down. it will be drier, calming down. it will be drier, thank goodness. cold air with it. you will notice a change in the feel of the weather. not completely dry out there. quite a lot of rain right now across the north of scotland, a bit of snow mixing in ever higher ground. cloud and showery rain over central and eastern england. even further west the shower. clear spells allow temperatures to drop, meaning frost, patchy fog, and with the ground so wet right now, anywhere where the temperatures drop to freezing or below, we are likely to freezing or below, we are likely to see icy stretches during tomorrow morning. during tomorrow, we will still see this band of cloud and showery rain across eastern england, and a few showers elsewhere, but it will be much drier than it has been. there will be some spells of sunshine. those parts of wales, the midlands, northern england so badly affected by flooding looking mostly dry. a chilly day, and that leads into a cold night. saturday night into a cold night. saturday night into sunday morning will bring a widespread frost, lows of —40 —5, so

again, patchy fog, and ice. —— —1i widespread frost, lows of —40 —5, so again, patchy fog, and ice. -- -4 or -5. if again, patchy fog, and ice. -- -4 or —5. if you showers across the far north of scotland and maybe north—east england. otherwise, fine. spells of sunshine, really cold if fog lingers, and even if it doesn't, highs of 5—6. high pressure really establishing itself through the weekend, staying with us into next week. but with the isobars are squeezing together in the south, that shows it will be really quite windy, a significant wind chill making it feel sub—0 across southern parts as we head through monday and tuesday. and further north, it will not be as windy, but here, we will have mist and fog, which will make it feel cold as well. but at least it feel cold as well. but at least it is dry. indeed. thanks, ben. and that's bbc news at ten. newsnight isjust getting under way on bbc two with victoria derbyshire. on bbc one, it's time to join our colleagues for the news where you are. goodnight.

america, as we begin this election year, we must be clear, democracy is on the ballot. your freedom is on the ballot. who's going to be the next us president? tonight, the first campaign speeches of 2024 by biden and trump — the incumbent has claimed this evening the man set to be his republican rival in the contest is a danger to american democracy.

irrespective of the 91 criminal charges donald trump faces — is he going to beat president biden this time around? he has literally just he has literallyjust walked off stage. let's have a listen. -- on staue. stage. let's have a listen. -- on stage- ten _ stage. let's have a listen. -- on stage- ten days _ stage. let's have a listen. -- on stage. ten days from now, - stage. let's have a listen. -- on stage. ten days from now, thisl stage. let's have a listen. -- on i stage. ten days from now, this will be the _ stage. ten days from now, this will be the most — stage. ten days from now, this will be the most important year of your entire _ be the most important year of your entire lives — be the most important year of your entire lives. i said that in 2016 and i_ entire lives. i said that in 2016 and i believed then and i believe this is— and i believed then and i believe this is much more important, our country— this is much more important, our country is — this is much more important, our country is going to hell, if you don't — country is going to hell, if you don't mind _ country is going to hell, if you don't mind me using that horrible word~ _ don't mind me using that horrible word. ., .., ., , don't mind me using that horrible word. ., ., , , ., word. you can hear he is so up for the fight- — word. you can hear he is so up for the fight. irrespective _ word. you can hear he is so up for the fight. irrespective of - word. you can hear he is so up for the fight. irrespective of the - the fight. irrespective of the criminal charges he faces, is he going to beat president biden this time? we'll ask veteran pollster frank luntz. here, in ourforthcoming election, the nhs is one of the most important

issues for you when it comes to voting. tonight we'll shine alight on the nhs�*s problems — and ask whether they can be fixed. i think the system is beginning to collapse. from the patient�*s' perspective, they can see they are not getting through the system. a former tory energy minister has announed this evening he's quitting in protest at the government's plan to issue new north sea oil and gas licences — meaning another difficult by—election for the prime minister. and this is back in the charts... # it's murder on the dance floor # but you better not steal the moves # dj, gonna burn this goddamn house right down... # ..because of the success of the film saltburn. we'll ask sophie ellis—bextor what she thinks about the revivial of one of her greatest hits from 22 years ago. the race for the white house officially begins in less than two weeks, and in the last hour president biden has said his likely

republican rival donald trump is a danger to democracy — in a speech to mark three years since the us capitol riots. meanwhile mr trump is about to address his supporters. mr biden's net approval rating right now is minus 16 points. we will send a thundering message to cricket _ we will send a thundering message to cricketjoe _ we will send a thundering message to cricketjoe biden. he is a crooked manm _ donald trump is leading the polls in the swing states where the election will be decided — that's despite facing multiple criminal charges. this us election looks set to be the most divisive and polarised in modern times. so, what can we read into both men's words this evening? our international correspondent joe inwood is here. in the last hour, the two men who look most likely to be facing off for the us presidency come

november have both been on stage. president biden a couple of hours ago, and this was the scene is president trump's supporters waited for him. now, as you might expect, the tones of their speeches was very different, but their overarching themes were all about american democracy. this is not rhetorical, academic or hypothetical. whether democracy is still america's sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time. and it's what the 2024 election is all about. we are going to defeat crooked joe biden— we are going to defeat crooked joe biden and — we are going to defeat crooked joe biden and we are going to make america — biden and we are going to make america great again. there is one event that is central to all of this. this is a campaign ad by harry dunn. he was a police officer during the storming of the capitol onjanuary the 6th — and hasjust announced he is running for congress as a democrat. that event was the culmination of what became known as the big lie, the claims by the trump campaign

that the election was stolen. hundreds have been convicted for their actions that day. president trump has been charged with "a wide—ranging conspiracy" to defraud the electorate. with the same two men looking set to go head to head again — january the 6th could become a central theme over the next year. i think both parties will focus a great deal onjanuary i think both parties will focus a great deal on january the 6th i think both parties will focus a great deal onjanuary the 6th in this campaign. i think both of them have strategic reasons to do so and they are going to try to take advantage of those. obviously different perspectives in their approach and their interpretations, but i think that reflects the division that we see in american society today. if you want to understand just how polarised the us is right now — look at this data. it found nearly 90% of democrats think a second trump term would damage democracy. with just over 80% of republicans thinking the same about a second biden term.

but what's really interesting is that more than half of independent voters think a second term for either man would negatively affect us democracy. i think we are probably as divided as we have seen certainly in my lifetime. but even agreeing on the rules of the game. and when you have that for apart, it is difficult to predict what is going to happen and we don't have solutions for moving forward. it's going to take a lot of time, and there is every reason to believe that we are at risk of more political violence. and while there are of course many other issues facing the us electorate — it seems it is american democracy that will not only be a deciding factor in this election — but, some say, at stake.

let's speak now to frank luntz, veteran republican party pollster and consultant. thank you for talking to our audience. mr biden's approval ratings have continued to slide, whereas the 91 criminal charges donald trump faces appear to be making him stronger, why? ishield. making him stronger, why? well, it's the feelin: making him stronger, why? well, it's the feeling that _ making him stronger, why? well, it's the feeling that donald _ making him stronger, why? well, it's the feeling that donald trump - making him stronger, why? well, it's the feeling that donald trump is - making him stronger, why? well, it's the feeling that donald trump is a - the feeling that donald trump is a victim, that he is being persecuted, that this is politics as usual, or politics that are worse, and in fact every time donald trump got indicted, his numbers went up. every time he got thrown off the ballot, in colorado and maine, his numbers strengthened. the intensity of donald trump is greater than any candidate i've ever seen, at the same moment thatjoe biden's numbers continue to fall, and you now have to say that donald trump actually has the advantage in november. so, from the point of view of the

democrats, should they become for joe biden to step aside, or is that just completely impractical chaotic? it's completely impractical and chaotic. and yes, they should be calling for it. you have a relatively strong economy. you have very low unemployment. inflation is finally in check. joe biden can claim that he turned the economy. the numbers suggest he has. the stock market is set in record numbers. people are better off today than they were four years ago, and yet his numbers are atrocious. in the number one reason why is not his record, it is his age. there are too many photos that are turning against him because they simply think he is too old to do the job well. == him because they simply think he is too old to do the job well.— too old to do the “ob well. -- too many voters. — too old to do the job well. -- too many voters. he is _ too old to do the job well. -- too many voters. he is 81, _ too old to do the job well. -- too many voters. he is 81, donald i too old to do the job well. -- too - many voters. he is 81, donald trump is 77, so why is it fewer voters a see donald trump as an old contender?— see donald trump as an old

contender? well, you have to look at... you contender? well, you have to look at--- you saw. _ contender? well, you have to look at... you saw, the _ contender? well, you have to look at... you saw, the audience - contender? well, you have to look at... you saw, the audience saw. contender? well, you have to look. at... you saw, the audience saw the two gentlemen competing for the presidency, they see them side by side, trump acts ten years younger. trump has his problems and it is hard for me to say as an american poster that he actually has the advantage when he's been indicted 91 times. —— and american poster. and yet the numbers from biden continue to deteriorate and they do so among voters who matter for democrats, younger voters, 18 to 29, african—americans, for donald trump is now getting 25% of the male black vote and the spanish and latinos. the latest polling has donald trump winning among this group. if these numbers continue, donald trump will be elected despite all the reasons why he should be defeated. i’m be elected despite all the reasons why he should be defeated. i'm going to inter'ect why he should be defeated. i'm going to interject at — why he should be defeated. i'm going to interject at this _ why he should be defeated. i'm going to interject at this point _ why he should be defeated. i'm going to interject at this point with - why he should be defeated. i'm going to interject at this point with real- to interject at this point with real polls in the last few years, mr biden beat mr trump in 2020 and then

in the mid—term elections of 2022. absolutely, and in fact the issues that would help the democrats, one of them is the legalisation of marijuana, that will bring out younger voters, and the other what is abortion, with the republicans getting crushed. so democrats are smart enough to bring those two issues to the forefront, that could change the entire equation. but as things stand right now, biden was �*s personal numbers are worse than trump, his favourability is worse than donald trump and the key for america is not the popular vote, it's the electoral college. and in state after state that are critical, donald trump has a narrow lead. thank you very much for talking to our audience, we appreciate it. no doubt we will speak again over the coming months. the prime minister's facing another challenging by—election after the former energy minister chris skidmore posted on x tonight he was quitting "as soon as possible" in protest at his government's plans to issue new oil and gas licences.

joe is here. what else did mr skidmore say in his statement? it’s what else did mr skidmore say in his statement? �* , ., ., statement? it's quite a long statement. _ statement? it's quite a long statement. he _ statement? it's quite a long statement. he i _ statement? it's quite a long statement. he i think- statement? it's quite a long statement. he i think is - statement? it's quite a long| statement. he i think is well statement? it's quite a long - statement. he i think is well known, probably well respected in her mental circles but he's not a nationwide name. yes, he said wants to stand down as an mpas —— asap but we already knew he was standing down at the next election. downing street are not commenting but someone might have. one government source telling me mr skidmore has, quote, chosen green grandstanding over real action to reduce emissions. that's because at the heart of this statement mr skidmore is very clear that he objects to the offshore petroleum licensing bill, mps are expected to vote on that on monday and that would guarantee annual oil and gas licensing rounds. mr skidmore has said this in his statement tonight. we cannot expect other countries to

phase out their fossil fuels when at the same time, we continue to issue licences to open —— or to open new oilfields. he also licences to open —— or to open new oil fields. he also says, licences to open —— or to open new oilfields. he also says, it licences to open —— or to open new oil fields. he also says, it is a tragedy that the uk has been allowed to lose its climate leadership at a time in our businesses, industries, universities and civil society organisations are providing first—class leadership and expertise to so many across the world. he first-class leadership and expertise to so many across the world. he was the ener: to so many across the world. he was the energy minister _ to so many across the world. he was the energy minister that _ to so many across the world. he was the energy minister that signed - to so many across the world. he was the energy minister that signed netl the energy minister that signed net zero by 2050 into law?— zero by 2050 into law? exactly and since then rishi _ zero by 2050 into law? exactly and since then rishi sunak_ zero by 2050 into law? exactly and since then rishi sunak has - zero by 2050 into law? exactly andj since then rishi sunak has watered down that a bit, he is focusing on energy security, some believe that was a technique to try and foster division within the labour party, similarly tonight it has fostered some division in the conservative party. as for the seat, kings were gloucestershire, 11,000 conservative majority, labour could win it but it would be split up under boundary changes which means if the labour party do win that seat at the by—election, the new mp could potentially be the answer to a political quiz question and only

survive in parliament for a matter of months. survive in parliament for a matter of month-— survive in parliament for a matter of months. ., ,, , ., , . well, let's talk more about the climate and the environment, because at least a thousand homes have been flooded in england this week, as you probably know, after heavy rain and a powerful storm. a major incident was declared yesterday around the river trent in nottinghamshire. for some, it's the fourth time they have been overwhelmed by water and it's utterly crushing and demoralising — not to mention expensive. labour has today accused the government of being asleep at the wheel, saying if it wins the election it would convene a taskforce to focus on the defences intended to protect communities from flooding. so how prepared is the uk for flooding and why does this keep happening? here's kate lamble. fields of water, homes damaged, journeys disrupted. heavy rains prompted almost 300 flood warnings across england today.

weather like this is predicted to become more common as the climate changes. warmer air hold more moisture. so the intensity of rainfall is likely to increase, raising the risk of flooding. the government has already set out plans for the uk to become more prepared, resilient, although there aren't any specific targets for what resilient looks like. i think the government is taking it seriously. they are investing more in flood defences than they have done previously, than previous governments have, more than 5 billion over six years. and the changes as well that they're bringing into farm subsidies which explicitly reward farmers for actions that can help mitigate flooding. there are some arguments the uk has already become better at managing flooding. the summer of 2007, 55,000 homes and businesses were flooded and in the winter of 2015—16, there was around 21000 and in the winter of 2019—20, there was 4000.

it's tricky to rely on these different events in different parts of the country for an exact trend. but the ambition is to go further. in 2020 the government doubled the capital investment for flood and coastal defence, committing almost £5.6 billion over the six years before 2027. that funding was meant to protect over 300,000 extra homes but as costs soared due to inflation, plans were cut back. it's now predicted that funding will only impact 200,000 extra homes, a 40% fall. at the same time, the environment agency found a £34 million shortfall in its budget to maintain existing flood protection. the national audit office has found that as a result, just over 200,000 homes have been at an increased flood risk. the environmental campaign

group greenpeace say their investigations have found further cause for concern. england's flood defences are in a very poor state. our investigation found 7% of high consequence flood defences in england are rated poor or very poor by the environment agency. that number gets even higher in areas that were poorly flooded just today, so in hampshire, in herts, for example we found that 42% of flood defences were rated poor or very poor. that's dangerous. the environment agency says defences are regularly inspected. a low rating doesn't necessarily mean they'd structurally failed. for now, though, the clean—up has begun. residents can only wonder when the next floods will arrive. coming up, we will talk to sophie ellis—bextor because it is friday night and her hit from all those

years ago is back in the charts. we'll talk to her in the next few minutes. is the nhs working? it may boast dedicated staff, world—class treatments and be completely free to use, but long waiting lists, crumbling buildings and unprecedented industrial action have taken their toll. and today the rcn in northern ireland announced their nursing members will be joining a one—day strike onjanuary 18th. patient satisfaction has never been as bad as it is now. so in an election year, what are the biggest challenges and can they be fixed? joe pike's been digging into the potential policy problems ahead. 2024 in the nhs started a lot like 2023 — with strikes. this patient satisfaction is at its lowest level since records began and plans to change that are likely to be at the heart of the general election. the challenges and crises seem constant,

but we're going to try and whittle down the major issues facing the nhs to just four. and we'll start with the one picked up by pollsters as a big concern for voters — the time it takes to get treated. a year ago, rishi sunak made it one of his top five priorities. nhs waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly. that in itself was an acknowledgement of the scale of the crisis — and it's backed up by data. the number of people in england waiting to access planned treatment, that's non—emergency procedures like hip replacements, hit a record high last year at 6.44 million, and a lot, just shy of 400,000, are waiting more than a year. if you're waiting that long, your condition might deteriorate, so you might get worse. many people have multiple conditions, so they might be managing diabetes whilst on a waiting list for another intervention and their diabetes could worsen, so their condition

could get worse, meaning they need more intensive support from health care. and then yes, unfortunately, in the worse scenarios, people may well die whilst they're waiting. is there any easy way of solving this? how do you bring those numbers down? for the last seven or eight years, we've seen a growing gap between the capacity in our health care service and the demand, the need out there in our communities for health care services. so what we need governments to do is begin to rebalance that. so that's about more staff across our health care system, it's about better technology, so better diagnostic equipment, better access to diagnostics, so it's really about boosting the capacity in the sector. the second major challenge for the nhs concerns the gatekeepers to most forms of care and the place where many patientjourneys begin — the gp surgery. can i help you? at this practice in liverpool, the morning rush is often relentless.

between sort of eight o'clock and maybe ten, it's quite hectic because the phones are ringing off the pip and everyone wants to be seen. the gp is absolutely swamped because, you know, some days, we could have 60 patients ring of a morning and we've only got three gps. in october 2022, gps held about 32 million appointments. a year on, that had risen to 34 million, but still not enough to meet rising demand. meanwhile, the numbers of gps are falling — from 30,000 in england in 2015 down to 27,000 last year. doctor rob barnett has been treating patients here... hi, dr barnett, how are you doing? ..since the 1980s, but in recent years, recruiting gps has been tough. if i go back 10, 15 years, when we were looking to take on another gp, we had something like 50 applicants. in this last year, actually, we were struggling to get someone. how do you feel the system is working at the moment?

i think the system is beginning to collapse. you know, i think from the patients' perspective, they can see they're not getting through the system. care is, not only is it fragmented, but actually, patients just aren't managing to get through a health care system from primary to secondary. next up, staffing. the number of people working in the nhs is growing, but not fast enough. there are currently more than 100,000 vacancies and by 2037, that number could reach 360,000. nhs england's long—term workforce plan includes an expansion of medical schools and training places across a number of disciplines, but it won't bear fruit until the mid—2030s. in the interim, the health service is grappling with the fallout of strikes. during december�*s three—day walk—out ofjunior doctors in england, 88,000 appointments were cancelled.

overall, since industrial action began last year, more than 1.2 million appointments have been affected. the government cite it as one of the key reasons waiting lists remain stubbornly long. the crunch point in march, when we have the pay review bodies who are going to be looking at the... what they're going to suggest. and we could have a situation, i think, there where the pay review bodies suggest an uplift to the consultant contract, that could then lead to the nurses reopening their concerns about their pay. bed blocking, or delayed discharge, is a perennial problem and one which is inextricably linked to a political puzzle, one which everyone seems to recognise but few seem keen to solve. social care, a system which works outside the nhs, but is key to its smooth operation. in england, there are currently

152,000 vacancies in the sector — almost 10% of roles. experts argue the fact social care wasn't included in the government's workforce plan could hinder reform. the area that we talk about the most is, of course, home care. adult social care impacts on elderly, frail, working age adults with problems at home. and frankly, we just don't have enough staff. we have a very demoralised workforce and we have the pressure of adult social care as part of councils, that we know are under significant pressure, with more councils than ever declaring bankruptcy. and how do you change that? you've got to have a mind shift. we have to have a mind shift as a society about what we think social care is and how we value it. the answer to these myriad challenges is far more than just money. the solution spans a whole host of policy areas, from education to immigration and local government. yes, it would be great to improve

productivity, introduce new technology, but it's also about the basics of keeping staff happy and motivated to stay. the government have told us investment in the nhs and the number of doctors and nurses are both at a record high. but there are difficult decisions ahead and many may not be politically palatable. friday night, we thought we'd glam up the studio in honour of the two decade—old hit murder on the dancefloor being back in the charts. and it's all because of the tense thriller saltburn, which, if you've watched it, you'll know follows an apparently working—class oxford university student who becomes infatuated with upper—class student felix. and here he is now. we were just talking about you. don't be silly. you just make up the most awful things. of course we weren't. hello, oliver, darling. oh, what beautiful eyes.

oh, how wonderful! yeah, i told you he wasn't a minger. oh, but darling, you're kind about everyone. l you can't be trusted. # if you think you're getting away. # i will prove you wrong. # i'll take you all the way. # boy, just come along. # hear me when i say, hey. # it's murder on the dance floor. # but you'd better not kill the groove. # hey, hey. # it's murder on the dance floor...# its success two decades after it was in the chance delighted everyone including the woman who sings it. good evening, sophie ellis—bextor, thank you forjoining us on newsnight. we really appreciate it. that's ok, how are you? i’m newsnight. we really appreciate it. that's ok, how are you?— that's ok, how are you? i'm very well, that's ok, how are you? i'm very well. how— that's ok, how are you? i'm very well. how are _ that's ok, how are you? i'm very well, how are you? _ that's ok, how are you? i'm very well, how are you? how- that's ok, how are you? i'm very well, how are you? how do - that's ok, how are you? i'm very well, how are you? how do you l that's ok, how are you? i'm very i well, how are you? how do you feel about the revival of one of your greatest hits?—

about the revival of one of your greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical. _ greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical. it's — greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical, it's difficult _ greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical, it's difficult to - greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical, it's difficult to get - greatest hits? erm i think it's kind of magical, it's difficult to get my| of magical, it's difficult to get my head around because normally when you have a song in the chance, you are doing a lot of promos and you are doing a lot of promos and you are caught up in that but i've been having christmas with my family and my son has been doing this extraordinary thing. i think it's pretty glorious. it's lots of fun and i'm grateful to everyone who is supporting it. it is pretty wild. it is so good to hear because stuff like this doesn't happen very often. you knew that it was going to be in saltburn, you had to give your permission for it to be used. did you know it was going to be used in a scene involving the lead character dancing around naked and joyful? i did and that was a big part of the reason i said yes! i thought, i have to say that! what's happening with murder on the dance floor on saltburn is one thing i always loved about my dayjob, you have to be

open to the unexpected and you can't plan what's going to happen next. so yes, this is part of the adventure and a reason i love what i do. i confess that i haven't yet watched saltburn. i'm watching it this weekend. my friends have said it is sexually wild and have advised me not to watch it with my teenage boys. i understand you watched it with your 19—year—old son and your mother. who was the most uncomfortable?— mother. who was the most uncomfortable? ~ . ., , uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son- — uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son. he _ uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son. he said _ uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son. he said it - uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son. he said it was - uncomfortable? hmm! actually it wasn't my son. he said it was in i uncomfortable? hmm! actually it l wasn't my son. he said it was in his top ten things of all time, he adored it. ithink top ten things of all time, he adored it. i think i was projecting. he was sat between me and his grandma. there were some quite challenging scenes as a family! i had my head in my hands a couple of times. he seemed to do all right. we liked it. i times. he seemed to do all right. we

liked it. ., ., , ., liked it. i read an interview you did recently — liked it. i read an interview you did recently where _ liked it. i read an interview you did recently where you - liked it. i read an interview you did recently where you said - liked it. i read an interview you - did recently where you said you had slowly lost what the reporter described as an aloof image, saying it had taken you years to relax and show your real self. is that how it has felt to you? it’s show your real self. is that how it has felt to you?— has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't — has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't say _ has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't say that _ has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't say that the _ has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't say that the image - has felt to you? it's not that... i wouldn't say that the image was has felt to you? it's not that... i - wouldn't say that the image was me, i think it's more that when i started doing what i do, i think i kind of protected myself a bit, really. the lovely thing about having a long career and about getting older, i think, having a long career and about getting older, ithink, is having a long career and about getting older, i think, is that i've been able to feel less self—conscious about being myself. i mean, i neverwould self—conscious about being myself. i mean, i never would have thought that at the age of 44, which i am now, that i'd feel comfortable dancing onstage around leotards. when i started onstage i was standing dead still, i was very shy. i'm sure my children would have preferred the older version of my performances but this is what

they're stuck way. it's one of