we will discuss whether, his appeal in washington today, we will discuss whether his appeal in washington today, will work and how the courts decision might effect the 2024 election. and the french president has just appointed a new prime minister as he seeks to reboot his second term. the new man is gabriel attal — the youngest man ever to hold that post. we will get the thoughts tonight of lord peter ricketts, formerly the british ambassador in paris, after he had served as david cameron's national security advisor. joining us a little later tonight victoria coates, who herself was a deputy national security adviser to the former president donald trump. she will be with us later in the programme. i want to start with the breaking news i brought you last hour in ecuador, the life of men who have stormed into a live tv programme. the men, wearing balaclava's, were

in the tv station in the port city guayaquil. they've got grenades with them as well, in the past minutes them as well, in the past minutes the president said that ecuador is now in a state of emergency, but it is now in a state of armed conflict. let's speak to naomi wells who is in sao paulo. saying in the last hour, we've got a new person who's threatening to take on the drug cartels and they are pushing back forcibly. cartels and they are pushing back forcibl . . v cartels and they are pushing back forcibl . . �*, ., forcibly. that's right, and the scenes tonight _ forcibly. that's right, and the scenes tonight demonstrate l forcibly. that's right, and the - scenes tonight demonstrate that, certainly. it is incredibly distressing footage, footage there of staff as they were broadcasting live on air at the television station in guayaquil, with guns being held to some of the staff as

they plead please, please, please as they plead please, please, please as they beg for their lives and that footage. we see balaclava clad men with grenades and explosives, obviously holding armed weapons as well. as you mentioned there, this comes after the president announced a state of emergency on monday, and this was partly in response to the apparent escape of a powerful gang leaderfrom prison before he was due to be transferred to a more high security prison. now, after that state of emergency was announced, there was a wave of attacks, there been attacks including explosions, also this sort of abduction of various police officers as well. daniel nebo has tonight said said there is a internal armed conflict as well, and the military with orders to try and tackle the violence we are seeing breaking out

in ecuador. guayaquil in particular has seen a rise in violence and attacks in recent months and years, but the story tonight is stilljust developing and we are waiting for more details about what is going on at that television station in particular, and how many staff may still be stuck inside. flan particular, and how many staff may still be stuck inside.— still be stuck inside. can we talk about the president, _ still be stuck inside. can we talk about the president, naboa? . still be stuck inside. can we talk| about the president, naboa? his still be stuck inside. can we talk - about the president, naboa? his son becomes the resident, 35 years of age, why do we think the country chose him?— chose him? well, certainly these recent elections _ chose him? well, certainly these recent elections were _ chose him? well, certainly these recent elections were marred - chose him? well, certainly these recent elections were marred by | recent elections were marred by violence in particular during the campaign, there was even the assassination of one of the candidates in that election campaign as well, and he has vowed as part of his election, to tackle violence. he has said he won't stop until he brings peace to people in ecuador.

now, this is an incredible test for him this evening, because of that we are seeing as i said, rising incidence of violence since he announced that state of emergency. people who voted for him what are hoping he can bring that change, he is certainly seem to be doing something this evening, issuing further orders for the military to interfere in and the military to be able to, for example, reinstate themselves in prisons and other spaces where violence is breaking out. but this is certainly a huge test of his leadership so soon after being elected. test of his leadership so soon after being elected-— being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a 'ob being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a job on _ being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a job on his — being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a job on his hands. _ being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a job on his hands. thank- being elected. yeah, daniel naboa has a job on his hands. thank you | has a job on his hands. thank you for that. the us secretary of state, antony blinken has been in tel aviv today for some difficult meetings as washington tries to encourage the israeli government to move the war in gaza to a new phase. there is speculation building that us officials are becoming frustrated with prime minister netanyahu, although publically they would still support the broader war aims. some officials in washington now

question whether mr netenyahu as much in charge as he would have us believe. only 15% of israelis say they want him to remain in office after the events of october seventh, and there are nearly daily protests outside the knesset calling for new elections. but he's facing equal pressure from his right flank, from the far—right ministers in his coalition, bezalel smotrich and itamar ben—gvir, who are more resistant to us pressure. with us tonight nahal toosi, she is politico's seniorforeign affairs correspondent. she's just written an article on prime minister netenyahu and his relationship with washington. welcome to the programme. just how strange do you think this relationship is now? i strange do you think this relationship is now? i think it's . uite relationship is now? i think it's quite strange. _ relationship is now? i think it's quite strange, much _ relationship is now? i think it's quite strange, much more - relationship is now? i think it's| quite strange, much more than relationship is now? i think it's - quite strange, much more than the us or the israeli law like to admit in public. officials keep asking prime minister netanyahu and his partners for a number of minister netanyahu and his partners fora number of similar minister netanyahu and his partners for a number of similar things.

minister netanyahu and his partners fora number of similarthings. more humanitarian aid, being more careful when targeting palestinians, think about the day after scenario when it comes to gaza. try to strengthen the palestinian authority, these types of things, but because of all these pressures netanyahu is under, including his desire to avoid prison on corruption charges, he doesn't seem to be able to pull through and come through on a lot of the things of the us wants, so you kind of the cds things over and over again and the tensions are growing. hang cds things over and over again and the tensions are growing. how much are these two _ the tensions are growing. how much are these two key _ the tensions are growing. how much are these two key ministers - the tensions are growing. how much are these two key ministers setting l are these two key ministers setting the agenda right now, and how much influence over net mr netanyahu do they have? influence over net mr netanyahu do the have? , ., ., they have? they are not in the war cabinet, which _ they have? they are not in the war cabinet, which means— they have? they are not in the war cabinet, which means when - they have? they are not in the war cabinet, which means when it - they have? they are not in the war. cabinet, which means when it comes to like the direct military decisions, they are in theory not having much of a say. but there are a lot of decisions related to the work where they are weighing in, and because netanyahu is worried about losing them them as part of his coalition he is basically listening to them or unwilling to make certain decisions because if they walk away from his coalition, he could fall out of power as prime minister and

then he would be more likely to have to face the trial and all sorts of legal problems. it's a complicated thing. but, no, i mean when it comes to for instance sell it sending the money to palestinian authority, that would shored up, revitalise it, allowing it to have a good essay or governing role in postwar gaza, they know this oppose this, they are talking about finding ways to get palestinians to migrate out of gaza completely. voluntary, they say, but some people say it's going to be enforceable. so they have very, very far right ideas that are in many ways not practical, but because netanyahu can't afford to lose this part of his career coalition, he can't afford to ignore them. secretary blinken pushed hard back on that during his press conference yesterday. peter, iwant on that during his press conference yesterday. peter, i want to talk about david cameron and the evidence he gave to the foreign affairs select committee today, he was asked

specifically whether he had received legal advice from government lawyers that israel was in breach of humanitarian law, the short answer he said to that is no, but if you're asking me am i worried that israel has taken action that might be a breach of international law, then yes, of course i am. what does that tell you, peter, about the conversations ongoing within government departments here and in washington? i government departments here and in washinuton? ~ government departments here and in washington?— washington? i think david cameron reall is washington? i think david cameron really is very _ washington? i think david cameron really is very concerned _ washington? i think david cameron really is very concerned about - washington? i think david cameron really is very concerned about the l really is very concerned about the hi-h really is very concerned about the high levels of civilian casualties, hi-h high levels of civilian casualties, high levels of civilian casualties, high levels of civilian casualties, high levels of children. house of lords _ high levels of children. house of lords european affairs committee said exactly that, he hasn't made any secret— said exactly that, he hasn't made any secret of that, like antony blinken he is pushing hard for their to be _ blinken he is pushing hard for their to be a _ blinken he is pushing hard for their to be a more targeted, less distraction, less civilian casualties, more humanitarian aid getting _ casualties, more humanitarian aid getting in. — casualties, more humanitarian aid getting in. i— casualties, more humanitarian aid getting in, ithink casualties, more humanitarian aid getting in, i think david cameron was one — getting in, i think david cameron was one of— getting in, i think david cameron was one of those that pushed hard for the _ was one of those that pushed hard for the un — was one of those that pushed hard for the un security council resolutionjust for the un security council resolution just before for the un security council resolutionjust before christmas. you're _ resolutionjust before christmas. you're absolutely right and what you are saying. — you're absolutely right and what you are saying, in a way netanyahu has a

very awkward national, as a personal interest, _ very awkward national, as a personal interest, in— very awkward national, as a personal interest, in staying in power, and staying _ interest, in staying in power, and staying out— interest, in staying in power, and staying out ofjail. he's confusing the national interests of israel with his — the national interests of israel with his personal interest there. and now— with his personal interest there. and now by the fourth visit of antony— and now by the fourth visit of antony blinken to israel, he's been saying _ antony blinken to israel, he's been saying the — antony blinken to israel, he's been saying the same thing he's been saying _ saying the same thing he's been saying on— saying the same thing he's been saying on the other visits. he is having — saying on the other visits. he is having very— saying on the other visits. he is having very little impact, i think absolutely because of the influence of the _ absolutely because of the influence of the far— absolutely because of the influence of the far right leaders on netanyahu who needs their support to stay in _ netanyahu who needs their support to stay in power. yeah, interesting the saudi _ stay in power. yeah, interesting the saudi ambassador to the uk to the bbc, _ saudi ambassador to the uk to the bbc, the _ saudi ambassador to the uk to the bbc, the problem in israel there is an extreme — bbc, the problem in israel there is an extreme absolutist perspectives but that _ an extreme absolutist perspectives but that doesn't work to achieve compromise and you are not going to end the _ compromise and you are not going to end the conflict. this compromise and you are not going to end the conflict.— end the conflict. this might be the concern and _ end the conflict. this might be the concern and how— end the conflict. this might be the concern and how in _ end the conflict. this might be the concern and how in the _ end the conflict. this might be the concern and how in the white - end the conflict. this might be the i concern and how in the white house, they have a partner for b's concern and how in the white house, they have a partner for bs in tel aviv, to the arab states have someone they can work with? tie. someone they can work with? no, that's a very. _

someone they can work with? no, that's a very. very _ someone they can work with? iifr, that's a very, very good question. it depends on who is in charge in israel. there's definitely a sense among us officials that things might get better. there's a chance, if and when netanyahu falls from power, that's partly why us officials are staying in touch with the other israeli figures such as... there's a long—term belief that netanyahu won't last forever and maybe if one of these others get into power they're going to be a bit more likely to compromise, but he did want to stress at the end of the day that israeli leaders are very much united on the idea that they have to destroy hamas. which is also a major obstacle to peace and does not want to compromise. that is the type of thing that is not going to change, there is going to continue to be a very hard line taken against palestinian militants no matter who is in charge. just palestinian militants no matter who is in charge-— is in charge. just in terms though of how they _ is in charge. just in terms though of how they look _ is in charge. just in terms though of how they look at _ is in charge. just in terms though of how they look at this - of how they look at this strategically within the white house, are they, in terms of the day after or the day after that, are they planning for a leadership change in israel with my car they

already preparing for the possibility?— already preparing for the ossibili ? ., ~ ., ., �*, already preparing for the ossibili ? ., ~ ., ., possibility? you know, that's not something _ possibility? you know, that's not something they _ possibility? you know, that's not something they like _ possibility? you know, that's not something they like to _ possibility? you know, that's not something they like to talk- possibility? you know, that's not| something they like to talk about openly, but given the fact that they are certainly trying to keep in touch with all sorts of israeli figures, except for the far right, they are not dealing them. that to me as a sign they are definitely thinking in terms of the day after, notjust thinking in terms of the day after, not just the day after the war, thinking in terms of the day after, notjust the day after the war, but the day after netanyahu.- notjust the day after the war, but the day after netanyahu. really good to talk to you. _ the day after netanyahu. really good to talk to you, really _ the day after netanyahu. really good to talk to you, really interesting - to talk to you, really interesting article you will wrote this morning, thank you very much for coming on the programme. he then had to be readmitted for severe pain on new year's day, but around all that and of course we reported on the programme last night, there's been huge comfort for a seat but a defence secretary had not informed the white house that he would be out of action. his duties were passed to his deputy and

generally the second while she was in puerto rico, without her knowledge at that time as to why she was taking over. he has since resumed duties and is working, let's speak to our north america correspondent know mia iqbal, now we know, no mia, —— nomia as far back as 22nd of december, what are people saying about it tonight?— saying about it tonight? president biden has confirmed _ saying about it tonight? president biden has confirmed he _ saying about it tonight? president biden has confirmed he found - saying about it tonight? president biden has confirmed he found out| biden has confirmed he found out today, so that's two weeks where he did not know the condition of his defence secretary. and lloyd offers an, he is a no drama pentagon chief. you normally don't hear much about him, when you think about defence secretaries of the past in the us, he is someone who avoids the spotlight. now he's facing this huge scrutiny, laid out the timeline there, there's so many things we

don't know, even though we've got this detail know about his health and the prognosis is good, which is good news of course, there is still so many questions about hasn't been answered. how is it that president biden didn't know for two weeks about his secretary? i think the general feeling is that this wasn't anything sinister, there's no cover up here, lloyd austin is a a—star general, he's a private look man, stiff upper lip, and hejust may be didn't want to bother people. but then there is an argument that when you are that high up in the chain of command, he's in the presidential line of succession, he is the nuclear can i come are for that level of privacy? you should you not be transparent about your condition? so that's the controversy around it, of course christian for the republicans this is a huge problem, there's an argument said there will probably be

many americans who are thinking this is a man who is in charge of defence secretary, so many heated conflicts happening right now, is there an implication that he's not essential to decision—making when it comes to national security as he should be? there's just so many questions with not a lot of answers. there'sjust so many questions with not a lot of answers.— there'sjust so many questions with not a lot of answers. thank you very much for that. _ not a lot of answers. thank you very much for that, it _ not a lot of answers. thank you very much for that, it just _ not a lot of answers. thank you very much for that, itjust so _ not a lot of answers. thank you very much for that, itjust so happens - much for that, itjust so happens that we have two national advisers with us. the fact that the president didn't know until today that he was suffering from prostate cancer, what you make of that?— suffering from prostate cancer, what you make of that? christian, good to see ou you make of that? christian, good to see you too. — you make of that? christian, good to see you too. and _ you make of that? christian, good to see you too, and i _ you make of that? christian, good to see you too, and i apologise - you make of that? christian, good to see you too, and i apologise for- see you too, and i apologise for my delay. this is deeply troubling, i concur that all americans are

gratefulfor concur that all americans are grateful for general austin's service and his service as secretary of defence and pleased to hear that his prognosis is good, but i worked for secretary rumsfeld for a number of years so i know a lot about the protocol and the authorities of the secretary of defence, and there are certain things that this individual is obligated to do, certain responsibilities that only he or she can perform. so the fact that the president didn't know the secretary of defence had cancerfor president didn't know the secretary of defence had cancer for however long that has been is extraordinary, because you would think that is something you might want to share it with your boss when you're in that kind of position. that i don't think he is something that you necessarily have to share with the american people but your boss needs to know in the event that something like this happens and then you have to be prepared in the event that something like this that predictably could happen that the proper processes are in place and that exists. there's already a model for that. so this is

just befuddling that nothing normal happened over the course of the last week to make sure our defences were be adequately manned. thea;r week to make sure our defences were be adequately manned.— be adequately manned. they say, peter, the — be adequately manned. they say, peter, the review _ be adequately manned. they say, peter, the review is _ be adequately manned. they say, peter, the review is under- be adequately manned. they say, peter, the review is under way. i be adequately manned. they say, | peter, the review is under way. it's a 30 day review, they'll hope to ensure clarity and transparency and proper timely notifications being made to the president in the future, but this is not a time when you want your defence secretary out of the picture. if you think about the general deployments around the globe at the moment, what's going on in a rack, the navy and the red sea, the situation on the northern border of israel, and you've got a guy who, you know, fortunately has —— unfortunately has a setback in his health that nobody knows. i agree, it's a very dangerous _ health that nobody knows. i agree, it's a very dangerous moment - health that nobody knows. i agree, it's a very dangerous moment in i health that nobody knows. i agree, | it's a very dangerous moment in the world, _ it's a very dangerous moment in the world, and _ it's a very dangerous moment in the world, and you've got the word in ukraine — world, and you've got the word in ukraine. american forces on alert around _ ukraine. american forces on alert around the — ukraine. american forces on alert around the world, facing danger, and the secretary of defence like the british— the secretary of defence like the british secretary of state here is very much— british secretary of state here is

very much in the chain of command, very much in the chain of command, very close _ very much in the chain of command, very close to — very much in the chain of command, very close to the president, the presents— very close to the president, the present's closest adviser in many ways— present's closest adviser in many ways on— present's closest adviser in many ways on defence issues, so it is extraordinary that the president wasn't _ extraordinary that the president wasn't told and now we have a very detailed _ wasn't told and now we have a very detailed statement after the event of the _ detailed statement after the event of the treatment that general austin has been _ of the treatment that general austin has been having. in a way there's not enough — has been having. in a way there's not enough transparency before and now a _ not enough transparency before and now a great deal of it. just not enough transparency before and now a great deal of it.— now a great deal of it. just in terms of _ now a great deal of it. just in terms of communication, - now a great deal of it. just in terms of communication, in l now a great deal of it. just in - terms of communication, in terms of alleys, and we are the closest of allies. wouldn't he be expected to pick up the phone to the secretary at any moment given that they are aligned in the red sea of the mum, they are sending it to the ship to they are sending it to the ship to the red sea, how would that work? yeah, pretty much. the main operational line would be from the chief of— operational line would be from the chief of defence staff to the joint chief. _ chief of defence staff to the joint chief, joint chiefs in washington, but the _ chief, joint chiefs in washington, but the different secretaries would speak— but the different secretaries would speak often as would the prime minister— speak often as would the prime minister and the national security advisers. — minister and the national security advisers, you would expect that british— advisers, you would expect that british defence secretary to be able

to talk— british defence secretary to be able to talk to _ british defence secretary to be able to talk to lloyd austin and his deputy— to talk to lloyd austin and his deputy if— to talk to lloyd austin and his deputy if he passed his authorities to his _ deputy if he passed his authorities to his deputy, and the in theory if he wasn't — to his deputy, and the in theory if he wasn't enabled to operationally charge _ he wasn't enabled to operationally charge, any day of the week. we�*ll charge, any day of the week. we'll watch the fallout _ charge, any day of the week. we'll watch the fallout from _ charge, any day of the week. we'll watch the fallout from that, - charge, any day of the week. vii watch the fallout from that, no doubt there will be plenty more, you're watching bbc news, disable us. let's look at some other stories making news. new figures show, retail sales increased byjust i.7% across the uk in december — significantly lower than the 6.9% rise in 2022. the british retail consortium says, shoppers held back on their festive spending due to a lack of confidence in the economy. the group warned shoppers and retailers of a "challenging" year ahead. the insurance firm admiral says, pothole—related claims soared last year. they say customers made 40% more claims for pothole damage in 2023, at an average cost of over 3000 pounds per claim. at an average cost of

over £3000 per claim. higher—tech vehicles and a general rise in the price of repairs, is thought to be behind the spike. a double—decker bus in kirkcaldy lost control yesterday, amid freezing rain, sending it crashing into parked cars, before coming to a stop against a garden wall. it had been on its way to a local primary school. luckily no passengers were onboard and no—one was injured. you're live with bbc news. if a president were to order seal team six to assassinate a political rival, is he liable to criminal prosecution? what if he handed classified documents to the enemy? some of the arguments considered today by the federal appeals court in washington dc. the three presiding jurists expressed some scepticism today that the executive branch was immune from all prosecution. in this case, the question is whether donald trump was working to overturn the 2020 elections, and whether the actions he took were within his scope, as the commander in chief. the decision will go a long way in determining the timing of the three other criminal trials

that mr trump is facing in the months ahead. after the trial, the former president gave us his own verdict on what he had witnessed in court. i think they feel this is the way they're going to try and win, and that's not the way it goes. it'll be bedlam in the country — it's a very bad thing, it's a very bad precedent. as we said, it's the opening of a pandora's box and that's a very, a very sad thing that's happened with this whole situation. when they talk about threat to democracy, that's your real threat to democracy, and ifeel that as a president, you have to have immunity, very simple. and if you don't, as an example — if this case were lost on immunity, and i did nothing wrong. if you look at the polling, 64% of

us adults say donald trump should not have immunity. it goes beyond him. clearly there are supporters of donald trump and the cases he's facing, but on the broader issue of whether a president should have immunity, where do you stand? yeah, it's a very thorny _ immunity, where do you stand? yeah, it's a very thorny issue _ immunity, where do you stand? yeah, it's a very thorny issue and _ immunity, where do you stand? yeah, it's a very thorny issue and i'm - immunity, where do you stand? yeah, it's a very thorny issue and i'm not - it's a very thorny issue and i'm not a lawyer so i can't really speak to the legal issues here. i do think in a way, both sides have a point. president trump has a point that where do you draw the line once you've opened this possibility? and the other side says if there is no line, if there is no culpability for the president, that can also be taken to an extreme. and so my hope would be that this case is resolved in a way that creates the guidelines and parameters for this going forward because i do think the sort of weaponisation of our department of weaponisation of our department ofjustice has been lamentable over the past year, and i think there's a

very strong sense among americans that if you're going to beat donald trump you better do it at the ballot box and these legal measures are becoming really extremes. i wonder if the supreme _ becoming really extremes. i wonder if the supreme court _ becoming really extremes. i wonder if the supreme court will— becoming really extremes. i wonder if the supreme court will pick - becoming really extremes. i wonder if the supreme court will pick it - if the supreme court will pick it up, given their low standing at the moment would they want to intervene in this? you could argue that it's an unsettled argument and an important one that the supreme court should have to weigh in on, given its an election year it's extremely it's an election year it's extremely divisive. ., �* , , ., �* divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to, divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to. but _ divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to, but they _ divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to, but they may _ divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to, but they may have - divisive. no, i'm sure they won't want to, but they may have to. i divisive. no, i'm sure they won't i want to, but they may have to. as with the ballot case that they are going to take up in early february, that they understand as unpleasant as it may be and as difficult as it may become a part of their function is to resolve these disputes. and so, the sooner we do have some kind of resolution like that, you know, we're going to have to proceed into this election year. we're starting to caucuses next week. so we need to get this resolved so we can have a clean, fair election. it’s

clean, fair election. it's interesting, _ clean, fair election. it's interesting, peter, - clean, fair election. it's interesting, peter, that other countries have problems with this concept before that a president can be held criminally responsible. you and i know from our time in france, again another republic, they came to the conclusion that no one was above the conclusion that no one was above the president was prosecuted for crimes while in office. flan the president was prosecuted for crimes while in office.— the president was prosecuted for crimes while in office. can you have immunity without _ crimes while in office. can you have immunity without complete - crimes while in office. can you have i immunity without complete impunity? a president able to do absolutely anything — a president able to do absolutely anything and nobody would be able to prevent _ anything and nobody would be able to prevent him or her. as you say, and france i_ prevent him or her. as you say, and france ithink— prevent him or her. as you say, and france, i think when you're in office — france, i think when you're in office pretty much it's in immunity. but as— office pretty much it's in immunity. but as soon— office pretty much it's in immunity. but as soon as you are out of office — but as soon as you are out of office, ex—presidents are pursued, you know. — office, ex—presidents are pursued, you know, pretty much systematically these _ you know, pretty much systematically these days _ you know, pretty much systematically these days. and i suspect the supreme _ these days. and i suspect the supreme court, if they can possibly find a _ supreme court, if they can possibly find a way— supreme court, if they can possibly find a way of avoiding a black or white _ find a way of avoiding a black or white yes— find a way of avoiding a black or white yes or no ruling, they will do so. white yes or no ruling, they will do so because — white yes or no ruling, they will do so. because either finding that he does _ so. because either finding that he does or— so. because either finding that he does or does not have complete immunity— does or does not have complete immunity is a very, very escalatory

thing _ immunity is a very, very escalatory thing to— immunity is a very, very escalatory thing to do. — immunity is a very, very escalatory thing to do, it will trigger and a more _ thing to do, it will trigger and a more mass _ thing to do, it will trigger and a more mass amount of controversy. people — more mass amount of controversy. people will _ more mass amount of controversy. people will be looking for legal technology that can avoid a clear-cut _ technology that can avoid a clear—cut decision. he technology that can avoid a clear-cut decision. he opted to be in court today- _ it shows the gap between trump and haley in the single digits, with the former president at 39% support among likely gop primary voters and the former un ambassador at 32%. what it shows is, donald trump is very strong against conservatives, but she has a lot of favour among moderates and independents. it generally happens in a primary that you have the field narrowing the four for the end, you have the field narrowing the fourfor the end, i think four for the end, i think overall the former president's lead is pretty substantial at this point.

including ambassador haley's home state of south carolina. certainly if she does well in iowa, if she wins new hampshire which is certainly possible from the pole, i think you'll have a lot of people giving her a second look and she will have earned it. riff giving her a second look and she will have earned it.— giving her a second look and she will have earned it. of course we'll have to watch _ will have earned it. of course we'll have to watch the _ will have earned it. of course we'll have to watch the polls _ will have earned it. of course we'll have to watch the polls in - will have earned it. of course we'll have to watch the polls in the - have to watch the polls in the coming days, it tends to be when he appears in court donald trump's polling improves, that is perhaps what he was in washington, dc today instead of iowa. we're going to talk a little more about ecuador, a serious situation there tonight, and also climate, 2023, the hottest on record. don't go away, we'll be right back. hello there. tuesday was another cold but much sunnier day for the vast majority of the country. however, there were a few areas that saw some snow, like here injersey and the channel islands. also saw some across south—west england, for example, around bodmin moor and some across the far north of scotland, around the murray coast. still have something of a hangover, though, from the very wet weather of last week.

there are still 100 flood warnings in place with some communities still badly affected. satellite picture shows much sunnier weather then across the bulk of the country. we do have some thicker clouds just working in across the far north of scotland, and that's starting to bring a little bit of drizzle in. and as we go through this evening and overnight, the cloud across the north sea is going to thicken. so it will turn damp for these areas with drizzle becoming a bit more extensive. otherwise, it's cold and frosty with a threat of some icy stretches on roads and pavements as we head into wednesday morning. now, wednesday, that thicker cloud around across east scotland, eastern england, will be bringing some damp weather. you might find an odd spot going across north—west england and eastern counties of northern ireland. best of the sunshine, southern wales parts the south midlands, east anglia, southern parts of england. probably not too bad though for western scotland as well. wherever you are it will continue to be cold for the time of year with temperatures give or take around about six celsius. now heading into thursday, the same area of high pressure is still dominating the weather picture, but it's changing

orientation and so, too, are the winds — north—easterly winds this time bringing the cloud in and moving it further southwards. so the sunshine becoming a bit more limited to the far south of england. bright skies again across north western areas. the cloud, a little bit thinner, so there should be less in the way of drizzle for east scotland and around those eastern coastal areas of england. beyond that, through friday and the weekend, the weather pattern stays pretty quiet, really. some mist and fog patches around a bit of frost, cloud varying but mostly dry with some bright or sunny spells. however, into next week, for those of you who like wintry weather, we get a blast of northerly winds moving in. definitely with snow showers returning to northern areas. we could see an atlantic weather system move into that cold air and that could bring a more widespread area of disruptive snow. so we're pretty certain that snow showers will be across the north coming right down to low levels. question mark as to whether we see that atlantic system bringing a zone of more disruptive snow, but keep in touch with the forecast.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. this hour, armed men have stormed a life tv programme in ecuador a day after the president declared a state of emergency to tackle prison riots. —— a live tv programme.

welcome back. scientists have confirmed today that 2023 was the hottest on record. not only was the average temperature hotter than any year since 1850, but each month from june to december was hotter than its equivalent in any previous year. overall, it leaves the global average temperature at 1.48 degrees higher than pre—industrial times, and that is perilously close to the one and a half degree limit the world set itself to avoid the worst effects of global warming, some of which have already been felt. it should be said that some of these temperature rises will be attributed to the phenomenon known as el nino, where the warmer surface waters in the east pacific ocean release additional heat into the atmosphere. what we don't know is what the global temperatures will look like when that el nino effect comes to an end. let's speak to simon gosling, professor of climate risks at the university of nottingham.

simon, is good to see