on monday. the same still true on tuesday, but our deep area of low pressure is gradually pushing its way further eastwards. it's very slow moving. there'll still be some patchy outbreaks of rain, i think, across much of northern england. again, with any elevation, this could be falling as snow. still some rain too, just feeding down from western wales towards the southwest of england. but elsewhere, i think it will tend to turn a bit drier, particularly away from east anglia, as we head through the afternoon. largely dry for scotland, but still temperatures struggling to get above freezing over any lying snow. but a drier, brighter day, particularly out towards the west. and it's going to be a very cold night on tuesday. again, a widespread frost with some patches of freezing fog developing. then we've got another low just working its way in from the southwest, and this is going to drag with it some much milderfeeling air. so just look at those temperatures go up. by the time we get to thursday, we're back up into double figures across the board. but it will be wet and windy at times with perhaps some transient snow in the north. bye— bye.

live from london, this is bbc news. after three days of intense bombardment, the israeli military says its ground offensive against hamas targets

in southern gaza has begun. weather warnings continue in parts of the uk with thousands of homes across cumbria still without power after days of heavy snowfall. the 2026 commonwealth games hosting headache continues with the australian state of victoria out of the running. another location pulls out of a bid. and the giant pandas set to return to china today after 12 years at edinburgh zoo. hello. thanks forjoining us. a very warm welcome to the programme. i'm sally bundock. israeli ground forces are pushing into southern gaza after three days of heavy bombardment with troops being told the operation would be no less powerful than in the north of the enclave. israeli bombardments on khan younis and rafah in the south

have continued, as have those on the jabaliya refugee camp in the north.