there has been a huge delay in searching for survivors, and the teams are now going one by one to each of these collapsed wooden houses to search for them. but they don't know if anyone is inside here. their searches aren't based on any information, they've told us. this resident has come to tell the rescuers she thinks her husband's aunt is inside. translation: she's 95 and can't move much. l we've looked in all the evacuation centres but can't find her. but the dog can't get far enough in. the team must move on. time is too critical. here, some certainty — there is a woman inside, but alive? they don't know. the window to find people is closing. jean mackenzie, bbc news, and wajima injapan.

and the japanese authorities say a coastguard aircraft involved in yesterday's fatal collision at tokyo's haneda airport wasn't cleared for take—off. the smaller aeroplane collided with a japan airlines passengerjet on the runway, leading to a fireball and the deaths of five people. russia and ukraine have agreed to exchange hundreds of prisoners of war, after what moscow described as "difficult" negotiations. this programme continues on bbc one. today, two other parties are out of the starting blocks.

on the eve of big speeches from the labour and conservative leaders, today we had a farage—free reform uk press conference... and a lib dem stunt. richard tice, the reform leader, and daisy cooper, deputy leader of the lib dems, are here. all politicians are up against some grim economic warnings. i think it's more likely than not we will see the uk entering recession over the course of 202a. it is a coin toss if you look at economic forecasts. so how will the economy play into the politics? we'll chew the fat with two top economics commentators. and the teenager of the moment luke littler may have just lost the world championship darts final, but he absolutely won over the public with his outstanding run at ally pally. joe is live at the darts club in st helens where it all began. it was not to be, but what a

remarkable run for the teenage darts prodigy. we alive at the academy where luke littler owned his world—class skills. —— we are alive. if yesterday's claim by the government that it had "abolished" the backlog of older asylum applications, and labour's response — that it was actually a "barefaced lie" — are a sign of things to come, it's likely going to be a bitter and intense uk general election. tomorrow, the pm and labour leader will give new year speeches laying out some of the things they believe are important to voters. today, the liberal democrats and reform uk were on parade. we'll talk to the leader of reform and the deputy leader of the lib dems in a moment. first, nick sets the scene for the battle for number ten. the prize, a gilded portal which the incumbent will fight hard to retain. a symbol of power the pretender will hope to capture.

and who will unlock the door? tomorrow, the two men vying to live here will go head to head in different parts of the country, making their pitch. for him, don't drop the prized ming vase. for him, how do i turn this round? rishi sunak is fighting a very difficult battle. he's fighting it on multiple fronts and he's currently losing. people have just had enough. they're not really listening to the conservative party any more. what's interesting is, - nor do they feel any optimism towards the labour party. i stood in 1992 and whilst - i was elected in 1992, a widely expected labour win evaporated. so i've got that sort - of burned into my memory. in the end, it all comes down to who can command the confidence of that place over there. we know who did that with panache in the post—war period: attlee, thatcher and blair. will this election join that

roll call or is there a way back for the conservatives? rishi sunak, he has not given up, and keir starmer, well, for all his talk about being a warrior against complacency, does believe he can take his party from that heavy defeat last time to victory this time. and if he does that, keir starmer will of course only be the fourth leader of his party in its entire history to win a parliamentary majority. a new dawn has broken, has it not? i want to help try and build a more responsible society here in britain. so what does recent history tell us? in the last 27 years, two opposition leaders have made it to downing street. tony blair in 1997 and david cameron in 2010. like those two, keir starmer enters the year comfortably ahead in the polls. but will his numbers go the same way as blair, who started 1997 with a 25 point

lead over the conservatives and saw that narrow to 13 points, still enough then for a landslide? or david cameron, who started 2010 with an eight point lead over labour and saw that dip slightly to seven points, denying him an overall majority? labour's in an interesting position. it's 20 points ahead in the polls. it has been for a long time, you know, with some fluctuations, but they've managed to really maintain that lead. when you look at those voters that have switched from conservative to labour from 2019, those voters don't actually look like they're going elsewhere. they seem pretty sure they're not going back to the conservatives and they're going to stick with labour. that being said, it is quite hard to find a focus group, someone in a focus group or just even anecdotally, anyone who is incredibly enthusiastic about the prospect of keir starmer as prime minister. and then there are the challenges from the smaller parties. for rishi sunak, a threat on his right flank from reform uk and on his left flank from the liberal democrats.

for keir starmer, a rival to his left from the greens and a challenge to a labour revival in scotland from the snp. i think the conservatives are more vulnerable to other parties now. i think we're going to see reform try and appeal to labour voters as well. so we'll see if labour might also lose some support to reform. two figures who've played significant roles in the two main parties. i think that there is nothing that the government and the conservative party can do now, that they can do that is going to remove labour's poll lead. like, there's nothing they can do. the only thing that might remove labour's poll lead is if labour itself does something insane. right, so ijust... i don't think that's a credible scenario. the question is, what might tighten things? what might tighten things the most? and my assumption is that this year he will try and do some combination of putting policies in place that expose labour's division or areas

where labour is on a different side from the public. that's going to be one of the reasons that he keeps talking about immigration and boats. two, try and demonstrate some kind of record of delivery. angela eagle thinks it's wrong to draw comparisons with the past. i think we're in different times and keir starmer isn't exactlyl the same person as tony blair. you wouldn't expect that, i and that's not what people are looking for now. i think we've been through very traumatic times. - the problems the country faces are far more dramatic now- than they were in 1996, '97. we have a war in europe. i we have instabilityj in the middle east. we have climate change, i which is getting to the stage where if we don't do something very, very, very soon, - it's going to be unstoppable. so there are a range of almost existential issues that - need calm leadership, i not only in our country,

but on the global stage. a season in full flight. one presence happily immune to change. others hope for new openings. nick's here. how's tomorrow shaping up? we will see rishi sunak and keir starmer at different events in different parts of the country, and in different styles. for keir starmer, it's traditional speech. for keir starmer, it's more a town hall meeting with voters. ahead of tomorrow, keir starmer has given an interview with a very simple message: bring it on, call the election. in the last three minutes, we have had some briefing on what he will say in that speech tomorrow. here are some briefing. why he came into politics to serve. tony blair could have and indeed did use the with this exact language in 1997. i hate the futility of opposition, the

pain that comes from watching the tories drive the country relevant to decline. for rishi sunak, it is formally known as apm connect event, where he will meet voters and take questions from them. no set plans for the speeches at the moment. one number 10 source said to me, we have done enough of those. they believe it is good for the prime minister to engage with voters, take questions from them. but is there a little aversion to speech—making? of course, it is exactly a year since he set out those five pledges. this week, we had a report card from the institute for government. on the first one, halving inflation, they said that is achieved. i'm growing the economy, they said that is on track. but the other three are either endowed or off—track. thank you very much. —— in doubt or off—track. reform held a press conference today to set out their general election strategy. its leader richard tice is here. thanks very much for being with us and talking to our audience tonight. one of your promises to the

electorate today which you spoke about was to freeze nonessential migration. i wanted to ask you: are programmers and software developers nonessential migrants? there are a range of essential and nonessential... i am asking you about... depending on the time of the cycle and who we are short of. sure. i am asking this question: do you think programmers and software developers are nonessential? irate developers are nonessential? we should developers are nonessential? - should be training our own people and many of these areas. 50 should be training our own people and many of these areas.- and many of these areas. so you think they _ and many of these areas. so you think they are? _ and many of these areas. so you think they are? where _ and many of these areas. so you think they are? where we - and many of these areas. so you think they are? where we have l and many of these areas. so you j think they are? where we have a shortaae think they are? where we have a shortage at _ think they are? where we have a shortage at the _ think they are? where we have a shortage at the moment - think they are? where we have a shortage at the moment is - think they are? where we have a i shortage at the moment is primarily on health care workers. we need to train our own. in the interim, yes, we should be bringing in some additional health care workers from overseas. what is morally unethical... overseas. what is morall unethical... what is morally unethical... ok, so... what is morally unethical as to bring in too many health care workers in developing nations. we have to train our own people. so programmers and software developers are nonessential migrants, but care workers and home care workers are essential? this will depend on the cycle where

—— how well you are doing a training people. you cannot have economic growth, and the expert you will talk to later agree with me, when you have got a high taxes, record mass immigration, record high government spending, much of it sadly wasteful, nanny state regulations, because they haven't taken opportunities from brexit, and also, the multi—trillion pound cost of net zero. we fear a recession this year with a massive, growing deficit. we have highlighted today the risks of starmergeddon, that actually, it will be as bad or worse under keir starmer, but they are both forms of socialism. i starmer, but they are both forms of socialism. . ., ,., . ~ starmer, but they are both forms of socialism. .., . ~ ., ., socialism. i will come back to that. just to say. — socialism. i will come back to that. just to say. our— socialism. i will come back to that. just to say, our economic - socialism. i will come back to that. just to say, our economic experts i just to say, our economic experts say you can have economic growth with immigration. but say you can have economic growth with immigration.— with immigration. but with the combination _ with immigration. but with the combination of _ with immigration. but with the combination of the _ with immigration. but with the combination of the five - with immigration. but with the combination of the five factors j with immigration. but with the i combination of the five factors we set out today, you cannot have growth. that is why growth is disappointing in 2023 and why we think it will disappoint in 202a. we

only succeeded in doing that with those five factors. you only succeeded in doing that with those five factors.— only succeeded in doing that with those five factors. you are claiming ou will those five factors. you are claiming you will stand _ those five factors. you are claiming you will stand a _ those five factors. you are claiming you will stand a candidate - those five factors. you are claiming you will stand a candidate in - those five factors. you are claiming you will stand a candidate in everyl you will stand a candidate in every constituency in england, wales and scotland. one of the deputy chairs of the conservative party, lee anderson, said this. if reforms do pick up a lot of us conservative mps at the next election, we will end up with a labour government. —— if reform. you claim that will be a disaster for the country, so you are actually making it easier, are you not, for keir starmer to get the downing street to mecca we are highlighting that the main two parties cannot grow the economy because of their policies. i will put you there. every question i asked, you are ignoring. i appreciate you have a message to get across. i completely understand that. but are you not making it easier for keir starmer to get to downing street, because you are saying you are going to put a reformed uk candidate in every constituency? no. that is how democracy works. if you want to be taken seriously, you have to stand everywhere. but you want to be taken seriously, you have to stand everywhere.- have to stand everywhere. but you have to stand everywhere. but you have to stand everywhere. but you have to acknowledge _ have to stand everywhere. but you have to acknowledge you - have to stand everywhere. but you have to acknowledge you are - have to stand everywhere. but you i have to acknowledge you are drawing voters from the tory party is to you. voters from the tory party is to ou. ~ . ' voters from the tory party is to ou. ~ . , ., , ., , voters from the tory party is to ou.~ . , ., you. we have different options and

oli so you. we have different options and policy so the _ you. we have different options and policy so the country _ you. we have different options and policy so the country can _ you. we have different options and policy so the country can take - you. we have different options and policy so the country can take a - policy so the country can take a look. our policy is a very different. we say both main parties will be a disaster. you have to punish failure. the tories have broken britain. we think labour will bankrupt britain. we are the only party that can save britain. you have to punish and oust the incompetent failures of 13 years of tory rule. that is important. in business, you don't reward failure ljy business, you don't reward failure by another contract, you get rid of them. . , ., .., , , them. that is what the country must do. if them. that is what the country must do- if people — them. that is what the country must do. if people agree _ them. that is what the country must do. if people agree with _ them. that is what the country must do. if people agree with you, - them. that is what the country must do. if people agree with you, that i do. if people agree with you, that is what they will do. that is where we are going up in the polls. you acknowledge that will mean that keir starmer will be the prime minister. let's wait and see.— let's wait and see. what else can ha--en?! let's wait and see. what else can happen?! that — let's wait and see. what else can happen?! that is _ let's wait and see. what else can happen?! that is how _ let's wait and see. what else can happen?! that is how democracy | happen?! that is how democracy works. i understand _ happen?! that is how democracy works. i understand how- happen?! that is how democracy i works. i understand how democracy works, works. i understand how democracy works. thank _ works. i understand how democracy works, thank you! _ works. i understand how democracy works, thank you! but _ works. i understand how democracy works, thank you! but you - works. i understand how democracy works, thank you! but you say - works. i understand how democracy works, thank you! but you say you i works. i understand how democracy i works, thank you! but you say you do not want labour in government because you say it would be a disaster. i because you say it would be a disaster. . . , , ., disaster. i want policies put out there, i disaster. i want policies put out there. iwant— disaster. i want policies put out there, i want to _ disaster. i want policies put out there, i want to shape - disaster. i want policies put out there, i want to shape and - disaster. i want policies put out - there, i want to shape and influence both main parties, recognising their main policies are wrong and they have to change course, and if not, we are heading to disaster. share have to change course, and if not, we are heading to disaster. are you auoin to we are heading to disaster. are you going to acknowledge _ we are heading to disaster. are you going to acknowledge and - we are heading to disaster. are you going to acknowledge and be - we are heading to disaster. are you| going to acknowledge and be honest and straight forward and saying... i am being honest! both parties are a

disaster in terms of their policies! let me finish the question, if i may. if you take votes from the conservative party to reform, you are making it easierfor keir starmer. are making it easier for keir starmer-— are making it easier for keir starmer. ~ . , , ., starmer. which is why today we attacked starmergeddon - starmer. which is why today we attacked starmergeddon and i starmer. which is why today we i attacked starmergeddon and want starmer. which is why today we - attacked starmergeddon and want to take votes from the labour party. how likely is that to happen? i think very likely, because most traditional working class voters feel betrayed by a labour party that is pro—immigration. but feel betrayed by a labour party that is pro-immigration.— is pro-immigration. but it is going to be either— is pro-immigration. but it is going to be either a _ is pro-immigration. but it is going to be either a conservative - is pro-immigration. but it is going to be either a conservative primel to be either a conservative prime minister or a labour one. isn't it? so you are saying i shouldn't bother at all? �* ., ._ so you are saying i shouldn't bother atall?�* ., ._ �* at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm t in: to at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask _ at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask a _ at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask a question _ at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask a question and - at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask a question and get - at all? i'm not saying anything, i'm trying to ask a question and get an | trying to ask a question and get an answer. �* ., ., ,�* trying to ask a question and get an answer. ., ,�* . , answer. both main parties' policies would be a — answer. both main parties' policies would be a catastrophe _ answer. both main parties' policies would be a catastrophe of- answer. both main parties' policies would be a catastrophe of the - would be a catastrophe of the country, and that's why we must put out our policies, which are the only way to grow the economy, to get some growth back, to make people feel better off, that is absolutely essential. otherwise, you know, run out of money and we are heading to bankruptcy. that's what we are highlighting. thanks very much for being with us.

we will speak to other political parties in the next few weeks as they begin to set out their stall. today the liberal democrats did. daisy cooper is their deputy leader. welcome. thanks for talking to our audience. you say anyone who wants rid of their conservative mp should vote liberal democrat. that is rich, considering your leader was in party with the conservatives for five years. , . with the conservatives for five ears. years. , . , ., , with the conservatives for five ears. years. , . , ., , ., with the conservatives for five ears. years. , . , ., , ., with the conservatives for five ears. years. the liberal democrats are in second place _ years. the liberal democrats are in second place to _ years. the liberal democrats are in second place to the _ years. the liberal democrats are in second place to the conservatives i years. the liberal democrats are in | second place to the conservatives in around 80 seats around the country, places we call the blue wall, if people want to get rid of the government than in those places the liberal democrats are the best party to vote for. ., ., , , to vote for. you ignored my first question. _ to vote for. you ignored my first question. the — to vote for. you ignored my first question, the audience - to vote for. you ignored my first question, the audience will- to vote for. you ignored my first question, the audience will see | question, the audience will see that. i want to go back to when your party was in government, when he refused to meet alan bates, the postmaster who expose the horizon it scandal, today he said he regretted not asking tough questions of post office managers, was not simply a

lack of curiosity or failure of judgment, a total lack of leadership? orwas judgment, a total lack of leadership? or was hejust a really weak minister? i leadership? or was he 'ust a really weak minister?h leadership? or was he 'ust a really weak minister? i think what he said toda is weak minister? i think what he said today is that _ weak minister? i think what he said today is that he _ weak minister? i think what he said today is that he does _ weak minister? i think what he said today is that he does regret - weak minister? i think what he said today is that he does regret not - today is that he does regret not asking tough and let me also say that this is a devastating miscarriage ofjustice... that this is a devastating miscarriage ofjustice. .. miscarriage of 'ustice. .. why didn't he meet with — miscarriage ofjustice. .. why didn't he meet with alan _ miscarriage ofjustice. .. why didn't he meet with alan bates _ miscarriage ofjustice. .. why didn't he meet with alan bates then? - miscarriage ofjustice. .. why didn't he meet with alan bates then? i i miscarriage ofjustice. .. why didn'tl he meet with alan bates then? i am not sure what _ he meet with alan bates then? i am not sure what he _ he meet with alan bates then? i am not sure what he did _ he meet with alan bates then? i am not sure what he did or— he meet with alan bates then? i —n not sure what he did or did not but... , ., but... he refused a meeting initially and _ but... he refused a meeting initially and said _ but... he refused a meeting initially and said a _ but... he refused a meeting initially and said a meeting. but... he refused a meeting - initially and said a meeting would serve no useful purpose. ed has said very clearly today that he feels he was deeply misled by post office buses, as were indeed ministers of every party. wow, so he is trying to divert and blame others, he was a minister, he could meet anyone. i think what we are seen as a huge miscarriage ofjustice and that's why there's now an inquiry looking into what happened. what really matters today is that the inquiry can move at pace without the post office refusing to provide or delay in providing evidence, and the conservative government have got to sort out the financial recompense

and redress for those people who are still victims of this... but and redress for those people who are still victims of this. . ._ still victims of this. .. but if ed davey had _ still victims of this. .. but if ed davey had met _ still victims of this. .. but if ed davey had met people - still victims of this. .. but if ed davey had met people like - still victims of this. .. but if ed i davey had met people like alan bates, then maybe so many lives would not have been ruined. he has said it very — would not have been ruined. he has said it very clear _ would not have been ruined. he has said it very clear today, _ would not have been ruined. he has said it very clear today, he - would not have been ruined. he has said it very clear today, he feels - said it very clear today, he feels he was deeply misled by post office boxes. i5 he was deeply misled by post office boxes. , . . he was deeply misled by post office boxes. , ., ., , ., boxes. is that a good look, blaming others when — boxes. is that a good look, blaming others when he _ boxes. is that a good look, blaming others when he was _ boxes. is that a good look, blaming others when he was actually - others when he was actually minister?— others when he was actually minister? , _ , . minister? -- misled by post office bosses macros _ minister? -- misled by post office bosses macros of _ minister? -- misled by post office bosses macros of the _ minister? -- misled by post office bosses macros of the scandal- minister? -- misled by post office bosses macros of the scandal have been going on for 20 years... i know, and had he met alan bates in 2011 or 2012, not so many lives might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that _ might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that time, _ might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that time, when _ might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that time, when it - might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that time, when it was - might have been ruined. what's clear is even at that time, when it was a i is even at that time, when it was a minister, there were criminal cases happening at the time and many people involved in those cases were actually pleading guilty. we are only now know that the reason for that was because they had been advised to do that to try and reduce the sanctions, so that was the context at the time but it has supported calls for the inquiry, supported calls for the inquiry, supported calls for it to be a judge led inquiry. —— ed davey has supported calls. he will cooperate

with the inquiry. i supported calls. he will cooperate with the inquiry.— supported calls. he will cooperate with the inquiry. i am sure he will. but what with the inquiry. i am sure he will. izeut what is — with the inquiry. i am sure he will. but what is important _ with the inquiry. i am sure he will. but what is important is _ with the inquiry. i am sure he will. but what is important is that - with the inquiry. i am sure he will. but what is important is that the i but what is important is that the financial redress is sorted by this government. plenty of your supporters want a party to stand up against brexit. they want the liberal democrats to do that, many senior party members including a frontbencher and members of the policy committee said there was a need to be bolder in the lib dems including on brexit. why won't you stand up against brexit any more? we have stand up against brexit any more? - have been clear about the fact that we do want the uk to have a really strong relationship with the eu, we do want to have the uk at the heart of europe once again, and we set out a road map to rebuild that relationship that's been so badly broken by this conservative government.— broken by this conservative government. ., ., ., government. that you do say that re'oinin: government. that you do say that rejoining the _ government. that you do say that rejoining the eu _ government. that you do say that rejoining the eu is _ government. that you do say that rejoining the eu is off _ government. that you do say that rejoining the eu is off the - government. that you do say that rejoining the eu is off the table. i | rejoining the eu is off the table. i think it is quite clear that for as long as there could be a per brexit government in this country, then of course the eu was going to have let off the table. what we are saying is... ii off the table. what we are saying is... , ., , .,

off the table. what we are saying is... if you believe in it, and you want to appeal _ is... if you believe in it, and you want to appeal to _ is... if you believe in it, and you want to appeal to those - is... if you believe in it, and you want to appeal to those voters l is... if you believe in it, and you i want to appeal to those voters who do want to rejoin the eu, you would step up and say, we want to do that one day, 0k it may take a long time, etc, but that's what we stand for. what we talked about are the things we can do right now, the ways in which the government could unilaterally try to rebuild relations with the eu, programmes we canjoin in the relations with the eu, programmes we can join in the ways we can improve the trade deal so it works better for farmers the trade deal so it works better forfarmers and small the trade deal so it works better for farmers and small business, these are all things that can happen right now, not somewhere down the line. there are things that could be happening right now, those of the things liberal democrats are calling for and things liberal democrats are calling forand campaigning things liberal democrats are calling for and campaigning for, but what we are also saying is that as we go into the next general election, liberal democrats are making the promise of a fair deal where we put fixing social care and nhs at the front and centre of our campaign. we want to solve the cost of living crisis and protect our environment, so to vote for us will deliver. thank you very much a talking to our audience, daisy cooper, deputy leader of the liberal democrats.

all of us trying to work out when the election will be held are obviously watching what's happening with the economy. last year saw soaring interest rates to deal with spiking inflation. by the end of 2023, the pm was able to say he had achieved his promise of halving inflation. so what does 2024 hold for the uk economy? in a moment, we'll talk live to the economics editor of the times, mehreen khan, and pauljohnson, director of the independent institute for fiscal studies, about what will be important to voters when it comes to the economy. first, here's ben on how things are looking here, plus with key elections across the world in 2024, the global economy too. we've been in an economic storm for much of these past 15 years, searching desperately for a safe harbour. but what will 2024 bring for households, for businesses, for the global trading system which underpins our living standards? a ray of hope or more of the same?

the big theme of 2023 was historically rapid interest rate hikes. the theme of 2024 is likely to be the impact of those rate hikes feeding through into the real economy, especially households. 1.6 million uk households will have to remortgage this year at a considerably higher rate. this shows the bank of england's projections of what happens to the total consumption power of uk households as a result of that. as this makes clear, the bulk of the pain comes in 2024. all this is creating a 50/50 chance of a recession in 2024, according to the bank of england. and bear in mind that this, of course, is very likely to be an election year. i think it's more likely than not we see the uk entering recession over the course of 2024. it's a coin toss, if you look at economic forecasts, but for me the balance of risks are skewed towards the downside

around that path. it's in part an interest rate story, the lagged effect of the sharp tightening we've seen over the last 18 months. but it's also that the pool of savings that households and companies have drawn on last year to support spending will not be there. it's not a bottomless pit of savings. that's largely exhausted and that will not be there to protect incomes into 2024. but if we do get a recession, could we see the bank of england cutting rates to prop the economy up? the bank doesn't want people tom well, bank on that, but markets are nevertheless pricing cuts in. who's right? i think we could be on the verge here of quite a significant policy mistake of keeping interest rates too high and sucking money out of the economy when actually we could be on a brighter path. it could be an unnecessary recession in 2024. so when it comes to recession risk, is every country in the same boat?

no. in america, there's talk of a soft landing, so no recession despite those interest rate hikes. could the uk be so lucky? i think we'll see a sharp downshift in growth in the us. _ and in some ways that will put it on a more light footing - than the uk. i think both will be struggling to get their heads above the water line in growth| terms during 2024. the other economic theme of 2024 could be the return of tariff man donald trump. the economic implications of that could be seismic. trump has promised an instant 10% tariff on all us imports, triple their current level. we're already in a new cold war with china, which trump instigated in 2017 with his tariffs and whichjoe biden has continued. protectionism and in the wake of the pandemic

securonomics is rising around the globe. expect vehicles to be a particularflashpoint. colossally state subsidised chinese made electric vehicles, shown in red, are already flowing into the european market, gaining market share at a quite astonishing rate. even without trump, this flow was set to ratchet up trade tensions by threatening the position of european car manufacturers. but the rest of the world has reached the stage where it's saying, "well, we're not going to let you do that. "we're not going to let you indefinitely export your electric "vehicles here and undermine the entire german auto sector." but 10% tariffs from the us, which would inevitably be met by retaliation by other countries, would put rocket boosters under the process of deglobalisation and economic fragmentation, with dire consequences for the living standards of everyone on the planet, especially the poorest. the biggest beneficiaries,

we think, of the process of globalisation we've seen, really since the end of the second world war, were those poorer countries, giving them access to huge markets with rich consumers in them. and that's been a big part of what's enabled poorer countries to catch up in income levels with the richer countries in the world. that's been a fantastic good news story, actually, for both rich and poorer countries, as it turns out. so any stalling in that would stall the catch up among poorer countries we've seen over the last part of the last 50 years. so in 2024, get ready for another year of the global economy living dangerously.

right, let's speak to the economics editor of the times, mehreen khan, and director of the institute for fiscal studies pauljohnson. welcome, both of you. last year was really tough for so many people. what is this your going to be like? i think it is worth highlighting that a lot of the trends we know about the economy over the last two years, inflation going up, prices rising, interest rates going up, the cost of living increasing, tax burden increasing, because of those things are beginning to fall into reverse, so it is worth highlighting that inflation is falling, prices are not coming down but are not going up very quickly, and as ben mentioned, i think the main driver for the uk economy will be whether the bank of england responds to this relatively sanguine outlook by cutting interest rates because that will have an immediate impact on so many parts of the economy, for borrowers, the government's own borrowing, mortgages, for businesses who want to invest, workers who want wage increases, so i think 2024 is a bit about what could be happening in the next couple of months that would

have a big impact and a lot of it will probably not be so much about the government and politics and a lot more about the technocratic and slightly boring parts of the economy, but i think that's the driving force notjust in the uk but in the global economy.— driving force notjust in the uk but in the global economy. paul, when is the bank in the global economy. paul, when is the izeank of — in the global economy. paul, when is the bank of england _ in the global economy. paul, when is the bank of england going _ in the global economy. paul, when is the bank of england going to - in the global economy. paul, when is the bank of england going to cut - the bank of england going to cut interest rates after the news of inflation coming down? thea;r interest rates after the news of inflation coming down? they have been very keen — inflation coming down? they have been very keen to _ inflation coming down? they have been very keen to say _ inflation coming down? they have been very keen to say they - inflation coming down? they have been very keen to say they will. inflation coming down? they have | been very keen to say they will not cut interest — been very keen to say they will not cut interest rates any time soon and by that— cut interest rates any time soon and by that i_ cut interest rates any time soon and by that i think they mean, not... not before — by that i think they mean, not... not before the end of this year. markeis— not before the end of this year. markets don't believe them, i think, at the _ markets don't believe them, i think, at the moment. they think interest rates _ at the moment. they think interest rates will— at the moment. they think interest rates will come down a bit before that, _ rates will come down a bit before that, we — rates will come down a bit before that, we might have some movement in the summen _ that, we might have some movement in the summer. but i think the bank quite _ the summer. but i think the bank quite like — the summer. but i think the bank quite like it— the summer. but i think the bank quite like it will be... they will want _ quite like it will be... they will want to— quite like it will be... they will want to be _ quite like it will be... they will want to be absolutely sure that inflation — want to be absolutely sure that inflation is heading clearly towards 2% before — inflation is heading clearly towards 2% before they cut interest rates —— quite rightly, they will be. forecasts say we won't get to 2% until— forecasts say we won't get to 2% until the _ forecasts say we won't get to 2% until the end of next year, 2025, even _ until the end of next year, 2025, even with— until the end of next year, 2025, even with interest rates staying where — even with interest rates staying where they are the best of this

year~ _ where they are the best of this year~ so— where they are the best of this year~ so it _ where they are the best of this year. so it will be quite difficult reverse — year. so it will be quite difficult reverse move for them to cut interest — reverse move for them to cut interest rates significantly over this year. — interest rates significantly over this year, and as i say, they will need _ this year, and as i say, they will need to— this year, and as i say, they will need to be _ this year, and as i say, they will need to be absolutely sure that inflation — need to be absolutely sure that inflation is very clearly heading to 2% and _ inflation is very clearly heading to 2% and that the economy can take those _ 2% and that the economy can take those cuts — 2% and that the economy can take those cuts. that said, as i said, i think— those cuts. that said, as i said, i think nfost— those cuts. that said, as i said, i think most economists in the markets think most economists in the markets think we _ think most economists in the markets think we will get some movement by the middle _ think we will get some movement by the middle of the year.— think we will get some movement by the middle of the year. mehreen, we heard the former _ the middle of the year. mehreen, we heard the former chief _ the middle of the year. mehreen, we heard the former chief economist - heard the former chief economist of the bank of england saying in ben's found that it is more likely than not the uk will enter a recession over the course of this year. obviously if that happens it could affect the bank of england's decision when it comes to interest rates, what you think? do you expect a recession? i rates, what you think? do you expect a recession?— a recession? i think his views a little bit out — a recession? i think his views a little bit out of _ a recession? i think his views a little bit out of consensus - a recession? i think his views a i little bit out of consensus because there is a more optimistic idea that there is a more optimistic idea that the uk will be part of this soft landing, so basically the economy will not grow very much, we will be stuck around 0%, but will not full internet technical recession territory, and to some degree it is all about small margins but i think

it does have a psychological impact because people like me will be telling you every single morning there is a recession, that impacts how people behave. it's interesting the us as part of this soft landing debate. it's quite worrying from the uk's perspective to look at the us, an economy which is outperforming most developed countries right now, their labour market, their economy is going gangbusters, the government is going gangbusters, the government is seemingly doing the writing and investing but it doesn't seem to have much of the political dividend for the democratic party and the biden administration from having this well performing economy, that's slightly dangerous for the tories and for labour, it shows even if you can manage to pull off this miraculous soft landing there is not necessarily a political dividend at the end of it because voters still don't really think things have gotten better for them. don't really think things have gotten betterfor them. ii don't really think things have gotten better for them. if you were prime minister _ gotten better for them. if you were prime minister when _ gotten better for them. if you were prime minister when would - gotten better for them. if you were prime minister when would you i gotten better for them. if you were | prime minister when would you hold the election? i prime minister when would you hold the election?— the election? i think as prime minister i _ the election? i think as prime minister i would _ the election? i think as prime minister i would hold - the election? i think as prime minister i would hold it - the election? i think as prime minister i would hold it as i the election? i think as prime minister i would hold it as it i the election? i think as prime| minister i would hold it as it is possible — minister i would hold it as it is possible because i would want to stay in _ possible because i would want to stay in downing street, but in terms of the _ stay in downing street, but in terms of the economy, i think mehreen is right, _ of the economy, i think mehreen is right, broadly speaking it will be bumbling along with not much growth

over this _ bumbling along with not much growth over this year, i think people will probably— over this year, i think people will probably be a bit better off at the end of— probably be a bit better off at the end of the year than at the beginning as a result of inflation beinq _ beginning as a result of inflation being lower, wages rising more quickly— being lower, wages rising more quickly than prices at the moment, we have _ quickly than prices at the moment, we have a — quickly than prices at the moment, we have a tax cut coming in later this week— we have a tax cut coming in later this week or— we have a tax cut coming in later this week or next week in terms of the national— this week or next week in terms of the national insurance cut, sol think— the national insurance cut, sol think people will be a little bit better— think people will be a little bit better off at the end of the year then— better off at the end of the year then they— better off at the end of the year then they are now but it will not be something that people will be sort of going. — something that people will be sort of going, yes, this is brilliant, they— of going, yes, this is brilliant, they will— of going, yes, this is brilliant, they will still probably worse off than they were at the 2019 election and actually to be worse off at the end of— and actually to be worse off at the end of a _ and actually to be worse off at the end of a parliament than at the beginning on average is pretty unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, _ unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, i_ unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, i think, unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, ithink, in unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, i think, in the unprecedented, so whilst things are moving, ithink, in the right direction _ moving, ithink, in the right direction relative to last year, which — direction relative to last year, which was _ direction relative to last year, which was pretty grim, it will be moving — which was pretty grim, it will be moving in— which was pretty grim, it will be moving in that direction pretty slowly— moving in that direction pretty slowly from a very low base. we know there will be — slowly from a very low base. we know there will be more _ slowly from a very low base. we know there will be more pressure, - slowly from a very low base. we know there will be more pressure, there i there will be more pressure, there is still pressure from conservative backbenchers for the chancellor to cut taxes ahead of any general election, is there any room to cut more taxes? that is a very good question, and i

think— that is a very good question, and i think the _ that is a very good question, and i think the chancellor will already be at the _ think the chancellor will already be at the stage think the chancellor will already be at the staa . , at the stage where he will be findin: at the stage where he will be finding any — at the stage where he will be finding any penny _ at the stage where he will be finding any penny under i at the stage where he will be finding any penny under any| at the stage where he will be i finding any penny under any couch possible. one thing that is possible is that if the penny falls, the retail price inflation index falls, the way the bank of england handles its bond portfolio, these are three major factors that could maybe leave the lbr to re—estimate its estimate made in november. one estimate was that the chancellor might have about £5 billion extra. if a 1.3 basic cat in the basic tax cut would cost him 4-5,000,000,000, that makes in the basic tax cut would cost him 4—5,000,000,000, that makes a bit of sense. not economically, butjust in terms of the numbers. —— a basic cut. so the chancellor will be looking for any possible way in which he can justify another little boost to people's incomes in the lead up to the election and hope beyond hope that makes a difference to some voters. whoever wins the election will have to raise taxes,

cut spending, or both? i certainly think they will end up cutting taxes, they think of the chancellor find some money to cut taxes this year. _ find some money to cut taxes this year, whoever wins the election will effectively _ year, whoever wins the election will effectively undo that tax cut. they might _ effectively undo that tax cut. they might increase different taxes. a bit of— might increase different taxes. a bit of background here. this parliament has probably been the biggest _ parliament has probably been the biggest tax increasing parliaments in peacetime history, so there is no question— in peacetime history, so there is no question of— in peacetime history, so there is no question of taxes at the end of the parliament — question of taxes at the end of the parliament being higher than at the start _ parliament being higher than at the start a— parliament being higher than at the start a lot — parliament being higher than at the start. a lot of that isjust bad luck— start. a lot of that isjust bad luck for— start. a lot of that isjust bad luck for the government. partly it is because — luck for the government. partly it is because of covid, of course, with a huge _ is because of covid, of course, with a huge increase in debt, and as mehreen — a huge increase in debt, and as mehreen has said, that has meant a lot of— mehreen has said, that has meant a lot of money spent on debt interest. partly, _ lot of money spent on debt interest. partly, we _ lot of money spent on debt interest. partly, we have come to the end of austerity, _ partly, we have come to the end of austerity, as — partly, we have come to the end of austerity, as it were, and spending has actually — austerity, as it were, and spending has actually risen a lot over this parliament. partly, this is the moment— parliament. partly, this is the moment demographic change is hitting us, and _ moment demographic change is hitting us, and more people over the state pension age, more spending on health and social— pension age, more spending on health and social care, and so on. those trends _ and social care, and so on. those trends will— and social care, and so on. those trends will continue, so there are some _ trends will continue, so there are some big — trends will continue, so there are some big choices around the

election _ some big choices around the election. i think that people looking _ election. i think that people looking at politicians over the next yearm _ looking at politicians over the next year... those who say they will cut taxes _ year... those who say they will cut taxes and keep them low really need to be asked, what will you be doing about— to be asked, what will you be doing about nhs— to be asked, what will you be doing about nhs waiting lists, or a justice — about nhs waiting lists, or a justice system that is frankly pretty close to collapse? what will you do _ pretty close to collapse? what will you do about local government, large parts of— you do about local government, large parts of which are going bust at the moment? _ parts of which are going bust at the moment? the space for cutting public spending _ moment? the space for cutting public spending after a decade of austerity and without much scope to cut defence — and without much scope to cut defence and so on is really, really tight. and — defence and so on is really, really tight. and if— defence and so on is really, really tight, and if you are not going to cut that — tight, and if you are not going to cut that public spending, you will not have — cut that public spending, you will not have scope for tax cuts after the next — not have scope for tax cuts after the next election. thank— the next election. thank you both very much. the uk and ten other countries have threatened a military response to the attacks by iranian—backed houthi rebels in yemen on shipping in the red sea. the group, who have been involved in a nearly decade—long civil war, say it's in retaliation to israel's war in gaza. it has led to concerns notjust for international trade but of a wider escalation of the conflict.

the uk defence secretary grant shapps has threatened "direct action" against the houthi rebels if the attacks continue. here's our international correspondentjoe inwood. now, this was one of the opening and certainly most dramatic salvoes in the houthis' recent attacks on international shipping. they released this footage showing their fighters landing they released this footage on the deck of the galaxy leader, a japanese operated cargo ship in the red sea. now, the houthis have been involved in yemen's long and bloody civil war, and are backed by iran. because iran needed a lot of proxies including hamas, including hezbollah, including other proxy militias across the arab region, they've reached out to the houthis, they empowered them through the previous wars and now of course they are backing them with military expertise, with some weaponry, and also with political cover in the region. now, as well as capturing the galaxy leader, the houthis have launched more than 100 attacks on other ships passing through the bab—el—mandeb strait and into the red sea.

as well as risking the lives of ordinary sailors, it's disrupting one of the world's most important trade routes. now, the houthis say they are targeting israeli interests, but it's led to a huge amount of shipping avoiding the region, taking the longer route around africa, and that will have consequences for the global economy. so the increases in cost that will follow from having to re—route these vessels around the cape of good hope will be felt by consumers in the fullness of time. that said, it is not all commodities that are diverting. there is still a significant amount of trade transiting through the red sea, and we would expect confidence in that region to increase as operation prosperity guardian endures. now, operation prosperity guardian that he mentioned there is the name of the us—led international response. a couple of days ago, that saw an american

helicopter destroy three houthi boats which were said to be attacking a cargo ship. over the weekend, the defence secretary grant shapps threatened direct action against the group. now, that would be a vast escalation. but also, given the houthis have survived years of saudi air strikes, would it even work? the houthis are notl a high—tech military. they are not a military that has a lot of very sophisticated i facilities that you can hit. certainly, you could target those facilities that are being used i for the launch of these drones or rockets, but that's - limited and probably- relatively easily replaced. so that's part of the problem l that the us is facing right now. now, the danger here is of escalation. the us and the uk have seemed keen to avoid israel's war in gaza expanding into a far more dangerous and unpredictable regional conflict, and yemen is one of the places that escalation could happen.

now, some say that would even play into iran's hands. they are looking for a direct confrontation, especially for the iranians, this is a very low cost way of basically fighting the west through their proxies, and they can drag this for years and years and years. so that is not exactly ideal, to give them that opportunity. this is basically an entrapment by the iranians and by the houthis. do not fall into that trap. now, in the last few hours, the us and its allies have released a further warning to the houthis, saying they will bear the consequences if the attacks continue. the question is, do they take that as a threat or an opportunity? joe inwood. who doesn't know the name luke littler now? the 16—year—old darts sensation from warrington tonight made it to the the final of the world championship — taking on the world number one, luke humphries, at ally pally. and while littler ultimately

came up short tonight, it does not matter, does it? it would have been amazing if he had won, but it is an incredible achievement. joe is at the darts club in st helens where the teenager's darts career all began. don't tell me eve ryo ne everyone has gone home because they are so disappointed and a little bit drunk?! well, it is pretty quiet here now. it was packed here earlier, when luke humphreys won. there was disappointment, as i said, and polite applause, but everyone has been trained well here. as for the other luke, luke littler, he walks away with the prize money as finalist. he is now 16 years old, old enough to buy paracetamol, but not enough to buy a pint, fireworks, or to vote. he first trained here at the age of nine. the secretary of saint helens dance academy coral

holden was there. you knew from a young age there was something different about luke littler? very different. we have seen some very good _ very different. we have seen some very good players come through this academy, _ very good players come through this academy, but luke littler is a different— academy, but luke littler is a different grade compared to all darts _ different grade compared to all darts players, notjust youngsters. he's one _ darts players, notjust youngsters. he's one of— darts players, notjust youngsters. he's one of the best in the world i've he's one of the best in the world i've ever— he's one of the best in the world i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done — i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done for _ i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done for this _ i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done for this sport _ i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done for this sport and - i've ever seen at that age. and what has he done for this sport and this l has he done for this sport and this club? certainly, earlier, this place was packed with kids, may be wanting to emulate him. yes, i think the world will want to be the _ yes, i think the world will want to be the next — yes, i think the world will want to be the next luke littler. he is such a great _ be the next luke littler. he is such a great person and a great dart player~ — a great person and a great dart player. we are so proud of him, and i player. we are so proud of him, and i can't _ player. we are so proud of him, and i can't say— player. we are so proud of him, and ican't say any— player. we are so proud of him, and i can't say any more! we are just... he lost, — i can't say any more! we are just... he lost, he _ i can't say any more! we are just... he lost, he had a chance to win! put them _ he lost, he had a chance to win! put them a _ he lost, he had a chance to win! put them a few— he lost, he had a chance to win! put them a few millimetres next year, he will put _ them a few millimetres next year, he will put it— them a few millimetres next year, he will put it right, because he's a winner. — will put it right, because he's a winner. he _ will put it right, because he's a winner, he is one of the best players in _ winner, he is one of the best players in the world. carl holden from st helens _ players in the world. carl holden from st helens dance _ players in the world. carl holden from st helens dance academy, | players in the world. carl holden i from st helens dance academy, thanks forjoining us. luke littler still works away with £200,000, and has made history as the youngest player in the world

championship. shortly, he will have a lot