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tv   Talking Business  BBC News  January 7, 2024 5:30am-6:01am GMT

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consecutive term. the election has seen a wave of violence across the country, with m polling stations being set on fire before voting began. the us secretary of state antony blinken is holding more talks in a bid to end the conflict in gaza — he's meeting the leaders ofjordan and qatar today. fighting continues in gaza, where the israeli military says it's broken hamas�*s command structure in the north of the territory. the head of the us transport safety board says no passengers were seated next to where part of a plane fell off mid—flight. meanwhile, the american airline regulator has ordered the grounding of 171 boeing 737 max 9 jets after the incident, while inspections take place. now on bbc news, talking business. hello, everybody.
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a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron hazelhurst. let's go take a look at what's on the show. the big china challenge. a year since the covid—19lockdowns. as the biggest economy back to full health. ongoing trade tensions with the us are some of the problems government is trying to tackle. this leading china economist will explain how the government needs to balance ambitions of the changing demand of a radically different younger generation if it wants the country to thrive. plus this former head of the international monetary fund china division tells me how beijing struggles are affecting all of us around the world. and keeping the internet free and fair. the big boss of web browser firefox tells me how her foundation is trying to compete with the deep pocketed rivals like google and apple and still have an influence.
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wherever you arejoining me from around the world warm welcome. china, �*s second biggest economy a trouser united states and is more than four times the size of the next on the list pan. what happens there matters. a year since the government abandoned coronavirus lockdowns economist are struggling and including vast debts of the property market in local government, soaring youth unemployment, an ageing workforce and trade tension with the united states. lost in decades and some say that was deliberate but it will be achieved according to the imf
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wow finish the assessment in november while warning big challenges still lie ahead. reaching 5.4% in 2023 and reflecting a strong post reopening and rebound in domestic demand particularly consumption. growth will slow as we expect the weakness of the property sector to continue. external demand to remain subdued. external demand to remain subdued-— external demand to remain subdued. , ., . , subdued. the mismatch between su - -l subdued. the mismatch between su -l and subdued. the mismatch between supply and demand _ subdued. the mismatch between supply and demand for— subdued. the mismatch between supply and demand for new - supply and demand for new properties is casting a shadow over the entire chinese economy. as our correspondent found out on a trip. this woman brought a flat here but it's largely empty and its value has collapsed. i am worried, but what can i do. there are shells of tower blocks that appear abandoned.
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supply and demand is not limited to this area or this city, you can find clusters of towers of them unoccupied or unfinished apartments and work has stopped altogether and consider the same things happening in province province across the country. one estimate is that is 26 million unsold homes. that is enough to house the entire population of italy and also training confidence. also not enough jobs for young people. part of the problem is less jobs are being created by foreign companies, foreign investors done by a third compared to the time earlier and global economic challenge including inflation and thus us china tensions.
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the buck stops with the government of the president. our goal is not to havejust government of the president. our goal is not to have just a few wealthy people but to realise common prosperity for all. employment, education, medical services, elderly care, housing, the environment and the like. these are real issues important to people's daily lives, they are being steadily integrated into our plans for national development. what does chinese development look like in the years ahead and how difficult will it be to solve tensions between socialism and capitalism. i've been speaking to an china economist and they have been addressing the very questions in her new book, the new china playbook. a real pleasure having you on the show. the challenges for president xi jinping, what is the most pressing point?
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the chinese economy is undergoing a serious challenge, high youth unemployment, mountainous debt overhang and low income growth the people's saving and it's really peaked, these are serious challenges but i want to ask a question, is the cyclical or structural, is this a permanent decline with more state control, i do not think so but the fact is the chinese economy did not see this kind of huge type of stimulus package that the us had during the pandemic and there is a lack of confidence, post pandemic recovery is slow and it's
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a painful adjustment and the real estate. the real estate tracking everything down. i think most of it is cyclical and you cannot write off the second largest economy as it won't overtake the us at some point, i think that is the wrong assumption. you argue china is entering this new era shaped by a radically different younger generation. how will that shift change the chinese economy? they have not gone to the vicissitudes the nations come through, they have it much easier and want to spend and be more relaxed and spend much more on things like leisure, travel, apparel, entertainment much more than the previous generations despite having lower income and that is
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a new way of life for the new generation. we saw the chinese youth unemployment pass the 21% mark but beijing is cracking down on youth focus industries like private tuition, technology and gaming. has that helped or hindered? there is a skill and education mismatch and graduates, where do they go, university diploma and what kind ofjobs are there. there's 25 million manufacturing jobs to be filled but these families who paid enormous sums for the education and the crackdown of the sector, they do not
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want their kids to be in some factories but that mass is really important by the government is raising the status of these jobs with less discrimination and that is happening really rapidly. you wonder if the chinese government policies are forward—looking enough to embrace this whole new generation? it has continuous with policies in the world and the ambition is to make china higher in the value chain and train engineers and technical workers and that is the direction and tutorial programs, this is gone really out of hand because of this one child policy, all of them want to make their kids dragons and phoenixes and they would empty their bank accounts to do that and indeed,
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they exploited that demand, the private sector is a major driving force of the economy and providing the lion's share of thejobs which means social stability and innovations in the government knows that, they actively try to support the private sector. you might be sceptical but there's been a slew of policies coming forth changing attitude of the private sector. one big problem is debt, especially in property market, two very large property developers, evergrande debts of around $200 billion, country garden debts of around 100 $90 billion in something like 26 million homes, does this mean china can no longer rely on the property market for economic growth? the prepandemic trend, most of them recovered almost back to prepandemic levels but real estate is what is dragging
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chinese growth down. the government is not going back to that in the real estate in the high housing prices of people not want to have children because they cannot afford the living space and it is causing social concern and developers of have borrowed and bought soccer clubs have behaved irresponsibly. we have to remember there's hundreds of millions of people that are going to move from these areas but it will be a long painful adjustment because these people do not have the income to be up to purchase these apartments and many apartments to be turned into affordable housing which is consistent with china's common prosperity and supporting middle—income groups can be a good thing too. one problem is the selling
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of land, the local government selling the land that used to be a cash cow and not straight up and some of these governments simply will not have the funding to provide the services that they need to provide — education, health. it's a major issue and if there is anything that was going to be the biggest challenge to the economy going forward because of some responsibility for the economy in 50% of revenue came from land sales and that is gone, they have to find alternative sources of revenue that rely on entrepreneurs and companies to do well and collect taxes. talking about manufacturing being a driving force of economic growth, i think it accounts for 20% of the economy but i'm wondering, have we seen the end of china being the factory floor and other industries coming into play?
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making real stuff, technical stuff is really important and china wants to be a bigger and smarter germany using ai data and communications to do added manufacturing. it is very much still the goal but to climb up the value chain, low end manufacturing has moved to neighbouring countries and that is where the crackdowns on real estate on the system doesn't see it as a real economy. let me in on this. does beijing, president xi jinping, do they care about the role of the china plays on the global economy, especially if that conflicts with the domestic agenda
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the us is the world's largest economy but at no point did he make the decisions the spread of the impact on global economy based on external environment but rather solely on domestic economic conditions in china's challenges today are overwhelmingly internal and the focus is internal but it wants to play a bigger role in the global economy and there's no contradiction saying they want to be critical and dependent on certain technological components at the same time, embracing globalisation in terms of investment and trade. good luck with the book will check in with you soon. china has to forge a new economic path but whatever choices it makes there will be considerable consequences of the rest of the world, something i have been discussing that with
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the professor of global trade of the international funds. a real pleasure having you on the show and it does seem pretty clear that china's economy isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. how big of a problem is that the rest of the world? the second largest economy in the world and since the global financial crisis of 2008, china has been the main driver of growth, adding even more to the global demand than even the united states, so when the second largest economy slows down, the demand for commodities is weak and people are holding back on consuming and this means overall global demand is much weaker than it would otherwise be. the economic relationship between china and the united states has been defined by these tariffs and other trade restrictions.
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they were started by president trump and continued by president biden. how have they hobbled china's growth or has china learnt to live with them? the reality that china faces the relationship between the chinese and the us is going to remain rocky for a while but it's china attempt to move into what is seen as the industries of the future, clean energy, green technologies which happens to be the areas with the us is trying to establish its dominance, that become the central point its dominance, that become the central point of conflict. where businesses and private confidence are weak, the ongoing tensions between the us and china, bring anything to help the consumers and business confidence.
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the government is actively encouraging foreign companies to invest more in manufacturing. but i'm kind of wondering what happens if that doesn't work?— doesn't work? what china has been trying — doesn't work? what china has been trying to _ doesn't work? what china has been trying to do _ doesn't work? what china has been trying to do is _ doesn't work? what china has been trying to do is promote i been trying to do is promote innovation domestically. the difficulty is the private sector feels it does not have the government's support and it has been holding back on investment. so china still relies on foreign technology. so now you have geopolitical tensions and the chinese economic slowdown that are deterring foreign investors from coming into china, they're also not bringing technological expertsive with them. this is going to make it very difficult for china to accomplish many of its economic objectives. haw its economic ob'ectives. how important _ its economic ob'ectives. how important is _ its economic objectives. how important is the _ its economic objectives. how important is the revival - its economic objectives. how important is the revival of. important is the revival of china's private sector to reboot china's economy? i’m reboot china's economy? i'm 'ust reboot china's economy? i'm just back _ reboot china's economy? i'm just back from _ reboot china's economy? i“n just back from some travels in china and there seems to be a very significant disconnect between what the government is saying, that it continues to
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support the private sector, and what private entrepreneurs seem to feel. they feel the government is much more hostile towards them. and wants to make sure that no private enterprise grows too big for its britches. the reality is that beijing needs the private sector, small and medium enterprises and both the manufacturing and service sectors have been very important for generating employment growth. unless the chinese government can fix this problem of declining private sector confidence, especially private business confidence, it's going to be a tough slog for the economy. xi jinping's bit for the economy. xi jinping's big economic _ for the economy. xi jinping's big economic vision - for the economy. xi jinping's big economic vision for - for the economy. xi jinping's big economic vision for the l big economic vision for the world has been that $1 trillion belt and road initiative. it's china investing all over the world in an attempt to fuel economic growth. ranging from ports in greece to railways in zambia. is that spending by
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china likely to slow now that china likely to slow now that china is struggling so much economically at home? for a while when _ economically at home? for a while when china _ economically at home? for a while when china was - economically at home? for a while when china was doing l economically at home? for a . while when china was doing well economically, it seemed to make sense for the government to use the belt and road initiative and other initiatives to try to use its financial clout to also increase its geopolitical power around the world. so, at a time when china's receiving pushback from the countries it gave money to, and when it is not generating good returns on those investments, now that's happening at a time when the chinese economy itself is weak, i think we're seeing a reconsideration from beijing about the wisdom of undertaking such investments at such scale around the world. now for beijing, it has become very difficult to accept losses on its lending because on the one hand, there's significant economic costs, of course, to writing off those loans, but there's also the symbolic element that beijing doesn't want to be seen as having made
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unwise investments. it does not look very good for the central government in beijing that it encouraged many of these investments and has to take losses at a time when chinese citizens are having to tighten their belts because the economy is not doing so well. [30 their belts because the economy is not doing so well.— is not doing so well. do you think, is not doing so well. do you think. given _ is not doing so well. do you think, given the _ is not doing so well. do you think, given the ongoing . is not doing so well. do you. think, given the ongoing cost of living crisis for many parts of living crisis for many parts of the world, and many western consumers are more reluctant to put their hands in their pocket, i'm kind of wondering, do you think the era of global growth fuelled by buying cheap stuff from china, do you think that's now over?— that's now over? no, that translates _ that's now over? no, that translates into _ that's now over? no, that translates into a - that's now over? no, that translates into a broader. translates into a broader question about whether we've seen the end of globalisation. at one level, certainly there's geopolitical and other reasons why many manufacturers are turning away from china as a key component of their supply chains. but the reality is the consumers around the world are still going to try to find the cheapest products they can find
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and manufacturers will try to find the cheapest ways of producing whatever it is that consumers want. but certainly at a time when wages are not rising very fast, prices are rising very fast, prices are rising very fast, consumers around the world are certainly going to be a little more reluctant to dip into their pockets to spend. tbs, reluctant to dip into their pockets to spend.- pockets to spend. a real pleasure _ pockets to spend. a real pleasure having - pockets to spend. a real pleasure having you - pockets to spend. a real pleasure having you on i pockets to spend. a real. pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time. it's been my pleasure. thank you. it's been my pleasure. thank ou. ., it's been my pleasure. thank ou. ., " ., it's been my pleasure. thank ou. ., ~ ., , ., ., , you. you know competing against the likes of— you. you know competing against the likes of tech _ you. you know competing against the likes of tech giants _ you. you know competing against the likes of tech giants such - the likes of tech giants such as google and apple a is no easy feat. but how much harder is it when you're a not—for—profit foundation that wants to make sure that internet plays a more positive role in the world? well, that's exactly the challenge that the chair of the mozilla foundation has to face every day. its main product is the firefox web
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browser that doesn't come pre—installed. one of mozilla's biggest goals is to make the internet a global resource, open and accessible to all. mitchell, how can you do that for china when the internet is so heavily censored there? it’s so heavily censored there? it's a real so heavily censored there? it�*s a real challenge. some of the censorship we see at the human experience level, and others are in the internet and technology — i'm actually going to the un next week to discuss these very topics. and the consumer experience side, you know, their vision of how online works is very clear. and it is in service of stability of the society and the state. as many economies, including china, look increasingly to service industries for economic growth, mitchell, how important is a free and fair internet to that? and what do you think that? and what do you think that contributes to economic growth? that contributes to economic trowth? ., �* , that contributes to economic trowth? ., �*,, . that contributes to economic trowth? . .,
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growth? that's such an important _ growth? that's such an important question. i growth? that's such an| important question. the growth? that's such an - important question. the free and open internet is what allows competition and what allows competition and what allows new things to develop. so, you need a free and open internet to reach consumers on a level playing field, to offer the business you want, and to be able to compete without having to start having products all up and down the stack the way the giants already do. let's talk about your competition. and of course, money. how do you, how do you take on the likes of apple, which is sitting on a cash pile of some $162 billion, google has got $118 billion in hand. that's a hard battle, isn't it? it's a very hard battle. competing with the giants in any technology is tough. as we live that difficulty every day. so, i think the idea of a head—on challenge to one of the giants in exactly the design space they're working in is a
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long time coming. now, open source has done that on numerous occasions. but it does take time. and it does take some changes in the environment. at mozilla we always believe technology or internet should not be immune from regulation. that's how citizens and societies exercise their vision of life into the business world. i think one reason why mozilla's nonprofit status is so important is we make decisions that an investor may choose not to make, to kind of push the internet closer towards the balance that society wants.— society wants. since you launched _ society wants. since you launched firefox - society wants. since you launched firefox back i society wants. since you launched firefox back in | society wants. since you - launched firefox back in 2004, you have seen your share of the internet browser market plummet from a peak of 30% to now 3%. does it become a point at which it's not worth the cost of trying to compete with the big guns? trying to compete with the big tuns? ~ trying to compete with the big i uns? . . ., , trying to compete with the big
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tuns? ~ _, , ., guns? we competed on the browser for _ guns? we competed on the browser for a _ guns? we competed on the browser for a few _ guns? we competed on the browser for a few different | browser for a few different reasons. it may seem like we love the browser because we always built it, that's probably true. but underneath that, the browser is an odd piece of software. the only protection you get is what the system gives you. we see firefox as representing you. everything from protecting you to allowing you to change simple things to much deeper things that consumers don't experience directly. we compete because that question of who represents the individual in a highly centralised technological society is critical. ., ., ., ., �*, critical. your foundation's bi t t est critical. your foundation's biggest source _ critical. your foundation's biggest source of - critical. your foundation's biggest source of cash . critical. your foundation's biggest source of cash is | critical. your foundation's - biggest source of cash is that half a billion dollars a year that google pays to be the default search engine on firefox. at the moment, google's on trial in the us where the usjustice department
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accuses it of unfairly shutting out rivals from being the highly profitable default search engine. how concerned are you about the foundation's future, given that trial could lead to the loss of that money from google?— from google? there's many reasons to _ from google? there's many reasons to work _ from google? there's many reasons to work on - from google? there's many reasons to work on revenue j reasons to work on revenue diversification. we've been doing that for some time. there's the one you mention, like something catastrophic could happen. there's also long—term change in consumer habits, or market, or customers or business relationships. if there's some catastrophic change whether it's the one you raise or something else in the future, then we'll address it. but the long—term piece of how is it that the internet�*s impact on society is a more positive benefit for society thanit positive benefit for society than it is today, you know, we'll continue with that. even if the form of work changes. mitchell baker, the big boss of mozilla, thanks for coming in on the show. that's it for this
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week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. keep up—to—date on the global economy on the bbc news website. you can follow me on x. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye—bye. hello there. flooding still, of course, a concern for many, although the rain has now largely eased and the number of flood warnings is continuing to steadily drop. but there are still plenty of them in place. so do take a look at the details on those on the bbc weather website. of course, it's a lot drier now than it has been recently. we're set to keep that dry weather as we head through the next few days. it's certainly feeling colder. temperatures closer to the seasonal average, frost and fog forming through the overnight periods. also, some icy stretches with the ground so damp too. and the high pressure is set to stick around as we head into next week. it's just blocking all of these atlantic systems pushing in from the west. so we should stay dry and settled with some showers
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perhaps towards the east. and we're starting off sunday morning with quite a widespread frost, although temperatures a little higher, just above freezing where we keep the layers of cloud, fog lingering on for much of the morning yet again. it's going to be very slow to lift and close some very dense patches out there. the sunshine very weak at this time of year, not doing too much to burn it back. but there will be a lot of sunshine around across scotland, northern england and northern ireland. sunny spells for england and wales, but always cloudier towards these north sea facing coasts with quite a noticeable northeasterly wind blowing a few showers onshore at times, but wintry over the northern york moors and perhaps over the downs of kent. but these will be the days highs — 2 to 6 degrees celsius, although in the northeasterly wind, it's going to feel a good few degrees colder than that. and it's more of the same as we head into monday. perhaps the breeze picking up a little across east anglia and the southeast of england as we head through the day. so feeling colder once again, but some sunny spells around again. any fog could linger on for much of the morning, even into the afternoon.
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temperatures between 3 and 5 degrees celsius. but once again, i think some places could possibly feel subzero in exposure to that brisk northeasterly wind. it will be windier through the channel as well. and then into tuesday, we'll see more of a wind developing towards the south of england. and this will allow the cloud to break up a little more. so more in the way of sunshine probably. but again, highs of only 3 to 6 degrees celsius, some fog and some low cloud further north. and here's the outlook for our capital cities as we head through the rest of the week. temperatures will rise a little as we head into thursday and friday. it's still looking mostly dry. bye— bye.
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good morning. welcome to sunday breakfast with ben thompson and rachel burden. our headlines today: investigations into how part of a plane blew out mid—flight as the uk civil aviation authority demands all owners of the boeing aircraft carry out inspections before flying in british airspace. 192 flood warnings remain in england and wales as families start the clear—up after the devastating effects of storm henk. new research suggests that some parents believe the covid pandemic has shown that it is not essential for children to attend school every day. maidstone provide some magic in the fa cup. the non—league side stun stevenage to reach the fourth round for the first time in their history. good morning. a cold start to the day, some frost out there this morning. also some dense fog patches. many of us, it will be dry
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and there will be some sunny

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