you're watching the context on bbc news. here in the uk, for the first time the prime minister gives some idea when the next general election could be. in the second half of the year is rishi sunak�*s working assumption at the moment, he says. on our panel tonight, andrew fisher — columnist for the i paper and former executive director of policy for the labour party and carrie sheffield, a senior policy analyst at independent women's voice. also on the programme... the latest developments in the middle east, including the funeral of a hamas deputy leader in lebanon. thousands of people were there. prince andrew and bill clinton are named in files relating to sex offenderjeffrey epstein. we'll look at what we've learnt.

welcome to the programme. plenty of elections around the world this year. now know a bit more about what could be happening here in the uk. rishi sunak says the general election is likely to happen in the "second half of this year". he didn't rule out it happening earlier but says his "working assumption" is later this year. take a listen. so, look, my working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of this year, and in the meantime, i've got lots that i want to get on with. that means cutting people's taxes this saturday. that's a tax cut worth £450 for the average person in work. we can do that because we'd halved inflation. i want to keep going, managing the economy well and cutting people's taxes, but i also want to keep attacking illegal migration. last year, we got the numbers down by a third, and now we need to get our rwanda schema through parliament, up and running, so we have a full deterrent. and that's how we are really going to solve this problem once and for all. the leader of the opposition, sir keir starmer had this reaction. we are ready for a general election, i think the country is ready for a general election,

turn its back on this decline and usher in the hope and change the labour government can bring. the prime minister is now hinting, without setting a date, that it might be later in the year. what's he hiding? why can't he set a date? this squatting in downing street for months on end, dithering and delaying, when the country wants change, what's he hiding? that was his reaction after getting a new year pitch of his own to voters in a speech and breast. —— in bristol. starmer set out what he called "project hope" for the "downtrodden" uk. you're right to be anti—westminster, right to be angry about what politics has become but hold on to the flickering hope in your heart that things can be better because they can. you can choose it. you can choose the hope of national renewal, the responsibility of service, what politics can and should be and you can reject the pointless populist gestures,

the low road cynicism that the tories believe is all you deserve. applause now let's bring in our panel. andrew fisher — columnist for the i paper and former executive director of policy for the labour party and carrie sheffield, a senior policy analyst at independent women's voice. hello to you both. right, we will start with labour, politics, it makes sense to start with you, andrew, what do you make first of all of the timing of the general election? i all of the timing of the general election? ~ �* , election? i think it's quite predictable. _ election? i think it's quite predictable. look, - election? i think it's quite predictable. look, prime| election? i think it's quite - predictable. look, prime ministers who know they are going to lose ten to hang on for as long as possible. brown did write to the very end, john major if we cast our minds even further back to 1997, and when governments run their way out, they hope something will change and more often than not it doesn't and the polling stays roughly where we

expected it to be and they lose. rishi sunak is hanging on, hoping something comes up, but i doubt it will. ., . ~ something comes up, but i doubt it will. ., , , ., will. come back, because we also heard from _ will. come back, because we also heard from sir— will. come back, because we also heard from sir kier— will. come back, because we also heard from sir kier starmer- will. come back, because we also. heard from sir kier starmer talking about his speech for the year. we will come back to your thoughts on that in the moment. just on the timing of the election, let's go to the us. this is now potentially going to coincide with a rather important election where you are. yes, indeed. it is fixing here in the us— yes, indeed. it is fixing here in the us most likely based on the current— the us most likely based on the current polling a rematch between joe biden— current polling a rematch between joe biden and donald trump. the approval— joe biden and donald trump. the approval rating ofjoe biden has 'ust approval rating ofjoe biden has just been— approval rating ofjoe biden has just been tanking. people are not supporting what he is selling. the economics — supporting what he is selling. the economics have been devastating for the average family, tens of thousands of dollars that have been lost in _ thousands of dollars that have been lost in terms of 401(k) just because of inflation — lost in terms of 401(k) just because of inflation. so there is a 17% inflation _ of inflation. so there is a 17% inflation overall since joe biden took_ inflation overall since joe biden took office. so that is why most of the polling — took office. so that is why most of the polling if you go to real clear

politics _ the polling if you go to real clear politics stopped, my one of the most popular— politics stopped, my one of the most popular political aggregators here, all of the _ popular political aggregators here, all of the leading republican candidates are beating joe biden, including — candidates are beating joe biden, including donald trump. this could certainly be — including donald trump. this could certainly be a _ including donald trump. this could certainly be a busy _ including donald trump. this could certainly be a busy october - including donald trump. this could i certainly be a busy october november if we have these two elections on at the same time. the other point today can i suppose this is all rather overshadowed, but sir kier starmer was out there getting a big speech, almost identical timing, rishi sunak answered this timing of the election and that took over. but on the speech itself, what was he trying to achieve? �* . , ,., speech itself, what was he trying to achieve? �* . , ., , ., achieve? alchemy he sort of set out three goals. — achieve? alchemy he sort of set out three goals. one — achieve? alchemy he sort of set out three goals, one was _ achieve? alchemy he sort of set out three goals, one was to _ achieve? alchemy he sort of set out three goals, one was to distance - three goals, one was to distance himself from jeremy corbyn which he has been doing pretty much for the last four years. two was to try to set out what a labour government would do, which there wasn't really a lot of new detail or policy, and the third thing was to kind of criticise and put the boot in it a

bit, which is quite easy sport at the moment because the tories are doing disastrously. and there are real reasons for that, the cost of living crisis, inflation has been far worse here than it has been in the us, for example, the state of the us, for example, the state of the nhs and social care, the housing crisis, the various corruption and scandals that have engulfed the conservative party over the past two years. a lot of things to say and do on that for kier starmer, and he did that part quite well. i think what he lacks in the polling reflects this as well, people don't know what to labour stands for. there was a lot of talk of hope and change, and quite in orifice words, but nothing concrete about what policies will actually be brought to fundamentally make people's lives better. a lot of aspirations but not much detail, that will need to change in the run—up to an election. people are going to demand that a lot more. rishi sunak�*s polling is terrible. he's on —49 net favorability. kier starmer is as —22, which is pretty bad as well. so although labour has

a strong lead over the conservatives commence very much in the eyes of voters the kind of lesser of two evils. kier starmer almost accepted that. he said the danger facing labour is apathy. actually it is his job as labour leader to inspire people to give them hope to come out and vote and he didn't achieve that today. and vote and he didn't achieve that toda . �* . , . and vote and he didn't achieve that toda. . today. andrew, as a public service connected — today. andrew, as a public service connected you _ today. andrew, as a public service connected you just _ today. andrew, as a public service connected you just explain - today. andrew, as a public service connected you just explain to - today. andrew, as a public service connected you just explain to us i today. andrew, as a public service i connected you just explain to us why if the polling is so much in favour of the labour party, why that doesn't automatically mean an easy win because of the electoral maps and the election and results from last time. ., ,., ., ., and the election and results from last time. ., ., ., ., last time. labour have got a huge mountain to _ last time. labour have got a huge mountain to climb _ last time. labour have got a huge mountain to climb following - last time. labour have got a huge mountain to climb following the l last time. labour have got a huge i mountain to climb following the last election. that's definitely true. at the polling... labour is 17 points ahead. it looks like it will win in ijy ahead. it looks like it will win in by elections, labour has been because although labour hasn't been doing, you know, well, in itself, if you look at the polling in the

opinion of labour and kier starmer, it is doing far better than conservatives, it is hard to express just how bad public opinion is on rishi sunak. it's kind of near where borisjohnson where when they were sacked or deposed, rather, as prime minister. he is in a really bad state, and there are, as i say, material reasons. people are experiencing life very badly at the moment. kier starmer is seen as the lesser of two evils at the moment. thank you you both, back with you in a moment. to the middle east now, in lebanon, where the funeral of the deputy leader of hamas has been taking place in the lebanese capital beirut. saleh al—arouri was killed on tuesday. this is the funeral procession al—arouri and two other officials carried through the streets. he was assassinated in a drone strike on tuesday. the leader of the lebanese militant group hezbollah, has threatened a decisive response to the killing. israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. our correspondent hugo bachega has more.

crowds gathered in beirut for the funeral of saleh al—arouri, the deputy hamas leader who was assassinated in an attack here in beirut on tuesday. many were carrying placards with his face and also waving hamas and palestinian flags. now, this assassination was a blow for hamas, but it also hit its allies here in lebanon, hezbollah, because this attack happened in an area of beirut that is a stronghold of hezbollah. so this has raised fears of a wider conflict in the region. but there have been some indications that both hezbollah and israel could be trying to avoid a major escalation in the crisis here. the israeli defense minister, yoav gallant, reaffirmed israel's commitment to resolve the situation along the border with lebanon

so that thousands of residents have been evacuated because of these constant hezbollah attacks could return to their homes. but he also said there was a short window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution to this crisis with hezbollah. and these comments followed a speech made yesterday by hassan nasrallah, the influential leader of hezbollah, in which he said that the assassination that happened here in beirut was a flagrant israeli aggression. but crucially, he did not make any threats to attack israel. hassan nasrallah is expected to address his supporters again on friday, and any response from hezbollah is likely to be limited, measured because he knows that he needs to prevent any escalation that could trigger a massive israeli response and another potential catastrophic conflict for lebanon.

the us secretary of state antony blinken is leaving for the middle east in a few hours time. mr blinken will spend a week visiting israel and the west bank, as well as turkey, greece, jordan, qatar, the united arab emirates, saudi arabia and egypt. the visit comes during heightened concerns that the nearly three—month old conflict is spreading beyond gaza. let's hear from the state department spokesperson. the secretary will focus on a number of critical issues on this trip. first, he will discuss immediate measures to increase substantially humanitarian assistance to gaza. second, he will discuss with the government of israel its ongoing military campaign against hamas to ensure october 7th cannot be repeated, including plans to transition to the next phase of operations and the steps israel can take to better protect civilians and how to enable palestinians to return to their homes and neighbourhoods as fighting curtails. third, he will discuss ongoing efforts to bring home the remaining hostages,

including the american citizens who are still unaccounted for. fourth, he will focus on — as he has consistently since october 7th — preventing the conflict from expanding. he will discuss specific steps parties can take, including how they can use their influence with others in the region to avoid escalation. it is in no one's interest, not israel's, not the region's, not the worlds for this conflict to spread beyond gaza. finally, he will emphasise the responsibility of all parties to help chart a path forward for gaza that achieves lasting security for both israelis and palestinians. israel's defence minister, yoav gallant, has also been outlining israel's plans for the next stage of its war in gaza, with a new targeted approach in the northern section, while continuing its search for hamas leaders in the south. in a statement, mr gallant said that after the war,

hamas would no longer control gaza, which would be run by palestinian bodies, as long as there was no threat to israel. mara rudman is a former senior us national security official. here's what she thinks that means in practise.. i believe that israeli defence ministers comments are probably carefully selected because he has his own internal politics of the prime minister, prime minister netanyahu, who has not been useful and productive than thinking about day after. so the united states has talked about the need for a revitalised palestinian authority to have a key role in gaza. palestinian authority in charge in the west bank and still actually has a number of people all that have been on its payroll in gaza and has the element of the structure to be able to take over, but it is going to need a lot of help in doing

so from the international community, from israel as well, so i believe that that is what needs to happen. i believe that as part of what antony blinken will be talking about when he is there, and i hear the defence minister's comments as leading away open for that while implicitly acknowledging that he has a prime minister, netanyahu, who has tried to close the door to that. bringing back in our panel. the us, it seems, a big role to play here in the next stage of this war. yes. the next stage of this war. yes, and, the next stage of this war. yes, and. you _ the next stage of this war. yes, and. you know. _ the next stage of this war. yes, and, you know, certainly - the next stage of this war. yes, and, you know, certainly i - the next stage of this war. 1a: and, you know, certainly i wish the best for our president, even though i am conservative, i think that overall he has done better than i expected in terms of being a voice for israel. i think the fact that

you have the senior leader who was killed from hamas, you know, my opinion, joe biden has been extraordinarily weak. it goes to iran. iran is bankrolling almost all of this, to a large degree much of it. and joe biden has shown tremendous weakness, and unlike his predecessor, donald trump, donald trump pulled out of the iranian nuclear deal, he was adamant about maintaining and tightening sanctions against iran, meanwhilejoe biden has done everything he can to loosen sanctions, so i believe that part of what is happening, the middle east on fire, is because of the weakness ofjoe biden. so i wish anthony plank in the best, but i think fundamentally and thus we see more strength against iran, this will be a bridge to nowhere. aha, strength against iran, this will be a bridge to nowhere.— strength against iran, this will be a bridge to nowhere. a long to do list here for— a bridge to nowhere. a long to do list here for anthony _ a bridge to nowhere. a long to do list here for anthony blank- a bridge to nowhere. a long to do list here for anthony blank and. l list here for anthony blank and. absolutely. there is a real risk of this conflict —

absolutely. there is a real risk of this conflict heightening. we've seen _ this conflict heightening. we've seen israel, it is israel, although neither— seen israel, it is israel, although neither have confirmed or denied carrying — neither have confirmed or denied carrying out that assassination within— carrying out that assassination within lebanon. that is a violation of lebanese territory, weather, i don't _ of lebanese territory, weather, i don't think— of lebanese territory, weather, i don't think any of us which shed nrany— don't think any of us which shed many tears _ don't think any of us which shed many tears for the palestinians assassinated, but five other people were killed, but, you know, there is also the _ were killed, but, you know, there is also the threats to shipping in the red sea — also the threats to shipping in the red sea. you've got the wider conflict — red sea. you've got the wider conflict going on as well in syria, the bombing by turkey of the kurdish population— the bombing by turkey of the kurdish population in the north of iraq and elsewhere — population in the north of iraq and elsewhere as well. so there is a real regional risk here and there are multiple players involved in the terrorists— are multiple players involved in the terrorists acts going on. a lot of it saudi — terrorists acts going on. a lot of it saudi funded as well which the us has backed for decades as has the uk. has backed for decades as has the uk and _ has backed for decades as has the uk. and we consider like the us as well, _ uk. and we consider like the us as well, we _ uk. and we consider like the us as well, we are — uk. and we consider like the us as well, we are continuing to arm israel. — well, we are continuing to arm israel, which is going before the international court ofjustice next week, _ international court ofjustice next week, i_ international court ofjustice next week, i believe, because of the south _ week, i believe, because of the south african application accused of

genocide _ south african application accused of genocide or intent to genocide. so there _ genocide or intent to genocide. so there are — genocide or intent to genocide. so there are serious things going on here _ there are serious things going on here 22 — there are serious things going on here. 22 and have thousands palestinians have been killed. i suspect, — palestinians have been killed. i suspect, unfortunately, we are going to be living _ suspect, unfortunately, we are going to be living with the ramifications of this— to be living with the ramifications of this both in the middle east and unfortunately on western soil in the uk and _ unfortunately on western soil in the uk and in _ unfortunately on western soil in the uk and in the us as well for years to come — uk and in the us as well for years to come. just as we were after iraq as well. — to come. just as we were after iraq as well. , , ., to come. just as we were after iraq aswell. , ., ., as well. just on the politics, but the election _ as well. just on the politics, but the election this _ as well. just on the politics, but the election this year, - as well. just on the politics, but the election this year, do - as well. just on the politics, but the election this year, do these | the election this year, do these kinds of issues play a big parts, ray said, like most countries, its domestic issues that dominate? it’s domestic issues that dominate? it's ve domestic issues that dominate? it�*s very interesting, if you trackjoe biden's approval rating, when it really started to nosedive, it actually began in august of 2021, and that was the pull—out in afghanistan. that's when you saw these horrific images of these people holding onto the wheels of planes, desperate to get out. my brother is a captain in the us army and wejust got brother is a captain in the us army and we just got at one of the interpreters who is helping his

supervisors units, and it does now, you know, two and a half years later, so these lives have the money been slaughtered, in many cases, and 13 american military lives where lost in that botched pull—outs, and “p lost in that botched pull—outs, and up to $80 billion of equipment were left behind, that's equipment that could've been used in ukraine or to support the efforts to uproot thomas. so that is really when it happened, butjoe biden took a nosedive and he is never recovered from that, if you look, again and track it. so it does play a big welcome i think overall the sense of global chaos, i would also argue that the invasion of ukraine was incentivised by the weakness ofjoe biden, in part because inside the weakness ofjoe biden in afghanistan and said i'm going to be a predator and said i'm going to be a predator and prey on the sends people next door and, you know, hejust thought that the us wouldn't do anything about it. i think the fact that that's overall global sense that the united states is weak, that we are

not our naval power, for example, is just not even close to where it needs to be to combat the need arise in china. so i think it will play a big role. ithink in china. so i think it will play a big role. i think there are many other factors big role. i think there are many otherfactors as well big role. i think there are many other factors as well that i mentioned, the economics of biden is probably a strong contender. haste mentioned, the economics of biden is probably a strong contender. we must leave it there- — back with you in just a moment. stay with us. this is bbc news. let's look at some other stories making news... notts county council has declared a major incident in the area due to rising water levels on the river trent caused by storm henk. it says villages along the trent valley are most at risk and that water levels could reach as high as they ve been since 2000. a row about emergency cover has broken out between nhs chiefs and union leaders, as a six—day strike by england's junior doctors enters its second day. the doctors' union has accused health leaders of misusing the system for calling doctors back to work when patient

safety is at risk. but nhs england insists they were genuine requests for help. glynisjohns, the british actress who played mrs banks in the 1964 film "mary poppins" has died at the age of 100. she appeared in dozens of films during a career spanning more than 60 years. she memorably sang "send in the clowns", which stephen sondheim wrote just for her, in the original production of "a little night music". you're live with bbc news. prince andrew is among a string of high profile associates and friends of the late convicted sex offenderjeffrey epstein who've been named in newly released us court documents. the 900 pages contain dozens of references to the king's brother, including testimony from a young woman who says that prince andrew groped her. the records form part of a civil case against ghislaine maxwell, epstein's british ex—girlfriend who's injail in the us for assisting him.

prince andrew has previously denied all the allegations against him. our north america correspondent gary o'donoghue has more. jeffrey epstein was a billionaire financier, but he was also a serial abuser of underage girls. he knew some of the best known faces on the planet, from british royalty to pop stars to former presidents. these latest court documents contain more than 60 references to prince andrew and some to bill clinton. back in 2002, donald trump described him as "a terrific guy and a lot of fun to be with". neither of the former presidents have been accused of wrongdoing in the epstein case, but prince andrew's long friendship with epstein was what ended his public royal role. these latest documents contain testimony from one woman who said prince andrew touched her breast while holding the hand of a puppet of himself against her other breast.

buckingham palace has in the past categorically denied all allegations. another of epstein's accusers, virginia giuffre, said she'd met andrew on a number of occasions and been forced to have sex with the prince when she was 17 years old. despite a photo showing them together, the prince said he had no recollection of meeting her. and i've said consistently and frequently that we never had any sort of sexual contact whatever. in 2022, the prince settled a civil case brought by virginia giuffre against him for an undisclosed amount and withdrew from public life. the documents also contain some bizarre elements, including an email to one—time girlfriend ghislaine maxwell, who's serving 20 years for sex trafficking. in the poorly spelt message, epstein offers to pay anyone who would deny that the late

renowned physicist stephen hawking had taken part in an orgy on epstein's private island. this is the first release of documents in this particular case relating to epstein. there are more court files to come. wa nt to want to bring you right up to date with two of our main stories this hour, we will start in the middle east, and gaza, and update a few hours ago from the defence minister of israel. just as we watch, these are life pictures from the south of israel over to the gaza strip. but we have heard from the defence minister, israel's plans for the next stage of its war and gaza with a new more targeted approach in the northern section was the first detail, continuing pursuit of hamas

leaders in the south. but in the statement, also went on to talk about what would happen after military operations, affectively, said that after the war, hamas would no longer control gaza, guys that would be run by palestinian bodies, so long as there is no threat to israel and that israel would reserve operation of freedom of action, that there would be no israeli civilian presence there. so that update a few hours ago now coming from the defence minister there. a second veltman today, our lead story, in fact, this hour has been here in the uk, politics, general election, we have a bit more guidance from the prime minister as to when that general election here in the uk will be taking place. it is towards the end of the year, according to rishi

sunak. now, elections could have been held in the may time. we are expecting it to happen sometime in this year, there can be an election in the first month of next year, but rishi sunak their speaking earlier and was asked a question by a reporter about the timing of the election, plenty of speculation about it and he confirmed that in his mind, his working assumption would be that it would take place in the second half of the year. so, no early general election. we got a response straightaway from the labour party and opposition leaders saying that they wanted an election as soon as possible and they accused rishi sunak of effectively squatting in downing street. we will have plenty more political reaction to that and i will be back with all the headlines injust that and i will be back with all the headlines in just a that and i will be back with all the headlines injust a couple headlines in just a couple of minutes' time. stay with us. and the list onjones. this is bbc news. ——

i'm lewis vaughn list onjones. this is bbc news. —— i'm lewis vaugthones. hello there. as we head towards our first full weekend of january, the weather story is on the change. somewhat drier conditions are expected by the weekend, but before that, we've got this area of cloud that's bringing some persistent rain across channel—facing coasts. so it arrived in the south—west, some of it quite heavy at times, accompanied by gale—force gusts of winds on exposed coasts in the channel. and that is going to continue to drift its way steadily eastwards. it means that there will be some difficult driving conditions if you're out and about on the roads over the next few hours. this was the isle of wightjust before darkness arrived, and you can see there are certainly some localised flooding in the area. now that rain will continue to drift its way south and east. it may lingerfor a time across the east midlands, lincolnshire, east anglia as well. a few scattered showers and stronger winds across eastern scotland and some coastal showers out to the west, but sandwiched in between the two, some clearer skies and we could have some patchy mist and fog forming by morning. now the low pressure still sitting

up into the far north will give stiff winds and showers into the northern isles and eastern scotland, but a ridge of high pressure is slowly building in. so there will be some showers out to the east, a legacy of cloud east of the pennines across england. further west, some brighter, sunnier spells with a few scattered showers driven in by that north—westerly wind. temperatures are likely to peak into single figures for many into the afternoon, so we're looking at around 4—9 degrees, pretty much where they should be for this time of year. but as we move out of friday into the start of the weekend, that high pressure's continuing to build in. the isobars open up, the winds falling light. again some patchy fog could be an issue first thing on saturday morning. we still keep a risk of some showers and introduce some strong wind across the northern isles, but it's going to be a chilly start to saturday. low single figures in towns and city centres. just below, a touch of frost likely away from the breeze. now high pressure is set to establish itself for the start of the weekend, and as the wind

direction swings in a clockwise direction around that high, we're either going to have an easterly or a north—easterly, which at times will drag in quite a lot of cloud off the north sea. so, yes, we're going to be chasing cloud amounts around, but look at this. it's going to be dry, settled with some sunshine at times, but we'll need to look out for overnight frost and fog.

hello, i'm lewis vaughanjones. you're watching the context on bbc news. an extremely rare half male, half female bird has been spotted— and captured on camera. millions of young people in china are struggling to find a job as the country's economic downturn leads to historically high youth unemployment. more than one in five 16 to 2a—year—olds are jobless in china, although it s difficult to know the realfigure after the country stopped releasing the statistics. fixing the crisis could be one of the biggest challenges facing the government in 202a. our china correspondent laura bicker has been to south—west china to meet young people who graduated last year to find out how they re coping. joy is the first person in herfamily to get

a university degree.