the prime minister's ringing round his mps to try to save his rwanda bill ahead of the vote on it next week. tonight — how likely is it go through? how likely is a confidence vote in rishi sunak? and what are the chances of a snap general election? our friday night political panel is here with the famous newsnight whiteboard. also tonight... the people of gaza are looking into the abyss. the international community must do everything possible to end their ordeal. i urge the council to spare no effort to

push for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. the words of the seceratry general of the un urging members of the un security council to vote for a ceasefire in gaza. most did — but the us voted against, and they have a veto. we'll talk live to the us's former middle east peace envoy. plus, are there reasons to be optimistic as cop28 heads into its second week? we have the technologies, and massive amounts of money has been pledged. all of these are good things. we are seeing electric mobility moving fast. good evening. there is an election due within the next 13 months, and with several of the prime minister's five pledges stubbornly unmet, his party is turning in on itself over one of them. against record nhs waiting lists, inflation at double the target of the bank of england, and energy bills going back up next month, different groups of conservative mps are this weekend scrutinising rishi sunak�*s new law on the rwandan deportation plan

to see if they think it will work ahead of a vote on it on tuesday. immmigration — both legal and illegal — is important to voters according to polls, but not as important as the economy and the nhs. this rwanda bill, broadly speaking, risks alienating mr sunak�*s mps on the right of his party, who don't think it goes far enough, and alienating groups on the left of his party, who think it goes too far. last night we brought you the news that the cost of the rwanda scheme has gone up to nearly £300 million — that's double the initial cost. number 10 sources today suggested it wasn't rishi sunak who signed off the extra money. but suella braverman. here's a quick look back at the events of this week. migration to this country is far too high and needs to come down. does your party have a death wish? i think you can actually see | the prime minister is giving a press conference right now- addressing his immigration proposal.

i see two immigration ministers, not one. # over and over. ..# the test. — and i was at the erg last night, they do have this legal star chamber. the conservative party faces| electoral oblivion in a matter of months if we introduce yet another bill destined to fail. i my patience with this has worn thin. joe is here. and we are standing in front of this very expensive —looking white bar because in a moment our panel will because in a moment our panel will be given their predictions, some of what might be happening in the coming weeks and months. first, what's happening behind the scenes of this bill? the what's happening behind the scenes of this bill? , ., of this bill? the government will be rinuain of this bill? the government will be ringing round _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, and _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, and whips, andl of this bill? the government will be l ringing round mps, and whips, and in that spirit i've been doing the same thing this evening. what's important to note is that there are moving parts here, including the legislation itself. one cabinet minister telling me to that if there

are better ideas, we can tweak it. the bill is a working document, it will take advice. some closes could be toughened, others removed. this is a pretty open collaborative town because plenty of mps do not know how they will vote just yet, though number ten when i asked about changing the document said it's important to separate substantial changes from tweaking, tweaking as i was part of the legislative process, something substantial they would not be keen on because they think they're bill is good and strong. and they're bill is good and strong. and the background to all of this, we have this strange sense of brexiteer a deja vu with the european research group's so called star chamber being reconstituted —— brexit deja vu. these legal experts who will in the coming days give their advice on the bill and many on the right of the tory party will listen to them. can rishi sunak _ tory party will listen to them. can rishi sunak bring together probably speaking both the left and right of his party to get behind this bill? some sources and the government to might have told me they think so but the whips don't know and probably

won't for a while. one cabinet minister described what the whips are doing now is letting mps marinate in a stew, think about it, but they may not know until tuesday morning, the day of the vote, how mps are actually voting, and of course in this past week they have not had a huge amount of success injuring government victories, we had that government loss on infected blood. we had to wait for the star chamber to give its legal advice, wait to see how number ten respond, and this source was predicting that, yes, robertjenrick and suella braverman are unlikely to back the government but they will be enough mps from the right and left of the party who are either prepared to abstain orwait party who are either prepared to abstain or wait until the next stage of legislative proceedings, the third reading, to actually give this a free ride through the commons. the lords will be far more difficult. and of course this is not the only thing the pm is worrying about this weekend because also, he is spending his time at number ten preparing for the covid inquiry, he is due in

front of it on monday.- the covid inquiry, he is due in front of it on monday. thank you very much- _ front of it on monday. thank you very much. let's kick— front of it on monday. thank you very much. let's kick around, i front of it on monday. thank you i very much. let's kick around, then, what could happen politically in the coming days and weeks. with phillip blond — director of respublica, which describes itself as an "independent public policy think tank" — and a man who knows the thinking of the �*new conservatives' — those on the right of the party including suella braverman — tim montgomerie, founder of conservativehome website who has advised three conservative leaders, and rachel cunliffe — associate political editor, new statesman. phillip is here, welcome. so let's get your predictions, the rwanda bill, will it go through or fail? get your predictions, the rwanda bill, will it go through orfail? it bill, will it go through or fail? it will fail either in its third reading or in committee stage. imilli reading or in committee stage. will there be a no—confidence vote in rishi sunak? i there be a no-confidence vote in rishi sunak?— rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, rishi sunak? i think in time as a result. yes- _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. 0k, _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when do - rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when do you i rishi sunak? i think in time as a i result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be _ result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a _ result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a general— result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a general election? i result, yes. ok, when do you think| there will be a general election? as there will be a general election? 33 late there will be a general election? is late as possible for the new incumbent, and that i think will be january 25. incumbent, and that i think will be janua 25. i ., ., ~' january 25. who do you think the next prime _ january 25. who do you think the next prime minister _ january 25. who do you think the next prime minister will - january 25. who do you think the next prime minister will be? -

january 25. who do you think the | next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i think _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i think the - next prime minister will be? it�*s —s difficult one but i think the next prime minister will be the one most likely to depress the vote of nigel farage and most likely to be taken seriously by conservative voters on migration, and that is suella braverman.— migration, and that is suella braverman. , braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that _ braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, _ braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, - braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, in i braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, in a l discuss that further, phillip, in a moment. let's bring in tim with his predictions. the rwanda bill, will it pass orfail? i predictions. the rwanda bill, will it pass or fail?— it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's aood it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough — it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for _ it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a _ it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a judge - it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a judge that l good enough for a judge that most conservatives respect, it should be good _ conservatives respect, it should be good enough for the parliamentary parix _ good enough for the parliamentary parix do— good enough for the parliamentary party. do you think there will be a vote of no — party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence _ party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence in _ party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence in mr - party. do you think there will be a | vote of no confidence in mr sunak? party. do you think there will be a i vote of no confidence in mr sunak? i hope not and don't think so. the party— hope not and don't think so. the party is — hope not and don't think so. the party is mad but i don't think it's that mad — party is mad but i don't think it's that mad. i , , ., party is mad but i don't think it's that mad. i , . ., that mad. when is your prediction for the general _ that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? - that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i - that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i think l that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i think it will probably _ for the general election? i think it will probably be _ for the general election? i think it will probably be spring _ for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but - for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but i - for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but i think| will probably be spring but i think it should — will probably be spring but i think it should be earlier, actually, there's— it should be earlier, actually, there's been talk this week of january— there's been talk this week of january election. the longer this parliament goes on, the angry voters are becoming, sol parliament goes on, the angry voters are becoming, so i would like it january— are becoming, so i would like it january but i think it will be spring _ january but i think it will be s-urin. �* ., ., ~ , spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir— spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir starmer. _ spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir starmer. he doesn'tl will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it. _ will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it. we — will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should _ will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should have - will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should have beenl deserve it, we should have been governing — deserve it, we should have been

governing for a decade after 2019 but we _ governing for a decade after 2019 but we have squandered it all. thank ou, tim. but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, _ but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come _ but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on - but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on down, i but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on down, as they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass orfail? i they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass or fail? s they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass or fail? ~' ,, ., ., , or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the _ or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and _ or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right - or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right of i or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right of the | from both the left and right of the party— from both the left and right of the party continued _ from both the left and right of the party continued have _ from both the left and right of the party continued have serious i party continued have serious reservations _ party continued have serious reservations about _ party continued have serious reservations about it, whichl party continued have seriousl reservations about it, which it sounds like _ reservations about it, which it sounds like they— reservations about it, which it sounds like they might, i reservations about it, which it. sounds like they might, there is a realistic— sounds like they might, there is a realistic chance _ sounds like they might, there is a realistic chance the _ realistic chance the government could _ realistic chance the government could sense the _ realistic chance the government could sense the feet _ realistic chance the government could sense the feet and - realistic chance the government could sense the feet and in fact| could sense the feet and in fact pull the — could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before _ could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it _ could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it even i could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it even gets| could sense the feet and in fact i pull the bill before it even gets to vote _ pull the bill before it even gets to vote. ., �* , , vote. that's interesting, we will talk further _ vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about _ vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that - vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that in - vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that in a i vote. that's interesting, we will- talk further about that in a moment. will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak? i will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak?— will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak? ~' ., rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they have i rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they have to l the confidence vote, they have to .et the confidence vote, they have to get enough — the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to _ the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to get - the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to get across i the confidence vote, they have to i get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that _ get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that happens i get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that happens when there _ line, sometimes that happens when there is— line, sometimes that happens when there is a strong _ line, sometimes that happens when there is a strong contender and i there is a strong contender and they know— there is a strong contender and they know who _ there is a strong contender and they know who the — there is a strong contender and they know who the successor will - there is a strong contender and they know who the successor will be, i know who the successor will be, sometimes _ know who the successor will be, sometimes it— know who the successor will be, sometimes it happens— know who the successor will be, i sometimes it happens by accident with no— sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so— sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so there isn't - sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so there isn't a planj

with no plan, so there isn't a plan at the _ with no plan, so there isn't a plan at the moment but _ with no plan, so there isn't a plan i at the moment but sometimes mps do .et at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit _ at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit overexcited. _ at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit overexcited.— get a bit overexcited. general electric bought _ get a bit overexcited. general| electric bought your prediction get a bit overexcited. general i electric bought your prediction for the time in?— the time in? almost as late as possible, maybe _ the time in? almost as late as possible, maybe not quite i possible, maybe not quite 2025 because — possible, maybe not quite 2025 because that looks _ possible, maybe not quite 2025 because that looks desperate i possible, maybe not quite 2025. because that looks desperate but not in the spring — because that looks desperate but not in the spring-— in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister _ in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister will - in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister will be? i in the spring. if you do think the i next prime minister will be? barring rush invading _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the united _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the united kingdom, | rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer~ _ rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer.— rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further — keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with _ keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with rachel, _ keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with rachel, phillip i talk further with rachel, phillip and tim about some of their predictions, some of them quite extraordinary predictions. thank you very much for thinking through those questions. philipp lahm, let's start with you, you think the next prime minister will be suella braverman, —— phillip blond, talk us through the scenario that might lead to that. �* , ., s the scenario that might lead to that. �*, ., ,, ., ., that. let's talk about what the conservatives _ that. let's talk about what the conservatives need. they i that. let's talk about what the | conservatives need. they most that. let's talk about what the i conservatives need. they most need those who voted for them in 2019 to vote for them again. they are twice as valuable as any other voters because of the distribution of the vote. the prime minister, or the candidate, who is most likely to win for them is the one who is closest to their most pressing concerns. migration. who would those voters take most seriously on migration? or do they think would deliver on it? but what is the mechanism that gets to her being the next prime

minister?— minister? once you have a no-confidence _ minister? once you have a no-confidence vote - minister? once you have a no-confidence vote and i minister? once you have a| no-confidence vote and you minister? once you have a i no-confidence vote and you get minister? once you have a - no-confidence vote and you get over no—confidence vote and you get over your 53 letters, then you have the actual vote, but if... your 53 letters, then you have the actualvote, but if... it your 53 letters, then you have the actualvote, but if...— actualvote, but if... it doesn't mean. even — actualvote, but if... it doesn't mean, even if you _ actualvote, but if... it doesn't mean, even if you got to i actual vote, but if... it doesn't i mean, even if you got to 53 letters, it doesn't mean those... mean, even if you got to 53 letters, it doesn't mean those. . .— it doesn't mean those... but if over 100 votes are _ it doesn't mean those... but if over 100 votes are cast _ it doesn't mean those... but if over 100 votes are cast against - it doesn't mean those... but if over 100 votes are cast against the i it doesn't mean those... but if over| 100 votes are cast against the prime minister, ie not having confidence in the prime minister, he will essentially have to step aside. once you have that position, then you have new leadership election. now, we don't yet know the rules for that and it could be either the rules that were there for a liz truss, or the longer selection rules. but i think what will be most pressing on conservative mps is who is most likely to depress the vote of nigel farage when he comes back from the “uncle? farage when he comes back from the jungle? fik. and who will most jungle? ok. and who will most likely appeal to the conservative voters of

2019? and i think it is between braverman, and probably penny mordaunt, and i think it will be suella braverman.— suella braverman. phillip is right that it is fear of _ suella braverman. phillip is right that it is fear of nigel _ suella braverman. phillip is right that it is fear of nigel farage - that it is fear of nigel farage that is behind all of this, the tories are very— is behind all of this, the tories are very worried that if he comes back— are very worried that if he comes back from the jungle and stands against — back from the jungle and stands against them, but it actually goes from _ against them, but it actually goes from a _ against them, but it actually goes from a defeat to a disaster. are you say stand against _ from a defeat to a disaster. are you say stand against them, you - say stand against them, you mean reform candidates put up in their constituencies?— constituencies? exactly, last time there was a _ constituencies? exactly, last time there was a deal to _ constituencies? exactly, last time there was a deal to be done - there was a deal to be done nigel farage _ there was a deal to be done nigel farage wanted brexit to be put over the line, there is no deal to be done _ the line, there is no deal to be done this time. but where i disagree with phillip, the tory party already looks like — with phillip, the tory party already looks like we hate each other. if we get rid _ looks like we hate each other. if we get rid of another leader, someone who is_ get rid of another leader, someone who is doing a decentjob in difficult _ who is doing a decentjob in difficult circumstances, without an obvious _ difficult circumstances, without an obvious successor, we begin tojust look like the nasty party of old. and it _ look like the nasty party of old. and it is — look like the nasty party of old. and it is ridiculous to change the prime _ and it is ridiculous to change the prime minister again. you lose all sorts— prime minister again. you lose all sorts of— prime minister again. you lose all sorts of democratic accountability of how _ sorts of democratic accountability of how people voted in an election. we would _ of how people voted in an election. we would look ridiculous, and it doesn't — we would look ridiculous, and it doesn't mean the party won't do it but i _ doesn't mean the party won't do it but i think— doesn't mean the party won't do it but i think they would... let doesn't mean the party won't do it but i think they would. . .— but i think they would... let me brina in

but i think they would... let me bring in rachel, _ but i think they would. .. let me bring in rachel, if— but i think they would... let me bring in rachel, if i _ but i think they would... let me bring in rachel, ifi may. - but i think they would... let me bring in rachel, ifi may. you i but i think they would... let me i bring in rachel, ifi may. you think bring in rachel, if i may. you think this rwanda bill could potentially be pulled. talk us through that, how you get that. 50 be pulled. talk us through that, how you get that-— you get that. so it's 'ust one scenario to h you get that. so it's 'ust one scenario to think_ you get that. so it'sjust one scenario to think about. - you get that. so it'sjust one scenario to think about. the | you get that. so it'sjust one - scenario to think about. the thing about— scenario to think about. the thing about this — scenario to think about. the thing about this bill — scenario to think about. the thing about this bill is _ scenario to think about. the thing about this bill is that _ scenario to think about. the thing about this bill is that it _ scenario to think about. the thing about this bill is that it sits - scenario to think about. the thing about this bill is that it sits in- about this bill is that it sits in this— about this bill is that it sits in this very. _ about this bill is that it sits in this very. very— about this bill is that it sits in this very, very narrow - about this bill is that it sits in this very, very narrow slither| this very, very narrow slither within— this very, very narrow slither within venn— this very, very narrow slither within venn diagram - this very, very narrow slither within venn diagram of - this very, very narrow slither| within venn diagram of being this very, very narrow slither - within venn diagram of being tough enough _ within venn diagram of being tough enough for— within venn diagram of being tough enough for those _ within venn diagram of being tough enough for those on _ within venn diagram of being tough enough for those on the _ within venn diagram of being tough enough for those on the right - within venn diagram of being tough enough for those on the right of. within venn diagram of being tough| enough for those on the right of the party, _ enough for those on the right of the party. suella — enough for those on the right of the party, suella braverman— enough for those on the right of the party, suella braverman and - enough for those on the right of the party, suella braverman and robert jenrick_ party, suella braverman and robert jenrick who — party, suella braverman and robert jenrick who obviously _ party, suella braverman and robert jenrick who obviously resigned - party, suella braverman and robert jenrick who obviously resigned over| jenrick who obviously resigned over it dont— jenrick who obviously resigned over it don't think — jenrick who obviously resigned over it don't think it's — jenrick who obviously resigned over it don't think it's tough _ jenrick who obviously resigned over it don't think it's tough enough, - it don't think it's tough enough, but it— it don't think it's tough enough, but it has— it don't think it's tough enough, but it has to _ it don't think it's tough enough, but it has to be _ it don't think it's tough enough, but it has to be adhering - it don't think it's tough enough, i but it has to be adhering enough it don't think it's tough enough, . but it has to be adhering enough to international— but it has to be adhering enough to international law— but it has to be adhering enough to international law and _ but it has to be adhering enough to international law and to the - but it has to be adhering enough to international law and to the uk's i international law and to the uk's other— international law and to the uk's other commitments _ international law and to the uk's other commitments that- international law and to the uk's other commitments that the - international law and to the uk's| other commitments that the one nation _ other commitments that the one nation group _ other commitments that the one nation group of _ other commitments that the one nation group of conservatives, . other commitments that the one . nation group of conservatives, who are larger— nation group of conservatives, who are larger within _ nation group of conservatives, who are larger within the party - nation group of conservatives, who are larger within the party can - nation group of conservatives, who are larger within the party can also| are larger within the party can also feel comfortable _ are larger within the party can also feel comfortable voting _ are larger within the party can also feel comfortable voting for- are larger within the party can also feel comfortable voting for it. - are larger within the party can also feel comfortable voting for it. if i feel comfortable voting for it. if you make — feel comfortable voting for it. if you make it— feel comfortable voting for it. if you make it tougher— feel comfortable voting for it. if you make it tougher you - feel comfortable voting for it. if you make it tougher you lose i feel comfortable voting for it. if i you make it tougher you lose those on the _ you make it tougher you lose those on the left, — you make it tougher you lose those on the left, if you _ you make it tougher you lose those on the left, if you make _ you make it tougher you lose those on the left, if you make it- you make it tougher you lose those on the left, if you make it more i on the left, if you make it more towards — on the left, if you make it more towards international— on the left, if you make it more towards international law, i on the left, if you make it more towards international law, you. on the left, if you make it more i towards international law, you lose those _ towards international law, you lose those on _ towards international law, you lose those on the right. _ towards international law, you lose those on the right. so _ towards international law, you lose those on the right. so if— towards international law, you lose those on the right. so if the - those on the right. so if the government— those on the right. so if the government doesn't- those on the right. so if the government doesn't think l those on the right. so if the government doesn't think it those on the right. so if the i government doesn't think it can those on the right. so if the - government doesn't think it can hit that sweet— government doesn't think it can hit that sweet spot. _ government doesn't think it can hit that sweet spot, and _ government doesn't think it can hit that sweet spot, and really, - government doesn't think it can hit that sweet spot, and really, you i that sweet spot, and really, you only need — that sweet spot, and really, you only need 28— that sweet spot, and really, you only need 28 mps _ that sweet spot, and really, you only need 28 mps rebelled, i that sweet spot, and really, you only need 28 mps rebelled, in l that sweet spot, and really, you i only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have _ only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have it— only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have it fail. — only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have it fail, then _ only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have it fail, then i _ only need 28 mps rebelled, in order to have it fail, then i think- to have it fail, then i think rather than _ to have it fail, then i think rather than risk— to have it fail, then i think rather than risk absolutely _ to have it fail, then i think rather than risk absolutely humiliating i than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, — than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they— than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they will— than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they will kick _ than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they will kick it - than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they will kick it into i than risk absolutely humiliating defeat, they will kick it into the long _ defeat, they will kick it into the long grass _ defeat, they will kick it into the long grass— defeat, they will kick it into the long grass. defeat, they will kick it into the [on rass. �* , ., ., long grass. because that defeat with essentially a — long grass. because that defeat with essentially a no-confidence - long grass. because that defeat with

essentially a no-confidence vote, i long grass. because that defeat with essentially a no-confidence vote, doj essentially a no—confidence vote, do we think that's fair? i essentially a no-confidence vote, do we think that's fair?— we think that's fair? i don't. .. i think it certainly _ we think that's fair? i don't. .. i think it certainly would - we think that's fair? i don't. .. i think it certainly would lead i we think that's fair? i don't. .. i think it certainly would lead to | we think that's fair? i don't. .. i | think it certainly would lead to a no—confidence vote, and then... and then the party's got a choice. the real difficulty for those on the right is, can they unify enough to get it over the 100 votes, which is, you know, the de facto line which party becomes ungovernable and the prime minister would step aside. but as rachel points out, it's likely to also break on the left as well. there are plenty of tory mps on the left who think the present position is unsustainable. where i differ from tim is, is it better to be embarrassed or is it better to be alive? because at the moment, the conservatives... alive? because at the moment, the conservatives. . .— conservatives... you could be embarrassed _ conservatives... you could be embarrassed and _ conservatives... you could be embarrassed and dead, i conservatives... you could be j embarrassed and dead, that's conservatives... you could be i embarrassed and dead, that's the conservatives... you could be - embarrassed and dead, that's the way we are _ embarrassed and dead, that's the way we are heading! at embarrassed and dead, that's the way we are heading!— we are heading! at the moment, we are heading — we are heading! at the moment, we are heading for— we are heading! at the moment, we are heading for electoral _ are heading for electoral annihilation, we are heading for a brick wall, really fast, and those who argue in the car that it could get worse are less and less convincing as they wool gets nearer.

and somebody could get in that car and pull the wheel and turn the wheel. that is a compelling argument mps about to lose their seat. you said rishi sunak— mps about to lose their seat. you said rishi sunak is... can't remember the exact words you used, but you said... he remember the exact words you used, but you said- - -— remember the exact words you used, but you said- - -_ but you said... he is doing a decent 'ob. he is but you said... he is doing a decent job- he is doing _ but you said... he is doing a decent job. he is doing a _ but you said... he is doing a decent job. he is doing a decent _ job. he is doing a decent 'ob. everything i job. he is doing a decent 'ob. everything he is i job. he is doing a decent 'ob. everything he is tried i job. he is doing a decent job. j everything he is tried to reset job. he is doing a decent job. i everything he is tried to reset the dial, whether it's net zero or the convert speech or the autumn statement, the polls are still 20 percentage points behind. —— the conference speech. do you accept phillip's argument that someone needs to take hold of the steering wheel? ., , ., �* needs to take hold of the steering wheel? ., i. �* �*, wheel? no, you're right, he's definitely _ wheel? no, you're right, he's definitely unhappy _ wheel? no, you're right, he's definitely unhappy now, i wheel? no, you're right, he's definitely unhappy now, he's| wheel? no, you're right, he's i definitely unhappy now, he's always had a _ definitely unhappy now, he's always had a little — definitely unhappy now, he's always had a little bit of a temper, but you know. _ had a little bit of a temper, but you know, i understand, his wife never— you know, i understand, his wife never really _ you know, i understand, his wife never really enjoyed being in downing street, i think he is beginning to hit it that we saw that erupt. _ beginning to hit it that we saw that erupt, really, with his cancellation of the _ erupt, really, with his cancellation of the meeting with the greek prime minister~ _ of the meeting with the greek prime minister. and so though i'm not i think— minister. and so though i'm not i think there's a chance we might, and ithink— think there's a chance we might, and

i think it's _ think there's a chance we might, and i think it's linked to what rachel was saying about not getting through parliament, turning immigration almost _ parliament, turning immigration almost into an election issue, changing _ almost into an election issue, changing labour back on that issue, it's a high—risk strategy but there are no— it's a high—risk strategy but there are no good bets for the conservative party on this issue. how— conservative party on this issue. how are — conservative party on this issue. how are labour going to be approaching this? are they ready for approaching this? are they ready for a snap general election?— a snap general election? firstly, es, i a snap general election? firstly, yes. i think _ a snap general election? firstly, yes. i think they _ a snap general election? firstly, yes, i think they are _ a snap general election? firstly, yes, i think they are ready i a snap general election? firstly, yes, i think they are ready and l a snap general election? firstly, i yes, i think they are ready and they can see _ yes, i think they are ready and they can see the — yes, i think they are ready and they can see the polls _ yes, i think they are ready and they can see the polls and _ yes, i think they are ready and they can see the polls and they - yes, i think they are ready and they can see the polls and they are i yes, i think they are ready and theyl can see the polls and they are ready to go. _ can see the polls and they are ready to go. but— can see the polls and they are ready to go. but on— can see the polls and they are ready to go. but on the _ can see the polls and they are ready to go, but on the point— can see the polls and they are ready to go, but on the point about - can see the polls and they are readyl to go, but on the point about making it an immigration _ to go, but on the point about making it an immigration election, _ it an immigration election, immigration _ it an immigration election, immigration is _ it an immigration election, immigration is a _ it an immigration election, immigration is a really i it an immigration election, i immigration is a really difficult topic— immigration is a really difficult topic in— immigration is a really difficult topic in a — immigration is a really difficult topic in a way— immigration is a really difficult topic in a way for— immigration is a really difficult topic in a way for the - immigration is a really difficult i topic in a way for the conservatives topic in a way for the conservatives to fight— topic in a way for the conservatives to fight on— topic in a way for the conservatives to fight on because _ topic in a way for the conservatives to fight on because even _ topic in a way for the conservatives to fight on because even though i topic in a way for the conservatives to fight on because even though iti to fight on because even though it is a high _ to fight on because even though it is a high salience _ to fight on because even though it is a high salience issue, its - to fight on because even though it is a high salience issue, its high . is a high salience issue, its high salience — is a high salience issue, its high salience issue _ is a high salience issue, its high salience issue primarily- is a high salience issue, its high salience issue primarily amongl salience issue primarily among conservative _ salience issue primarily among conservative voters, _ salience issue primarily among conservative voters, if - salience issue primarily amongl conservative voters, if you look at swing _ conservative voters, if you look at swing voters and _ conservative voters, if you look at swing voters and you look - conservative voters, if you look at swing voters and you look at i conservative voters, if you look at i swing voters and you look at labour voters. _ swing voters and you look at labour voters. they— swing voters and you look at labour voters. they are _ swing voters and you look at labour voters, they are less _ swing voters and you look at labour voters, they are less concerned, i voters, they are less concerned, they— voters, they are less concerned, they are — voters, they are less concerned, they are much _ voters, they are less concerned, they are much more _ voters, they are less concerned, they are much more concerned i voters, they are less concerned, i they are much more concerned with they are much more concerned with the state _ they are much more concerned with the state of— they are much more concerned with the state of the _ they are much more concerned with the state of the economy, - they are much more concerned with the state of the economy, the - they are much more concerned with the state of the economy, the costi the state of the economy, the cost of living _ the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis _ the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis and _ the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis and the _ the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis and the nhs, - the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis and the nhs, all- the state of the economy, the cost of living crisis and the nhs, all of. of living crisis and the nhs, all of which _ of living crisis and the nhs, all of which are — of living crisis and the nhs, all of which are issues _ of living crisis and the nhs, all of which are issues that _ which are issues that the conservatives— which are issues that the conservatives are - which are issues that the conservatives are also i which are issues that the - conservatives are also struggling on, conservatives are also struggling on. so _ conservatives are also struggling on. so there _ conservatives are also struggling on. so there is— conservatives are also struggling on. so there is a_ conservatives are also struggling on, so there is a risk— conservatives are also struggling on, so there is a risk you - conservatives are also struggling on, so there is a risk you call- conservatives are also struggling on, so there is a risk you call ani on, so there is a risk you call an election— on, so there is a risk you call an election and _ on, so there is a risk you call an election and the _ on, so there is a risk you call an election and the conservatives i on, so there is a risk you call an . election and the conservatives say, bacchus. _ election and the conservatives say, bacchus. we — election and the conservatives say, bacchus. we are _ election and the conservatives say, bacchus, we are the _ election and the conservatives say, bacchus, we are the only— election and the conservatives say, bacchus, we are the only ones - election and the conservatives say, bacchus, we are the only ones who| bacchus, we are the only ones who can take _ bacchus, we are the only ones who can take control— bacchus, we are the only ones who can take control of— bacchus, we are the only ones who can take control of immigration, i bacchus, we are the only ones who. can take control of immigration, and most _ can take control of immigration, and most of— can take control of immigration, and most of the — can take control of immigration, and most of the country _ can take control of immigration, and most of the country go... _ can take control of immigration, and most of the country go... the - can take control of immigration, and most of the country go... the record would suggest _ most of the country go... the record would suggest they _ most of the country go... the record would suggest they haven't - most of the country go... the record would suggest they haven't taken i would suggest they haven't taken control of either legal or illegal... control of either legal or

illegal- - -_ control of either legal or illegal. . . control of either legal or illeaal. .. , ,, . . , illegal... remembe, keir starmer was an uinu illegal... remembe, keir starmer was aruauin for illegal... remembe, keir starmer was arguing for free _ illegal... remembe, keir starmer was arguing for free movement _ illegal... remembe, keir starmer was arguing for free movement across - illegal... remembe, keir starmer was arguing for free movement across the | arguing for free movement across the eu untit— arguing for free movement across the eu until recently. labour are not solid _ eu until recently. labour are not solid on — eu until recently. labour are not solid on this issue. but eu until recently. labour are not solid on this issue.— solid on this issue. but they are solid on this issue. but they are solid on this issue. but they are solid on the _ solid on this issue. but they are solid on the economy _ solid on this issue. but they are solid on the economy and - solid on this issue. but they are solid on the economy and nhs, | solid on this issue. but they are - solid on the economy and nhs, which is where _ solid on the economy and nhs, which is where most — solid on the economy and nhs, which is where most voters _ solid on the economy and nhs, which is where most voters actually - solid on the economy and nhs, which is where most voters actually care - is where most voters actually care about _ is where most voters actually care about. . �* . . is where most voters actually care about. ., �* , ., ., about. that's an argument where tories shouldn't _ about. that's an argument where tories shouldn't allow— about. that's an argument where tories shouldn't allow those - about. that's an argument where tories shouldn't allow those to i about. that's an argument where | tories shouldn't allow those to be the issues — tories shouldn't allow those to be the issues. we tories shouldn't allow those to be the issues-— tories shouldn't allow those to be the issues. ~ ., �* the issues. we don't get to choose the issues. we don't get to choose the issues. we don't get to choose the issues where _ the issues. we don't get to choose the issues where you _ the issues. we don't get to choose the issues where you call- the issues. we don't get to choose the issues where you call an - the issues where you call an election! _ the issues where you call an election! ~ the issues where you call an election!— the issues where you call an election!_ this i the issues where you call an election!_ this is | the issues where you call an i election!_ this is an election! we can try. this is an election where _ election! we can try. this is an election where the _ election! we can try. this is an | election where the conservative party are either three elections away from ever governing away or an election from ever governing again, and the most important group of voters for them are the conservative voters for them are the conservative voters who voted for them in 2019, and migration is the issue for those voters, and once again, they will... nobody will believe the present prime minister saying he will control migration because the great promise of brexit has failed, we massively expanded migration, they might, however, believe somebody who is seen as a martyr to that cause, who could deliver on migration, and thatis who could deliver on migration, and that is really, how badly will the conservatives lose? that's the

question?— conservatives lose? that's the cuestion? ., , , , question? you're oversimplifying, i like suella braverman, _ question? you're oversimplifying, i like suella braverman, she - question? you're oversimplifying, i like suella braverman, she is - question? you're oversimplifying, i like suella braverman, she is a - like suella braverman, she is a decent — like suella braverman, she is a decent person, contrary to some of her public— decent person, contrary to some of her public wrecked protection but she would be a nightmare amply waltzes, — she would be a nightmare amply waltzes, we would lose seats to the liberal _ waltzes, we would lose seats to the liberal democrats in the south, she may reinforce us in the north but she would — may reinforce us in the north but she would turn off... i think that's the calculation _ she would turn off... i think that's the calculation that _ she would turn off... i think that's the calculation that lay _ she would turn off... i think that's the calculation that lay behind - the calculation that lay behind bringing david cameron back but there is no real basis for it, and i think... ., , . , . , think... the tories and the seats are worried- _ think... the tories and the seats are worried. everybody - think... the tories and the seats are worried. everybody is - think... the tories and the seats. are worried. everybody is worried. i'm not are worried. everybody is worried. i'm not even _ are worried. everybody is worried. i'm not even sure _ are worried. everybody is worried. i'm not even sure she _ are worried. everybody is worried. i'm not even sure she would - are worried. everybody is worried. i i'm not even sure she would make are worried. everybody is worried. i i'm not even sure she would make it to the _ i'm not even sure she would make it to the final— i'm not even sure she would make it to the final try. _ i'm not even sure she would make it to the final try, we _ i'm not even sure she would make it to the final try, we don't— i'm not even sure she would make it to the final try, we don't even- i'm not even sure she would make it to the final try, we don't even know| to the final try, we don't even know what _ to the final try, we don't even know what the _ to the final try, we don't even know what the rules — to the final try, we don't even know what the rules are _ to the final try, we don't even know what the rules are but _ to the final try, we don't even know what the rules are but if _ to the final try, we don't even know what the rules are but if it - to the final try, we don't even know what the rules are but if it follows l what the rules are but if it follows previous _ what the rules are but if it follows previous ones _ what the rules are but if it follows previous ones were _ what the rules are but if it follows previous ones were its _ what the rules are but if it follows previous ones were its tory - what the rules are but if it follows previous ones were its tory mps i what the rules are but if it follows i previous ones were its tory mps who whittle _ previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it _ previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down — previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down to _ previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down to the _ previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down to the final— previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down to the final two - previous ones were its tory mps who whittle it down to the final two and i whittle it down to the final two and then it _ whittle it down to the final two and then it goes — whittle it down to the final two and then it goes to members, - whittle it down to the final two and then it goes to members, you've i whittle it down to the final two and i then it goes to members, you've got a number— then it goes to members, you've got a number of— then it goes to members, you've got a number of tory— then it goes to members, you've got a number of tory mps, _ then it goes to members, you've got. a number of tory mps, kemi badenoch bein- a number of tory mps, kemi badenoch being the— a number of tory mps, kemi badenoch being the one — a number of tory mps, kemi badenoch being the one that— a number of tory mps, kemi badenoch being the one that immediately- being the one that immediately sbrihgs — being the one that immediately sbrihgs to— being the one that immediately springs to mind _ being the one that immediately springs to mind but _ being the one that immediately springs to mind but also - being the one that immediately springs to mind but also now. being the one that immediately- springs to mind but also now robert jenrick— springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who — springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who will _ springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who will be _ springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who will be fighting - springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who will be fighting for- springs to mind but also now robert jenrick who will be fighting for the i jenrick who will be fighting for the position— jenrick who will be fighting for the position of— jenrick who will be fighting for the position of candidate _ jenrick who will be fighting for the position of candidate of _ jenrick who will be fighting for the position of candidate of the - jenrick who will be fighting for the position of candidate of the right i position of candidate of the right with, _ position of candidate of the right with. say, — position of candidate of the right with. say. penny— position of candidate of the right with, say, penny mordaunt - position of candidate of the right with, say, penny mordaunt or. position of candidate of the right - with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly— with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as— with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as the — with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as the candidate _ with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as the candidate of - with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as the candidate of the - with, say, penny mordaunt orjames cleverly as the candidate of the 0ne| cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, _ cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the — cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the left _ cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the left group, _ cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the left group, and - cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the left group, and so - cleverly as the candidate of the one nation, the left group, and so i - nation, the left group, and so i think— nation, the left group, and so i think you — nation, the left group, and so i think you could _ nation, the left group, and so i think you could see _ nation, the left group, and so i

think you could see a _ nation, the left group, and so i think you could see a situation, suella — think you could see a situation, suella braverman— think you could see a situation, suella braverman is— think you could see a situation, suella braverman is divisive - think you could see a situation, i suella braverman is divisive even within— suella braverman is divisive even within the — suella braverman is divisive even within the tory— suella braverman is divisive even within the tory right, she - suella braverman is divisive even within the tory right, she is not. within the tory right, she is not the kind — within the tory right, she is not the kind of— within the tory right, she is not the kind of figure _ within the tory right, she is not the kind of figure who - within the tory right, she is not the kind of figure who can - within the tory right, she is not- the kind of figure who can unite the party, _ the kind of figure who can unite the party. whatever— the kind of figure who can unite the party, whatever her— the kind of figure who can unite the party, whatever her other - the kind of figure who can unite the i party, whatever her other assets may everybody is divisive within a hugely divided party.- hugely divided party. i think conservative mps, - hugely divided party. i think i conservative mps, when faced with that choice, might _ conservative mps, when faced with that choice, might end up- that choice, might end up choosing to me and — that choice, might end up choosing to me and penny— that choice, might end up choosing to me and penny mordaunt- that choice, might end up choosing to me and penny mordaunt to go i to me and penny mordaunt to go to the membership and _ to me and penny mordaunt to go to the membership and so— to me and penny mordaunt to go to the membership and so swell- the membership and so swell apartment— the membership and so swell apartment when— the membership and so swell apartment when you - the membership and so swell apartment when you get - the membership and so swell apartment when you get a . the membership and so swell- apartment when you get a chance. de apartment when you get a chance. dc: so are apartment when you get a chance. so are all coherent positions, but if you look at the last leadership debate was designed by four or five votes and this is all coherent point of the strategy for candidates from the right is to unify the right because they know that the most right—wing candidate getting to the membership wins. {lilia right-wing candidate getting to the membership wins.— right-wing candidate getting to the membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there, membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there. thank — membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there, thank you _ membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there, thank you very _ membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there, thank you very much - membership wins. 0k, we must leave it there, thank you very much for - it there, thank you very much for giving up your friday evening to talk to our audience, we appreciate it. "a humanitarian nightmare has engulfed the people of gaza" — the words of antonio guterres, the secretary—general of the united nations today, as he urged members of the un security council to vote

for an immediate ceasefire after weeks of war. well, tonight, that resolution for a ceasefire failed because it was vetoed by the us. the uk abstained. yet the us secretary of state antony blinken has urged israel to do more to protect civilians, saying there is a gap" between its promises and the reality on the ground. let's speak now to the former us envoy for middle east peace between 2014 and 2017, frank lowenstein. thank you for talking to a point at the us vetoing this resolution but do you detect a shift in their position towards israel? i do you detect a shift in their position towards israel? i think that we are _ position towards israel? i think that we are on _ position towards israel? i think that we are on a _ position towards israel? i think that we are on a collision - position towards israel? i think| that we are on a collision course with the israelis right now, if they don't change their behaviour with respect to civilian casualties and humanitarian assistance, i will and increasingly public breach between the united states and israel point it not surprising we would be a resolution calling for a ceasefire, we've been very clear on that but

there is a separate issue which is israel, if they're doing enough to protect civilians and i think it is the positions of the us they are not an overtime they will be coming under increasing pressure to make that clear publicly. hour under increasing pressure to make that clear publicly.— under increasing pressure to make that clear publicly. how much time mi . ht the that clear publicly. how much time might the us _ that clear publicly. how much time might the us give _ that clear publicly. how much time might the us give israel? - that clear publicly. how much time might the us give israel? i - that clear publicly. how much time might the us give israel? i think. might the us give israel? i think the israelis _ might the us give israel? i think the israelis are _ might the us give israel? i think the israelis are planning - might the us give israel? i think the israelis are planning for- might the us give israel? i think the israelis are planning for this | the israelis are planning for this stage of the operation to last until about the end of january. from what i've read, the us as the end of december more in mind sol i've read, the us as the end of december more in mind so i think you will see over the course of the next few weeks, depending on how the israelis act in terms of their military operations, i think you will see increasingly tough rhetoric. already the president has said that humanitarian assistance is urgently needed, you have heard a secretary blinken say it is imperative israel do more to protect civilians and secretary austin sake heading towards a strategic defeat, that's very tough language from us publicly but the question is at what point will be start backing up words with actions by allowing security council resolutions to go through? and also in the us congress there is a movement afoot to conditioned military assistance on is really

compliance with international humanitarian law and server with pushback on that but over time i think president biden will come under increasing pressure from the left in the us to consider that kind of outcome. left in the us to consider that kind of outcome-— of outcome. i would ask about the imaaes of of outcome. i would ask about the images of palestinian _ of outcome. i would ask about the images of palestinian men - of outcome. i would ask about the | images of palestinian men stripped with their hands tied behind their backs and kneeling on the ground. bbc staff have geo— located the video footage to a place and piloting diplomats say these are savage images invoking humanity's darkest times and the israeli army says only that suspects were being interrogated. when you saw that footage, what did you think? it reminded me a bit of abra great and i think it's tremendously unhelpful to the israelis and the usn is a difference between the top of actions you might take on the ground to against militants and detain and interrogate those who have been captured but to release images like that i think send a message to the

world, to the region, that israel is degrading and humility in palestinians and i would be surprised if the idf does not take some action is to make sure those kind of photographs don't come out again. kind of photographs don't come out aaain. �* . . kind of photographs don't come out aaain. �* , , ., again. after this is over, whether it be the end _ again. after this is over, whether it be the end of _ again. after this is over, whether it be the end of this _ again. after this is over, whether it be the end of this month - again. after this is over, whether it be the end of this month or- it be the end of this month or january or february, whenever, what will be acceptable, do you think, to the us in terms of the rebuilding of gaza and the running of gaza in the future? i gaza and the running of gaza in the future? ~ . gaza and the running of gaza in the future? ,, . , future? i think all these conversations _ future? i think all these conversations about - future? i think all these i conversations about the future? i think all these - conversations about the day after assume there will be an end to the military operation and then a new era of reconstruction beginning. my senseis era of reconstruction beginning. my sense is that israel will not have achieved the objective of destroying the hamas military capabilities any time of the next few months and that phase of the operation is over they will get a different phase where there is less intense combat but nonetheless still a threat from hamas so i think the days in which can talk about post—occupation governments in gaza, when you can talk about reconstruction, are quite a ways off in the future. i really

think, the idea that we will do negotiations around a two state solution at the end of this process, i don't think that is where the israelis will be at the end of this, israelis will be at the end of this, i think the situation on the ground from a humanitarian perspective will make it very difficult for the saudis and other arab countries to entertain those kind of discussions with the israelis punters i think we would like to see the palestinian authority come into gaza when this war is over. that will take a very long time with the pa in a position to take on any meaningful responsibility is there so i think we are looking at a year or two before those issues become really relevant in terms of the us policy. 0k, relevant in terms of the us policy. ok, and how many more palestinian civilians will be dead by then? when you were on the programme on the 9th of october, you talked about potentially, in your view, 10,000-20,000 potentially, in your view, i0,000—20,000 gazans might die in this conflict. we are nearly at that now. . this conflict. we are nearly at that now. , ., ~ . , . now. yes, i do think that since the israelis resumed _ now. yes, i do think that since the israelis resumed military - now. yes, i do think that since the l israelis resumed military operations one week ago there has been about

3000 casualties on the ground of. so the rate of civilian casualties really hasn't changed and if that continues on for the next excitement eight weeks which is what the israelis are talking about, you are talking about 30,000 palestinian civilians killed and that is just not a sustainable thing for the israelis and not sustainable at all for the us so i think that's why we are focused so strongly in trying to persuade the israelis to take a very different approach when it comes to civilian casualties and humanitarian assistance. . ~' , ., civilian casualties and humanitarian assistance. . ,, , ., , . civilian casualties and humanitarian assistance. . ,, , . ., assistance. thank you very much for our time assistance. thank you very much for your time this _ assistance. thank you very much for your time this evening, _ assistance. thank you very much for your time this evening, we - your time this evening, we appreciate it. is cop28 moving towards an agreement? at the world's most important climate meeting, hosted in dubai by the united arab emirates, one of the world's top ten oil producers, today the un climate agency published a new draft of its cop28 agreement, which included a range of options for the future use of fossil fuels, including phasing them out completely. some of the biggest oil and gas producing—countries — like the uae and norway — are in favour, while others, including saudi arabia and russia, are opposed, and the head of opec, the group of oil—producing states, is tonight urging his

members to stand firm. i've been speaking to the un's executive director of the united nations environment programme, inger andersen. i began by asking her if it is important to acknowledge the efforts that countries are making to reduce global emissions. now i'm the eternal optimist, otherwise i wouldn't be working in this, but it's also myjob to hold a mirror up what the science says, what the data says, and not to be pollyannish about this. because the reality is that we're doing good steps, but we have to go faster and faster is right there. we have the technologies. a massive amount of money has been pledged. all of these are good things. we're seeing e—mobility moving fast, electric mobility. we're seeing buildings and construction being more leaning in on smart design, passive cooling, passive heating, these kind of things, to ensure that we can move closer to net zero building and retrofitting. so there's lots that is happening,

as you rightly say, but we need to do more. that's kind of my mantra right here. the president of cop28 has today urged nations to, quote, get the job done. obviously, there's been a lot of discussion about phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels. what is your instinct as to what cop is going to agree? ok, so i don't have a crystal ball, and i try not to get involved in prepositions, but what is out or down? clearly, the secretary—general of the united nations has made it abundantly clear that hydrocarbons, coal, gas and oil, in the long run, cannot be part of our collective future, that hydrocarbons are an existential threat, that the climate catastrophes that we are seeing on our tv screens every night and in our newspapers are coming to us at ever greater intensity, with ever greater frequency.

80 plus days that broke the heat record this present year and so on. so the reality is that the adaptation bill, the loss and damage bill, is getting higher. that's why it is critical that we move and that we phase out fossil fuels. and it's kind of why we have a paris accord, after all. so it's not really a discussion subject. i do realize, and this is important that we bear in mind, that the g20 countries, the 20 richest economies, are responsible for 75% of all carbon emissions. so the to—do list for them is one of urgency. and i do realize that if we take a country like south sudan, for example, they have just over 7% access to modern electricity and yet they have oil. what is the world going to tell a country like south sudan, right? this is where climate finance comes in, because otherwise,

both you and i, if we were the south sudanese citizens, would obviously be pushing for that resource, which what everyone else has been using for 100 years to help me and my children, my family, etc, have a better life. so the climate justice becomes important, climate finance is critical, and something that is also very much a discussion point here at the cop. so, finally, what would success look like for this cop? this cop needs to be credible on the fossil fuel dimension. it needs to, and it has already, delivered the loss and damage, as we discussed. and it needs to deliver hope on the adaptation finance side, as well as the adaptation goal, as well as the renewable energy goal. and i believe that it will. so the challenge would be to then see how expeditiously we do that,

and that, time will tell.