he is set to argue that "growth must become labour's obsession" if it wins the next general election. sir keir will be speaking at a conference organised by the think tank resolution foundation. he will say that those expecting an incoming labour government to "quickly turn on the spending taps" will be "disappointed". live now to our political correspondent harry farley one. i correspondent harry farley one. have mentioned s is i have mentioned similar things he is expected to say. what else is in the speech we know?— is expected to say. what else is in the speech we know? what we know is it will be about _ the speech we know? what we know is it will be about expectation _ it will be about expectation management. labour officials are conscious that if labour were to win the election next, that we are expected next, the economic conditions in uk faces, the outlook won't suddenly change. there would be a rapid change in those forecasts. what they are trained to do with this speech is to dampen

down and manage expectations that labour would suddenly be able to change that in a matter of weeks. there is a concern among some in labour that the excitement from some would quickly turn to disappointment when that realisation hits. i think what we know from what labour have said about the speech is keir starmer will say the uk faces huge constraints on public spending. and that anyone expecting a labour government to quickly turn on the spending tops will be disappointed. and hanging heavy in the air here in westminster is that election next year, is the prospect of that. and knowing the economy will be central to it, the debate around the economy and who is trusted most to govern the public finance will be a central part of that election, and really keir starmer in the speech this

afternoon is trying to pitch himself and the labour party as the party of economic credibility. he will also say, make and point taxes are higher than at any point since the war. he will be laying out his own plans to try and reform the economy, plans on reforming the planning sector, so how you get houses and other buildings built. plans on tax and spending, and that is part of the wider picture, i suppose, he is making to the electorate ahead of that election next year that he and not party of economic responsibility. conscious in labour�*s mind is in that previous elections, the conservatives have tackled labour on the economy and pitch them as irresponsible. we heard jeremy hunt in the in the same event questioning whether labour's

green investment, £28 billion every year into green technology, green jobs, part of its plans to tackle the climate, and jeremy hunt questioning whether it would be feasible whilst meeting the fiscal rules to reduce borrowing at the same time. i think keir starmer will try and get ahead of the argument and try and counter any attacks from the conservatives on the economic record, pitching himself and the labour party as the one of economic responsibility, credibility and manage the expectations labour will suddenly be able to turn on the spending taps. we will see a range of it from the labour leader sir keir starmer.— of it from the labour leader sir keir starmer. ~ ., ., , ., ~ , keir starmer. who do you think this .ae. keir starmer. who do you think this -a~e curl keir starmer. who do you think this page curl speech — keir starmer. who do you think this page curl speech is _ keir starmer. who do you think this page curl speech is aimed - keir starmer. who do you think this page curl speech is aimed at, - keir starmer. who do you think this page curl speech is aimed at, the l page curl speech is aimed at, the business leaders, or is it aimed at

people in his own party who maybe think they will be able to put more into public spending if they win power? it into public spending if they win ower? , , ., into public spending if they win ower? , ,., ., ., power? it is both. on the one hand, the peeple — power? it is both. on the one hand, the peeple in _ power? it is both. on the one hand, the peeple in the — power? it is both. on the one hand, the people in the room _ power? it is both. on the one hand, the people in the room are - the people in the room are economists, business and official leaders, and part of what keir starmer has been trying to do since he took over is windows people around, persuade them and the leader party. it is saying they can manage the economy well, they have planned to do it and will stick to fiscal rules around borrowing. but then to those in his own party. we saw in an interview with the sunday telegraph this weekend so keir starmer praising the former conservative prime minister margaret thatcher, which raised eyebrows among some in the labour leadership and in the

labour party. obviously, margaret thatcher controversial figure for some in the labour party, but keir starmer praising herfor the reforms she introduced and the progress in the economy. i think that's part of the economy. i think that's part of the message to his own mps, saying we are the party of economic credibility and responsibility. that is the pitch he is trying to make this afternoon to his own mps and those in the room and voters watching at home. i those in the room and voters watching at home.— those in the room and voters watching at home. i know you will sta with watching at home. i know you will stay with us- _ watching at home. i know you will stay with us. you _ watching at home. i know you will stay with us. you can _ watching at home. i know you will stay with us. you can see - watching at home. i know you will stay with us. you can see on - watching at home. i know you will stay with us. you can see on your| stay with us. you can see on your screen the people filing into the foundation resolution who have been holding this conference. as harry mentioned, the chancellorjeremy mentioned, the chancellor jeremy hunt mentioned, the chancellorjeremy hunt was speaking at that event. he says he hopes to reverse planned cuts to spending when the time is right. he said the uk economy has a sprained ankle rather than a broken leg, with untapped potential that could make it the most prosperous

this century. a report by the think tank has warned the uk is facing a toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality, with the average losing out on more than £10,000 a year because wage growth has flatlined. the chancellor has said the report ignores some of the wider context. ~ ., the report ignores some of the wider context. ~ . ., ., , ., , context. what we had was the worst financial crisis _ context. what we had was the worst financial crisis since _ context. what we had was the worst financial crisis since the _ context. what we had was the worst financial crisis since the second - financial crisis since the second world war which affected lots of countries, notjust our country. countries, not just our country. since countries, notjust our country. since 2010, we've actually grown faster than spain, portugal, since 2010, we've actually grown fasterthan spain, portugal, france, italy, the netherlands, austria, germany and japan. the majority of the countries he was comparing to us too, we've grown faster than. it is right to say why how all of us falling into the slow growth paradigms, and what can we do to get out of it? but i don't think this is something we are uniquely in a

bad situation with respect to. this is affecting all western nations, and you have to have a plan. the only thing _ and you have to have a plan. the only thing we _ and you have to have a plan. the only thing we have to go on for your plans— only thing we have to go on for your plans for— only thing we have to go on for your plans for the — only thing we have to go on for your plans for the next five years would be plans for the next five years would he the _ plans for the next five years would be the autumn statement. if you look there. _ be the autumn statement. if you look there. you _ be the autumn statement. if you look there, you actually have real public investment — there, you actually have real public investment declining. is it sensible to have _ investment declining. is it sensible to have declining public investment? i to have declining public investment? i don't _ to have declining public investment? i don't think you want declining public investment. i very much hope we will get back into a place where we will get back into a place where we don't have to do that. it is important to say that in 2020, the capital budget, which is the closest proxy you have to public investment, went up by its highest ever level, 21%, from £70 billion to £100 billion. we are spending in terms of public capital spending £30 billion more in real terms a year. it

public capital spending £30 billion more in real terms a year.- more in real terms a year. it has risen as a _ more in real terms a year. it has risen as a share _ more in real terms a year. it has risen as a share of _ more in real terms a year. it has risen as a share of gdp, - more in real terms a year. it has risen as a share of gdp, it - more in real terms a year. it has risen as a share of gdp, it has i more in real terms a year. it has i risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up, risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up. but _ risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up. but it— risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up. but it will— risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up, but it will go down. hang risen as a share of gdp, it has gone up, but it will go down.— up, but it will go down. hang on, let's exniain _ up, but it will go down. hang on, let's explain what _ up, but it will go down. hang on, let's explain what happened. - up, but it will go down. hang on, let's explain what happened. in l up, but it will go down. hang on, i let's explain what happened. in that 2020 budget where rishi sunak was chancellor, it was the biggest ever increase. i then had to balance the books are year ago. it was incredibly difficult, but it was necessary for the markets and for the battle against inflation. what i chose to do was freeze that capital budget in cash terms, which is not a freeze in real terms. i hope as soon as we can afford to, we can get back to real terms growth, but i'm committed to investment. that to realterms growth, but i'm committed to investment. that is jeremy hunt _ committed to investment. that is jeremy hunt speaking _ committed to investment. that is jeremy hunt speaking at - committed to investment. that is jeremy hunt speaking at the - jeremy hunt speaking at the conference earlier this morning. you can see on the right—hand side of your screen people filing in. we will hear from the labour leader so keir starmer with his plans shortly, and we will bring it to you on bbc

news. the big political story is the government will set out plans for cutting legal migration this afternoon. latest figures showed it hit a record high last year — with almost three quarters of a million more people arriving in the uk than leaving it. the prime minister rishi sunak has been under pressure over the issue and today in the commons, his new home secretary james cleverley is expected to announce the minimum salary for skilled workers coming from overseas will be significantly increased. our political correspondent ione wells reports. the population grew by about 1% last year. the fastest rate since the 19605 year. the fastest rate since the 1960s baby boom. this time it was driven by international migration. which ministers have pledged to reduce. i am clear the levels of net migration are too high, they need to come down to more sustainable levels. it is encouraging the office for national statistics said the bombers last week are slowing, but

we need to do more. the bombers last week are slowing, but we need to do more.— we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak _ we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak is _ we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak is the _ we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak is the rise _ we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak is the rise was - we need to do more. the problem rishi sunak is the rise was driven | rishi sunak is the rise was driven tjy rishi sunak is the rise was driven by active government policies, not a legal migration which the government plans to tackle severally by sending asylum seekers away. work and study visas were the main driver of people coming to the uk, particular abusers to fill shortages in the nhs and social care. you can see on the green line how migration has increased sharply since 2021. as you can see in the dark blue line, it is due to a rise in immigration from non—eu countries. it coincides with free movement ending for eu nationals, covid restrictions easing and a new points immigration system, making it easierfor and a new points immigration system, making it easier for non—eu and a new points immigration system, making it easierfor non—eu migrants to live or study in the uk. more eu nationals are leaving than arriving, so non—eu migration is driving the increase. the government has been considering limiting the number of relatives workers can bring with them, raising the minimum wage

threshold and abolishing the system that allows employers to pay less if there are staff shortages. these options may come with trade—offs for the economy, workforce and other sectors facing staff shortages. all tricky balances rishi sunak will need to strike to keep his party and voters on strike. our chief political correspondent, henry zeffman, outlined what measures the home secretary is likely to announce later. it was just a bland statistical update a couple of weeks ago, which revealed net migration in 2022 had gone away above 700,000, a new record. that became a lightning rod for dissatisfaction among conservative mps. how successive prime ministers have tackled the issue of migration since the uk that the eu. today we will get the answer from rishi sunak and his new home

secretary james cleverly. we are expecting them to propose a fairly far—reaching package, significant increase in the minimum salary for a skilled a holder to come to the uk, but also curbs on the number of social care visas that could be granted. new restrictions on the number of dependents and migrants can bring with them to this country, and also perhaps some new conditions for student visas. of course, this is just one part of the government's migration challenge, because there is a legal migration. we are expecting some movement this week on that. you could see james cleverly flying out to ru wonder to upgrade the existing agreement to the status of a treaty. the government hopes it might do a bit to get that policy back on track. potentially a very big week for how the government, how this country approaches migration, both legal and illegal, both with

potential profound consequences for those who seek to come to this country. those who seek to come to this count . ~ ., those who seek to come to this count . ~ . , . country. we are expecting the statement _ country. we are expecting the statement from _ country. we are expecting the statement from the _ country. we are expecting the statement from the home - country. we are expecting the - statement from the home secretary about legal migration later. we will bring it to you live. what you can see on the right—hand of your screen is the resolution foundation in london. that is where we are expecting keir starmer to speak shortly. he will outline labour's plans for the economy, especially if it were to win power at the next general election. we will keep that “p general election. we will keep that up on screen, and we will cross to it as soon as keir starmer speaks. but some of the rest of the news. the rac has warned that parts of the uk could be facing "ice rink monday" today — after the weekend's snow froze overnight. it follows days of freezing temperatures and disruption caused by the wintry weather. yunus mulla reports. ambleside in the lake district where

the snow begins to clear, chance for people to return home. this group had arrived from merseyside for their annual get—together, but spent longer here than expected. tote their annual get-together, but spent longer here than expected.— longer here than expected. we were advised not — longer here than expected. we were advised not to _ longer here than expected. we were advised not to leave, _ longer here than expected. we were advised not to leave, all _ longer here than expected. we were advised not to leave, all the - longer here than expected. we were advised not to leave, all the roads . advised not to leave, all the roads were closed. we ended up seeing if there were any spare rooms for the knights and stayed over. tote there were any spare rooms for the knights and stayed over.— knights and stayed over. we saw someone in _ knights and stayed over. we saw someone in the _ knights and stayed over. we saw someone in the car _ knights and stayed over. we saw someone in the car park- knights and stayed over. we saw someone in the car park and - knights and stayed over. we saw someone in the car park and it i knights and stayed over. we saw. someone in the car park and it took them _ someone in the car park and it took them five _ someone in the car park and it took them five hours to get from windermere to hear. it is not worth it. windermere to hear. it is not worth it we _ windermere to hear. it is not worth it we all— windermere to hear. it is not worth it. we all made a call and decided to stay— it. we all made a call and decided to stay and — it. we all made a call and decided to stay and not risk it.— to stay and not risk it. across the reaion, to stay and not risk it. across the region. more _ to stay and not risk it. across the region, more than _ to stay and not risk it. across the region, more than 40 _ to stay and not risk it. across the region, more than 40 schools - to stay and not risk it. across the| region, more than 40 schools are close. this is in langdale, children enjoying the day off. more than 30 centimetres of snow fell in some areas over the weekend. hundreds of motorists were stuck, some slept in their cars, others are refuge centres. cumbria police said the focus of a coordinated response from

a number of different agencies has moved to supporting the communities affected by the heavy snowfall, with homes and businesses still without power. engineers are trying to restore power to affected homes, but access to damaged areas is a problem. access to damaged areas is a roblem. , , access to damaged areas is a problem-— access to damaged areas is a roblem. , ., problem. this is some of the worst snow people _ problem. this is some of the worst snow people have _ problem. this is some of the worst snow people have seen _ problem. this is some of the worst snow people have seen in - problem. this is some of the worst snow people have seen in this - problem. this is some of the worst | snow people have seen in this area, so you can imagine it adds to the challenge of how we get out to even begin to fix the fault. the important thing is to keep people safe, the welfare of our customers, and we are doing a lot of work to help our customers, the one who are out there. �* , ,, , ., help our customers, the one who are outthere. �* , ,, ,., help our customers, the one who are outthere.�* , ,, ,., , out there. businesses are open but there are few— out there. businesses are open but there are few visitors _ out there. businesses are open but there are few visitors today. - out there. businesses are open but there are few visitors today. it - there are few visitors today. it could be a few days yet here before they return to normal in ambleside. you can keep up to date with all the weather on the bbc website. let me

take you back to central london, where keir starmer is expected to speak very shortly at the resolution foundation conference in central london. the chancellorjeremy hunt spoke earlier this morning at that event, and keir starmer is coming into the event, so let's cross to central london to hear what he is going to say. he's being introduced at that event, and we know he will warm the uk will face huge constraints on public spending. let's listen to what he is saying. and on behalf of an organisation that always shines and unsparing light on what working people need. the economic security that is essential for their hopes, their aspiration, theirfuture. the purpose which drives everything my labour party six to achieve. i want to start by thanking you, all the

commissioners on the economy 2030 inquiry, and everyone here at the resolution foundation, for all the vital work you do guiding that mission. i know it has been a busy year, and i'm sorry icon promised next year will be any easier. now, i suspect this is a room that likes a graph, and not in the way the lib dems do. so i would like to start by drawing your attention to a chart published by the resolution foundation following the autumn statement. some of you will have seen it before. it is truly shocking, because what it shows is this parliament is on track to be the first in modern history while living standards in this country have contracted. household income growth down by 3.1%. britain worse

off. over the last 13 years, we may have become a little desensitised by findings like this, but these aren't the concerns of the past. this isn't living standards rising to slowly, or unequal contractions and concentrations of wealth and opportunity. this is britain going backwards. decline. notjust diagnosed by politicians, a decline that can be measured and experienced in the homes, the pockets, the aspirations and anxieties of millions of people across britain. now, i'm not here today to hit you over the head with the statistics that flow from that. that is toast and's job. that flow from that. that is toast and'sjob. but what that flow from that. that is toast and's job. but what this does to a country, the cultural trauma, this

needs to be understood. i go back to the 1970s, growing up in a working—class household, a decade where we had ourfair share of working—class household, a decade where we had our fair share of cost of living crisis. i know what this feels like. i know when you're struggling to make ends meet, and we were, that the natural of working people, to work harder and harder, can feel you are running faster and faster into a brick wall. that rising prices create this kind of what anxiety? a fear, and it really is that, of going to the shops because of the decisions you might have to make. and yet that graph shows unequivocally that this is worse than the 1970s. worse than the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, worse even than the global crush of

2008. before anyone ventures the pandemic and the war in ukraine as explanations, big shocks, undoubtedly, i'd point to the evidence the economy inquiry has set out at length that our productivity failings, the root cause predates those shocks. other countries have dealt with those same challenges much more effectively. so we are in a hole. no doubt about it. and what this feels like is a clouding over, a loss of the future. because what my parents felt the 1970s was that whilst day—to—day life was often tough, the future would be a happier place, britain would be betterfor your children. hard work in the long run would be rewarded. and that was

actually a comfort to them, a security blanket, if you like, but one which for working people in britain now sadly no longer exists. that is the upshot of that graph. a political consensus that if you work hard and play by the rules, you will get on, which is a glue that binds british society together, has become nothing short of a lie for millions. it is a well from which so many political horrors can spring. but i say to all of you, if we are privileged enough to be elected next year, the quack diagnosis, the search for distractions and excuses, all of that ends. because the defining purpose of the next labour government, the mission that stands above all others will be raising britain's productivity growth, a goal that for my party will become

an obsession. and that's a big change for us, having wealth creation as your number one priority. that has not always been the labour party's comfort zone, trust me. but that is the change i knew was necessary, that is the change i have delivered, and my party is united behind me. we see clearly the country before us. but i do want to be clear, it is not the case that any growth will do. we can't be agnostic about the sort of growth we pursue. the growth we need must better served working people, and must raise living standards in every community. now, i know this is a room that will know exactly how hard a mission like that is. we all

know the headwinds, the revolutions in energy, science, technology, the rising geopolitical temperature, terrorism, climate change, securing our borders, and age of insecurity. we see all of that, and yet the truth is, even before so many of these threats, it wasn't exactly a golden age for living standards, equality or productivity, was it? even during the last time we were in government, even when we enjoyed the most sustained period of redistribution in british history, did it redistribute dignity and respect to working people? or was that glue for too many places starting to come a little unstuck? the truth is, despite all the headwinds, despite the inheritance being stored up for us, this is a

new era, and we must establish, as other politicians have in the past, a new economic consensus. with a different model of growth, a different model of growth, a different set of values, and i different set of values, and i different analysis of the state and its role in the economy. now, some people have called this modern supply—side theory. because it recognises the unchanging fundamental, that growth comes from the supply—side expansion now needs a new toolkit. others have called it productive as an, acknowledging the obsession with raising productivity at is now required. they are both good, but for me, the best description comes from my favourite economist, who calls it secure economics, which is not easy to say.

nonetheless, rachel reeves's description is perfect, because in a single word it captures all the insights which will shape this era and our approach. first that the stability we enjoyed during the great moderation, that period of calm before the financial crash, and the conditions it provided for hyper globalisation, that era is over. cooperation and trade must now respect a mutual need for security. second, that broad—based growth, economic security for every community is now the only way to a stable politics and national unity. in short, we have to deliver on levelling up. we have to provide a more secure foundation for working people to get on. with cheaper bills, more home ownership and stronger worker rights. but most of

all, we have to provide sustained economic stability. this isn'tjust rhetoric. when politics keeps lurching, when you lose control of the economy, as this government has done, that loads political insecurity on the backs of working people and family finances take the hit. third insight, a stick and plaster approach to public investment, seen again in recent cuts to capital investment, is bad for business investment, bad for living standards, bad for growth, and in the end bad for the public finances as well. fourth, that the old laissez faire complacency on industrial policy will not deliver the long—term stability that investors need in this era. i'm fifth, that in a world where the likes of president putin will weapon

eyes key supply chains, outsourcing critical industrial capacity is damaging notjust for economic damaging not just for economic security, damaging notjust for economic security, but also for national security. now, if you fail to act on these five principles, the end result is an economy more vulnerable to the shocks of our age of insecurity. and at the level of ideas, that, in a nutshell, is the economic story of britain over the past 13 years. the tories have been waiting around for the genteel conditions of the great moderation to return, rather than letting go of a failed ideology. they have refused to reassess the role of government as the careful steward in tough times. all security, growth, and economic stability. because government can, and most, said the

mission. government can't, and must, shape markets, notjust submit to them. government can and must reform our economic institution rather than mop up after the event. and above all, government can and must hold up behind our partnership to business, build shared institutions like a national wealth fund, like an industrial strategy council, like a joint undertaking on skills, new architecture for growth, a new foundation for security, security from tyrants, security from global headwinds, security for working people and businesses. that is secure economics, and no matter what is stored up for us, it will remain our north star. of course, we can't ignore our financial situation, so

while i welcome some of the individual measures in the autumn statement, tax cuts for working people are a good thing, it was also a budget for growth that ended up downgrading growth. and a budget for tax cuts that conferred the highest tax cuts that conferred the highest tax burden since the war. a fiscal slight of hand that showed the government is quite prepared to solve the earth of british prosperity in pursuit of its political strategy. now, prosperity in pursuit of its politicalstrategy. now, idon't think any of you expect me to announce labour spending envelope on the stage here today. i won't. nonetheless, it is already clear that the decisions the government are taken, not to mention their record of over the last 13 years, will constrain what a future labour government can do. i mean, sometimes you have to laugh when they talk

about that note in 2010, because the comparison between 2010 and today is instructive. compared with 2010, now debt is much higher, interest rates are much higher, growth, stagnant, british standing, dismissed, public services on their knees, inflationary pressure serious. taxes are higher than at any time since the war. none of that was true in 2010. seriously, never before has a british government asked its people to pay so much for so little. and thatis to pay so much for so little. and that is why growth is everything. it is notjust the quickest that is why growth is everything. it is not just the quickest way that is why growth is everything. it is notjust the quickest way out of this, it is the only way, the path to public service investment and keeping taxes competitive. it will be a hard road to war, no doubt

about it. and anyone who can expect