on addressing channel crossings. the home office has earmarked at least £700m to manage the arrival of migrants on small boats until 2030. the projections flew under the radar yet officials published them online last week, as home secretary james cleverly flew to rwanda to sign a new treaty to quote "stop the boats". they predict the channel crossings could continue up to 203k. with me is tim montgomerie. he's a columnist and the founder of the conservative home website. good of the conservative home website. to see you. wh the good to see you. what do you make of the news there is this contingency fund to stop the boats at the same time the government is pursuing a rwanda policy?— time the government is pursuing a rwanda oli ? �* , . ., ., rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and — rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and lots _ rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and lots of _ rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and lots of people _ rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and lots of people will- rwanda policy? there's a huge amount of money and lots of people will be - of money and lots of people will be very offended by that scallop money which they would rather be spent on the nhs and other priorities but in a way that specific course that the

home office has cited is the tip of the iceberg. the real cost is on things like house prices, it's on the general strain on public services of immigration and the sense that a lot of voters have that we are not properly policing our borders and the country is not safe so yes there will be people who think it is an outrageous amount of money to be spent this way but i think there's other costs that are even bigger in people's minds which is 806 issue for the conservatives. —— a toxic issue. is 806 issue for the conservatives. -- a toxic issue.— is 806 issue for the conservatives. -- a toxic issue. then new grander oli on -- a toxic issue. then new grander policy on the _ -- a toxic issue. then new grander policy on the table, _ -- a toxic issue. then new grander policy on the table, robert - -- a toxic issue. then new grander policy on the table, robert jen - -- a toxic issue. then new grander| policy on the table, robert jen rick policy on the table, robertjen rick who quit last week, saying this new plant is not good enough, strong enough, watching this vote in the commons, what do you think it will mean for the prime minister? you can invite me back— mean for the prime minister? you can invite me back when _ mean for the prime minister? you can

invite me back when i— mean for the prime minister? you can invite me back when i am _ mean for the prime minister? you can invite me back when i am wrong! - mean for the prime minister? you can invite me back when i am wrong! i - invite me back when i am wrong! i think it will pass. the tory party came very close to doing something very stupid last week, they panicked after robertjenrick resigned on for after robertjenrick resigned on for a little while i even thought there might be a leadership challenge to rishi sunak which would have been mad but the conservative party is capable of mad things at the moment! i think wiser heads are prevailing and i think they don't want to injure the prime minister any more thanis injure the prime minister any more than is necessary. i think therefore the prime minister will win in inverted commas the vote tomorrow but tory mps are not happy with the bill, their tactic is to amend it in committee stage so it may pass in the commons tomorrow i think it will struggle to pass eventually because there are irreconcilable sides of there are irreconcilable sides of the party. some people want something modest with an international law and others think we have to take much more radical

steps to fulfil immigration pledges. no doubt we will possibly totally after the vote but rishi sunak at the covid inquiry today in the next hour so how important and critical could that be for his leadership and his role as chancellor during the pandemic? i his role as chancellor during the pandemic?— his role as chancellor during the andemic? , _, , w pandemic? i might be complacent about this, _ pandemic? i might be complacent about this, i _ pandemic? i might be complacent about this, i think _ pandemic? i might be complacent about this, i think tomorrow - pandemic? i might be complacent about this, i think tomorrow is - pandemic? i might be complacent| about this, i think tomorrow is the big day for him. simply because of the power of the immigration issue and the broken promises over the years. it may make a mistake, he may make a gaffe under interrogation but my sense of where british people are, we focus so much in covid over the years, i think most people know what they think about the government handling of the pandemic which is... the difference is he is the prime minister, he was the chancellor so he can still carry the can in some ways that other politicians like borisjohnson who isn't even an mp

anymore cannot? i’m boris johnson who isn't even an mp anymore cannot?— anymore cannot? i'm 'ust not sure there's anymore cannot? i'm 'ust not sure there-s big — anymore cannot? i'm 'ust not sure there's big today. — anymore cannot? i'm 'ust not sure there's big today. we_ anymore cannot? i'm just not sure there's big today. we were - anymore cannot? i'm just not sure there's big today. we were all- anymore cannot? i'm just not sure i there's big today. we were all glued to the press conferences during the pandemic, when things were announced like it out to help out, we knew it and we studied it intently and i would be surprised if anything game changing or significant happening today and i think it is the immigration issue that is still the powerful boat moving issue that energises voters.— powerful boat moving issue that energises voters. thank you very much for giving _ energises voters. thank you very much for giving us _ energises voters. thank you very much for giving us your- energises voters. thank you very much for giving us your analysis. j so, rishi sunak will give evidence to the covid inquiry starting in the next hour — the eat out to help out scheme — was aimed at geting the hospitality industry back on its feet — but there are claims that it led to more infections and deaths. so what does the evidence show? bbc verify s nick eardley has been taking a look. it's a big question for the prime minister. what did he do when he was

chancellor and did it contribute to the rise of covid? remember this. this was rishi sunak serving katsu curry in london back in august 2020 to launch it out to help out. it was a discount on meals so meant your meal was subsidised by the government on mondays and wednesdays in august that year. it was controversial at the time and it has been argued since that it helped spread the virus long before we had the vaccine so here are bbc verify we have delved into the numbers to try and figure out what went on. let's start with the context, this is july 2020, the country was starting to open up after the first lockdown. you can see the number of cases is really low, about 4300 per week. over that month, they went up butjust week. over that month, they went up but just a week. over that month, they went up butjust a little bit, this is the start of august when it out to help out, cases 6400 per week across the

uk but there was often a delay between people getting covid under starting to show in the figures. look what happens over august and september, there is a big increase by mid september we seeing around 26,000 cases per week. was that all eat out to help out? we cannot be that sure because there are other things going on at the time, people meeting up, rules being east and a lot more chance for the virus to spread and remember, this, although this looks like a really big increase, as is the next one, there was a bigger increase to come, look at at once we hit the winter. up to 250,000 cases per week so there was a lot going on and this led to the lockdown in january a lot going on and this led to the lockdown injanuary by a lot going on and this led to the lockdown in january by the a lot going on and this led to the lockdown injanuary by the way. but what we have been trying to figure out is the comparison with other european countries as well so look at this next screen. showing the

rise in the number of cases in different european countries. france and spain which did not have it out to help out were seeing massive spikes as well, much bigger than the one in the uk. i think the question the prime minister will be asked was encouraging people to go to restaurants and it with their friends on a monday, tuesday and wednesday with cut—price meals, that help spread covid? there have been some studies done, look at this quote here from the university of warwick stop they think it added around one in six cases, you can see 8-i7% around one in six cases, you can see 8-17% of around one in six cases, you can see 8—17% of all new local infection clusters were likely to have come from the eat out to help out. this is not accepted by everybody. some scientists we have spoken to have said other things, they are not sure the second wave in winter 2020 would have been any different, the

south—west of england for loads of people went out for subsidised meals, cases did not go up as quickly as other parts of the country. but what i think will be tricky for rishi sunak today is what we have heard at the inquiry so far. some of the evidence on the scientists about eat out to help out and let me show you some codes. firstly from chris whitty, the chief medical officer for england at the time this is what he supposedly called it out to help out the virus. then there was his deputyjonathan van—tam who has already given evidence and he said the scheme didn't feel very sensible to me. and then there's this one, from angela maclean, who apparently called rishi sunak doctor death over all his support for easing restrictions. one thing to bear in mind when we hear from rishi sunak today is the economy was in a difficult place. i

think what he will argue as ministers were desperate to try and get hospitality back on its feet but the question he will face just after 10am is whether the scheme he came up 10am is whether the scheme he came up with, eat out to help out was a goodidea up with, eat out to help out was a good idea and whether it contributed to the virus spreading. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

you're live with bbc news. poland s prime minister will present his proposed cabinet to parliament for a vote of confidence today. but, its expected to fail. that would clear the way for a pro—eu coalition led by donald tusk to be put to the vote. the whole process could last a few days and it's captivated voters in poland, where people have been tuning in to watch live sessions from parliament online in their hundreds of thousands. live now to our correspondent, sarah rainsford, who's in warsaw.

good to see you. take us through what we expect to happen today. quite a lot of excitement about what is happening in polish politics, unusual times. is happening in polish politics, unusualtimes. more is happening in polish politics, unusual times. more than a million people watching sessions of parliament here on youtube and gathering today in a cinema in the centre of morsel to watch the proceedings on the big screen. we've seen pictures there, people with buckets of popcorn and watching in the front are also quite a bit of excitement because essentially it's excitement because essentially its two months since this country but for a new parliament and they still do not have a new government so in the hole behind me the prime minister is presenting a cabinet for a vote of confidence. asking deputies to vote for that government to lead poland but he does not have much of a chance because it does not have a majority so it's widely expected that will fail later today donald tusk will be given the task

of presenting his own cabinet and the vote on that will take place tomorrow. the prime minister has been presenting his case to parliament saying that he is about a government, that 7 million people voted for the governing law and justice party, he said they have a project and they are the future of poland but donald pask went into this election saying democracy itself was in danger in the country and the key issues especially the independence of the courts and judiciary and the rule of law needed to be restored, the relationship with europe needed to be restored and that's what he says are his priorities for a government if he gets the chance to form one as we expect should happen tomorrow. if expect should happen tomorrow. if that goes ahead as we expect, what will it mean for the country, its relationship with the eu and for the countries input into the war in ukraine? i countries input into the war in ukraine? ~ , countries input into the war in ukraine? ~' , ., ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship _ ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship with _ ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship with the _ ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship with the eu - ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship with the eu it - ukraine? i think in terms of the relationship with the eu it will l ukraine? i think in terms of the l relationship with the eu it will be transformative because donald tusk

was the president of the european council for many years, certainly a pro—eu leader, he has talked about that a lot on the campaign trail, recovering and restoring and repairing relations. critical to that will be very complex reforms to the judiciary, that will be very complex reforms to thejudiciary, it will that will be very complex reforms to the judiciary, it will be difficult for him to achieve that and release funding from the eu for poland but thatis funding from the eu for poland but that is what he as promised but generally the language and mood will change. there's been a very antagonistic relationship for years now between poland and the eu on key issues including migration and the rule of law, that should change under a different government. in terms of ukraine, poland supports ukraine in this war against russia, that will not change but there is a keyissue that will not change but there is a key issue on the border between the countries which is blocked by trucks, a complicated negotiation that a new government must tackle head on. ukraine has been complaining about that but the mid picture i think you are looking at a

still pro—ukraine government, pro—eu, turning thejuggernaut still pro—ukraine government, pro—eu, turning the juggernaut of polish politics towards a pro—democratic government, that is what donald tusk is expected to explain and present when he offers his choice of government to the parliament which we expect tomorrow. when you speak to people out on the streets, the boat to place two months ago, this shift back towards a pro—democracy government and politicians, what are people saying to you about that?— politicians, what are people saying to you about that? there are so much exnectation — to you about that? there are so much expectation about _ to you about that? there are so much expectation about this _ to you about that? there are so much expectation about this election. - expectation about this election. brecker— expectation about this election. brecker turner two months ago, more than 70% _ brecker turner two months ago, more than 70% of— brecker turner two months ago, more than 70% of the country turned out to vote _ than 70% of the country turned out to vote and — than 70% of the country turned out to vote and it was presented on the campaign _ to vote and it was presented on the campaign trailas a to vote and it was presented on the campaign trail as a vote for democracy. donald case making the case over— democracy. donald case making the case over and over that democracy was in _ case over and over that democracy was in danger, the freedom of the press, _ was in danger, the freedom of the press. they— was in danger, the freedom of the press, they feel the state media has become _ press, they feel the state media has become a _ press, they feel the state media has become a mouthpiece for the

government. he says that needs to change. _ government. he says that needs to change, the rule of law specifically, judges who lost their 'obs specifically, judges who lost their jobs because they spoke out about the government and he says that needs— the government and he says that needs to — the government and he says that needs to change and the eu says that must change. there are a huge number of polish _ must change. there are a huge number of polish people who support the law and justice _ of polish people who support the law and justice party, the government that has— and justice party, the government that has been in power for eight years— that has been in power for eight years and — that has been in power for eight years and they want to know if the new government will secure social spending. — new government will secure social spending, secure teachers salaries, and quite _ spending, secure teachers salaries, and quite they supported this government for many years. many women — government for many years. many women voters are looking to see what happens. _ women voters are looking to see what happens, the issue of abortion. the ruling _ happens, the issue of abortion. the ruling law— happens, the issue of abortion. the ruling law and justice party while in power— ruling law and justice party while in power essentially oversaw a near total in power essentially oversaw a near totat ban _ in power essentially oversaw a near totat ban on — in power essentially oversaw a near total ban on abortion. there were massive _ total ban on abortion. there were massive protests about this and many women _ massive protests about this and many women here _ massive protests about this and many women here in poland are hoping a new coalition government would reverse — new coalition government would reverse that near total ban, that abortion— reverse that near total ban, that abortion would again be allowed here in poland _ abortion would again be allowed here in poland |_ abortion would again be allowed here in poland. ~ ., , ., ., in poland. i think many women are watchin: in poland. i think many women are watching for _ in poland. i think many women are

watching for that _ in poland. i think many women are watching for that reason, - in poland. i think many women are watching for that reason, and - in poland. i think many women are watching for that reason, and they| watching for that reason, and they want to see what the country what they voted, for that is going in the future. . ~' , ., they voted, for that is going in the future. ., ,, y., they voted, for that is going in the future. . ~' . they voted, for that is going in the future. ., ,, . future. thank you so much. it could take hours — future. thank you so much. it could take hours if— future. thank you so much. it could take hours if not _ future. thank you so much. it could take hours if not days _ future. thank you so much. it could take hours if not days but _ future. thank you so much. it could take hours if not days but i - future. thank you so much. it could take hours if not days but i know. take hours if not days but i know that you will keep us up to date. she was donald trump's ambassador to the united nations — now nikki haley is taking on her former boss for the republican nomination to run for us president next year. as un ambassador, she was the first american of indian origin to hold a cabinet—level position in the us. now, she's hoping to take her political career right to the top. our north america editor sarah smith reports from iowa. nikki haley tells supporters that she so's often underestimated, it's become her superpower. and in this race, it's worked again, as she has quietly risen to overtake most of her rivals. she is promising tax cuts, beefed—up border security and smaller government if she becomes the first

female president. four televised debates saw her shine, with her rising profile making her a target for the others. i love all the attention, fellas — thank you for that! her campaign here in iowa has been boosted by big influential donors who are giving millions to try to cement her as the sole anti—trump candidate. so there's chaos all around us, but what i know is you don't defeat democrat chaos with republican chaos. and that's what donald trump gives us. i see nikki haley as too much of the establishment. i don't agree with her views on ukraine or the world environment at all. nikki, she's more composed and calm in everything she says. _ it establishes a lot - of confidence in her as well. i think she does a good job of walking the middle ground, too. of not being so party versus party. you have supported trump in previous elections and now you are backing nikki haley. why? you know, i see her

bringing people together. and with donald trump there's a lot of divisiveness. and i don't think our country needs that right now. nikki haley, ambassador to the united nations, has been very special to me. haley did work for donald trump. she says he was the right president at the right time, but the country now needs more sober leadership. and she quotes recent polls that suggest she is more likely than trump to win. in every one of those polls, i defeat by ten to 13 points. nikki haley is selling pretty traditional conservatism. it could have won her the nomination a few years ago, but don't forget, the republican party has been transformed by donald trump. and many of them now reject this kind of establishment politics. there is a big chunk of the republican party still looking for a trump alternative. but even if they all coalesce around haley, they still seem likely to lose to the former president.

nikki haley is doing well in what right now is reallyjust a battle for second place. sarah smith, bbc news, clear lake, iowa. president biden has invited the ukrainian president to discuss more aid for ukraine. the package has faced criticism from republicans. our faced criticism from republicans. 0ur correspondence faced criticism from republicans. our correspondence has more. people are worried. — our correspondence has more. people are worried, there _ our correspondence has more. people are worried, there is _ our correspondence has more. people are worried, there is an _ are worried, there is an acknowledgement has become difficult to secure western aid and comes at a difficult time for ukraine after its counteroffensive is seen have widely altered. many are looking for signs of hope that the battlefield, maybe there can be some progress over the next year so i think the idea that us defence aid could start to dry up

is a very difficult prospect for ukrainians and i'm sure that's why president zelensky and joe biden who probably arrange this meeting, its notjust probably arrange this meeting, its not just those probably arrange this meeting, its notjust those meant doubletalk but we expect president zelensky to meet with members of congress because as you say, the plan for the $60 billion defence aid package has become stuck on capitol hill. there are some republican lawmakers who are some republican lawmakers who are sceptical about sending more weapons aid to ukraine but it's also become entangled as an issue, packaged up with other issues including the us southern border crisis so it's a complicated situation or president zelensky to deal with. situation or president zelensky to dealwith. he situation or president zelensky to deal with. he is quite well known for his powers of persuasion but it also comes as well ahead of a summit in brussels where eu leaders will decide on some important things as well regarding aid and the future membership hopes of ukraine. you are watchin: membership hopes of ukraine. you are watching bbc—

membership hopes of ukraine. you are watching bbc news. _ membership hopes of ukraine. you are watching bbc news. right-wing - watching bbc news. right—wing conspiracy theorist alex jones has had his account on x formally twitter reinstated by elon musk. mr musk asked people to vote on whether the count should be reinstated, 70% voted in favour of allowing jones back in, last year elon musk said he would never allow him to return afterjones falsely claimed the us sunday school hook shooting was staged and ordered by a court to pay £1.73 staged and ordered by a court to pay £1.3 billion to the family of the victims. we spoke with a columnist at the washington post covering technology and online culture. this is certainly the _ technology and online culture. t'i 3 is certainly the nail on the cough and if it wasn't done before. i cannot understand how you could advertise at this point, not only based on recent comments when he told advertisers to a profane statement but knowing he is allowing this sort of hateful influencers

back on there and boosting them, i do not see that our business returning and i do not know how he will monetise. i think x formally twitter will continue to lose value. the uk s health security agency is warning that longer and warmer summers could increase the risk of disease spreading mosquitoes becoming established in the uk. the report has looked into the potential health effects of climate change and what the future could look like in a plausible worst case scenario . our global health correspondent tulip mazumdar reports. the aedes albopictus mosquito, also known as the asian tiger mosquito, so called for its distinctive white stripes and the fact that its native to tropical and subtropical areas of southeast asia. but, as our planet warms, the uk's health security agency is warning that parts of the country could become idealfor these blood—sucking insects to establish themselves here and start spreading diseases, such as dengue,

zika and chikungunya. although generally not deadly, they can cause severe illness. if these mosquitoes become established in the uk, there will be a set of actions that will be taken with local authorities to try and prevent their growth in our environment. so there are interventions that we can take to modify the environment, to reduce the risk of — from those mosquitoes. and that will also potentially include advice to people in their home, particularly in terms of how we store and manage water, for example, in our gardens and outdoors. the mosquitoes have already been responsible for local outbreaks of dengue fever in france in recent years. scientists now predict london could see regular infections by 2060. it is the ukhsa's job to look out for and protect us against these kinds of threats. it also warns of a rise in heat—related deaths and flooding

in the future. but it says this planning is for a plausible worst case scenario and points out that many of the threats can still be avoided if action is taken now. tulip mazumdar, bbc news. we're now firmly in panto season in the uk — but for some people with additional needs, the seasonal—theatrical experience can be a bit overwhelming. that's why more and more venues are offering relaxed versions of their traditional shows, with all those flashes, bangs and noisy songs toned down. richard forbes went to a theatre in edinburgh which has led the way on this idea. taking their seats for a special performance. more than 600 pupils with additional support needs filled the auditorium at edinburgh's festival theatre. we're going to keep our lights up so it doesn't get so dark and we're going to keep the volume down a bit so it's not so loud. we've taken out a lot of the crashes and bangs

that might startle you, but don't worry because all of the magic and the dancing and the jokes are still going to be there. with the music and lights toned down, everyone can enjoy the spectacle without being overwhelmed. what did you think of it? it was amazing. i liked the crocodile and it was amazing. i think the best bit was with tinkerbell. the children react sometimes in quite a boisterous way. it's great they can get the opportunity to do that. but if you come for an ordinary performance, it can be socially difficult to do that. booing. listen, listen, my turn to speak! the star of the show took part in the very first relaxed panto back in 2012. we saw a comment on facebook from a parent who said she just loved coming to the relaxed performance because for the very first time she was able to take her child to the theatre or cinema experience without worrying what other people

were going to think. and i thought that that just underlined exactly how important it was, notjust for the child to be able to come to the theatre, but for the parent or the carer to come with them. it's very special. and after this performance you can see these kids are hooked. richard forbes, bbc news. yes they are! stay with us here on bbc news after a wet and windy weekend where we saw storms elin and fergus move across the uk, monday is a much quieter day weatherwise. for the rest of today, sunny spells for most of us, still a few showers lingering, not completely dry out there, but we are between weather systems, storm fergus clearing to the east, the next area of low pressure coming in from the west, but a ridge of high pressure in charge for today. still quite a lot of cloud across eastern scotland feeding showers in around the moray firth, great glen, aberdeenshire, perhaps down towards fife as well.

also showers possible for the isle of man, north—west england towards east anglia. but sunny spells elsewhere and temperatures ranging from 6—i3, north to south. this evening and overnight the next area of rain moves in, for northern ireland, wales and the south—west of england initially, spreading eastwards, quite cold through the first—half of the night for northern and eastern areas, there could be an early touch of frost, particularly for north—east scotland as we head into the morning but frost—free further south, more heavy showers coming in, for the early hours of tuesday associated with this area of low pressure. some brisk winds driving in those showers for parts of central and southern england, wales, some of them heavy and thundery. the rain again will be quite persistent across parts of central and eastern scotland, rainfall totals mounting up here, could be some localised flooding, a little bit of snow but only over the very highest ground. it is a mild day in the south, i2—i3 , several degrees above average, but still quite cold across parts of scotland, only about 5—7. on wednesday we will have a bit of a changing wind direction, starting to become more north—easterly, still some showers

across parts of england and wales early on, brightening up towards the north—west later on in the day, but feeling colder, single figures i think across the board, somewhere between about 3—9 on wednesday, with that colder air in place on wednesday night, there could be some snowfall and we have got rain moving in turning to snow for perhaps the mountains of scotland, the pennines for instance as well. further south probably just lighter and drizzly rain which will tend to peter out on thursday as it shifts eastwards, and then some brighter and drier weather moving in as we head towards the end of the week for most of us. so, the week starts and ends on a quiet, fairly calm note but an unsettled spell of weather through the middle of the week with some blustery showers around. bye— bye.

live from southern israel. this is bbc news. qatar says the chances of a new ceasefire between israel and hamas are narrowing as intense fighting in gaza goes on. sorry, i have got to go, that is the alert, i will be back. i am samantha simmonds in london, our other main headlines. rishi sunak appears at the uk

covid inquiry to answer questions about his decisions during the pandemic. the uk government draws up plans to spend over £700 million to deal with asylum seekers arriving in small boats over the next decade. i'm carl nasman at the cop28 climate conference, where the head of the un has called for an agreement that phases out fossil fuels. but with less than 24 hours to go, there is still no deal in dubai. welcome to bbc news. diplomats at the united nations say the general assembly is likely to vote on tuesday on another call for an immediate ceasefire in gaza. according to the prime minister of qatar which helped to negotiate a week—long pause last month the opportunity for a renewed ceasefire is narrowing. we will have more on that a little bit later when we go back to anna

foster who is in israel.