negotiators say they are hopeful they will vote this evening, but still no guarantee it is a text that will suit the americans. joining me on the panel — claire ainsley, director of the project on center—left renewal at the progressive policy institute — and ron christie, former senior adviser to president george w bush. first colorado, could california be next? there are other states now exploring legal options to remove former president trump from the 2024 primary ballot. and the talent we've lost in 2023. the extraordinary collage from the new european — we will meet the artist behind the work. good evening. there had been hopes of another ceasefire and a hostage deal in gaza. but after talks in cairo, hamas said it was not willing to discuss releasing more israeli hostages until israel permanently ends its military campaign and allows more aid into gaza. israel has repeatedly rejected any

permanent ceasefire. the national security minister said ending the war before hamas was defeated would constitute a "failure". where that leaves negotiations at the un is anyone�*s guess. the security council is due to hold another vote on "urgent humanitarian pauses". but that was again postponed this afternoon as they work on the language. clearly, if neither side is prepared to give, then there doesn't appear much a resolution can achieve. our correspondent nada tawfik gave us an update on developments at the un deputy un ambassador robert wood said diplomacy takes time. so still unclear how the united states will vote on this, but there is a real disagreement over this mechanism. some saying that itjust wouldn't be practical on the ground, including the united states, saying that israel won't let anything get into gaza without inspecting it itself. others, including the arab group, believing that israel as a party to the conflict, should not be in full

control of that aid. they want to put it into the un's hands to streamline that process. so some real gaps there, christian. they're trying to see if they can work on language around the paragraph that talks about that mechanism to make it work for all the parties. but let's see if we get there. one diplomat said we could likely see another postponement until tomorrow. that's not confirmed, but that is certainly the feeling here at the un tonight. rana christie, good to see you. let's talk about new york. clearly diplomacy takes time, it always does, but i can't understand how a resolution would make any great difference in new york when the negotiations in cairo havejust ended without either side wanting to give anything. ended without either side wanting to give anything-— give anything. good evening, my friend. ithink_ give anything. good evening, my friend. i think this _ give anything. good evening, my friend. i think this is _ give anything. good evening, my

friend. i think this is yet - give anything. good evening, my friend. i think this is yet another| friend. i think this is yet another example of the lack of efficacy of the united nations in general, the security council in particular to exert pressure on to disparate parties who are at odds with each other. the israelis have dug in on one side, hamas has dug in on the other side and regardless of whatever language those at the united nations come outwith, i have a difficult time believing ibis i will abide to the language. i appreciate the effort, but i think at this juncture both sides will do what they want to do. the at this juncture both sides will do what they want to do.— what they want to do. the white house pressure _ what they want to do. the white house pressure is _ what they want to do. the white house pressure is making - what they want to do. the white house pressure is making some | house pressure is making some difference because you had a statement from the war cabinet minister he was very senior within the war cabinet. he says the current phase of fighting will end soon, army activity will be reducing gaza. it won't mean fighting., bridges

suggests they are being moved towards a different conflict which might be more intelligent lead. i think that is correct. i believe given the relationship united states have with israel, the amount of money we provide them, billions a year, that pressure from united states will at least give the prime minister benjamin netanyahu because to think, well, we don't really want to think, well, we don't really want to alienate denoted says that much so maybe we will bring it back little bit —— alienate the united states. they have been steadfast in staying the us stands behind israel in this conflict gets hamas.- in this conflict gets hamas. these are live pictures _ in this conflict gets hamas. these are live pictures you _ in this conflict gets hamas. these are live pictures you are _ in this conflict gets hamas. these are live pictures you are watching | are live pictures you are watching at the security council in new york. you will see many of the seats are empty. i don't know if it is significant live pictures are being streamed and they are coming into

boatin streamed and they are coming into boat in the coming hours, but we will keep an iron it. claire, can we talk about the pressure on the israeli government? hamas has published a video showing the three captives killed by the israeli army, and the statement goes, we try to keep them alive and it was benjamin netanyahu who insisted on killing them. they are using it as propaganda to put pressure on him, but there is already internal pressure on israel that they want something to be done.— pressure on israel that they want something to be done. yes, there's been domestic— something to be done. yes, there's been domestic pressure _ something to be done. yes, there's been domestic pressure right - something to be done. yes, there's been domestic pressure right from | been domestic pressure right from the moment— been domestic pressure right from the moment the _ been domestic pressure right from the moment the hostages - been domestic pressure right from the moment the hostages were . been domestic pressure right from i the moment the hostages were taken on the _ the moment the hostages were taken on the israeti — the moment the hostages were taken on the israeli government, _ the moment the hostages were taken on the israeli government, that- on the israeli government, that wider— on the israeli government, that wider international— on the israeli government, that wider international pressure. i on the israeli government, that. wider international pressure. we on the israeli government, that- wider international pressure. we can see it _ wider international pressure. we can see it does _ wider international pressure. we can see it does matter, _ wider international pressure. we can see it does matter, it _ wider international pressure. we can see it does matter, it does - wider international pressure. we can see it does matter, it does play- wider international pressure. we can see it does matter, it does play a . see it does matter, it does play a part _ see it does matter, it does play a part the — see it does matter, it does play a part. the british— see it does matter, it does play a part. the british government - part. the british government likewise _ part. the british government likewise is _ part. the british government likewise is standing - part. the british government likewise is standing behind . part. the british government - likewise is standing behind israel, but likewise is standing behind israel, hut as_ likewise is standing behind israel, but as the — likewise is standing behind israel, but as the campaign _ likewise is standing behind israel, but as the campaign intensifies i likewise is standing behind israel, i but as the campaign intensifies and we are _ but as the campaign intensifies and we are seeihg— but as the campaign intensifies and we are seeing the _ but as the campaign intensifies and we are seeing the humanitarian- we are seeing the humanitarian consequences. _ we are seeing the humanitarian consequences, you _ we are seeing the humanitarian consequences, you can - we are seeing the humanitarian consequences, you can see - we are seeing the humanitarian consequences, you can see the| we are seeing the humanitarian- consequences, you can see the real unease _ consequences, you can see the real unease being — consequences, you can see the real unease being expressed _ consequences, you can see the real unease being expressed by- consequences, you can see the real unease being expressed by the - consequences, you can see the real. unease being expressed by the wider

international— unease being expressed by the wider international community _ unease being expressed by the wider international community is _ unease being expressed by the wider international community is being - international community is being reflected — international community is being reftected in— international community is being reflected in some _ international community is being reflected in some of— international community is being reflected in some of israel's - reflected in some of israel's actions _ reflected in some of israel's actions it— reflected in some of israel's actions. it is— reflected in some of israel's actions. it is an _ actions. it is an intolerable situation _ actions. it is an intolerable situation for— actions. it is an intolerable situation for everybody - actions. it is an intolerable - situation for everybody affected by it. ~ ., situation for everybody affected by it. . . , ., situation for everybody affected by it. . ., , ., , it. what i understand the sticking oint in it. what i understand the sticking point in the _ it. what i understand the sticking point in the language _ it. what i understand the sticking point in the language is _ it. what i understand the sticking point in the language is the - point in the language is the monitoring mechanism that would be put in place and how the language refers to it in the document. at the moment, just explain to people, the israelis scan everything that goes into gaza, they can slow the flow or speed up the flow of aid. and the arab states here wanting the un to be in control of it, not only of what goes through bert of the distribution. i guess there is a risk as they negotiate, get waters down that it doesn't mean very much. they are being... access is vital and we — they are being... access is vital and we saw— they are being... access is vital and we saw there _ they are being... access is vital and we saw there are _ they are being... access is vital

and we saw there are no - they are being... access is vital and we saw there are no viable i and we saw there are no viable hospitals — and we saw there are no viable hospitals in _ and we saw there are no viable hospitals in northern— and we saw there are no viable hospitals in northern gaza, - and we saw there are no viable hospitals in northern gaza, sol and we saw there are no viable i hospitals in northern gaza, so the situation — hospitals in northern gaza, so the situation is — hospitals in northern gaza, so the situation is dire. _ hospitals in northern gaza, so the situation is dire. there _ hospitals in northern gaza, so the situation is dire. there were - situation is dire. there were doctors. _ situation is dire. there were doctors. un _ situation is dire. there were doctors, un doctors- situation is dire. there were doctors, un doctors saying, j situation is dire. there were - doctors, un doctors saying, look, we've _ doctors, un doctors saying, look, we've got— doctors, un doctors saying, look, we've got pregnant _ doctors, un doctors saying, look, we've got pregnant women - doctors, un doctors saying, look, we've got pregnant women who . doctors, un doctors saying, look, i we've got pregnant women who need cesarean _ we've got pregnant women who need cesarean sections _ we've got pregnant women who need cesarean sections and _ we've got pregnant women who need cesarean sections and they— we've got pregnant women who need cesarean sections and they cannot i cesarean sections and they cannot have _ cesarean sections and they cannot have them — cesarean sections and they cannot have them in— cesarean sections and they cannot have them in northern _ cesarean sections and they cannot have them in northern gaza. - cesarean sections and they cannot have them in northern gaza. it - cesarean sections and they cannot have them in northern gaza. it is. cesarean sections and they cannot| have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible _ have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible situation _ have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible situation they— have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible situation they are - have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible situation they are in. - have them in northern gaza. it is a terrible situation they are in. thatl terrible situation they are in. that said, _ terrible situation they are in. that said. there — terrible situation they are in. that said, there has— terrible situation they are in. that said, there has to— terrible situation they are in. that said, there has to be _ terrible situation they are in. that said, there has to be an _ said, there has to be an appreciation— said, there has to be an appreciation of- said, there has to be an appreciation of the - said, there has to be an appreciation of the fact i said, there has to be an i appreciation of the fact the israetis _ appreciation of the fact the israelis have _ appreciation of the fact the israelis have now- appreciation of the fact the israelis have now decided i appreciation of the fact the i israelis have now decided to appreciation of the fact the - israelis have now decided to wage this campaign— israelis have now decided to wage this campaign to _ israelis have now decided to wage this campaign to take _ israelis have now decided to wage this campaign to take it _ israelis have now decided to wage this campaign to take it to - israelis have now decided to wage this campaign to take it to the - israelis have now decided to wage i this campaign to take it to the end, as they— this campaign to take it to the end, as they see — this campaign to take it to the end, as they see it. _ this campaign to take it to the end, as they see it, and _ this campaign to take it to the end, as they see it, and therefore - this campaign to take it to the end, | as they see it, and therefore anyway they can _ as they see it, and therefore anyway they can relinquish _ as they see it, and therefore anyway they can relinquish any _ as they see it, and therefore anyway they can relinquish any control- as they see it, and therefore anyway they can relinquish any control in - they can relinquish any control in that situation, _ they can relinquish any control in that situation, i— they can relinquish any control in that situation, i understand - they can relinquish any control in that situation, i understand whyl they can relinquish any control inl that situation, i understand why it is a painstakingly _ that situation, i understand why it is a painstakingly gauche - that situation, i understand why it is a painstakingly gauche asian. . that situation, i understand why it is a painstakingly gauche asian. itj is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will he _ is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will he a _ is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will he a long _ is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will be a long night, _ is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will be a long night, and - is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will be a long night, and i- is a painstakingly gauche asian. it will be a long night, and i don't. will be a long night, and i don't whether— will be a long night, and i don't whether they _ will be a long night, and i don't whether they will— will be a long night, and i don't whether they will find - will be a long night, and i don't whether they will find a - will be a long night, and i don't. whether they will find a resolution -- painstaking— whether they will find a resolution —— painstaking negotiation. - whether they will find a resolution —— painstaking negotiation. me i whether they will find a resolution -- painstaking negotiation. we will no back to -- painstaking negotiation. we will go back to new— -- painstaking negotiation. we will go back to new york _ -- painstaking negotiation. we will go back to new york through - -- painstaking negotiation. we will go back to new york through the i go back to new york through the course of the programme, and if anything changes, we will bring it to you. coming up... the us supreme court

is stuck with donald trump, whether the justices like it or not. but how quickly will they decide on the big decisions that are stacking up before them. if you think trump's legal worries are any comfort to democrats, think again. polls out this week have biden trailing in all the key states — his approval rating at rock bottom as the race approaches. we will get to all of that, so stay with us. this is bbc news. let's look at some other stories making news. the home office has quietly lowered a new earnings threshold it set earlier this month for people who want to come to the uk on family visas. home secretary james cleverly announced on december 4 that someone who wanted to bring their partner or dependant to the uk would need to earn £38,700. but after widespread criticism, a policy document published this evening says the threshold will now be set at £29,000. eurotunnel has confirmed that the strike called suddenly today by its tunnel workers is over and there will be a return to services. travellers in the uk had holiday plans thrown into chaos when the channel tunnel rail

operator cancelled all services earlier today. ajudge has ruled the two i6—year—olds found guilty of murdering brianna ghey in a park in cheshire in february can be named. the pair have been referred to only as girl x and boy y due to their age. trialjudge mrsjustice yip said they could be named when the sentencing hearing takes place in february. you are live with bbc news. it was always likely that the supreme court would play a decisive role in this 2024 presidential election, but the day might come much come sooner than expected. the court and its 6—3 conservative majority, which includes, of course, the three justices trump appointed, must decide on two fundemental issues that will dictate how this plays out. last week, special counsel jack smith asked the justices to step in immediately to rule on trump's claim that he has presidential immunity from prosecution. the former president is trying

to delay the criminal case in washington dc in which he is charged with election interference. and then, following colorado's decision on tuesday to strike him from the ballot, they must decide whether he is even eligible to run given his involvement in the january 6th riot. last night the lieutenant governor in california said they are now exploring every option to remove trump from their primary ballot. live now to rick pildes — the sudler family professor of constitutional law at new york university school of law. it is good to have you on the programme. before we get to the case, can we start with the position the supreme court now finds itself? a penny for the thought ofjustice roberts. . ., , ., roberts. the court itself and certainly chief _ roberts. the court itself and certainly chiefjustice - roberts. the court itself and | certainly chiefjustice roberts would like to keep a low profile regarding the 2024 election. they

realise, or most of the justices realise, or most of the justices realise the political culture is so toxic in the us right now and divisive that any decision the court makes about half the country disappointed by the decision will see the court as acting as partisan reasons. it is a difficult and dangerous position for the court to be in, but it is very hard for the court to stay out of these issues altogether. court to stay out of these issues altogether-— court to stay out of these issues altoaether. ., . . , , altogether. have we had any steer from the chief _ altogether. have we had any steer from the chiefjustice _ altogether. have we had any steer from the chiefjustice whether - altogether. have we had any steer from the chiefjustice whether or i from the chiefjustice whether or not they will pick these cases up quickly? not they will pick these cases up cuickl ? ~ ~ ..,, not they will pick these cases up cuickl ? ~ ,, ..,, ., quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly _ quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly has _ quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly has to _ quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly has to take, - quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly has to take, i - quickly? well, i think the case from colorado certainly has to take, i do | colorado certainly has to take, i do think it is a tenable position for some state in the united states to say donald trump can be on the ballot for the 2024 election, some states say he can't. this is an issue which requires a uniform

national solution, and only the spring court can provide it. i don't see anyway the supreme court can avoid it. the other issue, the one before the court right now, is whether they should jump ahead and deal with this question, whether the president has immunity from criminal prosecution for acts taken whilst in office once he's out of office. in the normal sequence of things, that case would go to the court of appeal is at this point, not to be supreme court. but the special council has asked the supreme court to get involved now so that the court is in the position of facing this issue in october, let's say, on the eve of the election. the court has some discretion about what it does there, unlike the colorado case whether court has the responsibility to take the case. i court has the responsibility to take the case. , , court has the responsibility to take thecase. _. ,. ., the case. i said they play such a role in the _ the case. i said they play such a role in the election, _ the case. i said they play such a role in the election, and - the case. i said they play such a role in the election, and the - role in the election, and the principal reason for that, when you

look at the first case, the one jack smith has put through on immunity, it does determine whether his criminal trial will go ahead in march. it is due to startjust before super tuesday, so it really does put itself righted amidst the political debate, but of course if it is delayed and delayed by the tactics trump's alloys are following, it changes the equation. yes, it makes an enormous difference if the trial is able to go forward and be resolved. for enough in advance of the election that voters know whether the president has been convicted or has been acquitted of those criminal charges. it has always been a tight timetable to get that to the actual trial, before the election. the court of appeal is in washington, they are clearly trying

to move this quickly, butjack smith thinks it is better the supreme court steps are now rather than waiting for the lower court to go forward. ., waiting for the lower court to go forward. . ., ~ ., , forward. claire, the former attorney general, forward. claire, the former attorney general. he — forward. claire, the former attorney general, he was _ forward. claire, the former attorney general, he was a _ forward. claire, the former attorney general, he was a warning - forward. claire, the former attorney| general, he was a warning overnight the collar ruling, which in his view stretches the law —— colorado ruling. he says what that will do is it will feed that level of grievance within the republican party, which donald trump feeds on lichen oxygen feeds on fire, a fire feeds and oxygen, i say. feeds on fire, a fire feeds and oxygen, isay. when feeds on fire, a fire feeds and oxygen, i say. when you look at these cases, they have proved counter—productive to the democrats, and this might be another example of it. , , ., .., and this might be another example of it. , it. yes, you can understand the rofound it. yes, you can understand the profound affront _ it. yes, you can understand the profound affront some - it. yes, you can understand the profound affront some people | it. yes, you can understand the i profound affront some people who would _ profound affront some people who would say — profound affront some people who would say donald trump was in breach of the _ would say donald trump was in breach of the 6th— would say donald trump was in breach

of the 6th of— would say donald trump was in breach of the 6th ofjanuary rounds the insurrection, how strongly they feet _ insurrection, how strongly they feet to— insurrection, how strongly they feel. to that point, playing all of this out— feel. to that point, playing all of this out in— feel. to that point, playing all of this out in the theatre of the courts— this out in the theatre of the courts has the risk it could backfire _ courts has the risk it could backfire and feel that politics of grievance, which we knowjust fuels trump's _ grievance, which we knowjust fuels trump's argument, allows him to sound _ trump's argument, allows him to sound like — trump's argument, allows him to sound like he is anti—elite. all the while _ sound like he is anti—elite. all the while you've got most ordinary voters. — while you've got most ordinary voters. for— while you've got most ordinary voters, for whom the election is a lon- voters, for whom the election is a long time — voters, for whom the election is a long time away thinking, what is biden— long time away thinking, what is biden doing to reduce my costs, to increase _ biden doing to reduce my costs, to increase my— biden doing to reduce my costs, to increase my wages and to get a grip on some _ increase my wages and to get a grip on some of— increase my wages and to get a grip on some of the economic issues? i have _ on some of the economic issues? i have some — on some of the economic issues? i have some sympathy for the view that actually, _ have some sympathy for the view that actually, some of this is fuelling a theatre _ actually, some of this is fuelling a theatre which does not play well for theatre which does not play well for the democrats when they need to turn things— the democrats when they need to turn things around and play in the theatre — things around and play in the theatre people's kitchen table, economics and the money in people's pockets _

economics and the money in people's pockets is _ economics and the money in people's pockets is where the election will be fought. pockets is where the election will be fou:ht. ,., . , pockets is where the election will be fou:ht. . , , pockets is where the election will befou~ht. ., , ,., be fought. donald trump is always accused of bending _ be fought. donald trump is always accused of bending the _ be fought. donald trump is always accused of bending the guardrailsl accused of bending the guardrails and getting away with things from the democrat side at least. the law is working, and it has worked again today. rudy giuliani, his senior legal adviser, ordered last week to pay $148 million for spreading false rumours about two election workers. he has declared for bankruptcy today, saying outside court he wouldn't pay it and would appeal the numbers. it doesn't appear he's in a very strong position. let numbers. it doesn't appear he's in a very strong position.— very strong position. let me agree with the professor _ very strong position. let me agree with the professor for _ very strong position. let me agree with the professor for his - very strong position. let me agree i with the professor for his comments initially. this is a very dangerous path we are going down, to say donald trump on the 14th amendment, section three committed offences against the us that was an

insurrection he's not been indicted, and whether you are the president or not, you start doing this and maybe the republicans down the road will do it against a democrat president. i believe the supreme court needs to stand with the unanimous voice, a 9-0 stand with the unanimous voice, a 9—0 decision to say this colorado supreme court can determine what the 14th amendment is. that is the duty of the supreme court. that being said, donald trump's former senior adviser, we have two different provisions and our bankruptcy code, chapter seven and 11, and rudy giuliani is trying to unveil himself of those protections so he at least has some of his protections and some of his assets left. my instincts tell the other court of appeals will wipe the strike down. the damages

that some of these people have been awarded, 48 million seems excessive, but it's a cautionary tale of putting yourself on donald trump and seeing how that weighs you down. and seeing how that weighs you down. and how many people can say that? rick, just on the point ron was making a budget process and he's not been convicted of an insurrection. when the supreme court considered it, will they take into account the fact congress ruled on his second impeachment trial on whether he was involved in an insurrection. there was a majority of the house who said he was, the senate, a majority of the senate said he was involved. well that be considered? i think the court _ well that be considered? i think the court will— well that be considered? i think the court will consider certainly a range — court will consider certainly a range of— court will consider certainly a range of factors here. i think the

fact no— range of factors here. i think the fact no one — range of factors here. i think the fact no one has been indicted for insurrection forjanuary the six and the fact— insurrection forjanuary the six and the fact the — insurrection forjanuary the six and the fact the president hasn't will probably— the fact the president hasn't will probably be one factor. there certainly _ probably be one factor. there certainly is an argument these provisions the constitution dared reguire _ provisions the constitution dared require a — provisions the constitution dared require a criminal conviction, and the whole — require a criminal conviction, and the whole issue of whether there was adequate _ the whole issue of whether there was adequate process to make the judgment he had engaged in insurrection, that'll be an issue much _ insurrection, that'll be an issue much debated before the supreme court _ much debated before the supreme court so— much debated before the supreme court. so this is basically a set of novel— court. so this is basically a set of novel issues. we haven't confronted this question of whether someone should _ this question of whether someone should he — this question of whether someone should be disqualified for having been _ should be disqualified for having been engaged in insurrection. since the aftermath of the civil war. with all these _ the aftermath of the civil war. with all these novel questions, without president— all these novel questions, without president on these issues, a lot of these _ president on these issues, a lot of these factors could easily weigh in these factors could easily weigh in the balance of the court's consideration.— the balance of the court's consideration. ., ,, , ., , . consideration. thank you very much for cominu consideration. thank you very much for coming on- _ consideration. thank you very much for coming on. really _ consideration. thank you very much for coming on. really good - consideration. thank you very much for coming on. really good to - consideration. thank you very much for coming on. really good to get . for coming on. really good to get

your expertise. meanwhile, over on the democrat side, president biden is insisting that everything is hunky dory. despite the fact his approval rating is tanking. "you re reading the wrong polls," he said on sunday. well, here's one from monday. a poll from monmouth university in which biden's approval rating is just 34% — that's the lowest it has ever been in that poll at any time. and in a head—to—head in the battleground states, he is consistently trailing trump in a hypothetical match up. the approval rating is the worst of any president a year out, going all the way back to 1945. and no incumbent president has ever won from so far back, in the modern political era. live now to larry sabato, a political scientist and director of the centre for politics at the university of virginia. some i am quoting from politico. would you agree that he has so far back it is looking dangerous for him? it back it is looking dangerous for him? ., ., 4', back it is looking dangerous for him? ., ., ,,

back it is looking dangerous for him? ., ., , , him? it looks dangerous but i don't auree him? it looks dangerous but i don't aaree with him? it looks dangerous but i don't agree with the _ him? it looks dangerous but i don't agree with the overall— him? it looks dangerous but i don't agree with the overall sentiment. l agree with the overall sentiment. they pick the outlier, the new york times have had polls out in the last few days showing it is tied. one had biden up a couple, the other had trump up a couple. this will be a close, tight race, all the way to the end. assuming it is still biden versus trump. it’s the end. assuming it is still biden versus trump-— the end. assuming it is still biden versus trump. it's an open question as to how many — versus trump. it's an open question as to how many americans, - versus trump. it's an open question as to how many americans, how - versus trump. it's an open question | as to how many americans, how they will respond when they are confronted with trump's potential convictions. we have seen in the last week these legal problems coming back into view, but that's not a strategy. that is what derek art are worried about. they are not hearing a strategy from the white house —— that is what the democrats are worried about. in house -- that is what the democrats are worried about.— are worried about. in my many decades in _ are worried about. in my many decades in politics _ are worried about. in my many decades in politics i _ are worried about. in my many decades in politics i have - are worried about. in my many| decades in politics i have never found a point at which democrats weren't worried and stressed. that seems to be part of their dna, more

than republicans. they perhaps do it better in some respects. the point here that is important is that the key underlying factor, over than the age and health of the two candidates, is the state of the economy. and here, while presidents have effects on the economy, they do not run the economy, they do not sit in the oval office pulling levers and pushing buttons and running this $30 trillion a year economy. its luck as much as anything else as to whether there is a good or bad economy. biden has had bad luck in terms of the economy. he may, and i underline it ten times, it may be turning. there's been a lot of positive information and start coming out about the economy in the last three to four weeks. if that continues, that a giant if, biden could ended being in a much better

condition than we imagine right now. his other vulnerability is border security, and some of the compromises he's been prepared or is reported to be prepared to make is alarming some of the progressive left of his party. he needs to do that because it is clearly one of the top issues for people out there in the country. the top issues for people out there in the country-— in the country. 100%. it is always aood to in the country. 10096. it is always good to see _ in the country. 10096. it is always good to see my _ in the country. 10096. it is always good to see my colleague - in the country. 10096. it is always good to see my colleague from i in the country. 10096. it is always i good to see my colleague from the university— good to see my colleague from the university of virginia. i am just down _ university of virginia. i am just down the — university of virginia. i am just down the road at the miller centre, and it— down the road at the miller centre, and it always good to be on a panel with him _ and it always good to be on a panel with him. that said, the danger president — with him. that said, the danger president biden finds himself in is inflation — president biden finds himself in is inflation. and there is a growing sense _ inflation. and there is a growing sense of— inflation. and there is a growing sense of unrest in many of our urban communities— sense of unrest in many of our urban communities in washington, dc or were _ communities in washington, dc or were i_ communities in washington, dc or were i live, — communities in washington, dc or were i live, that crime is significantly higher than where it was a _ significantly higher than where it was a couple of years ago. when you look at _ was a couple of years ago. when you

look at unemployment numbers, which might— look at unemployment numbers, which might be _ look at unemployment numbers, which might be low, you look at inflation numbers— might be low, you look at inflation numbers which have been high and are slowly— numbers which have been high and are slowly retreating, but the sense of unease _ slowly retreating, but the sense of unease with the american people, and i will unease with the american people, and i will deter— unease with the american people, and i will defer to the professor on this _ i will defer to the professor on this i— i will defer to the professor on this. i think there's a cauldron going — this. i think there's a cauldron going on— this. i think there's a cauldron going on in— this. i think there's a cauldron going on in the us political spectrum that a year out from where we sit _ spectrum that a year out from where we sit right— spectrum that a year out from where we sit right now, i think a lot of things— we sit right now, i think a lot of things could change, i don't believe these _ things could change, i don't believe these national polls are necessarily reflective _ these national polls are necessarily reflective of where we are heading into november 2024.— reflective of where we are heading into november 2024. claire, 'ust a cuick into november 2024. claire, 'ust a quick — into november 2024. claire, 'ust a quick one. that i into november 2024. claire, 'ust a quick one. that description h into november 2024. claire, just a quick one. that description of - quick one. that description of inflation and things improving, but if people on feeling it at the pump or not feeling it in the supermarket, it doesn't matter how much you tell them the economy is turning around, they won't vote for you if they aren't feeling it. i send my love back to ron. this is

the important point. we are 11 months away, no, ten months away from the election. that is plenty of time for public sentiment to change in either direction. no one knows what events might happen that affect the economy between now and november, or late september when the voting starts. that is the acceptable risk that both candidates based. you don't know what the conditions will be, but i could easily see americans turning more positive about it. they've heard badly because of inflation, but it does change over time. it has clearly fallen, it takes a while for people to realise it. all the other indicators are trading north. they are doing well. i don't know whether it will continue, and neither do the economists. we will see what happens. but polls this early mean next to nothing. on that i agree

with ron. we obsess about them. you can go to x, formerly twitter, anytime a poll come out and you find people going bananas, depending on the numbers, whether democrats or republicans. they all worried about nothing because these polls are nonsensical this for in advance of an election. nonsensical this for in advance of an election-— an election. larry, it is always aood to an election. larry, it is always good to get — an election. larry, it is always good to get your _ an election. larry, it is always good to get your votes. - an election. larry, it is always good to get your votes. we i an election. larry, it is always. good to get your votes. we will an election. larry, it is always - good to get your votes. we willjust leave you with this thought. 62% of republicans were thinking donald trump should be that nominee if he wins. that is how much they want. let me show you pictures in the un. i will bring you news on that the other side of the break. hello again. storm pia has been bringing some very strong winds, particularly to the northern half of the uk, and it has been bringing some issues. for example, here on the bottom bridge just by the trafford centre

on manchester's orbital m60 motorway, a lorry got blown over by the strong winds. reports of some transport disruption elsewhere. a top gust of 81 mph recorded in shetland, into the 70s across mainland scotland and over the very tops of the pennines as well. now the core of storm pia is actually now moving into scandinavia. we get a core of really strong winds going into denmark over the next few hours. gusts could reach 80—90 mph, strong enough to bring some disruption here and maybe even blow some roofs off buildings. across the uk, plenty of showers or lengthier outbreaks of rain across north western areas of the country overnight. but with colder air in shetland, well, here the rain turns to snow, could be several centimetres, even blizzards for a time. icy conditions then to watch out for for the first part of friday morning. friday is going to be another unsettled day. still quite blustery. the north westerly winds bringing showers or lengthier outbreaks of rain across northern and western areas. something a bit drier and brighter across eastern scotland, where it stays on the cold side. and we should have largely dry

conditions across southern wales and much of southern england as well. heading through friday night time into the early part of saturday, we get this battle zone between the relatively mild air that most of the uk will have, the colder air feeding in across northern scotland, into that mix, we get this weather front moving in. it looks like we could well see a spell of snow getting down potentially to quite low elevations across the very far north of scotland with a risk of icy stretches building in here. otherwise, friday night is going to be a mild night. no chance of any snow with temperatures for most of you at around 8—10 celsius. on into the start of the weekend then, saturday sees further outbreaks of rain across scotland, milder air moving in here, so any snow turning back to rain. away from that, something a bit brighter across southern areas, very mild, temperatures around 12—13 celsius, staying on the blustery side. what about christmas eve? well, south westerly winds dominate the country. outbreaks of rain around, mild weather conditions, particularly so across parts of eastern england, where we could see temperatures reaching around iii—15 celsius.

and then for christmas day, for most of us, mild, still some rain around. could be a bit colder, though, for northern scotland. small chance of some snow here.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. the talent we've lost in 2023 — the extraordinary collage from the new european. we will meet the artist behind the work.